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Fuel Subsidy Removal and the 2027 Election: Was Nigeria Ready for the Shock?

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2 months ago

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Fuel Subsidy Removal and the 2027 Election: Was Nigeria Ready for the Shock?

By: Victor E Emejuiwe

The conversation around fuel subsidy removal has returned to the center of Nigeria’s political debate following the decision of the Presidential Candidate of the African Democratic Congress (ADC), Atiku Abubakar, to make the restoration of petrol subsidy part of his 2027 campaign proposition. Atiku has maintained that he would restore the subsidy, while critics within the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) have questioned the economic wisdom of such a proposal and accused him of using the policy to win voters.

But beyond the political argument, there is a more fundamental question that Nigerians must ask: Was the removal of fuel subsidy, under the circumstances in which it was implemented, the right economic decision?

There are strong economic arguments for removing fuel subsidy. For many years, Nigeria spent enormous public resources subsidising petrol, resources that could have been deployed to infrastructure, healthcare, education, social protection and other areas of development. The World Bank estimated that Nigeria’s petrol subsidy cost the country more than ₦8.6 trillion between 2019 and 2022 and described the arrangement as costly, regressive and opaque.

The first argument, therefore, is the need to create fiscal space for development. If government no longer spends huge amounts keeping petrol prices artificially low, those resources can potentially be redirected towards infrastructure and productive investments. In principle, this should create room for private-sector investment, improve productivity and expand economic opportunities.

Secondly, the history of the subsidy regime raises serious questions about corruption and accountability. A system that is difficult to monitor and that allows public resources to leak through fraudulent claims, diversion, smuggling and other abuses cannot be considered sustainable. The World Bank has also noted that the former subsidy system created incentives for smuggling and benefited relatively better-off consumers rather than the poorest Nigerians.

Thirdly, Nigeria’s petroleum sector has already moved towards a market-based pricing framework. Section 205 of the Petroleum Industry Act provides that wholesale and retail prices of petroleum products shall be based on unrestricted free-market pricing conditions, while allowing regulatory intervention where a licensed activity becomes a monopoly or is excessively dominated by a supplier.

Therefore, the economic argument for moving away from a permanent, open-ended petrol subsidy is not without merit.

However, the more important question is whether subsidy removal on its own is sufficient to improve Nigeria’s economy and the welfare of Nigerians.

This is where the current reality of Nigeria must be considered. The 2022 National Multidimensional Poverty Index found that about 63 percent of Nigerians, approximately 133 million people, were multidimensionally poor. This does not mean that all 133 million people were below the monetary poverty line; rather, they experienced multiple deprivations in areas such as living standards, education, health, employment and access to basic services.

Nigeria’s income level also remains low. World Bank data put Nigeria’s GDP per capita at about US$1,084 in 2024. While GDP per capita is not a direct measure of individual living standards, it illustrates the limited income base within which most Nigerian households are expected to absorb rising transportation, food and energy costs.

This is why the manner and timing of subsidy removal matter. For millions of Nigerians who depend on petrol-powered transportation, generators and small businesses, an increase in petrol prices does not stop at the filling station. It moves through the economy. Transport fares rise, the cost of moving agricultural produce increases, businesses spend more on energy, and the prices of goods and services rise.

The World Bank acknowledged that petrol price increases following the reform contributed to inflationary pressures. By December 2023, retail gasoline prices had increased by an average of 163 percent, while inflation had risen substantially, with the World Bank attributing part of the pressure to the one-off effect of subsidy removal. By May 2024, Nigeria’s annual inflation had reached 33.95 percent. The argument, therefore, should not simply be subsidy versus no subsidy. The more important question should be: What conditions must exist before subsidy is completely removed?

I strongly believe that if Nigeria must remove petrol subsidy, it should be done through a clearly defined and measurable transition. The first condition should be the availability of functional domestic refineries. A country that produces crude oil should have sufficient capacity to refine a significant proportion of its crude domestically. Nigeria’s dependence on imported refined petroleum products exposes consumers to international prices, foreign exchange fluctuations and exchange-rate shocks.

Government should therefore prioritise domestic refining capacity. This does not necessarily mean that government must own every refinery. Existing government-owned refineries should either be rehabilitated where economically viable or replaced where rehabilitation is no longer rational. At the same time, private refineries should be encouraged to operate within a competitive and transparent market.

With sufficient domestic refining capacity, the country can reduce its dependence on imported petrol and limit the foreign-exchange pressures associated with fuel imports. This could create room for a more gradual reduction of government intervention without transferring the entire shock to consumers. At that stage, a partial removal or targeted subsidy could be considered.

The next phase should be a serious investment in alternative sources of transportation and energy. Government cannot ask Nigerians to absorb the full cost of petrol while alternatives remain inaccessible. CNG conversion kits, electric vehicles, efficient public transportation, rail services and other cleaner energy options must be developed alongside adequate refuelling and charging infrastructure.

If a substantial proportion of Nigerians have access to affordable alternatives to petrol-powered transportation, the economy will be better positioned to absorb the complete removal of petrol subsidy.

This is particularly important because the success of subsidy removal should not be measured only by the amount of money government saves. It should also be measured by whether Nigerians have better transportation, lower logistics costs, more reliable electricity, increased productivity and improved household welfare.

There must also be transparency in whatever subsidy arrangement government chooses to operate. If government decides to provide a targeted subsidy, it must be capped, properly budgeted, independently audited and publicly reported. Every naira spent should be traceable. The actors responsible for approving, administering and receiving subsidy payments must be identifiable and accountable.

This is particularly important because the government has now disclosed that the removal of petrol subsidy mobilised an estimated ₦15.8 trillion in resources for the Federation between June 2023 and December 2025. Of this amount, about ₦5.43 trillion was attributed to the Federal Government, while ₦6.52 trillion went to states and ₦3.88 trillion to local governments.

This disclosure answers part of the question about where the resources went. But it also creates another important policy question: What measurable improvements in the lives of Nigerians can be attributed to these additional resources?

The states and local governments, which received a substantial share of these resources through the Federation Account, should be required to demonstrate how additional revenues have translated into better healthcare, education, roads, public transportation, water, social protection and other services.

The Federal Government must equally demonstrate that the fiscal space created by subsidy removal is producing tangible development outcomes.

The problem with the Tinubu administration’s approach was not necessarily the economic principle behind subsidy removal. The problem was the speed and sequencing of the reform and the inadequacy of the measures introduced to protect vulnerable Nigerians from the immediate shock.

The removal was announced abruptly in May 2023, and petrol prices rose sharply almost immediately. The World Bank warned at the time that without adequate compensation, higher petrol prices could push vulnerable households further into poverty and force families to reduce spending on essential needs such as education and healthcare.

The government subsequently introduced palliative measures and social transfers, but the scale, speed and sustainability of these interventions became a subject of considerable public concern. Temporary relief cannot substitute for a comprehensive social protection system capable of protecting households during major economic reforms.

The consequences have also extended to government itself. When fuel prices, transportation costs, construction materials and other inputs rise sharply, the cost of executing public infrastructure projects also increases. Therefore, part of the fiscal gains created by subsidy removal can be eroded if inflation and exchange-rate pressures substantially increase the cost of government spending. This is why subsidy removal cannot be treated as an isolated economic reform.

It must be accompanied by policies that increase domestic production, stabilise the foreign exchange market, expand public transportation, improve electricity supply, strengthen social protection and reduce the cost of doing business.

The current debate between the APC and the ADC should therefore go beyond whether Atiku’s proposal to restore subsidy is politically motivated or whether the APC was right to remove it.

The real question is whether Nigeria can design a subsidy system that protects vulnerable citizens without recreating the corruption and fiscal burden of the past. Similarly, the government must answer whether the savings from subsidy removal have been converted into improvements that ordinary Nigerians can actually see and feel.

The Federal Government says the subsidy reform created substantial fiscal space, and there is evidence to support the fact that significant resources became available to the Federation. But the economic success of the reform cannot be judged by fiscal savings alone. A reform that improves government finances while leaving citizens unable to afford transportation, food, healthcare and basic services will continue to face legitimate questions about its social sustainability.

For this reason, Nigerians may be receptive to Atiku’s promise to restore subsidy, not necessarily because they believe subsidy is the best economic policy, but because they are responding to the economic hardship they have experienced since its removal. That reality could become politically significant in the 2027 general election.

The lesson for Nigeria is therefore not that subsidy must permanently remain or that subsidy must permanently disappear. The lesson is that economic reforms must be sequenced around the capacity of citizens to absorb them. Nigeria needs a petroleum policy that reduces waste, discourages corruption, promotes domestic refining, attracts investment and protects public finances. But it also needs an economic system that protects ordinary Nigerians from sudden and unbearable shocks.

If subsidy must eventually disappear completely, then government must first build the conditions that make its disappearance economically and socially sustainable. The ultimate measure of subsidy reform should not be how much government saves, but how much better Nigerians are able to live.

Victor E Emejuiwe
Programs Manager
CHRICED
RESOURCE CENTRE for HUMAN RIGHTS
& CIVIC EDUCATION
08068262366

Fuel Subsidy Removal and the 2027 Election: Was Nigeria Ready for the Shock?

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Nigeria, India Sign Landmark Human Rights Pact, Fagbemi Backs Stronger Institutional Independence

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9 hours ago

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November 10, 2026

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Nigeria, India Sign Landmark Human Rights Pact, Fagbemi Backs Stronger Institutional Independence

…AGF pledges justice ministry’s support for implementation, demands practical safeguards for citizens in AI era

By: Michael Mike

Nigeria and India have signed a bilateral agreement to strengthen human rights protection, institutional capacity and access to justice, with the Attorney-General of the Federation and Minister of Justice, Prince Lateef Fagbemi, SAN, pledging the Federal Government’s support for its implementation.

Fagbemi, who described the agreement as a strategic partnership between the two countries, said its success would ultimately be measured by its impact on ordinary citizens, particularly vulnerable and marginalised groups seeking justice.

The agreement, executed between the National Human Rights Commission (NHRC) of Nigeria and its Indian counterpart, is designed to deepen institutional cooperation, facilitate knowledge transfer, promote technical exchanges and strengthen operational capacity in addressing human rights violations.

The Attorney-General gave the government’s position on Tuesday in Abuja when he received a joint delegation of the two commissions at the Federal Ministry of Justice, describing the partnership as timely, particularly in an increasingly interconnected world where effective human rights protection requires stronger legal frameworks, institutional collaboration and respect for the rule of law.

The development followed a high-level engagement between the two commissions and the Chief Justice of Nigeria (CJN), at the Supreme Court Complex, Abuja, on Monday, as part of a two-day working visit by the Indian delegation.

The Nigerian delegation was led by the Executive Secretary of NHRC, Chief Tony Ojukwu, SAN, OFR, while the Indian delegation was headed by the Chairperson of India’s NHRC, Justice V. Ramasubramanian, accompanied by the Commission’s Joint Secretary, Mr. Samir Kumar.

Fagbemi said the partnership brought together two major democracies with shared common-law traditions, diverse populations and dynamic constitutional frameworks, expressing satisfaction with the thematic areas identified for cooperation under the agreement.

He specifically highlighted access to justice and the protection of digital rights as critical areas requiring urgent attention, particularly as emerging technologies, including Artificial Intelligence, continue to reshape society and create new human rights concerns.

According to him, both countries must develop legal safeguards to protect data privacy, prevent algorithmic bias and safeguard civic space, while ensuring that technological advancement does not undermine fundamental freedoms.

He said the Ministry of Justice expected the two commissions to produce actionable research and policy recommendations capable of addressing these emerging challenges.

Beyond emerging technologies, the Attorney-General stressed that Nigeria’s commitment to human rights must be reflected in the practical implementation of constitutional guarantees and international obligations, rather than merely in the existence of legal provisions.

He cited the African Charter on Human and Peoples’ Rights, which Nigeria domesticated through the African Charter on Human and Peoples’ Rights (Ratification and Enforcement) Act, Cap. A9, Laws of the Federation of Nigeria 2004, as a major instrument underpinning the country’s human rights jurisprudence.

The Charter provides important protections relating to non-discrimination, human dignity, fair trial and personal liberty, reinforcing the fundamental rights guaranteed under Nigeria’s Constitution.

Fagbemi maintained that the true measure of a country’s commitment to human rights was its ability to translate constitutional provisions into accessible institutions, accountable public authorities and an independent judiciary.

He assured the Indian delegation that the Federal Ministry of Justice fully supported the bilateral initiative and was prepared to facilitate technical engagements, joint legal reviews and policy consultations aimed at improving the efficiency of the justice sector.

The Attorney-General also used the engagement to reaffirm the institutional independence of Nigeria’s National Human Rights Commission, stressing that its autonomy was essential to its credibility and effectiveness.

He specifically drew attention to Section 6(3) of the National Human Rights Commission (Amendment) Act, 2010, which provides that the Commission, in exercising its statutory functions, shall not be subject to the direction or control of any other authority or person.

According to him, the administration has continued to respect and protect the Commission’s statutory independence, describing it as fundamental to institutional integrity.

He further noted that the relationship between the NHRC and the Federal Ministry of Justice had been characterised by constructive institutional synergy, mutual respect and a shared commitment to advancing human rights.

The Attorney-General commended Ojukwu and the Nigerian commission for spearheading the bilateral initiative, while expressing appreciation to the Indian delegation for bringing its expertise and institutional experience to the partnership.

Earlier, during Monday’s engagement with the Chief Justice of Nigeria, the Executive Secretary of NHRC Nigeria had emphasised the complementary responsibilities of the judiciary and national human rights institutions in protecting fundamental freedoms, upholding the rule of law and ensuring access to justice.

Ojukwu identified complaint management, Alternative Dispute Resolution, security sector accountability, comparative legal research, digital rights, Artificial Intelligence ethics and environmental justice as priority areas for cooperation between both countries.

The Chief Justice reaffirmed the commitment of the Nigerian Judiciary to human rights protection and encouraged both commissions to exchange experiences and adopt best practices, particularly in strengthening safeguards for vulnerable groups, including women, children and persons with disabilities.

The Indian delegation described the engagement as significant to relations between the two countries, noting that the MoU represented a first-of-its-kind institutional partnership for India’s National Human Rights Commission.

The agreement is expected to promote sustained institutional exchanges, strengthen complaint-handling mechanisms, improve professional capacity and encourage comparative research into legal and policy approaches to human rights protection.

The partnership also comes at a time when national human rights institutions face increasing demands to address abuses linked to security operations, discrimination, environmental degradation, digital surveillance and the misuse of emerging technologies.

For Nigeria, the collaboration offers an opportunity to strengthen its human rights enforcement architecture through international knowledge-sharing while reinforcing the independence and operational effectiveness of its national commission.

Fagbemi, however, cautioned that the ultimate benchmark of the agreement must go beyond official engagements and institutional exchanges to deliver tangible improvements in the lives of citizens, especially those most vulnerable to violations and denied access to justice.

He wished the Indian delegation a productive stay in Nigeria and expressed confidence that the partnership would advance the shared commitment of both countries to human dignity, justice and the protection of fundamental rights.

Nigeria, India Sign Landmark Human Rights Pact, Fagbemi Backs Stronger Institutional Independence

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NSCDC Strengthens Gender Policy Implementation, Trains Officers on SGBV, Digital Safety

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9 hours ago

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November 10, 2026

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NSCDC Strengthens Gender Policy Implementation, Trains Officers on SGBV, Digital Safety

By: Michael Mike

Corps partners SPRING, FCDO, TechHer to promote women’s participation in peacebuilding, tackle technology-facilitated violence

The Nigeria Security and Civil Defence Corps (NSCDC) has intensified efforts to combat sexual and gender-based violence (SGBV), strengthen women’s participation in security decision-making and promote digital safety among young people through the implementation of its Gender Policy II.

The Commandant-General of the Corps, Prof. Ahmed Audi, stated this at a two-day Gender, Women, Peace and Security capacity-building training organised at the NSCDC College and Support Staff Service, Udege, Nasarawa State.

The training was organised in collaboration with Strengthening Peace and Resilience in Nigeria (SPRING), with support from the United Kingdom’s Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office (FCDO).

Audi, who delivered his keynote address through a representative, said the policy provided a framework for mainstreaming gender considerations into the Corps’ operations, personnel management, leadership structure and community engagement.

He stressed the need for effective prevention and response to sexual and gender-based violence, including conflict-related abuses and technology-facilitated violence.

The Commandant-General also called for increased participation of women in peacebuilding and security decision-making, equal opportunities within the Corps and stronger partnerships with traditional institutions, government agencies, civil society organisations and development partners.

He urged commands and personnel, particularly Gender Desk Officers, to ensure effective coordination, timely reporting, appropriate referrals, monitoring and accountability in handling gender-related cases.

Audi described the implementation of the policy as a collective responsibility requiring sustained commitment across all levels of the Corps.

In a goodwill message, the Osu Ajiri of Edege Chiefdom, Alhaji Suleiman Ahmed Eko IV, commended the NSCDC for its presence in the community, saying its operations had strengthened the sense of security among residents, particularly farmers.

The traditional ruler pledged the support of his council in addressing gender-based violence, describing the protection of the community as a priority.

Earlier, the Commander of the College, ACG Jamilu Indabawa, said collaboration among relevant stakeholders was critical to achieving effective implementation of the gender policy.

The Gender Equality, Diversity and Social Inclusion Lead of SPRING, Mrs Amina Akano-Bello, said the training was designed to promote peaceful and resilient communities through early identification and response to gender-based violence, as well as the inclusion of women and young people in leadership.

Also, the NSCDC National Headquarters Gender Unit Adviser, DCC Ajet Kemi, provided participants with insights into the different forms of sexual and gender-based violence, their societal implications and preventive measures.

A retired Assistant Commandant-General, Ahmed Abodurin, who facilitated a session on institutional ethics in gender policy implementation, emphasised professionalism, accountability, gender sensitivity and adherence to institutional standards.

Beyond the capacity-building exercise, the Corps partnered TechHer, an organisation promoting women’s advancement through technology, to extend digital safety awareness to schools in Udege.

The outreach, themed “Stop Technology-Facilitated Gender-Based Violence”, educated students on the dangers of digital abuse, responsible online behaviour and measures for staying safe in digital spaces.

Representatives of the Federal Ministry of Interior, Nasarawa State Ministry of Women Affairs and Social Development, Nasarawa State Ministry of Justice and Gammuo International also delivered goodwill messages, reaffirming the importance of collective action in advancing gender equality, peace and security.

NSCDC Strengthens Gender Policy Implementation, Trains Officers on SGBV, Digital Safety

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Bank customer alleges N2.59m theft from two GTBank accounts

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11 hours ago

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November 10, 2026

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Bank customer alleges N2.59m theft from two GTBank accounts

By: Michael Mike

A customer of Guaranty Trust Bank, Stella Adepegba, has accused the bank of negligence after fraudsters allegedly stole N2.59m from two accounts belonging to her and her daughter within 24 days.

Adepegba said the incidents occurred on October 8 and November 1, 2026, with the perpetrators allegedly transferring funds without authorisation or security notifications.

She accused the bank of failing to refund the money despite repeated complaints and assurances that the matter would be resolved.

According to her, the first incident involved her daughter, Victoria Adepegba, whose Child Saver’s Account was allegedly compromised on October 8 at about 8pm.

She explained that N2.507m was transferred through the Nigeria Inter-Bank Settlement System Instant Payment channel in four transactions, leaving less than N2,000 in the account.

Adepegba said N399,000, N398,000 and N220,000 were transferred to a Moniepoint account bearing the name Abdulmalik Idris, while another N1.49m went to a GoMoney account bearing the name Zainab Ibrahim.

She alleged that no debit alerts were received, adding that a GTBank employee informed her of the transactions and offered to block the account after the money had already been withdrawn.

The complainant said she reported the incident at the bank’s Kubwa branch in Abuja on October 9 and was instructed to document the unauthorised transactions.

However, she alleged that the bank subsequently sent an email attributing the transactions to compromised login credentials, an explanation she rejected.

Adepegba said another N80,000 was fraudulently transferred from her personal GTBank account on November 1 to a FairMoney account bearing the name Jamilu Ahmad, bringing the cumulative loss to N2.587m.

“GTB could not explain how the hackers successfully stole my money despite changing my account’s log-in details after the attack on my daughter’s account. The bank must refund the stolen funds and go after those who masterminded the fraud,” she said.

She insisted that her mobile phone, SIM card and ATM card were in her possession during both incidents, adding that she neither disclosed her banking credentials nor received OTP requests.

“The implication of these targeted attacks on my bank accounts is that no customer’s funds are safe with GTB, and if anything happens, the bank will not accept responsibility or offer any succour whatsoever,” she lamented.

She stated that a compliance officer, Innocent Ukatu, and the bank’s media consultant, Cornelius Onuoha, initially assured her that the complaint would be resolved.

Reacting to the incident, the Chief Communications Officer of Guaranty Trust Holding Company Plc, Mrs Oyinade Adegite, said the incidents had been investigated and feedback provided to the customer.

She attributed the compromise to customer-side security vulnerabilities, explaining that fraudsters increasingly deploy sophisticated phishing techniques to obtain banking credentials.

“Immediately this came up, it was escalated and investigated, and feedback has been given,” she said.

Adegite explained that customers could unknowingly compromise their accounts by clicking malicious links that install malware that can capture sensitive information.

“Now it’s a phishing link you might click on that sometimes would actually install malware on your phone,” she said.

She maintained that the bank had implemented the necessary security safeguards, including two-factor authentication, and insisted the compromise originated on the customer’s end.

“All the measures the bank has to put in place for us, 2FA, everything was done. So, the compromise came clearly from the customer,” she stated.

However, she expressed sympathy for the losses and said she would follow up on the second incident to explore possible intervention.

The allegations come amid regulatory scrutiny of Nigerian banks over consumer protection and compliance failures.

An earlier analysis of audited financial statements showed that Guaranty Trust Holding Company, GTBank’s parent company, incurred N383.65m in regulatory penalties in Nigeria in 2024.

The sanctions included N56m for consumer protection violations, N160.4m following a Central Bank of Nigeria mystery shopping exercise, N149.25m for compliance-related issues and bank email returns, and N18m following a foreign exchange examination.

Bank customer alleges N2.59m theft from two GTBank accounts

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