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Tuareg Rebels and JNIM: A New Strategic Alliance in Mali?

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Tuareg Rebels and JNIM: A New Strategic Alliance in Mali?

By: Zagazola Makama

Mali stands at a critical turning point as fresh negotiations between the Tuareg rebels of northern Mali and the al-Qaeda-affiliated Jama’at Nasr al-Islam wal Muslimin (JNIM) gain momentum. According to sources close to both groups, these talks represent a significant shift in strategy that could fundamentally reshape the security and political landscape of the Sahel.

For the Tuareg rebels, these negotiations are a response to Mali’s recent national consultations, which called for dialogue with jihadist groups but excluded northern armed factions from the process. Additionally, Tuareg leaders argue that grassroots communities who have been caught in the crossfire of the ongoing conflict are pushing for a settlement to avoid further bloodshed.

On the other hand, the rebels say they are keen to avoid the mistakes of 2012, when the Tuareg-led National Movement for the Liberation of Azawad (MNLA) initially seized control of northern Mali, only to be overpowered by jihadist forces, leading to a rapid escalation of violence and the subsequent 2013 French military intervention.

A Shift in JNIM’s Strategy

A key factor encouraging the Tuareg rebels to engage in talks is the shifting approach of JNIM itself. Over the years, the group has evolved in its tactics, messaging, and governance strategy. Unlike the extremist brutality displayed in 2012, JNIM has refined its policies, making it a more pragmatic and structured insurgency.

According to sources close to the Tuareg rebels, JNIM’s leadership began reassessing its position following the U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan. The Taliban’s ability to consolidate power while maintaining Afghanistan’s territorial integrity served as a model. Additionally, recent jihadist dynamics in Syria further influenced JNIM’s approach, leading to a reconsideration of its long-term objectives in Mali.

Statements from key JNIM figures, including Amadou Koufa, leader of Katiba Macina, and Jafar Dicko, head of JNIM operations in Burkina Faso, indicate a growing willingness to compromise. Their recent declarations have emphasized political and governance issues rather than outright military conquest.

Most notably, a recent JNIM communiqué framed the military juntas in the region as obstacles to regional stability. The statement called for international intervention against these governments, signaling that JNIM sees an opportunity to reposition itself as a legitimate actor rather than a purely insurgent force.

This convergence of interests between Tuareg rebels and JNIM has laid the groundwork for negotiations, with both sides willing to soften their positions for mutual benefit.

Key Points of Negotiation

JNIM sources have confirmed that discussions are ongoing, with a primary focus on governance and the role of Sharia law. Historically, one of the main points of contention between the two factions has been JNIM’s strict interpretation of Islamic law, which led to the breakdown of their alliance in 2012.

However, the current negotiations propose a new governance model in which Sharia law would be implemented at the local level, but administered by community-based religious authorities rather than JNIM operatives. This compromise, according to sources, has been accepted by JNIM’s leadership.

Another major shift is JNIM’s perspective on Mali’s territorial integrity. Rather than supporting the Tuareg rebels’ long-standing push for an independent Azawad, JNIM has reportedly argued that regional and international actors would be more likely to tolerate an Islamic governance structure within a unified Mali rather than outright secession.

JNIM’s ability to convince Tuareg leaders to focus on governing northern Mali rather than seeking full independence represents a major ideological shift. The jihadist group is prepared to support Tuareg fighters in taking control of key territories, but with the understanding that these areas would be governed under an Islamic framework rather than an independent Tuareg state.

A New Governance Model for Northern Mali?

Sources close to JNIM say that if the alliance moves forward, the group is ready to coordinate and administer territories alongside Tuareg rebels. However, lessons from the 2012 conflict have prompted a change in strategy.

Rather than raising the black flag of al-Qaeda over captured cities a move that led to international military intervention in the past—JNIM plans to allow Tuareg governance structures to manage administrative affairs. This means that while JNIM would retain influence, it would avoid direct control over urban areas, instead allowing local Tuareg leadership to take the forefront.

Such a strategy could serve multiple purposes: Reducing the risk of foreign military intervention by keeping governance in the hands of local Tuareg leaders, JNIM would present a less overt threat to international powers. Legitimizing its role in Mali’s political landscape rather than being seen purely as an extremist group, JNIM could position itself as a political and security partner in the region. Avoiding the mistakes of 2012 The rapid downfall of the Tuareg rebellion in 2012 was largely due to its inability to maintain control. By working together with the rebels rather than sidelining them, JNIM aims to ensure a more sustainable presence.

The Question of Al-Qaeda Affiliation

One of the most sensitive aspects of the negotiations revolves around JNIM’s relationship with al-Qaeda’s central command. According to sources, there is ongoing internal debate about whether the group should formally distance itself from al-Qaeda.

For JNIM leaders, the question is not just ideological but also strategic. Some within the group believe that dissociating from al-Qaeda could open doors to direct negotiations with Western governments. Others argue that such a move would require religious justification, possibly linked to a major political development such as the formal independence of Azawad or the collapse of the Malian government in Bamako.

Interestingly, sources indicate that JNIM is more willing to negotiate its future with Western powers directly rather than through Tuareg intermediaries. The concern within JNIM is that Tuareg leaders could use any potential al-Qaeda split as leverage in their own diplomatic engagements with France and other international actors.

Conclusion: A Game-Changer for Mali?

If these negotiations result in a formal agreement, the implications for Mali and the wider Sahel could be profound. A coordinated Tuareg-JNIM alliance would not only reshape local power dynamics but could also alter the trajectory of jihadist movements across West Africa.

The shift in JNIM’s strategy from ideological extremism to pragmatic governance signals a broader recalibration of jihadist operations in the region. Whether this shift leads to long-term stability or another round of conflict remains to be seen.

What is clear, however, is that Mali’s security landscape is on the brink of another transformation one that could redefine the balance of power in the Sahel for years to come.

Zagazola Makama is a Counter Insurgency Expert and Security Analyst in the Lake Chad Region

Tuareg Rebels and JNIM: A New Strategic Alliance in Mali?

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Berom militia kill Fulani herder in Riyom as tit-for-tat violence escalates in Plateau

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Berom militia kill Fulani herder in Riyom as tit-for-tat violence escalates in Plateau

By: Zagazola Makama

Abubakar Hababe, a 40-year-old Fulani herder, was on April 5 found dead after an attack in Riyom Local Government Area of Plateau State, in what appears to be a reprisal attack in continuation of the tit for tat across affected communities.

The latest incident occurred at about 8:30 a.m., when troops deployed at Rim village responded to a distress call of an attack between Tanjol and Rim communities. On arrival, security personnel discovered the lifeless body of one Abubakar Hababe, 40, in an open field.

Community sources alleged that the victim, a Fulani herder, was attacked in what is believed to be a reprisal by suspected Berom Militia, following earlier killings in the area.

The development is the latest in a string of violent incidents that have heightened tensions across Riyom and neighbouring local government areas.

Investigations indicate that the attack may be linked to the killing of two miners at an illegal mining site in Rim village, where armed men suspected to be Fulani bandits had earlier stormed the area, killing victims and triggering outrage within the host community.

Zagazola report that the pattern reflects a sustained cycle of retaliatory violence that has continued to escalate across Plateau.

On April 3, troops responding to a distress call in Sabongida village, Jos South Local Government Area, recovered the body of a 30-year-old herder identified as Shafiyu, who had been killed in the bush under unclear circumstances.

Later the same day, gunmen attacked an illegal mining site in Gyel village, Riyom LGA, killing three miners, including one Samuel Davou, while several others fled.

Earlier on March 25, the body of a Fulani boy, Abdullahi Mohammed, was discovered in a shallow grave in Mangu Local Government Area, sparking tension in the area.

On the same day, reports also indicated destruction of irrigation farmlands in Riyom, an incident attributed to herders, which further strained relations between farming and pastoral communities.

On March 28, a prominent Fulani leader, Alhaji Bilyaminu Julde, the Ardo of Gindiri in Barkin Ladi LGA, was assassinated at his residence by gunmen, an incident that significantly escalated tensions.

That same day, farmlands in Tahoss village, Riyom LGA, were reportedly destroyed by stray cattle, further deepening hostilities.

By April 2, violence had spread to Bokkos LGA, where troops foiled an attack by suspected armed herders following clashes with vigilantes over grazing disputes, leaving one vigilante injured.

On April 3, additional incidents were reported in Barkin Ladi, where troops recovered suspected rustled cattle, while another Fulani youth was reportedly killed in Riyom in a separate isolated attack.

Security presence has since been intensified across the affected areas, with troops conducting patrols and engaging community leaders to prevent further escalation.

Authorities have urged residents to remain calm and refrain from reprisals, warning that the persistent cycle of attacks and counter-attacks continues to threaten peace and stability in the state.

Security forces said Investigations into the latest killing are ongoing, with efforts underway to apprehend those responsible.

Berom militia kill Fulani herder in Riyom as tit-for-tat violence escalates in Plateau

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Political Landscape Shifts as Yobe South Mobilizes for 2027 Elections Amid Marginalization Concerns

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Senator Ibrahim Mohammed Bomai

Political Landscape Shifts as Yobe South Mobilizes for 2027 Elections Amid Marginalization Concerns

By: Michael Mike

As the 2027 general elections approach, political activities in Yobe South Senatorial District—comprising Potiskum, Fika, Nangere, and Fune Local Government Areas—are gaining momentum. The developments reflect growing concerns about resilience, inclusion, and longstanding marginalization within the region.

Renowned as the food basket of Yobe State, Yobe South is home to a predominantly agrarian population known for its hard work, adaptability, and entrepreneurial spirit. Over the years, many residents have diversified beyond agriculture, pursuing business opportunities across Nigeria rather than relying solely on government employment.

A concerned citizen of the district, Musa Abdullahi Mai Biredi, noted that despite these contributions and a relatively strong educational base, Yobe South has experienced persistent political marginalization since Nigeria’s return to democratic rule in 1999. According to him, political dominance has largely remained within Yobe East Senatorial Zone, often associated with a single dominant ethnic group, thereby sidelining other communities within the state.

“This persistent imbalance raises serious concerns about equity and representation, as the interests of diverse communities continue to receive limited attention,” he stated.

Attention is now turning to Senator Ibrahim Mohammed Bomai, whose potential candidacy is being viewed by many as a symbol of hope for more inclusive representation. His emergence is seen as a challenge to the entrenched political structure, though not without reported resistance. Allegations of intimidation by certain political actors have surfaced, raising concerns about the fairness of the democratic process and the ability of candidates from Yobe South to compete on equal footing.

Meanwhile, there are indications that many constituents in Yobe South are aligning with President Bola Ahmed Tinubu and the All Progressives Congress (APC), signaling a desire for change and stronger political inclusion. Variations in voting patterns across the state further reflect underlying dissatisfaction, which could drive a significant political shift if voters organize effectively and support candidates who genuinely represent their interests.

As Yobe State moves closer to the 2027 elections, the issues of equity, justice, and inclusive governance will remain central to political discourse. Addressing the concerns of marginalization in Yobe South is critical to ensuring balanced representation and strengthening democratic values across the state.

Ultimately, the resolve of the electorate to rally behind credible and people-focused leadership will play a decisive role in shaping the future political landscape of Yobe State.

Political Landscape Shifts as Yobe South Mobilizes for 2027 Elections Amid Marginalization Concerns

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FG Directs MDAs to Halt New Policies Pending Full RIA Compliance

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FG Directs MDAs to Halt New Policies Pending Full RIA Compliance

By: Michael Mike

The Federal Government has directed all Ministries, Departments and Agencies (MDAs) to suspend the introduction and rollout of new policies, regulations, or major regulatory changes until full compliance with the Regulatory Impact Analysis (RIA) Framework is achieved.

The directive, issued by the Director General of the Presidential Enabling Business Environment Council (PEBEC), Princess Zahrah Mustapha Audu, is part of efforts to strengthen regulatory quality, ensure policy coherence, and improve the ease of doing business in Nigeria.

According to the statement, the RIA Framework, which was formally implemented in January 2025, requires that all new policies or amendments introduced after the date must undergo review and approval in line with its provisions.

She noted that the framework has already been circulated to MDAs by the Office of the Secretary to the Government of the Federation and is also accessible on the PEBEC website. MDAs are therefore expected to familiarize themselves with the framework and align their policy development processes accordingly.

Audu emphasized that while the government remains committed to working collaboratively with regulatory institutions, no new reform or policy would be allowed to proceed without being backed by clear and verifiable evidence.

She explained that the directive aims to prevent policy shocks that could negatively affect businesses, investors and citizens, eliminate inconsistencies and frequent policy reversals, and institutionalize evidence-based policymaking across government.

The directive also seeks to enhance transparency, improve predictability, and boost stakeholder confidence in public policies, while ensuring adequate engagement to minimize resistance prior to implementation.

Consequently, all MDAs have been instructed to suspend any planned policy rollouts that have not yet been implemented, ensure that new policy proposals are supported by comprehensive RIA and necessary approvals, and integrate the RIA process into their internal policy formulation procedures.

They are also required to undertake structured and inclusive stakeholder engagement as part of policy development to improve acceptance and implementation outcomes.

The PEBEC boss added that MDAs can access the RIA Framework through its website or seek technical support from the council’s secretariat.

She, however, noted that exceptions would only be granted in cases of urgent national interest, subject to appropriate approval.

Audu stressed that cooperation from all MDAs is crucial to building a stable, consistent and business-friendly regulatory environment capable of driving sustainable economic growth and boosting investor confidence.

FG Directs MDAs to Halt New Policies Pending Full RIA Compliance

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