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Navigating Africa’s Turbulent Waters: Resurgent Coups and the Shadowy World of PMCs
Navigating Africa’s Turbulent Waters: Resurgent Coups and the Shadowy World of PMCs
By: Senator Iroegbu, Gift Wada and the Global Sentinel team
The 3rd edition of Geopolitics Series, themed: “Resurgent Coups, Private Military Companies (PMCs), and the Eroding Influence of Inter-Governmental Organisations (IGOs),” illuminated critical global issues as they affect Africa. Senator Iroegbu, Gift Wada and the Global Sentinel team in this article, highlighted the discussions and insights from GS3.0, which underscored the complex dynamics shaping modern conflicts, emphasising the importance of addressing root causes, promoting local solutions, and reevaluating the role of powerful states in geopolitical affairs.
Overview In recent years, Africa has experienced a disconcerting resurgence of coups, with notable incidents in Egypt (2013), Burkina Faso (2015 and 2022), Zimbabwe (2017), Sudan (2019 and 2021), Mali (2020), Chad (2021), Guinea (2021), Niger (2023), and Gabon (2023). These events underscore the pressing demand for transformative leadership. This troubling pattern has emerged in the context of governance challenges, corruption, economic difficulties, and security concerns that have precipitated military interventions in several African nations.During the Geopolitics Series 3.0, experts delved into the complexities of civic support for coups, recognising the need for a nuanced examination of public sentiment and the intricate social and political dynamics at play. The theme of the series, “Resurgent Coups, Private Military Companies, and the Eroding Influence of Inter-Governmental Organisations,” shed light on the latest coup trends in Africa and the apparent legitimacy that some of these military takeovers seem to garnerThe Station Manager of West Africa Democracy Radio (WADR), Mrs. Agnes John-Thomasi, highlighted that coups often undermine democratic principles, resulting in human rights abuses, disregard for the rule of law, economic stagnation, and instability.
Surprisingly, there seems to be civic support for coups in recent times, which she attributes to a complex mix of social, political, economic, and historical factors. John-Thomasi pointed out that the widespread corruption, electoral fraud, and leaders’ disregard for term limits contribute to dissatisfaction with civilian governments. Additionally, security challenges caused by groups like Boko Haram, Islamic State and Al-Qaeda in the Sahel region have eroded public trust, leading people to turn to the military for solutions. The failure of civilian governments to address these challenges has fueled the narrative that military intervention is a viable alternative. One central issue is the lack of accountability in many African governments–a pointer that weak institutions and a lack of consequences for those in power have left citizens frustrated. The absence of press freedom and attacks on media institutions also contribute to support for coups.
This has been particularly evident in West Africa, which has a history of coups as a means to end conflicts or address governance issues.Also highlighted is the fact that the PMCs have played a controversial role in this dynamic. PMCs have filled security gaps, providing services ranging from training to military operations. However, their unregulated nature and associations with human rights abuses have raised concerns.It was on this premise that an Indian Army veteran, Maj-Gen. AK Bardalai (rtd), explained that PMCs operate in a gray area, as they often act on behalf of state actors. According to him, they have been both a force for stability and instability, depending on their employment. Bardalai noted that the lack of international legislation to regulate PMCs and reluctance from states to employ them further complicates matters.
Similarly, the Director-General of the Institute for Peace and Conflict Resolution (IPCR), Dr. Joseph Ochogwu, asserted that some PMCs are involved in manufacturing military hardware, while others engage in direct combat. The absence of convictions under international humanitarian law has allowed PMCs to operate with impunity.On his part, the Special adviser to the Executive Director of the Open Society Foundation-Africa in charge of the Africa Union Advocacy, Mr. Ibrahim Kane, shed light on the complexities of the Sahel region’s conflicts, suggesting that they are rooted in historical inequalities, climate change, and control over natural resources. Kane criticised the media for misrepresenting these crises.
He highlighted that foreign countries involved in counter-terrorism often pursue their interests, leading to a disconnect between their objectives and regional stability.Accordingly, the President of the White Ink Institute for Strategy Education and Research (WISER), Brig-Gen. Saleh Bala (rtd), shared the perspective that democracy is faltering due to the absence of accountability and transparency in civilian administrations. Bala highlighted that military interventions are occasionally viewed as a counterweight to the actions of African leaders. However, he cautioned that without a shift in their behaviour, these interventions might intensify the existing unrest.At the same time, the Founder of Scutarii Advisory, Mr. Hilly Cookey-Gam’s conclusion underlined the prevalence of foreign interference and covert operations in today’s geopolitical scenario. Cookey-Gam pointed out that at times, influential nations are either indirectly or directly linked to coup attempts.
He highlighted that these situations occur because of the fragmented response from the international community, as evident in recent coup endeavors.In the end, however, the guest speakers who are renowned professionals and experts in their fields, all agreed that in the face of these challenges, it is essential to pursue locally crafted solutions. They stressed that while foreign interventions persist, regional organisations like ECOWAS must assert their influence and prioritize the interests of the African continent over those of external actors.It is to this end, that the Geopolitics Series continues to serve as a vital platform for exploring global issues and their impact on Africa, fostering a deeper understanding of the continent’s evolving role in international affairs.
According to the Convener, Senator Iroegbu, this underscores the urgency of addressing the root causes of conflicts to achieve lasting peace in Africa.Rising coups call for revolutionary leadership in AfricaThe resurgence of coup d’état incidents across Africa has drawn attention to the pressing need for revolutionary leadership in the continent. Recent events, including the coup in Gabon, just a month after a military takeover in the Niger Republic, and the two coups in Burkina Faso in 2022 as well as Mali, along with failed attempts in Guinea Bissau, The Gambia, and Sao Tome and Principe, underline the gravity of the situation.Agnes John-Thomasi, the Station Manager of West Africa Democracy Radio, offered insights into this concerning trend. She reiterated that Africa’s persistent challenges, ranging from bad governance to corruption, economic hardships, and security threats, have created an environment conducive to military takeovers.”The greed of leaders at the expense of the nation, politics marred by ethnicity and religion, the incessant disregard for the rule of law, economic hardship such as inflation, high unemployment rates, and poverty that is deeply affecting the majority of the populace are contributory factors leading to dissatisfaction with civilian governments,” she explained.
John-Thomasi opined that military takeovers are gradually gaining legitimacy in Africa owing to defaults in the system of government. She deplored the fact that most African countries report high levels of corruption and mismanagement of state resources and this, she noted, has eroded public trust in the supposed “government of the people by the people and for the people.”She acknowledged that while coups may sometimes seem to gain civic support, they often undermine democracy and the rule of law. The perplexing support for coups in recent times begs the question of its underlying factors, which she suggests could be influenced by a variety of complex elements.She said: “Consequently, it is evident that like in other regions public support could be influenced by a complex mix of social, political, economic, and historical factors.”“It is pertinent to state here that coups often undermine democratic principles and, in most cases, can lead to human rights abuses, total disregard for the rule of law, economic stagnation (because of sanctions that might follow), and instability in our countries.
This notwithstanding, it is evident that there is civic support for coups most especially in recent times. Why is this so? This could be influenced by a variety of factors,” John-Thomasi argued.According to her, the resurgence of coup incidents serves as a stark reminder of the critical need for transformative and revolutionary leadership in Africa. She insisted that addressing the root causes of discontent, promoting good governance, and fostering economic stability are vital steps towards steering the continent away from the troubling cycle of coups and instability.The Dakar, Senegal-based WADR Manager, noted that in addition to these factors, the suppression of press freedom and attacks on media institutions and journalists, who have the power to shape public opinion, have contributed to public discontent. The media professional also stressed the significance of accountability as a central issue driving these reactions to coups.
Many feel that civilian leaders are shielded from the consequences of their actions, further fueling support for military intervention as a means of holding them accountable.She concluded by pointing out the urgent need to proactively address governance issues in Africa, stating; “Coups can lead to disruptions to democratic processes, and long-term instability rather than bringing about the desired change. This is why there is an urgent need to look at the governance system in West Africa. This is why ECOWAS; AU and the international community should be active in checking the effectiveness of the governance structures and systems rather than rising after the damage is done.
The media executive stressed: “Fighting against coups should be a last resort, working on ensuring that the governments are accountable, elections are free and fair from campaigning to the ballot box and counting, term limits are respected and the socio-economic situation of the countries are growing and blooming is what these institutions should be working on amongst many others.”Speaking, the President of the White Ink Institute for Strategy Education and Research (WISER), Brig-Gen. Saleh Bala (rtd), echoed the sentiment that democracy is faltering due to the lack of accountability and transparency in civilian governments.According to Bala “the only true guardians of democracy are the civilians, for the very essence of democratic philosophy grants them an exclusive mandate. “It is a paradox, yet a stark reminder that the worst form of civil democracy surpasses the best civilian rule, challenging our moral perceptions.
The military veteran urged the stakeholders to explore “deeper into the realm of morality and question the hierarchy of human life within the context of democracy, a concept deeply rooted in history since its ancient origins.”He stressed that military interventions are, in some cases, viewed as checks against the actions of African leaders. However, he cautioned that as long as leaders in the region continue to act in certain ways, these interventions may lead to further chaos.The former Chief of Infantry Corps, Nigeria Army noted: “…the responsibility for resolving a nation’s internal issues lies squarely within that nation’s borders, in compliance with international laws, protocols, and principles upheld by the international community. International organisations play a vital role in overseeing good governance, the rule of law, and human rights practices among their member states. “We have heard of the AU Principle, which envisions the Council of the Wise and peer reviews, but we have yet to witness the presidents of nations taking action against abusive governance, extending presidential terms, and violating democratic principles within the continent. True civilian-led sovereign states must uphold constitutionality, and sanctions should be imposed when this isn’t achieved.”
PMCs: Navigating the role of stability and instabilityThe security landscape in West Africa has also played a pivotal role in driving support for military interventions. The region grapples with severe security challenges, including the presence of militant groups such as Boko Haram/ISIS in Nigeria, Al-Qaeda in the Sahel, Jama al Nasr al Islam Wal Muslimin (JNIM) in Mali, and branches of the Islamic State (IS) operating in Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger. Additionally, armed rebel movements in northern Mali, like the Coordination of Azawad Movement (CMA), have further destabilised the region. The inability of civil governments to effectively combat terrorism has prompted many to turn to the military for solutions.Historically, West Africa has witnessed a cycle of coups and counter-coups, often employed as tools to resolve conflicts or address governance issues. The struggle for leadership and attempts to cling to power beyond prescribed term limits have led to disillusionment among the populace, driving some to either rise or support military takeovers as an alternative.
Speaking on the topic: “PMCs and Contemporary Conflicts: Actors of Stability or Instability,” Maj-Gen. AK Bardalai (rtd), Distinguished Fellow at the United Service Institution of India (USI), explained the multifaceted roles played by PMCs in today’s conflicts. Bardalai amplified the fact that PMCs have historically addressed security gaps in various countries, dating back to the 15th century.He noted that PMCs serve a range of functions, from providing training and advisory services to offering logistical support, intelligence acquisition, static guarding, personal protection, and even participating in military operations independently or alongside host country security forces. However, Bardalai underscored a significant challenge: the absence of internationally accepted legislation to regulate PMCs due to the reluctance of both employing and providing states to establish such regulations.
Consequently, the impact of PMCs on stability or instability hinges on their deployment.Bardalai who was a former Infantry Commander and UN Military Observer in Angola, cited historical examples, such as Executive Outcomes’ (EO) involvement in Angola during the civil war and the utilisation of South African mercenaries by the Nigerian government to combat Boko Haram in 2014. African nations, he noted, including Nigeria, have continued to enlist PMCs for training and security purposes. Notable instances include collaborations with Starter Point Integrated Services (SPIS) and Israeli firm HLSI Security System and Technology Limited.Despite their contributions, Bardalai stated that the PMCs face persistent allegations of human rights violations and violations of International Humanitarian Law (IHL).
These allegations often go unaddressed due to a lack of compelling evidence and a dearth of binding regulations compelling PMCs to adhere to established norms while operating in foreign territories. The military veteran highlighted instances of PMCs’ involvement in human rights violations in the Central African Republic (CAR), Angola, Sierra Leone, and Mali, bringing renewed global attention to the risks posed by unregulated PMCs.One of the most notorious examples of PMCs misconduct is the Nassour Square massacre in Baghdad, perpetrated by Blackwater employees. This incident resulted in the death of 17 Iraqi civilians and injury to 20 others. Four Blackwater employees were convicted in the United States, only to be pardoned by President Donald Trump on December 22, 2020.
Bardalai concluded by arguing that while PMCs may contribute to stability in some cases, the odds are stacked against them being agents of stability. To change this equation, he called for the commitment of member states and the UN to achieving sustainable peace in conflict zones. Additionally, he said, host states must focus on security sector reform to reduce their reliance on PMCs. The international community should address these challenges proactively to preserve international peace and security.”Despite any positive contributions on the part of the PMC to maintain stability, the odds are so heavy that the PMC is an actor more for instability and less for stability. This equation can change if member states, and the UN are serious in their commitment to find sustainable peace in the conflict zone. On the other hand, the host states with capacity gaps are committed to security sector reform, and a situation wherein the host states are forced to employ PMC would not arise. Since security sector reform is a sensitive subject and is seen as intrusive, it seems that the international community would continue to grapple with the challenges that face its core objective for some time,” said Bardalai who was the Deputy Head of the Mission and Deputy Force Commander in UNIFIL (Lebanon) from 2008 to 2010.
In the same vein, the Director-General of the Institute for Peace and Conflict Resolution (IPCR), Nigeria, Dr. Joseph Ochogwu, offered valuable insights into the role of PMCs. He reinforced that PMCs operate with state support and are not independent entities. Ochogwu raised concerns about PMCs being employed not only for national security but also for regime protection and occasionally to undermine traditional state powers.Ochogwu differentiated between private security companies, which provide security services and protection, and private military companies, which engage in direct military combat. He noted that machine-terrorism activities, common in developing societies like Africa due to resource extraction issues, often involve PMCs.He underscored the difficulty of convicting PMCs under international humanitarian law and laws of war due to their status as private entities. Consequently, they have become tools not only for state security but also for regime preservation and the erosion of traditional state powers. Ochogwu also highlighted that the limitations on the use of nuclear weapons have made PMCs an alternative tool for warfare.Ochogwu pointed out that the governance deficit in Africa, with leaders attempting to maintain power contrary to democratic principles, reinforces the role of PMCs on the continent.
He emphasised that these profit-driven private military companies generate revenue through mineral concessions granted by state authorities, whether legitimate or illegitimate, which often benefit their host countries. He called for Africa to find a way out of this dilemma by addressing both the resurgence of military coups and the expanding roles of PMCs.”The excessive use of private military companies by bigger powers threatens the international system’s stability and security. Instead, we should prioritise strengthening state institutions and their military to safeguard nations, protect their people, and maintain sovereignty. Promoting private military companies undermines the relevance of states and leads to an anarchic international system, which would be detrimental to international organizations like the United Nations, the African Union, ECOWAS, and other regional bodies,” he said.In conclusion, Ochogwu stressed the need for PMC regulation to prevent a shift towards an anarchic world order and the diminishing relevance of state institutions.
He underlined the importance of promoting state institutions and military forces to protect state sovereignty and cautioned against allowing PMCs to take center stage in international affairs. Instead, he advocated viewing PMCs through the lens of state actors, as they often act as hidden hands for more powerful states.He also highlighted that in some cases, more powerful states may indirectly or directly support coups, taking advantage of global geopolitical divisions and understanding that major powers may be unable to coordinate through IGOs to counter such actions effectively.Complex nexus of PMCs, state actors, and global conflictsThe Founder of Scutarii Advisory, Mr. Hilly Cookey-Gam, delivered a thought-provoking discourse on the intricate interplay between PMCs, state actors, and intergovernmental organisations (IGOs) in shaping contemporary global conflicts.“PMCs cannot operate successfully without the support of a state actor. Rather than view the current spate of coups through the lens of mercenaries or private military companies, it is powerful state actors who utilised non-state actors to achieve strategic goals.
IGOs are therefore ineffective in the age of great power conflict, and we should expect more of such events as the struggle over the international political and economic system intensifies in the months and years to come,” Cookey-Gam noted while making the under listed points. Ambiguity of PMCs and mercenaries: Cookey-Gam commenced by addressing the ambiguity surrounding the classification of PMCs and mercenaries. He highlighted the challenge posed by the lack of operational success in curbing mercenary activities, primarily due to the absence of ratifications from Permanent UN Security Council Members, except for Italy.
The central issue revolves around differentiating PMCs from mercenaries, a task made exceedingly difficult when scrutinising key aspects of the UN mercenary convention. He emphasised the complexity of establishing criminal liability, which necessitates proving that mercenaries are driven by financial gains substantially higher than those of regular soldiers and are not citizens, residents, or official representatives of the affected state.State actors and PMC operations: Cookey-Gam delved into the symbiotic relationship between PMCs and state actors. He underscored that state actors wield significant influence over PMCs, as most of these private entities act on behalf of or in the interests of state actors.
He further underlined that “most private military companies act on behalf of or in the interest of state actors.” He cautioned that “PMCs that conduct operations independently of a powerful state actor are unlikely to do so successfully and risk being classified as a terrorist organisation by some or most states.” This highlights the pivotal role state actors play in determining the actions and success of PMCs.The case of Wagner: The case of Wagner, a Russian PMC, was highlighted to illustrate the delicate balance between PMCs and state actors. Cookey-Gam noted how the Russian government intervened to curtail Wagner’s activities when its interests were at stake. This case serves as a testament to the capacity of state actors to assert control over PMC operations when their interests are jeopardised.Successes and the lure of PMCs: Cookey-Gam acknowledged the efficiency and appeal of PMCs in accomplishing state actors’ objectives.
He cited real-world examples, such as Executive Outcomes’ successful campaign against Boko Haram in Nigeria, to demonstrate how PMCs can swiftly and cost-effectively achieve missions aligned with state interests. He noted that “actors deploy PMCs for various reasons, including their capacity to deliver results efficiently”.IGOs’ influence: Shifting his focus to intergovernmental organisations, Cookey-Gam referred to historical precedents, contending that these entities, “like the UN, the ECOWAS, and the South Africa Development Community (SADC) are less influential when great powers do not act in concert in support of resolutions and operations.”
According to him, this historical perspective underlines the complexities faced by such organisations when powerful states pursue divergent interests.Nuclear weapons and global conflict: Cookey-Gam challenged the conventional wisdom regarding the absence of a hot global war since World War II. He argued that the presence of nuclear weapons among great powers, rather than the actions of IGOs, is the primary reason for this absence. He suggested that “when a great power or a rising power or a group of powers challenge the international political system, it is near impossible for IGOs to exercise their powers or exert influence.”Challenges to the international political system: Cookey-Gam highlighted significant challenges and transformations in the international political system, including the rise of the BRICS bloc and the use of national currencies in trade.
The security expert cautioned against equating the current geopolitical landscape with the economic blocs and ideologies of the Cold War era. He invoked George Orwell’s concept of the “cold war” to describe a world divided among superpowers armed with formidable nuclear arsenals, leading to proxy wars and covert measures as they vie for influence.Foreign interference and state actors: The intelligence analyst concluded by stressing that foreign interference and covert actions define today’s geopolitical landscape. He noted, “sometimes more powerful states are not indirectly or directly involved in coups.” Military leaders, he contends, capitalise on the divided international community’s inability to respond effectively. This situation, he argues, is evidenced by the recent spate of coups.In a nutshell, Cookey-Gam stressed that PMCs depend on state actor support for successful operations. He urged stakeholders to view the current wave of coups through the lens of powerful state actors, maintaining that IGOs have limitations in an era marked by great power conflicts.
This perspective suggests the potential for more such events as global power dynamics continue to evolve.Unearthing complex causes of instability in the SahelIbrahim Kane, AU Programme Policy Head at OSF Africa Senegal, shed light on the multifaceted causes behind the crises in the Sahel region, challenging the simplistic labeling of these conflicts as mere terrorism. Kane emphasised that historical inequalities, exacerbated by severe slavery in the region, contributed significantly to the unrest. Furthermore, he identified climate change and the struggle for control over natural resources as pivotal factors fueling conflict, exemplified by the herder-farmer clashes driven by competition for grazing land and water.Kane lamented the media’s failure to accurately convey the complexities of the conflict and instability in the Sahel, which have persisted since 2010.
He criticised both regional and continental institutions for not addressing these deep-seated inequalities. He also highlighted that elites in the region have skillfully garnered support from foreign nations, using PMCs to combat so-called terrorists who are, in reality, nationals seeking recognition.Kane cautioned: “Characterising this situation as terrorism is oversimplified and can serve as a convenient label for states to garner Western support, including military aid. It’s fundamentally rooted in class and generational inequalities, particularly in a region where the majority is young, yet leadership skews much older, resulting in a conflicting relationship. Moreover, gender inequalities persist due to various factors like tradition and religion, notably in Islamic regions.”Furthermore, he pointed out the challenges posed by Western countries involved in the fight against terrorism, particularly France. He argued that these Western nations have their agendas, often driven by resource interests.
The recent crisis in Niger highlighted how foreign involvement is often more about safeguarding their interests, such as access to uranium, than protecting the Sahel nations.Kane pointed out, “A significant part of the problem in the Sahel is the self-serving agendas of Western countries engaged in the fight against terrorism. The French presence in the region, for example, isn’t primarily about protecting Mali, Burkina Faso or Niger; it is about safeguarding their interests, particularly in controlling access to resources like uranium and thwarting other nations, including China, from gaining access to these valuable assets. This highlights the complex motivations underlying external interventions in the region.”In advocating for local solutions, Kane who is a renowned rights activist, stressed the importance of strategies crafted within African countries to address the region’s specific challenges. He commended ECOWAS for its recent interventions but cautioned against heavy involvement by Western powers, as their interests may not align with the region’s needs.
He rather argued that regional organisations like ECOWAS should defend the interests of the Sahel region and accentuate solutions designed by and for African nations.In his closing remarks, the senior lawyer maintained that addressing the root causes of Sahel conflicts, such as inequality and agrarian issues, is essential for restoring peace in the region. He highlighted the futility of solely relying on military interventions without addressing these fundamental issues.Key Takeaways and RecommendationsThe Sahel instability tooted in inequality: The crises in the Sahel, often labeled as terrorism, are deeply rooted in historical inequalities, including severe slavery, climate change, and competition for natural resources, leading to conflicts such as herder-farmer disputes. It is essential to recognise the underlying causes beyond terrorism to address these complex challenges effectively.Foreign interference in geopolitical conflicts: Foreign powers’ interests often drive their involvement in conflicts, sometimes creating further complexities.
A prime example is the West Africa and Sahel, where Western nations like France pursue resource protection and geopolitical interests under the guise of counterterrorism efforts. This underscores the need for transparency and clarity in international interventions.Local solutions and the role of ECOWAS: Rather than relying on foreign interventions, the importance of locally crafted solutions cannot be overstated. ECOWAS has taken a step toward revising its Sahel strategy, and it should play a more active role in resolving regional conflicts. To be effective, international organisations like the ECOWAS and African Union must assert their independence from powerful external actors.PMCs and accountability: The use of PMCs in conflicts highlights the complex nature of these entities and the need for international regulation.
The absence of such regulation allows PMCs to play both stabilising and destabilising roles in conflicts. Developing a framework for regulating PMCs’ operations and ensuring their adherence to international norms is crucial.Challenges of IGOs: Intergovernmental organisations, like the UN, AU and ECOWAS, are limited in their effectiveness when powerful states do not act collectively in support of resolutions and operations. This presents significant challenges for IGOs in addressing global conflicts and maintaining international peace and security.Addressing root causes of conflict: To achieve long-term peace, addressing root causes such as inequality, agrarian issues, and generational divides in African states, especially West Africa and the Sahel region is crucial. Reforms and solutions must go beyond military actions and extend to socioeconomic and political areas.Relevance of state institutions: The significance of state institutions and military forces in maintaining global order cannot be understated. Promoting the growth and efficacy of state institutions and military structures is essential to protect sovereignty and uphold international stability.Reevaluating the role of democracy: The prevailing understanding of democracy needs to evolve to accommodate the realities of different nations’ needs and contexts. A reevaluation of the democratic philosophy is vital, considering the balance between civil and military governance.ConclusionGeopolitics Series 3.0 highlighted the need to address the root causes of conflicts, including inequality and agrarian issues in the West Africa and Sahel region, and the importance of local solutions over foreign interventions.
The influence of powerful states in conflicts and the complex role of PMCs raised concerns about the need for international regulation in this area. The effectiveness of inter-governmental organisations also requires collective action from powerful states. Additionally, the role of state institutions in preserving international peace and the evolution of democratic philosophies were amplified throughout the discussions. These takeaways and recommendations serve as a guide for addressing the challenges of resurgent coups, PMCs, and the eroding influence of IGOs on the global stage.These aligned with the vision, mission, aims, and objectives of the Geopolitical Series as a vital platform for exploring global issues and fostering forward-looking perspectives, with a particular focus on Africa. This edition explored the intricate dynamics of geopolitical shifts and their impact on peace, security, economy, governance, and development in an African context.”In the first two editions, we examined the African Union’s six-decade journey and investigated resource mismanagement in Africa. With this third edition, we shed light on the evolving geopolitical landscape, revealing the intricate interplay among states and non-state actors,” explained the Convener of Geopolitics Series, Senator Iroegbu. This is as the Co-convener, Ms. Ayanda Ngwane informed the participants that the forthcoming edition will be a postmortem of the 2023 BRICS and G-20 Summits and the place of Africa.
Navigating Africa’s Turbulent Waters: Resurgent Coups and the Shadowy World of PMCs
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At COP 30, Nigeria Demands Boost In Global Financing To Restore, Protect Nature
At COP 30, Nigeria Demands Boost In Global Financing To Restore, Protect Nature
** VP Shettima says country taking steps to restore climate, nature, development balance with $3bn financing
By: Our Reporter
Nigeria has implored the international community to significantly increase global financing to protect and restore nature’s economic value through predictable, equitable, and accessible funding mechanisms.
According to Nigerian Vice President, Senator Kashim Shettima, since forests, landscapes, and oceans are shared resources that are outside the jurisdiction of any single nation, their protection requires global solidarity.
Senator Shettima stated Nigeria’s position in Belem, Brazil, where he represented President Bola Ahmed Tinubu at a high-level thematic session titled “Climate and Nature: Forests and Oceans,” on the margins of the ongoing United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP 30) being held in that South American country.
The VP regretted that while nature is probably the most critical infrastructure in the world, it has long been treated as a commodity to exploit rather than an asset to invest in, even as he said Nigeria is solidly driven by this knowledge “to integrate nature-positive investments into” its climate finance architecture.
“Through our National Carbon Market Framework and Climate Change Fund, we aim to mobilise up to three billion US dollars annually in climate finance. These resources will be reinvested in community-led reforestation, blue carbon projects, and sustainable agriculture.
“We call on our global partners to recognise the economic value of nature and to channel significant finance towards protecting and restoring it through predictable, equitable, and accessible funding mechanisms,” he declared.
Senator Shettima contended that the Global South countries that “have contributed least to this crisis, are today paying its highest price,” insisting that for climate justice to be seen as well served, nations that have benefited more “from centuries of extraction must now lead in restoration”.
Accordingly, he called on the global community to increase grant-based finance, operationalise Blue Carbon Markets, and implement debt-for-nature swaps to enable developing countries to invest in conservation.

“We urge the international community to scale up grant-based finance for nature-based solutions, implement debt-for-nature swaps that free developing countries to invest in conservation, operationalise Blue Carbon Markets under Article 6 of the Paris Agreement, and strengthen community-led governance so that indigenous peoples, farmers, and fisherfolk are rewarded for their stewardship rather than displaced by it,” he stated.
The Nigerian Vice President said countries that took their forests and oceans for granted had always paid dearly for it, noting that it is the reason why Nigeria will boldly “sit in the front row of any global forum where these twin determinants of ecological order are being discussed.
“We, too, are under siege. We see the signs of danger in deforestation, desertification, illegal mining, coastal erosion, and rising sea levels within our borders. The Sahara advances by nearly one kilometre each year, displacing communities and eroding livelihoods. Each piece of land these threats overcome invites conflict into human lives, compounding our development challenges,” he maintained.
VP Shettima told world leaders and other participants at the high-level session that while Nigeria’s Climate Change Act 2021 enshrines nature-based solutions as a legal obligation of the state, the nation is “taking bold, coordinated steps to restore balance between climate, nature, and development.”
He continued: “Our National Council on Climate Change provides the institutional backbone for integrating climate action into all sectors of governance. We are implementing the Great Green Wall Initiative, reforesting degraded lands across eleven frontline states, planting over ten million trees and creating thousands of green jobs for our youth and women.
“Through our National Afforestation Programme and Forest Landscape Restoration Plan, we aim to restore more than two million hectares of degraded land by 2030. We have also launched our Marine and Blue Economy Policy to harness the vast potential of our seas sustainably — promoting climate-smart fisheries, coastal protection, and marine biodiversity conservation.”
Senator Shettima reaffirmed Nigeria’s commitment to working with partners across the globe to “advance a global agenda where climate action becomes synonymous with nature restoration and human prosperity.”
He vehemently rejected the “portrayal of Africa as a mere victim of climate change,” arguing that it “is an outdated narrative” about a continent that is also a source of its solutions.
The Nigerian Vice President listed Africa’s rainforests, mangroves, peatlands, and oceans as some of the planet’s largest untapped carbon sinks, saying young people in the continent are also “the world’s greatest untapped source of innovation and resolve.
“Nigeria believes that COP30 must mark the beginning of a new compact — one that recognises Africa’s ecosystems as global assets deserving of global investment and protection. We invite all partners to join Nigeria and the African Union in advancing the African Nature Finance Framework, designed to unlock private capital for reforestation, ecosystem restoration, and blue economy development across the continent,” he added.
At COP 30, Nigeria Demands Boost In Global Financing To Restore, Protect Nature
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VP SHETTIMA TO WORLD LEADERS AT COP 30: We Must Stop Pledging And Start Performing To Check Climate Change
STATE HOUSE PRESS RELEASE
VP SHETTIMA TO WORLD LEADERS AT COP 30: We Must Stop Pledging And Start Performing To Check Climate Change
- Calls for delivery on climate promises to preserve the planet for future generations
- Says Nigeria targeting 32% emission cut by 2035 with launch of National Carbon Market Framework and Climate Change Fund
By: Our Reporter
Nigerian Vice President, Senator Kashim Shettima, has charged world leaders to move beyond pledging to performance, and from dialogue to taking reasonable action in tackling climate change and its attendant natural disasters that have claimed innocent lives and rendered many homeless across the globe.
“Let COP30 be remembered as the moment when the world moved from pledges to performance, from ambition to action, and from dialogue to delivery,” he declared.

Speaking on Thursday during the Leaders’ Climate Summit at the ongoing 30th Conference of the Parties of the UNFCCC (COP 30), in Belém, Brazil, the Vice President, who is representing President Bola Ahmed Tinubu, reaffirmed Nigeria’s global climate leadership with a commitment to achieving an emission reduction target of 32% by 2035.
Noting that this followed the unveiling of the National Carbon Market Framework and Climate Change Fund, he explained that the new initiatives form the core of Nigeria’s climate finance architecture designed to attract billions of dollars in clean energy and adaptation investments.
With the Framework and the Fund aimed at driving sustainable investment and resilience in the sector in place, Senator Shettima said Nigeria’s renewed climate agenda represents “not just an aspiration, but a solemn national commitment to preserve the planet for future generations.”
Demanding reasonable action against climate change, the Nigerian Vice President said, “The Earth speaks in the language of loss and warning. It tells us that our survival is tied to its well-being. These are the cries that have compelled us to gather, from one city to another, in pursuit of one shared purpose — to save the only home we have.”
Stressing that climate ambition cannot be sustained by goodwill alone, he said, “No nation can finance climate ambition with goodwill alone. We need a reliable and equitable architecture that recognises the realities of developing nations and empowers them to deliver on global commitments.

“I hereby say without absolute certainty that we are not the problem; we are an integral part of the solution. This is why, at COP30, we hope to demonstrate that Africa can lead in carbon capture through forests, in renewable energy expansion, in digital monitoring of emissions, and in regional cooperation that translates ambition into prosperity,” he said.
He maintained that Nigeria is ready “to work with all nations to build a fairer, greener, and more resilient world, one where our children inherit not the ruins of our indifference, but the fruits of our collective resolve.”
VP Shettima stated that the National Carbon Market Framework would enable Nigeria to generate, trade, and retire carbon credits in alignment with Article 6 of the Paris Agreement, ensuring transparency and integrity in carbon transactions.
The proceeds, he noted, will flow into the newly established Climate Change Fund to support communities most affected by floods, droughts, and desertification.
Senator Shettima further revealed that the Nigerian government has launched a five-year Carbon Market Roadmap that will lay the groundwork for an Emissions Trading System and a Carbon Tax Regime, reinforced by fiscal incentives to promote clean industrial innovation.

Nigeria’s Third Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC), validated and submitted in September 2025, outlines the country’s comprehensive strategy across energy, agriculture, transport, waste, and industry.
According to VP Shettima, the Decade of Gas Strategy remains pivotal in powering the transition, balancing natural gas utilisation with expanded solar and off-grid electrification to drive rural energy access and sustainable development.
On his part, UN Secretary General, Antonio Gutierrez, who said it was unfortunate that countries of the world have failed to remain below 1.5 degrees, charged world leaders to embrace a paradigm shift to limit the overshoot magnitude and quickly drive it down in order to salvage what he described as a highly risky situation.
He stated: “I cannot agree more, and the real truth is that we have failed to remain below 1.5 degrees, and science now tells us that the temporary overshoot between the 1.5 limit, starting at the latest in the early 2030s, is inevitable.
“We therefore need a paradigm shift to limit these overshoots magnitude and duration and quickly drive it down. Given the temporary average overshoots and their thematic consequences, it could push ecosystems and expose billions of people to unliveable conditions and amplify threats to peace and security.
“Every fraction of a degree means more hunger, displacement and loss especially for those least responsible. This is more of failure and deadly negligence. The world metrological service has indicated that emissions will begin to increase this year and the 1.5 degrees is a red line for humanity.”
The UN Secretary General urged world leaders to act with speed and scale in order to make the overshoot as small and as safe as possible thus bringing temperatures to back to below 1.5 degrees Celsius before the end of the century.
Also, Brazil’s President, Lula Inacio Da Silva, said it will take a collective effort for the world to fight climate change, emphasizing that fighting climate change must be a priority for every government and individual on earth.

“We will need to overcome the mismatch of lack of connection between diplomatic dialogue and the actual world. It will take a collective effort, listening to indigenous communities and those bearing the brunt of climate change in order to take a global approach to the challenge,” he said.
President Da Silva added that thethe slogan of “Collective Efforts” was adopted for COP 30 to encourage climate action worldwide “from all sectors of society, in particular civic societies and grassroots organizations.”
“Climate change is the result of the same dynamics that, during centuries, has broken our societies between rich and poor. Climate justice is aligned with fighting hunger and poverty, the struggle against racism and gender inequality,” he added.
For his part, the Prince of Wales, Williams, who represented his father, King Charles, at the plenary, said it was time for his generation to safeguard the natural world for generations to come.
“Our children and grandchildren will stand on the shoulders of our collective action. Let us use these inspiring surroundings here in the heart of the Amazon to rise to meet this moment, not with hesitation, but with courage; not with division, but with collaboration; not with delay, but with decisive commitment,” he said.
End
National News
There Is No Place for a Coup in Nigeria
There Is No Place for a Coup in Nigeria
By Ernest Omoarelojie
In recent weeks, Nigeria’s public discourse has been clouded by rumours of a foiled coup plot involving over a dozen military officers and a former governor allegedly “on the run.” While the Defence Headquarters has issued a characteristically ambiguous statement, the very persistence of these rumours—whether grounded in fact or fabricated through disinformation—demands urgent clarification: There is absolutely no place for military intervention in today’s Nigeria.
This isn’t mere rhetoric. It’s a data-driven conclusion supported by Nigeria’s painful history, the catastrophic failures of recent military takeovers across Africa’s Sahel region, and mounting evidence of foreign-backed disinformation campaigns designed to destabilise democratic governance across the continent. While it is true that the statement from the DHQ neither confirmed nor denied the reports, the speculation has continued to spread rapidly across social media—fuelled by conspiracy theories, propaganda, and coordinated disinformation. Yet, amid the noise, one truth must be re-emphasised and declared without ambiguity: There is no place for a coup or military junta in today’s Nigeria.
No grievance, however genuine, justifies a return to military rule. Nigeria’s democracy may be imperfect, but it remains the only framework capable of reforming itself without destroying the nation. We have already paid too high a price for the lessons of authoritarianism. The mere imagination of another coup is not only reckless but profoundly dangerous for a country still healing from decades of military misadventure.
Between 1966 and 1999, Nigeria endured six successful coups and several failed attempts. The first, in January 1966, plunged the country into chaos, triggering a civil war that claimed over a million lives and left deep ethnic and regional scars that still shape our politics today. Those years of military interregnum—29 in total—brought suspended constitutions, curtailed freedoms, and economic mismanagement that impoverished generations.
By 1998, Nigeria’s per capita income had declined by nearly 40 per cent from its 1980 levels, inflation had soared, and international sanctions had rendered the nation a pariah. Between 1960 and 1999, Nigeria earned more than $350 billion from oil exports, yet emerged with decrepit infrastructure, foreign debt exceeding $30 billion, and rampant poverty. Transparency International later estimated that at least $5 billion was stolen under one military regime alone.
We cannot forget those years. Military rule did not save Nigeria—it nearly destroyed her.
Since 1999, despite setbacks, democracy has delivered measurable progress. Nigeria has experienced seven consecutive elections and four peaceful transfers of power between parties—unprecedented in our history. Our economy has grown from $46 billion in 1999 to over $440 billion today, making Nigeria one of Africa’s largest economies. Freedom of expression and civic activism have flourished. The media is freer than ever, and civil society continues to shape national debate. These gains, however modest, are the fruits of civilian rule.
Contrast this with recent experiences in Africa’s Sahel region, where coups have been romanticised as patriotic revolutions. In Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger, soldiers promised stability but delivered chaos. The Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED) reports that violent incidents in Mali have increased by more than 150 per cent since the 2021 coup. Burkina Faso recorded over 8,000 conflict-related deaths in 2023—its bloodiest year on record. Niger, once a model of Western partnership, now faces sanctions, diplomatic isolation, and growing insecurity.
Far from restoring order, military juntas have exacerbated corruption, restricted freedoms, and weaponised propaganda to conceal their failures. Transparency International’s indices confirm that corruption perceptions have deteriorated across all junta-led states. Freedom House now ranks every coup-affected nation as “Not Free.” The message is unmistakable: military rule breeds repression and decline, not progress.
Equally alarming is the rise of disinformation designed to destabilise democracies like Nigeria’s. Research by the Centre for Democracy and Development (CDD) and EU DisinfoLab has uncovered coordinated online campaigns—some linked to foreign actors—spreading pro-coup sentiment across West Africa. These networks exploit legitimate frustrations over insecurity and poverty to romanticise military rule and sow distrust in civilian institutions.
This is not patriotism; it is manipulation. Every Nigerian who forwards unverified rumours of a coup or glorifies soldiers as saviours is, knowingly or not, amplifying the work of those who wish to fracture our democracy from within.
Let us be clear: democracy is not perfect. Citizens are frustrated by corruption, unemployment, and governance failures. However, the answer lies in deeper reform, not a return to authoritarianism. Democracy allows us to protest, vote, speak, and litigate. Military rule silences all of that. The difference between democracy and dictatorship is not perfection—it is the presence of choice.
Even now, Nigeria’s institutions continue to evolve. The 2022 Electoral Act has improved transparency and electoral integrity. The Freedom of Information Act empowers journalists to demand accountability. The judiciary, although imperfect, is increasingly asserting its independence. These are steps forward—achievements that would vanish overnight under a military junta.
Nigeria’s Armed Forces have repeatedly affirmed their loyalty to the Constitution. That commitment must be protected and celebrated. Civil society, the media, and citizens must also remain vigilant, resisting any attempt—real or imagined—to drag Nigeria back to the dark era of decrees and fear.
In today’s interconnected world, a coup would not only destroy Nigeria’s fragile stability but also trigger economic collapse, diplomatic isolation, and social unrest. The Sahel’s tragedies are warning enough: the gun cannot build what only governance can.
Nigeria’s future lies not in the barrel of a gun but in the ballot box, in civic participation, and in accountable leadership. The path of democracy is hard, but it is the only one that leads forward. For all our imperfections, democracy gives us hope, adaptability, and voice. Military rule silences all three.
And for that reason alone, there is—and must forever be—no place for a coup in today’s Nigeria.
Ernest Omoarelojie is the Director of Media and Communications for Hope Alive Initiative, a pro-good-governance advocate in Nigeria
There Is No Place for a Coup in Nigeria
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