El-Rufai: A calculated yet potentially ineffectual strategy to challenge Tinubu and Shettima’s re-election bid in 2027.

By: Dr. James Bwala

The recent political maneuver by former governor of Kaduna State, Malam Nasir El-Rufai, left many political observers laughing. El-Rufai remains a new clown in the political arena since his rejection as a minister from Kaduna State under the Tinubu administration. El-Rufai’s defection to the Social Democratic Party (SDP) represents a calculated yet potentially ineffectual strategy to challenge President Bola Tinubu and Vice President Kashim Shettima’s 2027 reelection bid. El-Rufai’s move, characterized by claims of ideological divergence from the APC, appears more rooted in personal political ambitions than substantive systemic transformation, which he continually hopes Nigerians believe. 

Critical analysis suggests that El-Rufai’s defection is symptomatic of intra-elite power reconfiguration rather than a genuine oppositional movement. The strategic repositioning reflects deeper fractures within Nigeria’s political landscape, where elite negotiations supersede meaningful democratic representation. While El-Rufai attempts to mobilize opposition figures like Peter Obi and Atiku Abubakar, the fundamental power structures remain remarkably unchanged.

Ultimately, the proposed alliance faces significant challenges. The fragmentation of opposition forces, combined with the APC’s entrenched political machinery, renders El-Rufai’s efforts potentially futile. His defection might be interpreted as a symbolic gesture rather than a substantive challenge to the incumbent administration, highlighting the persistent limitations of Nigeria’s contemporary political dynamics. He has been seen moving from one big political figure to another, including going to the home of the former president in an attempt to give credence to his moves, yet he could not clean up the traces of his aging and diminishing relevance in the circle of politics. Despite El-Rufai’s efforts, the entrenched political dynamics and the lack of a cohesive ideological framework within the opposition diminish the likelihood of any substantial electoral upset in 2027.

The lack of a unified vision and coherent policy proposals among these opposition figures only exacerbates their inability to present a credible alternative to the electorate. Given the historical context of electoral politics in Nigeria, the absence of a cohesive opposition strategy further compounds the challenge of altering the status quo, rendering El-Rufai’s defection more an act of political theater than a catalyst for genuine change. Moreover, the entrenched interests and loyalties within the APC continue to present formidable barriers to any meaningful opposition realignment. 

The political landscape appears to be more about individual ambitions and less about a unified front capable of mounting a serious challenge to the incumbent powers. This scenario underscores the cyclical nature of political realignments in Nigeria, where shifts often reflect personal ambitions rather than a genuine ideological departure from established norms. While El-Rufai’s attempts to forge alliances with other opposition figures such as Peter Obi, Atiku Abubakar, and Rabiu Kwankwaso signal a desire to create a formidable coalition, the reality remains that such alliances often crumble under the weight of competing interests and personal ambitions, leaving the electorate disillusioned with yet another cycle of political theatrics. Moreover, the historical pattern of political defections in Nigeria suggests that such moves are often perceived as mere strategic repositioning rather than genuine ideological shifts. 

Despite the theatrical nature of these political maneuvers, the entrenched power dynamics and loyalty networks within Nigeria’s political landscape make it exceedingly difficult for any new coalition, no matter how strategically crafted, to truly upend the status quo. While El-Rufai’s intentions may appear bold, they are unlikely to disrupt the deeply entrenched political machinery that has long favored incumbents like Tinubu and Shettima. 

Despite these efforts, the pervasive influence of existing political structures suggests that any such coalition is more likely to fracture under pressure rather than mount a successful challenge. Given the entrenched interests and historical voting patterns, it appears unlikely that such a coalition could effectively disrupt the established political dominance of Tinubu and Shettima in the upcoming election. This skepticism is further compounded by the perception that El-Rufai’s defection and subsequent coalition-building efforts are more about personal political survival than a genuine commitment to transformative change. Despite the apparent allure of a united front, the reality remains that these alliances often falter under the weight of conflicting agendas and entrenched political loyalties. Moreover, the historical precedent of political realignments in Nigeria often results in temporary alliances that lack the cohesion necessary to present a formidable challenge to established power structures. 

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The skepticism surrounding El-Rufai’s defection is echoed by the Nigerian Presidency and APC, who dismiss his move as a futile endeavor motivated by personal ambition rather than a genuine ideological shift. Indeed, El-Rufai’s maneuver is less about ideological realignment and more a reconfiguration of elite power dynamics within the ruling class. As observed by many political analysts, the political landscape remains largely unchanged, with the same elite power dynamics at play, suggesting that any perceived threat from El-Rufai’s move is unlikely to materialize into a significant challenge.

This skepticism is further reinforced by the broader historical context of Nigerian politics, where similar attempts to consolidate opposition forces have often unraveled due to internal dissent and the prioritization of individual ambitions over collective goals. Additionally, the inherent volatility of such coalitions, often marred by a lack of unified vision and the dominance of competing interests, further diminishes their potential to unseat entrenched incumbents. Historical patterns also suggest that such coalitions often struggle to sustain momentum and coherence, especially when faced with the entrenched influence of incumbents like Tinubu and Vice President Kashim Shettima.

Given this context, El-Rufai’s efforts to rally opposition figures like Peter Obi and others around the SDP banner might appear ambitious, but without a cohesive strategy or compelling ideological narrative, such alliances are prone to fragmentation and ultimately ineffectual in altering the prevailing status quo. 

The entrenched political machinery supporting President Tinubu and Vice President Kashim Shettima possesses significant resources and influence, making it a formidable barrier for any nascent coalition lacking internal solidarity and a resonant national platform. Despite these strategic maneuvers, the historical precedent and current political landscape suggest that El-Rufai’s efforts may ultimately falter against the deeply entrenched systems supporting Tinubu and Shettima.

The historical resilience of incumbent structures in Nigerian politics, characterized by their adept patronage networks and control over vital state apparatuses, presents another significant challenge for any opposition coalition seeking to disrupt the status quo. Without a clear ideological foundation and a unified agenda that resonates with the broader electorate, such attempts are often perceived as mere political repositioning rather than genuine efforts to instigate meaningful change. In 2027, President Tinubu and Vice President Kashim Shettima will take the oath again for the second time, and El-Rufai will still have no political credibility to make a difference in Nigeria’s political circle. 

* James Bwala, PhD, writes from Abuja.

El-Rufai: A calculated yet potentially ineffectual strategy to challenge Tinubu and Shettima’s re-election bid in 2027.

2027: Vice President Kashim Shettima will rewrite Nigeria’s political campaign history again. 

By: Dr. James Bwala

The rise of Vice President Kashim Shettima as a transformative political figure in Nigeria’s electoral scene marks a dramatic shift in national campaign dynamics. His strategic approach to political participation reveals a deep awareness of Nigeria’s complicated sociopolitical landscape, which could reshape standard campaign strategies come 2027.

Kashim Shettima’s national and international engagements with those who are closely monitoring the unveiling of political groundbreaking can attest to the fact that, for every move the Vice President makes in the service of Nigeria under the renewed hope presidency, a man to watch for in the unfolding events of Nigeria’s 2027 campaigns and elections. Shettima’s political career reveals an exceptional ability to cross regional, ethnic, and ideological lines. His approach goes beyond traditional political narratives, providing a complete perspective that solves complex national concerns. By emphasizing collaborative governance and progressive policy frameworks, he departs from previous campaign rhetoric, which frequently promoted contentious techniques above genuine national growth.

The implications of Shettima’s potential campaign are profound. His strategic positioning suggests an innovative political methodology that could fundamentally reconstruct Nigeria’s electoral discourse. By prioritizing substantive policy discussions over inflammatory rhetoric, he represents a potential turning point in the nation’s political communication strategy, potentially establishing a new benchmark for future political engagement and national discourse.

Kashim Shettima’s expected 2027 campaign trajectory will be more than just an electoral tactic; it will mark a potential paradigm shift in Nigerian political communication and governing philosophy. This transition towards a more inclusive and issue-focused campaign could serve as a stimulus for other political personalities to adopt similar techniques. His transparent and accountable leadership style has the potential to encourage a new generation of Nigerian politicians to prioritize the country’s communal well-being before partisan interests.

By fostering a political environment where dialogue and cooperation are prioritized, Shettima’s campaign could potentially set the stage for a more stable and unified Nigeria. Such a transformation would not only redefine the political landscape but also resonate with citizens across diverse spectrums. His forward-thinking approach, which aligns with the principles outlined in the APC’s action plan for renewed hope, could potentially address longstanding national issues through innovative solutions. By utilizing strategies that emphasize inclusivity and innovation, Shettima’s campaign could potentially harness the diverse strengths of Nigeria’s population, addressing key challenges in areas such as national security and economic development. By integrating the principles outlined in the APC’s action plan for renewed hope, Shettima could pioneer a campaign that effectively addresses national security and economic challenges through collaborative and forward-looking policies. By cultivating a platform that prioritizes transparency and accountability, Shettima’s campaign has the potential to redefine political engagement in Nigeria. 

His inclusive and forward-thinking approach could serve as a roadmap for future campaigns aimed at bridging gaps and fostering national unity. This method has the potential to spark a new age of political campaigns that prioritize all Nigerians’ interests and voices, instilling a sense of common ownership and participation in the country’s democratic process. Shettima may use his experience and understanding of Nigeria’s complicated sociopolitical milieu to develop techniques that not only resonate with voters but also set new norms for campaign conduct and communication.

By utilizing data analytics and social media platforms, Shettima’s campaign could pave the way for innovative campaign methods that use technology and grassroots mobilization to engage with citizens on an unprecedented scale. This approach could not only energize the youth and marginalized communities but also foster a sense of inclusivity and shared purpose across Nigeria’s diverse population.

Shettima’s campaign could also build trust among the electorate, addressing long-standing issues of political skepticism and apathy. This innovative strategy could redefine the traditional dynamics of political engagement in Nigeria, making campaigns more interactive and impactful than ever before. By integrating real-time feedback mechanisms, the campaign could adapt swiftly to public opinion and concerns, ensuring that its message remains relevant and responsive to the needs of all Nigerians. 

The potential for such a transformative campaign strategy aligns with the broader vision outlined in the APC’s action plan. With the APC’s emphasis on progressive good governance and innovative solutions, Shettima’s campaign could serve as a model for how political campaigns are conducted in the digital age. This forward-thinking approach and utilizing cutting-edge technologies, Shettima’s campaign could serve as a beacon for how political movements can evolve to meet the demands of modern society. 

By demonstrating a commitment to inclusivity and innovation, Shettima’s campaign stands to not only win votes but also inspire a new generation of political leaders in Nigeria. By leveraging these strategies, Shettima has the potential to galvanize widespread support and set a precedent for future political campaigns in Nigeria. By fostering strategic alliances with grassroots organizations and leveraging the power of social media, Shettima’s campaign could further amplify its reach and impact across diverse demographics. 

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Shettima’s campaign prioritizes transparency and open dialogue, fostering trust and unity among the electorate, leading to a more cohesive and engaged democratic process. By incorporating data-driven insights and leveraging artificial intelligence to tailor campaign messages, Shettima’s approach could redefine voter engagement methodologies in Nigeria, setting a new standard for political communication.

Shettima’s campaign, by deliberately targeting major policy issues like national security, the economy, and infrastructure development, has the potential to powerfully resonate with the electorate’s need for new hope and progress. Shettima’s ability to articulate a vision that addresses both urgent needs and long-term aspirations may catch the imagination of people seeking meaningful change and sustainable development. Shettima’s campaign, which demonstrates a commitment to inclusive governance and addresses Nigeria’s multifarious difficulties, has the potential to inspire a new age of political participation and innovation in the country’s democratic landscape.

These innovative strategies demonstrate a steadfast commitment to progressive good governance. Shettima’s campaign has the potential to not only reshape political discourse but also to set a precedent for future campaigns in Nigeria. By fostering a culture of transparency and accountability, Shettima’s campaign could also build trust among voters, which is crucial for sustaining democratic institutions and promoting civic engagement. 

Shettima might effectively mobilize support across diverse groups by focusing on grassroots participation and using digital platforms to reach a larger audience. Shettima’s campaign could fine-tune its outreach techniques by leveraging the power of emerging technologies and social media analytics, ensuring that the message of renewed hope reaches every part of the country. His approach has the potential to create a new standard for engaging with the voters, emphasizing both the importance of policy and the necessity for a genuine relationship between leaders and individuals.

Dr. James Bwala, PhD, writes from Abuja.

2027: Vice President Kashim Shettima will rewrite Nigeria’s political campaign history again. 

PDP Chieftain urges Nigerians to vote for Atiku in 2027

By: Yahaya Wakili

A chieftain of the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) in Yobe State, and also a strong supporter of Alhaji Atiku Abubakar, Wazirin Adamawa, Malam Usman Mohammed Dan Takunne, has urged Nigerians, both Muslims and Christians, to come out en masse to vote for Atiku Abubakar in the 2027 general elections.

Malam Usman Mohammed Dan Takunne is from the Jakusko local government area of Yobe state. In 2023, he trucked from Yobe state to Yola, Adamawa state, barefoot to express his happiness because of the victory of Wazirin Adamawa in the primary election.

“Voting for Atiku Abubakar Wazirin Adamawa as the President of Nigeria is only the solution to the problems that are dividing the country now, and Nigerians are facing the consequences under the APC administration. They’re crippling the country’s economy, he said.

According to Dan Takunne, APC has failed Nigerians, and if Atiku Abubakar becomes the president everybody in Nigeria will enjoy, you will not hear the cases of suffering, hunger, poverty, insecurity, kidnapping, banditry, and other cases of criminality in the country.

“PDP rules this country for 16 years, and Alhaji Atiku Abubakar was the vice president for a good 8 years. Everybody enjoyed this country, both the PDP, APC, and even the other parties, religious leaders, and masses; everybody enjoyed the dividend of democracy, and there is no discrimination in PDP administration, Dan Takunne said.

Dan Takunne maintained that, now that the APC has scattered the country’s economy, life has become worse; therefore, there is a need to continue praying now in this country. Nigerians are in danger; let us sit down and rethink very well and vote for Atiku Abubakar Wazirin Adamawa as a president in 2027 to rescue this country from collapse. 

“I am sure the minds of Nigerians have turned now on Atiku Abubakar; everybody has abandoned that man and his party, and everybody is praying for Wazirin Adamawa to come in 2027, and we are praying no doubt he will win, Insha Allah, by the grace of God.” He added.

If Wazirin Adamawa becomes the president in 2027, within six months everything will be normal in this country; our economy will improve drastically, and the issues of insecurity, hardship, poverty, criminal activities, and other suffering of people will become a history in the country.

PDP Chieftain urges Nigerians to vote for Atiku in 2027