Yobe 2027: Consensus, G-Six, and the Crucible of Direct Primaries

By: Dr. James Bwala

The political landscape in Yobe State is presently a microcosm of the broader democratic challenges Nigeria faces. As the All Progressives Congress (APC) prepares for its gubernatorial primaries slated for May 23, 2027, tensions and divisions within the party have laid bare the complexities of internal party democracy. Central to this unfolding drama is the interplay between the principle of consensus, the influential G-six faction, and the imminent test of direct primaries. The recent intervention of Vice President Senator Kashim Shettima, which culminated in Alhaji Lawan Kolo Geidam stepping down for the party’s anointed candidate Alhaji Baba Malam Wali, marked a pivotal moment. Yet, beneath this surface reconciliation lies a fraught path that could significantly influence not only the immediate future of Yobe politics but also the democratic ethos of the APC as a whole.

At the heart of the Yobe episode is the practice of consensus candidates, a mechanism often employed by Nigerian political parties to present united fronts during elections. Proponents argue that consensus preempts protracted primary battles, preserves party unity, and channels resources toward winning general elections. In Yobe, Mala Buni’s endorsement of Baba Malam Wali as the consensus candidate was intended to consolidate the APC’s strength and sideline factional rifts. However, the arrival of the G-six, a formidable bloc that includes stalwarts such as Alhaji Lawan Kolo Geidam and is backed by other significant figures like Senator Muhammed Bomai, Hon. Bashir Sheriff Machina, former IGP Usman Alkali Baba, and business mogul Kashim Musa Tumsa, contested this top-down approach. Their resistance underscored a growing restiveness against predetermined candidacies perceived as exclusionary or undemocratic.

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This tension spotlights a crucial debate in Nigerian party politics: does consensus undermine or enhance democracy? Critics of consensus argue that it often amounts to imposed candidacies, which stifle intra-party competition and disenfranchise grassroots members who seek genuine participation through voting. This critique holds substantive weight, especially in a polity where internal democracy remains nascent, and many party decisions are heavily influenced by kingmakers or political godfathers rather than transparent processes. On the other hand, given Nigeria’s often fractious and ethnically charged political environment, consensus is sometimes defended as a pragmatic tool for avoiding bitter contests that can fracture party cohesiveness and harm electoral chances.

In Yobe’s context, the G-six’s initial refusal to accept the consensus candidate, culminating in the last-minute withdrawal of Lawan Kolo Geidam after Vice President Shettima’s peace intervention, embodies the high stakes and emotional entanglements involved. The VP’s role in mediating the dispute was critical; his call for peace and collective support symbolized the necessity of compromise in the intricate dance of Nigerian politics. It also affirmed the reality that behind factional disagreements lie broader strategic interests, including the desire to present a united front against opposition parties in the general elections. Nonetheless, this peace is uneasy and fragile, as evidenced by lingering frustrations from supporters of other aspirants like Engr. Mustapha Yunusa Maihaja, IGP Usman Alkali Baba (RTD), Senator Muhammed Bomai, Hon. Machina, and Kashim Musa Tulsa, whose exclusion from the anointed consensus stirs sentiments of betrayal.

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The impending direct primaries scheduled for May 23 now stand as a critical litmus test for the APC in Yobe. Unlike consensus, direct primaries offer an avenue for party members at all levels to exercise their franchise openly, potentially reinvigorating democratic norms within the party. If conducted transparently and fairly, the primaries could serve as an opportunity to heal divisions by granting legitimacy to the selected candidate, whether it remains the consensus choice or surfaces from the ranks of contesting aspirants. Moreover, it aligns with democratic ideals where leaders emerge through participatory mechanisms rather than prearranged accords. Such a process could also recalibrate power dynamics within the APC, empowering grassroots actors and ensuring accountability.

However, the primaries could equally exacerbate existing fissures if marred by manipulation or violence, thus deepening mistrust among competing camps. The risk of rancor and post-primary agitations is significant given the emotional investment of various supporter groups. For Governor Mai Mala Buni, whose political capital and future influence in Yobe heavily depend on the outcome and spirit of the primaries, this is a defining moment. Should the process be seen as credible and inclusive, it will enhance his standing as a unifying figure championing democratic values. Conversely, perceptions of imposition or electoral malpractice could erode his legitimacy and weaken his leadership not just within Yobe, but more broadly within the APC’s national framework.

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Beyond the immediate political calculus, the Yobe experience offers instructive lessons for Nigerian democracy. The oscillation between consensus and direct primaries reflects tensions inherent in balancing party unity with democratic participation. While consensus may sometimes be expedient, it should not become a veil for autocratic decision-making that disenfranchises party members. Conversely, direct primaries, while aspirationally democratic, demand rigorous safeguards against abuse to fulfill their promise. The integrity of these processes and the willingness of party leaders to embrace transparency ultimately determine whether democracy is deepened or diluted.

To navigate these challenges effectively, the APC and other parties must institutionalize internal democracy by codifying transparent rules that govern consensus arrangements and primary elections. Political stakeholders, including influential figures like Governor Buni, bear responsibility to model democratic conduct, promote inclusion, and respect dissenting voices. Additionally, civil society and electoral bodies should engage actively to monitor primaries and advocate for fairness, reinforcing public confidence in party processes.

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The saga of ‘Yobe 2027’ encapsulates a critical juncture for the APC and Nigerian politics at large. The convergence of consensus candidacy, the assertive G-six faction, and the pending direct primaries embodies the perennial struggle between entrenched political practices and the aspiration for genuine democracy. While the recent peace brokered by the vice president is commendable, it is the conduct and outcome of the May 3 primaries that will truly test the party’s commitment to democratic ideals. 

The choices made in Yobe will resonate beyond state borders, shaping narratives around political inclusivity, leadership legitimacy, and democratic consolidation in Nigeria’s evolving political landscape. For democracy to flourish, political actors must transcend narrow interests, embrace transparency, and commit to the principle that leadership derives from the will of the many, not the dictates of the few. Only then can Yobe’s political future—and indeed Nigeria’s—be assured of progress, stability, and genuine representation.

* James Bwala, PhD, writes from Abuja

Yobe 2027: Consensus, G-Six, and the Crucible of Direct Primaries

2027: The Dynamics of Consensus Candidates and the Crisis of Succession in Nigeria’s Democratic Party Politics

By: Dr. James Bwala

The issue of successorship appointment within party ranks in contemporary Nigerian democracy has generated considerable debate among political stakeholders and members alike. Central to this discourse is the widespread practice of imposing consensus candidates—a phenomenon that ostensibly aims to project unity and avoid intra-party conflicts but, paradoxically, erodes the democratic foundation of political parties. Indeed, the consensus candidate approach, rather than fostering internal party democracy, serves as a malignant force undermining transparent political processes, suppressing genuine competition, and jeopardizing the future of Nigeria’s democratic governance. To preserve and deepen democracy in Nigeria, political parties must reject consensus impositions and recommit to authentic primaries that allow merit and popular choice to prevail.

At the heart of a healthy democratic system lies the principle of open and competitive elections, extending into the primaries that select party candidates. Primaries provide an institutionalized mechanism for party members to exercise their political rights by choosing leaders who best represent their values and aspirations. The competitive nature of primaries encourages accountability, policy debate, and grassroots mobilization—all indispensable elements in a vibrant democracy. However, in Nigeria, this crucial democratic practice is frequently circumvented through consensus candidacies, where powerful figures—often incumbent governors or party elites—dictate the choice of successors without proper consultation or vote by party members.

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This practice of imposing consensus candidates is deeply flawed for several reasons. Firstly, it fundamentally undermines intra-party democracy. When a candidate is chosen through a top-down arrangement rather than a transparent contest, members feel disenfranchised and disillusioned. The sense of ownership and participation that fuels political engagement dissipates, leading to decreased activism and voter apathy. Secondly, consensus candidates often emerge not on the basis of merit or popular appeal but due to patronage networks, financial inducements, and political bargaining aimed at preserving the status quo. This environment breeds mediocrity and stifles innovation within party structures, as leadership positions become rewards for loyalty rather than platforms for effective governance.

The entrenchment of consensus candidacies has pernicious effects beyond party dynamics. It aggravates corruption and rent-seeking behavior by creating a protected class of politicians who owe their allegiance primarily to power brokers rather than constituents. The “cancer” analogy aptly captures this phenomenon: consensus candidacies are symptomatic of deeper systemic malaise where democratic norms rot under the influence of greed and manipulation. Governors and influential party leaders who push through consensus arrangements often do so to shield themselves from accountability, blocking probes and critical scrutiny. By controlling their succession, they ensure continuity in corrupt practices and minimize threats to their entrenched interests.

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It is crucial to recognize that while consensus candidacies may appear expedient in the short term by avoiding visible factional disputes, their long-term consequences are detrimental. The absence of genuine electoral competition breeds political instability, as aggrieved aspirants and marginalized factions may resort to extra-legal means to assert their claims, including defections, violent confrontations, or undermining party cohesion during general elections. Furthermore, the public’s perception of political parties as undemocratic and self-serving institutions diminishes trust in the electoral process and discourages citizen participation.

A healthy democracy demands that political parties reflect the will and choice of the people, beginning with their internal selection processes. Nigeria’s democracy cannot thrive if party leaderships continue to manipulate succession to serve narrow interests. Instead, parties should strive to institutionalize transparent, inclusive, and credible primaries where aspirants compete on a level playing field. This would entail establishing independent and impartial electoral committees within parties, enforcing strict adherence to democratic rules, and ensuring that party members have unfettered access to information and the opportunity to scrutinize candidates’ credentials.

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The role of external actors, such as the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), civil society organizations, and the media, is equally vital. These stakeholders must intensify efforts to promote internal party democracy, monitor primary elections vigilantly, and expose irregularities when they occur. Legal frameworks governing party primaries should be strengthened to discourage autocratic tendencies and illicit practices, with clear sanctions for violations. Above all, political leaders must embrace the spirit of democracy by prioritizing national interest over personal or sectional gains.

The pervasive practice of appointing consensus candidates within political parties poses one of the most significant threats to the consolidation of democracy in Nigeria. While consensus might superficially symbolize harmony, it has largely become a covert mechanism that perpetuates exclusion, weakens democratic institutions, and entrenches corruption. 

READ ALSO: https://newsng.ng/shettimas-relentless-engagement-should-remind-nigerians-that-their-government-is-not-an-opaque-monolith-but-a-responsive-entity-committed-to-their-welfare/

To prevent Nigeria’s democracy from succumbing to this cancerous condition, political parties must return to the drawing board and recommit to genuine democratic processes grounded in free, fair, and competitive primaries. Only through such reforms can Nigeria build a resilient democracy where leadership succession reflects the collective will, nurtures accountability, and fosters good governance for the nation’s progress. Consensus candidates should never be the child of necessity. 

* James Bwala, PhD, is a political commentator and writes from Abuja.

2027: The Dynamics of Consensus Candidates and the Crisis of Succession in Nigeria’s Democratic Party Politics

Shettima’s relentless engagement should remind Nigerians that their government is not an opaque monolith but a responsive entity committed to their welfare.

By: Dr. James Bwala

Recently, I was reading some comments about Vice President Kashim Shettima’s travels. While some of these comments are encouraging, others seem to have distanced themselves from the reality of what it means to be in a leadership position. Nigeria, with its over 200 million inhabitants spread across 36 states and a Federal Capital Territory, presents a multifaceted challenge to governance. The country’s ethnic, religious, and cultural diversity, combined with economic disparities and security concerns, necessitates a leadership approach that is both hands-on and deeply empathetic. Vice President Shettima’s extensive travels allow him to engage directly with various communities, understand their unique challenges, and foster a sense of inclusion and representation within the federal framework. This ground-level interaction cultivates trust between the government and its citizens, diminishing alienation and enhancing the legitimacy of governance structures.

Shettima’s tireless journey across Nigeria, traversing its vast length and breadth, stands as a compelling testament to the government’s unwavering commitment to forging a better future for all Nigerians. In an era where leadership is often critiqued for detachment and inefficiency, Shettima’s relentless engagement exemplifies the vital qualities of dedication, resilience, and visionary stewardship that a leader must embody to achieve meaningful progress. His continuous efforts are not merely symbolic gestures but tangible acts that reflect the innermost drive required to steer a diverse and complex nation toward unity, development, and prosperity.

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The vice president’s visible presence across the country sends a powerful message about the government’s priorities. It signals that no region or group is overlooked; rather, there is a concerted effort to bridge gaps, address grievances, and promote equitable development. This approach contrasts sharply with a detached bureaucracy where policies might be formulated in isolation without adequate appreciation of local realities. By crisscrossing Nigeria, the vice president gathers firsthand insights that inform policy formulation, ensuring that interventions are contextually relevant and more likely to succeed. This dynamic feedback loop between leadership and the populace is critical in a democracy striving for responsiveness and accountability.

The personal toll on Vice President Shettima cannot be overstated. His demanding schedule, often described as exhausting, underscores the sacrifices inherent in leadership at the highest level. Yet, it is precisely this embodiment of relentless commitment that galvanizes governmental momentum and inspires confidence among Nigerians. Leadership, especially in a country as complex as Nigeria, demands an inner reservoir of strength—an indomitable spirit that persists amid fatigue, setbacks, and criticism. Shettima’s ability to continually summon this inner strength reflects his recognition that leadership is not a static position but an active, evolving process requiring constant energy, adaptability, and perseverance.

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Shettima’s style also offers a profound lesson on the interplay between visibility and effectiveness. Too often, political leaders are perceived as distant figures whose decisions emerge from abstract corridors of power. But in contrast, Shettima’s approach breaks down these barriers, positioning the vice presidency as a proactive institution directly engaged with the citizenry. This hands-on leadership fosters a culture of transparency and humility, where listening becomes as important as directing. It reassures Nigerians that their government is not an opaque monolith but a responsive entity committed to their welfare.

In the broader context of Nigeria’s developmental trajectory, the vice president’s efforts align with national ambitions to enhance social cohesion, economic diversification, and infrastructural growth. The government’s push to create jobs, improve healthcare, reform education, and enhance security requires not only robust policies but also vigorous implementation supported by continuous dialogue with stakeholders at every level. Vice President Shettima’s extensive travels enable him to champion these initiatives directly, mobilizing local resources, encouraging public-private partnerships, and advocating for reforms that resonate with community needs and aspirations.

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On a closer look, Shettima’s leadership embodies the essence of servant leadership—a philosophy where leaders prioritize the needs of their people above personal gain or political expediency. His visible exhaustion is not a sign of weakness but an expression of his willingness to share in the struggles of ordinary Nigerians. This empathetic connection builds social capital and reinforces the moral authority necessary for sustainable governance. As Nigeria grapples with issues such as poverty, insecurity, and infrastructural deficits, leadership that demonstrates genuine care and dedication can serve as a unifying force capable of transcending divisive politics and fostering national reconciliation.

Critics might argue that frequent travel and public engagements risk superficiality, suggesting that real change is achieved through policy details and systemic reforms rather than charismatic presence. While policy substance is undeniably critical, the importance of leadership presence should not be underestimated, especially in a federal system where trust and cooperation among diverse regions are indispensable. Vice President Shettima’s approach does not replace rigorous policy work; rather, it complements it by ensuring that policies are grounded in lived experiences and receive the support necessary for effective implementation.

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The rigorous schedule adopted by the vice president sets a benchmark for other leaders in the country, encouraging a culture of diligence and accountability within the government. It raises expectations around active leadership and discourages complacency. When the nation’s second-in-command is seen investing considerable personal effort into understanding and addressing grassroots issues, it elevates the standards for public service and nurtures a political environment oriented toward active problem-solving rather than mere rhetoric.

Some critical-minded Nigerians need to see that Shettima’s continuous crisscrossing of Nigeria is emblematic of a government genuinely invested in building a better nation. His physical journey across diverse terrains mirrors a deeper journey of commitment, resilience, and visionary leadership essential for navigating Nigeria’s complexities. Despite the evident exhaustion, his indefatigable spirit personifies the qualities required to lead effectively in challenging circumstances. Through direct engagement, empathetic governance, and steadfast dedication, Shettima contributes significantly to fostering national unity, promoting inclusive development, and inspiring confidence in Nigeria’s future. His example is a clarion call for leadership that is not only seen and heard but felt profoundly across every corner of the nation, driving collective progress for the greater good.

* James Bwala, PhD, writes from Abuja.

Shettima’s relentless engagement should remind Nigerians that their government is not an opaque monolith but a responsive entity committed to their welfare.