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Tinubu: The FCT Verdict and Inevitability of 2027
Tinubu: The FCT Verdict and Inevitability of 2027
By Jude Obioha
The 2027 presidential election may still be months away, but its contours are already visible to anyone willing to read the signs. Politics, like history, leaves clues. And the recent Federal Capital Territory (FCT) Area Council elections, alongside parallel electoral exercises in parts of Rivers and Kano States, have provided more than clues. They have offered a preview.
The message from the FCT was neither ambiguous nor accidental.
The All Progressives Congress (APC) secured five of the six chairmanship seats, flipping the Abuja Municipal Area Council (AMAC), Bwari, and Kuje from the Peoples Democratic Party, leaving the opposition with only Gwagwalada. In AMAC, the most populous and politically symbolic council in the nation’s capital, the APC did not merely win; it dominated, polling over 40,000 votes, more than triple the tally of its closest challenger. In Nigeria’s political heartbeat, voters spoke with clarity.
This was not just a council election. It was a temperature check. And the temperature suggests that President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s political machinery is not only intact but also expanding.
Those who dismiss local elections as inconsequential misunderstand Nigerian political dynamics. The FCT is not just any territory; it is the seat of power, the melting pot of Nigeria’s elite and grassroots political currents. When the ruling party strengthens its grip there, it signals organisational discipline, voter mobilisation capacity, and strategic coherence. It also reveals something more uncomfortable for the opposition: fragmentation. What even makes the victory more compelling is that APC has never won AMAC in Council or the FCT in Presidential elections. But just as it flipped in 2026 for AMAC, this could be the trajectory in 2027, not only in the Nation’s Capital but across the country.
While the APC consolidates, the opposition continues to splinter. Personal ambitions eclipse collective strategy. Coalition talks rise and collapse in cycles of distrust. Meanwhile, key political figures across party lines quietly align with Tinubu’s centre of gravity. Today, more than 30 governors, including some outside the APC fold, are considered allies of the President. In Nigerian politics, that is not a coincidence. It is architecture.
Tinubu did not arrive at this moment by accident. For over two decades, he has cultivated alliances, mentored political actors, built networks that transcend ethnicity and region, and demonstrated a rare capacity for long-term strategy. From Lagos to the national stage, he has shown an ability to think beyond electoral cycles. His 2023 victory was the product of patience and preparation. His governance since then reflects consolidation.
Critics predicted collapse when he removed fuel subsidies and unified the exchange rate. They foresaw a political implosion as reforms tightened liquidity and global inflation surged. Yet, against a backdrop of inherited fiscal strain and near-monetary instability, the administration has steadied the ship of macroeconomics. The Naira has shown signs of recovery. Food prices, while still sensitive, have begun to ease in several markets. Investor confidence is cautiously returning. None of this suggests perfection. But it does signal resilience.
Politics rewards resilience. The FCT results, therefore, are not merely about council chairpersons. They are about perception. Voters in the capital had an opportunity to register a protest. Instead, they reinforced the ruling party. That reinforcement carries symbolic weight. It suggests that, at least for now, the reform pain has not translated into wholesale rejection.
Beyond Abuja, similar patterns in Rivers and Kano further underscore a broader national trend: the ruling party is organised; its rivals are reactive.
If elections were solely about sentiment, 2027 might still be unpredictable. But elections are about structure: polling units, ward agents, coalition discipline, voter databases, and resource mobilisation. On those metrics, the APC appears several steps ahead.
One might even argue, cautiously but realistically, that the next presidential contest is shaping up less like a battlefield and more like a procession, with the final destination a “coronation” of President Bola Ahmed Tinubu for his second term.
This is not to diminish the democratic imperative of competition. Democracy demands opposition. It thrives on alternatives. But effective opposition requires coherence, not cacophony. At present, Nigeria’s opposition landscape is characterised more by internal recalibration than collective mobilisation.
Tinubu, meanwhile, continues to consolidate elite consensus while maintaining grassroots engagement. His style may be deliberate, sometimes opaque, but it is rarely impulsive. He understands the arithmetic of power: governors influence state machinery; state machinery influences turnout; turnout influences outcomes.
That arithmetic is already aligning. Therefore, to describe his anticipated re-election as a “coronation” may sound dramatic. Yet politics often moves long before ballots are cast. Momentum, once built, acquires its own inevitability. The FCT elections were not the cause of that momentum; they were evidence of it.
Could unforeseen variables emerge? Certainly, Nigerian politics is famously dynamic. Economic shocks, security challenges, or breakthroughs in coalition dynamics can quickly reshape landscapes. But as of today, the trajectory is unmistakable.
President Tinubu has outmanoeuvred rivals before. He has demonstrated the patience to endure criticism and the strategic instinct to expand alliances. With a consolidated ruling party, cross-party gubernatorial alignment, and early electoral signals tilting in his favour, 2027 increasingly appears less a question of “if” and more a question of margin.
History often whispers before it announces. The FCT has whispered. And if the opposition continues on its present course: divided, reactive, and organisationally thin, then the 2027 presidential election may well confirm what these early signals already suggest: that President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s second term is not merely probable, but politically inevitable.
Obioha is the Director of Strategy at the Hope Alive Initiative (HAI), a group dedicated to good governance in Nigeria.
Tinubu: The FCT Verdict and Inevitability of 2027
News
Unlocking the Benefits of Zero-Tariff Measures to Elevate the China–Africa Community with a Shared Future to a New Level
Unlocking the Benefits of Zero-Tariff Measures to Elevate the China–Africa Community with a Shared Future to a New Level
By Yu Dunhai,
On May 1 this year, China will fully implement zero-tariff measures for 53 African countries that have diplomatic relations with China. This represents a concrete step by China to expand high-level opening up and deepen China–Africa cooperation. As the policy enters its implementation phase, China–Nigeria cooperation is also reaching a critical juncture, transitioning from an “opportunity window” to the delivery of tangible outcomes.
This measure is characterized by comprehensive coverage. Previously, China had already granted zero-tariff treatment on 100 percent of tariff lines to 33 least developed African countries. Starting May 1, China will further extend zero-tariff arrangements, through preferential tariff rates, to 20 non-least developed African countries, including Nigeria, thereby achieving full coverage of all African countries with diplomatic relations with China. As a result, China has become the first major economy in the world to unilaterally implement comprehensive zero-tariff treatment for all such countries, demonstrating through concrete actions its commitment to providing market opportunities to African partners.
Zero tariffs measures directly reduce the cost of Nigerian products entering the Chinese market. From sesame, ginger, and cashews to cocoa and other specialty agricultural products, as long as they meet rules of origin as well as inspection and quarantine requirements, they can access the Chinese market more smoothly. This “channel effect” helps translate potential demand into stable orders and convert market opportunities into tangible benefits.
Beyond enabling products to be “sold,” this measure will also help them be “sold better.” The removal of tariffs will both encourage and incentivize enterprises to improve quality standards, optimize product structures, and strengthen brand development, thereby supporting sustainable growth in China’s high-standard market. As export volumes expand and quality improves, the international reputation of “Made in Nigeria” will be further enhanced.
From a broader perspective, the measure will promote localized value addition, inject new momentum into Nigeria’s industrialization and agricultural modernization, create employment opportunities, and improve livelihoods. Clear and stable expectations for exports to China will attract increased domestic and foreign investment into sectors such as agriculture, food processing, mineral processing, and manufacturing. Value addition through local processing prior to export will help extend industrial chains and stimulate the development of supporting industries, including R&D, quality inspection, packaging, warehousing, and logistics. In this way, Nigeria will be better positioned to transition from primary commodity exports to more diversified, higher value-added exports, enhancing the resilience and dynamism of its economy.
Whether the benefits of zero-tariff measures can be fully realized ultimately depends on effective implementation. African producers and exporters, including those in Nigeria, are encouraged to proactively align with Chinese market requirements in terms of product quality, supply reliability, and brand promotion. China will work closely with Nigeria and other African countries to create an even more enabling environment for expanding exports to China. This includes providing technical support through capacity-building programs, enhancing trade facilitation through “green channels” for agricultural products, and welcoming Nigerian enterprises to actively participate in major platforms such as the China International Import Expo, the Canton Fair, and the China–Africa Economic and Trade Expo to connect with buyers and promote their products. We also look forward to close coordination with relevant Nigerian authorities to ensure that products meet applicable origin rules, inspection and quarantine standards, and other regulatory requirements.
The zero-tariff arrangement is an innovative, phased, and pioneering measure in the ongoing negotiations on the Agreement on Economic Partnership for Shared Development between China and African countries. This agreement will more comprehensively reduce both tariff and non-tariff barriers, enhance trade and investment facilitation, and deepen cooperation across a range of development areas, thereby providing long-term, stable, and predictable institutional support for mutually beneficial cooperation between China and Nigeria.
Against the backdrop of persistent geopolitical tensions, global economic headwinds, and rising unilateralism and protectionism, China’s commitment to expanding opening up, while focusing on Africa’s development priorities and sharing the opportunities of its vast market and modernization, demonstrates both responsibility and strategic foresight. China stands ready to work with Nigeria to ensure that zero-tariff measures take root and deliver real results, advancing Africa’s modernization and elevating the China–Africa community with a shared future to a new level.
Yu Dunhai, is Chinese Ambassador to Nigeria
Unlocking the Benefits of Zero-Tariff Measures to Elevate the China–Africa Community with a Shared Future to a New Level
News
Fuel Hike Crisis: NHRC Warns Nigerian Workers at Breaking Point, Demands Urgent Government Action
Fuel Hike Crisis: NHRC Warns Nigerian Workers at Breaking Point, Demands Urgent Government Action
By: Michael Mike
Nigeria’s worsening cost-of-living crisis came under sharp scrutiny on Thursday as the National Human Rights Commission (NHRC) issued a strong warning that rising fuel prices and systemic economic pressures are pushing workers deeper into hardship, urging immediate government intervention to avert further deterioration.
In a statement marking International Workers’ Day 2026, the Commission’s Executive Secretary, Tony Ojukwu, said the recent petrol price hikes have triggered a chain reaction of economic strain, with transportation costs soaring beyond the reach of average Nigerians and severely eroding workers’ incomes.
He warned that the daily reality for millions of workers—particularly those dependent on commuting—has become increasingly unsustainable, with productivity declining as basic mobility becomes a luxury rather than a necessity. According to him, the situation is steadily undermining not just economic stability but also the dignity of labour in the country.
While acknowledging federal efforts to mitigate the effects of global inflation and economic reforms, the NHRC stressed that such measures have yet to translate into meaningful relief for citizens facing immediate and severe financial pressure. The Commission argued that the gap between policy intentions and lived realities continues to widen.
The NHRC identified transportation as a critical pressure point, noting that the absence of a functional and affordable public transport system has amplified the impact of fuel price increases. It cautioned that without urgent corrective measures, a significant portion of the workforce risks sliding further into economic vulnerability.
Beyond fuel and transport costs, Ojukwu drew attention to entrenched structural challenges worsening the crisis. These include controversial estimated electricity billing practices, persistent metering gaps, rising housing costs, and limited access to quality healthcare under the National Health Insurance framework. He also flagged recurring industrial actions in the health sector, attributing them to poor welfare conditions that ultimately affect both workers and the broader population.
The Commission further raised concerns over wage disparities among workers performing similar roles, calling for transparent and equitable salary harmonisation across sectors. It described delays in the payment of retirement benefits as a grave injustice, warning that such practices strip retirees of dignity and financial security after years of service.
Although the NHRC acknowledged ongoing investments in the railway sector, it insisted that broader and more inclusive transport solutions are urgently needed nationwide to ease the burden on workers.
Framing the crisis in rights-based terms, Ojukwu emphasized that the current economic hardship is not merely a fiscal issue but a human rights concern requiring immediate, people-centered responses. He called on all levels of government to adopt practical policies that directly improve living standards and safeguard workers’ welfare.
As Nigeria joins the rest of the world to mark Workers’ Day, the Commission delivered a blunt message: economic reforms must not come at the expense of citizens’ dignity. Without deliberate protections, it warned, Nigerian workers will continue to shoulder disproportionate hardship in a system that offers little relief.
Fuel Hike Crisis: NHRC Warns Nigerian Workers at Breaking Point, Demands Urgent Government Action
News
Troops Recover Rifle, Ammunition During Clearance Operation in Borno
Troops Recover Rifle, Ammunition During Clearance Operation in Borno
By: Zagazola Makama
Troops of 403 Amphibious Brigade, in collaboration with members of the Civilian Joint Task Force (CJTF), have recovered arms and ammunition during a clearance operation along a major supply route in Borno State.
Security sources told Zagazola that the recovery was made at about 12:00 p.m. on April 29 during a shoulder clearance operation along the Baga–Cross Kauwa road in Kukawa Local Government Area.

The sources said the operation, conducted by troops alongside Explosive Ordnance Disposal (EOD) personnel and civilian volunteers, was part of ongoing efforts to secure the main supply route and prevent insurgent activities.
According to the sources, items recovered include one AK-47 rifle, one magazine and 30 rounds of 7.62mm special ammunition.

They added that no contact was made with any suspected terrorists during the operation, which was carried out successfully without incident.
The sources said troops would continue clearance and surveillance operations to ensure sustained security along key routes in the area.
Troops Recover Rifle, Ammunition During Clearance Operation in Borno
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