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The Mirage of Great-Power Protection: Lessons for the Sahel from Iran, Syria and Venezuela

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The Mirage of Great-Power Protection: Lessons for the Sahel from Iran, Syria and Venezuela

By Oumarou Sanou

The world appears once again on edge. Tensions in the Middle East involving Iran, Israel and the United States have revived familiar questions about the limits of power, alliances, and survival in an increasingly volatile global order. Yet beyond the immediate theatre of conflict lies a deeper lesson; one that Africa, particularly the junta-led states of the Sahel, would do well to reflect upon.

Recent events in Syria and the mounting pressures faced by countries like Iran and Venezuela demonstrate a hard geopolitical truth: reliance on great powers for protection can often prove illusory. When crises escalate or strategic calculations change, even the most vocal allies may offer little more than rhetorical solidarity.

This is a reality that resonates strongly in today’s Sahel, where Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger, the core of the Alliance of Sahel States (AES), have pivoted sharply toward Moscow while distancing themselves from traditional Western partners and regional institutions such as ECOWAS.

There is nothing inherently wrong with sovereign nations pursuing partnerships with global powers. States must engage the world pragmatically to advance their interests. The danger arises when such alignments become ideological crusades that corner countries into rigid geopolitical camps. History suggests that when great-power rivalries intensify, smaller states risk becoming pawns rather than partners.

The experiences of Iran and Venezuela offer a cautionary example. Both countries have positioned themselves as defiant challengers to Western influence, often invoking anti-imperialist rhetoric to consolidate domestic authority. Yet when sanctions tightened and internal crises deepened, the much-touted backing of powerful allies such as Russia and China proved limited in practice. Diplomatic statements and symbolic gestures rarely translate into decisive rescue when the strategic costs are high.

In many respects, the Sahel is becoming the newest chessboard in the unfolding rivalry between Russia and the West. The region’s fragile states, struggling with terrorism, economic distress, and weak institutions, now find themselves at the intersection of competing geopolitical interests.

For the juntas governing Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger, the embrace of Moscow has been framed as a break from Western paternalism. Yet the strategic risks of relying too heavily on a single external partner are significant. Unlike Iran and Venezuela, which possess vast oil resources that cushion the impact of sanctions and economic isolation, the Sahelian economies lack such buffers.

The limits of anti-Western posturing are therefore far sharper in this context. Iran and Venezuela at least had economic leverage and decades of state infrastructure before confronting global pressure. The Sahel’s military regimes do not enjoy similar advantages. Betting national stability on geopolitical confrontation without economic resilience could prove far more destabilising.

The presence of Russian-linked security contractors, from Wagner’s earlier operations to successor entities such as Redut, illustrates another dimension of the challenge. These deployments offer short-term tactical support but rarely substitute for strong national armies, effective governance, and regional cooperation. Security outsourced to foreign actors tends to be transactional rather than transformational.

Yet the deeper issue goes beyond any single partnership. Africa’s geopolitical dilemma is not simply about Russia, the West, or China. It reflects a recurring pattern in which African states seek external protectors rather than invest in internal strength.

From colonial dependency to Cold War alignments and today’s renewed great-power competition, the continent has often oscillated between competing patrons. Rejecting Western influence only to embrace Russian or Chinese influence does not constitute genuine liberation; it merely replaces one form of dependency with another.

What Africa needs instead is strategic autonomy. For the Sahel, this moment of geopolitical turbulence could become an opportunity to rethink its development trajectory. Strengthening governance, rebuilding public institutions, and addressing the root causes of insecurity: corruption, marginalisation, and economic exclusion, would offer far more durable stability than reliance on external military support.

Coups, after all, are symptoms of governance failure, not solutions to it. The region’s demographic reality makes this urgency even greater. With one of the youngest populations in the world, the Sahel cannot afford the economic stagnation that often accompanies geopolitical isolation. If instability persists, the consequences will be felt not only within the region but across West Africa and beyond through migration, economic disruption, and expanding insecurity.

A stronger African security architecture is therefore essential. The limitations exposed in ECOWAS responses, the underutilisation of the African Union’s standby mechanisms, and the fragility of regional intelligence cooperation all point to the same conclusion: Africa must build more credible collective security systems.

Equally important is the need for an assertive but balanced African foreign policy. The Sahel’s pivot toward Russia is partly a reaction against perceived Western paternalism. Yet the answer to unequal partnerships is not to substitute one patron for another. It is to negotiate from a position of confidence and independence.

Africa should engage with all global actors: East and West alike, in line with clear national and regional interests. Trade, investment, technology transfer, and security cooperation are welcome from any partner that respects African sovereignty. What should be avoided is ideological alignment that turns African states into frontline proxies in someone else’s strategic contest.

The Sahel today stands at a crossroads. Its choices will shape not only its own future but also the broader trajectory of governance and security across West Africa. If there is one lesson from Iran, Venezuela, Syria and other states caught in great-power rivalries, it is this: external patrons may offer support, but they rarely guarantee salvation. Therefore, Africa’s long-term stability will depend less on the promises of distant powers and more on the strength of its own institutions, leadership, and collective resolve.

Oumarou Sanou is a social critic, Pan-African observer and researcher focusing on governance, security, and political transitions in the Sahel. He writes on geopolitics, regional stability, and African leadership dynamics.

Contact: sanououmarou386@gmail.com

The Mirage of Great-Power Protection: Lessons for the Sahel from Iran, Syria and Venezuela

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Nigerian Children in Crisis ‘Fiscally Invisible’ as New Report Exposes Funding Failure

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Nigerian Children in Crisis ‘Fiscally Invisible’ as New Report Exposes Funding Failure

…Study warns millions of children caught in conflict, displacement and hunger are being overlooked in government budgets; journalists launch accountability network to push for reforms

By: Michael Mike

Nigeria’s youngest and most vulnerable children are being failed by a financing system that does not even recognise them in public budgets, a new report has warned, raising fresh concerns over the country’s worsening humanitarian and human capital crisis.

The report, Financing Early Childhood Development in Crisis (ECDiC) in Nigeria: From Fiscal Invisibility to Child-Level Results, released in Abuja on Wednesday by the Moving Minds Alliance (MMA) in partnership with Whole Child Advisors, paints a grim picture of how children aged between zero and eight years living in conflict, displacement, climate emergencies and poverty are largely excluded from government financing despite overwhelming evidence that the early years determine a child’s lifelong prospects.

According to the report, Nigeria’s Human Capital Index stands at just 0.36, meaning a child born today is expected to achieve only 36 per cent of his or her productive potential because of poor health, inadequate nutrition and weak learning outcomes.

The findings come at a time when Nigeria continues to grapple with one of Africa’s largest humanitarian emergencies. Insurgency in the North-East, widespread banditry and communal violence across the North-West and North-Central, alongside climate-induced disasters and economic hardship, have displaced millions of people and disrupted access to healthcare, nutrition and education for children.

The report estimates that 4.9 million children require life-saving humanitarian assistance, while 3.6 million people were forcibly displaced in 2025. It also notes that about 31 million Nigerian children are under the age of five, with between 33.8 and 40 per cent suffering from stunting, an indication of chronic malnutrition that permanently affects brain development and future productivity.

It further revealed that severe acute malnutrition cases surged to about 1.8 million children in 2025, representing a 69 per cent increase over previous estimates, while Nigeria’s under-five mortality remains among the highest globally at 105 deaths per 1,000 live births.

Despite these alarming indicators, the report found that Early Childhood Development in Crisis (ECDiC) has no dedicated budget line in either federal or state budgets, effectively rendering vulnerable children “fiscally invisible.”

The analysis identified five major weaknesses responsible for the financing gap: the absence of dedicated budget lines, poor implementation of approved budgets, fragmented funding channels, recurrent expenditure that crowds out essential child services, and an uneven distribution of humanitarian resources heavily concentrated in Borno, Adamawa and Yobe, leaving crisis-hit communities in the North-West and North-Central with inadequate support.

The report noted that less than five per cent of education spending benefits early childhood or emergency learning programmes.

It concluded that the existing financing framework prioritises institutions rather than children’s actual needs.

“The system is built to fund structures, not children,” the report stated, warning that Nigeria cannot realise its human capital ambitions without creating a financing architecture capable of delivering predictable resources directly to frontline services supporting young children in emergencies.

To reverse the trend, the report recommended seven urgent reforms, including establishing a federal policy framework for Early Childhood Development in Crisis, introducing dedicated budget tags across federal and state budgets, protecting releases of funds, simplifying financing channels, expanding results-based financing tied to measurable child outcomes, redistributing resources according to vulnerability rather than geography, and creating a blended investment mechanism involving government, humanitarian agencies and philanthropic organisations.

Speaking at the launch, the Nigeria Early Childhood Development in Crisis Coalition Coordinator, Arome Agenyi, stressed that the future of millions of Nigerian children depends on decisions taken today.

He said: “Behind every successful adult is an early childhood story. The question is not whether children are developing; they are. The question is whether they are developing to their full potential. In this regard, the stories journalists choose to tell today can shape the policies, investments, and public actions that determine the future of millions of Nigerian children, especially those in crisis contexts across Nigeria.”

As part of efforts to sustain public attention on the issue, the Moving Minds Alliance also inaugurated the Nigerian chapter of the Reporters for Early Childhood in Humanitarian Crisis (REACH) Network, bringing together journalists committed to evidence-based reporting on children affected by humanitarian emergencies.

Global Co-Chair of the REACH Network, Mojeed Alabi, said children who are invisible in government budgets often become invisible in politics and public discourse.

“When children living through conflict, displacement, climate shocks and economic hardship become fiscally invisible, they also risk becoming politically invisible,” Alabi said.

“The launch of the REACH Network in Nigeria is a commitment by journalists to change that narrative. Through sustained, evidence-based reporting, we will amplify the voices of the youngest and most vulnerable children, hold leaders accountable for their commitments, and ensure that early childhood development remains at the heart of public policy and national development.”

Also speaking, Interim Director and Co-Chair of the Moving Minds Alliance, Dr. Katie Murphy, described the report as the clearest roadmap yet for reforming child financing in Nigeria.

“This new report gives us something we haven’t had before: a clear picture of where Nigeria’s investment in its youngest children in crisis is falling short, and exactly what it will take to close that gap,” she said.

Murphy added that the planned Act for Early Years Financing Summit in 2027 would seek commitments from governments, donors and development partners to move from fragmented financing to a system that delivers resources directly to children.

The coalition hopes that by 2028, both federal and state governments will have introduced dedicated ECDiC budget tags, released at least 70 per cent of allocated funds annually, and achieved measurable improvements in child development outcomes across local government areas.

For child development advocates, the report is more than a financial audit; it is a warning that unless Nigeria changes how it invests in children during their earliest years, particularly those growing up amid conflict and displacement, the country risks entrenching poverty, inequality and lost human potential for generations.

Nigerian Children in Crisis ‘Fiscally Invisible’ as New Report Exposes Funding Failure

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Establishment of Army Depot in South-East Reflects FG’s Commitment to National Unity, Security and inclusiveness– COAS

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Establishment of Army Depot in South-East Reflects FG’s Commitment to National Unity, Security and inclusiveness– COAS

By Zagazola Makama

The Chief of Army Staff (COAS), Lt.-Gen. Waidi Shaibu, has said that the establishment of the Depot Nigerian Army in Amasiri-Edda, in Ebonyi State is a clear demonstration of the Federal Government’s commitment to national security, inclusiveness, national integration and balanced development across the country.

Shaibu made the remarks while addressing dignitaries during activities marking the inauguration of the newly established military training institution in Abakaliki, Ebonyi State.

According to the Army Chief, the depot, which is the first primary recruit training institution of the Nigerian Army in the South-East geopolitical zone, represents a strategic investment by President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s administration in strengthening national security and promoting equitable distribution of critical national institutions.

“The establishment of this depot reflects the Federal Government’s commitment to national security, inclusiveness, national integration and balanced development,” Shaibu said.

He described the inauguration of the facility as a landmark achievement in the ongoing transformation of the Nigerian Army under President Tinubu, noting that it would significantly enhance the Army’s capacity to train professionally competent and combat-ready soldiers.

The COAS disclosed that the first set of recruits trained at the new depot would graduate the following day, describing the event as a historic milestone not only for the institution but also for the evolution of recruit training within the Nigerian Army.

“Their graduation will not only mark the successful completion of basic military training but will also usher in a new chapter in the evolution of recruit training in the Nigerian Army,” he said.

Shaibu explained that since its establishment, the depot had steadily developed into a modern recruit training institution designed to produce disciplined, professional and capable soldiers in line with the Nigerian Army’s transformation agenda and long-term strategic vision.

He said the facility forms part of the Federal Government’s broader efforts to modernise the Armed Forces and expand military capacity to address Nigeria’s dynamic security environment.

The Army Chief expressed profound appreciation to President Tinubu for approving the establishment of the institution and providing the necessary resources for its successful implementation.

He noted that the new depot would not only improve military training capacity but also strengthen the strategic importance of the South-East within Nigeria’s security architecture.

According to him, locating the institution in Ebonyi State underscores the government’s determination to ensure that all parts of the country benefit from national development initiatives while fostering greater national cohesion.

Shaibu also commended Ebonyi State Governor Francis Nwifuru for his unwavering support towards the establishment and successful take-off of the depot.

He said the state government provided accommodation, logistics and other essential support that contributed significantly to the successful training of the pioneer batch of recruits.

“From facilitating the historic groundbreaking ceremony to providing sustained support for this institution, the governor has demonstrated remarkable patriotism and an enduring commitment to national security,” he said.

The COAS further described the Government and people of Ebonyi State, as well as the entire South-East, as indispensable partners in the establishment and growth of the institution.

He also acknowledged the contributions of traditional rulers, political leaders, religious leaders, community leaders and residents of the state for creating a peaceful and conducive environment for the depot to thrive.

Shaibu reaffirmed the Nigerian Army’s commitment to deepening its partnership with host communities and stakeholders, stressing that sustained collaboration between the military and the people remains critical to enhancing national security and maintaining lasting peace.

According to him, the state’s sustained support demonstrates a strong commitment to national security, peace and development.

The Army Chief further commended traditional rulers, community leaders, members of the State Development Committee, political and religious leaders, and other stakeholders for fostering a peaceful environment that enabled the successful establishment of the Depot.

He reaffirmed that the Nigerian Army values its partnership with the state and pledged to continue strengthening collaboration in pursuit of improved security and national development.

The COAS also paid tribute to distinguished retired senior military officers from the region for their contributions to the growth and development of the Nigerian Army.

The establishment of the Depot Nigerian Army in Ebonyi is widely regarded as one of the landmark military infrastructure projects under the Tinubu administration, aimed at expanding recruit training capacity while promoting inclusiveness, national integration and balanced development across Nigeria’s six geopolitical zones.

Establishment of Army Depot in South-East Reflects FG’s Commitment to National Unity, Security and inclusiveness– COAS

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Troops, CJTF Arrest Suspected ISWAP Informant Accused of Identifying Kidnap Targets in Borno

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Troops, CJTF Arrest Suspected ISWAP Informant Accused of Identifying Kidnap Targets in Borno

By Zagazola Makama

Operatives of the Military Intelligence Brigade (MIB) under Sector 3 of Operation HADIN KAI, working in collaboration with the Civilian Joint Task Force (CJTF), have arrested a suspected Islamic State West Africa Province (ISWAP) informant in Monguno Local Government Area of Borno State.

Intelligence sources told Zagazola Makama that the suspect, identified as Isa Janyu, 30, was tracked and apprehended at about 7:20 p.m. on July 4 during a targeted intelligence-led operation at Kasuwan Shanu in Monguno town.

According to the sources, items recovered from the suspect included a Tecno mobile phone, a knife, a comb, a mirror, and ₦10,000 in cash.

Preliminary investigation revealed that the suspect is a native of Arianna Mai Massallachi Village in Kukawa Local Government Area and allegedly specialised in identifying wealthy residents for ISWAP elements to facilitate kidnapping operations for ransom.

The suspect is currently in the custody of the Headquarters Sector 3 Military Intelligence Brigade for further investigation and other necessary actions.

Military sources said the arrest was part of ongoing intelligence-driven operations aimed at dismantling terrorist support networks and disrupting the activities of informants providing critical information to insurgent groups in the North-East.

They added that although the general security situation across the theatre remains relatively calm, it is still unpredictable, with troops maintaining a high level of operational readiness and sustained offensive pressure against terrorist elements.

Troops, CJTF Arrest Suspected ISWAP Informant Accused of Identifying Kidnap Targets in Borno

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