2027: There Is a Shift in Northern Support Towards Tinubu and Shettima

2027: There Is a Shift in Northern Support Towards Tinubu and Shettima

By: Dr. James Bwala

Recently, the evolving political dynamics in Northern Nigeria ahead of the 2027 presidential election reveal a significant shift in support towards President Bola Tinubu and Vice President Kashim Shettima. This change challenges earlier apprehensions surrounding the Muslim-Muslim ticket, which faced considerable criticism in 2023 for potentially alienating key Christian constituencies within the North-Central and Middle Belt regions. Contrary to these concerns, influential political groups such as the North-Central APC Forum have expressed robust backing for the Tinubu-Shettima ticket, citing sustained regional support driven by strategic appointments of prominent Christian leaders and tangible governance achievements. 

I recalled sitting in the congregation on a Sunday morning earlier this year and listening to the preacher. His words struck me with the assurance of faith in the APC administration. It solidifies my continuous advocacy that Nigeria is on the path of the renewed hope promised by the Tinubu and Shettima administration. The charges on the direction this administration is taking and what they were able to achieve further strengthen my appeal for confidence that, like never before in the history of this great country, we have found leaders who are truly committed to bringing back our long-lost hope by the renewal initiative the Tinubu and Kashim Shettima leadership is taking to every doorstepacross Nigeria. A hope—long lost in leadership—is found here with Tinubu and Shettima. 

He spoke also on the lingering political questions between the president and his vice, describing the permutations around the rift within the first and second families and predictions by certain classes and groups as evil seeds, which can never come to pass. This has come true with the message of goodwill from President Bola Ahmed Tinubu to Vice President Kashim Shettima during the celebration of his 59th birthday. Indeed, the silence that greeted those hoping to see Kashim Shettima replaced confirms the preacher’s testament. The retention of Shettima as running mate is seen not only as a continuation of a winning formula but also as a critical factor in consolidating northern votes estimated to reach up to 90% in certain areas. Indeed, the endorsements from coalitions like the Northern Progressives Coalition underscore an emerging consensus that transcends previous religious and ethnic fault lines, suggesting a recalibration of political allegiances based on performance and perceived stability. 

This transition is primarily influenced by several factors, including the performance of previous leaders, regional interests, and the appeal of Tinubu and Shettima as candidates. The North has historically been a vital political bloc in Nigeria. Its immense population translates to significant voting power. Despite the appeal by the coalition leaders, the dissatisfaction of northern voters with candidates like Atiku Abubakar, Nasir el-Rufai, and Peter Obi has been growing. Atiku, a veteran politician, has repeatedly contested for the presidency without achieving success. Many in the North may feel fatigued by his long political career and perceive a lack of fresh ideas or strategies to solve pressing issues. 

On the other hand, El-Rufai, despite his role as the Governor of Kaduna State, is often criticized for his handling of security challenges in the region. The North has faced a surge in violence, kidnappings, and terrorism over the years, and some citizens believe el-Rufai’s policies were inadequate. Consequently, confidence in him has diminished as voters seek more reliable leadership in times of crisis.For Mr. Peter Obi, a former governor of Anambra State, he gained popularity due to his focus on education and economic reforms. However, his appeal may not resonate as strongly in the North, where issues such as security and religious sentiments are of greater concern. As people evaluate their choices, they may prioritize candidates who can address these critical issues effectively. 

Whether the opposition agrees or not, those who have been following development in Nigeria know that President Bola Tinubu and Vice President Kashim Shettima present a promising alternative for Northern voters. Both have established political careers. Tinubu, a former governor of Lagos State, is known for his influential political machinery and his ability to build alliances across parties. Shettima, his running mate, has been involved in addressing the Boko Haram insurgency during his tenure as governor of Borno State. Their combined experience appeals to voters who are weary of ineffective leadership and are looking for pragmatic solutions to Nigeria’s challenges. 

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The regional loyalty also plays a crucial role in the upcoming elections. The North may feel inclined to support candidates who are capable of uniting Nigeria. Tinubu and Shettima’s collaborative approach could foster a sense of national cohesion, further solidifying their candidacy in the hearts of Northern voters. As the political landscape evolves in preparation for the 2027 elections, Tinubu and Shettima’s experience, strategies, and ability to address pressing concerns, as shown by their leadership styles, position them as formidable candidates, likely to gain substantial support from the North in the upcoming elections. 

While the political trajectory of Nigeria’s presidency under Bola Tinubu and Vice President Kashim Shettima suggests a continued consolidation of power leading into the 2027 election. Observers and party insiders alike have expressed confidence that the duo will secure victory with a significantly wider margin than in the 2023 polls. This assertion is grounded in several factors, including Tinubu’s strategic governance approach, Shettima’s regional appeal, and their combined ability to maintain a broad coalition across Nigeria’s diverse electorate. 

Despite initial controversies surrounding the Muslim-Muslim ticket, which some analysts feared could alienate key voter blocs, the administration has demonstrated inclusiveness and political dexterity that mitigate such concerns. The careful selection of Shettima as vice president was not only a move to balance regional interests but also to strengthen party unity and electoral prospects. Indeed, internal party structures such as those advocated by influential groups like the North-Central APC Forum highlight strong grassroots support for retaining this ticket, emphasizing their proven effectiveness in mobilizing voters across critical regions.

*James Bwala, PhD, writes from Abuja. 

2027: There Is a Shift in Northern Support Towards Tinubu and Shettima