News
War Against Niger: Why Nigeria Should Look Before It Leaps
War Against Niger: Why Nigeria Should Look Before It Leaps
By Zagazola Makama
Carefully observing the geopolitical map of AFRICA, WAGNER Operation and disassociation from WEST hegemony straddles a straight line from coasts of SENEGAL to SUDAN where a geo-strategic interest lies.
It appears the diversion is in AFRICA, which has become the proxy area for the UKRAINE – RUSSIA war.
In retrospect, the campaign against WESTERN hegemony, especially FRANCE, had eaten deep into AFRICA and has potentially no reverse, as calls rose for, first, AFRICAN leadership to own their countries’ wealth and, second, a united AFRICA.
Equally, WAGNER, an extension of RUSSIAN military diplomacy, spearheaded a Psychological Operations measure to divert attention of NATO and other WESTERN powers’ attention as EUROPE continues to become tense over the UKRAINE – RUSSIA conflict.
For now, WESTERN dominance is on the verge of pulling more resources to maintain relations with AFRICA.
Whatever the consequences, a RUSSIA-led support virus had already been inoculated into the streams of support by part of AFRICA to take sides.
This, therefore, forms the context in which the buildup of tension between the NIGERIA-led ECOWAS and NIGER REPUBLIC over the recent coup overthrowing the Mohammed Bazoum-led democratically elected government of the West African francophone nation should be viewed.
The Bola Ahmed Tinubu-led government of Nigeria seems hell-bent on leading the combined ECOWAS military to storm Niamey, root out the coupists, free Bazoum from their captivity and reinstate him president of NIGER.
There are numerous salient facts with regard to NIGERIA-NIGER Republic relations that deserve crucial consideration before the ECOWAS forces pounce on NIGER.
This consideration is imperative for NIGERIA to avoid being deceived into a proxy war that will, in the long run, cause its drastic and cataclysmic fall from the enviable heights of West African Giant and, possibly, African leadership.
The most-startling of these facts.
Seven states in NIGERIA, stretching from the North-West to the North-East geopolitical zones border NIGER. The peoples of these states savor centuries-old sociocultural affinity and amity with the peoples of the southern flank of NIGER, contributing substantially to the economies of the countries for ages.
These close ties are about to be crushed by the ECOWAS forces.
Intelligence suggests despite sanctions by ECOWAS, BENIN Republic has opened up borders to NIGER, implying its disagreement with the gang up measure against its neighbor. Suspicion places NIGERIA in tight corners as pro-WEST to act spontaneously against its neighbor.
This is possibly as part of WAGNER psychological Operation to seek further movement of the PMC personnel into NIAMEY in part and WEST AFRICA as a whole.
NIGERIA-NIGER relations have always been excellent up until now. For instance, NIGER is always actively in support of NIGERIA during Counter insurgency Operations of the Multinational Joint Task Force and provides ISR as well as Air Interdiction during most missions.
Military operations, economic transfer and numerous other friendly relations exist between both nations.
The coup may have changed the politics but has not disemboweled the close ties or similarities in cultural and social identity between NIGERIA and her neighbors.
It is assumed the target to frustrate NIGERIA’s key role economically, politically and militarily after solely containing more than a decade old insurgency is likely.
Hence, NIGERIA should continue a broader defense diplomacy with its neighbors to maintain a steady course in foreign policy.
The strong ties NIGERIA with its neighbors should be used to overcome plans to utilize AFRICA as grounds for proxy war between the WESTERN and EASTERN powers.
There is a need for NIGERIA to showcase the big-brother position in aligning with AFRICA’s unity and suggest to her neighbors that despite all shortcomings, measures other than coup may not be a solution.
There is a need to call on the leadership of MALI, BURKINA FASO, GUINEA and others to realize support for one another as well as to devise means of solving the major issues of developing strategies against terrorism and western hegemony.
It will, therefore, be unfortunate to deploy force to NIGER.
Information suggests GHANA, TOGO, GAMBIA and LIBERIA have said they will not deploy troops to NIGER. More so, Mali, Burkina Faso, and Guinea, three West African nations, have backed the coup leaders in Niger, a move that poses a threat to regional stability. this is a trap for NIGERIA.
NIGERIA, for her own good, must not fall into this trap. It could be disastrous for, first, its status in the West African region and, indeed, the entire African continent; and, second, its existence as one enviably politically, diplomatically and economically powerful entity in global affairs.
The possible abstention of some of the West African nations from the impending war is not because ECOWAS does not have the capability to deploy a force to NIGER, but because other members will not commit as much resources as expected.
Moreover, ECOWAS will have to explain why it didn’t deploy similar forces to BURKINA FASO, MALI and GUINEA where their military also toppled democratic governments.
Generally, it will be a big strategic miscalculation for NIGERIA to commit to such externalities, with the several internal challenges facing the country.
A diplomatic solution to NIGER’s problem will be the best at this moment. NIGERIA has nothing to prove to the world except its proficiency in diplomatic relations and standing tall in might as a big brother. NIGERIA’s military diplomacy should play a key role in turning key issues.
NIGERIA faces devastating consequences should the war be carried out against NIGER.
Nigeria is strategically positioned into a geographical zone that it can never Win a War on the NIGER REPUBLIC even if the Military Junta is chased out of Niamey.
The following are definite to be the price of the aggression on the NIGER REPUBLIC by ECOWAS by the West African allied forces:
First: Losing President Bazoum. For sure, the first consequences of the War on NIGER is that NIGERIA will only have the corpse of MOHAMMED BAZOUM whom PRESIDENT TINUBU led ECOWAS is so anxious to reinstate immediately Niamey is captured.
Is Nigeria or any fighter for the restoration of democracy ready for that to happen?
Second: More enmity will emanate against Nigeria within the West African region. The country will have more regional enemies than friends because all the Countries bordering NIGER REPUBLIC will not condone the aggression even if they restrain from attacking Nigeria in defense of their ally in the protection of their sovereignty.
Third: Diplomatic relations among West African nations could worsen, leading to the possible collapse of ECOWAS. This situation would be catastrophic to the economy of the region as free movement of its citizens becomes a big regional threat. Already Niger Republic is hosting over 300,000 Nigerian Refugees in Diffa, Bosso and Tumour. These IDPs are already facing stigmatization and humiliation from their host and soon they may be asked to leave.
Four: There could be a proliferation of unprecedentedly frightening forms of terrorism as a result of the presence of huge amounts of Bõko Harām Insurgents across the borders of the two countries that stretched into Mali, Burkina Faso up to the Sene-Gambian Region. Fledgeling or the collapse of ECOWAS would facilitate the infiltration of terrorist groups into the countries much easier than what happened to ISIS’s cross border operations in Syria, Iraq, Turkey and parts of Egypt’s Sinai mountainous region.
In this scenario, more massive funding will be made towards sponsoring “Terrorists Groups”, thus creating more others by International Agencies who have been enemies to “Global Peace” to control sensitively viable areas of economic importance for eventually ceaseless attacks such as the ongoing “Armed Banditry and Kidnappings” that are rampant in the Region.
Five: Inflation and economic recession is definitely going to hit Nigeria immediately the war starts, causing millions of people across the region to lose their jobs, causing high cost of living for the ordinary citizens of both countries.
Six: Famine and rampant deaths would be inevitable as a result of the hampering of all agricultural activities, with the war intensifying where massive hectares of land shall remain without being harvested for more than 75 percent of the region in the same technical manner Bõko Harām disrupts farming for than a decade throughout most parts of the North-East.
Seven: Massive migration across West Africa, and, possibly, between West Africa and other contiguous regions of the African continent would take place as refugees from both sides keep flooding the Sub-saharan region.
With Nigeria presently finding it difficult to manage the growing humanitarian crisis with millions of its Internally Displaced Persons (IDPS) due to terrorism and banditry, another unsustainable chaotic conditions will be artificially created for it to handle.
For sure, when the drums of War are beaten and the planned aggression on the NIGER REPUBLIC commences, NORTHERN NIGERIA’s (Arēwa) Region, from Gamboru to Kamba, From ILLELA/JIBIYA/MAI-ADUWA/MAIGATARI to OTURKPO would be submerged in total full scale insecurity.
This could threaten the existence of NORTHERN NIGERIA. Once NORTHERN NIGERIA is gone, the official Federation of what is known as Nigeria would be “Badly Bargained”, forever.
Nigeria should look before it leaps.
To be forewarned is to be forearmed!
Zagazola is a Counter-Insurgency expert and security analyst in the Lake Chad region.
War Against Niger: Why Nigeria Should Look Before It Leaps
News
Sahel on edge as sabotage campaigns spread across Niger and Mali, threatening regional stability and economic survival
Sahel on edge as sabotage campaigns spread across Niger and Mali, threatening regional stability and economic survival
By: Zagazola Makama
A sharp escalation in economic sabotage by armed groups in Niger Republic and Mali is deepening instability across the Central Sahel, with fresh attacks on oil and fuel infrastructure pointing to an increasingly insecure landscape for governments, civilians and foreign partners in the region.
The latest incident occurred on Sunday night in Niger Republic’s eastern Diffa Region, where an oil pipeline explosion at Agadem was attributed to the Mouvement Patriotique pour la Libération du Jihad (MPLJ), a newly emergent armed faction led by Moussa Kounai. The group released a video claiming responsibility for damaging a section of the pipeline and vowed further attacks unless the ruling Conseil National pour la Sauvegarde de la Patrie (CNSP) steps down and reinstates constitutional governance.
The MPLJ also accused the junta of supporting foreign rebel groups, specifically naming the Chadian Front pour l’Alternance et la Concorde (FACT), which it alleges operates with the approval and logistical backing of Niger’s transitional military authorities.
Security sources say the attack marks a worrying expansion of anti-state sabotage in Niger, where armed groups such as the Lakurawa network have previously targeted oil infrastructure. These incidents now coincide with sustained assaults by jihadist formations like JNIM and Islamic State Sahel Province, creating an increasingly complex and volatile security environment.
Zagazola warn that the proliferation of armed groups following the 2023 coup has eroded state control, with economic assets such as pipelines, storage facilities and export routes becoming strategic targets for factions seeking bargaining power or political influence. The Agadem basin a cornerstone of Niger’s crude output and a critical link in its export chain to international markets is especially vulnerable.
Meanwhile in neighbouring Mali, the situation has taken on an even more disruptive dimension as the Al-Qaeda-affiliated JNIM intensifies a sweeping fuel blockade that has crippled the country’s economy and strained daily life for millions.
Since September, JNIM fighters have systematically attacked fuel tankers travelling from Senegal and Côte d’Ivoire, routes that account for the majority of Mali’s fuel imports. Tankers have been burned, drivers and security escorts killed, and entire convoys halted by improvised explosive devices and ambushes.
The insurgents are believed to be retaliating against a government directive restricting fuel sales in rural areas, a measure aimed at cutting off jihadist access to diesel and petrol used for mobility, logistics and explosives manufacturing.
The impact has been devastating. Fuel scarcity has worsened Mali’s longstanding electricity crisis, plunging Bamako and several regional capitals into long blackouts. With power plants relying heavily on diesel, factories have shut down, cold-chain food systems are collapsing, and telecommunications have become unreliable.
Government offices, banks and airports are also struggling to maintain normal operations. On Sunday, authorities suspended classes in all schools and universities for two weeks due to the acute shortage.
In rural communities, the blockade coincides with harvest season. Farmers say tractors and irrigation pumps have become idle, threatening crop yields and heightening food insecurity in a country already burdened by displacement and declining agricultural output.
Despite several rounds of negotiations involving community leaders and intermediaries, no agreement has been reached with JNIM. The group appears intent on leveraging the economic pressure to force political concessions from the military-led government.
Security experts say the rising wave of economic sabotage across Niger and Mali reflects a broader trend in the Sahel, where armed groups are increasingly shifting from territorial warfare to strategic economic disruption. By targeting energy supply lines pipelines in Niger and tanker routes in Mali these groups are undermining state capacity, weakening public confidence, and heightening the cost of governance for already fragile juntas.
The dual crises also signaled troubles for neighbouring countries, particularly Nigeria, which shares extensive energy, trade and security ties with Niger. These misattributed attacks or cross-border accusations could trigger diplomatic strains at a time when regional cooperation is crucial.
With militants in both countries signalling readiness for escalated operations, the Sahel is bracing for deeper instability unless coordinated regional and international responses are mobilised to protect critical infrastructure, restore supply chains and contain armed group expansion.
Zagazola Makama is a counter Insurgency Expert and Security Analyst in the Lake Chad region.
Sahel on edge as sabotage campaigns spread across Niger and Mali, threatening regional stability and economic survival
Crime
killings of 259 cattle spark rising tension as attack on herders escalate across Gwer West, Guma in Benue
killings of 259 cattle spark rising tension as attack on herders escalate across Gwer West, Guma in Benue
By: Zagazola Makama
Fresh tension is building in Benue State following coordinated attacks on Fulani herders and the killing of hundreds of cattle in Gwer West and Guma Local Government Areas, in incidents that could trigger another cycle of violence if not urgently addressed.
According to field reports made available to Zagazola Makama, heavily armed men, alleged by herder associations to be members of local security outfits, supported by local security outfits, launched multiple assaults on pastoral communities since Nov. 12, killing an estimated 259 cattle in two separate attacks.
The first incident occurred near Naka in Gwer West LGA, where the government backed security outfits operating on motorcycles and vehicles reportedly targeted herders grazing peacefully in the area. The cattle owners Abdullahi Musa said 50 of his cattle were killed, Wakili Musa another harder said 51 of his livestock were killed while Maibargo Abubakar lost 21 of his cattle in the ambush without any provocation.
Multiple Witnesses said the attackers transported the carcasses of the killed animals into Naka town in broad daylight, where they were seen celebrating. Some of the community members described the attack as “deliberate provocation aimed at escalating ethnic tensions.”
A second attack was recorded the same day behind Okohol village near Ikpam in Guma LGA, where another group of armed men reportedly killed 137 cattle belonging to Alhaji Anaruwa Yongo and his brother. Several carcasses were reportedly removed from the scene while others remained littered across the grazing area.
Sources told Zagazola Makama that military personnel deployed in the affected corridors visited some of the locations after the incidents and confirmed the attacks. Security operatives, however, have not issued an official statement on the attacks while government of Benue remained mum.
Leaders of pastoralist communities described the Benue incidents as part of a “recurring, underreported pattern” of attacks on Fulani herders in several states, including Enugu, Niger and Kebbi. They accuse some local authorities of quietly supporting armed groups that target pastoralists, while only issuing statements when reprisals occur.
Community representatives further allege that despite repeated reports and identification of perpetrators in past incidents, the Benue State Government has not taken concrete steps to halt the killings, creating what they describe as “a climate of impunity that encourages attacks.”
They warn that the continued silence from state actors, coupled with worsening hostilities, risks sparking a renewed wave of communal violence.
They appealed for urgent intervention from federal security agencies, including Defense Headquarters and the Office of the National Security Adviser, to prevent further escalation.
They also called for an impartial investigation into the killings, protection for vulnerable herders, and proactive engagement with community leaders to avert retaliatory attacks.
They described the situation as “a ticking time bomb” and urged the Federal Government to address what they see as a widening security gap that could destabilize the region if left unchecked.
killings of 259 cattle spark rising tension as attack on herders escalate across Gwer West, Guma in Benue
News
Controversial Air Peace Runway Incursion Report: NEFGAD Calls for the Sack of NSIB DG
Controversial Air Peace Runway Incursion Report: NEFGAD Calls for the Sack of NSIB DG
By: Michael Mike
Network for the Actualization of Social Growth and Viable Development (NEFGAD), a civic organisation, has asked President Bola Tinubu to sack with immediate effect the Director General of the Nigerian Safety and Investigation Bureau (NSIB), Mr Alex Badeh Jr. over the recent controversy surrounding the toxicology report.
NEFGAD, during a press conference on Tuesday in Abuja, said the recent controversy surrounding the toxicology report released by the Nigerian Safety and Investigation Bureau (NSIB), and the subsequent strong denial issued by Air Peace, has further deepened concerns about the credibility, professionalism, and operational integrity of the Bureau under its current leadership and the need to call on President Bola Tinubu to sack with immediate effect, the Director General of the NSIB Mr Alex Badeh Jr, to pave the way for thorough investigation in a bid to restore public confidence in the air safety agency.
NEFGAD made the call through its acting head of office Barrister Unekwu Blessing Ojo, who during the press conference emphasized NEFGAD’s position as a critical stakeholder in the aviation sector committed to transparency, accountability, and public safety within Nigeria’s aviation sector expressing profound disappointment in the manner the highly sensitive investigation into the July 2024 runway incursion incident by an Air Peace aircraft was being handled by the NSIB.
She maintained that NSIB is an aviation watchdog whose investigation requires utmost precision, neutrality, and scientific rigour, stressing that any lapse, real or perceived – undermines public trust and jeopardises the confidence of both domestic and international partners in Nigeria’s air safety oversight.
She stated that the conflicting narratives and the lack of clarity from a report issued by the NSIB itself months after the incidents and series of counter claims from Air Peace is troubling and entirely allien to the Nigerian aviation sector, particularly to the operations of the Bureau since inception until Mr Badeh Jr became the Bureau’s Director General, and this has raised legitimate doubts about the Bureau’s internal processes, its adherence to global best practices, and its ability to professionally discharge its statutory mandate.
She noted that at this critical moment, Nigeria an aspiring nation working hard to ensure the air safety of its citizens and attract investment confidence globally cannot afford an aviation investigative body whose operation and leadership inspires controversy rather than confidence.
She said: “In view of the foregoing, the group call for the immediate resignation of the Director-General of the NSIB. This action is essential to restore public trust, protect the integrity of ongoing and future investigations, and pave the way for a transparent review of the Bureau’s operational standards.
“NEFGAD further urge the President to initiate an independent assessment of the NSIB – its leadership structure, investigative protocols, and quality control mechanisms using the Airpeace runway incursion as a test case and ensure that the agency is repositioned for credible, world-class performance.”
NEFGAD vowed mass and possible legal action should Mr Badeh fails to accede to its request to resign, insisting that Nigeria’s aviation safety institutions must operate above reproach and its leadership accountability non-negotiable.
Controversial Air Peace Runway Incursion Report: NEFGAD Calls for the Sack of NSIB DG
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