NOW THAT GUBIO HAS EMERGED: A lessom in Continuity and Control.

NOW THAT GUBIO HAS EMERGED: A lessom in Continuity and Control.

By: Inuwa Bwala
inuwabwala3@gmail.com.

The emergence of Engineer Mustapha Gubio as the All Progressives Congress consensus governorship candidate for Borno State for the 2027 elections has reignited debate over succession politics in the North East.

The process contrasts sharply with the 2018 pathway that produced Professor Babagana Umara Zulum, as this one reveals how APC’s internal dynamics in Borno have evolved from competitive primaries to a craftily managed consensus.

In 2018 it was a heavily contested primary election, under the tutelage of the then Governor, Kashim Shettima: now Nigeria’s Vice President.

Professor Babagana Zulum, then Commissioner for Reconstruction, Rehabilitation and Resettlement, RRR, entered a field of 10 aspirants. He polled 4,432 votes to defeat his closest rival, Idris Mamman Durkwa, who managed 115 votes.

The contest was open, yet reflected the party’s early attempt to manage a crowded field while preserving the “Borno Model” of Shettima-Zulum continuity. Zulum went on to win the general election with 1,175,440 votes, and secured a second term unopposed in the 2022 APC primary. His rise was built on technocratic credentials as a professor of agricultural engineering, visibility in post-insurgency reconstruction, and the then governor’s backing.

Engineer Gubio’s 2026 emergence, which has been ratified with the affirmation of the consensus over contest
has seemingly changed the the script. Engineer Mustapha Gubio, who untill recently Professor Zulum’s Commissioner for Works and Housing, was presented by the governor as the APC consensus candidate for 2027. The announcement followed the purchase of nomination forms worth N50m and a presentation to Vice President Kashim Shettima at the Presidential Villa.

Zulum described the choice as the product of “extensive consultations” and a “unified position” within the party. His media aide went further to clarify, that, it was an “anointment,” not a formal endorsement, but the effect was the same: other aspirants, including Senator Kaka Shehu Lawan, stepped down to preserve party unity. The move was endorsed by APC Borno Stakeholders, who cited Gubio’s “experience and long-standing interaction with people of diverse religions, cultures, and tribes”.
Many described it as two paths, with one objective.

The contrast is instructive, as Zulum’s emergence in 2018 was a test of internal competition within a party still consolidating after the 2015 merger. It produced a clear winner through votes. Gubio’s path in 2026 bypassed that process entirely, relying instead on elite consensus brokered by the governor, with VP Shettima’s public blessing.

Analysts say the shift reflects Borno APC’s confidence in its dominance and its desire to avoid rancorous primaries ahead of a national election. “In Borno, the governor usually holds the local keys, but the Vice President holds the national map,” a party chieftain once said.

The arrangement also signals Zulum’s attempt to institutionalize a political culture, that differs with the old order, which were always turbulent.
Like many others, it is to me a seamless continuity between two men who share technocratic backgrounds and close ties to powers that be.

Professor Zulum was a professor and Rector before entering politics; while Gubio oversaw infrastructure delivery as Commissioner for Works. The emphasis on continuity, stability, and administrative competence is consistent with the government’s 25 years rolling development plan.

While some may argue that, the consensus model carries risks, to me in particular, it reduces intra-party rivalry and attendant post primary enemity, leaving no room for perceptions of manipulation of the process.
But even this, it tests the durability of the Zulum-Shettima alliance, which has been central to Borno’s political stability since 2015.

For now, APC leaders insist the decision is about unity. Whether it delivers electoral victory in 2027 will depend less on how Gubio emerged, and more on whether he can match Zulum’s public appeal and the party’s track record of delivering Borno to APC in every election since 2015.

It is no longer a question of if, but when Engineer Mustapha Gubio wins the Borno governorship in 2027, the public expectations are naturally high, but may largely be shaped by three things: Professor Babagana Umara Zulum’s legacy, the security situation, and Borno’s development needs.

Already, people are talking about, Sustaining and scaling up security gains.
It is no longer news that. Borno has made progress against Boko Haram/ISWAP, but communities like Gwoza, Chibok, Pulka, Kirawa, Wala and the Lake Chad areas still face periodic attacks with attendant food raids.

The public expects Engineer Gubio to continue Working closely with the military and federal government to secure rural communities and farmlands.
The public also expect him to work towards preventing a resurgence of insurgent recruitment driven by hunger and displacement.

There will be much expectations for him to also continue the “civilian-military” approach, which Governor Zulum used, by visiting frontline communities, supporting vigilantes, and pushing for resettlement.
Recent reports indicate that there may be dare food shortages and Gubio is expected to fix food security and humanitarian gaps.

The IDP crisis is still acute attendant upon the suspension of WFP aid since January 2026, this has further worsened hunger in camps and host communities, and people expect the next governor to push for the return of sustained food aid and livelihood programs, revive agriculture by making farmlands accessible and providing inputs, irrigation, and extension services, to avoid a situation where IDPs return to the bush because the conditions in camps are worse.

Like Zulum, Mustapha Gubio is also likely to deliver infrastructure and reconstruction, coming from the Works and Housing portfolio. There are very high expectations that, he will maintain Zulum’s pace on roads, schools, hospitals, and housing.

I am amongst those who rrmain confident that, he will complete resettlement projects for IDPs to return home with dignity, expand rural roads to open up agriculture and trade, improve electricity and water supply in Maiduguri and satellite towns and maintain Zulum’s “people-first” governance style.
I dare say, that Zulum built his reputation on unannounced visits, direct engagement with citizens, and quick responses to crises.
Borno residents expect Gubio to be visible, accessible, and tough on corruption and inefficiency. Anything less will be seen as a step back.

As a party man, I have seen the merits in managing party unity and succession politics, using the consensus arrangement, that produced Gubio as a model for future primary elections and will reduce rancour and unnecessary financial involvement. And I will not hesitate in recommending same to Engineer Gubio.

I know as a matter of fact, that the public expects him to govern for the whole state, not just as a placeholder, and to avoid alienating other power blocs in Borno politics. This has been the bane of many politicians in other climes.

The bottom line for Engineer Mustapha Gubio, is that, voters in Borno will judge Gubio and of course all those who may come on board to work with him by, whether he or they can keep the state safe, feed the people, and keep reconstruction moving without breaking the trust Zulum built with the masses.

If he’s seen as “Zulum 2.0” on service delivery but with his own approach to security and economy, expectations are that APC will hold Borno in 2027 and beyond.
With Gubio’s emergence and consequent affirmation, Borno looks set for another journey, remeniscient of the Zulum era. May God grant him good health, wisdom and understanding to tower above the public expectations.

inuwabwala3@gmail.com.

NOW THAT GUBIO HAS EMERGED: A lessom in Continuity and Control.