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Tinubu: The FCT Verdict and Inevitability of 2027
Tinubu: The FCT Verdict and Inevitability of 2027
By Jude Obioha
The 2027 presidential election may still be months away, but its contours are already visible to anyone willing to read the signs. Politics, like history, leaves clues. And the recent Federal Capital Territory (FCT) Area Council elections, alongside parallel electoral exercises in parts of Rivers and Kano States, have provided more than clues. They have offered a preview.
The message from the FCT was neither ambiguous nor accidental.
The All Progressives Congress (APC) secured five of the six chairmanship seats, flipping the Abuja Municipal Area Council (AMAC), Bwari, and Kuje from the Peoples Democratic Party, leaving the opposition with only Gwagwalada. In AMAC, the most populous and politically symbolic council in the nation’s capital, the APC did not merely win; it dominated, polling over 40,000 votes, more than triple the tally of its closest challenger. In Nigeria’s political heartbeat, voters spoke with clarity.
This was not just a council election. It was a temperature check. And the temperature suggests that President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s political machinery is not only intact but also expanding.
Those who dismiss local elections as inconsequential misunderstand Nigerian political dynamics. The FCT is not just any territory; it is the seat of power, the melting pot of Nigeria’s elite and grassroots political currents. When the ruling party strengthens its grip there, it signals organisational discipline, voter mobilisation capacity, and strategic coherence. It also reveals something more uncomfortable for the opposition: fragmentation. What even makes the victory more compelling is that APC has never won AMAC in Council or the FCT in Presidential elections. But just as it flipped in 2026 for AMAC, this could be the trajectory in 2027, not only in the Nation’s Capital but across the country.
While the APC consolidates, the opposition continues to splinter. Personal ambitions eclipse collective strategy. Coalition talks rise and collapse in cycles of distrust. Meanwhile, key political figures across party lines quietly align with Tinubu’s centre of gravity. Today, more than 30 governors, including some outside the APC fold, are considered allies of the President. In Nigerian politics, that is not a coincidence. It is architecture.
Tinubu did not arrive at this moment by accident. For over two decades, he has cultivated alliances, mentored political actors, built networks that transcend ethnicity and region, and demonstrated a rare capacity for long-term strategy. From Lagos to the national stage, he has shown an ability to think beyond electoral cycles. His 2023 victory was the product of patience and preparation. His governance since then reflects consolidation.
Critics predicted collapse when he removed fuel subsidies and unified the exchange rate. They foresaw a political implosion as reforms tightened liquidity and global inflation surged. Yet, against a backdrop of inherited fiscal strain and near-monetary instability, the administration has steadied the ship of macroeconomics. The Naira has shown signs of recovery. Food prices, while still sensitive, have begun to ease in several markets. Investor confidence is cautiously returning. None of this suggests perfection. But it does signal resilience.
Politics rewards resilience. The FCT results, therefore, are not merely about council chairpersons. They are about perception. Voters in the capital had an opportunity to register a protest. Instead, they reinforced the ruling party. That reinforcement carries symbolic weight. It suggests that, at least for now, the reform pain has not translated into wholesale rejection.
Beyond Abuja, similar patterns in Rivers and Kano further underscore a broader national trend: the ruling party is organised; its rivals are reactive.
If elections were solely about sentiment, 2027 might still be unpredictable. But elections are about structure: polling units, ward agents, coalition discipline, voter databases, and resource mobilisation. On those metrics, the APC appears several steps ahead.
One might even argue, cautiously but realistically, that the next presidential contest is shaping up less like a battlefield and more like a procession, with the final destination a “coronation” of President Bola Ahmed Tinubu for his second term.
This is not to diminish the democratic imperative of competition. Democracy demands opposition. It thrives on alternatives. But effective opposition requires coherence, not cacophony. At present, Nigeria’s opposition landscape is characterised more by internal recalibration than collective mobilisation.
Tinubu, meanwhile, continues to consolidate elite consensus while maintaining grassroots engagement. His style may be deliberate, sometimes opaque, but it is rarely impulsive. He understands the arithmetic of power: governors influence state machinery; state machinery influences turnout; turnout influences outcomes.
That arithmetic is already aligning. Therefore, to describe his anticipated re-election as a “coronation” may sound dramatic. Yet politics often moves long before ballots are cast. Momentum, once built, acquires its own inevitability. The FCT elections were not the cause of that momentum; they were evidence of it.
Could unforeseen variables emerge? Certainly, Nigerian politics is famously dynamic. Economic shocks, security challenges, or breakthroughs in coalition dynamics can quickly reshape landscapes. But as of today, the trajectory is unmistakable.
President Tinubu has outmanoeuvred rivals before. He has demonstrated the patience to endure criticism and the strategic instinct to expand alliances. With a consolidated ruling party, cross-party gubernatorial alignment, and early electoral signals tilting in his favour, 2027 increasingly appears less a question of “if” and more a question of margin.
History often whispers before it announces. The FCT has whispered. And if the opposition continues on its present course: divided, reactive, and organisationally thin, then the 2027 presidential election may well confirm what these early signals already suggest: that President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s second term is not merely probable, but politically inevitable.
Obioha is the Director of Strategy at the Hope Alive Initiative (HAI), a group dedicated to good governance in Nigeria.
Tinubu: The FCT Verdict and Inevitability of 2027
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Notorious bandit commander Iliya Mai Rasha killed in Guga battle as death toll among attackers rises
Notorious bandit commander Iliya Mai Rasha killed in Guga battle as death toll among attackers rises
By Zagazola Makama
One of the notorious bandit commanders neutralised during Sunday’s fierce gun battle between security forces and armed bandits in Guga Village, Bakori Local Government Area of Katsina State, has been identified as Iliya Mai Rasha, a notorious criminal linked to several deadly attacks in Tsafe Local Government Area of Zamfara State.
Intelligence sources told Zagazola Makama that Mai Rasha was among the senior bandit commanders who joined the assault on Guga at the invitation of notorious kingpin Idi Abasu Aiki.
The sources said the attack, which occurred at about 5:40 p.m. on July 26, involved more than 200 heavily armed bandits drawn from criminal networks operating across Katsina and neighbouring Zamfara State.
However, a combined force of local hunters, the Katsina State Community Watch Corps (KSCWC), and troops of the Nigerian Army’s 17 Brigade mounted a coordinated response, engaging the attackers in a prolonged gun battle that forced them to retreat with heavy losses.
Security sources said more than 40 bandits were neutralised during the encounter, including at least eight senior commanders, while Idi Abasu Aiki reportedly sustained life-threatening gunshot wounds.
The killing of Iliya Mai Rasha is considered a significant operational success, as he had long been linked to violent attacks, kidnappings and other criminal activities in Tsafe and adjoining communities in Zamfara State.
The operation, according to the sources, has dealt a major blow to the criminal network operating across the Katsina–Zamfara axis, with follow-up clearance operations continuing to recover abandoned weapons and pursue fleeing bandits.
Five members of the hunters’ team were, however, killed during the operation after they were caught outside the frontline, highlighting the heavy sacrifice made by local security volunteers in defending their communities. Military authorities and the Katsina State Government have continued to commend the courage of the troops, hunters and community watch personnel who repelled the attack and restored calm to the affected area.
Notorious bandit commander Iliya Mai Rasha killed in Guga battle as death toll among attackers rises
News
ICPC Pushes Fresh Anti-Corruption Reforms in Health, Education, Warns Against Weak Governance
ICPC Pushes Fresh Anti-Corruption Reforms in Health, Education, Warns Against Weak Governance
By: Michael Mike
The Independent Corrupt Practices and Other Related Offences Commission (ICPC) has intensified its preventive anti-corruption campaign, unveiling three follow-up assessment reports that expose lingering governance gaps in Nigeria’s health and education sectors while urging sweeping institutional reforms to strengthen accountability and service delivery.
The reports, presented in Abuja on Monday, reviewed the implementation of earlier anti-corruption recommendations issued to the National Health Insurance Authority (NHIA), the National Primary Health Care Development Agency (NPHCDA), the Universal Basic Education Commission (UBEC) and selected State Universal Basic Education Boards (SUBEBs).
Speaking at the presentation, ICPC Chairman, Dr. Musa Aliyu (SAN), said the exercise underscored the Commission’s growing emphasis on preventing corruption by strengthening institutional systems rather than relying solely on prosecutions.

Aliyu explained that the Commission’s mandate under the Corrupt Practices and Other Related Offences Act empowers it to identify vulnerabilities within public institutions and recommend reforms capable of preventing corruption before it occurs.
He said the follow-up assessments measured the extent to which previous recommendations had been implemented, identified areas of progress, highlighted unresolved weaknesses and proposed further reforms to improve institutional performance.
“The value of system studies and corruption risk assessments lies not merely in producing reports but in implementing their recommendations. Their true impact is measured by improvements in governance, accountability, transparency, operational efficiency and service delivery,” he said.
According to him, the reviews were not designed to apportion blame but to encourage continuous institutional improvement and reinforce accountability across government agencies.
Aliyu noted that the NHIA, NPHCDA and UBEC were selected because of their strategic roles in delivering essential healthcare and education services to millions of Nigerians, stressing that stronger governance in the agencies would help safeguard public funds, improve service delivery and restore public confidence in government institutions.
While acknowledging that the institutions had implemented several recommendations from previous assessments, he maintained that significant reforms were still required.
He commended the leadership of the agencies for the progress recorded and urged them to sustain the reform momentum by implementing outstanding recommendations.
“The fight against corruption cannot be won through enforcement alone. Sustainable success depends on building resilient institutions with transparent systems, robust internal controls, effective oversight mechanisms and a culture of accountability,” Aliyu said.
He reaffirmed the Commission’s commitment to collaborating with Ministries, Departments and Agencies (MDAs), oversight institutions, development partners and civil society organisations to ensure effective implementation and monitoring of the recommendations.
Aliyu also acknowledged the support of the European Union-backed Rule of Law and Anti-Corruption (RoLAC II) Programme and the Centre for Social Justice (CSJ), which partnered with the Commission on the review process.
Earlier, the Lead Director of the Centre for Social Justice (CSJ), Eze Onyekpere, warned that corruption risk assessments would have little impact unless their recommendations translated into measurable institutional reforms.
He explained that the reviews formed part of the European Union-supported Rule of Law and Anti-Corruption Programme II aimed at strengthening Nigeria’s anti-corruption processes at both national and sub-national levels.
Onyekpere identified persistent corruption risks across the health and education sectors, including leakages in health insurance payments, diversion of medicines and vaccines, ghost workers in primary healthcare facilities, fraudulent enrolment practices, procurement irregularities, abandoned school projects and weak oversight of public funds.
He described corruption risk assessments as critical diagnostic tools that enable governments to detect and address systemic weaknesses before they undermine public service delivery.
“Our collective responsibility is to ensure that NHIA resources provide quality healthcare to beneficiaries, that medicines and vaccines reach intended patients, and that UBEC funds translate into better classrooms, improved learning outcomes and a brighter future for Nigerian children,” he said.
Onyekpere advocated wider deployment of digital governance systems, including integrated platforms that would allow citizens to monitor health insurance enrolment, primary healthcare services and education projects in real time.
He also recommended the institutionalisation of end-to-end electronic procurement, stronger whistleblower protection, improved staff welfare and capacity building, enhanced independent oversight mechanisms and greater deployment of technology to reduce human discretion in public administration.
Also speaking, Chairman of the Federal Civil Service Commission, Prof. Tunji Olaopa, said corruption prevention through institutional reforms offers a more sustainable solution than relying exclusively on law enforcement.
He commended the ICPC for prioritising system reviews and integrity plans, noting that transparent governance structures remain the strongest defence against corruption.
Olaopa urged public institutions to embrace technology-driven governance, transparent recruitment, conflict-of-interest declarations, stronger internal audit systems and ethical leadership, while challenging government agencies to move beyond mere compliance and institutionalise continuous reforms that promote prudent management of public resources.
The latest ICPC reports come amid increasing calls for public sector reforms as concerns grow over leakages, inefficiency and weak accountability in critical sectors responsible for healthcare and education delivery across the country.
ICPC Pushes Fresh Anti-Corruption Reforms in Health, Education, Warns Against Weak Governance
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ECOWAS Sounds Alarm as 90% of West Africa’s Economy Remains Informal
ECOWAS Sounds Alarm as 90% of West Africa’s Economy Remains Informal
…Parliament pushes sweeping reforms to unlock MSMEs, create jobs, tackle insecurity
By: Michael Mike
The Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) Parliament has raised concern over the dominance of the informal sector in West Africa, warning that nearly 90 per cent of economic activities and at least 60 per cent of the region’s workforce remain outside the formal economy, a situation lawmakers said is undermining economic growth, job creation and regional competitiveness.
The parliament on Monday called for far-reaching policy reforms to formalise and strengthen Micro, Small and Medium Enterprises (MSMEs), describing the sector as central to achieving economic transformation, reducing poverty and addressing insecurity across the sub-region.

The warning came at the opening of a Joint Committee meeting of the ECOWAS Parliament in Cotonou, Republic of Benin, where lawmakers, policy experts, private sector operators and development partners began deliberations on strategies to integrate millions of informal businesses into the formal economy.
Delivering the opening remarks on behalf of the Joint Committee on Industry and Private Sector, Macroeconomic Policy and Economic Research, Administration, Finance and Budget, and Public Accounts, Co-Chairperson, Hon. Alhagie Darbo said the statistics reflected both the entrepreneurial resilience of West Africans and the failure of existing policies to support business growth.
According to him, while MSMEs remain the backbone of local economies by creating jobs, driving innovation, promoting entrepreneurship, empowering women and youths and facilitating cross-border trade, the overwhelming majority continue to operate informally, preventing them from accessing finance, technology, markets, business support services and legal protection.
“It is estimated that the informal sector accounts for nearly 90 per cent of economic activities and employs not less than 60 per cent of our labour force across member states,” Darbo said.
“While this demonstrates the entrepreneurial spirit of our people, it also highlights the urgent need to create enabling policies that encourage formalisation, improve productivity and integrate MSMEs into regional and continental value chains.”
He stressed that formalising small businesses was no longer just an economic objective but a strategic necessity for poverty reduction, sustainable development and regional integration.
Darbo urged ECOWAS member states to dismantle barriers limiting the growth of MSMEs through harmonised policies, improved access to finance, digital transformation, stronger productive capacity and greater participation in regional value chains under both the ECOWAS Trade Liberalisation Scheme (ETLS) and the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA).
He noted that the objectives align with ECOWAS Vision 2050, the regional bloc’s long-term development agenda aimed at building a peaceful, prosperous and fully integrated West Africa driven by inclusive economic growth.
Declaring the meeting open, Speaker of the ECOWAS Parliament, Hon. Hadja Memounatou Ibrahima, represented by Second Deputy Speaker Hon. Adjaratou Coulibaly, linked economic empowerment to the region’s growing security challenges.
She argued that expanding opportunities for women and young people through thriving MSMEs would help reduce unemployment and address some of the underlying drivers of insecurity confronting several ECOWAS member states.
According to her, empowering citizens to participate meaningfully in economic activities is one of the most effective long-term strategies for promoting peace and stability in the region.
The committee is expected to produce recommendations for consideration by ECOWAS institutions and member states, with the aim of creating a more business-friendly environment capable of accelerating industrialisation, boosting intra-African trade and making West African economies more globally competitive.
MSMEs account for more than 90 per cent of businesses in many African countries and are recognised as the largest source of employment outside government. Despite their importance, many operate in the informal economy because of burdensome regulations, multiple taxation, inadequate infrastructure, limited access to affordable finance and weak institutional support.
The challenge has become more pressing as ECOWAS intensifies efforts to deepen regional integration through the ECOWAS Trade Liberalisation Scheme and the African Continental Free Trade Area, both of which require competitive and formalised businesses capable of participating in cross-border commerce.
Economic experts have repeatedly argued that bringing more businesses into the formal sector would expand government revenues, improve access to credit, strengthen productivity and position West Africa to compete more effectively in the global economy.
ECOWAS Sounds Alarm as 90% of West Africa’s Economy Remains Informal
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