Politics
2027: Atiku, Obi, and El-Rufai remain vulnerable to fragmentation akin to oil separating from water.
2027: Atiku, Obi, and El-Rufai remain vulnerable to fragmentation akin to oil separating from water.
By: Dr. James Bwala
If it doesn’t function in SDP, how will it work in ADC? We were taught in basic school science that oil and water do not mix. If this metaphor is any indication, it describes the character and style of the trio who want President Bola Ahmed Tinubu and Vice President Kashim Shettima to leave the Aso Rock Villa by May 29, 2027.
The Nigerian political landscape ahead of the 2027 general elections is witnessing significant realignments, particularly with the emergence of a potential coalition involving Atiku Abubakar (PDP), Peter Obi (Labour Party), and Nasir El-Rufai (Social Democratic Party). This alliance aims to challenge the incumbent President Bola Tinubu and his running mate Shettima, signaling a strategic move to consolidate opposition forces against the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC).
Despite these developments, reports suggest that Atiku, Obi, and El-Rufai are losing political ground due to internal fractures and challenges in harmonizing their distinct party platforms into a cohesive coalition. The APC remains cautious but confident, downplaying the threat posed by this opposition alliance while capitalizing on its incumbency advantages. Moreover, security concerns surrounding key opposition figures like El-rufai and Peter Obi highlight systemic issues that may undermine opposition unity and effectiveness.
While the planned coalition presents a formidable challenge to Tinubu’s administration, its success hinges on overcoming ideological differences and addressing vulnerabilities within opposition ranks. The low voter turnout in previous elections also casts uncertainty on whether such coalitions can mobilize sufficient grassroots support to unseat entrenched incumbents in Nigeria’s complex political environment.
El-Rufai was allegedly said to have run to SDP in order to be a placeholder for Atiku. However, reports breaking suggested that former Vice President Atiku Abubakar, ex-Labour Party presidential candidate Peter Obi, and former Governor Nasir El-Rufai of Kaduna State have collectively adopted the African Democratic Congress (ADC) as the official platform for their opposition coalition ahead of the 2027 Nigerian general election. According to them, this strategic alliance marks a significant realignment in Nigeria’s political landscape. These prominent figures seek to challenge the incumbent President Bola Tinubu and his All Progressives Congress (APC) party. The coalition aims to consolidate opposition forces under a unified banner, thereby enhancing their electoral competitiveness.
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They thought they had found good ground in the SDP, setting their political balls rolling. But we learned of numerous problems and the infighting amongst them that informed new decisions, which they are claiming realignment. Adewole Adebayo, the 2023 presidential candidate for the Social Democratic Party (SDP), has unequivocally declared that he will not withdraw his candidacy in favor of former Vice President Atiku Abubakar in the forthcoming 2027 general elections. This statement marks a significant stance within Nigeria’s evolving political landscape, especially considering Atiku’s prominence as a leading figure in the People’s Democratic Party. Adebayo’s refusal to step down reflects his commitment to offering an alternative political vision through the SDP, highlighting the increasing fragmentation and diversification of political competition in Nigeria.
By maintaining his candidacy despite pressure to consolidate opposition forces behind Atiku Abubakar, Adebayo emphasizes the importance of ideological independence and electoral contestation. This dynamic also points to potential challenges within opposition politics, where coalition-building efforts may face resistance from emerging parties seeking distinct platforms. Consequently, Adebayo’s position could influence strategic alliances and voter alignments ahead of Nigeria’s critical 2027 elections.
The ADC, established in 2005 and officially registered by Nigeria’s Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) in 2006, has gained renewed relevance through this high-profile adoption. Historically endorsed by influential leaders such as former President Olusegun Obasanjo in 2018, the ADC now serves as a viable platform for opposition collaboration. Reports indicate ongoing efforts to restructure and strengthen the party’s organizational framework to support this coalition effectively. This development underscores an effort to create a level playing field for all political actors irrespective of their origins within Nigeria’s multi-ethnic context.
While official public announcements remain forthcoming, insider sources confirm that this coalition reflects a shared commitment among Atiku Abubakar, Peter Obi, and Nasir El-Rufai to present a formidable alternative to APC dominance. However, the political dynamics involving Atiku Abubakar, Peter Obi, and Nasir El-Rufai exemplify the metaphor of oil and water—elements inherently incompatible and resistant to blending. Their divergent ideologies, regional interests, and leadership styles generate tension within any coalition they form, resulting in inherent cracks that undermine unity. This fragmentation fosters uncertainty among supporters and stakeholders, weakening the coalition’s overall cohesion and strategic direction. Such internal discord often manifests as conflicting policy priorities and public disagreements that erode trust both within the alliance and among the electorate.
I believe that the inability of these leaders to reconcile their differences jeopardizes their collective political objectives. The coalition’s instability not only diminishes its bargaining power but also opens avenues for opposition forces to exploit these divisions. Consequently, this loose ground hampers effective governance planning and implementation, reflecting broader challenges in Nigerian politics where heterogeneous interests struggle to find common ground. Therefore, without deliberate efforts towards genuine compromise and collaboration, coalitions involving Atiku, Obi, and El-Rufai remain vulnerable to fragmentation akin to oil separating from water.
* James Bwala, PhD, writes from Abuja.
2027: Atiku, Obi, and El-Rufai remain vulnerable to fragmentation akin to oil separating from water.
Politics
Yobe: APC guber candidate speaks on Buni’s confidence in him
Yobe: APC guber candidate speaks on Buni’s confidence in him
By: Yahaya Wakili
The Yobe State All Progressives Congress (APC) gubernatorial candidate, Alhaji Baba Mallam Wali Fcan, mni, has revealed that His Excellency Governor Mai Mala Buni CON’s confidence in him over the years had afforded him the opportunity to serve the state as secretary to the state government for seven years.
Baba Mallam Wali mni disclosed this today when a delegation of critical stakeholders of the All Progressives Congress (APC) from the Gujba local government area paid him a congratulatory visit in Damaturu, the state capital.
He expressed profound appreciation for the visit, adding that this overwhelming visit shows solidarity and confidence in his candidacy.
According to Mallam Wali, Governor Mai Mala Buni’s confidence in him over the years had afforded him the opportunity to serve the state as secretary to the state government for seven years.
He assured the stakeholders that he would provide inclusive and participatory leadership by carrying every citizen along irrespective of political, social, or regional affiliations.
The acting secretary to the state government, who is also the son of the soil, Dr. Mohammed Goje, leading the delegation, described Alhaji Baba Mallam Wali as a seasoned administrator and accomplished public servant.
“The emergence of Mallam Wali was a well-deserved recognition of his competence, integrity, and commitment to the development of Yobe State to a greater height,” Dr. Goje said.
He assured the candidate of the continued support, loyalty, and commitment of the people of the Gujba local government area, noting that we would remain steadfast in our support for the APC and its candidate in the 2027 general elections.
Yobe: APC guber candidate speaks on Buni’s confidence in him
Politics
VP Shettima’s Invest Lagos Summit: A contest of narratives on both the Dangote and Abdulsamad empires.
VP Shettima’s Invest Lagos Summit: A contest of narratives on both the Dangote and Abdulsamad empires.
By: Dr James Bwala
Vice President Kashim Shettima’s recent statement at the Invest Lagos Summit, which sparked significant controversy and backlash from various quarters, particularly regarding his remarks about Africa’s richest men, Aliko Dangote and Abdul Samad Rabiu. The vice president asserted that Lagos, not Kano, produced these business magnates, a comment that many interpreted as dismissive of Kano’s historical commercial significance. However, this reaction stems largely from a misinterpretation of Shettima’s words and an overlooking of the broader context in which his remarks were made. It is crucial to understand and defend the vice president’s statement, recognising the economic dynamics at play and the positive intent behind his message.
Vice President Shettima’s assertion that Lagos produced Africa’s richest men was not intended as an erasure of Kano’s rich commercial heritage or an undervaluing of the northern roots of these business icons. Instead, it was a contextual observation highlighting Lagos as the continent’s economic powerhouse and a pivotal hub where business ideas are scaled and transformed into thriving enterprises. Lagos is Africa’s largest sub-national economy, characterised by its vibrant market activities, infrastructural advantages, business-friendly policies, and an environment conducive to private sector growth. This city has historically served as a furnace where entrepreneurial ambitions find fertile ground to flourish and expand. Shettima’s point was that while the initial entrepreneurial instincts and businesses may have originated elsewhere, including Kano, it is within Lagos that these ventures matured into the colossal economic entities they are today.
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The backlash, particularly from northern commentators and traditional leaders like Emir Muhammadu Sanusi II of Kano, reflects a common regional sensitivity towards identity and recognition. The Emir’s response centred on Kano’s longstanding reputation as a “centre of commerce”, emphasising the city’s role in shaping fundamental entrepreneurial skills and traditions inherited by figures like Dangote and Rabiu. While this perspective honours Kano’s historic significance, it inadvertently overlooks the nuance in Shettima’s statement—that the vice president did not deny Kano’s foundational influence but instead underscored Lagos’s role in providing a strategic platform for growth and scaling operations. The criticism arises from conflating birthplace or origin with the locus of economic success. Recognising Lagos as the city where these businesses “came to the limelight” is not a negation of their roots but an acknowledgement of pragmatic economic realities.
Shettima’s remarks must be viewed through the lens of economic pragmatism rather than political rivalry or regional contestation. Lagos has been, and remains, Nigeria’s commercial nerve centre and a critical node in Africa’s trade and investment networks. Its infrastructure, regulatory frameworks, access to ports, financial markets, and international connectivity create unique advantages that entrepreneurs can leverage to multiply their wealth and impact. Both Aliko Dangote and Abdul Samad Rabiu have attested to the enabling environment provided by Lagos State governments, which implemented policies fostering private-sector investments surpassing $30 billion. These acknowledgements underscore the integral role Lagos played in their skyrocketing success, validating Shettima’s emphasis on Lagos’s contributions without negating Kano’s entrepreneurial legacy.
READ ALSO: https://newsng.ng/radical-approach-ways-of-ending-the-menace-of-insecurity-in-nigeria/
It is also imperative to contextualise the timing and nature of the criticism directed at the vice president. Notably, some individuals and groups who vociferously objected to Shettima’s Lagos-centric remarks had remained conspicuously silent during other contentious moments, such as when the vice president defended the Dangote Refinery amid an industrial dispute with the Petroleum and Natural Gas Senior Staff Association of Nigeria (PENGASSAN) in late 2025. During that dispute, Shettima described Dangote as an “institution” deserving protection, a stance that drew criticism from labour unions but highlighted his consistent recognition of the vital role played by business leaders in Nigeria’s economic fabric. This selective outrage suggests that the current backlash is less about objective critique and more about entrenched regional loyalties or political manoeuvring as learnt in political communications.
The misrepresentation of Kashim Shettima’s position reveals a broader challenge in Nigerian public discourse—a tendency to pre-emptively judge and politicise statements without engaging with their substance or intent. The eagerness to attack the vice president before fully understanding the context exemplifies a mindset that undermines balanced evaluation and constructive debate. Instead of appreciating the VP’s highlighting of Lagos as an epicentre of enterprise and resilience, detractors have chosen to ignite divisive sentiments that distract from economic cooperation and national unity. This pattern of reaction fuels unnecessary regional tensions, which ultimately hinder the country’s collective progress.
READ ALSO: https://newsng.ng/radical-approach-ways-of-ending-the-menace-of-insecurity-in-nigeria/
From a professional standpoint, it is essential to champion nuanced communication and responsible leadership. Vice President Shettima’s remarks align with an economic truth that transcends parochial interests: that success in business often requires not just ingenuity and grit but access to supportive environments where ideas can scale. Nurturing such hubs—like Lagos—is vital for Nigeria’s sustained development and global competitiveness. Recognising and celebrating Lagos’s role, therefore, should not be viewed as an affront to other regions but as a call to replicate such enabling conditions nationwide. Every region, including Kano, must strive to provide similar platforms to nurture and propel their homegrown talents and enterprises.
Vice President Kashim Shettima’s comments at the Invest Lagos Summit were a factual, context-driven affirmation of Lagos’s status as Africa’s premier economic hub, where entrepreneurial ventures achieve their full potential. His statement was neither dismissive of Kano’s historic commercial contributions nor an attempt to diminish the foundational roles played by northern business traditions. Instead, it was a candid recognition of Lagos’s unique capacity to nurture and elevate business successes on an unprecedented scale. The vehement backlash—fueled by misinterpretation and regional sensitivities—serves as a reminder of the need for careful listening, thoughtful analysis, and avoidance of partisan attacks in national conversations. As Nigerians, we can foster unity and propel the country towards inclusive prosperity by embracing diverse pathways to success and acknowledging the layered realities of economic growth. Future critiques should engage constructively with leaders’ insights, considering both intent and context before passing judgements. Only through such mature discourse can Nigeria harness its full economic potential and build a harmonious, thriving society.
* James Bwala, PhD, writes from Abuja.
VP Shettima’s Invest Lagos Summit: A contest of narratives on both the Dangote and Abdulsamad empires.
Politics
Forum condemns abusive language on Atiku
Forum condemns abusive language on Atiku
North-East Elders and Youth Forum, Adamawa Chapter has strongly rejected and condemned the abusive language attributed to the former Vice President Atiku Abubakar by the former Secretary to the Government of the Federation (SGF), Mr Babachir Lawal.
Hamza Sa’ad Dasin, the National Leader of the forum stated this during a press briefing in Yola that Lawal accused Atiku Abubakar of manipulating the recent ADC primary election results while describing him as a religious and tribal bigot.
“Well, that’s not the problem, because leaving or staying with the party remains his absolute right; the most alarming and worrisome approach by the former SGF was his utterances against the Former Vice President.
“Accusing him of being religious and tribal bigot, and even went further to calling him KACHALLA, which connotes direct linkage with banditry”, he said.
He said, Atiku Abubakar, socially and politically remains the symbol of unity Nigeria as he married from South West, South-East and North-East “So he is symbolically democratic even in his own house”.
Dasin further said that Atiku has a very large heart that accommodates all irrespective of religious, tribal or sectional inclinations.
“This can be ascertained by looking at the people surrounding him. He is a believer of cultural multiplicity.
“When Boko Haram entered Mubi in Adamawa State, Atiku used his personal resources to bring in hunters and traditional fighters from different parts of northern Nigeria to come and assist.
“And they eventually succeeded in driving them away, killing a large number of them. This is to tell you that Atiku has never, can never and will never be a supporter of banditry, so count him out of being a KACHALLA”, he said.
He further explained that Atiku is a well recognized Political Guru, not only in Nigeria but in the world.
“He is considered one of the best politicians in Africa and the world”, he said.
Forum condemns abusive language on Atiku
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