After Tillabéri, Is Niamey the Next Target?

After Tillabéri, Is Niamey the Next Target?

By: Zagazola Makama

As the security situation deteriorates in the embattled Tillabéri region of western Niger, fears are mounting that the country’s capital, Niamey, could become the next objective in a carefully coordinated offensive by jihadist groups.

What began as isolated attacks by armed terrorist groups (GATs) has now evolved into a structured campaign of territorial encirclement and economic suffocation. Once a resilient region, Tillabéri is now encircled by extremists who operate with impunity. Key towns such as Wanzarbé, Bankilaré, Kokourou, Ayorou, Makalondi, and Tamou have reportedly fallen under effective blockade, with roads cut off, markets paralyzed, and residents living under de facto insurgent control.

This shift from random insurgency to a strategic offensive raises alarm bells about the potential for a broader assault on Niamey, the political and military nerve center of Niger.

Groups such as the Islamic State in the Greater Sahara (ISGS/EIGS) and the Jama’at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM) have adopted deliberate tactics to isolate strategic zones, weaken state presence, and create power vacuums. Analysts suggest that this methodical advance is setting the stage for a possible assault on Niamey.

“Their objective is no longer just military it’s psychological and political,” says a Sahel-based security expert who spoke to Zagazola Makama on the condition of anonymity. “They want to collapse the state from the outer provinces inward, sowing fear, discrediting the armed forces, and projecting power.”

Amid this deteriorating situation, the Nigerien Army’s response has been notably muted. Despite mounting pressure from local communities, there has been little visible counter-offensive. Observers question why the military appears paralyzed while villages fall, trade routes close, and militants entrench themselves deeper.

The Alliance of Sahel States (AES), comprising Niger, Mali, and Burkina Faso, had previously pledged to deploy a joint 5,000 man force to confront the growing threat. However, weeks later, there is no visible deployment, and coordination appears fractured. Military insiders cite low morale, unclear command structures, and growing disillusionment with military leadership, which is perceived to prioritize political office over battlefield engagement. “The foot soldiers are angry, and many feel betrayed,” says a retired officer based in Niamey.

The humanitarian situation in Tillabéri is dire. With routes severed and aid agencies unable to reach besieged populations, tens of thousands are at risk of famine, displacement, and forced recruitment by insurgents. Local sources report that GATs now enforce their own laws, regulate movements, and impose taxes on farmers and traders. Residents fear that militant authority is becoming normalized in areas where the state is absent.

While no confirmed attacks have occurred within Niamey itself, the encirclement of western regions has significant strategic implications. The capital, though heavily guarded, relies on surrounding areas for food, fuel, and supply chains. Recent incidents, including the invasion, looting, and burning of structures in the suburbs of Makalondi by JNIM fighters on April 7, 2025, illustrate the escalating threat. Following this attack, locals fled the village in fear, attempting to migrate towards Torodi City. However, they faced blockades from security personnel, who cited security reasons for preventing their exit. This has led to frustration among residents, who accuse the government of failing to protect them during the attack.

The humanitarian crisis in Niger is alarming, exacerbated by the government’s inability to develop concrete confidence-building measures to encourage local populations to remain in their communities. The International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) has also withdrawn its support, further complicating the humanitarian landscape.

Projected Outcomes and Regional Implications

As the situation unfolds, the potential for an influx of internally displaced persons (IDPs) into neighboring countries looms large. The continuous pressure from JNIM and ISGS could lead to further territorial gains within the Sahel, prompting increased protests against the government that could escalate into civil unrest or even civil war if not addressed.

Niger should consider providing humanitarian aid to victims, particularly as IDPs or refugee camps emerge across borders with Benin Republic and Nigeria. Collaborative efforts with neighboring countries to develop strategic counter-terrorism operations are essential to address the rising extremist threats. Activation of the ECOWAS Standby Force could enhance regional security measures. Moreover, Niger must intensify border security to manage the influx of refugees and curb the expansion of criminal activities across the northwest, northeast, and southwest regions of the country. Strengthening dialogue with the AES to enhance economic and security measures will be crucial in responding to the evolving threats in the Sahel.

In conclusion, as the situation in Tillabéri deteriorates, the specter of Niamey becoming the next target in this escalating conflict is increasingly plausible. The need for a coordinated and effective response from both national and regional actors has never been more urgent.

Zagazola Makama is a Counter Insurgency Expert and Security Analyst in the Lake Chad Region.

After Tillabéri, Is Niamey the Next Target?