2027: The Coalition, the resistance North, and the APC’s Path to Victory

By: Dr. James Bwala

The political landscape in Nigeria ahead of the 2027 elections suggests an imminent collapse of the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) and Labour Party (LP), while the Social Democratic Party (SDP) may emerge as the primary opposition, but it will ultimately lose to the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) by a wider margin. The PDP’s internal divisions and resistance to coalition-building, particularly its governors’ rejection of alliances with LP and SDP, significantly weaken its viability as a competitive force. This fragmentation undermines any effective challenge against APC’s entrenched dominance.

Despite attempts by figures like former Vice President Atiku Abubakar to unite opposition forces, the lack of cohesion within PDP and between opposition parties inhibits a strong front against APC. Analysts emphasize that without strategic coalitions, no single party can match APC’s electoral machinery or political influence. Even if SDP consolidates opposition votes, its structural weaknesses and limited reach foreshadow a defeat by an even larger margin than previous contests.

Indeed, with growing complexities accompanying the political landscape, Nigeria’s multiparty system faces realignment where PDP and LP risk extinction due to disunity, while SDP’s isolated struggle against APC is unlikely to alter electoral outcomes significantly. The evidence underscores that only a united opposition coalition could potentially reduce APC’s dominance; however, current dynamics indicate this remains improbable before 2027. 

As the political landscape continues to evolve, the potential for a unified opposition remains hindered by entrenched party loyalties and strategic misalignments, further solidifying APC’s path to a more decisive victory. The entrenched influence of APC’s political machinery and its strategic alliances, such as the strengthening of the Tinubu-Shettima partnership, further complicate any opposition efforts to mount a significant challenge in 2027. 

Many political pundits have agreed that the All Progressives Congress (APC) is strategically positioned to dismantle opposition forces ahead of the 2027 Nigerian elections by capitalizing on the fragmented nature of its adversaries. The opposition currently consists of disparate groups: former presidential contenders who reject APC’s governance, disaffected ex-APC members seeking influence, and erstwhile party leaders now opposing the APC. This lack of cohesion undermines any effective coalition-building efforts, a critical weakness given Nigeria’s history, where opposition alliances frequently collapse due to internal strife and competing ambitions.

For now, the APC is leveraging its narrative of competent governance, contrasting with the perceived failures of the People’s Democratic Party (PDP), which it accuses of prolonged misrule and internal discord. By emphasizing PDP’s factionalism and incompetence, APC consolidates public trust while portraying itself as Nigeria’s stable alternative. This discourse not only weakens PDP’s credibility but also sows doubt about any potential opposition coalition.

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In essence, through exploiting opposition fragmentation and promoting its governance record against a divided PDP, loosely LP, and undecided SDP, the APC is poised to reduce opposition to rubble in 2027. The inability of opposition factions to unify effectively ensures that APC’s dominance remains largely unchallenged in forthcoming electoral contests. 

Angry leaders from the north are falling over themselves to raise regional political forces. But this too is no match for the readiness expected of the region. Despite the North’s considerable demographic and electoral influence, many Northerners feel marginalized due to perceived neglect in appointments and resource distribution, fueling a sense of betrayal. This dissatisfaction is compounded by internal divisions rooted in insecurity, poverty, and inter-communal conflicts that undermine the North’s collective political strength. As a result, these fractures could weaken the region’s capacity to negotiate effectively within national politics or present a unified opposition to Tinubu and Kashim Shettima, the APC’s dominance.

Demands from key sub-regions such as North-Central illustrate emerging fissures within Northern political interests. Stakeholders from this area insist on the presidency for 2027 and have conditioned their support for Tinubu’s reelection on replacing his vice president with a candidate from their region. Such demands underscore the potential for intensified competition among Northern factions rather than solidarity. This internal contestation risks diluting the North’s overall influence if not carefully managed. To this effect, unless Northern leaders address these internal challenges and reconcile divergent regional aspirations, political disunity may jeopardize their strategic position in 2027. 

The combination of grassroots grievances and elite rivalries is indeed opening ways for APC to exploit these divisions through tactical maneuvering, thereby diminishing Northern Nigeria’s historical leverage in Nigerian politics. It is imperative that cohesive strategies are developed to unify Northern voices if they are to maintain relevance in forthcoming elections.

* James Bwala, PhD, writes from Abuja.

2027: The Coalition, the resistance North, and the APC’s Path to Victory

2027: Despite ‘fake news’ and ‘misinformation, Tinubu and Shettima are not deterred by the antics of the coalition.

By: Dr. James Bwala

As the 2027 elections approach, the political landscape in Nigeria is rife with speculation and maneuvering. Despite pressures from various coalitions, particularly from the North-Central region demanding a change in running mate, President Bola Tinubu and Vice President Kashim Shettima remain steadfast. The ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) has categorically dismissed claims that Tinubu intends to replace Shettima as baseless and politically motivated. This resolute stance demonstrates their commitment to maintaining stability within the party during a crucial election period.

The demands of the North-Central coalition for representation stem from long-standing grievances regarding political marginalization. However, it is essential to recognize that calls for equity must be balanced with the realities of governance. The APC’s position emphasizes that any discussions about changing vice presidential candidates are premature given that Tinubu has not yet completed his first term. This perspective suggests a focus on continuity rather than disruption, which can ultimately benefit national cohesion.

Furthermore, influential stakeholders have expressed skepticism about any coalition’s ability to challenge Tinubu’s re-election bid effectively. This sentiment reflects a broader confidence in Tinubu and Shettima’s leadership capabilities amid rising political tensions. Their administration’s track record thus far supports an argument for stability over uncertainty as Nigeria navigates its complex socio-political landscape heading into 2027. 

Tinubu and Vice President Kashim Shettima’s administration’s focus on economic reforms and infrastructural development has further solidified their position as leaders who prioritize the nation’s progress over political squabbles. This unwavering focus on national development and unity continues to resonate with the electorate, positioning Tinubu and Shettima as steadfast leaders capable of steering Nigeria through its multifaceted challenges. 

Their ability to maintain focus on their developmental agenda, despite external pressures, further cements their reputation as leaders who are not easily swayed by political machinations. Their strategic focus on fostering inclusive policies and enhancing national integration underscores a commitment to addressing regional disparities while maintaining a unified front against divisive political tactics. 

Their proactive engagement with various regions through dialogue and consultation has further demonstrated their commitment to inclusive governance, which is essential in countering any potential regional discontent. Their administration’s resilience in the face of such demands and political maneuvering exemplifies their commitment to maintaining a government that prioritizes national interest over regional pressures. Their steadfast leadership approach, coupled with a clear vision for Nigeria’s future, ensures that they remain unperturbed by regional demands for political concessions. 

Their unwavering stance against succumbing to these regional pressures, as highlighted by the APC’s dismissal of rumors regarding a change in vice-presidential candidacy, reinforces their commitment to stability and continuity in governance. This strategic focus on unity and national progress is further bolstered by their administration’s proactive engagement with various stakeholders, ensuring that all regions feel represented and valued in the broader political landscape. Their administration’s inclusive policies and initiatives have been instrumental in fostering a sense of national unity, which has significantly diminished the impact of divisive political maneuvers. 

Despite these demands, President Tinubu and Vice President Shettima appear unfazed, continuing to focus on their governance agenda while maintaining a united front against any attempts to destabilize their administration’s progress. Despite the coalition’s demands and political maneuvering, both President Tinubu and Vice President Shettima remain focused on their governance agenda, confident in their administration’s ability to deliver on its promises and maintain public support. 

Their resilience in the face of political challenges is a testament to their strategic acumen and dedication to fostering a cohesive national identity, rather than yielding to divisive regional pressures. Their ability to navigate these political intricacies without succumbing to external pressures underscores a leadership style that prioritizes long-term national interests over short-term political gains. 

This steadfast approach not only reinforces their credibility but also strengthens the public’s trust in their leadership, ensuring a robust foundation for their administration’s future endeavors. This commitment to equitable representation and steadfast governance has not only consolidated their political base but also positioned them as unyielding advocates for a unified Nigeria, capable of navigating the complexities of coalition politics without compromising their vision for national development. 

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Their unwavering stance, coupled with a strategic focus on inclusive policies, has effectively neutralized potential threats from opposition groups, ensuring that their leadership remains resilient and forward-looking. Their leadership, characterized by a commitment to inclusivity and strategic foresight, continues to resonate with the electorate, fostering a sense of stability and continuity in an evolving political landscape. Their adept handling of coalition demands, without compromising their principles or governance agenda, further cements their reputation as leaders who are attuned to the nation’s needs and aspirations. 

Their approach to coalition politics, marked by strategic patience and an unwavering commitment to their agenda, has effectively mitigated the influence of opposition demands. Their ability to maintain this delicate balance between coalition demands and their steadfast governance principles demonstrates a calculated resilience that leaves little room for the opposition to exploit potential weaknesses. Their adept navigation of coalition pressures, coupled with a clear articulation of their governance priorities, underscores their political acumen and fortifies their standing as leaders committed to advancing Nigeria’s progress despite external demands. 

Their ability to effectively engage with diverse political factions while maintaining a steadfast focus on their governance objectives highlights their adeptness in coalition politics and reinforces their leadership as one that prioritizes national unity over regional demands. Their consistent engagement with regional concerns, while maintaining a broader national perspective, ensures that they remain a formidable force in the political arena. Their leadership, characterized by an unwavering resolve and strategic diplomacy, continues to inspire confidence among supporters. 

Their leadership prowess is further evidenced by their ability to address regional grievances without yielding to unwarranted pressure. Their strategic focus on national cohesion, rather than succumbing to regional pressures, exemplifies their commitment to inclusive governance and strengthens their position against coalition demands. Their adept handling of these nuanced political dynamics not only showcases their ability to uphold national interests but also serves as a testament to their enduring influence in the political landscape. Their leadership approach, which skillfully balances regional interests with overarching national goals, continues to garner widespread support and positions them as resilient figures against coalition pressures. Their unwavering stance, coupled with a keen understanding of the political landscape, allows them to navigate coalition pressures with confidence and poise, thereby reinforcing their commitment to a united and prosperous Nigeria.

* James Bwala, PhD, writes from Abuja.

2027: Despite ‘fake news’ and ‘misinformation, Tinubu and Shettima are not deterred by the antics of the coalition.

Hakeem Baba Ahmed: The Call Boy, the Tactical Move, and 2027

By: Dr. James Bwala

Hakeem Baba Ahmed’s resignation as political advisor to the president underscores the complexity of Nigeria’s democracy and reveals a deeper narrative about the power struggles leading to the 2027 elections. The apparent sidelining of VP Shettima by Tinubu, according to some narratives, informed his resignation. But this is far from the truth. That was a move by the coalition of political gladiators strategizing to bring forces together against President Bola Ahmed Tinubu and his co-travelers. The VP remains one strong pillar around the President that this coalition knows, and they are making efforts to separate this bond so as to strike hard on the President. This also informed the continuous rhetoric around the soft wall in the name of “rift in the presidency” through ‘fake new’s, which they hoped Nigerians would believe, and they also hoped to build on these in pursuing their goals for 2027. 

Although critics have accused Baba Ahmed of prioritizing personal gain over regional interests in his decision to resign. Such accusations suggest that his initial acceptance of the advisory role may have been driven by financial incentives rather than genuine political commitment. Some rhetorical statements suggested that Baba Ahmed’s departure signals a fracture in the administration’s coherence and unity. But certainly that does not warrant his recent statements geared towards the 2027 elections. 

His recent rhetoric surrounding the Nigerian presidency raises significant concerns regarding the political landscape leading up to 2027. His assertion that the North can secure the presidency irrespective of Southern demands reflects a divisive mindset that undermines national unity. Such statements not only alienate Southern constituents but also perpetuate an atmosphere of exclusion and hostility within Nigeria’s diverse society. The implications of this behavior suggest a strategic move aimed at consolidating Northern power, which could have detrimental effects on the nation’s democratic processes.

Labeling Ahmed as “The Call Boy” serves to emphasize his role as a provocateur in this political theater. This moniker suggests an individual who prioritizes self-serving agendas over collective progress, potentially jeopardizing Nigeria’s future stability. As we approach the critical election year of 2027, it is imperative for Nigerian leaders to adopt inclusive strategies rather than engage in polarizing tactics. A collaborative approach will foster national cohesion and ensure that all voices are heard in shaping Nigeria’s trajectory. A genuine commitment to dialogue and mutual respect among Nigeria’s diverse regions will be essential in overcoming the challenges posed by such divisive rhetoric. 

Fostering this environment of unity will not only pave the way for a more equitable political framework but also strengthen Nigeria’s democratic institutions in the long term. By prioritizing policies that bridge regional divides and address the socio-economic disparities plaguing the nation, leaders can create a more resilient and united Nigeria poised for growth and prosperity. Such a shift from divisive tactics to inclusive governance could mitigate the risks associated with concentrated power and foster a more balanced political landscape. 

By focusing on these inclusive governance strategies, Nigeria can begin to dismantle the entrenched systems of patronage and nepotism that have long undermined its political integrity. By fostering a political environment that values inclusivity over exclusion, Nigeria can lay the groundwork for sustainable peace and development, steering away from rhetoric that alienates large segments of the population. By embracing a vision for 2027 that emphasizes strategic alliances and tactical inclusiveness, Nigeria can harness its diverse human resources to drive national progress and stability. 

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By prioritizing collaboration and mutual respect, political actors can create a more equitable system that reflects the aspirations of all Nigerians, potentially transforming the country’s trajectory as it approaches 2027. And by implementing policies that encourage transparency and accountability, the nation can move beyond divisive narratives and work towards a future where every citizen feels represented and valued. Such a shift in political culture could be the tactical move needed to redefine leadership dynamics and pave the way for a more harmonious and prosperous Nigeria by 2027. This paradigm shift requires leaders like Hakeem Baba Ahmed to transcend traditional power plays and engage in meaningful dialogue that prioritizes unity over division. 

Baba Ahmed can champion a political landscape that embraces inclusivity as a cornerstone for future governance. He can pave the way for a more harmonious political environment that prioritizes collective progress over individual gain. Such an approach not only enhances political stability but also fosters a sense of national identity that transcends ethnic and regional divides, setting the stage for robust development as the 2027 milestone approaches. Leveraging his influence and advocating for policies that dismantle systemic barriers, Baba Ahmed can inspire a new generation of leaders committed to the principles of justice and equality. He can potentially transform the political landscape into one that is resilient and adaptable to the challenges of a rapidly changing world by setting an example of inclusive leadership. 

By embracing this transformative approach, Hakeem Baba Ahmed not only positions himself as a visionary leader but also sets a precedent for others to follow; he can redefine what it means to lead a nation by fostering a political ethos that values empathy, transparency, and accountability above all else. By fostering a culture that prioritizes these values, Baba Ahmed can galvanize collective action towards a shared vision of national prosperity and peace, and by nurturing these values within the political framework, he will not only champion a future-ready governance model but also strengthen the democratic fabric of the nation.

While some Nigerians would still be tempted to inquire about why Hakeem Baba Ahmed resigned, it is more pertinent to focus on how these developments impact Vice President Shettima’s ability to govern effectively in an increasingly challenging political environment. As we delve deeper into the implications of Baba Ahmed’s resignation, it becomes evident that this event is not merely a personal decision but a reflection of broader systemic challenges within the Nigerian political landscape. This situation underscores the need for a reevaluation of the power dynamics at play, where political allies become adversaries due to competing interests and restricted communication channels. 

* James Bwala, PhD, writes from Abuja.

Hakeem Baba Ahmed: The Call Boy, the Tactical Move, and 2027