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Violent Extremism in West Africa and the Need for a New Strategy to Peace
Violent Extremism in West Africa and the Need for a New Strategy to Peace
By: Michael Mike
The persistent threat of violent extremism in West African states, exacerbated by groups such as Boko Haram, ISWAP, and Al-Qaeda, necessitates a reevaluation of current strategies. The complexity of this issue, driven by factors such as widespread poverty, weak governance, political instability, and limited educational opportunities, calls for a comprehensive and multifaceted approach.
This article by Senator Iroegbu and Maureen Okpe, highlights the urgent need for a new strategy that addresses the socio-economic and political root causes of extremism, emphasizing the importance of community engagement, economic development, and inclusive governance in building a more resilient and peaceful West Africa.
Rising Extremism and Its Drivers
Violent extremism has long plagued West African countries, with groups such as Boko Haram and its splinter groups like the Islamic State in West Africa Province (ISWAP) and Ansaru, bandits, herdsmen, and Al-Qaeda spreading terror and destabilizing the region. Despite ongoing efforts by governments, international organizations, and civil society groups, the threat of violent extremism continues to grow, underscoring the need for a new, comprehensive strategy to tackle this pressing issue. West Africa has experienced a steady rise in violent extremist groups, driven by a complex web of interrelated factors. Key among these are: widespread poverty, which creates a fertile ground for extremist groups to exploit vulnerable populations, offering financial incentives in exchange for allegiance.
Other factors include weak governance and political instability that undermine state authority, providing opportunities for extremist groups to gain influence and territory. Historical and ongoing ethnic conflicts also contribute to the cycle of violence, as extremist groups manipulate these divisions to further their agendas. This is added to the fact that limited educational opportunities leave many youths without prospects for a better future, making them susceptible to radicalization.
Consequently, extremist groups have adeptly exploited these vulnerabilities to recruit disenfranchised youth and spread their toxic ideologies. By capitalizing on socio-economic grievances and offering a sense of belonging and purpose, these groups have managed to swell their ranks, leading to a surge in violence and instability across the region.
To this end, the persistent threat posed by these violent extremism in West Africa calls for a reevaluation of current approaches and the development of a new, multifaceted strategy. This strategy must go beyond traditional military responses and address the underlying socio-economic and political factors that fuel extremism. Key components should include economic development by investing in job creation and opportunities to alleviate poverty and provide alternatives to joining extremist groups. Also critical is the need for political reforms by strengthening governance and promoting political stability to restore public trust and diminish the appeal of extremist narratives.
It is therefore crucial to note that while violent extremism continues to challenge the stability and security of West African states, a comprehensive and inclusive strategy that addresses the root causes of extremism holds the promise of building a more peaceful and resilient region. These strategies could also include expanding access to quality education to empower youth and equip them with the tools to resist radicalization; and fostering dialogue and reconciliation within and between communities to bridge divides and promote social cohesion.
The Role of Peacebuilders, Peacebuilding and Conflict Prevention
In the face of the escalating threat of violent extremism in West Africa, a network of dedicated peacebuilders is working tirelessly to counteract extremist narratives and promote peaceful conflict resolution. Through grassroots initiatives, community engagement, and dialogue, these activists strive to address the root causes of violence and build a more peaceful and inclusive society.
One notable effort is the recent three-day training workshop held in Abuja, Nigeria, organized by the Research and Action for Peace Network (REcAP Network). This workshop, implemented by the West Africa Network for Peacebuilding (WANEP) in partnership with the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) and the Danish Refugee Council (DRC), and funded by the European Union (EU), focused on “Conflict Prevention, Violent Extremism, Crisis Management, and Peacebuilding.” The objective was to foster stronger community ties, promote dialogue and reconciliation, and cultivate a culture of peace and mutual understanding.
The three-day training featured various facilitators, including Dr. Bridget Osakwe, the Nigeria National Network Coordinator for WANEP-Nigeria; and Dr. Festus Kofi Aubyn, Regional Coordinator for Research and Capacity Building at WANEP-Regional. Others are: Ms. Edwige Dede Mensah, who discussed early warning response, negotiations, mediation, and dialogue on alternative dispute resolution; and Ms. Patience Ikpeh-Obaulo, Head of Programmes at WANEP-Nigeria, who facilitated sessions on Gender, Peace, and Security.
The project, which trained 20 participants, aims to establish a sustainable, inclusive, and effective regional network of experts specialized in peacebuilding and the prevention of conflicts and violent extremism. This network will operate across 18 countries in West Africa and the Lake Chad Basin, providing an interactive platform for regional cooperation and knowledge sharing.
Training the next generation of peacebuilders: Osakwe highlighted the goal of the training, which is to engage 20 beginners who had no prior knowledge in peacebuilding. “The overall objective of the project is to strengthen the role of civil society, including regional, national, and community practitioners and researchers, in effective peacebuilding, crisis management, and the prevention of conflict and violent extremism in West Africa and the Lake Chad Basin. This enables more informed decision-making by policymakers,” she explained. She underscored the necessity of expanding peacebuilding efforts to include more practitioners and researchers who can apply their knowledge in various domains. According to her, the ultimate goal is to have more individuals practicing and studying peacebuilding, thereby broadening the reach and impact of these efforts.
Building knowledge and community resilience: Aubyn described knowledge as progressive, saying: “it is always good to acquire knowledge, but don’t keep it to yourself; it is always good to impart it”. According to him, “knowledge should be shared within communities and workplaces. We need to change, and that change doesn’t rest solely on the government.” Aubyn emphasized that peacebuilding knowledge should be disseminated at the community level and integrated into everyday practices and interactions. He pointed out that while the government plays a crucial role, community-driven initiatives are equally important in fostering sustainable peace.
The path forward and inclusive efforts: Despite these commendable efforts, peacebuilders face significant challenges. The complex web of factors driving violent extremism—poverty, political instability, ethnic tensions, and lack of access to education—requires comprehensive and coordinated approaches. Osakwe noted that expanding peacebuilding initiatives and bringing more practitioners and researchers into the field is essential for addressing these multifaceted issues effectively. The facilitators stressed on the central theme of the training was the importance of inclusive efforts in peacebuilding. Accordingly, the workshop aimed to build bridges between communities, promote dialogue and reconciliation, and create a culture of peace and understanding. By involving a diverse group of participants, including those without prior knowledge of peacebuilding, the project sought to cultivate a broad-based, grassroots movement for peace. They noted that the collaborative approach adopted by REcAP Network, WANEP, SIPRI, DRC, and the EU underscores the vital role of international partnerships in addressing violent extremism. Such partnerships bring together diverse perspectives and resources, enhancing the effectiveness of peacebuilding initiatives.
Challenges of Conflict Faced by West African Governments
Despite concerted efforts by West African governments to combat violent extremism, the challenges they face are immense. The region is plagued by weak governance, widespread corruption, porous borders, and limited resources, all of which significantly hinder the ability to effectively address the root causes of extremism and dismantle the networks of extremist groups operating in the region. Moreover, the transnational nature of violent extremism complicates efforts, making it difficult for individual countries to tackle the issue in isolation.
“When you look at the West African states, the Sahel, Lake Chad and even the coastal areas these places are involved with different levels of conflict. At the Sahel, we have aggravated conflict, in part of Nigeria and the Lake Chad basin we also have high-intensity conflict, what this is saying is that we are not doing much in terms of conflict prevention,” Aubyn noted.
Ungoverned Spaces: Ungoverned spaces have been a significant factor contributing to extremism in many West African states. These areas, often perceived as marginalized by the government, become breeding grounds for violent activities due to the lack of effective governance and security presence. Providing insight into the violence in Nigeria’s North East, Dr. Osakwe explained, “At the start of Boko Haram, it was initially perceived through the lens of religion, power struggles, and other factors. However, we now see banditry in the North West and farmer-herder conflicts in the North Central. “The crises differ in their ideologies,” Osakwe continued, “but one common factor is that these crises thrive in ungoverned spaces where government presence is minimal. In these areas, there are numerous identity issues and unresolved grievances.”
Osakwe emphasized that the perceived marginalization and lack of appropriate channels for addressing grievances exacerbate the situation. “A lot of people feel marginalized and do not have proper avenues to voice their concerns, leading to an escalation of violence and extremism,” she noted. This highlights the critical need for governments to establish stronger governance and security frameworks in these vulnerable areas to prevent the proliferation of extremist ideologies and violence.
Weak Governance and Corruption: Weak governance and rampant corruption are pervasive issues in many West African countries. Government institutions often lack the capacity and resources to enforce the rule of law effectively, which creates an environment where extremist groups can operate with relative impunity. Corruption further undermines public trust in government institutions, making it easier for extremist groups to exploit grievances and recruit disenfranchised individuals. The lack of accountability and transparency within government structures also means that funds meant for development and security are often misappropriated, exacerbating the conditions that give rise to extremism.
Porous Borders: The region’s porous borders facilitate the movement of extremist groups, weapons, and illicit goods, making it challenging for any single country to contain the spread of violence. Extremist groups like Boko Haram and Al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) take advantage of these ungoverned spaces to establish safe havens and conduct cross-border attacks. The difficulty in securing these borders is compounded by the vast and often inhospitable terrain, which stretches the limited resources of border security agencies.
Limited Resources: Many West African countries face significant economic challenges that limit their ability to invest in comprehensive counter-extremism strategies. Limited resources mean that governments often focus on immediate security responses rather than long-term preventive measures. This reactive approach is insufficient to address the deeply rooted socio-economic issues that fuel extremism, such as poverty, unemployment, and lack of access to education. Without sufficient investment in development and social services, the underlying drivers of extremism remain unaddressed.
Transnational Nature of Extremism: The transnational nature of violent extremism poses a significant challenge to regional stability. Extremist groups operate across national borders, making it difficult for individual countries to combat them effectively. Coordinated regional responses are essential but often hampered by differing national interests, lack of trust between governments, and bureaucratic inefficiencies. The need for intelligence sharing, joint military operations, and harmonized policies is critical to disrupt the operations of extremist networks.
Early Warning Signs and Conflict Escalation: Dr. Aubyn, during his presentation on ‘Conflict and Conflict Prevention,’ emphasized the importance of recognizing and responding to early warning signs of conflict. He noted that conflicts in the region often come with early indicators that are neglected by authorities, leading to escalation. “For every conflict experienced in an environment, there have been early warning signs neglected by the authorities,” Aubyn stated. He highlighted the necessity of immediate and concerted efforts by relevant authorities to prevent situations from escalating into full-blown conflicts. He illustrated the varying levels of conflict across the region, from aggravated conflicts in the Sahel to high-intensity conflicts in parts of Nigeria and the Lake Chad Basin. “When you look at the West African states, the Sahel, Lake Chad, and even the coastal areas, these places are involved with different levels of conflict. At the Sahel, we have aggravated conflict; in part of Nigeria and the Lake Chad Basin, we also have high-intensity conflict. What this is saying is that we are not doing much in terms of conflict prevention.”
Deep-Rooted Grievances and Injustices: The challenges the region faces are complex and multifaceted. The rise of extremist groups, the proliferation of weapons, and the lack of economic opportunities have created a fertile ground for conflict. Deeply entrenched grievances and injustices further fuel extremism. Addressing these issues requires a coordinated, multi-dimensional approach that involves strengthening governance, reducing corruption, securing borders, and allocating sufficient resources to conflict prevention and resolution efforts.
The Need for a New Strategy
The threat of violent extremism in West Africa continues to evolve and spread, making the need for a new, comprehensive strategy more urgent than ever. By prioritizing prevention, community engagement, and international cooperation, West African governments can address the root causes of extremism and build a more peaceful and resilient society for future generations.
Evolving Conflict Dynamics: The nature of conflicts is constantly changing, requiring strategies that are adaptable and multifaceted. A purely military approach is insufficient; addressing the underlying grievances that drive individuals to join extremist groups is crucial. Dr. Bridget Osakwe emphasized the importance of community engagement, youth empowerment, education, and economic development as key pillars of prevention and intervention efforts. “The effectiveness of any peacebuilding strategy is only as good as the conflict analysis it is based on,” Osakwe stated. She underscored the need for the government to provide basic amenities for citizens, particularly in rural areas. “These individuals are only demanding their rights, which is not difficult to achieve,” she added.
Addressing Ungoverned Spaces: Osakwe highlighted that violent extremism thrives in ungoverned spaces. “In the North East, terrorism penetrated easily because extremists provided locals with their basic needs,” she explained. Recently, the government has recognized that purely military approaches are ineffective and has begun incorporating non-kinetic interventions. “All over the world, kinetic approaches have not worked. We need dialogues, conversations, and comprehensive conflict analysis to identify causes and necessary actions for intervention,” Osakwe emphasized. She urged for proactive measures to manage conflicts before they escalate. “We must think of missed opportunities within our environment and address them as early warning signs. Early response and inclusive processes are crucial,” she said.
Engaging the Youth: Dr. Festus Kofi Aubyn stressed the importance of engaging the youth, who constitute the majority of the population. “The youths today are not the youths of the 90s. Look at what happened in Kenya, where the youth opposed the government’s actions. We must not take the youth for granted,” he cautioned. Referring to the ENDSARS protest in Nigeria, he emphasized the need for the government to empower the private sector to create job opportunities for young people. “The government needs to invest in the economic system for the youth. The youth must be represented in decision-making processes to ensure their perspectives are considered,” Aubyn said. He warned that if the youth are excluded from economic opportunities and decision-making, civil unrest led by the youth is inevitable. “We are heading towards a pit if measures are not put in place to stem the tide,” he warned.
Broader African Context: Aubyn noted that the issues facing Nigeria are common across many African countries. “In the 1960s, there were fewer universities and less population pressure. Now, the population has more than doubled, but opportunities have not kept pace,” he observed. He highlighted the problem of older generations occupying positions that should be available to the youth. “This situation forces some young people to undertake dangerous journeys in search of better opportunities, illustrating the failure of our governments,” he concluded.
Proffering Solutions
Aubyn posited that proactive steps must be taken to prevent conflicts from escalating. “In terms of future responses, we need to invest more in conflict prevention and peacebuilding. Our attention has always been on reactive responses by defense and security forces, which do not address the root problems,” he stated. He called for greater investment in governance, especially on issues concerning the youth, such as unemployment and economic opportunities.
“We need a paradigm shift in our government structures, institutions, and ways of doing things. Otherwise, we are heading for danger,” Aubyn warned. He emphasized Nigeria’s potential role as a leader in Africa, urging the country to take decisive action to improve governance and address the challenges it faces.
Coordinated Regional Efforts: To effectively tackle violent extremism, West African governments must enhance their collaboration, not only within the region but also with international partners. This includes sharing intelligence, coordinating military efforts, and harmonizing policies to disrupt the operations of extremist networks. Additionally, investing in socio-economic development to address the underlying causes of extremism—such as poverty, unemployment, and lack of education—remains critical.
Investing in Socio-Economic Development: A holistic approach to combating violent extremism involves not just immediate security measures but also long-term strategies aimed at promoting good governance, economic development, and social cohesion. Governments need to invest in education, healthcare, and infrastructure to create opportunities for their citizens. By addressing the socio-economic disparities that extremists exploit, governments can reduce the appeal of extremist ideologies.
Building Resilient and Inclusive Societies: Ultimately, building resilient and inclusive societies where grievances can be addressed through dialogue and peaceful means is essential. This requires a holistic approach that combines immediate security measures with long-term strategies aimed at promoting good governance, economic development, and social cohesion. Engaging communities in peacebuilding efforts, promoting dialogue and reconciliation, and ensuring that all segments of society feel represented and heard are crucial steps towards achieving lasting peace and stability in West Africa.
Participants’ Takeaways
The workshop and training sessions left a lasting impact on the participants, who shared their key takeaways and insights:
Ayebaebi Ruth Moses, Member, Women and Girls with Albinism Network: “The workshop on capacity building, conflict prevention, peacebuilding, and countering violent extremism provided participants with valuable insights and practical tools to address the complex challenges of conflict and violence in their communities. By investing in capacity-building initiatives and promoting inclusive and participatory peacebuilding processes, stakeholders can work together to build resilient communities that are better equipped to prevent and resolve conflicts non-violently. Moving forward, it is essential to continue engaging with stakeholders and taking a holistic approach to peacebuilding and countering violent extremism to promote sustainable peace and security.”
Amb. Salihu Honest Gode, AMAC Student President: “My key takeaway from the REcAP Training was learning strategies to combat misinformation and disinformation. I was inspired by the focus on promoting diversity and equity, which aligns with my goal of creating an inclusive platform for open dialogue and skill-building workshops. I plan to apply the knowledge gained from the training to enhance my efforts in empowering youths by conducting step-down training to pass on the knowledge acquired.”
Susan Oluwatosin Michael, Director, Women Peace and Security, BBFORPEACE: “The REcAP Workshops provided valuable insights into effective conflict resolution. Among the key learnings, I found the following particularly thought-provoking: Readiness for peace, whereas external actors, no matter how skilled, cannot impose peace if conflicting parties are not willing to settle. While ensuring readiness for peace is essential, comprehensive and ongoing conflict analysis is also crucial for successful peacebuilding. Neglecting it can result in ineffective strategies and responses, therefore, anticipating crises should be paramount. Crises are not sudden events but rather the result of insufficient information or analysis. Early warning systems should gather data and trigger timely and appropriate responses.“
Earnest Oche, Youth Network for Community and Sustainable Development: ” For me, I learned that conflict is a clash of interest between two or more parties that perceive their interests or goals as incompatible. These groups can be small or large, communities, or states. When people’s goals are not compatible, conflict will likely occur. Perception matters greatly—the way we receive information or view a particular subject or situation is crucial. In dealing with conflict, we must analyze the situation critically to understand it thoroughly and propose better solutions that benefit both parties involved. In peacebuilding, one must be an excellent analyst to avoid taking sides and exacerbating the conflict. The training has given me a clearer picture of how to handle conflicts at various stages and manage any disputes within my community.”
Building a Better Future – A Call to Action
The challenges faced by West African citizens and governments in combating violent extremism are immense and multifaceted. Addressing these challenges requires a comprehensive and coordinated approach that involves strengthening governance, securing borders, investing in socio-economic development, promoting regional collaboration, and engaging communities, especially the youth. By taking these steps, West African countries can begin to address the root causes of extremism and build a more peaceful and resilient future for their citizens.
The efforts of peacebuilders in West Africa represent a crucial step towards combating violent extremism. By empowering individuals and communities with knowledge and strategies for conflict prevention and peacebuilding, these initiatives create a more stable and harmonious region. The success of these efforts depends on continued support from governments, international organizations, and local communities. Through sustained collaboration and commitment, it is possible to build a future where peace and security prevail over violence and extremism.
In a nutshell, the rising extremism in West Africa underscores the critical need for a holistic and coordinated strategy to combat this menace. The insights from the REcAP workshop, alongside the testimonies of dedicated peacebuilders, highlight the importance of addressing the root causes of extremism through comprehensive conflict analysis, proactive governance, and socio-economic development. By fostering regional collaboration, empowering communities, and prioritizing youth engagement, West African states can work towards mitigating the threat of violent extremism and building a more stable and secure future for their citizens. The collective efforts of governments, international organizations, and civil society are pivotal in realizing this vision of peace and resilience.
Violent Extremism in West Africa and the Need for a New Strategy to Peace
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Girl Child Education Paramount To Nation Building, First Lady Emphasises
Girl Child Education Paramount To Nation Building, First Lady Emphasises
** *Commissions renovated High School for Girls in Lagos
By: Our Reporter
The First Lady of Nigeria, Senator Oluremi Tinubu @SenRemiTinubu, has commissioned the renovated Alternative High School for Girls in Agboju, Amuwo-Odofin local government area of Lagos State, insisting that education for the girl child is paramount to nation building.
The school, established in 2007 during the tenure of President Bola Ahmed Tinubu as governor of Lagos State, was created to provide girls whose education had been interrupted by early pregnancy and other socio-economic challenges with an opportunity to return to school, complete their secondary education and acquire vocational skills.

The renovated school comprising two blocks, with more than 26 classrooms, has Agriculture, physics and biology laboratories, cosmetology, garment-making, hairdressing, catering and home economics classes as well as well equipped Library and ICT facilities.
Speaking during the commissioning ceremony, the First Lady, who was represented by wife of the Vice President, Hajiya Nana Shettima @kujarima, reaffirmed her commitment to ensuring that girls whose education has been disrupted by life’s challenges are given a second chance to fulfil their potential.
She noted that the establishment of the school was founded on the conviction that no girl or woman should be denied the opportunity to reach her full potential because of the challenges she encounters in life.
Senator Tinubu expressed delight at the renovation and equipping of the school through the intervention of the Universal Basic Education Commission (UBEC), just as she commended the Executive Secretary of UBEC, Dr. Aisha Garba and her team for their commitment to improving the learning environment.

She also applauded UBEC’s efforts towards establishing Alternative High Schools for Girls across the country, particularly the ongoing construction of another school in Ikorodu, Lagos State, which she said would soon be ready for commissioning.
The First Lady explained that the vision is to establish at least one Alternative High School for Girls in each of the three senatorial districts in the state.
She said Lagos West and Lagos East now have one school each, leaving Lagos Central as the remaining district.
Accordingly, she urged the Lagos State Government to complete the initiative by establishing an additional Alternative High School for Girls in Lagos Central, while ensuring the effective operation and proper maintenance of all the schools to enable more girls to complete their education and acquire relevant skills.
Addressing the students, Senator Tinubu encouraged them to take full advantage of the opportunity provided by the school, even as she asked them not to allow their past experiences to define their future.
“Let your past not define your future. With determination, discipline, and hard work, you can achieve your dreams and become positive contributors to our nation’s development,” she said.
On her part, wife of Lagos State Governor, Dr Ibijoke Sanwo-Olu, who represented her husband, Mr. Babajide Sanwo-Olu described the commissioning as unveiling of a new school.
She noted that it has restored dignity and created new opportunities for young women, adding that educating a girl is educating a family, a community, and a nation.
Also speaking, the Executive Secretary of UBEC, Dr. Aisha Garba said the Commission is committed to providing alternative access to education with skills development across the country.
She said the renovation of the Alternative High School for Girls in Agboju was part of the renewed commitment of the federal government, as work on the same school in Ikorodu is ongoing and will be commissioned soon.
There were goodwill messages from the lagos State Commissioner for Basic and Secondary Schools and Lagos SUBEB chairman.
Highpoint of the commissioning ceremony was the inspection of the facility by representative of the First Lady, Hajiya Shettima.
Girl Child Education Paramount To Nation Building, First Lady Emphasises
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Al-Shabaab weighs political pathway amid internal debate over Taliban model
Al-Shabaab weighs political pathway amid internal debate over Taliban model
By Zagazola Makama
A growing debate within Al-Shabaab’s media and ideological ecosystem over whether the Somali jihadist organisation could eventually follow a path similar to that of the Taliban in Afghanistan is raising questions about the group’s long-term strategic direction and the future of Somalia’s counter-insurgency campaign.
The emerging discussion is significant because it goes beyond the group’s traditional propaganda narrative. For the first time, elements associated with Al-Shabaab’s information network are openly examining the possibility of negotiations, political engagement and eventual interaction with the international community.
One of the figures associated with Al-Shabaab-affiliated media, identified by the alias Eng. Kurtun Hassan, has published two articles examining the possibility of a political transition and the lessons the group could draw from developments in Afghanistan.
The articles do not, on their own, constitute a formal declaration by Al-Shabaab. However, they have attracted attention because they raise substantive questions about whether an insurgent organisation that has spent nearly two decades fighting the Somali government could eventually seek a negotiated political settlement.
According to intelligence reporting cited by security sources, elements within the Al-Shabaab leadership may have already begun considering negotiations with the Federal Government of Somalia.
The reports indicate that discussions are allegedly being conducted around the possibility of using trusted foreign actors as intermediaries between Al-Shabaab and the Somali government.
The reported approach appears to be cautious, with the group allegedly waiting for what its leadership considers favourable political and security conditions before making any public announcement.
This is particularly important because Al-Shabaab has historically rejected the legitimacy of the Somali federal government and has sought to overthrow the existing political order through armed struggle. Any decision by senior commanders to explore negotiations would therefore represent a major departure from the organisation’s established strategy.
Security analysts, however, caution that exploratory contacts or internal discussions should not be confused with a final organisational decision.
Al-Shabaab is a complex organisation with military commanders, religious figures, financiers, clan-linked networks, political actors and an extensive propaganda apparatus. Differences within these components could influence whether any future negotiations gain the support of the wider leadership.
The Taliban experience appears to be an important reference point in the debate. After decades of conflict in Afghanistan, the Taliban eventually entered negotiations with the United States and other international actors before returning to power in Kabul in August 2021 following the collapse of the Afghan government.
For some within Al-Shabaab’s ideological and political circles, the Taliban experience may be viewed as evidence that an insurgent movement can move from armed opposition to political authority without necessarily disappearing as an organisation.
This could explain why developments in Afghanistan are reportedly receiving increased attention among senior Al-Shabaab members and sympathisers.
Sources indicate that members of the group are studying issues including governance, security structures, military organisation, public administration and economic production in Afghanistan. The interest is reportedly not limited to Afghanistan.
Developments in Syria are also being monitored, particularly questions surrounding armed groups, territorial control, governance structures and the transition from insurgency to political administration. The comparisons are significant because they suggest that sections of Al-Shabaab may be considering the question of what comes after insurgency.
Perhaps the most important aspect of the emerging discussion is the reported debate in areas under Al-Shabaab influence over whether the group could transform itself from an armed insurgent organisation into a governing authority.
In locations including Jilib, Bu’aale and Kunyoo Barrow, discussions are reportedly becoming increasingly open among members and sympathisers. The central question is reportedly whether Al-Shabaab possesses the organisational structures necessary to administer territory on a broader scale if it eventually abandons or reduces its armed campaign.
Supporters of the idea reportedly point to the organisation’s existing taxation systems, courts, security structures, religious administration and mechanisms for regulating economic activity in areas where it exercises influence. Some members are also said to compare Al-Shabaab’s organisational capabilities with armed factions that emerged during the Syrian conflict.
The argument reportedly being advanced by some sympathisers is that Al-Shabaab has developed a more coherent administrative structure than several other jihadist and insurgent organisations and could therefore potentially transform that structure into a political system.
Such claims, however, remain part of an internal ideological debate and should not be interpreted as evidence that a political transition has already been approved.
Al-Shabaab remains one of the most significant jihadist organisations operating in Africa.
Its strength is difficult to determine with precision because of the clandestine nature of the organisation and the movement of fighters between combat, logistical and support roles.
Some intelligence estimates put its overall membership at approximately 20,000, including about 12,000 armed combatants. The organisation also maintains a sophisticated financial system.
For years, Al-Shabaab has generated substantial revenue through taxation, extortion, illegal economic activities, checkpoints, commercial transactions and other sources.
Some assessments have placed its annual revenue at more than $100 million, although such estimates are difficult to independently verify. That financial strength has been one of the major factors sustaining the group’s insurgency.
However, the organisation has increasingly come under financial pressure as the Somali government, regional forces and international partners have intensified efforts to disrupt its revenue networks.
The targeting of financial facilitators, restrictions on money transfers and operations against taxation and extortion networks have reportedly complicated the group’s ability to maintain its previous level of financial freedom.
This could become an important factor in any future strategic decision by Al-Shabaab’s leadership.
The reported debate also comes against the background of continuing military pressure on Al-Shabaab. Somali security forces, supported by international and regional partners, have conducted sustained operations against the group, targeting its commanders, logistics networks, training facilities and territorial positions.
Although Al-Shabaab has demonstrated considerable resilience and retains the ability to launch attacks, conduct assassinations and impose influence over parts of rural Somalia, the conflict has also placed significant pressure on the organisation.
For the group’s leadership, the strategic calculation may therefore be changing. An insurgent movement can survive for many years without necessarily achieving its political objective. But maintaining an armed campaign indefinitely requires manpower, money, territorial access, popular support and the ability to replace commanders and fighters lost in combat.
The emergence of discussions about negotiations could therefore reflect a reassessment of whether military confrontation alone can deliver the group’s desired political outcome.
One of the most sensitive elements of the intelligence reporting is the suggestion that sections of Al-Shabaab may be reassessing its transnational jihadist ideology. For nearly two decades, Al-Shabaab has presented itself as part of the wider global jihadist movement. Its affiliation with Al-Qaeda has given the group an international ideological dimension beyond the Somali conflict.
Any decision to move towards a political settlement would therefore raise a fundamental question: Can Al-Shabaab participate in Somalia’s political system while maintaining the ideological framework that has justified its armed campaign?
This could become the most difficult issue in any negotiations. A political transition would potentially require compromises on governance, constitutional arrangements, security, territorial control and relations with the international community.
It could also generate internal resistance from commanders and hard-line ideological elements who regard negotiations with the Somali government as unacceptable.
The danger of overinterpreting the signals
Despite the significance of the emerging debate, security officials and analysts would need to exercise considerable caution.Al-Shabaab has an extensive propaganda apparatus capable of deliberately generating narratives designed to influence governments, local communities and international audiences.
Discussions about negotiations could therefore have multiple purposes. They could reflect a genuine internal strategic debate. They could be an attempt to test public reaction.
They could also represent efforts to create divisions within the Somali government or encourage the perception that the group is politically stronger than it actually is.
Another possibility is that pragmatic elements within the organisation are exploring political options while hard-line commanders remain committed to armed jihad. For that reason, the publication of articles by Al-Shabaab-affiliated writers should not automatically be treated as an official policy statement.
What would negotiations mean for Somalia?
If the intelligence reporting is eventually corroborated and Al-Shabaab formally agrees to negotiations, the consequences would be profound. For the Somali government, negotiations could offer an opportunity to reduce violence, expand state authority and encourage defections from the insurgency. But negotiations could also create serious political and security challenges.
The government would have to determine whether former fighters could be integrated into security institutions, whether political participation could be offered to former insurgents and how victims of Al-Shabaab violence would be addressed.
There would also be difficult questions surrounding justice, accountability and the future of commanders accused of serious crimes.
For neighbouring countries and international partners, any political transition would require careful monitoring to ensure that Al-Shabaab does not simply use negotiations to reorganise, rebuild its financial networks and emerge in a different form.
The emerging debate therefore represents an important intelligence and political development, but not yet a confirmed breakthrough.The most significant indicator would be whether the reported internal discussions eventually translate into an official decision by Al-Shabaab’s senior leadership.
That would require more than media articles or discussions among sympathisers.
It would likely become visible through changes in the group’s public messaging, contacts with intermediaries, reductions in attacks, movement of senior commanders, instructions to field units and eventually direct engagement with the Somali government. Until such indicators emerge, the Taliban comparison should be treated as a strategic discussion rather than an established roadmap.
Nevertheless, the fact that such a discussion is reportedly taking place within Al-Shabaab’s own media environment is noteworthy.
After nearly two decades of armed conflict, the organisation may be confronting the same strategic question that has faced several long-running insurgencies: whether victory can ultimately be achieved through continued warfare or whether survival and political influence require a transition into a different kind of movement.
For Somalia, that question could become one of the most consequential developments in the country’s long-running fight against Al-Shabaab.
At present, however, the evidence points to an emerging internal debate not a confirmed decision by Al-Shabaab to abandon armed jihad or enter negotiations. Further intelligence and independent corroboration will be required before such a strategic shift can be established with confidence.
Al-Shabaab weighs political pathway amid internal debate over Taliban model
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Security Agencies Conduct Show of Force, Secure Juma’at Prayers in Jos
Security Agencies Conduct Show of Force, Secure Juma’at Prayers in Jos
By Zagazola Makama
Security agencies have conducted a show of force across major flashpoints in the Jos-Bukuru metropolis and provided security for Juma’at prayers at various locations across Plateau State.
The operation, conducted on Friday, August 14, 2026, involved personnel of Operation Enduring Peace (OPEP), 551 Nigerian Air Force Station, Keystone, the Nigeria Security and Civil Defence Corps (NSCDC) and other security agencies.
A security source told Zagazola Makama that the personnel conducted patrols and a show of force at identified flashpoints within the Jos-Bukuru metropolis as part of proactive measures to ensure a peaceful and hitch-free Juma’at prayer.

Security personnel were also deployed to various mosques and worship centres across the Operation Enduring Peace Joint Operations Area to deter criminal elements and prevent any attempt to disrupt religious activities.
The coordinated security presence was aimed at denying criminal elements freedom of action while reassuring residents and worshippers of their safety.
The exercise was conducted without incident, with Juma’at prayers reported to have proceeded peacefully across the areas covered by the operation.

Security agencies have continued to maintain vigilance across the metropolis and other vulnerable locations as part of efforts to sustain peace and prevent security breaches.
Security Agencies Conduct Show of Force, Secure Juma’at Prayers in Jos
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