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Tinubu: The FCT Verdict and Inevitability of 2027
Tinubu: The FCT Verdict and Inevitability of 2027
By Jude Obioha
The 2027 presidential election may still be months away, but its contours are already visible to anyone willing to read the signs. Politics, like history, leaves clues. And the recent Federal Capital Territory (FCT) Area Council elections, alongside parallel electoral exercises in parts of Rivers and Kano States, have provided more than clues. They have offered a preview.
The message from the FCT was neither ambiguous nor accidental.
The All Progressives Congress (APC) secured five of the six chairmanship seats, flipping the Abuja Municipal Area Council (AMAC), Bwari, and Kuje from the Peoples Democratic Party, leaving the opposition with only Gwagwalada. In AMAC, the most populous and politically symbolic council in the nation’s capital, the APC did not merely win; it dominated, polling over 40,000 votes, more than triple the tally of its closest challenger. In Nigeria’s political heartbeat, voters spoke with clarity.
This was not just a council election. It was a temperature check. And the temperature suggests that President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s political machinery is not only intact but also expanding.
Those who dismiss local elections as inconsequential misunderstand Nigerian political dynamics. The FCT is not just any territory; it is the seat of power, the melting pot of Nigeria’s elite and grassroots political currents. When the ruling party strengthens its grip there, it signals organisational discipline, voter mobilisation capacity, and strategic coherence. It also reveals something more uncomfortable for the opposition: fragmentation. What even makes the victory more compelling is that APC has never won AMAC in Council or the FCT in Presidential elections. But just as it flipped in 2026 for AMAC, this could be the trajectory in 2027, not only in the Nation’s Capital but across the country.
While the APC consolidates, the opposition continues to splinter. Personal ambitions eclipse collective strategy. Coalition talks rise and collapse in cycles of distrust. Meanwhile, key political figures across party lines quietly align with Tinubu’s centre of gravity. Today, more than 30 governors, including some outside the APC fold, are considered allies of the President. In Nigerian politics, that is not a coincidence. It is architecture.
Tinubu did not arrive at this moment by accident. For over two decades, he has cultivated alliances, mentored political actors, built networks that transcend ethnicity and region, and demonstrated a rare capacity for long-term strategy. From Lagos to the national stage, he has shown an ability to think beyond electoral cycles. His 2023 victory was the product of patience and preparation. His governance since then reflects consolidation.
Critics predicted collapse when he removed fuel subsidies and unified the exchange rate. They foresaw a political implosion as reforms tightened liquidity and global inflation surged. Yet, against a backdrop of inherited fiscal strain and near-monetary instability, the administration has steadied the ship of macroeconomics. The Naira has shown signs of recovery. Food prices, while still sensitive, have begun to ease in several markets. Investor confidence is cautiously returning. None of this suggests perfection. But it does signal resilience.
Politics rewards resilience. The FCT results, therefore, are not merely about council chairpersons. They are about perception. Voters in the capital had an opportunity to register a protest. Instead, they reinforced the ruling party. That reinforcement carries symbolic weight. It suggests that, at least for now, the reform pain has not translated into wholesale rejection.
Beyond Abuja, similar patterns in Rivers and Kano further underscore a broader national trend: the ruling party is organised; its rivals are reactive.
If elections were solely about sentiment, 2027 might still be unpredictable. But elections are about structure: polling units, ward agents, coalition discipline, voter databases, and resource mobilisation. On those metrics, the APC appears several steps ahead.
One might even argue, cautiously but realistically, that the next presidential contest is shaping up less like a battlefield and more like a procession, with the final destination a “coronation” of President Bola Ahmed Tinubu for his second term.
This is not to diminish the democratic imperative of competition. Democracy demands opposition. It thrives on alternatives. But effective opposition requires coherence, not cacophony. At present, Nigeria’s opposition landscape is characterised more by internal recalibration than collective mobilisation.
Tinubu, meanwhile, continues to consolidate elite consensus while maintaining grassroots engagement. His style may be deliberate, sometimes opaque, but it is rarely impulsive. He understands the arithmetic of power: governors influence state machinery; state machinery influences turnout; turnout influences outcomes.
That arithmetic is already aligning. Therefore, to describe his anticipated re-election as a “coronation” may sound dramatic. Yet politics often moves long before ballots are cast. Momentum, once built, acquires its own inevitability. The FCT elections were not the cause of that momentum; they were evidence of it.
Could unforeseen variables emerge? Certainly, Nigerian politics is famously dynamic. Economic shocks, security challenges, or breakthroughs in coalition dynamics can quickly reshape landscapes. But as of today, the trajectory is unmistakable.
President Tinubu has outmanoeuvred rivals before. He has demonstrated the patience to endure criticism and the strategic instinct to expand alliances. With a consolidated ruling party, cross-party gubernatorial alignment, and early electoral signals tilting in his favour, 2027 increasingly appears less a question of “if” and more a question of margin.
History often whispers before it announces. The FCT has whispered. And if the opposition continues on its present course: divided, reactive, and organisationally thin, then the 2027 presidential election may well confirm what these early signals already suggest: that President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s second term is not merely probable, but politically inevitable.
Obioha is the Director of Strategy at the Hope Alive Initiative (HAI), a group dedicated to good governance in Nigeria.
Tinubu: The FCT Verdict and Inevitability of 2027
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Senate to Enact Stronger Laws to Tackle Rising Drug Abuse
Senate to Enact Stronger Laws to Tackle Rising Drug Abuse
By: Michael Mike
The Senate Committee on Drugs and Narcotics has thrown its weight behind the National Drug Law Enforcement Agency (NDLEA), pledging stronger legislative backing and tougher laws to support the country’s escalating battle against substance abuse and illicit drug trafficking.
The commitment came on Monday during a courtesy visit by the newly appointed Chairman of the Senate Committee on Drugs and Narcotics, Senator Joseph Ikpea, to the Chairman/Chief Executive Officer of NDLEA, Brigadier General Mohamed Buba Marwa (rtd), at the agency’s national headquarters in Abuja.

In a move that signals renewed collaboration between the National Assembly and the anti-narcotics agency, Ikpea assured Marwa that the Senate would provide the legal and policy support needed to strengthen drug control efforts, expand rehabilitation programmes and intensify preventive campaigns among Nigerian youths.
The senator, who represents Edo Central Senatorial District, said his visit was aimed at fostering a closer partnership with NDLEA and learning from Marwa’s experience in public service.
“I am here to learn and partner with you so that our children who have gone into drug abuse can be rehabilitated, while others are prevented from falling into the drug trap through massive awareness creation and sensitisation programmes,” Ikpea said.
He praised Marwa’s record as former Military Governor of old Borno State, former Military Administrator of Lagos State and his leadership of NDLEA, describing him as a committed and result-oriented public servant.

According to him, the Senate is ready to support the agency through legislative interventions and reforms capable of addressing the growing drug menace in the country.
“We are happy to work with you and support you in all of these because we know you are already doing a great job but not getting as much as you need to do the work. We will partner with you through legislative support and necessary laws to subdue the drug problem in our country,” he stated.
Responding, Marwa described drug abuse and trafficking as a major threat driving several social and security challenges in Nigeria and across the world.
He, however, said NDLEA had recorded significant successes in recent years, including dismantling major transnational drug cartels, arresting high-profile drug barons and weakening criminal networks through the seizure and forfeiture of assets linked to illicit drug operations.
Marwa attributed the agency’s achievements to the support of President Bola Tinubu, the National Assembly and the judiciary.
“The drug problem is a major challenge that is at the root of some other social issues, not only in Nigeria but globally. However, we are doing our level best to curb the scourge and we are getting impressive results,” he said.
The NDLEA boss assured the committee chairman of the agency’s readiness to deepen collaboration with the Senate in advancing both drug supply reduction and drug demand reduction strategies nationwide.
He expressed confidence that Ikpea’s leadership of the Senate committee would further strengthen the national response to drug abuse and trafficking.
The meeting comes amid growing concerns over rising substance abuse among young Nigerians and increasing efforts by authorities to dismantle organised drug trafficking networks operating within and outside the country.
Senate to Enact Stronger Laws to Tackle Rising Drug Abuse
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How dialogue, military intervention prevented fresh bloodshed in Benue communities
How dialogue, military intervention prevented fresh bloodshed in Benue communities
By: Zagazola Makama
For years, communities across Guma Local Government Area of Benue lived under the constant fear of attacks, reprisals and counter-reprisals that often turned minor disputes into deadly cycles of violence.
But according to the Commanding Officer of the Chief of Army Staff (COAS) Special Intervention Battalion 11, Lt.-Col. Donatus Otobo, a combination of military presence, community engagement and conflict mediation is gradually changing the narrative.
Speaking during a tour of his area of responsibility by defence correspondents on Tuesday, Otobo recounted several incidents that underscored the fragility of peace in the area and the delicate task facing troops deployed to maintain stability.
The commander described a disturbing incident involving an 11-year-old herder whose ordeal nearly triggered another round of communal violence.
According to him, the young boy was tending cattle around November when he was attacked by some locals who severed one of his hands.
“The boy was only 11 years old. We had to intervene quickly, rescue him and evacuate him to a military hospital for treatment.
“He spent about a month receiving medical care before he was reunited with his family,” Otoogu said.
However, what followed reinforced the battalion’s concerns about the dangerous cycle of revenge that has fuelled many conflicts in the area.
The commander said that barely two days after the boy returned home, another attack occurred in which two victims suffered similar injuries.
“From what we observed, it appeared to be a reprisal attack.
“That is the reality we face here. One incident triggers another, and before long, communities become trapped in a cycle of revenge,” he said.
Otobo noted that while public attention often focuses on attacks by armed groups, there are also numerous cases where unarmed herders become targets of violence.
According to him, troops have repeatedly intervened to prevent such incidents from escalating into wider communal conflicts.
“There are situations where herders who are not carrying weapons are attacked alongside their livestock.
“Sometimes their cattle are rustled, killed or butchered. We have responded to cases where dozens of cattle were either stolen or slaughtered.
“In one particular case, herders reported losing about 130 cattle. When we arrived, we could only physically account for about 60.
“The scene was disturbing. There were carcasses, blood stains, horns and evidence of widespread destruction,” he said.
The commander explained that such incidents often create fertile ground for retaliatory violence.
He said one cattle-rustling incident in particular had all the ingredients of a major crisis similar to previous large-scale attacks experienced in parts of Benue.
“That situation was a ticking time bomb.
“It could easily have degenerated into another major communal crisis if we had not intervened promptly,” he said.
Otobo said troops immediately engaged traditional rulers, community leaders, herder representatives and other stakeholders to calm tensions and prevent reprisals.
According to him, the sustained dialogue paid off, as the incident did not trigger further violence despite widespread anger among those affected.
“We brought together community leaders, elders and Fulani representatives.
“We listened to grievances from all sides and encouraged restraint.
“That incident happened more than seven months ago, and thankfully it did not escalate into a broader conflict,” he said.
The commander also offered insights into the factors that may have contributed to the deadly Yelwata attack that shocked the state.
He said findings from military investigations suggested that tensions had been building months before the incident.
“From our own investigation, the chain of events started around April when some criminals attacked herders, killed some of them and rustled about 100 cattle.
“The affected individuals apparently went away, regrouped and later returned.
“By June, the situation had escalated into the Yelwata attack,” he said.
Otobo stressed that the lesson from such incidents is that unresolved grievances, if ignored, can eventually snowball into major security crises.
He noted that Yelwata, which now falls under the battalion’s area of responsibility, has remained peaceful due to proactive security measures and constant engagement with residents.
According to him, community leaders specifically requested the deployment of troops from the COAS Special Intervention Battalion to maintain security in the area.
“Today, Yelwata is peaceful, and that is one of the achievements we are proud of.
“The people themselves requested that our troops remain there because of the confidence they have in our operations,” he said.
Otobo further disclosed that the security situation had improved significantly, particularly regarding the presence of armed herders.
He said reports of herders openly carrying assault rifles, which were once common, had virtually disappeared within the battalion’s area of responsibility.
“As I speak to you, since December last year, there has not been a single reported sighting of armed herders within our area of responsibility.
“Previously, farmers would regularly report seeing herders carrying AK-47 rifles.
“Today, those reports have stopped completely,” he said.
The commander attributed the improvement to sustained military operations and continuous engagement with both farming and herding communities.
He said troops regularly hold meetings with residents to educate them on the consequences of cattle rustling, reprisals and other actions capable of reigniting tensions.
“We constantly engage the communities and explain the dangers of taking the law into their own hands.
“We encourage them to report grievances through established channels rather than resorting to violence.
“I believe that has contributed significantly to the peace we are witnessing today,” he said.
The return of Guma and surrounding communities, the return of calm has translated into something they had almost forgotten, the ability to farm, trade and move freely without fear.
Yet Otobo believes the greatest achievement is not the absence of attacks, but the gradual rebuilding of trust among communities long divided by conflict.
“The military can provide security, but lasting peace comes when communities learn to coexist and resolve disputes peacefully.
“That is the direction we are working towards, and we will continue to support every effort that promotes peace and stability in this area,” he said.
How dialogue, military intervention prevented fresh bloodshed in Benue communities
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Alleged Cybercrime: Court Revokes Sowore’s Bail, Issues Bench Warrant Over Failure To Appear In Court
Alleged Cybercrime: Court Revokes Sowore’s Bail, Issues Bench Warrant Over Failure To Appear In Court
The Federal High Court in Abuja, on Tuesday, issued a bench warrant for the arrest of online publisher and African Action Congress (AAC) presidential candidate, Omoyele Sowore, following his failure to appear in court as a defendant in the ongoing alleged criminal defamation suit brought against him by the Department of State Services (DSS).
Justice Mohammed Garba Umar ordered that Sowore be remanded at the Kuje Correctional Centre and brought before him on the next adjourned date being June 22, 2026 for ruling on the application he filed for recusal.
The judge had last December granted the politician bail based on self-recognition. He had at the time declined a request by counsel to the DSS, Akinlolu Kehinde, SAN, to issue an arrest warrant after Sowore and his lawyer failed to appear in court for trial.
However, at the resumption of trial on Tuesday, neither Sowore nor his lawyer was present in court. This prompted counsel to the prosecution to apply to the court for a revocation of the bail and the issuance of a bench warrant. The prosecution described Sowore’s absence as “delay tactics”.
The DSS had filed a five-count charge against Sowore over social media posts in which he referred to President Bola Tinubu as a “criminal”. Efforts by the secret police to make him pull down the post were rebuffed by the politician, who insisted that it was within his fundamental human right to freedom of speech to post as he liked. This prompted the DSS to file charges of criminal defamation against him.
Last month, the trial judge rejected Sowore’s “no-case submission,” ruling that the prosecution had established a prima facie case against him. In response, Sowore and his legal team accused the judge of bias and requested that he recuse himself.
Alleged Cybercrime: Court Revokes Sowore’s Bail, Issues Bench Warrant Over Failure To Appear In Court
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