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Lest Nigerian Youths Be Deceived By Obasanjo’s Sanctimony And Revisionism

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Lest Nigerian Youths Be Deceived By Obasanjo’s Sanctimony And Revisionism

By: Dele Alake

On the whole, the latest epistolary misadventure by Chief Olusegun Obasanjo is a gratuitous insult on the collective intelligence of Nigerians. In particular, his laborious attempt to prey on the innocence of much younger generation constitutes a grievous assault on public morality, seeking to force morsels of sheer falsehood down the throats of a demography perhaps too young to comprehend events which Obasanjo furiously tried to misrepresent.
It is noteworthy that it was the Obasanjo administration that abolished the teaching of history in Nigerian schools ostensibly to aid this kind of historical revisionism he routinely engages in; a decision now happily reversed by the President Muhammadu Buhari government.

Contestants for the presidential office in Nigeria routinely consult with and court Obasanjo , not because of his electoral value which is minuscule, but out of respect for his status as a former Head of State. It is, however, obvious that the man himself has no respect for that status, as he continuously embroils himself in partisan politics in a most pretentious and dishonest manner and refuses to rise to the demands of statesmanship.

In the statement entitled “My Appeal To All Nigerians Particularly Young Nigerians”, General Obasanjo rtd plumbed into new depth in hubris and hypocrisy never seen in all his career as political busybody after office who seems to see Nigeria as a movie where only he is the all-conquering hero while others are doomed villains. Some psychoanalysts are wont to diagnose this Obasanjo’s peculiar political affliction as post-power-withdrawal-syndrome (PPWS): false omniscience compounded by chronic inability to accept the reality of being out of political office.

Even in the US, whose variant of presidential system of government we practise, former Presidents maintain a decorous distance from government after office, opting wisely not to be a distraction to their successors. Not so the meddlesome Obasanjo.

That same mindset led him to stab MKO Abiola in the back in faraway Harare, Zimbabwe, by saying he was not “a messiah” even when most Nigerians had started viewing the winner of the June 12 polls of 1993 as the symbol of democracy after the annulment. It soon came to light that whereas a group of retired generals including Muhammadu Buhari and Theophilus Danjuma were resolute in their call for the de-annulment through the platform of a “committee of elders”, Obasanjo, the supposed “convener”, was said to have plotted the floating of an “interim government” to replace the now discredited Babangida regime.

While Obasanjo’s right to support any candidate of his choice in the forthcoming presidential polls must be recognized as guaranteed by the Nigerian constitution, how condescending of him to decree his preference on Nigerians based on a cocktail of bare-faced lies and crude revisionism. In fact, there’s a widespread allegation that the latest gambit by the political busybody of Ota is part of a larger nefarious scheme to incite disorder around the country with a view to clearing the grounds for the resurrection of his favourite contraption: interim national government (ING) !

Third term agenda

Contrary to his posturing as a democrat who came to office for the second time at a questionable age 62 and left at 70, Obasanjo’s feverish gamble for life presidency between 2005 and 2006 was actually thwarted by a pro-democracy coalition of progressives like Asiwaju Bola Tinubu and several others.

Bribes ranging from N50m to N100m (amounting to whopping N20bn of public funds) were allegedly handed over to federal lawmakers to approve a clause smuggled into the list of amendments proposed by a “confab” (hurriedly set up by Obasanjo), removing the cap on the two-term limit enshrined by the 1999 constitution. Despite the outrage expressed across the land, Obasanjo had soldiered on through his battalion of political foot soldiers. But on the day the contentious bill was to be decided, the lawmakers voted their conscience and stood firm on the side of Nigerians against Obasanjo’s imperial life presidency ambition.
Is it not therefore ironic that a man unwilling to vacate Aso Rock at 70 (in 2007) is now moralizing against anyone above age 70 aspiring for the same office today? It’s always been known that Obasanjo suffers deep insecurities manifesting in his “Mr. Too Know” antics. But never did anyone imagine that the chicken farmer would carry his accustomed charlatanism as far as arrogating medical expertise to himself as to now also be certifying who is fit or not for the rigor of office through nothing but the estimation of the eyes based on “my own personal experience”.

Obasanjo’s waste versus Buhari’s prudence

While it can be said that prevailing anaemic circumstances of the world economy in 2015 were not quite favorable to the Buhari administration upon takeoff, we make bold to say that, contrary to doomsday scenario painted by Obasanjo, President Muhammadu Buhari has been more prudent in the management of the little the country has earned. How ironic that Buhari that inherited a wrecked economy in 2015 from PDP under the influence of Obasanjo is now being blamed for the hardship suffered by Nigerians, hardship that truly resulted from systemic damage inflicted by PDP’s 16 years of sustained squandermania. Discerning Nigerians surely know better. They can see and feel the relief brought about by Buhari’s rail revolution, massive investment in infrastructure like the second Niger Bridge and numerous roads built or reconstructed across the country. However, despite that oil price averaged $100 per barrel for most of the Obasanjo years and two subsequent PDP administrations, Nigeria has very little or nothing to show for it, other than tales of bare-faced looting and waste for 16 years.

Under Obasanjo’s watch, a senate panel found that national assets — indeed our common patrimony built from independence in 1960 — worth $100bn were auctioned to cronies and fronts at a ridiculous $1.3bn through a dubious privatization programme. This constituted the root of the massive joblessness in the country.

Also, House of Reps committee found that Obasanjo wasted $16bn on the so-called power projects. Rather than electricity, Nigerians experienced worst darkness. According to his deputy then and incidentally the present PDP’s flag bearer, Atiku Abubakar, “In some cases, some contractors were paid 100 percent of the contract sum’’ …without performance !
So pervasive was sleaze under Obasanjo that Atiku, while testifying before another senate committee in 2007, revealed that his boss was fond of “sending handwritten notes to PTDF (Petroleum Trust Development Fund) to release money to buy vehicles for his girlfriends”.

In one last act of moral, political and financial atrocity in 2007, Obasanjo literally commandeered captains of industry and PDP governors to Ota to raise over N7bn for the building of his personal library (memorably dubbed “Presidential Laundromat” by Nobel laureate, Professor Wole Soyinka).
For a man who enrolled in PDP in 1998 with only N20,000 reportedly in his bank account after a stint in prison, Obasanjo left power in 2007 stupendously wealthy with vast farm estates in many states and private university.

False claim of mentorship

Typically, megalomaniac Obasanjo lied that the leading presidential candidates who had visited him addressed him as “mentor” and that, according to him, their respective quest for the No 1 job in the land was to continue where he stopped his “good work”. We presume that included Asiwaju Bola Tinubu. It is another shameless lie by a meddlesome interloper in an orgy of self-adulation.

To start with, many will easily recall that the same Obasanjo had issued a statement shortly after the APC candidate paid him a courtesy call months back categorically stating that the visit was “non-political” in response to “misconception in a section of the media”. So, how come this contradiction now? In any case, keen watchers of political events will attest that Tinubu’s accustomed progressive leaning is antithetical to Obasanjo’s imperial messianism. It is an ideological contestation dating back to 1999.

All through Obasanjo’s eight-year imperial presidency, Tinubu’s fidelity to progressive ideology led him to challenge Obasanjo’s excesses through the instrumentality of the courts and constitutionalism. Indeed, through constant diligent litigations, Lagos under Tinubu was able to win over 13 landmark cases against the federal government at the Supreme Court that not only enriched constitutionalism but also extended the frontiers of federalism in Nigeria.

Tinubu’s opposition also manifested in his refusal to be deceived by Obasanjo’s antics in 2003 in the latter’s desperation to capture the South-west and end his personal shame as a President without political home-base. It is on record that Tinubu emerged the only Yoruba governor who survived Obasanjo’s onslaught against the entire South West. Ever so treacherous, Obasanjo betrayed the other five AD governors by rigging them out of office, with Tinubu becoming “the last man standing”.

His petty hatred for Asiwaju and lack of vision led him into scuttling the first-of-its-kind Independent Power Project (IPP) initiated by Lagos State in 1999. It also explained Obasanjo’s illegal withholding of councils fund belonging to Lagos for over two years following the creation of 37 additional council areas. Even after the Supreme Court ruling directed the release, Obasanjo continued his unconstitutional perfidy of withholding the state’s local government revenue, to punish Lagos. The funds were not released until President Umar Yar’Adua assumed power in 2007.

Indeed, the redrawing of Nigeria’s electioneering calendar is a testament of Obasanjo’s rigging inclination. Today, off-season governorship contests are organised by INEC in states like Edo, Osun, Ekiti, and Kogi due to the theft of popular mandate under Obasanjo’s watch, having declared the 2007 polls a “do or die” for his party. In Edo, Osun and Ekiti in particular, it is a well-known fact that Tinubu spear-headed the struggle to retrieve the stolen mandates through the court. So, how could Obasanjo therefore list Tinubu among his “mentees” who wish to continue where he “stopped”?

He mischievously twisted Tinubu’s ‘Emilokan’ statement before the APC presidential primaries out of context in a futile bid to de-market the APC candidate. The very poor understanding of that phrase by a supposed Yoruba (?) man will only fuel doubts already expressed in some informed quarters about Obasanjo’s roots. Tinubu made his statement within the context of the internal dynamics of APC , and the fact that he later emerged as candidate by an overwhelming majority shows that his claims are infallible. Nobody worked as hard as Tinubu to win the support of delegates during the primaries and today he is second to none in aggressively seeking the support of voters across the country to achieve success in next month’s elections. Ironically, the only concrete reason Obasanjo offers for supporting Peter Obi is that it is “the turn” of the South-East! What a contradiction!!

READ ALSO: https://newsng.ng/reuters-mercenary-journalism-and-nigerian-military/

Capacity to identify and nurture leaders

It is laughable that Obasanjo has the temerity to deem himself qualified to lecture Nigerians on who to elect as a leader. Throughout his political trajectory in public life, he has unfailingly demonstrated gross incompetence in this regard. In 1979, his military regime was designed to produce the weakest leadership in a political terrain that had such proven leadership talents as Adamu Ciroma, Aminu Kano, Maitama Sule, Waziri Ibrahim, Nnamdi Azikwe or Obafemi Awolowo among others. In 2007, after his two-term tenure and the failure of his third term agenda, he influenced the emergence of two PDP successors who failed partly because of weak institutional foundation he had laid and partly because of their own limitations. Obasanjo in a fit of mindless hypocrisy claims that strength and vitality are requirements for the presidency but was the same man who knew of the late good man Umaru Yar a dua’s terminal condition and still used the coercive agencies of state to impose him on Nigeria ! The late president Yar adua himself publicly acknowledged that the 2007 election under Obasanjo was extremely flawed . This is in sharp contrast to Lagos State where the Tinubu administration designed a 25-year development Masterplan for the state and inspired a succession of competent leaders who not only sustained but also improved on the legacies of Tinubu’s administration, making Lagos the fastest growing in Nigeria and the 5th largest economy in Africa today.
In endorsing Obi, Obasanjo resorted to verbose and nebulous generalities without telling Nigerians in concrete terms what were his preferred candidate’s track record of performance as governor in Anambra state.

The shame of Anambra

Perhaps the most laughable of the megalomaniac stunts by Obasanjo was naming Peter Obi among his “mentees”. Older Nigerians and just anyone old enough to comprehend series of abominable occurrences on the political landscape around 2003 must have reacted to such claim with derisive laughter and guffaw. It is perhaps a reflection of Obasanjo’s penchant to prey on the poor memory of the average Nigerian that he now seeks to dress Obi, his one-time victim, as a “mentee”. Given the well-known facts of history, many are left wondering if it was not the same Obi that Obasanjo’s thuggish enforcer, Chris Uba, robbed of Anambra governorship in 2003. It took the refusal of Dr. Chris Ngige to surrender Anambra’s treasury to Obasanjo’s surrogates (Chris Uba and co) for Nigerians to know that the polls were rigged in favour of PDP in Anambra at the expense of APGA’s Peter Obi. While the dirty fight lasted between the electoral robbers in Anambra, the police were implicated in a botched attempt to kidnap the then sitting Anambra governor and force him to resign from office. When that failed, hapless people of Anambra woke up one morning soon afterward to witness a reign of terror unleashed on Awka, the state capital, with Government House and other government structures either razed or vandalized by armed thugs. Fingers were pointed at Chris Uba, the self-styled “godfather of all godfathers”. While the show of shame lasted, it came to light that the Uba was working for Obasanjo. When asked to clarify his relationship with Chris Ubah during a Presidential Chat transmitted live by NTA soon afterwards, Obasanjo shamelessly downplayed the infamy by describing him as an “enthusiastic party (PDP) supporter” in Anambra!

With this brazen attempt at revisionism by this political megalomaniac, discerning Nigerians are unlikely to miss the audacity of willful mendacity. This speaks to Obasanjo’s incorrigible penchant to always twist facts, manufacture lies to launder his dirty undergarment and project himself as Nigeria’s only messiah since independence.

But informed Nigerian voters surely can see through Obasanjo’s chicanery. That is why they will not heed his self-serving call. Rather, come February 25, they will go out in large numbers and vote Asiwaju Bola Tinubu as the only one among the present parade of candidates with the requisite capacity, competence and character to leap Nigeria from a country of potentials to one of greatness.

Obasanjo’s selfish plot to impose a puppet and regain his lost maniacal grip on power shall fail , again…just as his perfidious and pernicious third term agenda !

  • Alake , former commissioner for Information and Strategy Lagos State, is the Adviser Media, Communications and Public Affairs of the APC Presidential Campaign Council.

Lest Nigerian Youths Be Deceived By Obasanjo’s Sanctimony And Revisionism

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VP Shettima’s Invest Lagos Summit: A contest of narratives on both the Dangote and Abdulsamad empires. 

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21 hours ago

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June 12, 2026

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VP Shettima's Invest Lagos Summit: A contest of narratives on both the Dangote and Abdulsamad empires. 

VP Shettima’s Invest Lagos Summit: A contest of narratives on both the Dangote and Abdulsamad empires. 

By: Dr James Bwala

Vice President Kashim Shettima’s recent statement at the Invest Lagos Summit, which sparked significant controversy and backlash from various quarters, particularly regarding his remarks about Africa’s richest men, Aliko Dangote and Abdul Samad Rabiu. The vice president asserted that Lagos, not Kano, produced these business magnates, a comment that many interpreted as dismissive of Kano’s historical commercial significance. However, this reaction stems largely from a misinterpretation of Shettima’s words and an overlooking of the broader context in which his remarks were made. It is crucial to understand and defend the vice president’s statement, recognising the economic dynamics at play and the positive intent behind his message.

Vice President Shettima’s assertion that Lagos produced Africa’s richest men was not intended as an erasure of Kano’s rich commercial heritage or an undervaluing of the northern roots of these business icons. Instead, it was a contextual observation highlighting Lagos as the continent’s economic powerhouse and a pivotal hub where business ideas are scaled and transformed into thriving enterprises. Lagos is Africa’s largest sub-national economy, characterised by its vibrant market activities, infrastructural advantages, business-friendly policies, and an environment conducive to private sector growth. This city has historically served as a furnace where entrepreneurial ambitions find fertile ground to flourish and expand. Shettima’s point was that while the initial entrepreneurial instincts and businesses may have originated elsewhere, including Kano, it is within Lagos that these ventures matured into the colossal economic entities they are today.

READ ALSO: https://newsng.ng/radical-approach-ways-of-ending-the-menace-of-insecurity-in-nigeria/

The backlash, particularly from northern commentators and traditional leaders like Emir Muhammadu Sanusi II of Kano, reflects a common regional sensitivity towards identity and recognition. The Emir’s response centred on Kano’s longstanding reputation as a “centre of commerce”, emphasising the city’s role in shaping fundamental entrepreneurial skills and traditions inherited by figures like Dangote and Rabiu. While this perspective honours Kano’s historic significance, it inadvertently overlooks the nuance in Shettima’s statement—that the vice president did not deny Kano’s foundational influence but instead underscored Lagos’s role in providing a strategic platform for growth and scaling operations. The criticism arises from conflating birthplace or origin with the locus of economic success. Recognising Lagos as the city where these businesses “came to the limelight” is not a negation of their roots but an acknowledgement of pragmatic economic realities.

Shettima’s remarks must be viewed through the lens of economic pragmatism rather than political rivalry or regional contestation. Lagos has been, and remains, Nigeria’s commercial nerve centre and a critical node in Africa’s trade and investment networks. Its infrastructure, regulatory frameworks, access to ports, financial markets, and international connectivity create unique advantages that entrepreneurs can leverage to multiply their wealth and impact. Both Aliko Dangote and Abdul Samad Rabiu have attested to the enabling environment provided by Lagos State governments, which implemented policies fostering private-sector investments surpassing $30 billion. These acknowledgements underscore the integral role Lagos played in their skyrocketing success, validating Shettima’s emphasis on Lagos’s contributions without negating Kano’s entrepreneurial legacy.

READ ALSO: https://newsng.ng/radical-approach-ways-of-ending-the-menace-of-insecurity-in-nigeria/

It is also imperative to contextualise the timing and nature of the criticism directed at the vice president. Notably, some individuals and groups who vociferously objected to Shettima’s Lagos-centric remarks had remained conspicuously silent during other contentious moments, such as when the vice president defended the Dangote Refinery amid an industrial dispute with the Petroleum and Natural Gas Senior Staff Association of Nigeria (PENGASSAN) in late 2025. During that dispute, Shettima described Dangote as an “institution” deserving protection, a stance that drew criticism from labour unions but highlighted his consistent recognition of the vital role played by business leaders in Nigeria’s economic fabric. This selective outrage suggests that the current backlash is less about objective critique and more about entrenched regional loyalties or political manoeuvring as learnt in political communications. 

The misrepresentation of Kashim Shettima’s position reveals a broader challenge in Nigerian public discourse—a tendency to pre-emptively judge and politicise statements without engaging with their substance or intent. The eagerness to attack the vice president before fully understanding the context exemplifies a mindset that undermines balanced evaluation and constructive debate. Instead of appreciating the VP’s highlighting of Lagos as an epicentre of enterprise and resilience, detractors have chosen to ignite divisive sentiments that distract from economic cooperation and national unity. This pattern of reaction fuels unnecessary regional tensions, which ultimately hinder the country’s collective progress.

READ ALSO: https://newsng.ng/radical-approach-ways-of-ending-the-menace-of-insecurity-in-nigeria/

From a professional standpoint, it is essential to champion nuanced communication and responsible leadership. Vice President Shettima’s remarks align with an economic truth that transcends parochial interests: that success in business often requires not just ingenuity and grit but access to supportive environments where ideas can scale. Nurturing such hubs—like Lagos—is vital for Nigeria’s sustained development and global competitiveness. Recognising and celebrating Lagos’s role, therefore, should not be viewed as an affront to other regions but as a call to replicate such enabling conditions nationwide. Every region, including Kano, must strive to provide similar platforms to nurture and propel their homegrown talents and enterprises.

Vice President Kashim Shettima’s comments at the Invest Lagos Summit were a factual, context-driven affirmation of Lagos’s status as Africa’s premier economic hub, where entrepreneurial ventures achieve their full potential. His statement was neither dismissive of Kano’s historic commercial contributions nor an attempt to diminish the foundational roles played by northern business traditions. Instead, it was a candid recognition of Lagos’s unique capacity to nurture and elevate business successes on an unprecedented scale. The vehement backlash—fueled by misinterpretation and regional sensitivities—serves as a reminder of the need for careful listening, thoughtful analysis, and avoidance of partisan attacks in national conversations. As Nigerians, we can foster unity and propel the country towards inclusive prosperity by embracing diverse pathways to success and acknowledging the layered realities of economic growth. Future critiques should engage constructively with leaders’ insights, considering both intent and context before passing judgements. Only through such mature discourse can Nigeria harness its full economic potential and build a harmonious, thriving society.

* James Bwala, PhD, writes from Abuja.

VP Shettima’s Invest Lagos Summit: A contest of narratives on both the Dangote and Abdulsamad empires. 

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Forum condemns abusive language on Atiku

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6 days ago

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June 7, 2026

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Forum condemns abusive language on Atiku

North-East Elders and Youth Forum, Adamawa Chapter has strongly rejected and condemned the abusive language attributed to the former Vice President Atiku Abubakar by the former Secretary to the Government of the Federation (SGF), Mr Babachir Lawal.

Hamza Sa’ad Dasin, the National Leader of the forum stated this during a press briefing in Yola that Lawal accused Atiku Abubakar of manipulating the recent ADC primary election results while describing him as a religious and tribal bigot.

“Well, that’s not the problem, because leaving or staying with the party remains his absolute right; the most alarming and worrisome approach by the former SGF was his utterances against the Former Vice President.

“Accusing him of being religious and tribal bigot, and even went further to calling him KACHALLA, which connotes direct linkage with banditry”, he said.

He said, Atiku Abubakar, socially and politically remains the symbol of unity Nigeria as he married from South West, South-East and North-East “So he is symbolically democratic even in his own house”.

Dasin further said that Atiku has a very large heart that accommodates all irrespective of religious, tribal or sectional inclinations.

“This can be ascertained by looking at the people surrounding him. He is a believer of cultural multiplicity.

“When Boko Haram entered Mubi in Adamawa State, Atiku used his personal resources to bring in hunters and traditional fighters from different parts of northern Nigeria to come and assist.

“And they eventually succeeded in driving them away, killing a large number of them. This is to tell you that Atiku has never, can never and will never be a supporter of banditry, so count him out of being a KACHALLA”, he said.

He further explained that Atiku is a well recognized Political Guru, not only in Nigeria but in the world.

“He is considered one of the best politicians in Africa and the world”, he said.

Forum condemns abusive language on Atiku

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Kashim Shettima: Understanding Farooq Kperogi’s arguments on Tinubu’s 2027 ticket

Published

2 weeks ago

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May 31, 2026

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Vice President Kashim Shettima


Kashim Shettima: Understanding Farooq Kperogi’s arguments on Tinubu’s 2027 ticket

By: Dr. James Bwala

The interplay of identity, symbolism, and electoral coalitions remains a defining feature of political calculations. Prof. Farooq Kperogi’s article, “The Shettima Danger for Tinubu,” brings to the fore a nuanced analysis of the 2023 Tinubu-Shettima political alliance and its implications for the upcoming 2027 elections. At first glance, one might dismiss Kperogi’s arguments as overblown or reductionist, interpreting the situation purely through a lens of personal relationships or conventional political maneuvers. However, a deeper examination reveals that Kperogi’s article is a persuasive and compelling warning about how ignoring the complex dynamics of identity blocs and political symbolism could imperil Tinubu’s ambitions. Kperogi’s insights, therefore, must be taken seriously by political actors, analysts, and stakeholders as they unravel the political future of Nigeria’s ruling party.

Kperogi’s central contentions revolve around what he terms “emotional cartography”—the phenomenon where voting behavior in Nigeria is strongly influenced by identity-based sentimental loyalty to ethnic, regional, and religious affiliations. The Tinubu–Shettima ticket of 2023 is not merely an example of a Muslim-Muslim alliance as popularly debated but rather a strategic partnership representing a powerful Yoruba–Northern Muslim electoral coalition. Tinubu, as a Yoruba political titan, symbolized the southwestern, populous, and politically vibrant Yoruba bloc, while Shettima represented the Northern Muslim electorate, a significant demographic force that has historically influenced election outcomes. This alliance functioned not just on religious credentials but on broader identity representation that allowed different groups to feel politically validated and included in governance.

READ ALSO: https://newsng.ng/2027-when-tinubus-endorsement-of-vice-president-kashim-shettimas-unwavering-support-speaks-volumes/

To understand the stakes, one must appreciate how Nigerian electoral politics operate under this framework. Identity politics, though often criticized for perpetuating division, remains a primary mechanism through which large sections of the population interpret their political interests and participation. For many Nigerians, political representation is not only about policies or ideology but also about whether they see their group’s history, values, and concerns visibly acknowledged and safeguarded. Kperogi emphasizes that emotional cartography generates an implicit contract: when a political ticket includes representatives from major ethnic and religious blocks, it reassures those constituencies that their place in the power structure is secure. Conversely, when this balance shifts or is disrupted, it risks alienating those blocs, triggering voter apathy, backlash, or realignment.

This dynamic makes the prospect of removing Shettima from the 2027 Tinubu ticket particularly perilous. According to Kperogi, Shettima’s presence was foundational to the 2023 electoral success because he symbolically anchored Northern Muslim support. The North is not monolithic, but the Northern Muslim constituency comprises a notable voting bloc that contributed significantly to Tinubu’s victory. Removing Shettima signals more than just a personnel change; it potentially conveys to Northern Muslims that their symbolic representation within the ruling coalition is being diminished or erased. Such a perception, Kperogi warns, would likely fracture existing alliances and result in a loss of critical votes during the next election cycle.

READ ALSO: https://newsng.ng/2027-when-tinubus-endorsement-of-vice-president-kashim-shettimas-unwavering-support-speaks-volumes/

Also, Kperogi critiques the assumption that replacing Shettima with a Northern Christian candidate would simply substitute one identity for another and thus maintain coalition stability. This overlooks key realities about the shifting affiliations and political histories of Northern Christians. Many Northern Christian voters have already gravitated toward alternatives such as Peter Obi, making them a less reliable base for Tinubu’s coalition vis-à-vis Northern Muslims. Hence, swapping Shettima for a Northern Christian does not guarantee a straightforward transfer of votes; instead, it risks weakening the Northern bloc’s overall cohesion in favor of less predictable political outcomes. In Kperogi’s assessment, this maneuver could cause Tinubu to lose more ground than he gains.

Beyond electoral arithmetic, Kperogi’s argument also extends into the broader realm of political sociology and conflict studies within Nigeria. Throughout history, Northern political elites have often leveraged religious identity—particularly Muslim solidarity—to mobilize voters and address perceived marginalization or exclusion in the national power matrix. Displacing Shettima, who embodies this Northern Muslim representation, could rekindle grievances and exacerbate fault lines that have periodically erupted into tension or violence. Thus, the “Shettima danger” not only encapsulates electoral risks but also potential destabilization of Nigeria’s delicate interethnic and interreligious equilibrium.

READ ALSO: https://newsng.ng/2027-when-tinubus-endorsement-of-vice-president-kashim-shettimas-unwavering-support-speaks-volumes/

Critically, Kperogi’s analysis does not endorse or glorify identity politics; rather, it pragmatically acknowledges it as an existing reality that shapes Nigerian political behavior. His contribution lies in highlighting that political actors who ignore these identity perceptions do so at their own peril. The idea that electoral success can be achieved solely through policy platforms or technocratic governance is, in Nigeria’s context, incomplete without considering the symbolism of inclusion and representation among diverse communities. Tinubu’s political fortunes, therefore, hinge upon maintaining a coalition that respects and reflects the ethnic and religious mosaic of Nigeria’s electorate.

Opponents of Kperogi’s view might argue that emphasizing identity risks perpetuating sectarianism and undermining efforts toward national integration. They may advocate for transcendence beyond primordial affiliations toward programmatic politics focusing on issues like economic development, security, and social justice. While such aspirations are noble and necessary for Nigeria’s long-term progress, the immediate political reality remains that identity-based emotional loyalty strongly influences voter behavior and political legitimacy. Dismissing this factor risks alienating vital constituencies and undermining political stability—a cost that Nigerian leaders cannot afford in the volatile current climate.

READ ALSO https://newsng.ng/2027-when-tinubus-endorsement-of-vice-president-kashim-shettimas-unwavering-support-speaks-volumes/

Indeed, Kperogi’s concept of emotional cartography offers a useful analytic framework to bridge the divide between identity politics critics and proponents. It encourages recognizing identity as a sociopolitical phenomenon shaped by history, culture, and lived experience rather than a mere obstacle to democracy. Through this lens, politicians like Tinubu must navigate identity sensibilities skillfully, balancing inclusivity and national unity without erasing distinct group identities. The Shettima matter exemplifies this challenge: it requires sensitivity to how symbolic representation operates alongside substantive governance to sustain broad-based political coalitions.

The assessment of the “Shettima danger” for Tinubu’s 2027 ticket should be regarded as a persuasive cautionary tale grounded in Nigeria’s political realities. Far from an academic abstraction, his insights illuminate why removing Shettima risks fracturing a crucial electoral coalition based on Yoruba and Northern Muslim alliances, thereby jeopardizing Tinubu’s political prospects. More importantly, it underscores how identity, symbolism, and emotional cartography continue to shape Nigerian politics in profound ways. For Tinubu and his party, success depends not only on policy effectiveness but also on adeptly managing the complex mosaic of representation and inclusion that defines Nigeria’s democratic landscape. To ignore Kperogi’s warnings is to court a political miscalculation with potentially far-reaching consequences for Nigeria’s fragile unity and democratic stability.

* James Bwala, PhD, writes from Abuja.

Kashim Shettima: Understanding Farooq Kperogi’s arguments on Tinubu’s 2027 ticket

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