Tuareg Rebels and JNIM: A New Strategic Alliance in Mali?

By: Zagazola Makama

Mali stands at a critical turning point as fresh negotiations between the Tuareg rebels of northern Mali and the al-Qaeda-affiliated Jama’at Nasr al-Islam wal Muslimin (JNIM) gain momentum. According to sources close to both groups, these talks represent a significant shift in strategy that could fundamentally reshape the security and political landscape of the Sahel.

For the Tuareg rebels, these negotiations are a response to Mali’s recent national consultations, which called for dialogue with jihadist groups but excluded northern armed factions from the process. Additionally, Tuareg leaders argue that grassroots communities who have been caught in the crossfire of the ongoing conflict are pushing for a settlement to avoid further bloodshed.

On the other hand, the rebels say they are keen to avoid the mistakes of 2012, when the Tuareg-led National Movement for the Liberation of Azawad (MNLA) initially seized control of northern Mali, only to be overpowered by jihadist forces, leading to a rapid escalation of violence and the subsequent 2013 French military intervention.

A Shift in JNIM’s Strategy

A key factor encouraging the Tuareg rebels to engage in talks is the shifting approach of JNIM itself. Over the years, the group has evolved in its tactics, messaging, and governance strategy. Unlike the extremist brutality displayed in 2012, JNIM has refined its policies, making it a more pragmatic and structured insurgency.

According to sources close to the Tuareg rebels, JNIM’s leadership began reassessing its position following the U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan. The Taliban’s ability to consolidate power while maintaining Afghanistan’s territorial integrity served as a model. Additionally, recent jihadist dynamics in Syria further influenced JNIM’s approach, leading to a reconsideration of its long-term objectives in Mali.

Statements from key JNIM figures, including Amadou Koufa, leader of Katiba Macina, and Jafar Dicko, head of JNIM operations in Burkina Faso, indicate a growing willingness to compromise. Their recent declarations have emphasized political and governance issues rather than outright military conquest.

Most notably, a recent JNIM communiqué framed the military juntas in the region as obstacles to regional stability. The statement called for international intervention against these governments, signaling that JNIM sees an opportunity to reposition itself as a legitimate actor rather than a purely insurgent force.

This convergence of interests between Tuareg rebels and JNIM has laid the groundwork for negotiations, with both sides willing to soften their positions for mutual benefit.

Key Points of Negotiation

JNIM sources have confirmed that discussions are ongoing, with a primary focus on governance and the role of Sharia law. Historically, one of the main points of contention between the two factions has been JNIM’s strict interpretation of Islamic law, which led to the breakdown of their alliance in 2012.

However, the current negotiations propose a new governance model in which Sharia law would be implemented at the local level, but administered by community-based religious authorities rather than JNIM operatives. This compromise, according to sources, has been accepted by JNIM’s leadership.

Another major shift is JNIM’s perspective on Mali’s territorial integrity. Rather than supporting the Tuareg rebels’ long-standing push for an independent Azawad, JNIM has reportedly argued that regional and international actors would be more likely to tolerate an Islamic governance structure within a unified Mali rather than outright secession.

JNIM’s ability to convince Tuareg leaders to focus on governing northern Mali rather than seeking full independence represents a major ideological shift. The jihadist group is prepared to support Tuareg fighters in taking control of key territories, but with the understanding that these areas would be governed under an Islamic framework rather than an independent Tuareg state.

A New Governance Model for Northern Mali?

Sources close to JNIM say that if the alliance moves forward, the group is ready to coordinate and administer territories alongside Tuareg rebels. However, lessons from the 2012 conflict have prompted a change in strategy.

Rather than raising the black flag of al-Qaeda over captured cities a move that led to international military intervention in the past—JNIM plans to allow Tuareg governance structures to manage administrative affairs. This means that while JNIM would retain influence, it would avoid direct control over urban areas, instead allowing local Tuareg leadership to take the forefront.

Such a strategy could serve multiple purposes: Reducing the risk of foreign military intervention by keeping governance in the hands of local Tuareg leaders, JNIM would present a less overt threat to international powers. Legitimizing its role in Mali’s political landscape rather than being seen purely as an extremist group, JNIM could position itself as a political and security partner in the region. Avoiding the mistakes of 2012 The rapid downfall of the Tuareg rebellion in 2012 was largely due to its inability to maintain control. By working together with the rebels rather than sidelining them, JNIM aims to ensure a more sustainable presence.

The Question of Al-Qaeda Affiliation

One of the most sensitive aspects of the negotiations revolves around JNIM’s relationship with al-Qaeda’s central command. According to sources, there is ongoing internal debate about whether the group should formally distance itself from al-Qaeda.

For JNIM leaders, the question is not just ideological but also strategic. Some within the group believe that dissociating from al-Qaeda could open doors to direct negotiations with Western governments. Others argue that such a move would require religious justification, possibly linked to a major political development such as the formal independence of Azawad or the collapse of the Malian government in Bamako.

Interestingly, sources indicate that JNIM is more willing to negotiate its future with Western powers directly rather than through Tuareg intermediaries. The concern within JNIM is that Tuareg leaders could use any potential al-Qaeda split as leverage in their own diplomatic engagements with France and other international actors.

Conclusion: A Game-Changer for Mali?

If these negotiations result in a formal agreement, the implications for Mali and the wider Sahel could be profound. A coordinated Tuareg-JNIM alliance would not only reshape local power dynamics but could also alter the trajectory of jihadist movements across West Africa.

The shift in JNIM’s strategy from ideological extremism to pragmatic governance signals a broader recalibration of jihadist operations in the region. Whether this shift leads to long-term stability or another round of conflict remains to be seen.

What is clear, however, is that Mali’s security landscape is on the brink of another transformation one that could redefine the balance of power in the Sahel for years to come.

Zagazola Makama is a Counter Insurgency Expert and Security Analyst in the Lake Chad Region

Tuareg Rebels and JNIM: A New Strategic Alliance in Mali?

Troops of Operation Safe Haven Rescue Kidnapped Lecturer in Plateau

By Zagazola Makama

Troops of Operation Safe Haven (OPSH) have rescued Dr. Yohanna Mallo, a lecturer at the Federal College of Education, Pankshin, who was abducted by gunmen on March 1.

Intelligence sources told Zagazola Makama on Tuesday that the rescue operation was conducted by troops of OPSH in collaboration with other security agencies.

“The victim, Dr. Yohanna Mallo, has been successfully rescued, debriefed, and reunited with his family,” the source said.

The source added that troops were conducting follow-up operations to track down the fleeing suspects involved in the abduction.

Meanwhile, residents have been urged to remain vigilant and report any suspicious activities to security agencies to aid ongoing investigations.

Operation Safe Haven, a multi-security task force responsible for maintaining peace in Plateau and parts of Bauchi and Kaduna states, reaffirmed its commitment to tackling security threats and ensuring the safety of citizens.

Troops of Operation Safe Haven Rescue Kidnapped Lecturer in Plateau

Zulum approves appointment of executive chairman, members of State Hajj Commission

By: Our Reporter

Borno State Governor, Professor Babagana Umara Zulum, has approved the appointment of key officials for the newly established Borno State Hajj Commission.

In a statement by his spokesperson, Dauda Iliya, the governor stated that Alhaji Mohammed Dawule Mainok has been appointed as the Executive Chairman, with Honourable Haruna Kukawa serving as the Vice Chairman of the Commission.

Prior to their appointments, Alhaji Dawule Mainok served as the former acting Executive Secretary of the defunct Borno State Pilgrims Welfare Board, while Honourable Kukawa was a former member of Borno State House of Assembly, representing Kukawa.

In addition, the governor also appointed Honourable Abatcha Umar and Alhaji Haruna Mari as full-time members, with Mohammed Ali Ahmed appointed as secretary.

The appointments of the Executive Chairman and the three full-time members are in accordance with Section 4(a), (b), (c), and Section 5 of Borno State Hajj Commission Law 2024, and are subject to confirmation by the State Assembly.

Governor Zulum also approved the appointment of six part-time members to the Commission, namely: Sheikh Abubakar Kyari, Khallifa Abba Allamin Banki, Barrister Ahmed Abdulkadir, Sheikh Gambo Kyari, Hajja Safiya Lawan Ibrahim, and Alhaji Yusuf Ali.

The chairman and members of the commission will serve for an initial term of four years, with the possibility of reappointment for a further four-year term.

The statement further noted that the commission will operate under the office of the Deputy Governor to ensure effective monitoring and supervision.

Zulum approves appointment of executive chairman, members of State Hajj Commission