Climate Crisis: ECOWAS Parliamentarians Warn of ‘Security Time Bomb’ as Land, Water Shrink

By: Michael Mike

West Africa is facing a widening climate-driven crisis in which shrinking water resources, degraded farmland and changing weather patterns are increasingly fuelling competition for land, aggravating farmer-herder conflicts, displacing communities and deepening poverty, parliamentarians from the region have warned.

The warning came as lawmakers at the Second 2026 Parliamentary Seminar of the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) in Accra, Ghana, examined the increasingly dangerous intersection between climate change, environmental degradation, livelihoods, migration and regional security.

The discussions marked a significant shift from treating climate change principally as an environmental problem to recognising it as an emerging governance, humanitarian and security challenge requiring coordinated legislative and regional intervention.

For Nigeria, the implications are particularly severe.

The country’s presentation to the seminar revealed how environmental pressures are intersecting with population growth, agricultural expansion, climate variability, land degradation and changing migration patterns to intensify competition between farming and pastoral communities.

The report warned that disputes over crop destruction, land and water, encroachment on livestock routes, cattle theft and changing patterns of seasonal migration have contributed to persistent farmer-herder tensions across the country.

But it cautioned that the conflicts cannot be reduced to a simple confrontation between farmers and herders.

Communal tensions, banditry, organised crime, climate pressures and weaknesses in conflict-resolution mechanisms are also contributing to the crisis.

The consequences are already being reflected in Nigeria’s displacement figures.

“In Nigeria, internal displacement has been linked to armed conflict, communal violence, farmer-herder conflict, banditry, terrorism, flooding and other disasters,” Nigeria’s presentation stated.

Citing 2025 assessments by the International Organization for Migration, the presentation said more than 2.2 million people were internally displaced in the North-East, while over 1.3 million were displaced across the North-Central and North-West regions.

The figures underline the scale of a crisis that has moved beyond humanitarian relief into the areas of governance, development, food security, environmental management and national security.

Land and water becoming security issues

At the centre of the crisis is a resource equation that is becoming increasingly difficult to manage: less predictable rainfall, declining water availability, pressure on productive land and growing populations competing for the same resources.

For farming and pastoral communities, the presentation noted, land and water are not merely economic assets.

They are essential to survival.

As traditional grazing routes become blocked, agricultural land expands and water sources diminish, pastoralists are forced to alter movement patterns while farmers face increasing pressure to protect cultivated land.

Without effective mechanisms for dialogue, mediation and resource management, such environmental pressures can escalate into violent disputes.

This was reflected in Togo’s presentation, which detailed the country’s attempt to regulate transhumance and reduce conflicts linked to livestock movement.

Togo established its National Transhumance Committee in 1995 to monitor livestock movement, routes, animal health and disputes.

However, changing environmental and security conditions have prompted the country to introduce a new 2026–2030 plan addressing farmer-herder conflict, pressure on land, climate change, security challenges, inadequate monitoring and weak enforcement.

The experience demonstrates that traditional systems for managing pastoral movement are increasingly being tested by environmental and demographic changes.

From climate shock to displacement

The seminar also highlighted how environmental stress can create a chain reaction extending from food production to displacement.

Cabo Verde’s presentation focused on water scarcity, warning in effect that the consequences of climate change are interconnected: reduced water availability affects agriculture, pressure on agriculture affects livelihoods, while deteriorating livelihoods can influence migration.

When displaced or migrating populations encounter communities already competing over scarce land and water, tensions can intensify.

For Nigeria, therefore, the challenge is not simply preventing people from being displaced but creating conditions that allow those already displaced to rebuild their lives.

The country’s presentation identified safe and voluntary return, local integration or relocation, access to land and housing, restoration of property rights, livelihoods, education, healthcare, documentation and participation in community life as essential elements of durable solutions.

This means that displacement policy cannot stop at providing food, temporary shelter and emergency assistance.

Why parliament matters

The discussions placed a new responsibility on lawmakers, who were urged to address the crisis before environmental pressures become humanitarian emergencies and security crises.

Nigeria advocated evidence-based parliamentary oversight, stronger legislative frameworks and platforms for dialogue involving displaced persons, farmers, pastoralists, women, young people and host communities.

The Gambia similarly called for climate resilience and food security to receive greater attention in legislative agendas, budgets and oversight.

The lawmakers were effectively challenged to move from reactive legislation—responding after communities have been displaced or conflicts have erupted—to preventive governance capable of reducing the conditions that produce conflict.

That includes legislation and budgets supporting early-warning systems, conflict prevention, mediation, climate adaptation, land and resource governance, livestock infrastructure and sustainable rural livelihoods.

Nigeria’s presentation further stressed that military and other security operations alone cannot resolve the underlying causes of the crisis.

Communities, it argued, also need effective institutions, dialogue mechanisms and economic opportunities.

A regional crisis requiring a regional response

The seminar’s presentations converged on another reality: climate-induced instability does not respect national borders.

Pastoralists cross borders in search of grazing and water, while displaced populations can move from one country or community to another. Environmental changes and extreme weather events likewise affect several countries simultaneously.

The Gambia’s Participatory Integrated Platform for Resilience and Food Security Phase II offers one example of a response centred on strengthening communities before crises occur.

The programme targets small-scale producers, herders and agro-pastoralists across 19 districts, with interventions covering climate-smart agriculture, irrigation, livestock support, agricultural inputs, post-harvest equipment and assistance for women and young people.

It has also incorporated sensitisation around farmer-herder conflicts, cattle tracks and grazing areas.

The approach reflects the broader lesson from the ECOWAS seminar: climate resilience must encompass food production, livelihoods, poverty reduction, natural-resource management and social stability.

Women and young people were also identified as important actors in building resilience.

Beyond emergency response

The Accra deliberations ultimately exposed a widening policy gap: West Africa can no longer afford to treat climate-induced displacement and resource conflicts solely as emergencies after they occur.

The region faces the more difficult task of preventing environmental pressures from becoming security crises in the first place.

That will require stronger early-warning systems, functional dispute-resolution mechanisms, responsible management of land and water, protection of livestock routes, climate-adapted agriculture and investment in communities most vulnerable to environmental shocks.

It will also require parliamentarians to align laws, budgets and oversight with the realities emerging on the ground.

The message from the seminar was clear: where water disappears, livelihoods come under pressure; where livelihoods collapse, migration increases; where migrants and host communities compete for scarce resources, conflict risks rise.

For ECOWAS, the challenge is to break that chain before climate change turns more communities into victims of displacement, poverty and insecurity

Climate Crisis: ECOWAS Parliamentarians Warn of ‘Security Time Bomb’ as Land, Water Shrink