2027: Atiku, Obi, and El-Rufai remain vulnerable to fragmentation akin to oil separating from water.

2027: Atiku, Obi, and El-Rufai remain vulnerable to fragmentation akin to oil separating from water.

By: Dr. James Bwala

If it doesn’t function in SDP, how will it work in ADC? We were taught in basic school science that oil and water do not mix. If this metaphor is any indication, it describes the character and style of the trio who want President Bola Ahmed Tinubu and Vice President Kashim Shettima to leave the Aso Rock Villa by May 29, 2027.

The Nigerian political landscape ahead of the 2027 general elections is witnessing significant realignments, particularly with the emergence of a potential coalition involving Atiku Abubakar (PDP), Peter Obi (Labour Party), and Nasir El-Rufai (Social Democratic Party). This alliance aims to challenge the incumbent President Bola Tinubu and his running mate Shettima, signaling a strategic move to consolidate opposition forces against the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC). 

Despite these developments, reports suggest that Atiku, Obi, and El-Rufai are losing political ground due to internal fractures and challenges in harmonizing their distinct party platforms into a cohesive coalition. The APC remains cautious but confident, downplaying the threat posed by this opposition alliance while capitalizing on its incumbency advantages. Moreover, security concerns surrounding key opposition figures like El-rufai and Peter Obi highlight systemic issues that may undermine opposition unity and effectiveness.

While the planned coalition presents a formidable challenge to Tinubu’s administration, its success hinges on overcoming ideological differences and addressing vulnerabilities within opposition ranks. The low voter turnout in previous elections also casts uncertainty on whether such coalitions can mobilize sufficient grassroots support to unseat entrenched incumbents in Nigeria’s complex political environment. 

El-Rufai was allegedly said to have run to SDP in order to be a placeholder for Atiku. However, reports breaking suggested that former Vice President Atiku Abubakar, ex-Labour Party presidential candidate Peter Obi, and former Governor Nasir El-Rufai of Kaduna State have collectively adopted the African Democratic Congress (ADC) as the official platform for their opposition coalition ahead of the 2027 Nigerian general election. According to them, this strategic alliance marks a significant realignment in Nigeria’s political landscape. These prominent figures seek to challenge the incumbent President Bola Tinubu and his All Progressives Congress (APC) party. The coalition aims to consolidate opposition forces under a unified banner, thereby enhancing their electoral competitiveness.

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They thought they had found good ground in the SDP, setting their political balls rolling. But we learned of numerous problems and the infighting amongst them that informed new decisions, which they are claiming realignment. Adewole Adebayo, the 2023 presidential candidate for the Social Democratic Party (SDP), has unequivocally declared that he will not withdraw his candidacy in favor of former Vice President Atiku Abubakar in the forthcoming 2027 general elections. This statement marks a significant stance within Nigeria’s evolving political landscape, especially considering Atiku’s prominence as a leading figure in the People’s Democratic Party. Adebayo’s refusal to step down reflects his commitment to offering an alternative political vision through the SDP, highlighting the increasing fragmentation and diversification of political competition in Nigeria.

By maintaining his candidacy despite pressure to consolidate opposition forces behind Atiku Abubakar, Adebayo emphasizes the importance of ideological independence and electoral contestation. This dynamic also points to potential challenges within opposition politics, where coalition-building efforts may face resistance from emerging parties seeking distinct platforms. Consequently, Adebayo’s position could influence strategic alliances and voter alignments ahead of Nigeria’s critical 2027 elections. 

The ADC, established in 2005 and officially registered by Nigeria’s Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) in 2006, has gained renewed relevance through this high-profile adoption. Historically endorsed by influential leaders such as former President Olusegun Obasanjo in 2018, the ADC now serves as a viable platform for opposition collaboration. Reports indicate ongoing efforts to restructure and strengthen the party’s organizational framework to support this coalition effectively. This development underscores an effort to create a level playing field for all political actors irrespective of their origins within Nigeria’s multi-ethnic context.

While official public announcements remain forthcoming, insider sources confirm that this coalition reflects a shared commitment among Atiku Abubakar, Peter Obi, and Nasir El-Rufai to present a formidable alternative to APC dominance. However, the political dynamics involving Atiku Abubakar, Peter Obi, and Nasir El-Rufai exemplify the metaphor of oil and water—elements inherently incompatible and resistant to blending. Their divergent ideologies, regional interests, and leadership styles generate tension within any coalition they form, resulting in inherent cracks that undermine unity. This fragmentation fosters uncertainty among supporters and stakeholders, weakening the coalition’s overall cohesion and strategic direction. Such internal discord often manifests as conflicting policy priorities and public disagreements that erode trust both within the alliance and among the electorate.

I believe that the inability of these leaders to reconcile their differences jeopardizes their collective political objectives. The coalition’s instability not only diminishes its bargaining power but also opens avenues for opposition forces to exploit these divisions. Consequently, this loose ground hampers effective governance planning and implementation, reflecting broader challenges in Nigerian politics where heterogeneous interests struggle to find common ground. Therefore, without deliberate efforts towards genuine compromise and collaboration, coalitions involving Atiku, Obi, and El-Rufai remain vulnerable to fragmentation akin to oil separating from water.

* James Bwala, PhD, writes from Abuja.

2027: Atiku, Obi, and El-Rufai remain vulnerable to fragmentation akin to oil separating from water.