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Political turmoil in Madagascar, Cameroon underscores rising threat to democracy in Africa

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Political turmoil in Madagascar, Cameroon underscores rising threat to democracy in Africa

By: Zagazola Makama

The recent coup in Madagascar and the disputed presidential election in Cameroon have once again drawn global attention to the growing fragility of democracy across Africa, amid worsening governance crises, corruption, and insecurity.

In Madagascar, soldiers of the elite Corps d’Administration des Personnel et des Services des Armées Terrestres (CAPSAT) on Oct. 11 staged a coup in the capital, Antananarivo, toppling President Andry Rajoelina’s government after weeks of military defections and anti-government protests.

The mutiny, led by Colonel Michael Randriannirina, followed mounting grievances over corruption, poor governance, and the lack of essential public services such as electricity and potable water. CAPSAT had previously played a decisive role in the 2009 coup that first brought Rajoelina to power.

Reports indicate that the president fled the country aboard a French military plane and has since released a statement claiming he remains the legitimate leader of Madagascar.

In the aftermath, the country’s top court ordered the junta to organize elections within 60 days. However, the new military leadership has announced plans to remain in power for two years before holding fresh polls, a move that has heightened tensions and uncertainty.

The international community has reacted cautiously. The African Union and Western governments have called for restraint and the immediate restoration of constitutional order. France, the former colonial power, has suspended all flights to Madagascar, while the United States advised its citizens to shelter in place. The United Nations has also expressed deep concern, urging respect for democracy and human rights.

Meanwhile, in Cameroon, political tension has escalated following the Oct. 12 presidential election, in which President Paul Biya, 92, sought an eighth term in office.

The main opposition candidate has declared victory and urged Biya to concede defeat “in the interest of truth and democracy.” However, the government has cautioned that only the Constitutional Council has the authority to announce official results.

Minister of Territorial Administration Paul Atanga Nji warned that any unauthorized declaration of results would amount to treason.

The election, observers say, has been marred by reports of irregularities, vote-buying, and intimidation. The ruling Cameroon People’s Democratic Movement (RDPC) continues to dominate the political landscape, having won all 70 senatorial seats in the March 2025 elections.

The opposition has accused the government of manipulating the electoral process, while insecurity persists in the Anglophone regions, where government forces and separatists continue to clash. The ongoing conflict has led to widespread displacement, restricted civil society activity, and human rights violations.

Analysts say the unfolding crises in Madagascar and Cameroon underscore a broader continental challenge, the steady erosion of democratic norms and resurgence of military interventions in Africa.

“The lack of a unified and firm response to coups has emboldened would-be coup leaders across the continent,” one regional security analyst told Zagazola.

Madagascar now joins a growing list of African nations under military rule, including Niger, Mali, Burkina Faso, Guinea, Chad, and Sudan. Experts warn that this trend threatens to undo decades of democratic progress and could destabilize already fragile regions.

“The combination of corruption, bad governance, and economic hardship has created a fertile ground for military intervention,” another observer noted, adding that militaries often justify coups as efforts to “restore stability” but tend to prolong transitions indefinitely.

External influences, including geopolitical rivalries and inconsistent responses from international organizations, have further complicated efforts to safeguard democratic governance.

The twin crises in Madagascar and Cameroon highlight the urgent need for African leaders to strengthen governance systems, promote accountability, and improve service delivery to regain public trust.

Failure to address these underlying issues, experts warn, could trigger further unrest, protests, or even coups in other parts of the continent.

“The future of democracy in countries like Madagascar and Cameroon hangs in the balance,” an African Union diplomat told Zagazola. “Without decisive leadership, these nations risk sliding deeper into instability.”

The African Union, regional blocs, and international partners are now under pressure to take coordinated action to deter future coups and support credible democratic transitions.

Africa’s path to stability depends on transparent governance, respect for the rule of law, and inclusive development, the true foundations of peace and democratic resilience.

Political turmoil in Madagascar, Cameroon underscores rising threat to democracy in Africa

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What Niamey’s Airport attack means for Niger, West Africa and Sahel

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What Niamey’s Airport attack means for Niger, West Africa and Sahel

By: Zagazola Makama

Niamey woke up in the morning of Thursday to disturbing reports of heavy gunfire and explosions around the airport zone an area that hosts Niger’s air force base, the headquarters of the joint Sahel force with Mali and Burkina Faso, and a strategic stockpile of uranium.

For nearly two hours, residents heard detonations, saw flashes in the sky resembling anti-aircraft fire, and reported buildings and vehicles in flames. Calm has since returned, but clarity has not.

At the time of writing, no official statement has fully explained what happened. No group has claimed responsibility. And while authorities insist the situation is under control, the silence leaves space for speculation in a region already on edge.

The location alone makes the event highly sensitive. The Niamey airport zone is not an ordinary district. It is the nerve centre of Niger’s air power and regional military coordination. It also hosts uranium stocks, a strategic resource with both national and international implications.

Any shooting in this area automatically raises three big questions: Was this an external attack, an internal security incident, or a mutiny? Some sources suggest the firing may have come from inside the base, which points to the possibility of an internal breach or unrest. If true, this would indicate deep cracks within Niger’s security architecture.

Was a strategic asset targeted? Even if the uranium was not hit, the fact that fighting occurred near such a site elevates the risk level for Niger and its partners. What does this say about control under the current junta? Since Gen. Abdourahamane Tiani took power, Niger has continued to lose it grip on issues of national security. An incident of this scale in the capital challenges that narrative.

For Nigeria, the situation in Niger is not remote. The two countries share a long, porous border, strong trade ties, and deep security interdependence. If Niger’s capital can experience hours of unexplained gunfire around its most sensitive installations, then cross-border insecurity risks increase. Any weakening of control in Niamey could embolden armed groups across the Sahel, including those operating near Nigeria’s northern frontier.

The Sahel’s security architecture looks more fragile. Niger, Mali and Burkina Faso have positioned themselves as a new security bloc after breaking with ECOWAS. Incidents like this brings to the fore about how cohesive and effective that bloc really is. Strategic resources become geopolitical flashpoints. Uranium is not just a Nigerien issue; it has global implications. Any instability around such assets invites international concern and possible pressure.

There is no confirmed evidence yet of a foreign attack, a coup attempt, or a direct operation against uranium. So panic would be premature.
But silence is just as dangerous. In security matters, the absence of clear communication feeds rumours, conspiracy theories and political manipulation. In the Sahel’s volatile environment, that can quickly become destabilising.

What Niamey’s Airport attack means for Niger, West Africa and Sahel

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Mysterious attack rocks Niger Air Base in Niamey, raises fears of mutiny

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Mysterious attack rocks Niger Air Base in Niamey, raises fears of mutiny

By: Zagazola Makama

A major security breach has hit Niger’s capital, Niamey, following a midnight attack on Air Base 101, damaging key military assets and deepening concerns about instability under the junta led by Gen. Abdourahamane Tchiani.

Multiple security sources said explosions were heard around 12:00 a.m. on Wednesday at the strategic air base located near the Diori Hamani International Airport.

The attack reportedly destroyed or disabled several aerial assets, including drones and fixed-wing aircraft, and severely damaged the Unified Force Command Centre.

Four civilian aircraft on the tarmac, including one operated by ASKY Airlines, were also affected, though no passengers were onboard at the time.

Sources said two trucks transporting uranium materials within the base perimeter were hit, but their cargo remained intact, averting a potentially larger disaster.

There were confirmed casualties, with ambulances seen moving in and out of the base area through the night. Some of the attackers were reportedly killed, while others were arrested and taken into custody by Niger’s intelligence services.

However, the identity of those behind the assault remains unclear.

While early speculation pointed to jihadist involvement, no armed group has claimed responsibility. Other security sources told Zagazola that the operation appeared to have been launched from inside the air base, suggesting a possible mutiny rather than an external terrorist strike.

“The pattern of the attack and access to sensitive areas strongly indicate insider involvement,” one regional security analyst said.

The incident has intensified fears that Gen. Tchiani is losing control over key institutions, especially the military, raising serious implications for Niger’s stability and for neighbouring countries, including Nigeria.

Niger plays a critical role in regional security in the Sahel, and any further breakdown of command and control could create new risks for border states already battling terrorism and banditry.

As of the time of filing this report, Niger’s authorities had yet to issue an official statement on the incident.

Mysterious attack rocks Niger Air Base in Niamey, raises fears of mutiny

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Alleged terrorism: Rescued victims filed complaints against Tukur Mamu- DSS Witness

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Alleged terrorism: Rescued victims filed complaints against Tukur Mamu- DSS Witness

A Department of State Services (DSS)’ investigator, on Thursday, told the Federal High Court in Abuja that many of the rescued victims of the 2022 Abuja-Kaduna bound train attack lodged complaints in their office against alleged terrorist negotiator, Tukur Mamu.

The DSS operative, who testified as 6th prosecution witness (PW-6) in the ongoing terrorism trial of Mamu, made the disclosure to Justice Mohammed Umar while being cross-examined by the defence counsel, Johnson Usman, SAN.

The lawyer had asked the witness, who gave his testimony behind a witness screen for security reasons, “to confirm to court if any of the rescue victims, including the wife of the Commandant in Jaji, made any complaint against the defendant to the DSS.”

Responding, the witness said: “Yes, my lord.”

When Usman further asked the witness if the complaint by the rescued victims was either in writing or oral, he said it was in writing.

The DSS’ lawyer, David Kaswe, however, prayed the court to restrain Usman from delving into questions that might touch on the identity of victims or witnesses in the case since the court had granted protection to all.

Responding, Usman told the court that none of the names he called was a witness before the court.

“Even though my lord has granted an order for trial in camera, a trial in camera is not to prejudice the defendant,” he said.

The witness said he interviewed six victims in the course of the investigation.

When he was asked if the six victims were interviewed in the presence of Mamu, the PW-6 responded in the negative.

The witness told the court that he was not a vocologist, having not studied sound in higher institution.

He, however, confirmed that the audio exhibit tendered by the prosecution was the extract of the transcribed audio between Mamu and the terrorists.

When he was asked if he interviewed a former Chief of Defence Staff, General Lucky Irabor (retd.), he said the army chief was not interviewed.

The witness, however, admitted that General Abdulkadir Abubakar was interviewed in the course of investigation.

“When you interviewed him, was it in the presence of the defendant?” the lawyer asked and he said: “No my lord.”

“Did you interview Sheikh Gumi?” Usman asked and the witness responded in the affirmative.

“Was it in the presence of the defendant?” Usman asked.

“No my lord,” the witness responded.

“Did you interview Major General Idris Garba?”

“No my lord,” the PW-6 said.

“Did you interview General Jalingo?” the lawyer asked, and he said: “Yes, my lord.”

The witness said General Jalingo was not interviewed in Mamu’s presence.

“Finally, did you interviewed Hannafi of Defence Military Intelligence,” the lawyer asked and the witness responded in the negative.

“Confirm to court, whether at any time in the course of your investigation, you brought members of the Chief of Defence Staff (CDS) Committee for interview in the presence of the defendant,” Usman asked and the witness responded in the negative.

“Please confirm whether you are aware that the defendant has requested that you brought members of the CDS Committee face to face with him for interview,” the lawyer asked and the witness said: “Yes, he did.”

“Confirm whether the request of the defendant to have the CDS and others involved gathered together for interrogation was granted,” Usman asked, and the witness said:”No, my lord.”

When Usman asked the witness to confirm that Mamu told him that he is a publisher of a newspaper and magazine, the witness said: “Yes, he said so.”

When the lawyer asked the witness to confirm that Mamu told him his means of income was derived from his journalism business, the PW-6 said: “Yes, he claimed “

“As investigator, did you investigate this claim,” the lawyer asked.

“Yes, we did,” he responded.

After the cross-examination, Kaswe told the court the prosecution’s intention to close its case.

“So that we can allow the defendant to enter his defence if they are ready,” he said.

But Usman told the court that they would rather apply for a date to open their defence, .

“We will not file a no-case submission so that the world can see it and God can see it all,” he said.

Justice Umar adjourned the matter until April 23 for Mamu to open his defence.

Alleged terrorism: Rescued victims filed complaints against Tukur Mamu- DSS Witness

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