COP29 SURPRISED NO ONE
Text of CSOs Media Briefing held in Abuja on 4th December 2024 on the outcome of COP29 and the way forward

By: Michael Mike

The Conference of Parties (COP) of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) held its 29th session at Baku Azerbaijan on10-24 November 2024. COP29 as it is popularly known was tagged a Finance COP and that raised the hopes of poor, vulnerable nations that finally, climate finance would make sense. They were rightly enthused by the fact that the Loss and Damage mechanism agreed to at COP27 in Egypt was endorsed at COP28 in the United Arab Emirates (UAE). However, optimists forgot that tagging COP27 an African COP did not make it an African COP. That conference was actually the fifth COP held in Africa.

COP29 failed spectacularly on the finance note and the leader of the Nigerian delegation rightly called the minuscule amount offered an insult. We applaud the Director General of the Nigerian Climate Change Commission (NCCC) for her forthright submission.

AMBITIONS GAP

Scientists inform us that 2024 is the hottest year on record. The year has also recorded a high number of disastrous weather events. The fact that climate action requires scientifically derived, binding and distributed emissions reduction cannot be denied otherwise the trend will persist. The UNFCCC core justice basis is the Common But Differentiated Responsibilities (CBDR). This principle requires that the rich and highly polluting nations who contributed disproportionately to the stock of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere must own up to their historical responsibility, cut emissions at source and provide finance to help the vulnerable nations that have not contributed to the problem at any significant level.

This principle was essentially turned on its head when the Copenhagen Accord outcome of COP15 held in December 2009 signaled the ascendancy of voluntary emissions reduction by every nation — polluters and non-polluters. That outcome gave rise to the so-called Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) plank of the Paris Agreement. Nations need to show high levels of ambition in terms of emissions reduction if the world is to experience temperature levels within the limits set by the Paris Agreement. This has not happened.

EMISSIONS GAP

Emissions Gap reports issued by the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) in 2023 and in 2024 clearly show that if nations carry out their NDCs, the world would experience temperature increases far above the 1.5C and 2.0C targets set by the Paris Agreement.

The latest Emissions Gap report shows that if countries continue with their current policies, the world stands a 90 per cent chance of hitting a temperature increase far above 3.6C or 3.4C if they carry on with unconditional NDCs and 3.0C with conditional reductions.

Nations carry on as if we are not living in an emergency even though the Emissions Gap report came out just before COP29. When we consider the impacts of weather events being currently experienced at 1.1C above preindustrial levels, it is not difficult to see that the world is already in injury time.

FINANCE GAP

The so-called finance COP was shy of mentioning how much the rich polluting nations would contribute to help vulnerable nations adapt and build resilience to the scourge. The figures were literally kept to the dying hours of the conference and was eventually rushed through to the disappointment of many.

Talks of loss and damage and other instruments of climate finance became largely muted. In their place emerged a contentious concept of New Collective Quantified Goals (NCQG) – a new mechanism requiring that everyone contributes to the finance pot in the same thought pattern that birthed the Nationally Determined Contributions (NDC), the hallmark of voluntary emissions reduction according to convenience.

We recall that at COP15 in 2009 the pledge was to pay $10bn dollars yearly from 2010 to 2020 and raise that to $100bn from 2020. Those targets never materialized. The New Collective Quantified Goal (NCQG) was presented as a means of raising funds needed to support mitigation, adaptation, and loss and damage in developing and climate-vulnerable countries, found mostly in the Global South. The amount needed was put at a minimum of $1.3 trillion annually, although civil society analysts put the climate debt at $5-8 trillion annually.

COP 29 came up with a miserly $300 billion which would come into effect in 2035. The COP clearly ignored the call of vulnerable nations and global civil society and Indigenous peoples for rich and historically responsible nations to Pay Up and to do so in Trillions not Billions.

When the COP deferred the date for providing needed funds to 2035 there doesn’t appear to be any consideration of the scale of the climate disasters that the world may be facing then. It has also been estimated that the $300 billion would be worth just $175 billion by then using current inflationary trend.

Another concern is that even the promised $300 billion may come through so-called innovative financial sources that include loans and would increase the already huge debt burdens of the poor countries.

Climate finance can readily be raised by redirecting funds from military expenditure that saw rich nations spend up to $2.4 trillion in 2023. Halting fossil fuel subsidies and holding polluters accountable would raise more than $5 trillion annually. So, the problem is not a lack of cash, but a matter of priority.

FALSE SOLUTIONS

COP29 opened with the COP president gaveling through mechanisms to operationalize carbon markets and other market-based mechanisms under Article 6.4 of the Paris Agreement. Parties formally adopted a decision text for Article 6, that formally set the stage for a global expansion of carbon markets, entrenching false solutions and deepening climate injustice.
Carbon markets provide a lifeline for polluters and fossil fuel companies who could now buy the license to continue polluting. It was a triumphant season for the over 1770 contingent of fossil fuel lobbyists, who ensured that attention drifted from ending the primary cause of climate change and elevated false solutions instead. This fossil delegation was larger than the combined delegations of the 10 most climate-vulnerable nations.

We are concerned that the new opening to carbon markets and mechanisms will divert funds to false solutions such as carbon capture and storage, geoengineering, carbon offsets, carbon credits, biodiversity credits, and other market-based schemes that perpetuate climate chaos, and violate the rights of Indigenous peoples.

CARBON COLONIALISM

Already the African continent is exposed to not just mere land grabs but a continent grab. Some countries have mortgaged their forests to carbon speculators with some ceding up to 10 and 20 percent of their total land mass. In Nigeria there is a rise of speculators grabbing hundreds of thousands of mangrove forests to enable the so-called investors trade in blue and other colors of carbon. States being enticed to fall into this web include Delta, Rivers, Akwa Ibom, Cross River and Niger. A particularly worrisome note is the plan of Niger State to give 16% of its land mass to a Brazillian meat packaging company which will inevitably have dire socioeconomic-economic as well as climate consequences.

WAY FORWARD

1. We call for community-led solutions to halt pollution at the source, ensure sovereignty of our peoples over their forests, water bodies and general territories.
2. We demand the recognition by rich, polluting and industrialized nations, of a climate and ecological debt they owe and payment of same. This debt is estimated at an annual rate of $5-8 trillion and its payment will end the squabbles over climate finances whose targets are set but are never pursued or met.
3. We call for an end to false solutions and demand the halting of emissions at source by urgently phasing out fossil fuels. Communities and nations that have kept fossil fuels in the ground should be recognized as climate champions and duly compensated for such actions. The people of Yasuni in Ecuador, Ogoni in Nigeria, Lofoten in Norway and others have shown the way.
4. We demand an urgent clean up of areas polluted by fossil fuel exploitation and provision of clean renewable energy to energy poor communities.
5. Nigeria and other African countries should place a ban on geoengineering experimentations, including solar radiation management, ocean fertilization, rock weathering and others.
6. We denounce false solutions and market-based mechanisms that include carbon offset schemes, carbon removals and others.
7. The energy and other transitions must promote human rights and be inclusive of gender responsive efforts with communities duly integrated in the decision making processes.
8. Countries who do not support fossil fuels phase out should be barred from hosting the COP, and polluters should not be kept out of the COP.
9. Real street marches and protests should not be hindered on the Global Days of Action during the COP as has been the case at recent conferences.
10. COP30 should be a truly peoples’ COP where voices of youths, women, indigenous and impacted communities take centre stage.
11. Loss and Damage should be fully addressed under the concept of Climate Debt.
12. Massive Investment in Just Transition through a non-extractive model, prioritizing community-driven solutions such as agroecology that address the intersecting crises of climate and social inequity.
13. We call for the recognition of the Rights of Nature in the negotiations, rejection of the commodification of nature and protection of our forests and biodiversity.
14. We call for investment in peace building, not war and genocide.