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Rebuilding Zamfara in a Complex Era – The Dauda Lawal Style
Rebuilding Zamfara in a Complex Era – The Dauda Lawal Style
By: Zagazola Makama
In the intricate landscape of Zamfara State’s recent history, a transformative chapter unfolds with the governance of Dauda Lawal. Amidst the shadows of banditry, poverty, and institutional decay, his tenure as the 5th Executive Governor emerges as a beacon of hope and resilience. Through a tapestry of strategic reforms and resolute actions, Governor Lawal orchestrates a bold revival of Zamfara’s fortunes, championing security, education, healthcare, infrastructure, and empowerment initiatives. As the state grapples with the legacy of past challenges, Zagazola Media Network Team who was in Zamfara recently, has in this captivating piece, captures how Governor Lawal’s leadership shines as a testament to visionary governance in a complex era, heralding a new dawn of progress and prosperity for Zamfara.
In the last decade, Zamfara State, like its neighbor in the North-West region, has been engulfed by banditry, kidnapping, and other crimes that threatened the social fabric and economy of the state. Many people were killed, and thousands displaced, while large-scale destruction of public and private properties was perpetrated by the bandits, resulting in a serious humanitarian crisis in the state.

Upon his inauguration as the 5th Executive Governor of Zamfara on May 29, 2023, Dauda Lawal inherited Zamfara in a state of bankruptcy characterized by decayed institutions, widespread poverty, and hunger among the citizens, thus eroding the confidence of the people in the government’s ability to navigate the security and economic challenges bedeviling the state.

The past administration had failed to pay workers for four months, leaving them in bad shape. As a passionate leader, Governor Dauda Lawal quickly sourced funds with which he paid off the backlog of four months’ salaries. These included the withheld salaries of local government workers and primary school teachers. To break the shackles of poverty and address the myriad of problems bedeviling the state, the Dauda Lawal administration initiated viable empowerment, social, and economic infrastructure development programs to build a secure, peaceful, and prosperous state.
The November 2022 release of the multidimensional poverty index revealed a troubling statistic for Zamfara: 78% of its population is living in poverty, showcasing a worsening trend under the past government of Matawalle, now a minister in the federal cabinet, as poverty increased from 74% to 78%.

Furthermore, the preceding administration in Zamfara showed inadequacies in debt management. In 2019, according to a report by Premium Times, Zamfara’s total debt, including both domestic and external, stood at N103.35 billion. This figure climbed to N130.1 billion in 2020 and further increased to N130.94 billion in 2021. Shortly before Governor Lawal took over power, the state held the second-highest debt burden in the North-West region and ranked 15th among the 36 states of the federation in terms of debt levels.
Despite inheriting an empty treasury, Governor Dauda Lawal has so far kept to his campaign promises and has accomplished major strides in key sectors to rescue and rebuild Zamfara under his Six Smarts Agenda

Securing Zamfara
To end banditry and other security breaches in the state, the Lawal administration demonstrated high commitment to curb the lingering banditry and kidnapping. This singular commitment led to the establishment of the Zamfara Community Protection Guards (CPG), also known as “ASKARAWA,” the pioneer security guard corps in the North-West region. Members of the guard corps underwent rigorous physical and regimental training to prepare them to assist the security agencies with credible intelligence to combat insecurity. The group has been very helpful in foiling bandit attacks in villages and towns across local government areas of the state. This has given the people hope for safety and security.
Other security-related interventions by the governor included the provision of logistics and equipment to the security agencies, such as fueling of patrol armored vehicles, and repairing patrol vehicles to improve the security presence throughout the state, as well as conducting periodic meetings of the State Security Committee. Also, the Lawal administration, through collaborative operations with the security agencies comprising the Nigerian Army, Police, State Security Services, NSCDC, among others, successfully neutralized key bandit kingpins including Kachalla Ali Kawaje, the mastermind of the abduction of students of the Federal University Gusau. Other neutralized bandits are Kachalla Jafaru, Kachalla Barume, Kachalla Shehu, Tsoho, Kachalla Yellow Mai Buhu, Yellow Sirajo, Kachalla Dan Muhammadu, Kachalla Makasko, Sanda, Abdulbasiru Ibrahim, Mai Wagumbe, Kachalla Begu, Kwalfa, Ma’aikaci, Yellow Hassan, Umaru Na Bugala, Isyaka Gwarnon Daji, Iliya Babban Kashi, Auta Dan Mai Jan Ido, and Yahaya Dan Shama.

Education Revolution
Recognizing the crucial link between education and development, the Dauda Lawal administration declared a State of Emergency in the education sector. This initiative aimed to combat illiteracy, empower the youth and women, and establish a strong foundation for sustainable social and economic progress in the state.
The governor has implemented sound school infrastructure and teacher development programs in the past year in office. The projects are designed to correct the deteriorating state of education inherited from the previous administration and revive the sector to conform with best international standards. The Lawal administration paid N1.4 billion in outstanding examination fees for indigent students who sat for the West African Examination Council (WAEC) and Senior Secondary Certificate of Education (SSCE in the past three years. WAEC had released all the withheld results following the payment of the examination fees owed by previous governments. Similarly, Governor Lawal approved and ensured the payment of the National Examination Council (NECO) fees for all public school candidates who sat for the 2023 exams. Certificates for the candidates who sat for the 2019 NECO examinations have since been collected and distributed to the students.

The results of the NECO exams taken in 2020, 2021, and 2022 were also released to students in November 2023. The results were previously withheld by the examination body due to defaults in payment by the previous administration. It is heartwarming to note that with Lawal’s intervention, students who graduated during those years can now access their results and apply to different tertiary institutions for admission.
In terms of infrastructure, the Lawal administration has started the construction and renovation of 245 schools spread across the 14 Local Government Areas (LGAs) of the state. This effort involves not only renovating these schools but also providing two-seater desks for 9,542 pupils and students, furnishing 1,545 tables and chairs for teachers, and carrying out the rehabilitation and remodeling of 28 schools throughout the state.
To address the menace of out-of-school children and encourage girl-child enrollment and retention in school, the Lawal administration contributed N150 million as a counterpart fund to fast-track the implementation of the Adolescent Girls Initiative For Learning And Empowerment Additional Financing (AGILE-AF). AGILE-AF is a World Bank education intervention program aimed at empowering young girls to complete basic education and acquire skills to enable them to become self-reliant and contribute to the development of society.
Governor Lawal has also provided office space to the project implementing team and conducted a Needs Assessment exercise in 123 basic and post-basic schools and 40 non-formal Islamic schools in the state. In his determination to provide a safe and conducive learning environment, the Dauda Lawal administration has revived the school feeding scheme in 10 senior boarding schools for the 2023/2024 academic session, while extending scholarships and bursary awards to cover tuition fees of students studying in Nigerian institutions and overseas, including Sudan, Cyprus, and India. This gesture is to ensure the seamless progression of their academic pursuits.

Lawal has also sponsored 50 percent of Zamfara indigenes admitted into the Federal Government Girls College Gusau for the 2023-2024 academic sessions. To buttress its drive for ensuring access to quality education, the governor approved the suspension of the licenses of private education providers in the state. This ensures that private schools meet the required standards for providing quality education in a comfortable environment with well-trained teachers, quality infrastructure, and necessary equipment. Governor Dauda Lawal constructed additional classrooms and renovated the exam halls.
Transforming Healthcare Services
On January 30, 2024, Governor Dauda Lawal declared a state of emergency in the health sector, with a view to tackling the rot in the system and transforming the sector towards the delivery of quality healthcare services in the state. To this end, the Lawal administration rolled out infrastructure and capacity development projects in health facilities across the state. The projects include rehabilitation and provision of equipment at the general hospitals in Maradun, Maru, Kauran Namoda, Gusau, and the primary health center in Nasarawa Burkullu, as well as the rehabilitation of the School of Health Technology, Tsafe.
Importantly, Lawal has organized a Special Modified Medical Outreach Program to address critical healthcare needs and improve people’s quality of life. The outreach provided free medical services to people with cases of cataracts, groin swellings (hernias, hydroceles), Vesico Vaginal Fistula (VVF) repairs, and health education. This is the first time in Zamfara’s history that the state government is engaging in a free medical outreach that covers such critical areas; the ongoing modified outreach utilizes tele-screening for patients from rural and semi-urban areas to provide specialized care to people in need.
About 1,858 persons had so far benefited from the free medical outreach across the 14 LGAs in the state, including 747 groin swellings, 246 swellings & lumps, 781 cataract surgeries, and 84 VVF repairs, as well as the supply of medical supplies to hospitals across the state.
Enhancing Access to Clean Water
For many years, residents of Gusau, the state capital, and other parts of the state have been experiencing acute water shortages due to the collapse of urban and rural water schemes, a situation that forced them to rely on unwholesome water sources. However, the governor conducted a total turnaround maintenance of the facilities to ensure a steady water supply to meet the growing demand of the population. Today, most parts of the state enjoy access to potable water.
Civil Service Reform
Upon taking office, Dauda Lawal initiated a civil service reform program aimed at revitalizing the workforce. This program focused on capacity-building training, creating conducive work environments, and introducing improved welfare packages. These efforts were designed to cultivate a dynamic and results-driven workforce to propel the development agenda of his administration.
Some of the laudable achievements include the payment of withheld salaries of workers. The immediate past administration owed four months’ salaries to the workers. In appreciation of the workers’ contributions to the attainment of government policies and programs, as well as concern for their welfare, Dauda Lawal quickly sourced funds to pay off the backlog of four months’ salaries, including the withheld salaries of local government workers and primary school teachers. The governor approved the payment of N4 billion in backlog gratuities to retired workers owed since 2011. Workers also received a 10 percent leave grant for the first time in the history of the state.
Regarding restructuring, the Lawal administration has reduced the number of ministries in the state from 28 to 16, and the number of Permanent Secretaries from 48 to 23. This is to reinvigorate the service, promote good work ethics and productivity, cut government expenditure, and promote transparency and accountability in the service.
Road Infrastructure/Urban Renewal Project
On August 18, 2023, the Dauda Lawal administration embarked on massive road construction projects under the Urban Renewal Project in Gusau and other major towns in the state. The first phase of the project involves reconstructing and improving 3.5 km of township roads in Gusau and enhancing the drainage system. The project was awarded to Ronchess Nigeria Limited, starting from Bello Barau Roundabout – Old Market Road, Bello Barau Roundabout – Central Police Station Road, Bello Barau Roundabout – Government House Road, and Kwanar Yan Keke – Emir’s Palace – Tankin Ruwa Road.
A 14-kilometer dualized road was also awarded to the construction giant to link Government House – Lalan Mareri, Government House – Sule Zumunci Pharmacy, and Danlarai Mosque – Nasiha Pharmacy, as well as reclaiming the government house gate and landscaping. A 3.4 km dual carriageway project was awarded to TRIACTA Nigeria Ltd, from Lalan Sokoto Road – Government House, and the construction of 13 km township roads was awarded to MOTHER CAT NIG. LTD for the relocation of Lalan – Lalan New 7 numbers of township roads.
Some of the completed road projects, like the Freedom Square – Nasiha Chemist Junction and Freedom Square – Government House – Lalan – Gada Biyu, were commissioned in June 2024 by a former Governor of Bauchi State, Ahmed Mu’azu.
Other projects that have been executed include the renovation and furnishing of the state secretariat complex, rehabilitation of courtrooms, legislative quarters, NYSC Camp, recovery of the Governor’s Lodge Kaduna, and remodeling of Sardauna Memorial Stadium, Gusau.
The Governor also approved the award of the contract for the construction of the Ultra-modern Central Motor Park to Fieldmark Construction Ltd, amounting to N4.8 billion, as part of a crucial component of the state’s Urban Renewal Program that will significantly enhance the state’s transport infrastructure and service delivery.
Empowering Youths and Women
The Dauda Lawal administration has so far empowered 1,500 youths and women to reduce poverty and provide employment opportunities under the Zamfara Youth Sanitation Programme (ZAYOSAP). ZAYOSAP is an integral part of the urban renewal project designed to make Gusau and its environs hygienic, clean, and safe for residents.
Another landmark achievement of the administration is the implementation of environmental protection projects under the ACReSAL program and Ministry of Environment ecosystem. These include contracts for the procurement and installation of solar-powered boreholes in five communities and the construction of five earth dams to provide potable drinking water for people and animals, as well as irrigation.
Governor Dauda Lawal negotiated with the Kaduna Electricity Distribution Company (KAEDCO) to restore electricity supply to all government agencies, which had been without power for many years due to non-payment of N1.2 billion in electricity bills.
To further enhance good governance, Governor Dauda Lawal has recently signed an agreement with several development partners, including UNICEF, the World Bank, and the Melinda & Gates Foundation, and settled the ground rent for the Governor’s Lodges in Abuja and Kaduna.
Makama is a Counter Insurgency Expert and Security Analyst in the Lake Chad region.
Rebuilding Zamfara in a Complex Era – The Dauda Lawal Style
News
Plateau survivors recounts lynching as reprisals as reprisals fuel fresh killings
Plateau survivors recounts lynching as reprisals as reprisals fuel fresh killings
By: Zagazola Makama
A survivor of the recent roadside killings in Barkin Ladi Local Government Area of Plateau has narrated how five commuters from Jos North were killed after their vehicle was intercepted by suspected youths along the Nding axis.
The incident occurred hours after seven persons were reportedly killed in Ratatis community, Dorowa Babuje, by suspected armed Fulani bandits.
Sources confirmed that a passenger Opel Vectra conveying civilians was stopped at a road blockade mounted by suspected Berom youths. Four passengers were reportedly killed on the spot, while a fifth later died from injuries.
All the victims were identified as Hausa residents of Gangare in Jos North. They were said to be traders travelling to Pankshin for their businesses.

Abdulalim Ibrahim, one of the survivors, said the attackers demanded to know their identities before opening fire.
“We were heading to the market in Pankshin when we were stopped by the protesters and asked who we were. The driver tried to calm them and told them we were all one. But the protesters rejected. Suddenly, there was gunfire. One person sitting at the back seat was shot inside the car while four others were dragged out by the youths,” he said.
They dragged others out of the vehicle and began shooting at them. I immediately told the driver to drive off with speed and leave the scene. When we arrived in Mangu, we contacted our parents and family friends. We were advised to go to the nearest security outfit, where soldiers were attached to provide security for us.

When we later saw the victims, they had been brutally killed. Some were burnt, while others were mutilated. They were later evacuated to Barkin Ladi, where prayers were offered for them.
Muazu Saidu, Co-survivor, said Everything he said is true. We were all in that vehicle. The victims were innocent businessmen. One of them, Baba Karami Zakari, had just welcomed a newborn child. All of them have families.”
He stated that the victims included Uwaisu, Jubril, Zakari, Shamsu and Zubairu. They were businessmen. One of them, Baba Karami Zakari, just had a newborn child. They all had families,” he said.
Religious leaders have also appealed for calm. The Regional Chairman of the Church of Christ in Nations (COCIN) in Barkin Ladi, Rev. Ezekiel Dachomo, called on youths and community members to exercise restraint and avoid escalating tensions. Rev Dachomo also avoid speaking about the killing of the five traders whose only crimes was being caught in retaliatory or identity-driven violence.
The Commissioner of Police (COMPOL), Plateau State Police Command, visited key black spots across Jos North and held consultations with stakeholders, including the palace of Ujah Anaguta, Chairman of the Jos North Traditional Rulers Council. The police assured the royal father of their commitment to maintaining law and order and urged him to ensure stability within his domain. The COMPOL also engaged leadership of the Jos Central Mosque, the Executive Chairman of Jos North LGA, and other community leaders to prevent any breakdown of law and order.

Gov. Caleb Mutfwang strongly condemned the Dorowa Babuje killings, through the Commissioner for Information, Mrs Joyce Ramnap, describing them as “barbaric and senseless,” and directed security agencies to intensify operations to crack down on attackers.
However, his official statement did not specifically acknowledge the five commuters killed in the reprisal. Both incidents involved civilians. Both involved families. Yet public response has not appeared equally forceful.
When governments appear to condemn one set of killings more loudly than another, it reinforces the narrative that some lives matter more than others. In a state already fractured along ethnic and land-based fault lines, perception quickly becomes fuel. In Plateau, violence no longer erupts in isolation. It unfolds in patterns, attack, retaliation, silence, and then another burial.
Plateau’s crisis is no longer a simple farmer-herder conflict. It has mutated into two parallel but interconnected threats: Armed Fulani bandits who raid rural communities, burn homes and kill farmers to Local Militia-style who attack civilians based on identity and carry out targeted killing under the guise of community protection. Both are unlawful. Both are criminal. Both are banditry and both thrive in the absence of swift and visible justice.
The latest killings mirror previous incidents in Plateau where civilians were attacked following broader communal violence. Yet years of the same pattern of recurring violence, from Rukuba Road in 2021 to Mangu in 2025 and now Barkin Ladi in 2026, have produced more funerals than convictions. Victims and families continue to ask a simple question: who has been punished?
On Plateau roads, language, name, or perceived ethnic affiliation can determine survival. Innocent traders travelling to markets, students heading to weddings, worshippers returning from religious events, all become symbolic targets in a war they did not start.
When perpetrators are not publicly prosecuted, deterrence collapses. When local militia continue to carry out targeted killings without consequence, impunity becomes normalised. When reprisals are not unequivocally condemned, they are quietly rationalised. This is how identity becomes a death sentence.
Government inaction or even the perception of partiality does not calm such a situation. It complicates it. It hardens narratives. It emboldens extremists on all sides. Peace cannot be selective. Justice cannot be ethnic. Condemnation cannot be conditional.
If Plateau is to escape this recurring nightmare, the state must confront both armed bandits in the forests and militia from within its communities with equal firmness. Anything less will only deepen the crisis.
Plateau survivors recounts lynching as reprisals as reprisals fuel fresh killings
News
APC Leaders, Govs Recommit To Advancing President Tinubu’s Renewed Hope Agenda
APC Leaders, Govs Recommit To Advancing President Tinubu’s Renewed Hope Agenda
We’re shifting from stabilisation to acceleration in 2026, Says VP Shettima
Urges reconciliation, unity among party leaders to move Nigeria forward
By: Our Reporter
State governors on the platform of the governing All Progressives Congress (APC) and other leaders of the party have recommitted to boosting grassroots mobilisation in order to promote and advance the Renewed Hope Agenda of the administration of President Bola Ahmed Tinubu.

This is just as the Vice President, Senator Kashim Shettima, has said the Tinubu administration has shifted focus from stabilisation in 2025 to acceleration in 2026, with the N58.18 trillion 2026 budget anchoring the new phase.
The governors and other party leaders made the recommitment on Tuesday in Abuja during the PGF Renewed Hope Ambassadors Summit 2026 held at the State House Conference Centre of the Presidential Villa.
Senator Shettima who represented President Tinubu at the Summit told the party leaders, governors under the aegis of Progressive Governors’ Forum (PGF), and the Renewed Hope Ambassadors that the moment calls for reflection on the administration’s reforms, the sacrifices made and the responsibilities to translate vision into measurable impact for Nigerians.

“As we advance into 2026, our focus shifts from stabilisation to acceleration. The N58.18 trn budget shall anchor this new phase. A record capital expenditure, the largest allocation to national security in the history of our country and prudent revenue projections, we are scaling growth while strengthening resilience,” he said.
The Vice President noted that the administration’s landmark tax reforms were “introduced to protect the vulnerable, encourage enterprise and entrench transparency in public finance.”
He cited the recent executive order affecting remittances to the federation account, saying it “is designed to safeguard federation revenues, eliminate duplicative structures, curb waste and ensure that resources are responsibly managed for maximal national benefits.”
VP Shettima pointed out that from the onset, the Tinubu administration chose the path of honesty and discipline, confronting deep-seated structural distortions, even as he said the decision has “restored fiscal credibility, stabilised the economy and set the foundation for long term economic growth.
“Today, we are seeing clear signs that our reforms have began to yield results. Inflationary pressures are moderating, fuel prices are easing, our currency is strong and stable,” he stated.

Noting that the economy is picking up under President Tinubu, the Vice President said out of “the seven major investment decisions made in 2025 in Africa, five were drawn in Nigeria,” a development he said shows “the strength, viability and the promise of the Nigerian economy.”
He however observed that no reform can succeed without public understanding and participation, just as he identified the communication gap as “the strategic importance of the Renewed Hope Ambassadors.”
Reminding them of their function duty, the VP said, “This platform shall serve as the avenue for civic engagement. Ambassadors must explain why tough decisions had to be made and how they lead to jobs, security, enterprise, opportunities and a more stable future.
“They must counter misinformation with facts, replace rumour with evidence and ensure that Nigerians from across the country have access to the truth. They must also serve as the channel for feedback, bringing community concerns and lived experiences back to government.”
Senator Shettima tasked the Renewed Hope Ambassadors on wider outreach, saying they must “move beyond conference centres to the wards, markets, and campuses, across the country.
“This mission is about presence, truth and trust. Elections are not conducted on social media platforms, they conducted by Nigerians who will… This summit affirms our commitment to a shared future of promise and peace for all Nigerians. Together we will continue translating reforms into opportunities, policy into impact and sacrifice into renewed hope,” he added
Citing the situation in Benue State as an instance, the Vice President further stressed the need for reconciliation and unity among party leaders, urging them to mend fences and move their state forward.
“I want to use this special forum to make appeal to the SGF and Governor Alia to mend fences and move the state forward,” he stated.
Earlier, National Chairman of the APC, Prof. Nentawe Yilwatda, regretted that despite significant infrastructure projects delivered by the Tinubu administration and state governments, the party’s achievements had not been visible due to poor communication.
“Good governance without communication is invisible. I’ve visited many states. I’ve seen beautiful projects, beautiful things being done, but they’re invisible and not communicated,” he lamented.
Yilwatda stressed the need for effective communication, which he said is critical to translating governance achievements into political capital, explaining that it was the reason forestablishing the Renewed Hope Ambassadors structure.
In his address, Chairman of the Progressive Governors Forum and Director-General of the Renewed Hope Ambassadors, Governor Hope Uzodinma of Imo State, said stakeholders are on the ground to trigger a process that will unify the APC structure into a stronger and more united political family.
He assured that through the summit, stakeholders have chosen Nigeria’s long-term stability over short-term applause, necessitating patriotic and accurate communication of the current administration’s socio-economic development efforts thereby earning citizens’ trust at the grassroots.
“Lack of citizen understanding creates perception gaps,” he said, noting, for instance, that food prices have drastically reduced in the markets, while Nigeria has moved away from chronic oil and gas underproduction, citing the Dangote Refinery and other indigenous firms.
Also, Secretary to Government of the Federation, Senator George Akume, advised authorities to allow members of the public to “add value” to what the party is doing across the nation.
For his part, Minister of Budget and Economic Planning, Atiku Bagudu, said the Renewed Hope Agenda is a message that is unifying the nation.
The Minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister of the Economy, Wale Edun, on behalf of members of the Federal Executive Council, expressed heartfelt appreciation to President Tinubu for choosing them as part of his team.
Looking forward to the upcoming second term, he said they are delighted to continue working tirelessly to ensure that the next chapter of the reforms under the Renewed Hope Agenda are even more transformative, thereby creating more jobs and attracting more investments into the nation’s economy
APC Leaders, Govs Recommit To Advancing President Tinubu’s Renewed Hope Agenda
News
Experts Urge Evidence-Based Energy Reforms as Nigeria’s Transition Debate Intensifies
Experts Urge Evidence-Based Energy Reforms as Nigeria’s Transition Debate Intensifies
By: Michael Mike
Energy policy experts have called for stronger data-driven decision making in Nigeria’s energy transition process, warning that ambitious climate targets must be balanced with economic realities, job security, and the country’s persistent energy access challenges.
The call was made during a national policy dialogue where researchers presented findings on the economic, environmental, and political implications of different energy transition pathways for Nigeria.
At the event, the Stakeholders Research Workshop on Supporting Just Transition in Nigeria, organized on Tuesday in Abuja by the Ministry of Environment and Society for Planet and Prosperity (SPP), analysts said the study was designed to help guide policymaking by providing empirical insights into how various decarbonisation strategies could impact growth, employment, and emissions.

President of the Society for Planet and Prosperity, Professor Chukwumerije Okereke, said Nigeria’s existing commitments under its Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) and Energy Transition Plan (ETP) are ambitious but require stronger technical validation before full implementation.
He noted that current projections suggesting up to 85 percent adoption of electric vehicles by 2060 and large-scale solar electricity generation of about 150 gigawatts may be difficult to achieve under current infrastructure and investment conditions.
“Policy targets are not enough on their own,” Okereke said. “What matters is how these targets will be achieved and what the economic and social consequences will be.”
He added that the research explores multiple transition scenarios, including gas-centered development, renewable-focused expansion, and hybrid energy strategies combining both gas and renewable technologies.
According to him, a balanced transition pathway may be more realistic for Nigeria, allowing the country to gradually reduce emissions while still leveraging its vast natural gas resources to support industrial growth and electricity access.
Researchers also emphasized that Nigeria’s transition strategy must address energy poverty, noting that millions of households still lack reliable electricity supply. They said distributed renewable energy systems, particularly solar mini-grids, could play a crucial role in expanding electricity access to rural and underserved communities.
Energy economists involved in the study explained that their analysis combined energy modelling with macroeconomic projections to assess how different policy choices would influence GDP growth, employment creation, and carbon emissions.
Senior Research Fellow, ODI Global, Dr. Timothy Kelsall said the research does not attempt to predict future outcomes but instead evaluates possible consequences of policy decisions.
“We are not predicting the future,” Kelsall said. “We are showing policymakers what could happen under different scenarios so they can make informed decisions.”
He explained that the study models three major transition pathways — gas-focused transition, renewable-dominated transition, and hybrid energy development — noting that each pathway would create different economic and political impacts across sectors.
Analysts also stressed that energy transition policies must consider Nigeria’s political economy realities, as policy reforms often create winners and losers across industries and interest groups.
Experts warned that abrupt policy changes could trigger economic disruptions, particularly in regions and sectors heavily dependent on fossil fuel revenues. Instead, they recommended a gradual transition supported by investment incentives, industrial development policies, and workforce reskilling programs.
The research also examined the use of savings from fuel subsidy reforms, noting that simply removing subsidies without clear reinvestment strategies would not automatically translate into development gains.
Stakeholders said subsidy savings could be redirected toward renewable energy infrastructure, social protection programs, and industrial development initiatives that support economic diversification.
While Nigeria continues to depend heavily on oil and gas exports for foreign exchange earnings, analysts said diversification efforts remain critical for long-term economic stability.
However, they stressed that natural gas could play a transitional role in supporting electricity generation and industrial expansion while renewable energy capacity continues to grow.
Researchers urged stronger collaboration between government institutions, private sector investors, and civil society organisations to ensure successful implementation of transition policies.
As Nigeria navigates its climate and energy future, experts say the country must pursue a pragmatic energy strategy that balances environmental protection with economic growth and improved access to reliable electricity for its growing population.
Experts Urge Evidence-Based Energy Reforms as Nigeria’s Transition Debate Intensifies
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