Politics
El-Rufai: A calculated yet potentially ineffectual strategy to challenge Tinubu and Shettima’s re-election bid in 2027.
El-Rufai: A calculated yet potentially ineffectual strategy to challenge Tinubu and Shettima’s re-election bid in 2027.
By: Dr. James Bwala
The recent political maneuver by former governor of Kaduna State, Malam Nasir El-Rufai, left many political observers laughing. El-Rufai remains a new clown in the political arena since his rejection as a minister from Kaduna State under the Tinubu administration. El-Rufai’s defection to the Social Democratic Party (SDP) represents a calculated yet potentially ineffectual strategy to challenge President Bola Tinubu and Vice President Kashim Shettima’s 2027 reelection bid. El-Rufai’s move, characterized by claims of ideological divergence from the APC, appears more rooted in personal political ambitions than substantive systemic transformation, which he continually hopes Nigerians believe.
Critical analysis suggests that El-Rufai’s defection is symptomatic of intra-elite power reconfiguration rather than a genuine oppositional movement. The strategic repositioning reflects deeper fractures within Nigeria’s political landscape, where elite negotiations supersede meaningful democratic representation. While El-Rufai attempts to mobilize opposition figures like Peter Obi and Atiku Abubakar, the fundamental power structures remain remarkably unchanged.
Ultimately, the proposed alliance faces significant challenges. The fragmentation of opposition forces, combined with the APC’s entrenched political machinery, renders El-Rufai’s efforts potentially futile. His defection might be interpreted as a symbolic gesture rather than a substantive challenge to the incumbent administration, highlighting the persistent limitations of Nigeria’s contemporary political dynamics. He has been seen moving from one big political figure to another, including going to the home of the former president in an attempt to give credence to his moves, yet he could not clean up the traces of his aging and diminishing relevance in the circle of politics. Despite El-Rufai’s efforts, the entrenched political dynamics and the lack of a cohesive ideological framework within the opposition diminish the likelihood of any substantial electoral upset in 2027.
The lack of a unified vision and coherent policy proposals among these opposition figures only exacerbates their inability to present a credible alternative to the electorate. Given the historical context of electoral politics in Nigeria, the absence of a cohesive opposition strategy further compounds the challenge of altering the status quo, rendering El-Rufai’s defection more an act of political theater than a catalyst for genuine change. Moreover, the entrenched interests and loyalties within the APC continue to present formidable barriers to any meaningful opposition realignment.
The political landscape appears to be more about individual ambitions and less about a unified front capable of mounting a serious challenge to the incumbent powers. This scenario underscores the cyclical nature of political realignments in Nigeria, where shifts often reflect personal ambitions rather than a genuine ideological departure from established norms. While El-Rufai’s attempts to forge alliances with other opposition figures such as Peter Obi, Atiku Abubakar, and Rabiu Kwankwaso signal a desire to create a formidable coalition, the reality remains that such alliances often crumble under the weight of competing interests and personal ambitions, leaving the electorate disillusioned with yet another cycle of political theatrics. Moreover, the historical pattern of political defections in Nigeria suggests that such moves are often perceived as mere strategic repositioning rather than genuine ideological shifts.
Despite the theatrical nature of these political maneuvers, the entrenched power dynamics and loyalty networks within Nigeria’s political landscape make it exceedingly difficult for any new coalition, no matter how strategically crafted, to truly upend the status quo. While El-Rufai’s intentions may appear bold, they are unlikely to disrupt the deeply entrenched political machinery that has long favored incumbents like Tinubu and Shettima.
Despite these efforts, the pervasive influence of existing political structures suggests that any such coalition is more likely to fracture under pressure rather than mount a successful challenge. Given the entrenched interests and historical voting patterns, it appears unlikely that such a coalition could effectively disrupt the established political dominance of Tinubu and Shettima in the upcoming election. This skepticism is further compounded by the perception that El-Rufai’s defection and subsequent coalition-building efforts are more about personal political survival than a genuine commitment to transformative change. Despite the apparent allure of a united front, the reality remains that these alliances often falter under the weight of conflicting agendas and entrenched political loyalties. Moreover, the historical precedent of political realignments in Nigeria often results in temporary alliances that lack the cohesion necessary to present a formidable challenge to established power structures.
READ ALSO: https://newsng.ng/tinubushettima-the-epidemic-of-economic-insecurity-in-nigeria/
The skepticism surrounding El-Rufai’s defection is echoed by the Nigerian Presidency and APC, who dismiss his move as a futile endeavor motivated by personal ambition rather than a genuine ideological shift. Indeed, El-Rufai’s maneuver is less about ideological realignment and more a reconfiguration of elite power dynamics within the ruling class. As observed by many political analysts, the political landscape remains largely unchanged, with the same elite power dynamics at play, suggesting that any perceived threat from El-Rufai’s move is unlikely to materialize into a significant challenge.
This skepticism is further reinforced by the broader historical context of Nigerian politics, where similar attempts to consolidate opposition forces have often unraveled due to internal dissent and the prioritization of individual ambitions over collective goals. Additionally, the inherent volatility of such coalitions, often marred by a lack of unified vision and the dominance of competing interests, further diminishes their potential to unseat entrenched incumbents. Historical patterns also suggest that such coalitions often struggle to sustain momentum and coherence, especially when faced with the entrenched influence of incumbents like Tinubu and Vice President Kashim Shettima.
Given this context, El-Rufai’s efforts to rally opposition figures like Peter Obi and others around the SDP banner might appear ambitious, but without a cohesive strategy or compelling ideological narrative, such alliances are prone to fragmentation and ultimately ineffectual in altering the prevailing status quo.
The entrenched political machinery supporting President Tinubu and Vice President Kashim Shettima possesses significant resources and influence, making it a formidable barrier for any nascent coalition lacking internal solidarity and a resonant national platform. Despite these strategic maneuvers, the historical precedent and current political landscape suggest that El-Rufai’s efforts may ultimately falter against the deeply entrenched systems supporting Tinubu and Shettima.
The historical resilience of incumbent structures in Nigerian politics, characterized by their adept patronage networks and control over vital state apparatuses, presents another significant challenge for any opposition coalition seeking to disrupt the status quo. Without a clear ideological foundation and a unified agenda that resonates with the broader electorate, such attempts are often perceived as mere political repositioning rather than genuine efforts to instigate meaningful change. In 2027, President Tinubu and Vice President Kashim Shettima will take the oath again for the second time, and El-Rufai will still have no political credibility to make a difference in Nigeria’s political circle.
* James Bwala, PhD, writes from Abuja.
El-Rufai: A calculated yet potentially ineffectual strategy to challenge Tinubu and Shettima’s re-election bid in 2027.
Politics
2027: Recalibration in Adamawa as Political Gladiators Return to the Drawing Board Over Dr. Namdas’s announcements to join the guber race
2027: Recalibration in Adamawa as Political Gladiators Return to the Drawing Board Over Dr. Namdas’s announcements to join the guber race
By: Dr. James Bwala
In the dynamic world of politics, every declaration can spark a cascading effect, reshaping alliances, re-evaluating strategies, and igniting aspirations. This is particularly true in Adamawa State, where the political landscape is undergoing significant recalibration following Dr. AbdulRazak Namdas’s announcement of his intention to run for the governorship in the upcoming 2027 elections. As a seasoned politician, journalist, and public servant, Dr. Namdas has already begun to influence the strategies of fellow political gladiators, causing them to reevaluate their positions and possibly reconsider their ambitions.
Dr. AbdulRazak Namdas is not a newcomer to the political scene; he has embarked on a promising career that has seen him serve as the Northeast representative at the Niger Delta Development Commission (NDDC), develop a deep understanding of governance, and represent the interests of his constituents with gravitas during his tenure as a member of the House of Representatives. His previous experience as a spokesperson to former Governor Boni Haruna equips him with unique insights into the workings of Adamawa’s political machinery, making him a formidable candidate in the eyes of many.
READ ALSO: https://newsng.ng/lent-and-ramadan-tribute-to-the-jagaban-of-burgu-and-the-jagoran-arewa/
With the backdrop of the Ramadan season, Dr. Namdas’s declaration took place during an iftar gathering—a moment steeped in personal reflection and collective community engagement. This timing was strategic, as it not only allowed him to present his vision for Adamawa amidst a gathering of supporters but also symbolized unity and purpose. However, the implications of his announcement go far beyond mere rhetoric; they resonate through the entire political spectrum of the state, sending shockwaves across various parties and stakeholders.
The immediate reaction among political pundits and analysts has been one of heightened awareness. The development has prompted a sense of urgency among other political figures who had previously thrown their hats into the ring. The prospect of competing against a candidate of Dr. Namdas’s caliber can dissuade even the most determined aspirants, reshaping the trajectory of the gubernatorial race. This recalibration underscores the principle of political gravity—where credible candidates attract attention and resources while simultaneously prompting others to reconsider their strategies or withdraw altogether from the race.
READ ALSO: https://newsng.ng/lent-and-ramadan-tribute-to-the-jagaban-of-burgu-and-the-jagoran-arewa/
Dr. Namdas’s existing clout within both state and federal political spheres cannot be understated. His connections with influential politicians and party leaders create a robust support network that enhances his candidacy. This backing places him at an advantage, as other prospective candidates may struggle to match the level of support and recognition he commands. In addition, Namdas’s track record of dedicated public service lends him credibility, which is crucial in a politically diverse environment like Adamawa State. His ability to unite factions within the party and appeal to a broad audience makes him a candidate that not only bolsters his party’s—the All Progressive Congress, APC’s—chances but also elevates the political discourse in the state.
As Dr. Namdas steps into the arena, he brings with him an agenda that resonates with the pressing needs of Adamawa’s citizens. From addressing the issues of poverty and unemployment to enhancing infrastructure and education, his platform is expected to reflect both innovative solutions and a commitment to grassroots participation. Voters are increasingly seeking candidates capable of offering practical policies over mere promises, and Dr. Namdas appears poised to meet these demands head-on.
READ ALSO: https://newsng.ng/lent-and-ramadan-tribute-to-the-jagaban-of-burgu-and-the-jagoran-arewa/
The backlash to Dr. Namdas’s announcement has not been uniformly negative toward his competitors; rather, it prompts a recalibration of their own strategies. Candidates who were once confident now find themselves entangled in a competitive landscape marked by uncertainty. Former contenders must either elevate their platforms, broaden their appeal, or risk becoming footnotes in what could become a historic run for governorship. This phenomenon is essential in fostering an energizing political environment, as it can encourage a deeper engagement with constituents—a crucial factor as the campaign progresses.
It is also pertinent to acknowledge the role of social media in amplifying Dr. Namdas’s impact. In today’s political climate, digital platforms serve as battlegrounds for narratives and public opinion. His adept use of these tools allows him to effectively communicate his message, engage with voters in real time, and mobilize grassroots support. Indeed, by harnessing social media, he can galvanize a young electorate hungry for change, aligning their aspirations with his vision for the state.
READ ALSO: https://newsng.ng/lent-and-ramadan-tribute-to-the-jagaban-of-burgu-and-the-jagoran-arewa/
While the current political landscape in Adamawa has been shaken, the art of recalibration extends beyond the immediate response to Dr. Namdas’s announcement. Political entities are forced to analyze their long-term strategies meticulously and consider how coalition-building could emerge as a necessity. It may lead to unexpected alliances among those who perceive themselves as potential rivals. Such dynamics may reshape party lines and challenge entrenched power structures, creating opportunities for fresh voices to emerge in the process.
Dr. Namdas has effectively positioned himself as a major contender in a slowly evolving story that is set to unfold dramatically leading up to the 2027 elections. His pedigree as a political gladiator should not be underestimated, as it carries with it a narrative of resilience, leadership, and strategic foresight. The call for recalibration extends beyond mere numbers; it encompasses the very essence of political competitiveness, portraying how the emergence of a strong candidate can topple preconceived notions of who holds the leverage in the electoral process.
READ ALSO: https://newsng.ng/lent-and-ramadan-tribute-to-the-jagaban-of-burgu-and-the-jagoran-arewa/
Going forward, the political tides in Adamawa will likely see rival factions reassessing their stakes while also attempting to navigate a rapidly changing landscape fueled by the charisma and reputation of Dr. AbdulRazak Namdas. The question remains: will they be able to adapt effectively, or will they remain stuck in their old paradigms, unable to respond to the new reality defined by a candidate with the potential to unite the state under a common vision?
As spectators, we must watch carefully as this narrative unfolds. Political gladiators on all sides should now grapple with the implications of Dr. Namdas’s entry. For the people of Adamawa, this recalibration signifies a period of hope and possibility—an invitation to engage more deeply with their democratic processes and demand accountability from those vying for public office. It serves as a reminder that in politics, the stakes are exceedingly high, and the landscape is ever-changing, driven by the aspirations of leaders and the will of the people.
READ ALSO: https://newsng.ng/lent-and-ramadan-tribute-to-the-jagaban-of-burgu-and-the-jagoran-arewa/
The road to the 2027 governorship in Adamawa State is set to be a rollercoaster of strategic maneuvering, ideological battles, and grassroots mobilization, all sparked by the declaration of intentions from one determined man. Dr. AbdulRazak Namdas stands at the forefront of this pivotal moment, challenging both historical precedents and paving new paths toward a more inclusive and progressive political future for Adamawa State. The unfolding drama promises excitement, developments, and perhaps a transformation in the way politics is perceived and enacted in the region. Indeed, as the adage goes, “politics is war without bloodshed,” and in the case of Adamawa State, the battle lines have been drawn—now, it is up to the gladiators to determine their fate in this ever-evolving saga.
* James Bwala, PhD, writes from Abuja.
2027: Recalibration in Adamawa as Political Gladiators Return to the Drawing Board Over Dr. Namdas’s announcements to join the guber race
Mass defection hits Gombe State NNPP, SDP, LP as over 1, 000 leaders join APC
Ahead of the 2027 general election, the camp of the ruling APC in Gombe State received a boost as over 1, 000 opposition political leaders and members from Yamaltu/Deba Local Government Area of the state, on Monday defected to the All Progressives Congress (APC).
The opposition leaders and members are from the New Nigeria People’s Party (NNPP), Social Democratic Party (SDP) and Labour Party (LP).
They were received by Mr Inuwa Garba, member representing Yamaltu Federal Constituency in the House of Representatives in company of Mr Adamu Lambam, APC chairman, Yamaltu Deba LG.
Speaking during the ceremony in Lubo community in Yamaltu Deba LG, Malam Tasiu Isa, the Chairman of Social Democratic Party (SDP) in the council said joining APC was to strengthen the good governance being delivered by the party.
Isa said that Gov. Inuwa Yahaya of Gombe State and President Bola Tinubu have done well for the people through the execution of live-changing projects.
“We, the executives of the SDP from this LG and all the ward executives are joining the APC today and we are more than 500 officials.
“If we join our supporters and members, then we will be talking of thousands of SDP members; we are convinced that APC is the party to be because the party has good governance as evidence,” he said.
Isa commended Rep member Garba for his people-centric approach to representation, saying that Garba’s leadership style was complementing that of Gov. Yahaya.
For Mohammed Hinna, Labour Party chairman, Yamaltu Deba LG, joining APC remained the best option for any patriotic Nigeria who wants to see a better future for the country.
Hinna said with the efforts of President Tinubu and Gov. Yahaya, it would be difficult to remain in opposition, “if you truly a political leader that has the love of the people at heart.”
Mr Adamu Lambam, the APC chairman for Yamaltu Deba said more opposition leaders and members have been joining the APC at the council because of the good governance being delivered by Yahaya in their LG.
Lambam said that the party would continue to welcome anyone who wants to join the APC, adding that “APC is the people’s party because of the developmental strides of Tinubu, Inuwa and Garba.”
Reps member Garba said with the defection, the structure of opposition parties in the council has been weakened and “this is good for APC ahead of 2027.”
Garba said that the performance of Tinubu and Yahaya would make campaigning for APC ahead of 2027 election easier for them when the ban on campaign is lifted in August.
He appealed to members of the APC to remain united while mobilising more members at the grassroots by informing them of the many good things that Mr President and Yahaya have done.
Mass defection hits Gombe State NNPP, SDP, LP as over 1, 000 leaders join APC
Politics
Bayelsa: APC Chieftain Condemns Marginalized Congresses, Alleges Diri’s Plan To Use Isowo As State Party Chairman
Bayelsa: APC Chieftain Condemns Marginalized Congresses, Alleges Diri’s Plan To Use Isowo As State Party Chairman
Faults Akpe’s Nomination, Says Governance Now A Family Enterprise
A chieftain and founding member of the All Progressives Congress (APC) in Bayelsa State, Barr. David Perebo has expressed deep dissatisfaction over Bayelsa State Governor, Senator Douye Diri segregational, sidelining mode of conduct of the party ward and local government congresses.
Condemning in strong terms of the segregational mode of conduct of the APC ward and local government congresses across the state, the chieftain described the congresses as witch-hunt of a selected group of stakeholders, leaders in the party.
The APC member condemned the governor deliberate segregation of key stakeholders in various wards and local government areas are geared towards generating division.
Pursuant to the marginalized mode of conduct of the congresses, ward and local government executives of APC in Sagbama addressing the press, expressed dissatisfaction over non-inclusion of critical stakeholders who stood firmly as an opposition in building the party in Bayelsa state.
The party executives said Senator Diri inability to conduct all inclusive congresses in various wards, local governments across the state, has proven beyond shadow of doubt of the governor incapability to manage affairs of the party in Bayelsa state.
Governor Diri who couldn’t manage insignificant affairs of the Peoples Democratic Party, PDP leading to Mr George Turnah factional leadership in Bayelsa, has transferred the same attitude from the PDP to the APC barely four months of defection.
The statesmen said the governor has deceptively taken total control of the APC leadership structure in various wards and local government areas across the state, by installing his followers who defected to the APC from the PDP, while excluding old APC members who built the party.
Diri who preach all-inclusiveness in leadership, has deceptively taken over the leadership structures of Brass, Nembe, Yenagoa, Sagbama, Kolokuma-Opokuma, while allowing Sen. Heineken Lokpobiri, Dr. Samuel Ogbuku and David Lyon to nominate the Chairmen of Ekeremor, Ogbia and Southern-Ijaw as compensation.
Furthermore, the governor whose intentions failed woefully to use his relative, Mr Gesiye Isowo as at then Bayelsa PDP Secretary, as Bayelsa APC Caretaker Chairman before any official defection to the APC, has perfected preparations to use him as Chairman of APC in Bayelsa State.
Senator Douye Diri has perfected preparations to produce the Bayelsa APC Chairman, Secretary, including other relevant positions to take total control of the party structure in the state, as deliberate steps towards producing a governorship candidate in the next gubernatorial election.
Unknown to Lokpobiri, Ogbuku who are rumoured to have governorship ambitions in 2027, Governor Douye Diri will never support any of them as successor, rather he is nurturing a relative from Nembe extraction whose father is from Sampou to succeed him as Bayelsa Governor.
In the same vein, the APC chieftain has condemned the decision of the Bayelsa Governor, Senator Douye Diri over nomination of his maternal relative from Ayamasa town, Pastor Peter Pereotubo Akpe as Deputy Governor with motives to revolve the government as a family enterprise.
The chieftain who that stands for justice, fairness, and transparency in governance, has expressed intense dissatisfaction over Governor Douye Diri’s nomination of his relative as deputy governor against Bayelsans.
The sudden passing of the Bayelsa Deputy Governor, Senator Lawrence Ewhrudjakpo whose cause of sudden death still uncertain, created room for timely replacement of the office of the deputy governor according to Section 191 of the 1999 Constitution of the Federal Republic of Nigeria.
He said the governor has privatized governance of Bayelsa as a family enterprise with Akpe nomination as deputy when expected to choose from other competent Bayelsans.
Senator Diri has virtually privatized governance of Bayelsa by appointing only relatives in sensitive positions: Chief of Staff now Deputy Governor, Deputy Chief of Staff, Director of Domestic, Director of Transport, and other government house appointees.
The aggrieved party stakeholder said successive administrations since 1999 has credibly and transparently distributed political appointments across the three senatorial district, but the reverse has been the record in Senator Douye Diri administration.
The governor take decisions without putting into consideration of those who consciously built his political reputation. He defected to the APC without considering the feelings of leaders working closely with him.
Bayelsans has witnessed that the governor has no conscience and empathy, enveloped with greed and ingratitude against those who helped in building his political career and reputation; such as former President Goodluck Ebele Jonathan, Dr. Timi Alaibe, Senator Seriake Dickson.
Senator Diri political trajectory has been driven by pettiness, rumours, propaganda, capitalizing on illiteracy, poverty and stomach infrastructure syndrome of some Bayelsans, while privatizing and managing resources of the state as a family enterprise.
In self-delusional, deceptive pretense of building peace, unity, he brought in opposition members to replace those who fought (some lost their lives) for his emergence, instead of acknowledging, and compensating them for their support and sacrifices.
Douye was very selfish to abandon Jonathan, Alaibe in PDP, especially Dickson who believed and trusted him as successor. Yet, he embraced the people who fought against those who worked for him in the election.
The way and manner the governor had shown ingratitude to Jonathan, Dickson, Alaibe, and others, same thing he will do to Lokpobiri, Ogbuku, Lyon, and other leaders in the APC.
Douye doesn’t understand that those who are praising him, are doing so for political patronage (monetary terms), and desert him after office.
Signed:
Barr. David Perebo
APC Chieftain Writes From Yenagoa
Bayelsa: APC Chieftain Condemns Marginalized Congresses, Alleges Diri’s Plan To Use Isowo As State Party Chairman
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