Kashim Shettima: Understanding Farooq Kperogi’s arguments on Tinubu’s 2027 ticket

By: Dr. James Bwala

The interplay of identity, symbolism, and electoral coalitions remains a defining feature of political calculations. Prof. Farooq Kperogi’s article, “The Shettima Danger for Tinubu,” brings to the fore a nuanced analysis of the 2023 Tinubu-Shettima political alliance and its implications for the upcoming 2027 elections. At first glance, one might dismiss Kperogi’s arguments as overblown or reductionist, interpreting the situation purely through a lens of personal relationships or conventional political maneuvers. However, a deeper examination reveals that Kperogi’s article is a persuasive and compelling warning about how ignoring the complex dynamics of identity blocs and political symbolism could imperil Tinubu’s ambitions. Kperogi’s insights, therefore, must be taken seriously by political actors, analysts, and stakeholders as they unravel the political future of Nigeria’s ruling party.

Kperogi’s central contentions revolve around what he terms “emotional cartography”—the phenomenon where voting behavior in Nigeria is strongly influenced by identity-based sentimental loyalty to ethnic, regional, and religious affiliations. The Tinubu–Shettima ticket of 2023 is not merely an example of a Muslim-Muslim alliance as popularly debated but rather a strategic partnership representing a powerful Yoruba–Northern Muslim electoral coalition. Tinubu, as a Yoruba political titan, symbolized the southwestern, populous, and politically vibrant Yoruba bloc, while Shettima represented the Northern Muslim electorate, a significant demographic force that has historically influenced election outcomes. This alliance functioned not just on religious credentials but on broader identity representation that allowed different groups to feel politically validated and included in governance.

READ ALSO: https://newsng.ng/2027-when-tinubus-endorsement-of-vice-president-kashim-shettimas-unwavering-support-speaks-volumes/

To understand the stakes, one must appreciate how Nigerian electoral politics operate under this framework. Identity politics, though often criticized for perpetuating division, remains a primary mechanism through which large sections of the population interpret their political interests and participation. For many Nigerians, political representation is not only about policies or ideology but also about whether they see their group’s history, values, and concerns visibly acknowledged and safeguarded. Kperogi emphasizes that emotional cartography generates an implicit contract: when a political ticket includes representatives from major ethnic and religious blocks, it reassures those constituencies that their place in the power structure is secure. Conversely, when this balance shifts or is disrupted, it risks alienating those blocs, triggering voter apathy, backlash, or realignment.

This dynamic makes the prospect of removing Shettima from the 2027 Tinubu ticket particularly perilous. According to Kperogi, Shettima’s presence was foundational to the 2023 electoral success because he symbolically anchored Northern Muslim support. The North is not monolithic, but the Northern Muslim constituency comprises a notable voting bloc that contributed significantly to Tinubu’s victory. Removing Shettima signals more than just a personnel change; it potentially conveys to Northern Muslims that their symbolic representation within the ruling coalition is being diminished or erased. Such a perception, Kperogi warns, would likely fracture existing alliances and result in a loss of critical votes during the next election cycle.

READ ALSO: https://newsng.ng/2027-when-tinubus-endorsement-of-vice-president-kashim-shettimas-unwavering-support-speaks-volumes/

Also, Kperogi critiques the assumption that replacing Shettima with a Northern Christian candidate would simply substitute one identity for another and thus maintain coalition stability. This overlooks key realities about the shifting affiliations and political histories of Northern Christians. Many Northern Christian voters have already gravitated toward alternatives such as Peter Obi, making them a less reliable base for Tinubu’s coalition vis-à-vis Northern Muslims. Hence, swapping Shettima for a Northern Christian does not guarantee a straightforward transfer of votes; instead, it risks weakening the Northern bloc’s overall cohesion in favor of less predictable political outcomes. In Kperogi’s assessment, this maneuver could cause Tinubu to lose more ground than he gains.

Beyond electoral arithmetic, Kperogi’s argument also extends into the broader realm of political sociology and conflict studies within Nigeria. Throughout history, Northern political elites have often leveraged religious identity—particularly Muslim solidarity—to mobilize voters and address perceived marginalization or exclusion in the national power matrix. Displacing Shettima, who embodies this Northern Muslim representation, could rekindle grievances and exacerbate fault lines that have periodically erupted into tension or violence. Thus, the “Shettima danger” not only encapsulates electoral risks but also potential destabilization of Nigeria’s delicate interethnic and interreligious equilibrium.

READ ALSO: https://newsng.ng/2027-when-tinubus-endorsement-of-vice-president-kashim-shettimas-unwavering-support-speaks-volumes/

Critically, Kperogi’s analysis does not endorse or glorify identity politics; rather, it pragmatically acknowledges it as an existing reality that shapes Nigerian political behavior. His contribution lies in highlighting that political actors who ignore these identity perceptions do so at their own peril. The idea that electoral success can be achieved solely through policy platforms or technocratic governance is, in Nigeria’s context, incomplete without considering the symbolism of inclusion and representation among diverse communities. Tinubu’s political fortunes, therefore, hinge upon maintaining a coalition that respects and reflects the ethnic and religious mosaic of Nigeria’s electorate.

Opponents of Kperogi’s view might argue that emphasizing identity risks perpetuating sectarianism and undermining efforts toward national integration. They may advocate for transcendence beyond primordial affiliations toward programmatic politics focusing on issues like economic development, security, and social justice. While such aspirations are noble and necessary for Nigeria’s long-term progress, the immediate political reality remains that identity-based emotional loyalty strongly influences voter behavior and political legitimacy. Dismissing this factor risks alienating vital constituencies and undermining political stability—a cost that Nigerian leaders cannot afford in the volatile current climate.

READ ALSO https://newsng.ng/2027-when-tinubus-endorsement-of-vice-president-kashim-shettimas-unwavering-support-speaks-volumes/

Indeed, Kperogi’s concept of emotional cartography offers a useful analytic framework to bridge the divide between identity politics critics and proponents. It encourages recognizing identity as a sociopolitical phenomenon shaped by history, culture, and lived experience rather than a mere obstacle to democracy. Through this lens, politicians like Tinubu must navigate identity sensibilities skillfully, balancing inclusivity and national unity without erasing distinct group identities. The Shettima matter exemplifies this challenge: it requires sensitivity to how symbolic representation operates alongside substantive governance to sustain broad-based political coalitions.

The assessment of the “Shettima danger” for Tinubu’s 2027 ticket should be regarded as a persuasive cautionary tale grounded in Nigeria’s political realities. Far from an academic abstraction, his insights illuminate why removing Shettima risks fracturing a crucial electoral coalition based on Yoruba and Northern Muslim alliances, thereby jeopardizing Tinubu’s political prospects. More importantly, it underscores how identity, symbolism, and emotional cartography continue to shape Nigerian politics in profound ways. For Tinubu and his party, success depends not only on policy effectiveness but also on adeptly managing the complex mosaic of representation and inclusion that defines Nigeria’s democratic landscape. To ignore Kperogi’s warnings is to court a political miscalculation with potentially far-reaching consequences for Nigeria’s fragile unity and democratic stability.

* James Bwala, PhD, writes from Abuja.

Kashim Shettima: Understanding Farooq Kperogi’s arguments on Tinubu’s 2027 ticket

APC Bauchi: Counting the Losses

By: Michael Olukayode

The All Progressives Congress (APC) in Bauchi State is gradually entering one of the most critical moments in its political history. What should have been a period of consolidation, unity, and strategic preparation has instead turned into growing confusion, internal resentment, massive defections, and the dangerous creation of unnecessary political enemies within the party.

Sadly, many loyal supporters believe this crisis was avoidable.

The root of the problem lies in the failure of the party to manage its internal affairs with fairness, openness, and genuine consultation. What many party members expected to be a transparent political process instead appeared to become a carefully controlled arrangement driven by personal interests and future political calculations.

Today, APC Bauchi is paying the price.

Unfortunately, many loyal supporters do not believe that M.A. Abubakar currently possesses the political strength, energy, or widespread acceptance needed to successfully confront the opposition in the present political climate. Rather than generating excitement and renewed confidence within the party, his emergence has instead deepened internal divisions, increased frustration among supporters, and accelerated defections across different political structures.

The political sidelining of some prominent aspirants such as Amb. Yusuf Maitama Tuggar remains one of the most painful developments for many supporters across the state. To thousands of APC loyalists, Tuggar represented not just another aspirant, but a modern political force capable of rebuilding confidence in the party and attracting broader public support.

He brought national visibility, diplomatic experience, youth appeal, intellectual strength, and growing grassroots acceptance. More importantly, he represented hope for a new generation of APC politics in Bauchi State.0

Unfortunately, many supporters now feel that merit, popularity, and acceptability were sacrificed for personal political arrangements.

What makes the situation even more dangerous is the perception that the entire strategy was designed around short-term interests rather than the long-term survival of the party. Many believe the arrangement was structured to return a former governor for a single remaining term while preparing the ground for another political ambition afterward.

This perception has become very obvious that the political damages caused is undeniable.

Today, APC Bauchi is no longer only losing members but it is creating more enemies.

And in politics, there is a major difference between losing supporters and creating opponents motivated by disappointment, anger, and exclusion.

Across the state:

• Influential stakeholders are defecting.
• Grassroots coordinators are withdrawing their loyalty.
• Youth supporters are becoming frustrated.
• Local party structures are weakening.
• Silent resentment is spreading across many political camps.

Some of the individuals leaving the party are not ordinary members. They are people with political structures, loyal followership, electoral value, and influence within their communities. Every defection weakens the confidence of remaining supporters and strengthens rival political platforms.

The most dangerous part is that many of these crises are self-inflicted.

A political party cannot continue to sideline committed stakeholders, ignore growing dissatisfaction, and expect unity to survive automatically. Politics requires inclusion, consultation, and respect for those who contribute to building the party.

Unfortunately, APC Bauchi is beginning to appear divided between those protecting the future of the party and those protecting personal political interests.

This is creating bitterness that may take years to repair.

Many supporters who once defended the party passionately are now questioning their place within the system. Others have already moved on politically, while many more remain silent observers waiting for the next opportunity to make their decisions.

The reality is simple:
No political party grows stronger by humiliating its strongest assets.

No political structure survives for long while continuously creating internal enemies.

And no party with a weak candidate can successfully challenge opposition.

Therefore, this is a sincere call for urgent intervention before the situation becomes irreversible

The leadership of our great party APC, at both state and national levels, must act immediately.

Most importantly, the party must recognize the strategic political value of leaders like Amb. Yusuf Maitama Tuggar, whose influence, acceptance, and credibility remain important for the future strength of APC in Bauchi State.

Time is running out.
The warning signs are already visible.

The defections are increasing.

The frustration is growing.

And the losses are becoming impossible to ignore.

APC Bauchi must decide quickly whether it wants to build a united future or continue counting the losses.

Michael Olukayode is a seasoned journalist and public analyst

APC Bauchi: Counting the Losses

2027: When Tinubu’s endorsement of Vice President Kashim Shettima’s unwavering support speaks volumes

By: Dr. James Bwala

On Sunday, May 24, 2026, at the Bola Ahmed Tinubu International Conference Centre in Abuja, President Bola Ahmed Tinubu delivered a powerful acceptance speech upon his nomination as the All Progressives Congress (APC) flag bearer for the 2027 presidential election. His words were not only an affirmation of his leadership vision but also a robust endorsement of Vice President Kashim Shettima’s unwavering support and integral role within this administration. This public commendation serves as a cornerstone for dispelling mistrust and malicious rumors surrounding the office of the vice president, creating a persuasive narrative about unity, shared purpose, and inclusive governance for Nigeria’s future.

At the heart of President Tinubu’s speech was a resounding acknowledgment of Vice President Kashim Shettima as a “pillar of support” during an undoubtedly challenging period in Nigeria’s political and socio-economic history. The relevance of this commendation transcends mere formality; it underscores a fundamental truth about effective governance—the indispensable role of mutual trust and partnership between a president and their vice president. In an era where political alliances are frequently strained by internal discord and where opposition forces eagerly exploit any hint of division, Tinubu’s public appreciation is an unequivocal message: the administration is cohesive and resilient.

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The phrase, “The journey so far is challenging, but your support is encouraging; there is no doubt about that,” encapsulates the essence of collaborative leadership. These words reflect not only the trials faced by the government but also reveal the vice president’s steadfast commitment to the administration’s objectives. By highlighting Shettima’s role, Tinubu is affirming that progress requires collective effort, especially in contexts fraught with socioeconomic challenges, security concerns, and institutional reforms. This articulation fosters confidence among Nigerians, signaling that the leadership is united in purpose and determined to overcome adversity through solidarity.

The president’s direct address to Vice President Shettima—“Kashim Shettima, thank you very much. Together and with the help of God Almighty, we shall build a more secure, united, and prosperous Nigeria for generations to come”—is more than a personal note of gratitude. It is a strategic reaffirmation of shared responsibility and future ambition. This statement embodies a forward-looking vision, grounded in faith and partnership, which are essential for sustaining momentum towards national goals. By invoking the divine, Tinubu connects with the deeply spiritual sensibilities of many Nigerians, thereby lending moral weight to their joint mission.

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The implications of this endorsement extend significantly beyond the immediate political context. It dispels the pernicious rumors and speculation often exploited by political opponents or detractors who seek to destabilize the government by sowing seeds of distrust. The so-called “Shettima issue,” which has been circulated as an attempt to insinuate discord within the presidency, is effectively nullified by the president’s explicit praise and recognition. In doing so, Tinubu not only strengthens the internal cohesion of his administration but also sends a clear signal to the Nigerian populace and international observers that the government operates on principles of unity and transparency.

President Tinubu’s commitment to building “an even more inclusive government.” One that listens. The government that learns and leads with the best interest of Nigerians at heart” resonates deeply with democratic ideals. This pledge offers reassurance that the administration values the diverse voices and experiences of Nigeria’s multifaceted society. An inclusive government is a government that embraces the richness of its ethnic, religious, and cultural diversity, ensuring that policies and programs reflect the common good rather than sectional interests. It is a decisive stance against divisiveness and exclusion, which have historically plagued Nigerian politics.

READ ALSO: https://newsng.ng/2027-vp-shettima-is-the-soul-of-the-tinubu-ticket/

In advancing this vision, Tinubu leverages the symbolic and practical significance of Shettima’s role as vice president. Shettima’s inclusiveness, experience, and political acumen complement the president’s agenda, reinforcing the government’s capacity to implement policies aimed at national reconciliation and development. The administration’s unity at the highest level reassures stakeholders—both domestic and international—that Nigeria remains on a path of political stability and economic recovery.

Critics may argue that such public acknowledgments are politically motivated, designed to mask deeper issues within the government. However, it is vital to recognize that leadership communication in a democracy must be transparent and deliberate. Public affirmations of unity, especially amid turbulent political climates, serve an essential function in maintaining citizens’ trust and preventing the erosion of institutional credibility. This speech is a strategic instrument that stabilizes the political environment by fostering a collective identity and purpose.

READ ALSO: https://newsng.ng/2027-vp-shettima-is-the-soul-of-the-tinubu-ticket/

Building on this foundation, the emphasis on security, unity, and prosperity as core objectives highlights the administration’s responsiveness to the most pressing concerns of Nigerians. Security challenges, including insurgency, banditry, and communal clashes, have long undermined Nigeria’s potential. By articulating a shared commitment with Shettima to address these issues, Tinubu signals a coordinated approach that enhances the government’s legitimacy and effectiveness.

Similarly, the insistence on unity reflects an acute awareness of Nigeria’s complex social fabric and the need for harmony across ethnic and regional lines. Unity is not merely a political slogan but a prerequisite for sustainable development and peace. Through this lens, the administration’s rhetoric serves as a beacon of hope that transcends partisan divides, inviting all Nigerians to partake in nation-building.

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The aspiration for prosperity aligns with developmental priorities such as economic diversification, job creation, infrastructure development, and education reform. By linking these goals to the administration’s unified leadership, Tinubu inspires confidence that the government is positioned to deliver tangible results that will benefit current and future generations.

President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s public appreciation of Vice President Kashim Shettima at his acceptance speech for the 2027 APC presidential candidacy exemplifies effective political leadership rooted in unity, inclusiveness, and shared vision. It confronts and dispels damaging rumors, reinforces a message of collective responsibility, and lays a foundation for an administration committed to listening, learning, and leading with the people’s best interests at heart. 

READ ALSO: https://newsng.ng/2027-vp-shettima-is-the-soul-of-the-tinubu-ticket/

For Nigeria to navigate its myriad challenges and achieve lasting security, unity, and prosperity, such cohesive leadership is indispensable. The partnership between Tinubu and Shettima presents a compelling model for collaborative governance, inspiring a hopeful trajectory for the nation’s democratic future.

* James Bwala, PhD, writes from Abuja

2027: When Tinubu’s endorsement of Vice President Kashim Shettima’s unwavering support speaks volumes