Politics
2027: Atiku, Obi, and El-Rufai remain vulnerable to fragmentation akin to oil separating from water.
2027: Atiku, Obi, and El-Rufai remain vulnerable to fragmentation akin to oil separating from water.
By: Dr. James Bwala
If it doesn’t function in SDP, how will it work in ADC? We were taught in basic school science that oil and water do not mix. If this metaphor is any indication, it describes the character and style of the trio who want President Bola Ahmed Tinubu and Vice President Kashim Shettima to leave the Aso Rock Villa by May 29, 2027.
The Nigerian political landscape ahead of the 2027 general elections is witnessing significant realignments, particularly with the emergence of a potential coalition involving Atiku Abubakar (PDP), Peter Obi (Labour Party), and Nasir El-Rufai (Social Democratic Party). This alliance aims to challenge the incumbent President Bola Tinubu and his running mate Shettima, signaling a strategic move to consolidate opposition forces against the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC).
Despite these developments, reports suggest that Atiku, Obi, and El-Rufai are losing political ground due to internal fractures and challenges in harmonizing their distinct party platforms into a cohesive coalition. The APC remains cautious but confident, downplaying the threat posed by this opposition alliance while capitalizing on its incumbency advantages. Moreover, security concerns surrounding key opposition figures like El-rufai and Peter Obi highlight systemic issues that may undermine opposition unity and effectiveness.
While the planned coalition presents a formidable challenge to Tinubu’s administration, its success hinges on overcoming ideological differences and addressing vulnerabilities within opposition ranks. The low voter turnout in previous elections also casts uncertainty on whether such coalitions can mobilize sufficient grassroots support to unseat entrenched incumbents in Nigeria’s complex political environment.
El-Rufai was allegedly said to have run to SDP in order to be a placeholder for Atiku. However, reports breaking suggested that former Vice President Atiku Abubakar, ex-Labour Party presidential candidate Peter Obi, and former Governor Nasir El-Rufai of Kaduna State have collectively adopted the African Democratic Congress (ADC) as the official platform for their opposition coalition ahead of the 2027 Nigerian general election. According to them, this strategic alliance marks a significant realignment in Nigeria’s political landscape. These prominent figures seek to challenge the incumbent President Bola Tinubu and his All Progressives Congress (APC) party. The coalition aims to consolidate opposition forces under a unified banner, thereby enhancing their electoral competitiveness.
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They thought they had found good ground in the SDP, setting their political balls rolling. But we learned of numerous problems and the infighting amongst them that informed new decisions, which they are claiming realignment. Adewole Adebayo, the 2023 presidential candidate for the Social Democratic Party (SDP), has unequivocally declared that he will not withdraw his candidacy in favor of former Vice President Atiku Abubakar in the forthcoming 2027 general elections. This statement marks a significant stance within Nigeria’s evolving political landscape, especially considering Atiku’s prominence as a leading figure in the People’s Democratic Party. Adebayo’s refusal to step down reflects his commitment to offering an alternative political vision through the SDP, highlighting the increasing fragmentation and diversification of political competition in Nigeria.
By maintaining his candidacy despite pressure to consolidate opposition forces behind Atiku Abubakar, Adebayo emphasizes the importance of ideological independence and electoral contestation. This dynamic also points to potential challenges within opposition politics, where coalition-building efforts may face resistance from emerging parties seeking distinct platforms. Consequently, Adebayo’s position could influence strategic alliances and voter alignments ahead of Nigeria’s critical 2027 elections.
The ADC, established in 2005 and officially registered by Nigeria’s Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) in 2006, has gained renewed relevance through this high-profile adoption. Historically endorsed by influential leaders such as former President Olusegun Obasanjo in 2018, the ADC now serves as a viable platform for opposition collaboration. Reports indicate ongoing efforts to restructure and strengthen the party’s organizational framework to support this coalition effectively. This development underscores an effort to create a level playing field for all political actors irrespective of their origins within Nigeria’s multi-ethnic context.
While official public announcements remain forthcoming, insider sources confirm that this coalition reflects a shared commitment among Atiku Abubakar, Peter Obi, and Nasir El-Rufai to present a formidable alternative to APC dominance. However, the political dynamics involving Atiku Abubakar, Peter Obi, and Nasir El-Rufai exemplify the metaphor of oil and water—elements inherently incompatible and resistant to blending. Their divergent ideologies, regional interests, and leadership styles generate tension within any coalition they form, resulting in inherent cracks that undermine unity. This fragmentation fosters uncertainty among supporters and stakeholders, weakening the coalition’s overall cohesion and strategic direction. Such internal discord often manifests as conflicting policy priorities and public disagreements that erode trust both within the alliance and among the electorate.
I believe that the inability of these leaders to reconcile their differences jeopardizes their collective political objectives. The coalition’s instability not only diminishes its bargaining power but also opens avenues for opposition forces to exploit these divisions. Consequently, this loose ground hampers effective governance planning and implementation, reflecting broader challenges in Nigerian politics where heterogeneous interests struggle to find common ground. Therefore, without deliberate efforts towards genuine compromise and collaboration, coalitions involving Atiku, Obi, and El-Rufai remain vulnerable to fragmentation akin to oil separating from water.
* James Bwala, PhD, writes from Abuja.
2027: Atiku, Obi, and El-Rufai remain vulnerable to fragmentation akin to oil separating from water.
APC conducts congress in 17 local councils in Yobe
By: Yahaya Wakili
The All Progressives Congress (APC) local government congresses were conducted successfully in all the seventeen local government areas of Yobe state.
The exercise was conducted by consensus throughout all the 17 local government areas of the state and monitored by the staff of the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC).
The chairman of critical stakeholders of the Nangere local government area, who is also the former deputy governor of Yobe State, Alhaji Aliyu Saleh Bagare, expressed satisfaction with the smooth conduct of the congress.
He commended the party stakeholders of Nangere local government for their maturity, adding that this shows the strong structure and the unity of the party in the area.
Yobe State Commissioner of Works, Engineer Umar Wakil Duddaye, who is also a strong stakeholder of the party, expressed his happiness with the smooth conduct of the congress.
Engineer Duddaye urges the newly elected party executives to observe their success as a call to serve all the APC members in the Nangere local government, Yobe state, and Nigeria as a whole.
APC conducts congress in 17 local councils in Yobe
Zulum Present as INEC Monitors APC Ward Congress in Mafa Ward
By: Our Reporter
Borno State Governor, Professor Babagana Umara Zulum, on Thursday, travelled to Mafa to witness the All Progressives Congress (APC) ward congresses.
Zulum, who was accompanied by APC’s Deputy National Chairman, Ali Bukar Dalori, Senator Kaka Shehu Lawan, Hon Mohammed Jaha (Babawo), and the Speaker of Borno State House of Assembly, expressed satisfaction with the seamless and orderly conduct of the process.p
The governor’s entourage also comprises the APC State Chairman, Bello Ayuba, Senator Baba Kaka Bashir Garbai, among other senior party executives.
Party members across Mafa ward converged to elect new executives. The exercise, which was held simultaneously across the 312 wards in Borno State, was conducted by consensus to ensure unity and harmony within the party.
Borno State Commissioner for Health, Professor Baba Mallam Gana, chaired the ward congress committee, while the Mafa Local Government Electoral Officer of the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), Salihu Muktari, monitored the exercise.
Addressing party faithful shortly after the conclusion of the exercise at Mafa, Zulum expressed gratitude for the peaceful atmosphere. He commended the party’s national leadership for deploying a competent team to oversee the process.
“I am happy with the smooth conduct of this exercise. There was no rancour, no bitterness, and that is the spirit of the APC family. I want to commend the committee sent by the APC national headquarters for their diligence and fair play,” Governor Zulum stated.
The governor also lauded party stakeholders and members in Mafa for their maturity and commitment to the party’s internal democracy, urging the newly elected ward executives to see their emergence as a call to service.
“To the new executives, this is not about personal glory but about taking the party to greater heights at the grassroots. You are the closest to the people, and you must work to unite our members and strengthen our structure,” he added.
The All Progressives Congress (APC) Ward/Local Government Congresses Screening Committees, Screening Appeals Committees, as well as the Ward/LGA Congresses (election) and Congresses Appeal Committees members, headed by Prophet Jones Erue, were also in Mafa to observe the conduct of the exercise.
Zulum Present as INEC Monitors APC Ward Congress in Mafa Ward
APC Group Calls Lokpobiri An Hypocrite Over Remarks Of Diri Emergence As Governor
The Bayelsa State Chapter of the All Progressives Congress (APC) Grassroot Movement (BSAGM), has described remarks of the Minister of State for Petroleum Resources (Oil), Senator Heineken Lokpobiri during Governor Douye Diri 6th anniversary thanksgiving service as hypocritical.
In his goodwill message at the 6th anniversary of Senator Douye Diri as Bayelsa Governor, Senator Lokpobiri guffed not disappointing the general public of usual reckless remarks, that no human should take credit as instrumental to the victory of Senator Douye Diri as Governor of Bayelsa.
In a statement issued to newsmen on Monday by the group spokesman, Mr John Peremobowei, the group condemned in strong terms of the reckless and delusional remarks of the honorable minister during the 6th year thanksgiving service of the prosperity government in Yenagoa.
According to the group statement, Lokpobiri’s thoughtless remarks is affirmation of his political career of ingratitude, and betrayal towards those that nominated him for various public offices undeservedly, from state to federal lawmaker, including two ministerial appointments.
“Lokpobiri battered political career of ingratitude was the reason why he openly fought his benefactor, Chief Timipre Sylva, who nominated him as Minister of State for Agriculture, in the last bayelsa guber election.
“Acknowledging an individual efforts, contributions in fulfillment of God’s purpose in another man’s life here on earth is not in any way taking the glory of God, but acknowledgement of whom God used to accomplish a predetermined task and purpose.
The group describing the honorable minister’s statement as delusional and self-deception, said he should be knowledgeable to comprehend the concept that God uses humans as instruments to accomplish tasks beyond their natural abilities on earth in fulfillment of purpose and destiny.
“Senator Lokpobiri who arrogantly takes the glory for the victory of Mr Wilson Ayakpo Dauyegha as house of assembly member representing Ekeremor Constituency 2, should have attributed the victory of the former lawmaker to God rather than himself, if it’s not self-deception.
“Unfortunately, Governor Diri seems to derive so much pleasure in the reckless statements expressed to appease him against those who worked so hard for his emergence.
The group urged Senator Douye Diri to be query of honorable minister’s characters in his government, saying the remarks were borne out of hatred towards those who worked so hard for his emergence as governor.
“If not for self-deception, hypocrisy, why did Sen. Lokpobiri attributed Mr Siminalayi Fubara’s emergence as Governor of Rivers to the Minister of the Federal Capital Territory, Nyesom Wike, and not God Almighty?
“In his thanksgiving ceremony after inauguration as minister, why did Lokpobiri attributed his appointment to Wike, and not President Tinubu who nominated him to the national assembly, or better still, God?
“Does God only exist in Bayelsa, and not Rivers? Lokpobiri’s thoughtless remarks are unbecoming as a public officer in the federal government.
“Invariably, the governor supporting the dishonest reckless remarks, he has deliberately sowed a seed of ingratitude by not acknowledging the human instruments of Dickson, and several others, and whosoever that succeeds him as governor will definitely tow the path of ingratitude.
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