Politics
Nigeria: Buhari’s death has thrown the ADC Coalition into chaos, as plans to ride the former president’s political fortunes against Tinubu and Shettima in 2027 collapsed.
Nigeria: Politics: Buhari’s death has thrown the ADC Coalition into chaos, as plans to ride the former president’s political fortunes against Tinubu and Shettima in 2027 collapsed.
By: Dr. James Bwala
The death of former President Muhammadu Buhari has significantly disrupted the African Democratic Congress (ADC) coalition’s strategy ahead of Nigeria’s 2027 elections. The ADC had planned to leverage Buhari’s political legacy to challenge the ruling party, particularly targeting Bola Tinubu and Kashim Shettima. However, with Buhari’s passing, the coalition faces internal disarray as their anticipated advantage dissipates, complicating efforts to unify opposition forces and capitalize on northern political sentiments.
The ADC has openly criticized President Tinubu’s administration for exploiting Buhari’s death to improve its own public image. The party accuses the government of orchestrating a “political theater” through federal tributes designed as calculated PR stunts, aiming to garner sympathy among Buhari loyalists and consolidate support in the north. This appropriation undermines opposition narratives that sought to use Buhari’s legacy as a counterweight against Tinubu and Shettima.

Buhari’s death has not only unsettled opposition coalitions like the ADC but also enabled the ruling government to manipulate public sentiment strategically. The evolving political landscape demands new approaches from opposition groups if they are to remain competitive in the forthcoming elections.
As the political scene shifts, the ADC and other opposition parties must reevaluate their strategies to effectively counter the ruling party’s growing influence and maintain relevance in Nigerian politics.
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The ADC and its allies must now craft a narrative that resonates with the electorate, focusing on policy-driven agendas rather than relying solely on Buhari’s legacy to galvanize support. In this context, the ADC and its coalition partners are urged to adopt innovative campaigning strategies that prioritize tangible policy proposals addressing economic development, security, and social welfare to effectively engage a diverse voter base across Nigeria.

The ADC coalition must build robust alliances with civil society organizations and grassroots movements to amplify their reach and effectively challenge the entrenched political structures that favor the incumbents. The ADC’s ability to articulate a clear vision for Nigeria’s future while addressing the electorate’s immediate concerns will be crucial in countering the ruling party’s narrative and regaining political ground.
To achieve this, they must also navigate the complex political dynamics that have emerged in the wake of Buhari’s death. With Buhari no longer a unifying figure, the ADC and its allies face the daunting task of redefining their identity and political message to resonate with a broader audience. However, to successfully reposition themselves, the coalition must also address internal discord and unify their ranks to present a cohesive front that can withstand both political and public scrutiny. Moreover, the coalition’s efforts must be strategically aligned to counter any attempts by the ruling party to exploit Buhari’s legacy for political gain since they claimed the ruling party is already gaining from Buhari’s death.

A peep into recent developments within the African Democratic Congress (ADC) coalition has revealed emerging sentiments of regret among some members regarding the defection of key figures from the All Progressives Congress (APC) ahead of the 2027 elections. These “feelers” suggest that certain individuals who left the APC, particularly associates of former President Buhari, may be reconsidering their decisions due to unforeseen political challenges and instability within their new alignments. The dynamics underscore the complexities inherent in Nigeria’s evolving political landscape, where shifting allegiances often reflect strategic calculations as much as ideological commitments.
While official sources and detailed analyses remain scarce, such internal reflections within the ADC coalition highlight potential fractures that could influence electoral outcomes and party cohesion. This situation aligns with broader observations about Nigeria’s opposition coalitions struggling to present a unified front against dominant parties. Understanding these regrets provides critical insight into how political realignments might affect both intra-party stability and national electoral strategies moving forward.
This introspection may also indicate a broader dissatisfaction with the current trajectory of the ADC, as it struggles to accommodate diverse political interests and ambitions within its ranks. Moreover, the decision to defect appears increasingly precarious as the ADC grapples with internal divisions and questions about its capacity to serve as a viable opposition platform. As the political landscape continues to shift, these internal tensions could lead to a reevaluation of strategic alliances and prompt key figures to reconsider their roles within the ADC. This growing sense of uncertainty may compel some members to seek reconciliation with the APC or explore alternative political alliances that promise greater stability and influence.
While this political storms raged, the activities of both President Bola Ahmed Tinubu and his Vice President, Distinguished Senator Kashim Shettima during the recent burial ceremony has been critically analyzed by a renowned political analyst who posited that the event underscored the formidable alliance between Bola Tinubu and Kashim Shettima.

This observation highlights how the ceremony served not merely as a cultural or religious rite but also as a potent political statement. By showcasing unity and solidarity, the event effectively dismantled attempts by detractors to sow discord between these two influential figures. The analyst’s perspective suggests that such public displays of cohesion reinforce their combined political capital, which is essential in navigating Nigeria’s complex political landscape.
The burial ceremony functioned as a symbolic platform where communal respect and shared values were emphasized, reflecting positively on Tinubu and Shettima’s partnership. The orchestrated unity at this solemn occasion counteracted divisive narratives propagated by opposition forces aiming to weaken their collaboration. Thus, the analyst’s insight reveals how socio-political events can transcend their immediate contexts to influence broader power dynamics, reinforcing alliances crucial for effective governance and political stability.
* James Bwala, PhD, writes from Abuja.
Nigeria: Buhari’s death has thrown the ADC Coalition into chaos, as plans to ride the former president’s political fortunes against Tinubu and Shettima in 2027 collapsed.
Politics
Forum condemns abusive language on Atiku
Forum condemns abusive language on Atiku
North-East Elders and Youth Forum, Adamawa Chapter has strongly rejected and condemned the abusive language attributed to the former Vice President Atiku Abubakar by the former Secretary to the Government of the Federation (SGF), Mr Babachir Lawal.
Hamza Sa’ad Dasin, the National Leader of the forum stated this during a press briefing in Yola that Lawal accused Atiku Abubakar of manipulating the recent ADC primary election results while describing him as a religious and tribal bigot.
“Well, that’s not the problem, because leaving or staying with the party remains his absolute right; the most alarming and worrisome approach by the former SGF was his utterances against the Former Vice President.
“Accusing him of being religious and tribal bigot, and even went further to calling him KACHALLA, which connotes direct linkage with banditry”, he said.
He said, Atiku Abubakar, socially and politically remains the symbol of unity Nigeria as he married from South West, South-East and North-East “So he is symbolically democratic even in his own house”.
Dasin further said that Atiku has a very large heart that accommodates all irrespective of religious, tribal or sectional inclinations.
“This can be ascertained by looking at the people surrounding him. He is a believer of cultural multiplicity.
“When Boko Haram entered Mubi in Adamawa State, Atiku used his personal resources to bring in hunters and traditional fighters from different parts of northern Nigeria to come and assist.
“And they eventually succeeded in driving them away, killing a large number of them. This is to tell you that Atiku has never, can never and will never be a supporter of banditry, so count him out of being a KACHALLA”, he said.
He further explained that Atiku is a well recognized Political Guru, not only in Nigeria but in the world.
“He is considered one of the best politicians in Africa and the world”, he said.
Forum condemns abusive language on Atiku
Politics
Kashim Shettima: Understanding Farooq Kperogi’s arguments on Tinubu’s 2027 ticket
Kashim Shettima: Understanding Farooq Kperogi’s arguments on Tinubu’s 2027 ticket
By: Dr. James Bwala
The interplay of identity, symbolism, and electoral coalitions remains a defining feature of political calculations. Prof. Farooq Kperogi’s article, “The Shettima Danger for Tinubu,” brings to the fore a nuanced analysis of the 2023 Tinubu-Shettima political alliance and its implications for the upcoming 2027 elections. At first glance, one might dismiss Kperogi’s arguments as overblown or reductionist, interpreting the situation purely through a lens of personal relationships or conventional political maneuvers. However, a deeper examination reveals that Kperogi’s article is a persuasive and compelling warning about how ignoring the complex dynamics of identity blocs and political symbolism could imperil Tinubu’s ambitions. Kperogi’s insights, therefore, must be taken seriously by political actors, analysts, and stakeholders as they unravel the political future of Nigeria’s ruling party.
Kperogi’s central contentions revolve around what he terms “emotional cartography”—the phenomenon where voting behavior in Nigeria is strongly influenced by identity-based sentimental loyalty to ethnic, regional, and religious affiliations. The Tinubu–Shettima ticket of 2023 is not merely an example of a Muslim-Muslim alliance as popularly debated but rather a strategic partnership representing a powerful Yoruba–Northern Muslim electoral coalition. Tinubu, as a Yoruba political titan, symbolized the southwestern, populous, and politically vibrant Yoruba bloc, while Shettima represented the Northern Muslim electorate, a significant demographic force that has historically influenced election outcomes. This alliance functioned not just on religious credentials but on broader identity representation that allowed different groups to feel politically validated and included in governance.
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To understand the stakes, one must appreciate how Nigerian electoral politics operate under this framework. Identity politics, though often criticized for perpetuating division, remains a primary mechanism through which large sections of the population interpret their political interests and participation. For many Nigerians, political representation is not only about policies or ideology but also about whether they see their group’s history, values, and concerns visibly acknowledged and safeguarded. Kperogi emphasizes that emotional cartography generates an implicit contract: when a political ticket includes representatives from major ethnic and religious blocks, it reassures those constituencies that their place in the power structure is secure. Conversely, when this balance shifts or is disrupted, it risks alienating those blocs, triggering voter apathy, backlash, or realignment.
This dynamic makes the prospect of removing Shettima from the 2027 Tinubu ticket particularly perilous. According to Kperogi, Shettima’s presence was foundational to the 2023 electoral success because he symbolically anchored Northern Muslim support. The North is not monolithic, but the Northern Muslim constituency comprises a notable voting bloc that contributed significantly to Tinubu’s victory. Removing Shettima signals more than just a personnel change; it potentially conveys to Northern Muslims that their symbolic representation within the ruling coalition is being diminished or erased. Such a perception, Kperogi warns, would likely fracture existing alliances and result in a loss of critical votes during the next election cycle.
READ ALSO: https://newsng.ng/2027-when-tinubus-endorsement-of-vice-president-kashim-shettimas-unwavering-support-speaks-volumes/
Also, Kperogi critiques the assumption that replacing Shettima with a Northern Christian candidate would simply substitute one identity for another and thus maintain coalition stability. This overlooks key realities about the shifting affiliations and political histories of Northern Christians. Many Northern Christian voters have already gravitated toward alternatives such as Peter Obi, making them a less reliable base for Tinubu’s coalition vis-à-vis Northern Muslims. Hence, swapping Shettima for a Northern Christian does not guarantee a straightforward transfer of votes; instead, it risks weakening the Northern bloc’s overall cohesion in favor of less predictable political outcomes. In Kperogi’s assessment, this maneuver could cause Tinubu to lose more ground than he gains.
Beyond electoral arithmetic, Kperogi’s argument also extends into the broader realm of political sociology and conflict studies within Nigeria. Throughout history, Northern political elites have often leveraged religious identity—particularly Muslim solidarity—to mobilize voters and address perceived marginalization or exclusion in the national power matrix. Displacing Shettima, who embodies this Northern Muslim representation, could rekindle grievances and exacerbate fault lines that have periodically erupted into tension or violence. Thus, the “Shettima danger” not only encapsulates electoral risks but also potential destabilization of Nigeria’s delicate interethnic and interreligious equilibrium.
READ ALSO: https://newsng.ng/2027-when-tinubus-endorsement-of-vice-president-kashim-shettimas-unwavering-support-speaks-volumes/
Critically, Kperogi’s analysis does not endorse or glorify identity politics; rather, it pragmatically acknowledges it as an existing reality that shapes Nigerian political behavior. His contribution lies in highlighting that political actors who ignore these identity perceptions do so at their own peril. The idea that electoral success can be achieved solely through policy platforms or technocratic governance is, in Nigeria’s context, incomplete without considering the symbolism of inclusion and representation among diverse communities. Tinubu’s political fortunes, therefore, hinge upon maintaining a coalition that respects and reflects the ethnic and religious mosaic of Nigeria’s electorate.
Opponents of Kperogi’s view might argue that emphasizing identity risks perpetuating sectarianism and undermining efforts toward national integration. They may advocate for transcendence beyond primordial affiliations toward programmatic politics focusing on issues like economic development, security, and social justice. While such aspirations are noble and necessary for Nigeria’s long-term progress, the immediate political reality remains that identity-based emotional loyalty strongly influences voter behavior and political legitimacy. Dismissing this factor risks alienating vital constituencies and undermining political stability—a cost that Nigerian leaders cannot afford in the volatile current climate.
READ ALSO https://newsng.ng/2027-when-tinubus-endorsement-of-vice-president-kashim-shettimas-unwavering-support-speaks-volumes/
Indeed, Kperogi’s concept of emotional cartography offers a useful analytic framework to bridge the divide between identity politics critics and proponents. It encourages recognizing identity as a sociopolitical phenomenon shaped by history, culture, and lived experience rather than a mere obstacle to democracy. Through this lens, politicians like Tinubu must navigate identity sensibilities skillfully, balancing inclusivity and national unity without erasing distinct group identities. The Shettima matter exemplifies this challenge: it requires sensitivity to how symbolic representation operates alongside substantive governance to sustain broad-based political coalitions.
The assessment of the “Shettima danger” for Tinubu’s 2027 ticket should be regarded as a persuasive cautionary tale grounded in Nigeria’s political realities. Far from an academic abstraction, his insights illuminate why removing Shettima risks fracturing a crucial electoral coalition based on Yoruba and Northern Muslim alliances, thereby jeopardizing Tinubu’s political prospects. More importantly, it underscores how identity, symbolism, and emotional cartography continue to shape Nigerian politics in profound ways. For Tinubu and his party, success depends not only on policy effectiveness but also on adeptly managing the complex mosaic of representation and inclusion that defines Nigeria’s democratic landscape. To ignore Kperogi’s warnings is to court a political miscalculation with potentially far-reaching consequences for Nigeria’s fragile unity and democratic stability.
* James Bwala, PhD, writes from Abuja.
Kashim Shettima: Understanding Farooq Kperogi’s arguments on Tinubu’s 2027 ticket
Politics
APC Bauchi: Counting the Losses
APC Bauchi: Counting the Losses
By: Michael Olukayode
The All Progressives Congress (APC) in Bauchi State is gradually entering one of the most critical moments in its political history. What should have been a period of consolidation, unity, and strategic preparation has instead turned into growing confusion, internal resentment, massive defections, and the dangerous creation of unnecessary political enemies within the party.
Sadly, many loyal supporters believe this crisis was avoidable.
The root of the problem lies in the failure of the party to manage its internal affairs with fairness, openness, and genuine consultation. What many party members expected to be a transparent political process instead appeared to become a carefully controlled arrangement driven by personal interests and future political calculations.

Today, APC Bauchi is paying the price.
Unfortunately, many loyal supporters do not believe that M.A. Abubakar currently possesses the political strength, energy, or widespread acceptance needed to successfully confront the opposition in the present political climate. Rather than generating excitement and renewed confidence within the party, his emergence has instead deepened internal divisions, increased frustration among supporters, and accelerated defections across different political structures.
The political sidelining of some prominent aspirants such as Amb. Yusuf Maitama Tuggar remains one of the most painful developments for many supporters across the state. To thousands of APC loyalists, Tuggar represented not just another aspirant, but a modern political force capable of rebuilding confidence in the party and attracting broader public support.
He brought national visibility, diplomatic experience, youth appeal, intellectual strength, and growing grassroots acceptance. More importantly, he represented hope for a new generation of APC politics in Bauchi State.0

Unfortunately, many supporters now feel that merit, popularity, and acceptability were sacrificed for personal political arrangements.
What makes the situation even more dangerous is the perception that the entire strategy was designed around short-term interests rather than the long-term survival of the party. Many believe the arrangement was structured to return a former governor for a single remaining term while preparing the ground for another political ambition afterward.
This perception has become very obvious that the political damages caused is undeniable.
Today, APC Bauchi is no longer only losing members but it is creating more enemies.
And in politics, there is a major difference between losing supporters and creating opponents motivated by disappointment, anger, and exclusion.
Across the state:
- Influential stakeholders are defecting.
- Grassroots coordinators are withdrawing their loyalty.
- Youth supporters are becoming frustrated.
- Local party structures are weakening.
- Silent resentment is spreading across many political camps.
Some of the individuals leaving the party are not ordinary members. They are people with political structures, loyal followership, electoral value, and influence within their communities. Every defection weakens the confidence of remaining supporters and strengthens rival political platforms.
The most dangerous part is that many of these crises are self-inflicted.
A political party cannot continue to sideline committed stakeholders, ignore growing dissatisfaction, and expect unity to survive automatically. Politics requires inclusion, consultation, and respect for those who contribute to building the party.
Unfortunately, APC Bauchi is beginning to appear divided between those protecting the future of the party and those protecting personal political interests.

This is creating bitterness that may take years to repair.
Many supporters who once defended the party passionately are now questioning their place within the system. Others have already moved on politically, while many more remain silent observers waiting for the next opportunity to make their decisions.
The reality is simple:
No political party grows stronger by humiliating its strongest assets.
No political structure survives for long while continuously creating internal enemies.
And no party with a weak candidate can successfully challenge opposition.
Therefore, this is a sincere call for urgent intervention before the situation becomes irreversible
The leadership of our great party APC, at both state and national levels, must act immediately.
Most importantly, the party must recognize the strategic political value of leaders like Amb. Yusuf Maitama Tuggar, whose influence, acceptance, and credibility remain important for the future strength of APC in Bauchi State.
Time is running out.
The warning signs are already visible.
The defections are increasing.
The frustration is growing.
And the losses are becoming impossible to ignore.
APC Bauchi must decide quickly whether it wants to build a united future or continue counting the losses.
Michael Olukayode is a seasoned journalist and public analyst
APC Bauchi: Counting the Losses
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