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About 26.5 million may grapple with food insecurity in 2024- Report

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About 26.5 million may grapple with food insecurity in 2024- Report

By: Michael Mike

About 26.5 million Nigerians may grapple with high level of food insecurity in 2024, according to 2023 Cadre Harmonisé analysis on food insecurity.

This figure was released by the Government of Nigeria and its partners during the unveiling of the October 2023 Cadre Harmonisé analysis on food insecurity.

Also, approximately 9 million children are at risk of suffering from acute malnutrition or wasting. Of these, an alarming 2.6 million children could face Severe Acute Malnutrition (SAM) and require critical nutrition treatment.

The Cadre Harmonisé, an initiative focused on food and nutrition analysis, conducts studies biannually (in March and October) across 26 states and the Federal Capital Territory (FCT). With the Government’s leadership and the United Nations (UN) system’s support, the latest projection for 2024 indicates a sharp rise from the 18.6 million people currently vulnerable to food insecurity from October to December 2023.

According to the report, several factors are driving this trend, including ongoing conflicts, climate change impacts, escalating inflation, and rising costs of both food and essential non-food commodities (in part due to the devaluation of the naira and the discontinuation of the fuel subsidy), adding that persistent violence in the north-eastern states of Borno, Adamawa, and Yobe (BAY) hinders food availability and access, with additionally, armed banditry and kidnappings in northwest and north-central states, including Katsina, Sokoto, Kaduna, Benue, and Niger, exacerbate the prevailing economic struggles.

According to a joint press statement on Friday by the World Food Programme, FAO, UNICEF, the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs and the Federal Ministry of Agriculture and Food Security, Dr. Ernest Umakhihe, the Permanent Secretary of the Federal Ministry of Agriculture and Food Security, underscored the significance of the Cadre Harmonisé during a presentation in Abuja.

Represented by Mrs. Fausat Lawal, Director of Special Duties, Umekhihe highlighted that despite Government efforts, external challenges like the ongoing global economic effects of COVID-19 and the Russia-Ukraine war, which disrupts food systems, persist.

Of the 18.6 million people who experience food insecurity today, 3.3 million live in the northeastern states of the BAY region. This number might rise to 26.5 million nationwide by the height of the 2024 lean season ( and to 4.4 million in the BAY states) if immediate action is not taken.

The FAO Representative ad interim in Nigeria and to ECOWAS, Dominique Koffy Kouacou, while calling on the Government to expand CH coverage to the remaining 10 states said, FAO would continue to support the Government and the people of Nigeria to overcome food insecurity and malnutrition.

He stated that: “In 2024, alongside our partners, FAO’s focus will be on agrifood systems transformation with deliberate attention on resilience-building, nutrition-sensitive agriculture, livestock, fisheries, and providing extension services.”

The Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) reported that floods in October 2023 in Adamawa impacted around 8,500 households, leading to mass displacements, particularly among women, children, and the elderly. Such extreme weather patterns, linked to the El Niño phenomenon, are further undermining food security.

“Food insecurity and malnutrition are among the main drivers of humanitarian need in the BAY states,” said the head of OCHA in Nigeria, Mr. Trond Jensen.

“People have been forced to adopt negative coping mechanisms such as survival sex and child labour to stay alive. Over the past year, dozens of farmers have lost their lives, and others have been abducted or injured while eking out a living outside the security perimeters of Borno’s garrison towns due to limited farming lands and few or no livelihood options.”

UNICEF’s Country Representative, Ms. Cristian Munduate, emphasized the urgent need for action. She said, “Every child deserves proper nutrition and a life free from hunger. It’s not merely a responsibility but a moral duty for governments and the global community to ensure these rights are upheld.”

Highlighting the long-standing issue, WFP’s Country Representative, David Stevenson,said: “The hunger crisis in Nigeria, fueled by the ongoing conflict in the northeast, needs urgent addressing. Restoring peace in the northeast is critical for us to build pathways to production and achieve the northeast’s potential as the food basket of the country”.

Trend analysis for the northeastern states indicates consistently high or rising food insecurity levels since 2018. Over 4 million people have needed urgent assistance annually since June 2020.

The United Nations urges the Nigerian Government, donors, and stakeholders to commit resources and implement measures to avert a potential food and nutrition disaster, emphasizing the need for immediate support across the nation.

The Cadre Harmonisé analysis covered 26 of Nigeria’s 36 states, including the FCT. It represents a collaborative effort led by the Nigerian government, in association with regional technical agencies, UN bodies, and NGOs. The Cadre Harmonisé serves as a comprehensive tool to evaluate present and future food and nutrition scenarios.

About 26.5 million may grapple with food insecurity in 2024- Report

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ISWAP’s acknowledgement of commander’s death highlights gains by troops, cracks within insurgent ranks

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ISWAP’s acknowledgement of commander’s death highlights gains by troops, cracks within insurgent ranks

By: Zagazola Makama

Fresh intelligence indicating that the Islamic State West Africa Province (ISWAP) has internally acknowledged the death of one of its senior commanders killed by Nigerian troops has provided a rare insight into the impact of recent military operations in the North-East.

The insurgent commander, identified as Modu Kundiri, served as the Qa’id (camp commander) of ISWAP’s Pulka axis in Gwoza Local Government Area of Borno State, a strategic location close to the border with Adamawa State and the Sambisa Forest corridor.

Intelligence sources told Zagazola Makama that Kundiri was neutralised during recent military operation along the Madagali–Gwoza axis, an area that has remained a critical operational corridor for insurgent movements between Borno and Adamawa.

What makes the development particularly significant is that the confirmation of his death did not come through official propaganda channels of the insurgent group but through intercepted communications among ISWAP members themselves.

According to intelligence obtained on March 11, a conversation between an insurgent identified as Abubakar, who was using Kundiri’s GSM line from a location opposite Pulka Market, and an associate named Fatima in Gonidamgari area of Maiduguri, revealed that the commander had been killed by military troops during the operation. Such internal acknowledgements often provide a clearer picture of battlefield realities than propaganda statements, which insurgent groups frequently manipulate to project strength.

Before his death, Kundiri was reportedly involved in coordinating or participating in several attacks across multiple local government areas in Borno and Adamawa states. These included operations in Gwoza, Askira/Uba, Bama and Konduga LGAs in Borno State, as well as Madagali LGA in Adamawa State.

Security sources say his operational reach across several LGAs reflected his familiarity with the terrain and his ability to coordinate movements along the rugged border areas linking Sambisa Forest to northern Adamawa.

His influence within the insurgent hierarchy had recently increased after he was reportedly elevated to senior command by Mallam Ba’ana Chingori, a prominent ISWAP figure believed to be operating within the Sambisa Forest enclave and Timbuktu Triangle.

The appointment placed Kundiri in charge of coordinating insurgent activities in the Pulka axis, an area frequently targeted by troops because of its strategic importance to insurgent logistics and movement.

The loss of such a commander could temporarily disrupt ISWAP’s operational coordination in the southern Borno corridor.
Field commanders like Kundiri typically serve as the link between strategic leadership in forest enclaves and operational cells responsible for attacks, recruitment and logistics.

“When such commanders are eliminated, it often creates a short-term vacuum in the command structure,” a counter-insurgency analyst said. However, insurgent organisations often attempt to quickly fill these gaps to maintain continuity.

Evidence of such attempts may already be emerging. Intelligence sources noted that the GSM line previously used by Kundiri is now being operated by another ISWAP member. This could be an attempt by the group to conceal the commander’s death temporarily or maintain communication channels within the network to avoid operational disruption.

Such tactics are common among insurgent groups trying to prevent panic or confusion among fighters following the loss of key leaders.

ISWAP’s acknowledgement of commander’s death highlights gains by troops, cracks within insurgent ranks

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Operation Hadin Kai debunks Fake news on ISWAP enclave in Tuba, Jere in Borno

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Operation Hadin Kai debunks Fake news on ISWAP enclave in Tuba, Jere in Borno

By: Zagazola Makama

Reports circulating online claiming that Boko Haram and ISWAP insurgents have established a new enclave in Tuba, Jere Local Government Area, have been strongly condemned by military sources in Operation HADIN KAI, describing the claims as false, misleading, and deliberately designed to spread fear.

According to the sources, recent operations conducted by troops of 212 Battalion, Operation HADIN KAI, across Tuba and surrounding areas including Dusuman, Jabarmari, Gongulong, Ngom, and along the Maiduguri-Monguno and Maiduguri-Mafa highways, found no evidence of any terrorist enclave, concentration, or movement as claimed in the reports.

The military sources expressed outrage over the circulation of such unverified stories, noting that some media platforms appear to be serving interests contrary to national security and public safety. “These claims are false, sensational, and do not reflect the reality on the ground,” the sources said.

They pointed to previous instances of deliberate exaggeration, where some outlets reported that 40 or even 100 soldiers were killed during attacks in Konduga figures that were never corroborated by even the insurgents themselves. Another example cited involved reports claiming Boko Haram had taken over Ngoshe, only for videos of troops firmly securing the area to emerge, exposing the lies. Despite this, some media still went ahead to report that Army has recaptured Ngoshe without providing further details of how the Operation tool place.

“Who are these media outlets serving?” the military sources demanded. “Are they advancing national or public interest, or are they actively trying to support the terrorists to disintegrate the country through fake narratives?”

While acknowledging operational challenges in the theatre, the military sources emphasized that troops continue to maintain operational dominance, safeguard residents, and protect highways and strategic installations across the North East region.

In other countries, citizens rally around their military to support them in countering violent extremism. Hardly will you find active citizens working as though they are tool of terrorists propaganda. They warned that unverified reports undermine troop morale, endanger civilians, and distort public perception of ongoing security efforts in the country.

Journalists and media platforms were urged to exercise professionalism, verify facts before publication, and avoid being used as instruments of destabilisation. Residents were advised to rely only on credible sources and report suspicious activities to security agencies.

The military remains committed to defeating terrorism, ensuring stability in Borno State and the broader North-East, and will not be distracted or demoralized by falsehoods masquerading as news.

Operation Hadin Kai debunks Fake news on ISWAP enclave in Tuba, Jere in Borno

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Fresh tension in ISWAP camps as top commander Modu Kunduli neutralised by troops in Borno

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Fresh tension in ISWAP camps as top commander Modu Kunduli neutralised by troops in Borno

By: Zagazola Makama

Fresh tension and anxiety have gripped Islamic State West Africa Province (ISWAP) camps following the neutralisation of one of its top commanders, Modu Kunduli, by troops of Operation HADIN KAI during a failed assault on the Army Forward Operation Base in Mayanti village, Bama Local Government Area of Borno State.

Sources say the late commander met his end during a last week’s failed mission targeting the Army Forward Operation Base at Mayanti village. His death is expected to create a significant leadership vacuum within ISWAP, particularly in Sambisa Forest, given his mastery of local terrain and fluency in Fulfulde, Kanuri, and Marghi.

Zagazola report that Kunduli, a high-profile ISWAP commander, had been orchestrating attacks across Borno and Adamawa states for the past ten years, dating back to the era of Boko Haram founder Abubakar Shekau. He joined ISWAP shortly after the death of Shekau in 2021z

He was notorious for terrorising communities in Askira Uba Local Government Area, including Lassa, Multaku, Uvu, Wamdeo, and Ruimirgo villages. Reports also indicate his involvement in attacks on Vita, Yamtage, Izge, Pulka, Warabe, Limankara, and Ubawa villages in Gwoza Local Government Area.

Beyond Borno, Kunduli held operational control over Galta, a border community linking Adamawa and Borno states, overseeing large swathes of territory in Madagali and Michika Local Government Areas of Adamawa. His deep knowledge of the Sambisa Forest terrain, coupled with his leadership capabilities, earned him the command of several ISWAP branches across the region.

Zagazola note that Kunduli’s elimination represents a major blow to ISWAP’s operational capabilities in the north-east, disrupting the group’s command structure and its ability to coordinate attacks across Borno and Adamawa states.

Troops of Operation HADIN KAI continue to exploit the area and maintain aggressive patrols to prevent remaining insurgents from regrouping.

Military sources have assured residents that the offensive will continue until the remnants of the terrorist group are decisively neutralised.

Fresh tension in ISWAP camps as top commander Modu Kunduli neutralised by troops in Borno

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