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El-Rufai: A calculated yet potentially ineffectual strategy to challenge Tinubu and Shettima’s re-election bid in 2027.

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Malam Nasir El-Rufai, former governor, Kaduna state

El-Rufai: A calculated yet potentially ineffectual strategy to challenge Tinubu and Shettima’s re-election bid in 2027.

By: Dr. James Bwala

The recent political maneuver by former governor of Kaduna State, Malam Nasir El-Rufai, left many political observers laughing. El-Rufai remains a new clown in the political arena since his rejection as a minister from Kaduna State under the Tinubu administration. El-Rufai’s defection to the Social Democratic Party (SDP) represents a calculated yet potentially ineffectual strategy to challenge President Bola Tinubu and Vice President Kashim Shettima’s 2027 reelection bid. El-Rufai’s move, characterized by claims of ideological divergence from the APC, appears more rooted in personal political ambitions than substantive systemic transformation, which he continually hopes Nigerians believe. 

Critical analysis suggests that El-Rufai’s defection is symptomatic of intra-elite power reconfiguration rather than a genuine oppositional movement. The strategic repositioning reflects deeper fractures within Nigeria’s political landscape, where elite negotiations supersede meaningful democratic representation. While El-Rufai attempts to mobilize opposition figures like Peter Obi and Atiku Abubakar, the fundamental power structures remain remarkably unchanged.

Ultimately, the proposed alliance faces significant challenges. The fragmentation of opposition forces, combined with the APC’s entrenched political machinery, renders El-Rufai’s efforts potentially futile. His defection might be interpreted as a symbolic gesture rather than a substantive challenge to the incumbent administration, highlighting the persistent limitations of Nigeria’s contemporary political dynamics. He has been seen moving from one big political figure to another, including going to the home of the former president in an attempt to give credence to his moves, yet he could not clean up the traces of his aging and diminishing relevance in the circle of politics. Despite El-Rufai’s efforts, the entrenched political dynamics and the lack of a cohesive ideological framework within the opposition diminish the likelihood of any substantial electoral upset in 2027.

The lack of a unified vision and coherent policy proposals among these opposition figures only exacerbates their inability to present a credible alternative to the electorate. Given the historical context of electoral politics in Nigeria, the absence of a cohesive opposition strategy further compounds the challenge of altering the status quo, rendering El-Rufai’s defection more an act of political theater than a catalyst for genuine change. Moreover, the entrenched interests and loyalties within the APC continue to present formidable barriers to any meaningful opposition realignment. 

The political landscape appears to be more about individual ambitions and less about a unified front capable of mounting a serious challenge to the incumbent powers. This scenario underscores the cyclical nature of political realignments in Nigeria, where shifts often reflect personal ambitions rather than a genuine ideological departure from established norms. While El-Rufai’s attempts to forge alliances with other opposition figures such as Peter Obi, Atiku Abubakar, and Rabiu Kwankwaso signal a desire to create a formidable coalition, the reality remains that such alliances often crumble under the weight of competing interests and personal ambitions, leaving the electorate disillusioned with yet another cycle of political theatrics. Moreover, the historical pattern of political defections in Nigeria suggests that such moves are often perceived as mere strategic repositioning rather than genuine ideological shifts. 

Despite the theatrical nature of these political maneuvers, the entrenched power dynamics and loyalty networks within Nigeria’s political landscape make it exceedingly difficult for any new coalition, no matter how strategically crafted, to truly upend the status quo. While El-Rufai’s intentions may appear bold, they are unlikely to disrupt the deeply entrenched political machinery that has long favored incumbents like Tinubu and Shettima. 

Despite these efforts, the pervasive influence of existing political structures suggests that any such coalition is more likely to fracture under pressure rather than mount a successful challenge. Given the entrenched interests and historical voting patterns, it appears unlikely that such a coalition could effectively disrupt the established political dominance of Tinubu and Shettima in the upcoming election. This skepticism is further compounded by the perception that El-Rufai’s defection and subsequent coalition-building efforts are more about personal political survival than a genuine commitment to transformative change. Despite the apparent allure of a united front, the reality remains that these alliances often falter under the weight of conflicting agendas and entrenched political loyalties. Moreover, the historical precedent of political realignments in Nigeria often results in temporary alliances that lack the cohesion necessary to present a formidable challenge to established power structures. 

READ ALSO: https://newsng.ng/tinubushettima-the-epidemic-of-economic-insecurity-in-nigeria/

The skepticism surrounding El-Rufai’s defection is echoed by the Nigerian Presidency and APC, who dismiss his move as a futile endeavor motivated by personal ambition rather than a genuine ideological shift. Indeed, El-Rufai’s maneuver is less about ideological realignment and more a reconfiguration of elite power dynamics within the ruling class. As observed by many political analysts, the political landscape remains largely unchanged, with the same elite power dynamics at play, suggesting that any perceived threat from El-Rufai’s move is unlikely to materialize into a significant challenge.

This skepticism is further reinforced by the broader historical context of Nigerian politics, where similar attempts to consolidate opposition forces have often unraveled due to internal dissent and the prioritization of individual ambitions over collective goals. Additionally, the inherent volatility of such coalitions, often marred by a lack of unified vision and the dominance of competing interests, further diminishes their potential to unseat entrenched incumbents. Historical patterns also suggest that such coalitions often struggle to sustain momentum and coherence, especially when faced with the entrenched influence of incumbents like Tinubu and Vice President Kashim Shettima.

Given this context, El-Rufai’s efforts to rally opposition figures like Peter Obi and others around the SDP banner might appear ambitious, but without a cohesive strategy or compelling ideological narrative, such alliances are prone to fragmentation and ultimately ineffectual in altering the prevailing status quo. 

The entrenched political machinery supporting President Tinubu and Vice President Kashim Shettima possesses significant resources and influence, making it a formidable barrier for any nascent coalition lacking internal solidarity and a resonant national platform. Despite these strategic maneuvers, the historical precedent and current political landscape suggest that El-Rufai’s efforts may ultimately falter against the deeply entrenched systems supporting Tinubu and Shettima.

The historical resilience of incumbent structures in Nigerian politics, characterized by their adept patronage networks and control over vital state apparatuses, presents another significant challenge for any opposition coalition seeking to disrupt the status quo. Without a clear ideological foundation and a unified agenda that resonates with the broader electorate, such attempts are often perceived as mere political repositioning rather than genuine efforts to instigate meaningful change. In 2027, President Tinubu and Vice President Kashim Shettima will take the oath again for the second time, and El-Rufai will still have no political credibility to make a difference in Nigeria’s political circle. 

* James Bwala, PhD, writes from Abuja.

El-Rufai: A calculated yet potentially ineffectual strategy to challenge Tinubu and Shettima’s re-election bid in 2027.

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VP Kashim Shettima: In President Tinubu’s words, “Competent, Capable, Reliable, and Able.”

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Vice President, Kashim Shettima

VP Kashim Shettima: In President Tinubu’s words, “Competent, Capable, Reliable, and Able.”

By: Dr. James Bwala

In the contemporary landscape of Nigerian politics, the choice of leadership partners has become a critical discussion point, especially in light of the recent election that brought President Bola Ahmed Tinubu into office. When asked about his selection of Kashim Shettima as vice president, Tinubu articulated four words: competent, capable, reliable, and able. These descriptors not only reflect Shettima’s professional credentials but also signify a deliberate strategy aimed at revitalizing the hope of Nigerians for effective governance. Emphasizing these qualities offers a compelling argument in favor of Shettima’s appointment while countering any skepticism stemming from opposition narratives.

To begin with, the term “competent” underscores the necessity of skill and expertise in governance. Shettima’s track record as the former governor of Borno State is a noteworthy testament to his competence. He served during a period when the state faced severe challenges, particularly due to the Boko Haram insurgency. His ability to implement policies that fostered socio-economic development amidst chaos illustrates not only his technical acumen but also his adeptness in crisis management. This experience is pivotal for Nigeria, a nation grappling with issues ranging from security to economic recession. Competence in leadership ensures that policies are not merely theoretical constructs but actionable strategies tailored to address the nuances of Nigeria’s complex societal fabric.

Shettima’s capability extends beyond mere professional qualifications; it encompasses a unique blend of vision and pragmatism. The socio-political context of Nigeria is fraught with multifaceted challenges that require innovative yet realistic solutions. Shettima has shown an understanding of this intricate balance through various initiatives he spearheaded as governor. His administration focused on infrastructural development, education, and health care—all essential pillars for national growth. By choosing a partner who demonstrates such capability, Tinubu is not just making a political statement; he is assembling a team prepared to confront Nigeria’s pressing issues with informed solutions and strategic planning.

Reliability is another crucial aspect that Tinubu highlights in describing Shettima. In politics, reliability is often synonymous with trustworthiness and consistency. Shettima’s tenure in public service has been characterized by accountability and transparency, traits that are increasingly vital in a political arena often marred by corruption and scandals. For the Nigerian populace to invest their hopes in a new administration, they must feel assured that their leaders are dependable. Shettima’s history of fulfilling promises and maintaining integrity throughout his career establishes him as a figure of reliability—a necessary trait in a vice president who is often required to step into the president’s shoes.

READ ALSO: https://newsng.ng/the-state-security-service-dg-adeola-oluwatosin-ajayi-and-the-challenges-of-leadership/

The word “able” encapsulates the essence of readiness and capability to perform in high-pressure environments. An able vice president must not only support the president but also be prepared to take the helm in case of unforeseen circumstances. Shettima’s diverse experiences, encompassing governance, public policy, and even crisis intervention, equip him to adapt and respond aptly to any situation. This versatility is paramount as Nigeria undergoes transformations that demand agile responses from its leadership. The pandemic, economic downturns, and security crises present scenarios where an able leader can make significant differences in outcomes.

Critics may argue that Shettima’s background, particularly his association with the All Progressives Congress (APC) and the political turmoil in Borno State, tarnishes his reputation. However, such assertions fail to acknowledge the broader context of his accomplishments and the essential qualities that define his leadership. Political affiliations should not overshadow individual merit. Shettima’s resume includes innovative approaches to governance that have garnered both regional and national recognition, proving that his capabilities extend beyond partisan lines.

Amidst opposition claims, it is crucial to recognize that discourse surrounding leadership choices often reflects broader political machinations rather than genuine concerns for national welfare. The framing of Shettima as someone unfit for the vice presidency serves more to galvanize opposition factions than to serve the interests of the Nigerian people. The essence of democracy lies in constructive dialogue and debate, yet dismissive rhetoric without substantial evidence is counterproductive. As citizens engage with political narratives, it is vital to discern between legitimate criticisms and those motivated by the desire to undermine progress. We have seen that in those coming on air to push it from a myopic mind. 

For those still talking as we look towards the 2027 general elections, it becomes essential to reiterate that the terms “competence,” “capability,” “reliability,” and “ability” are not mere buzzwords—they are the very foundation upon which effective governance rests. Shettima embodies these attributes, positioning him as an invaluable partner in Tinubu’s vision for a renewed hope for Nigeria. The country faces numerous challenges, and only through a collaborative and well-equipped leadership can Nigeria navigate its path toward prosperity.

As citizens, it is incumbent upon us to critically assess our leaders and their choices, demanding accountability while remaining vigilant against unfounded allegations that seek to derail progress. By focusing on tangible results and the attributes that make effective leaders, we can foster a political culture that values competence and integrity over opportunism. The clarion call for partnership, led by Tinubu and Shettima, emphasizes the notion that effective governance requires teamwork, resilience, and a steadfast commitment to the people of Nigeria. In this shared journey, every Nigerian has a role to play in holding their leaders accountable, ensuring that hope translates not merely into rhetoric but into real, actionable change that uplifts the nation as a whole. 

* James Bwala, Ph.D., writes from Abuja. 

VP Kashim Shettima: In President Tinubu’s words, “Competent, Capable, Reliable, and Able.”

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2027: There Is a Shift in Northern Support Towards Tinubu and Shettima

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Tinubu and Shettima

2027: There Is a Shift in Northern Support Towards Tinubu and Shettima

By: Dr. James Bwala

Recently, the evolving political dynamics in Northern Nigeria ahead of the 2027 presidential election reveal a significant shift in support towards President Bola Tinubu and Vice President Kashim Shettima. This change challenges earlier apprehensions surrounding the Muslim-Muslim ticket, which faced considerable criticism in 2023 for potentially alienating key Christian constituencies within the North-Central and Middle Belt regions. Contrary to these concerns, influential political groups such as the North-Central APC Forum have expressed robust backing for the Tinubu-Shettima ticket, citing sustained regional support driven by strategic appointments of prominent Christian leaders and tangible governance achievements. 

I recalled sitting in the congregation on a Sunday morning earlier this year and listening to the preacher. His words struck me with the assurance of faith in the APC administration. It solidifies my continuous advocacy that Nigeria is on the path of the renewed hope promised by the Tinubu and Shettima administration. The charges on the direction this administration is taking and what they were able to achieve further strengthen my appeal for confidence that, like never before in the history of this great country, we have found leaders who are truly committed to bringing back our long-lost hope by the renewal initiative the Tinubu and Kashim Shettima leadership is taking to every doorstepacross Nigeria. A hope—long lost in leadership—is found here with Tinubu and Shettima. 

He spoke also on the lingering political questions between the president and his vice, describing the permutations around the rift within the first and second families and predictions by certain classes and groups as evil seeds, which can never come to pass. This has come true with the message of goodwill from President Bola Ahmed Tinubu to Vice President Kashim Shettima during the celebration of his 59th birthday. Indeed, the silence that greeted those hoping to see Kashim Shettima replaced confirms the preacher’s testament. The retention of Shettima as running mate is seen not only as a continuation of a winning formula but also as a critical factor in consolidating northern votes estimated to reach up to 90% in certain areas. Indeed, the endorsements from coalitions like the Northern Progressives Coalition underscore an emerging consensus that transcends previous religious and ethnic fault lines, suggesting a recalibration of political allegiances based on performance and perceived stability. 

This transition is primarily influenced by several factors, including the performance of previous leaders, regional interests, and the appeal of Tinubu and Shettima as candidates. The North has historically been a vital political bloc in Nigeria. Its immense population translates to significant voting power. Despite the appeal by the coalition leaders, the dissatisfaction of northern voters with candidates like Atiku Abubakar, Nasir el-Rufai, and Peter Obi has been growing. Atiku, a veteran politician, has repeatedly contested for the presidency without achieving success. Many in the North may feel fatigued by his long political career and perceive a lack of fresh ideas or strategies to solve pressing issues. 

On the other hand, El-Rufai, despite his role as the Governor of Kaduna State, is often criticized for his handling of security challenges in the region. The North has faced a surge in violence, kidnappings, and terrorism over the years, and some citizens believe el-Rufai’s policies were inadequate. Consequently, confidence in him has diminished as voters seek more reliable leadership in times of crisis.For Mr. Peter Obi, a former governor of Anambra State, he gained popularity due to his focus on education and economic reforms. However, his appeal may not resonate as strongly in the North, where issues such as security and religious sentiments are of greater concern. As people evaluate their choices, they may prioritize candidates who can address these critical issues effectively. 

Whether the opposition agrees or not, those who have been following development in Nigeria know that President Bola Tinubu and Vice President Kashim Shettima present a promising alternative for Northern voters. Both have established political careers. Tinubu, a former governor of Lagos State, is known for his influential political machinery and his ability to build alliances across parties. Shettima, his running mate, has been involved in addressing the Boko Haram insurgency during his tenure as governor of Borno State. Their combined experience appeals to voters who are weary of ineffective leadership and are looking for pragmatic solutions to Nigeria’s challenges. 

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The regional loyalty also plays a crucial role in the upcoming elections. The North may feel inclined to support candidates who are capable of uniting Nigeria. Tinubu and Shettima’s collaborative approach could foster a sense of national cohesion, further solidifying their candidacy in the hearts of Northern voters. As the political landscape evolves in preparation for the 2027 elections, Tinubu and Shettima’s experience, strategies, and ability to address pressing concerns, as shown by their leadership styles, position them as formidable candidates, likely to gain substantial support from the North in the upcoming elections. 

While the political trajectory of Nigeria’s presidency under Bola Tinubu and Vice President Kashim Shettima suggests a continued consolidation of power leading into the 2027 election. Observers and party insiders alike have expressed confidence that the duo will secure victory with a significantly wider margin than in the 2023 polls. This assertion is grounded in several factors, including Tinubu’s strategic governance approach, Shettima’s regional appeal, and their combined ability to maintain a broad coalition across Nigeria’s diverse electorate. 

Despite initial controversies surrounding the Muslim-Muslim ticket, which some analysts feared could alienate key voter blocs, the administration has demonstrated inclusiveness and political dexterity that mitigate such concerns. The careful selection of Shettima as vice president was not only a move to balance regional interests but also to strengthen party unity and electoral prospects. Indeed, internal party structures such as those advocated by influential groups like the North-Central APC Forum highlight strong grassroots support for retaining this ticket, emphasizing their proven effectiveness in mobilizing voters across critical regions.

*James Bwala, PhD, writes from Abuja. 

2027: There Is a Shift in Northern Support Towards Tinubu and Shettima

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Shettima’s 59th Birthday: President Tinubu’s Stand Against Calls for Replacement

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VP kashim Shettima

Shettima’s 59th Birthday: President Tinubu’s Stand Against Calls for Replacement

Dr. James Bwala

On September 2, 2025, Nigeria’s Vice President Kashim Shettima celebrated his 59th birthday amidst much public discussion about his political future. Until now, there have been murmurs from certain groups, including political analysts, critics, and so-called prophets, suggesting that Shettima should be replaced. This narrative has sparked significant debate across the country, especially in light of the ongoing economic challenges and security issues Nigeria faces. However, President Bola Tinubu’s unwavering support for Shettima on this special occasion silenced many of those voices, showcasing a united front within the Nigerian government. 

The president’s decision to publicly praise Vice President Kashim Shettima on the occasion of his birthday highlighted their strong political alliance and friendship. While he described Vice President Shettima as a dedicated leader and a loyal partner in governance, he effectively countered the claims made by those hoping to see Shettima replaced. This celebration was not just a personal milestone for the vice president but also a political statement, affirming that the current administration stands firm against any factions that might want to disrupt their unity. 

The so-called “cabal”—a term often used to describe a group of influential individuals within Nigerian politics—has faced significant scrutiny in recent years. Critics suggest that these individuals try to influence political decisions behind the scenes. However, by publicly supporting Shettima, President Tinubu demonstrates his refusal to allow the cabal’s influence to dictate the direction of his administration. This move is a clear signal to both his supporters and detractors that he is confident in his choices. 

Attention also focused on so-called prophets and doomsayers who predicted the vice president’s imminent replacement. These individuals often use social media and public forums to express their predictions, which can create uncertainty. Yet, Tinubu’s positive acknowledgment of Shettima defied these narratives, illustrating that the government is not swayed by speculative concerns or negative forecasts. 

READ ALSO:https://newsng.ng/vp-kashim-shettima-the-strengths-of-experience-at-59/

Shettima’s 59th birthday became a pivotal moment in Nigerian politics, emphasizing unity and resilience within the current administration. President Tinubu’s support for the vice president serves not only to repel calls for Shettima’s replacement but also to reinforce the notion that stability is vital for Nigeria’s progress. This reflection of solidarity is crucial as the country navigates various challenges, showing that collaboration and loyalty are key ingredients in leadership.

The move by President Tinubu on this occasion reminds citizens that the political landscape is influenced not just by predictions but also by the strength of leaders working together for the common good. The political climate in many countries has shown how leadership can shape the future. Political predictions often forecast outcomes based on past trends, statistics, and public sentiment. While these predictions can serve as guidelines, they do not always capture the essence of what will actually happen. Instead, the true power lies in the ability of leaders to come together, set aside differences, and work toward shared goals. 

President Tinubu’s latest initiatives illustrate this point. By assembling a diverse group of leaders from various backgrounds, he demonstrates that collective efforts can lead to better decision-making and more substantial outcomes for citizens. 

An excellent example of unified leadership is seen in the responses to major challenges, such as economic downturns or public health crises. During the COVID-19 pandemic, leaders around the world had to collaborate to share resources, information, and strategies. Countries that exemplified unity, like New Zealand, achieved better health outcomes and maintained public trust. Similarly, President Tinubu, by working closely with other political figures and community leaders, can build a resilient framework that helps Nigeria navigate its challenges. 

When leaders display teamwork and solidarity, it inspires citizens to unite as well and develop such public trust and confidence in the government, which often hinges on the perceived integrity and cooperative nature of its leaders. If citizens see their leaders working towards common objectives, they are more likely to engage positively with political processes. Indeed, collaborative leadership fosters innovation. When leaders from different political parties or sectors come together, they bring diverse perspectives and ideas. This exchange can lead to creative solutions for longstanding issues, such as poverty, education, and infrastructure. President Tinubu’s administration has the potential to tap into this resource, maximizing the benefits of a collaborative approach. 

The political landscape is not merely shaped by forecasts but significantly influenced by the cooperation of leaders aiming for the common good. This is exactly what the Jagaban did and presented a reminder of the power of unity in leadership. By promoting collaboration, leaders can tackle challenges effectively while inspiring their citizens to contribute to a better society. This approach will ultimately lead to positive changes and a brighter future for all come 2027.

James Bwala, PhD, writes from Abuja

Shettima’s 59th Birthday: President Tinubu’s Stand Against Calls for Replacement

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