2027: There Is a Shift in Northern Support Towards Tinubu and Shettima

By: Dr. James Bwala

Recently, the evolving political dynamics in Northern Nigeria ahead of the 2027 presidential election reveal a significant shift in support towards President Bola Tinubu and Vice President Kashim Shettima. This change challenges earlier apprehensions surrounding the Muslim-Muslim ticket, which faced considerable criticism in 2023 for potentially alienating key Christian constituencies within the North-Central and Middle Belt regions. Contrary to these concerns, influential political groups such as the North-Central APC Forum have expressed robust backing for the Tinubu-Shettima ticket, citing sustained regional support driven by strategic appointments of prominent Christian leaders and tangible governance achievements. 

I recalled sitting in the congregation on a Sunday morning earlier this year and listening to the preacher. His words struck me with the assurance of faith in the APC administration. It solidifies my continuous advocacy that Nigeria is on the path of the renewed hope promised by the Tinubu and Shettima administration. The charges on the direction this administration is taking and what they were able to achieve further strengthen my appeal for confidence that, like never before in the history of this great country, we have found leaders who are truly committed to bringing back our long-lost hope by the renewal initiative the Tinubu and Kashim Shettima leadership is taking to every doorstepacross Nigeria. A hope—long lost in leadership—is found here with Tinubu and Shettima. 

He spoke also on the lingering political questions between the president and his vice, describing the permutations around the rift within the first and second families and predictions by certain classes and groups as evil seeds, which can never come to pass. This has come true with the message of goodwill from President Bola Ahmed Tinubu to Vice President Kashim Shettima during the celebration of his 59th birthday. Indeed, the silence that greeted those hoping to see Kashim Shettima replaced confirms the preacher’s testament. The retention of Shettima as running mate is seen not only as a continuation of a winning formula but also as a critical factor in consolidating northern votes estimated to reach up to 90% in certain areas. Indeed, the endorsements from coalitions like the Northern Progressives Coalition underscore an emerging consensus that transcends previous religious and ethnic fault lines, suggesting a recalibration of political allegiances based on performance and perceived stability. 

This transition is primarily influenced by several factors, including the performance of previous leaders, regional interests, and the appeal of Tinubu and Shettima as candidates. The North has historically been a vital political bloc in Nigeria. Its immense population translates to significant voting power. Despite the appeal by the coalition leaders, the dissatisfaction of northern voters with candidates like Atiku Abubakar, Nasir el-Rufai, and Peter Obi has been growing. Atiku, a veteran politician, has repeatedly contested for the presidency without achieving success. Many in the North may feel fatigued by his long political career and perceive a lack of fresh ideas or strategies to solve pressing issues. 

On the other hand, El-Rufai, despite his role as the Governor of Kaduna State, is often criticized for his handling of security challenges in the region. The North has faced a surge in violence, kidnappings, and terrorism over the years, and some citizens believe el-Rufai’s policies were inadequate. Consequently, confidence in him has diminished as voters seek more reliable leadership in times of crisis.For Mr. Peter Obi, a former governor of Anambra State, he gained popularity due to his focus on education and economic reforms. However, his appeal may not resonate as strongly in the North, where issues such as security and religious sentiments are of greater concern. As people evaluate their choices, they may prioritize candidates who can address these critical issues effectively. 

Whether the opposition agrees or not, those who have been following development in Nigeria know that President Bola Tinubu and Vice President Kashim Shettima present a promising alternative for Northern voters. Both have established political careers. Tinubu, a former governor of Lagos State, is known for his influential political machinery and his ability to build alliances across parties. Shettima, his running mate, has been involved in addressing the Boko Haram insurgency during his tenure as governor of Borno State. Their combined experience appeals to voters who are weary of ineffective leadership and are looking for pragmatic solutions to Nigeria’s challenges. 

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The regional loyalty also plays a crucial role in the upcoming elections. The North may feel inclined to support candidates who are capable of uniting Nigeria. Tinubu and Shettima’s collaborative approach could foster a sense of national cohesion, further solidifying their candidacy in the hearts of Northern voters. As the political landscape evolves in preparation for the 2027 elections, Tinubu and Shettima’s experience, strategies, and ability to address pressing concerns, as shown by their leadership styles, position them as formidable candidates, likely to gain substantial support from the North in the upcoming elections. 

While the political trajectory of Nigeria’s presidency under Bola Tinubu and Vice President Kashim Shettima suggests a continued consolidation of power leading into the 2027 election. Observers and party insiders alike have expressed confidence that the duo will secure victory with a significantly wider margin than in the 2023 polls. This assertion is grounded in several factors, including Tinubu’s strategic governance approach, Shettima’s regional appeal, and their combined ability to maintain a broad coalition across Nigeria’s diverse electorate. 

Despite initial controversies surrounding the Muslim-Muslim ticket, which some analysts feared could alienate key voter blocs, the administration has demonstrated inclusiveness and political dexterity that mitigate such concerns. The careful selection of Shettima as vice president was not only a move to balance regional interests but also to strengthen party unity and electoral prospects. Indeed, internal party structures such as those advocated by influential groups like the North-Central APC Forum highlight strong grassroots support for retaining this ticket, emphasizing their proven effectiveness in mobilizing voters across critical regions.

*James Bwala, PhD, writes from Abuja. 

2027: There Is a Shift in Northern Support Towards Tinubu and Shettima

Shettima’s 59th Birthday: President Tinubu’s Stand Against Calls for Replacement

Dr. James Bwala

On September 2, 2025, Nigeria’s Vice President Kashim Shettima celebrated his 59th birthday amidst much public discussion about his political future. Until now, there have been murmurs from certain groups, including political analysts, critics, and so-called prophets, suggesting that Shettima should be replaced. This narrative has sparked significant debate across the country, especially in light of the ongoing economic challenges and security issues Nigeria faces. However, President Bola Tinubu’s unwavering support for Shettima on this special occasion silenced many of those voices, showcasing a united front within the Nigerian government. 

The president’s decision to publicly praise Vice President Kashim Shettima on the occasion of his birthday highlighted their strong political alliance and friendship. While he described Vice President Shettima as a dedicated leader and a loyal partner in governance, he effectively countered the claims made by those hoping to see Shettima replaced. This celebration was not just a personal milestone for the vice president but also a political statement, affirming that the current administration stands firm against any factions that might want to disrupt their unity. 

The so-called “cabal”—a term often used to describe a group of influential individuals within Nigerian politics—has faced significant scrutiny in recent years. Critics suggest that these individuals try to influence political decisions behind the scenes. However, by publicly supporting Shettima, President Tinubu demonstrates his refusal to allow the cabal’s influence to dictate the direction of his administration. This move is a clear signal to both his supporters and detractors that he is confident in his choices. 

Attention also focused on so-called prophets and doomsayers who predicted the vice president’s imminent replacement. These individuals often use social media and public forums to express their predictions, which can create uncertainty. Yet, Tinubu’s positive acknowledgment of Shettima defied these narratives, illustrating that the government is not swayed by speculative concerns or negative forecasts. 

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Shettima’s 59th birthday became a pivotal moment in Nigerian politics, emphasizing unity and resilience within the current administration. President Tinubu’s support for the vice president serves not only to repel calls for Shettima’s replacement but also to reinforce the notion that stability is vital for Nigeria’s progress. This reflection of solidarity is crucial as the country navigates various challenges, showing that collaboration and loyalty are key ingredients in leadership.

The move by President Tinubu on this occasion reminds citizens that the political landscape is influenced not just by predictions but also by the strength of leaders working together for the common good. The political climate in many countries has shown how leadership can shape the future. Political predictions often forecast outcomes based on past trends, statistics, and public sentiment. While these predictions can serve as guidelines, they do not always capture the essence of what will actually happen. Instead, the true power lies in the ability of leaders to come together, set aside differences, and work toward shared goals. 

President Tinubu’s latest initiatives illustrate this point. By assembling a diverse group of leaders from various backgrounds, he demonstrates that collective efforts can lead to better decision-making and more substantial outcomes for citizens. 

An excellent example of unified leadership is seen in the responses to major challenges, such as economic downturns or public health crises. During the COVID-19 pandemic, leaders around the world had to collaborate to share resources, information, and strategies. Countries that exemplified unity, like New Zealand, achieved better health outcomes and maintained public trust. Similarly, President Tinubu, by working closely with other political figures and community leaders, can build a resilient framework that helps Nigeria navigate its challenges. 

When leaders display teamwork and solidarity, it inspires citizens to unite as well and develop such public trust and confidence in the government, which often hinges on the perceived integrity and cooperative nature of its leaders. If citizens see their leaders working towards common objectives, they are more likely to engage positively with political processes. Indeed, collaborative leadership fosters innovation. When leaders from different political parties or sectors come together, they bring diverse perspectives and ideas. This exchange can lead to creative solutions for longstanding issues, such as poverty, education, and infrastructure. President Tinubu’s administration has the potential to tap into this resource, maximizing the benefits of a collaborative approach. 

The political landscape is not merely shaped by forecasts but significantly influenced by the cooperation of leaders aiming for the common good. This is exactly what the Jagaban did and presented a reminder of the power of unity in leadership. By promoting collaboration, leaders can tackle challenges effectively while inspiring their citizens to contribute to a better society. This approach will ultimately lead to positive changes and a brighter future for all come 2027.

James Bwala, PhD, writes from Abuja

Shettima’s 59th Birthday: President Tinubu’s Stand Against Calls for Replacement

VP Kashim Shettima: The Strengths of Experience at 59.

Dr. James Bwala

Vice President Kashim Shettima’s extensive experience has enriched his political aptitude, enhanced his approaches to governance, and fostered his effectiveness in contributing to policy implementation in Nigeria. At the age of 59, VP Shettima’s career portfolio showcases an array of political, economic, and social acumen, positioning him as a formidable leader in a nation grappling with multifaceted challenges and experience. Today, in the contemporary landscape of Nigerian politics, where the interplay of youth and experience often shapes leadership dynamics, Vice President Kashim Shettima stands as a significant figure embodying the strengths of experience.

Your Excellency, your political career spans over two decades and showcases a wealth of experience from a leader that is crucial for effective leadership. Beginning as an Honourable Commissioner and later serving as the Governor of Borno State from 2011 to 2019, Shettima has navigated the complexities of governance in one of Nigeria’s most challenging regions. As governor of Borno State at a time that coincided with the height of the Boko Haram insurgency, he developed pragmatic solutions under duress. This tumultuous period not only honed his crisis management skills but also solidified his understanding of security, a critical issue in Nigeria today.

Indeed, your ability to govern effectively in times of crisis underscores the value of experience, particularly when addressing issues that require nuanced understanding and decisive action. I can say this on the rooftop for whosoever cares to hear that VP Shettima’s experience extends beyond mere political maneuvering; it encompasses a profound comprehension of socio-economic policies essential for national development.

Shettima initiated programs aimed at rebuilding infrastructure, revitalizing education, and promoting agricultural sustainability, key sectors essential for Nigeria’s growth, when he was governor of Borno state. These initiatives not only demonstrate his capacity for long-term planning but also highlight an understanding of the interdependencies between security, economic stability, and social well-being. He became the envy of his predecessor, a reason that still reels out passion on the screen. When many leaders are quick to react without considering broader implications, Shettima’s approach exemplifies a strategy rooted in experiential learning and adaptive governance.

Another critical strength derived from Shettima’s extensive experience is his capacity to forge alliances and cultivate relationships across diverse political spectrums. Political landscapes are often fraught with partisan divisions, and a leader who can navigate these waters is invaluable. Shettima’s ability to build coalitions is evidenced by his role in various regional and national dialogues aimed at fostering peace and collaboration among differing factions. Even haters mocked themselves when it came to feeding his reactions. Such diplomacy is increasingly vital in Nigeria, where ethnic, religious, and cultural divides can threaten national unity.

The Vice President, Kashim Shettima, is an example of how seasoned leaders can bridge gaps and foster collaboration, contributing to a more cohesive governance structure. His experience provides him with a historical context that is often lacking in some personalities, who claim to be leaders. Understanding the past is essential for informed decision-making and policy formulation. Leaders well-versed in historical injustices, socio-economic disparities, and regional dynamics are better equipped to enact legislation that addresses systemic issues rather than mere symptoms. Shettima’s insights into the roots of poverty, unemployment, and disenfranchisement allow him to champion policies that are both relevant and forward-thinking.

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His ability to read many books built the exposure to various leadership roles. This has endowed him with a comprehensive understanding of the bureaucracy and institutional frameworks necessary for effective governance. While as Commissioner in Borno State and as Governor, Shettima was familiar with the complexities of public administration—an advantage that some leaders may overlook or underestimate. He remains a leader who comprehends the intricacies of state machinery and can better navigate bureaucratic challenges, ensuring that policies are not only created but also effectively implemented. This ability is particularly important in Nigeria, where inefficient bureaucracies often stifle progress and frustrate the citizenry. In this, Shettima stands better and ahead of critics.

Indeed, critics of experience-centered leadership may argue that it can lead to stagnation and an inability to adapt to new ideas, especially in a rapidly changing technological and social landscape. However, Shettima’s track record counters this notion. The vice president has demonstrated a willingness to embrace innovation while leveraging traditional methods. For instance, during his governorship, he introduced technology-based solutions to enhance educational outcomes and agricultural productivity, showcasing a harmonious integration of experience and innovation. This demonstrates that experience does not equate to inflexibility; rather, it can facilitate a more informed approach to embracing change.

As Nigeria continues to confront persistent challenges, the need for experienced leadership becomes ever more critical. Your robust background equips you to address these issues effectively, employing lessons learned from previous successes and failures. Your Excellency, your experience positions you uniquely as a leader who can navigate the nuanced terrain of Nigerian politics, making informed decisions that prioritize the nation’s long-term interests over transient gains.

Happy Birthday, Mr. Vice President, Kashim Shettima, my leader and brother. Your 59 years of life experience serve as a cornerstone of your leadership effectiveness. And of course, your extensive political career, coupled with your adeptness in crisis management, socio-economic policy formulation, and coalition-building, illustrates that experience is not merely beneficial but essential in navigating Nigeria’s complex socio-political landscape.

As Nigeria seeks to overcome its challenges, Vice President Kashim Shettima embodies a model of leadership that is informed by experience, capable of fostering unity, and committed to implementing effective governance strategies. Embracing such seasoned leadership is imperative for a nation striving for progress and sustainability in an ever-evolving world.

* James Bwala, PhD, writes from Abuja.

VP Kashim Shettima: The Strengths of Experience at 59.