2027: The Coalition, the resistance North, and the APC’s Path to Victory

2027: The Coalition, the resistance North, and the APC’s Path to Victory

By: Dr. James Bwala

The political landscape in Nigeria ahead of the 2027 elections suggests an imminent collapse of the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) and Labour Party (LP), while the Social Democratic Party (SDP) may emerge as the primary opposition, but it will ultimately lose to the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) by a wider margin. The PDP’s internal divisions and resistance to coalition-building, particularly its governors’ rejection of alliances with LP and SDP, significantly weaken its viability as a competitive force. This fragmentation undermines any effective challenge against APC’s entrenched dominance.

Despite attempts by figures like former Vice President Atiku Abubakar to unite opposition forces, the lack of cohesion within PDP and between opposition parties inhibits a strong front against APC. Analysts emphasize that without strategic coalitions, no single party can match APC’s electoral machinery or political influence. Even if SDP consolidates opposition votes, its structural weaknesses and limited reach foreshadow a defeat by an even larger margin than previous contests.

Indeed, with growing complexities accompanying the political landscape, Nigeria’s multiparty system faces realignment where PDP and LP risk extinction due to disunity, while SDP’s isolated struggle against APC is unlikely to alter electoral outcomes significantly. The evidence underscores that only a united opposition coalition could potentially reduce APC’s dominance; however, current dynamics indicate this remains improbable before 2027. 

As the political landscape continues to evolve, the potential for a unified opposition remains hindered by entrenched party loyalties and strategic misalignments, further solidifying APC’s path to a more decisive victory. The entrenched influence of APC’s political machinery and its strategic alliances, such as the strengthening of the Tinubu-Shettima partnership, further complicate any opposition efforts to mount a significant challenge in 2027. 

Many political pundits have agreed that the All Progressives Congress (APC) is strategically positioned to dismantle opposition forces ahead of the 2027 Nigerian elections by capitalizing on the fragmented nature of its adversaries. The opposition currently consists of disparate groups: former presidential contenders who reject APC’s governance, disaffected ex-APC members seeking influence, and erstwhile party leaders now opposing the APC. This lack of cohesion undermines any effective coalition-building efforts, a critical weakness given Nigeria’s history, where opposition alliances frequently collapse due to internal strife and competing ambitions.

For now, the APC is leveraging its narrative of competent governance, contrasting with the perceived failures of the People’s Democratic Party (PDP), which it accuses of prolonged misrule and internal discord. By emphasizing PDP’s factionalism and incompetence, APC consolidates public trust while portraying itself as Nigeria’s stable alternative. This discourse not only weakens PDP’s credibility but also sows doubt about any potential opposition coalition.

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In essence, through exploiting opposition fragmentation and promoting its governance record against a divided PDP, loosely LP, and undecided SDP, the APC is poised to reduce opposition to rubble in 2027. The inability of opposition factions to unify effectively ensures that APC’s dominance remains largely unchallenged in forthcoming electoral contests. 

Angry leaders from the north are falling over themselves to raise regional political forces. But this too is no match for the readiness expected of the region. Despite the North’s considerable demographic and electoral influence, many Northerners feel marginalized due to perceived neglect in appointments and resource distribution, fueling a sense of betrayal. This dissatisfaction is compounded by internal divisions rooted in insecurity, poverty, and inter-communal conflicts that undermine the North’s collective political strength. As a result, these fractures could weaken the region’s capacity to negotiate effectively within national politics or present a unified opposition to Tinubu and Kashim Shettima, the APC’s dominance.

Demands from key sub-regions such as North-Central illustrate emerging fissures within Northern political interests. Stakeholders from this area insist on the presidency for 2027 and have conditioned their support for Tinubu’s reelection on replacing his vice president with a candidate from their region. Such demands underscore the potential for intensified competition among Northern factions rather than solidarity. This internal contestation risks diluting the North’s overall influence if not carefully managed. To this effect, unless Northern leaders address these internal challenges and reconcile divergent regional aspirations, political disunity may jeopardize their strategic position in 2027. 

The combination of grassroots grievances and elite rivalries is indeed opening ways for APC to exploit these divisions through tactical maneuvering, thereby diminishing Northern Nigeria’s historical leverage in Nigerian politics. It is imperative that cohesive strategies are developed to unify Northern voices if they are to maintain relevance in forthcoming elections.

* James Bwala, PhD, writes from Abuja.

2027: The Coalition, the resistance North, and the APC’s Path to Victory