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Tuareg Rebels and JNIM: A New Strategic Alliance in Mali?

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Tuareg Rebels and JNIM: A New Strategic Alliance in Mali?

By: Zagazola Makama

Mali stands at a critical turning point as fresh negotiations between the Tuareg rebels of northern Mali and the al-Qaeda-affiliated Jama’at Nasr al-Islam wal Muslimin (JNIM) gain momentum. According to sources close to both groups, these talks represent a significant shift in strategy that could fundamentally reshape the security and political landscape of the Sahel.

For the Tuareg rebels, these negotiations are a response to Mali’s recent national consultations, which called for dialogue with jihadist groups but excluded northern armed factions from the process. Additionally, Tuareg leaders argue that grassroots communities who have been caught in the crossfire of the ongoing conflict are pushing for a settlement to avoid further bloodshed.

On the other hand, the rebels say they are keen to avoid the mistakes of 2012, when the Tuareg-led National Movement for the Liberation of Azawad (MNLA) initially seized control of northern Mali, only to be overpowered by jihadist forces, leading to a rapid escalation of violence and the subsequent 2013 French military intervention.

A Shift in JNIM’s Strategy

A key factor encouraging the Tuareg rebels to engage in talks is the shifting approach of JNIM itself. Over the years, the group has evolved in its tactics, messaging, and governance strategy. Unlike the extremist brutality displayed in 2012, JNIM has refined its policies, making it a more pragmatic and structured insurgency.

According to sources close to the Tuareg rebels, JNIM’s leadership began reassessing its position following the U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan. The Taliban’s ability to consolidate power while maintaining Afghanistan’s territorial integrity served as a model. Additionally, recent jihadist dynamics in Syria further influenced JNIM’s approach, leading to a reconsideration of its long-term objectives in Mali.

Statements from key JNIM figures, including Amadou Koufa, leader of Katiba Macina, and Jafar Dicko, head of JNIM operations in Burkina Faso, indicate a growing willingness to compromise. Their recent declarations have emphasized political and governance issues rather than outright military conquest.

Most notably, a recent JNIM communiqué framed the military juntas in the region as obstacles to regional stability. The statement called for international intervention against these governments, signaling that JNIM sees an opportunity to reposition itself as a legitimate actor rather than a purely insurgent force.

This convergence of interests between Tuareg rebels and JNIM has laid the groundwork for negotiations, with both sides willing to soften their positions for mutual benefit.

Key Points of Negotiation

JNIM sources have confirmed that discussions are ongoing, with a primary focus on governance and the role of Sharia law. Historically, one of the main points of contention between the two factions has been JNIM’s strict interpretation of Islamic law, which led to the breakdown of their alliance in 2012.

However, the current negotiations propose a new governance model in which Sharia law would be implemented at the local level, but administered by community-based religious authorities rather than JNIM operatives. This compromise, according to sources, has been accepted by JNIM’s leadership.

Another major shift is JNIM’s perspective on Mali’s territorial integrity. Rather than supporting the Tuareg rebels’ long-standing push for an independent Azawad, JNIM has reportedly argued that regional and international actors would be more likely to tolerate an Islamic governance structure within a unified Mali rather than outright secession.

JNIM’s ability to convince Tuareg leaders to focus on governing northern Mali rather than seeking full independence represents a major ideological shift. The jihadist group is prepared to support Tuareg fighters in taking control of key territories, but with the understanding that these areas would be governed under an Islamic framework rather than an independent Tuareg state.

A New Governance Model for Northern Mali?

Sources close to JNIM say that if the alliance moves forward, the group is ready to coordinate and administer territories alongside Tuareg rebels. However, lessons from the 2012 conflict have prompted a change in strategy.

Rather than raising the black flag of al-Qaeda over captured cities a move that led to international military intervention in the past—JNIM plans to allow Tuareg governance structures to manage administrative affairs. This means that while JNIM would retain influence, it would avoid direct control over urban areas, instead allowing local Tuareg leadership to take the forefront.

Such a strategy could serve multiple purposes: Reducing the risk of foreign military intervention by keeping governance in the hands of local Tuareg leaders, JNIM would present a less overt threat to international powers. Legitimizing its role in Mali’s political landscape rather than being seen purely as an extremist group, JNIM could position itself as a political and security partner in the region. Avoiding the mistakes of 2012 The rapid downfall of the Tuareg rebellion in 2012 was largely due to its inability to maintain control. By working together with the rebels rather than sidelining them, JNIM aims to ensure a more sustainable presence.

The Question of Al-Qaeda Affiliation

One of the most sensitive aspects of the negotiations revolves around JNIM’s relationship with al-Qaeda’s central command. According to sources, there is ongoing internal debate about whether the group should formally distance itself from al-Qaeda.

For JNIM leaders, the question is not just ideological but also strategic. Some within the group believe that dissociating from al-Qaeda could open doors to direct negotiations with Western governments. Others argue that such a move would require religious justification, possibly linked to a major political development such as the formal independence of Azawad or the collapse of the Malian government in Bamako.

Interestingly, sources indicate that JNIM is more willing to negotiate its future with Western powers directly rather than through Tuareg intermediaries. The concern within JNIM is that Tuareg leaders could use any potential al-Qaeda split as leverage in their own diplomatic engagements with France and other international actors.

Conclusion: A Game-Changer for Mali?

If these negotiations result in a formal agreement, the implications for Mali and the wider Sahel could be profound. A coordinated Tuareg-JNIM alliance would not only reshape local power dynamics but could also alter the trajectory of jihadist movements across West Africa.

The shift in JNIM’s strategy from ideological extremism to pragmatic governance signals a broader recalibration of jihadist operations in the region. Whether this shift leads to long-term stability or another round of conflict remains to be seen.

What is clear, however, is that Mali’s security landscape is on the brink of another transformation one that could redefine the balance of power in the Sahel for years to come.

Zagazola Makama is a Counter Insurgency Expert and Security Analyst in the Lake Chad Region

Tuareg Rebels and JNIM: A New Strategic Alliance in Mali?

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Police Foil IED Attack, Destroy Explosive Device in Zamfara

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Police Foil IED Attack, Destroy Explosive Device in Zamfara

By: Zagazola Makama

The Zamfara State Police Command says it has successfully foiled a planned attack after its Explosive Ordnance Disposal (EOD) unit discovered and safely destroyed an Improvised Explosive Device (IED) in Tsafe Local Government Area of the state.

The Command said the operation was carried out on Friday at about 4:15 p.m. along the Kunchin Kalgo axis following credible intelligence received through community engagement efforts.

According to a statement issued by the Command, operatives of the Violence Crime Response Unit (VCRU), in collaboration with the EOD team, swiftly mobilised to the area after receiving information about a suspected explosive device planted by bandits.

Preliminary findings indicated that the device was strategically planted along the road with the intent of causing mass casualties among commuters and other road users.

The statement added that the timely response of the operatives led to the safe detection, evacuation and controlled destruction of the explosive device before it could cause any harm.

The Command commended the vigilance and cooperation of local residents, describing community support as critical to ongoing security operations in the state.

It further assured residents that efforts were ongoing to identify, arrest and prosecute those responsible for planting the device.

The police also disclosed that patrols had been intensified across vulnerable areas to prevent similar incidents and ensure the safety of road users.

The Commissioner of Police, A.M. Bello, reiterated the Command’s commitment to sustained operations against banditry and other violent crimes in Zamfara State.

Police Foil IED Attack, Destroy Explosive Device in Zamfara

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Russia’s Role in the Widening Insecurity in Africa

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Russia’s Role in the Widening Insecurity in Africa

By Ipole Amajama

The African continent is once again at the centre of a geopolitical storm. From the Sahel to Nigeria, insecurity is spreading at an alarming speed, threatening fragile states and destabilising entire regions. While local dynamics and systemic weaknesses play a role, Russia’s involvement raises troubling questions about its motives and the consequences for Africa and beyond.

Nigeria faces a growing terrorist threat that is no longer confined to its borders. The collapse of governance in several states of the Alliance of Sahelian Juntas (AES) has created fertile ground for extremist groups. These failed states have become incubators of insecurity, exporting violence into neighbouring countries. The challenge is no longer whether to support or oppose the junta, but how to deal with their failures and the regional consequences of their isolation.

Russia’s actions in Africa reveal a clear pattern: its primary aim is not to stabilise the continent but to create a secondary frontline against the West. By fostering instability in Africa, Moscow seeks to divert European attention and resources away from Ukraine. The Kremlin’s involvement is less about partnership and more about exploiting chaos for strategic advantage.

This raises a critical question: is Russia simply incapable of offering meaningful support, or is it deliberately spreading insecurity? The evidence suggests that Moscow benefits from turmoil in Africa, whether by design or by opportunism.

Whatever happens in Africa has little direct impact on Russia. The continent is geographically distant, and Russia’s economic ties with African nations are minimal. In fact, Africa’s collapse could even benefit Moscow. African oil, gas, and mineral exports compete with Russia’s own. If insecurity disrupts African production, global prices rise—strengthening Russia’s export revenues.

Europe, however, bears the brunt of Africa’s instability. Migratory pressure from conflict zones is already reshaping European politics. Far-right parties, often sympathetic to Russia, are gaining ground in countries like France and the UK. By exacerbating insecurity in Africa, Moscow indirectly fuels migration flows that influence European voters. This strategy weakens European unity and undermines support for Ukraine.

From a Russian perspective, encouraging instability in Africa is a shrewd way to manipulate European politics. The more Africans flee insecurity and attempt to reach Europe, the greater the strain on European societies. This pressure amplifies populist narratives, strengthens far-right movements, and erodes mainstream political consensus. Since many far-right parties are pro-Russia, the Kremlin gains strategic leverage by destabilising Africa.

Russia’s record in the Sahel is damning. It has done nothing to fight terrorism. Instead, it has encouraged juntas to isolate themselves from the international community, sever ties with African neighbours, and expel Western intelligence and military support. In exchange, the Sahel states received nothing of substance. Russian involvement has failed to improve security, governance, or economic conditions. On the contrary, the situation has worsened.

It is difficult to determine whether Russia is acting with malicious intent or simply behaving irresponsibly. Either way, the outcome is the same: worsening insecurity. Moscow’s promises of support have proven empty. Its presence has deepened instability, leaving African populations more vulnerable than before.

The hypothesis of a cynical will to facilitate insecurity cannot be dismissed. Russia appears to be the only clear winner of Africa’s suffering. By exploiting chaos, Moscow strengthens its geopolitical position, increases its export revenues, and undermines European resolve.

The lesson is stark: Africa must never again rely on a self-proclaimed outside “saviour.” Russia’s involvement has shown that external powers may prioritise their own interests over African stability. The continent must instead build resilience through self-reliance and multilateral cooperation.

African nations should pursue balanced partnerships that preserve freedom of action. By engaging with multiple partners—regional organisations, international institutions, and diverse allies—Africa can avoid dependency and secure more effective support. Only through collective action can African states confront terrorism, strengthen governance, and protect their sovereignty.

Russia’s role in Africa is not about solidarity or development. It is about exploiting insecurity to advance its global strategy. By destabilising Africa, Moscow weakens Europe, strengthens far-right allies, and boosts its own economic position. Whether through negligence or deliberate manipulation, Russia has worsened Africa’s plight.

The challenge for Africa is to recognise this reality and chart a new path. The continent must rely on itself, build multilateral frameworks, and reject the false promises of external saviours. Only then can Africa safeguard its future and prevent its suffering from being weaponised to serve foreign ambitions.

Amajama, a social commentator, writes from Abuja and can be reached via amajamaip@gmail.com

Russia’s Role in the Widening Insecurity in Africa

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Buni approved the appointment of Yerima as the new emir of Ngazargamu.

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Buni approved the appointment of Yerima as the new emir of Ngazargamu.

By: Yahaya Wakili

Governor Mai Mala Buni CON, COMN of Yobe state has approved the appointment of Alhaji Yerima Ibn Mahmud as the new Emir of Ngazargamu.

This is contained in a statement signed and issued today, 12th June, 2026, by the acting secretary to the state government, Dr. Mohammed Goje, in Damaturu.

The appointment of the new emir of Ngazargamu followed the demise of the late emir, Alhaji Tijjani Ahmed Ibn-Saleh Geidam, who passed away recently in Cairo, Egypt, after a protracted illness.

Until his appointment, the new Mai Ngazargamu was the Turakin Ngazargamu, an office he held for 16 years. He was also a member of the State House of Assembly.

The new emir of Ngazargamu, Alhaji Yerima Ibn Mahmud, has at different times served as a member of the State Executive Council and the state commissioner for livestock development before the new appointment.

Governor Mai Mala Buni, while congratulating the new emir and the Ngazargamu emirate, urged the new emir to use his wealth of experience to unite the people, promote peace and peaceful coexistence, and foster economic growth of the emirate, Yobe State, and Nigeria as a whole.

Similarly, Governor Buni called on the people to support the new emir to execute the functions of his office diligently, effectively, and efficiently for the benefit of the people, peace, unity, and prosperity of the emirate.

Buni approved the appointment of Yerima as the new emir of Ngazargamu.

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