2027: Who owns the ADC presidential ticket? 

2027: Who owns the ADC presidential ticket? 

By: Dr. James Bwala

The African Democratic Congress (ADC) recently concluded its national convention, culminating in the election of David Mark, a prominent northern political figure, as its National Chairman. This outcome has sparked considerable debate and speculation about the party’s internal zoning strategies, especially regarding the 2027 presidential ticket. Central to this discussion are questions that touch on the very core of Nigerian politics: Will the ADC now zone its presidential nomination to the South, as per the unwritten zoning conventions that have largely guided political power distribution in Nigeria? 

If Atiku Abubakar, another influential northern politician, decides to contest the presidency under the ADC banner, which he will as a perpetual candidate, will David Mark step down from his chairmanship to accommodate zoning expectations? The currents of speculation are further fueled by rumors surrounding the ownership of the ADC presidential ticket. Meanwhile, on the opposing side of Nigeria’s political arena, President Bola Ahmed Tinubu and Vice President Kashim Shettima stand battle-ready for the 2027 general elections, poised to face any rival. 

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These unfolding scenarios require astute political navigation by the ADC, which must balance regional dynamics, party cohesion, and electoral competitiveness to meaningfully challenge the well-entrenched political heavyweights. And I asked again, “Who owns the ticket?” 

The significance of zoning in Nigerian politics cannot be overstated. The concept of zoning, an informal arrangement designed to maintain a balance of power among Nigeria’s diverse ethnic and regional groups, has traditionally aimed to mitigate feelings of marginalization and foster national unity. Across different political parties, zoning arrangements dictate the rotation of key positions—especially the presidency—between the North and the South. The ADC’s election of David Mark, a northern political stalwart, as National Chairman raises important questions about the party’s commitment to this principle regarding its presidential nomination. Given that the North has produced several recent presidents, including Muhammadu Buhari, many political observers and southern stakeholders expect the next presidential candidate, particularly from opposition parties, to hail from the South. This expectation aligns with broader national calls for fairness and regional inclusivity.

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Planning is an important function of management; the ADC can either plan to fail or plan to win in the 2027 political outing. The dilemma now is whether the ADC, by electing a northern chairman, is implicitly signaling a northern hold on the presidential candidacy or whether it intends to adhere to zoning conventions by nominating a southern presidential candidate. The party’s decision in this regard is more than symbolic; it will set the tone for its electoral viability and credibility. Should the ADC nominate another northerner for the presidency, it risks alienating southern voters who may perceive this as an entrenchment of northern dominance. 

Conversely, a genuine zoning commitment to the South would enable the party to strengthen its appeal across regional lines, potentially broadening its support base in preparation for the 2027 elections. Indeed, the balancing act is delicate, as internal party interests often complicate straightforward regional accommodation.

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Complicating matters further are the speculations surrounding Atiku Abubakar’s potential presidential ambitions within the ADC. Atiku, a former vice president and perennial presidential aspirant, commands significant influence, particularly in the North. Should Atiku choose to run under the ADC platform, this scenario would present an immediate conundrum vis-à-vis zoning and party leadership roles. If the party’s national chairman—David Mark—also from the North, is maintaining both leadership and presidential candidacy in the same region, this might be perceived as a violation of zoning equity, undermining the party’s coherence and public image. In such a circumstance, political logic and party discipline may compel David Mark to resign or temporarily step aside to enable a fair contest and to respect the spirit of zoning. This would demonstrate political maturity and respect for zoning conventions, thereby enhancing the ADC’s stance as a party that values national integration and equitable power-sharing.

However, politics rarely operates in neat, idealistic frameworks. Both David Mark and Atiku wield considerable political clout, and compromises may be difficult to reach. The ADC must therefore engage in strategic policymaking and consensus-building to manage these personalities and expectations effectively. Failure to manage this tension risks internal fractures that could weaken the party’s position ahead of one of Nigeria’s most consequential general elections.

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Another layer to this complex narrative is the question: who currently “owns” the ADC presidential ticket? In Nigerian politics, the notion of “owning” a party ticket often transcends official processes, involving informal agreements, internal lobbying, and political bargaining. Rumors abound that influential figures within the ADC have stakes in the presidential candidacy. Disentangling these claims requires transparency and democratic internal mechanisms within the party. A credible and inclusive primary process that allows aspirants to compete fairly is essential to establishing the legitimacy of the eventual candidate. If the party falls into the trap of conceding the ticket to a single individual or faction prematurely, it risks alienating other stakeholders and undermining collective motivation.

Clear communication from the ADC leadership about the timelines, criteria, and processes for selecting its presidential candidate can help dispel rumors and unify the party’s message. Moreover, the ADC must remain mindful that the Nigerian electorate is increasingly discerning, demanding accountability and fairness from political parties. Demonstrating internal democracy will signal to voters that the ADC is different from the status quo political machinery, potentially heightening its competitive edge.

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Yet, even with effective internal arrangements, the ADC faces formidable opposition from established political giants. On the other side of the political spectrum, Bola Tinubu and Kashim Shettima are widely seen as front-runners for the ruling party’s presidential and vice-presidential tickets in 2027. Tinubu, a political strategist with deep-rooted networks, and Shettima, a strategic and respected vice president with considerable regional influence, represent an entrenched political coalition with vast resources and an extensive grassroots structure. This reality means the ADC’s efforts to position itself as a viable alternative must go beyond internal zoning debates; it must articulate a compelling vision and program that resonates with Nigerians across ethno-regional divides.

To challenge Tinubu and Shettima, the ADC will need to leverage its unique positioning and capitalize on public dissatisfaction with the incumbent administration. The party must also use the zoning issue strategically to present itself as a champion of national unity and equitable representation. By successfully navigating internal regional complexities, the ADC can portray itself as a model of political inclusion in contrast to the often divisive politics of established parties.

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There are cracks everywhere within the ADC. Indeed, the ADC’s recent election of David Mark as National Chairman opens a complex but critical chapter in the party’s evolution. Addressing the zoning question concerning the 2027 presidential ticket will test the party’s commitment to national inclusivity and internal democracy. Should Atiku Abubakar pursue the presidency under the ADC, the party faces the additional challenge of reconciling competing northern interests while maintaining the integrity of zoning conventions. The ownership of the presidential ticket remains contested, underscoring the need for transparent and democratic selection processes. 

Ultimately, while Tinubu and Shettima appear ready to dominate the 2027 electoral landscape, the ADC has an opportunity to redefine Nigeria’s political narrative through judicious management of regional dynamics and a unified front. A successful navigation of these challenges will not only enhance the ADC’s electoral prospects but also contribute to strengthening Nigeria’s democratic fabric. It is incumbent upon the ADC leadership and members to act decisively, inclusively, and strategically as they prepare for the political battles ahead. With questions swinging around Peter Obi, Rotimi Amaechi, Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso, and others in the race for the ticket, there seemed to be a time bomb for the ADC waiting to explode should the party fail to plan. 

* James Bwala, PhD, writes from Abuja. 

2027: Who owns the ADC presidential ticket?