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Al-Shabaab and the Emerging Debate Over a Taliban-Style Political Transition

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Al-Shabaab and the Emerging Debate Over a Taliban-Style Political Transition

By Zagazola Makama

A growing debate within Al-Shabaab’s media ecosystem over the possibility of negotiations with the Federal Government of Somalia may signal an important internal discussion about the future direction of the militant group.

The debate has gained attention following the publication of two articles by a writer using the alias Eng. Kurtun Hassan, whose writings have appeared extensively in Al-Shabaab-affiliated media.

The articles raise questions about whether Al-Shabaab could eventually pursue a path comparable, in some respects, to the political transition undertaken by the Taliban in Afghanistan, including negotiations and eventual engagement with the international community.

The emerging discourse is significant because it goes beyond battlefield developments and touches on the central question of whether Al-Shabaab could evolve from an insurgent organisation into a political and governing authority.

Sources cited in the emerging reporting suggest that elements within Al-Shabaab’s leadership may be considering negotiations with the Federal Government of Somalia, potentially through foreign intermediaries trusted by both sides.

The reported discussions, however, have not been publicly acknowledged by the Somali government or Al-Shabaab leadership as a formal negotiation process.

According to the assessments, the militant group’s leadership may be waiting for what it considers favourable political and security conditions before making any public decision.

Such a development, if eventually confirmed, would represent a major departure from Al-Shabaab’s longstanding strategy of armed insurgency.

For nearly two decades, the group has sought to challenge the Somali state and establish its own interpretation of Islamic governance, while maintaining links to the broader jihadist movement.

Another important aspect of the emerging debate is the reported interest among some Al-Shabaab members in developments in Afghanistan and Syria.

Sources indicate that senior members and sympathisers are closely following questions surrounding governance, military affairs, state administration, security and economic management in those countries.

In some Al-Shabaab-controlled areas, including Jilib, Bu’aale and Kunyoo Barrow, discussions are reportedly becoming more open about whether the organisation could transform itself into a governing authority.

Some members and sympathisers are said to be comparing Al-Shabaab’s existing administrative structures with armed groups that emerged during the Syrian conflict.

The argument reportedly advanced by some of them is that Al-Shabaab already possesses taxation systems, administrative structures and mechanisms for controlling territory that could potentially be adapted into a broader system of governance.

Al-Shabaab remains one of the most powerful jihadist organisations in Africa. Its manpower is difficult to establish with certainty, but available assessments have placed its overall strength at around 20,000 members, including approximately 12,000 armed combatants.

The organisation has also developed significant revenue-generating mechanisms, including taxation, extortion and illicit economic activities.
Estimates of its annual revenue have exceeded $100 million, although such figures are difficult to independently verify.

At the same time, the group has faced growing financial pressure over the past three years as the Somali government, supported by regional and international partners, has intensified efforts to disrupt its financial networks.

The pressure could be contributing to internal discussions about the sustainability of prolonged armed conflict.

If the reported discussions are eventually confirmed by independent sources, they could represent one of the most significant strategic debates within Al-Shabaab since its emergence as Somalia’s dominant jihadist insurgency.

A transition from armed jihad towards negotiations and political participation would fundamentally alter the security landscape in Somalia and potentially across the wider Horn of Africa.

However, the comparison with the Taliban should be treated cautiously. The Taliban’s eventual return to power was shaped by a unique combination of military, political, diplomatic and regional circumstances. Al-Shabaab operates in a different political and security environment, and there is no guarantee that its internal debate will produce a similar outcome.

More importantly, discussions about negotiations do not necessarily mean that the group has abandoned its jihadist ideology.

Militant organisations have historically used political engagement, negotiations and ceasefires for a variety of strategic purposes, including gaining time, reducing military pressure or improving their bargaining position.

Perhaps the most consequential issue is whether Al-Shabaab is genuinely reconsidering the transnational jihadist ideology that has guided its activities for years. Reports suggesting that elements within the organisation are studying governance models in Afghanistan and Syria may indicate an attempt to rethink the group’s long-term political identity.
But this remains an area requiring substantial corroboration.

There is currently insufficient evidence to conclude that Al-Shabaab as an organisation has formally abandoned its jihadist ideology or decided to enter negotiations with Mogadishu.

The writings attributed to Eng. Kurtun Hassan are therefore important less because they constitute an official policy declaration, and more because they provide a window into a debate that may be taking place within the group’s wider media and ideological environment.

The key question now is whether the debate will remain an intellectual discussion among Al-Shabaab’s members and sympathisers or evolve into an actual political strategy endorsed by the group’s senior leadership.

Several indicators will be important to watch: changes in Al-Shabaab’s public messaging, statements from senior commanders, shifts in its relationship with foreign jihadist organisations, changes in its taxation and governance practices, and any indications of contact with Somali authorities or foreign intermediaries.

For now, the evidence points to an emerging debate rather than a confirmed political transition.

Nevertheless, the fact that questions about negotiations, governance and engagement with the international community are reportedly being discussed within Al-Shabaab’s own media environment deserves close attention.

If the debate eventually moves from discussion to policy, it could mark the beginning of a fundamentally different phase in Somalia’s long-running conflict — one in which the battlefield may increasingly give way to negotiations over power, governance and the future of the Somali state.

Al-Shabaab and the Emerging Debate Over a Taliban-Style Political Transition

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2027: TAF-Africa urges INEC, security agencies to ensure inclusive voting

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2027: TAF-Africa urges INEC, security agencies to ensure inclusive voting

By Elizabeth Ogunjobi

TAF-Africa has urged the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) and security agencies to ensure accessible and safe voting for Persons with Disabilities (PwDs) in 2027.

Dr Andrew Adaji, Programme Manager of The All-Rights Foundation, made the call in Gombe on Wednesday during a community outreach for PwDs.

Adaji said the agencies must ensure that all eligible voters exercised their constitutional rights without discrimination or unnecessary difficulties.

He said PwDs deserved adequate support to participate in electoral processes, given their population and potential contributions to national development.

He estimated that PwDs constituted about 35 million Nigerians, representing 18 per cent of the country’s population.

Adaji urged INEC to promote priority voting and ensure its officials understood provisions designed to facilitate voting for PwDs.

He also criticised the commission’s alleged neglect of Form EC40H, which documents the participation of voters with disabilities.

“Based on our experience during the off-cycle governorship elections in Ekiti, Anambra and Osun states, most ad-hoc staff were not even aware that the form existed,” he said.

He said observers had to draw polling officials’ attention to the form during the elections.

Adaji urged INEC to incorporate training on Form EC40H into its preparation of ad-hoc staff.

He said this would enable officials to understand its purpose and properly document PwDs participating in elections.

He also called for assistive devices, including magnifying glasses and Braille ballot guides, for voters with visual impairments.

Adaji urged INEC to make polling units physically accessible, stressing that PwDs should exercise their rights independently and with dignity.

“We should not have to carry them into polling units. Instead, the facilities should be designed to accommodate them,” he said.

He expressed optimism that improved accessibility would encourage more PwDs to participate in elections.

Adaji also urged security agencies to prioritise the protection of PwDs during security threats and emergencies.

He encouraged PwDs in Gombe to exercise their voting rights under the priority voting provisions of the law.

He said the provisions included special queues for PwDs, pregnant women and older persons.

Adaji urged Nigerians to support the participation of PwDs in the electoral process.

Alheri Nuhu, Women Leader of the Deaf Association in Gombe State, commended The All-Rights Foundation for organising the outreach.

Nuhu said PwDs had been denied adequate attention during previous elections, despite their constitutional rights.

She lamented discrimination by INEC officials and other voters, saying communication barriers often left deaf voters disenfranchised.

She urged INEC to engage sign language interpreters among its ad-hoc staff to facilitate communication during elections.

Similarly, Malam Sani Abubakar, Chairman of the Lepers Association in Gombe State, called for inclusive voting arrangements.

He said leprosy had affected some members’ thumbs, making thumbprinting difficult despite their faces being captured during previous elections.

Abubakar urged INEC to introduce alternative voting arrangements for affected voters to prevent their disenfranchisement.

NAN reports that The All-Rights Foundation is conducting the outreach in six Gombe communities, targeting 305 PwDs.

2027: TAF-Africa urges INEC, security agencies to ensure inclusive voting

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Borno 2027: The General’s Charge and How Zulum Unleashes Borno’s Heavyweight Political Squad

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Borno 2027: The General’s Charge and How Zulum Unleashes Borno’s Heavyweight Political Squad

By Abubakar M. Kareto

In Nigerian politics, elections are rarely won on auditorium stages; they are decided in the quiet corridors of rural wards and the long queues of remote polling units.

The formal inauguration of the Borno State All Progressives Congress (APC) Campaign Council at the Government House followed by a massive, open-air campaign flag-off at the Sports Centre in Maiduguri represents a calculated departure from routine rally-making toward micro-targeted grassroots mobilization.

By commanding party stalwarts to abandon executive comfort and embed themselves directly within their local communities, Governor Babagana Umara Zulum is deploying a bottom-up doctrine aimed at locking down political legitimacy where it matters most.

At the heart of this strategy is the critical task of maintaining party cohesion after intense internal primaries. Zulum’s explicit instruction for victorious candidates to reach out and heal rifts with aggrieved aspirants reflects a realistic understanding of political arithmetic: internal resentment erodes turnout faster than any opposition campaign. By coupling reconciliation with firm warnings against subversion, the leadership is attempting to forge an unbreakable front out of potentially volatile factions.

The sheer scale of political unity displayed in Maiduguri underscores the formidable nature of this campaign structure. Bringing together political titans including former Governors Senator Maina Ma’aji Lawan and Senator Ali Modu Sheriff, alongside APC Deputy National Chairman Ali Bukar Dalori and the state’s complete senatorial delegation demonstrates an unprecedented level of internal alignment.

This public display of solidarity among historical heavyweights signals organizational stability, minimizing space for opposition inroads while keeping rank-and-file members firmly aligned.

Beyond local dynamics, Borno State occupies a unique position on the national political chessboard as the home state of Vice President Senator Kashim Shettima. In this high-stakes arena, sheer victory is insufficient; the turnout margin itself serves as a barometer of political influence.

Delivering a massive vote tally is therefore both a local objective and a strategic demonstration of national strength, cementing the state’s leverage within the governing alliance.

To turn political influence into actual votes, the campaign relies heavily on record-based persuasion and visible governance dividends. By grounding the campaign pitch in key developmental gains achieved despite severe security challenges and highlighting major federal institutions acquired in Gwoza, Bama, and Azare canvassers are equipped with a tangible policy narrative. Framing voter turnout for President Bola Ahmed Tinubu, gubernatorial candidate Engr. Mustapha Gubio, and all legislative candidates as a direct return on investment gives party workers a clear, evidence-backed story for every doorstep across the state’s 27 local government areas.

A vital strength of this expanded outreach is the deliberate inclusion of women and youth as core engines of voter mobilization. The strong presence of the women’s delegation led by Borno First Lady Dr. Falmata Babagana Umara Zulum alongside the wife of the Deputy Governor and the wives of party candidates highlights an organized effort to engage families and community networks directly. Demanding structured participation across all demographics ensures that campaign directives actively translate into voter registration and turnout.

Deputy Governor Umar Usman Kadafur’s commitment to an issue-based, unit-by-unit campaign outlines the operational mechanics needed to execute this vision. Requiring regular field reports creates a system of measurable accountability across every precinct. In a vast state with complex logistics, such systematic tracking ensures that high-level strategy is actively carried out at every single polling station.

Lastly, the Maiduguri launch demonstrates how strategic discipline, elite reconciliation, and precinct-level focus converge to shape electoral outcomes. In an increasingly competitive political landscape, the Borno APC has laid out a clear blueprint: harness the full weight of a unified leadership squad, but win the election one polling unit at a time.

About the Author
Abubakar M. Kareto is a Public Affairs Analyst and Communications Strategist focusing on governance, policies, economy, and institutional reforms across Nigeria and Africa. He can be reached on X @amkareto and via email at amkareto@gmail.com.

Borno 2027: The General’s Charge and How Zulum Unleashes Borno’s Heavyweight Political Squad

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Two Notorious Terrorist Leaders Haruna Balatoni and Black Neutralised in Plateau Military Offensive Another Fatally Wounded as Six AK-47 Rifles Returned

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Two Notorious Terrorist Leaders Haruna Balatoni and Black Neutralised in Plateau Military Offensive Another Fatally Wounded as Six AK-47 Rifles Returned

By: Zagazola Makama

Troops of the Nigerian Army have recorded major breakthroughs in ongoing offensive operations against armed criminal networks in Plateau State, neutralising two notorious terrorist leaders, critically wounding another and recovering six AK-47 rifles previously seized from security forces.

The latest developments followed sustained military offensives at Dajin Madam in Wase Local Government Area of Plateau State on November 8, 2026.

Security sources disclosed that HUMINT reports received at about 8:53 a.m. on November 9 indicated that the intensity of the military operation had resulted in the neutralisation of two suspected terrorist leaders identified as Haruna Balatoni and Black.

Another notorious figure, identified as Dogo Mai Kunkuru, was reportedly shot in the chest and left in a critical condition, with sources indicating that his chances of survival were slim.

In a significant development on November 10, the sustained military pressure reportedly compelled the terrorist network, through an intermediary identified as Ali-Kwara, to return six AK-47 rifles previously seized from security forces.

The recovered weapons are currently in military custody.
In a related operation, troops of 173 Battalion deployed at Mansur rescued a kidnapped mother and her daughter and recovered 39 cattle.

The developments represent a significant disruption of the criminal network’s leadership, weapons stockpile and capacity to sustain operations in the Wase axis.
The recovery of the six rifles is particularly important as it restores weapons previously lost to the criminal network and provides an opportunity for further intelligence exploitation.

The latest successes underscore the impact of sustained offensive pressure, intelligence-driven operations and military presence in dismantling armed groups operating across Plateau State.

The reported deaths of the terrorist leaders and the condition of Dogo Mai Kunkuru are based on preliminary HUMINT assessments and remain subject to independent military confirmation

Two Notorious Terrorist Leaders Haruna Balatoni and Black Neutralised in Plateau Military Offensive Another Fatally Wounded as Six AK-47 Rifles Returned

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