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War Against Niger: Why Nigeria Should Look Before It Leaps

War Against Niger: Why Nigeria Should Look Before It Leaps
By Zagazola Makama
Carefully observing the geopolitical map of AFRICA, WAGNER Operation and disassociation from WEST hegemony straddles a straight line from coasts of SENEGAL to SUDAN where a geo-strategic interest lies.
It appears the diversion is in AFRICA, which has become the proxy area for the UKRAINE – RUSSIA war.
In retrospect, the campaign against WESTERN hegemony, especially FRANCE, had eaten deep into AFRICA and has potentially no reverse, as calls rose for, first, AFRICAN leadership to own their countries’ wealth and, second, a united AFRICA.
Equally, WAGNER, an extension of RUSSIAN military diplomacy, spearheaded a Psychological Operations measure to divert attention of NATO and other WESTERN powers’ attention as EUROPE continues to become tense over the UKRAINE – RUSSIA conflict.
For now, WESTERN dominance is on the verge of pulling more resources to maintain relations with AFRICA.
Whatever the consequences, a RUSSIA-led support virus had already been inoculated into the streams of support by part of AFRICA to take sides.
This, therefore, forms the context in which the buildup of tension between the NIGERIA-led ECOWAS and NIGER REPUBLIC over the recent coup overthrowing the Mohammed Bazoum-led democratically elected government of the West African francophone nation should be viewed.
The Bola Ahmed Tinubu-led government of Nigeria seems hell-bent on leading the combined ECOWAS military to storm Niamey, root out the coupists, free Bazoum from their captivity and reinstate him president of NIGER.
There are numerous salient facts with regard to NIGERIA-NIGER Republic relations that deserve crucial consideration before the ECOWAS forces pounce on NIGER.
This consideration is imperative for NIGERIA to avoid being deceived into a proxy war that will, in the long run, cause its drastic and cataclysmic fall from the enviable heights of West African Giant and, possibly, African leadership.
The most-startling of these facts.
Seven states in NIGERIA, stretching from the North-West to the North-East geopolitical zones border NIGER. The peoples of these states savor centuries-old sociocultural affinity and amity with the peoples of the southern flank of NIGER, contributing substantially to the economies of the countries for ages.
These close ties are about to be crushed by the ECOWAS forces.
Intelligence suggests despite sanctions by ECOWAS, BENIN Republic has opened up borders to NIGER, implying its disagreement with the gang up measure against its neighbor. Suspicion places NIGERIA in tight corners as pro-WEST to act spontaneously against its neighbor.
This is possibly as part of WAGNER psychological Operation to seek further movement of the PMC personnel into NIAMEY in part and WEST AFRICA as a whole.
NIGERIA-NIGER relations have always been excellent up until now. For instance, NIGER is always actively in support of NIGERIA during Counter insurgency Operations of the Multinational Joint Task Force and provides ISR as well as Air Interdiction during most missions.
Military operations, economic transfer and numerous other friendly relations exist between both nations.
The coup may have changed the politics but has not disemboweled the close ties or similarities in cultural and social identity between NIGERIA and her neighbors.
It is assumed the target to frustrate NIGERIA’s key role economically, politically and militarily after solely containing more than a decade old insurgency is likely.
Hence, NIGERIA should continue a broader defense diplomacy with its neighbors to maintain a steady course in foreign policy.
The strong ties NIGERIA with its neighbors should be used to overcome plans to utilize AFRICA as grounds for proxy war between the WESTERN and EASTERN powers.
There is a need for NIGERIA to showcase the big-brother position in aligning with AFRICA’s unity and suggest to her neighbors that despite all shortcomings, measures other than coup may not be a solution.
There is a need to call on the leadership of MALI, BURKINA FASO, GUINEA and others to realize support for one another as well as to devise means of solving the major issues of developing strategies against terrorism and western hegemony.
It will, therefore, be unfortunate to deploy force to NIGER.
Information suggests GHANA, TOGO, GAMBIA and LIBERIA have said they will not deploy troops to NIGER. More so, Mali, Burkina Faso, and Guinea, three West African nations, have backed the coup leaders in Niger, a move that poses a threat to regional stability. this is a trap for NIGERIA.
NIGERIA, for her own good, must not fall into this trap. It could be disastrous for, first, its status in the West African region and, indeed, the entire African continent; and, second, its existence as one enviably politically, diplomatically and economically powerful entity in global affairs.
The possible abstention of some of the West African nations from the impending war is not because ECOWAS does not have the capability to deploy a force to NIGER, but because other members will not commit as much resources as expected.
Moreover, ECOWAS will have to explain why it didn’t deploy similar forces to BURKINA FASO, MALI and GUINEA where their military also toppled democratic governments.
Generally, it will be a big strategic miscalculation for NIGERIA to commit to such externalities, with the several internal challenges facing the country.
A diplomatic solution to NIGER’s problem will be the best at this moment. NIGERIA has nothing to prove to the world except its proficiency in diplomatic relations and standing tall in might as a big brother. NIGERIA’s military diplomacy should play a key role in turning key issues.
NIGERIA faces devastating consequences should the war be carried out against NIGER.
Nigeria is strategically positioned into a geographical zone that it can never Win a War on the NIGER REPUBLIC even if the Military Junta is chased out of Niamey.
The following are definite to be the price of the aggression on the NIGER REPUBLIC by ECOWAS by the West African allied forces:
First: Losing President Bazoum. For sure, the first consequences of the War on NIGER is that NIGERIA will only have the corpse of MOHAMMED BAZOUM whom PRESIDENT TINUBU led ECOWAS is so anxious to reinstate immediately Niamey is captured.
Is Nigeria or any fighter for the restoration of democracy ready for that to happen?
Second: More enmity will emanate against Nigeria within the West African region. The country will have more regional enemies than friends because all the Countries bordering NIGER REPUBLIC will not condone the aggression even if they restrain from attacking Nigeria in defense of their ally in the protection of their sovereignty.
Third: Diplomatic relations among West African nations could worsen, leading to the possible collapse of ECOWAS. This situation would be catastrophic to the economy of the region as free movement of its citizens becomes a big regional threat. Already Niger Republic is hosting over 300,000 Nigerian Refugees in Diffa, Bosso and Tumour. These IDPs are already facing stigmatization and humiliation from their host and soon they may be asked to leave.
Four: There could be a proliferation of unprecedentedly frightening forms of terrorism as a result of the presence of huge amounts of Bõko Harām Insurgents across the borders of the two countries that stretched into Mali, Burkina Faso up to the Sene-Gambian Region. Fledgeling or the collapse of ECOWAS would facilitate the infiltration of terrorist groups into the countries much easier than what happened to ISIS’s cross border operations in Syria, Iraq, Turkey and parts of Egypt’s Sinai mountainous region.
In this scenario, more massive funding will be made towards sponsoring “Terrorists Groups”, thus creating more others by International Agencies who have been enemies to “Global Peace” to control sensitively viable areas of economic importance for eventually ceaseless attacks such as the ongoing “Armed Banditry and Kidnappings” that are rampant in the Region.
Five: Inflation and economic recession is definitely going to hit Nigeria immediately the war starts, causing millions of people across the region to lose their jobs, causing high cost of living for the ordinary citizens of both countries.
Six: Famine and rampant deaths would be inevitable as a result of the hampering of all agricultural activities, with the war intensifying where massive hectares of land shall remain without being harvested for more than 75 percent of the region in the same technical manner Bõko Harām disrupts farming for than a decade throughout most parts of the North-East.
Seven: Massive migration across West Africa, and, possibly, between West Africa and other contiguous regions of the African continent would take place as refugees from both sides keep flooding the Sub-saharan region.
With Nigeria presently finding it difficult to manage the growing humanitarian crisis with millions of its Internally Displaced Persons (IDPS) due to terrorism and banditry, another unsustainable chaotic conditions will be artificially created for it to handle.
For sure, when the drums of War are beaten and the planned aggression on the NIGER REPUBLIC commences, NORTHERN NIGERIA’s (Arēwa) Region, from Gamboru to Kamba, From ILLELA/JIBIYA/MAI-ADUWA/MAIGATARI to OTURKPO would be submerged in total full scale insecurity.
This could threaten the existence of NORTHERN NIGERIA. Once NORTHERN NIGERIA is gone, the official Federation of what is known as Nigeria would be “Badly Bargained”, forever.
Nigeria should look before it leaps.
To be forewarned is to be forearmed!
Zagazola is a Counter-Insurgency expert and security analyst in the Lake Chad region.
War Against Niger: Why Nigeria Should Look Before It Leaps
News
NUJ Makes case for a Media Enhancement Bill coupled with Health Insurance for Journalists

NUJ Makes case for a Media Enhancement Bill coupled with Health Insurance for Journalists
By: Bodunrin kayode
The Nigeria Union of Journalists (NUJ) has perfected plans for the passage of a “Media Enhancement Bill” aimed at improving welfare packages and working conditions for journalists across the country.
NUJ President, Comrade Alhassan Yahaya, stated this recently during a “veteran journalists interactive forum” in Kano, organised by the NUJ Kano State Council in collaboration with the State Ministry for Information and Internal Affairs.
Yahaya noted that the proposed bill, which is already attracting sponsorship from members of the House of Representatives, would address poor remuneration in the profession and provide a legal framework for better welfare.
“We blow other people’s trumpets but not ours. It is time we stood firm and work collectively to ensure the bill is passed.” Said the President.
He also called for the introduction of a practicable health insurance for journalists, revealing that less than one per cent currently have coverage in the country.
According to him, with an annual premium of N15,000 under the State health insurance scheme, journalists could access healthcare at all levels, reducing out-of-pocket expenses and promoting universal health coverage.
Kano State Commissioner for Information and Internal Affairs, Comrade Ibrahim Abdullahi-Waiya, pointed out that the state had implemented wide-ranging reforms to strengthen media capacity, enhance transparency, and improve communication between government and citizens.
He highlighted the revival of in-house publications, rehabilitation of the ministry’s library, and stronger relations with media executives, political commentators, and civil society groups.
Also speaking former NUJ National President, Malam Sani Zoro, cautioned against misinformation and misuse of artificial intelligence, urging the union to adopt global best practices and invest in professional training.
Stakeholders at the dialogue commended Kano State for being widely regarded as Nigeria’s most media-friendly state, citing significant investments in journalism infrastructure, human capital development, and the clearance of pension arrears for retired journalists.
They recommended quarterly dialogues, mentorship programmes by veteran journalists, and continuous capacity-building to boost professionalism.
The interactive session brought together veteran journalists, academics, and media practitioners to address ethical standards and strengthen public trust in the media.
NUJ Makes case for a Media Enhancement Bill coupled with Health Insurance for Journalists
News
Maiduguri Residents Panic as Transformer in the City’s Electricity Gas Plant explodes

Maiduguri Residents Panic as Transformer in the City’s Electricity Gas Plant explodes
By: Bodunrin Kayode
There was mild drama in the city of Maiduguri recently as residents expressed worries at a sudden build up of security around the bolori electricity gas plant on baga road.
The route in front of the plant which is usually motorable from the down side of Baga road to western was suddenly closed to commuters until the wee hours of tuesday night.
The entire traffic to the centre of the city was moved to the other lane which takes traffic from Western back to Baga road until the wee hours of the night.
While commuters moved around in hushed tones thinking there was Intel that the plant was under threat, others continued their normal lives as if nothing happened.
Very late in the night security sources hinted that it was not necessarily a major threat but a preventive move by the military to avert panic in the city when one of the transformers blew up towards the end of yesterday.
“There was a fire outbreak at one of the transformers in the gas plant. But the fire was doused around 1800hrs. The troops deployed at the plant maintained an active posture to deter anyone that might take advantage of the situation.”
However in spite of the temporary set back in one of the transformers, electricity supply into the city has been consistent throughout the week.
Maiduguri Residents Panic as Transformer in the City’s Electricity Gas Plant explodes
News
Why banditry may be returning to Kaduna exposes flaws in state government’s peace process

Why banditry may be returning to Kaduna exposes flaws in state government’s peace process
By: Zagazola Makama
The fragile peace in Kaduna State is once again under severe threat as banditry resurfaces along critical highways and rural communities, reviving old concerns over the sincerity and effectiveness of the state government’s amnesty programme.
The killing of Musa Kachallah, a repentant bandit leader who had renounced crime and embraced peace, has once again drawn attention to the uncertain security condition in Kaduna State.
Kachallah, once feared across parts of Chikun Local Government Area, had turned his back on violence, committing himself to community reconciliation. Respected by villagers in Tsohon Gaya for his peace efforts, he became a visible symbol of transformation. His assassination on Aug. 3, however, shattered that image and reignited fears that peace in Kaduna may only be skin-deep.
According to security and community sources, the killing was as calculated as it was cruel. At about 1023 hours on the fateful day, a group of bandits arrived at Kachallah’s residence disguised as friendly visitors. In keeping with local tradition, he welcomed them, offering food and pleasantries. But when night fell, their intentions became clear. At about 1145 hours, sporadic gunshots erupted, sending commotion across the settlement. By the time security personnel arrived, the assailants had disappeared into the surrounding bush.
Among those present during the attack was Shayibu Madugo, a known associate of another bandit figure, Gurgu. One of the assailants, identified as Mallau, was also injured and is reportedly receiving treatment at a secret medical location. Kachallah’s remains were laid to rest the following morning at 1005 hours on Aug. 4, in line with Islamic rites.
The killing goes beyond one man’s death. For months, Kachallah had worked to dissuade youths from taking up arms, urging them to abandon kidnapping and cattle rustling. Residents say he was genuine in his repentance, often standing as a mediator in local disputes.
Now, his silencing has not only discouraged others who might have considered laying down their weapons but also emboldened hardline factions opposed to peace.
It is believed that the killing has inspired retaliatory violence from bandit groups, especially those who perceive the state’s amnesty as insincere or biased. Already, since the killing, security reports indicated that bandits have intensified activities around Chikun, Kauru, Giwa, Makarfi on the Zaria–Kano highway, and Kajuru Local Government Areas and most recently the Abuja–Kaduna road, where a journalist was kidnapped on Friday. Already the authorities have stepped up daily patrol efforts at the Rigasa station line amid suspected security threats.
The resurgence of these pockets of attacks threatens the steady peace that was recorded within the past months in Kaduna, a once epicentre of kidnapping-for-ransom in Nigeria.
Despite these troubling developments, many security stakeholders and residents accuse the state government of complacency. Governor Uba Sani’s much-publicised “Kaduna Model” of disarmament, demobilisation and reintegration has been described as a charade, lacking structure, transparency, and credibility.
Unlike amnesty programmes in other volatile regions, Kaduna’s initiative has been criticised for its lack of coordination, strategic framework, absence of community participation, and failure to provide genuine rehabilitation for repentant fighters. While the governor publicly received “repentant bandits” earlier this year and promised international-standard reintegration, there is little on the ground to suggest any concrete plan.
Security sources note that there were no individual risk assessments to differentiate hardened commanders from coerced foot soldiers. No verifiable rehabilitation or livelihood programmes were implemented. No sustainable monitoring structure was set up to ensure compliance. Worst of it, no disarmament programmes was set up to receive arms from the bandits, in most cases, they come without their weapons and go back to their enclaves after every engagement. The programme appeared to have been driven by political optics rather than strategic intent. The killing of Kachallah has now exposed these gaps, with many bandits perceiving the process as betrayal rather than reconciliation.
On the ground, it is the Nigerian Army troops under 1 Division, NAF, the Police with critical support from the DSS that have held the line in places like Birnin Gwari and Chikun, and other part of the state, neutralizing armed groups and securing major corridors. But the military alone cannot guarantee lasting peace without political leadership and state-level initiatives.
Police formations, for instance, remain under-equipped, with most of their patrol vehicles grounded. Armoured Personnel Carriers (APCs) are unavailable, leaving major entry points into Kaduna unprotected. Despite persistent requests, the state government has not provided critical logistics to complement security operations.
Multiple sources allege that Governor Uba Sani rarely convenes security meetings or reads situation reports. Unlike his counterparts in North Western Niger, Katsina, Zamfara, Kebbi or Borno in the North East, who are known for prioritising security and directly engaging with security agencies, Sani is accused of disengagement and indifference.
According to the sources, the governor hardly picks calls, responds to urgent messages, or visits attack scenes or victims and their families. His most visible involvement in security matters has been receiving rescued victims handed over by the Office of the National Security Adviser, a role seen more as ceremonial than operational. Besides, Governor Uba Sani mostly operates his state from Abuja.
This disconnect has widened the gap between the state government and frontline security agencies. It has also eroded public trust, leaving rural communities to question whether the state truly has a strategy for peace.
Kaduna’s worsening security point to the collapse of the so-called amnesty programme and the absence of strong political leadership. The failure to build a credible framework for dialogue, reintegration, and rehabilitation has emboldened bandits who now see the state as weak and divided.
The bitter reality is that, while the military and other security agencies continues to make sacrifices to hold the line, the Kaduna State Government has failed to complement these efforts. Peace is fragile, and with bandits regaining confidence, the state risks sliding back into the dark years of mass abductions and rural terror.
The assassination has reopened old wounds. It has exposed once more that peace in the state rests not on a solid foundation, but on fragile promises and the overstretched efforts of security forces.
Unless the state government takes security issues beyond rhetoric by complementing security agencies to stamp out banditry, the region could again descend into unchecked violence.
The question is no longer whether the government’s amnesty will work, but whether Governor Uba Sani truly cares enough to take ownership of the security in his state.
Zagazola Makama is a Counter Insurgency Expert and Security Analyst in the Lake Chad Region
Why banditry may be returning to Kaduna exposes flaws in state government’s peace process
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