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War Against Niger: Why Nigeria Should Look Before It Leaps
War Against Niger: Why Nigeria Should Look Before It Leaps
By Zagazola Makama
Carefully observing the geopolitical map of AFRICA, WAGNER Operation and disassociation from WEST hegemony straddles a straight line from coasts of SENEGAL to SUDAN where a geo-strategic interest lies.
It appears the diversion is in AFRICA, which has become the proxy area for the UKRAINE – RUSSIA war.
In retrospect, the campaign against WESTERN hegemony, especially FRANCE, had eaten deep into AFRICA and has potentially no reverse, as calls rose for, first, AFRICAN leadership to own their countries’ wealth and, second, a united AFRICA.
Equally, WAGNER, an extension of RUSSIAN military diplomacy, spearheaded a Psychological Operations measure to divert attention of NATO and other WESTERN powers’ attention as EUROPE continues to become tense over the UKRAINE – RUSSIA conflict.
For now, WESTERN dominance is on the verge of pulling more resources to maintain relations with AFRICA.
Whatever the consequences, a RUSSIA-led support virus had already been inoculated into the streams of support by part of AFRICA to take sides.
This, therefore, forms the context in which the buildup of tension between the NIGERIA-led ECOWAS and NIGER REPUBLIC over the recent coup overthrowing the Mohammed Bazoum-led democratically elected government of the West African francophone nation should be viewed.
The Bola Ahmed Tinubu-led government of Nigeria seems hell-bent on leading the combined ECOWAS military to storm Niamey, root out the coupists, free Bazoum from their captivity and reinstate him president of NIGER.
There are numerous salient facts with regard to NIGERIA-NIGER Republic relations that deserve crucial consideration before the ECOWAS forces pounce on NIGER.
This consideration is imperative for NIGERIA to avoid being deceived into a proxy war that will, in the long run, cause its drastic and cataclysmic fall from the enviable heights of West African Giant and, possibly, African leadership.
The most-startling of these facts.
Seven states in NIGERIA, stretching from the North-West to the North-East geopolitical zones border NIGER. The peoples of these states savor centuries-old sociocultural affinity and amity with the peoples of the southern flank of NIGER, contributing substantially to the economies of the countries for ages.
These close ties are about to be crushed by the ECOWAS forces.
Intelligence suggests despite sanctions by ECOWAS, BENIN Republic has opened up borders to NIGER, implying its disagreement with the gang up measure against its neighbor. Suspicion places NIGERIA in tight corners as pro-WEST to act spontaneously against its neighbor.
This is possibly as part of WAGNER psychological Operation to seek further movement of the PMC personnel into NIAMEY in part and WEST AFRICA as a whole.
NIGERIA-NIGER relations have always been excellent up until now. For instance, NIGER is always actively in support of NIGERIA during Counter insurgency Operations of the Multinational Joint Task Force and provides ISR as well as Air Interdiction during most missions.
Military operations, economic transfer and numerous other friendly relations exist between both nations.
The coup may have changed the politics but has not disemboweled the close ties or similarities in cultural and social identity between NIGERIA and her neighbors.
It is assumed the target to frustrate NIGERIA’s key role economically, politically and militarily after solely containing more than a decade old insurgency is likely.
Hence, NIGERIA should continue a broader defense diplomacy with its neighbors to maintain a steady course in foreign policy.
The strong ties NIGERIA with its neighbors should be used to overcome plans to utilize AFRICA as grounds for proxy war between the WESTERN and EASTERN powers.
There is a need for NIGERIA to showcase the big-brother position in aligning with AFRICA’s unity and suggest to her neighbors that despite all shortcomings, measures other than coup may not be a solution.
There is a need to call on the leadership of MALI, BURKINA FASO, GUINEA and others to realize support for one another as well as to devise means of solving the major issues of developing strategies against terrorism and western hegemony.
It will, therefore, be unfortunate to deploy force to NIGER.
Information suggests GHANA, TOGO, GAMBIA and LIBERIA have said they will not deploy troops to NIGER. More so, Mali, Burkina Faso, and Guinea, three West African nations, have backed the coup leaders in Niger, a move that poses a threat to regional stability. this is a trap for NIGERIA.
NIGERIA, for her own good, must not fall into this trap. It could be disastrous for, first, its status in the West African region and, indeed, the entire African continent; and, second, its existence as one enviably politically, diplomatically and economically powerful entity in global affairs.
The possible abstention of some of the West African nations from the impending war is not because ECOWAS does not have the capability to deploy a force to NIGER, but because other members will not commit as much resources as expected.
Moreover, ECOWAS will have to explain why it didn’t deploy similar forces to BURKINA FASO, MALI and GUINEA where their military also toppled democratic governments.
Generally, it will be a big strategic miscalculation for NIGERIA to commit to such externalities, with the several internal challenges facing the country.
A diplomatic solution to NIGER’s problem will be the best at this moment. NIGERIA has nothing to prove to the world except its proficiency in diplomatic relations and standing tall in might as a big brother. NIGERIA’s military diplomacy should play a key role in turning key issues.
NIGERIA faces devastating consequences should the war be carried out against NIGER.
Nigeria is strategically positioned into a geographical zone that it can never Win a War on the NIGER REPUBLIC even if the Military Junta is chased out of Niamey.
The following are definite to be the price of the aggression on the NIGER REPUBLIC by ECOWAS by the West African allied forces:
First: Losing President Bazoum. For sure, the first consequences of the War on NIGER is that NIGERIA will only have the corpse of MOHAMMED BAZOUM whom PRESIDENT TINUBU led ECOWAS is so anxious to reinstate immediately Niamey is captured.
Is Nigeria or any fighter for the restoration of democracy ready for that to happen?
Second: More enmity will emanate against Nigeria within the West African region. The country will have more regional enemies than friends because all the Countries bordering NIGER REPUBLIC will not condone the aggression even if they restrain from attacking Nigeria in defense of their ally in the protection of their sovereignty.
Third: Diplomatic relations among West African nations could worsen, leading to the possible collapse of ECOWAS. This situation would be catastrophic to the economy of the region as free movement of its citizens becomes a big regional threat. Already Niger Republic is hosting over 300,000 Nigerian Refugees in Diffa, Bosso and Tumour. These IDPs are already facing stigmatization and humiliation from their host and soon they may be asked to leave.
Four: There could be a proliferation of unprecedentedly frightening forms of terrorism as a result of the presence of huge amounts of Bõko Harām Insurgents across the borders of the two countries that stretched into Mali, Burkina Faso up to the Sene-Gambian Region. Fledgeling or the collapse of ECOWAS would facilitate the infiltration of terrorist groups into the countries much easier than what happened to ISIS’s cross border operations in Syria, Iraq, Turkey and parts of Egypt’s Sinai mountainous region.
In this scenario, more massive funding will be made towards sponsoring “Terrorists Groups”, thus creating more others by International Agencies who have been enemies to “Global Peace” to control sensitively viable areas of economic importance for eventually ceaseless attacks such as the ongoing “Armed Banditry and Kidnappings” that are rampant in the Region.
Five: Inflation and economic recession is definitely going to hit Nigeria immediately the war starts, causing millions of people across the region to lose their jobs, causing high cost of living for the ordinary citizens of both countries.
Six: Famine and rampant deaths would be inevitable as a result of the hampering of all agricultural activities, with the war intensifying where massive hectares of land shall remain without being harvested for more than 75 percent of the region in the same technical manner Bõko Harām disrupts farming for than a decade throughout most parts of the North-East.
Seven: Massive migration across West Africa, and, possibly, between West Africa and other contiguous regions of the African continent would take place as refugees from both sides keep flooding the Sub-saharan region.
With Nigeria presently finding it difficult to manage the growing humanitarian crisis with millions of its Internally Displaced Persons (IDPS) due to terrorism and banditry, another unsustainable chaotic conditions will be artificially created for it to handle.
For sure, when the drums of War are beaten and the planned aggression on the NIGER REPUBLIC commences, NORTHERN NIGERIA’s (Arēwa) Region, from Gamboru to Kamba, From ILLELA/JIBIYA/MAI-ADUWA/MAIGATARI to OTURKPO would be submerged in total full scale insecurity.
This could threaten the existence of NORTHERN NIGERIA. Once NORTHERN NIGERIA is gone, the official Federation of what is known as Nigeria would be “Badly Bargained”, forever.
Nigeria should look before it leaps.
To be forewarned is to be forearmed!
Zagazola is a Counter-Insurgency expert and security analyst in the Lake Chad region.
War Against Niger: Why Nigeria Should Look Before It Leaps
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FG Moves to Stem Human Trafficking, Irregular Migration as Over 1,000 Nigerians Return from Crisis Routes
FG Moves to Stem Human Trafficking, Irregular Migration as Over 1,000 Nigerians Return from Crisis Routes
By: Michael Mike
The Federal Government on Tuesday unveiled a renewed strategy to curb irregular migration and dismantle human trafficking networks, warning that worsening economic hardship and the growing use of digital platforms by traffickers are exposing more Nigerians, particularly women and young people, to exploitation across Africa, the Middle East and Europe.
The renewed commitment came as the government and its international partners marked the fifth anniversary of the Comprehensive Protection, Reintegration and Assistance to Migrants and Communities (COMPASS) Programme, revealing that more than 1,000 stranded Nigerians have voluntarily returned from countries including Libya, Lebanon, Morocco, Mali, Egypt, India and the United Arab Emirates, while over 900 vulnerable returnees have received psychosocial care, healthcare and livelihood support to rebuild their lives.
Stakeholders warned that trafficking syndicates are becoming increasingly sophisticated, exploiting technology, poverty and unemployment to lure desperate Nigerians into dangerous migration routes where many end up trapped in forced labour, sexual exploitation and other forms of abuse.

Speaking at the anniversary event, the Chief of Mission of the International Organisation for Migration (IOM) in Nigeria, Sharon Dimanche, said migration itself was not the problem but the absence of safe and legal pathways.
She said: “Migration is not the problem. The challenge is ensuring that migration is safe, orderly and regular, while protecting the dignity of every migrant.”
Dimanche said the COMPASS Programme had significantly strengthened Nigeria’s migration governance architecture by improving policies and institutional coordination while placing the protection of migrants at the centre of migration management.
Highlighting the programme’s impact, she recounted the story of “Joy”, a Nigerian woman trafficked abroad and subjected to severe exploitation before returning home traumatised.
According to her, through IOM’s psychosocial support and reintegration programme, Joy rebuilt her life, established a fashion business and now employs several young women.
“Joy is no longer defined by what happened to her. She is defined by what she has become,” Dimanche said, describing the story as evidence that effective reintegration can transform survivors into productive members of society.
The Minister of Humanitarian Affairs and Poverty Reduction, Dr. Bernard Doro. reaffirmed the Federal Government’s commitment to protecting returning migrants, refugees, internally displaced persons and vulnerable communities.
He said the government’s “One Humanitarian, One Poverty Reduction” framework under President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s Renewed Hope Agenda was designed to integrate humanitarian assistance with long-term poverty reduction.
“Migration, when properly managed, presents opportunities for national development. We will continue to strengthen institutions, expand livelihood opportunities and ensure that returning migrants are empowered to rebuild their lives with dignity.”
The Minister of Women Affairs and Social Development, Imaan Sulaiman-Ibrahim, who was represented at the event, by the Director and Special Adviser Administration, Mrs. Erimfolami Ola, warned that women and children continue to bear the greatest burden of irregular migration and human trafficking.
According to her representative, the ministry has worked closely with partners under the COMPASS Programme to facilitate the voluntary return of over 1,000 stranded Nigerians while strengthening institutional responses to trafficking and forced displacement.
She stressed that interventions in Edo State had demonstrated that addressing poverty and unemployment significantly reduces the factors driving irregular migration.
Representing the Minister of Youth Development, Ayodele Olawande, represented by the the Head of Youth Migration and Climate Action Resilience, pecial Adviser (Administration), Adedoyin Oyekan, said creating sustainable opportunities for young Nigerians remains one of the most effective responses to irregular migration.
The ministry pledged to deepen collaboration with IOM and development partners in expanding entrepreneurship, skills acquisition, innovation and employment programmes aimed at discouraging dangerous migration.
Also speaking, the Ambassador of the Kingdom of the Netherlands to Nigeria, Bengt van Loosdrecht, announced plans for a football-based youth initiative that would equip young Nigerians with coaching and life skills while educating communities about the dangers of irregular migration.
He said the programme would empower participants to become community ambassadors for safe migration.
According to the ambassador, “Migration is fundamentally a human issue. Through COMPASS, we are investing not only in stronger institutions but also in protecting people, supporting survivors and preventing others from falling into the hands of traffickers.”
Van Loosdrecht explained that the Netherlands established the COMPASS Programme to consolidate migration support into a coordinated framework capable of providing survivor care, mental health services, institutional strengthening and protection for vulnerable migrants.
Also addressing the gathering, the Director-General of the National Agency for the Prohibition of Trafficking in Persons (NAPTIP), Binta Bello, described the COMPASS Programme as one of Nigeria’s most strategic partnerships in the fight against human trafficking.
She said the initiative had strengthened the agency’s capacity to investigate and prosecute trafficking cases through specialised training for investigators and prosecutors while improving support for victims.
Warning that trafficking networks continue to evolve, Bello said: “Traffickers are adapting to technology, exploiting economic hardship and taking advantage of the aspirations of vulnerable young Nigerians. We must therefore strengthen partnerships among government, international organisations, civil society and communities to stay ahead of these criminal networks.”
The renewed commitment comes amid persistent concerns over the thousands of Nigerians who, in recent years, have embarked on perilous journeys across the Sahara Desert and the Mediterranean Sea in search of better economic opportunities. Many have perished, while others have been rescued from detention camps, trafficking rings and exploitative labour conditions abroad.
Stakeholders at the event agreed that while stronger law enforcement remains essential, tackling poverty, unemployment and social vulnerability is critical to addressing the root causes of irregular migration and sustaining Nigeria’s fight against human trafficking.
FG Moves to Stem Human Trafficking, Irregular Migration as Over 1,000 Nigerians Return from Crisis Routes
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MSF Ends Kano Diphtheria Emergency Mission After Vaccinating 835,000 Children
MSF Ends Kano Diphtheria Emergency Mission After Vaccinating 835,000 Children
By: Michael Mike
The humanitarian medical organisation, Médecins Sans Frontières (MSF)/Doctors Without Borders, has concluded its three-year emergency response to the devastating diphtheria outbreak in Kano State after supporting the vaccination of more than 835,000 children, describing immunisation as the key factor behind the sharp decline in infections.
The organisation, however, warned that the disease remains a major threat to children unless health authorities sustain routine immunisation, disease surveillance and rapid access to treatment.
MSF announced the end of its emergency intervention following the completion of a two-phase mass vaccination campaign carried out in partnership with the Kano State Ministry of Health.
The intervention followed one of Nigeria’s worst recorded diphtheria outbreaks, which claimed over 1,260 lives in Kano alone, most of them children.
According to MSF, more than 14,707 children received treatment during the emergency through MSF-run and supported treatment centres, including both facility-based and home-based care programmes.
The organisation also strengthened referral systems, disease surveillance, data management and community mobilisation while supporting the state’s vaccination drive.

Across two vaccination rounds, 835,028 doses of diphtheria vaccines were administered to children. The second phase, conducted between June 20 and 24, 2026, reached 486,948 children across 20 wards after the first round vaccinated 348,080 children, which ended on April 27.
MSF Project Coordinator in Kano, Abdoul-Aziz Djibrilla, said the outbreak placed enormous pressure on families, healthcare workers and health facilities across the state.
“Kano experienced a critical diphtheria outbreak that placed enormous pressure on families, healthcare workers and health facilities,” Djibrilla said.
He noted that although infections had declined considerably in recent months, largely because of the vaccination campaigns, the disease had not been eliminated.

“Although the number of cases has declined in recent months, mainly due to mass vaccination campaigns, the disease remains a serious health threat to children in Kano, driven by low immunisation coverage, overcrowding, delayed care-seeking, and malnutrition,” he added.
Kano has remained the epicentre of Nigeria’s diphtheria outbreak. According to the Kano State Ministry of Health, the state recorded more than 31,900 suspected cases and over 1,260 deaths between March 2022 and March 22, 2026.
The figures account for a significant proportion of Nigeria’s 65,759 suspected cases and 2,229 deaths reported by the Nigeria Centre for Disease Control (NCDC) since the outbreak was officially declared in 2023.
At the height of the outbreak between late 2025 and early 2026, treatment centres were overwhelmed, with more than 100 children admitted daily across supported health facilities and home-based care programmes. Bed occupancy exceeded available capacity in several facilities as healthcare workers struggled to cope with the influx of patients requiring specialised treatment.
Diphtheria is a highly contagious but vaccine-preventable bacterial infection spread mainly through respiratory droplets or contact with infected wounds. The disease causes sore throat, fever, swollen lymph nodes and the formation of a thick grey membrane that can block the airway. In severe cases, toxins produced by the bacteria can damage the heart, kidneys and nervous system, while untreated infections can be fatal in about 30 per cent of cases, particularly among young children.
The outbreak has largely affected children aged between five and 14 years, many of whom had never been vaccinated or had received incomplete immunisation.
Despite the improvement recorded through the vaccination campaigns, MSF cautioned that immunity gaps persist, leaving thousands of children vulnerable to future outbreaks.
Djibrilla stressed that sustained government commitment would determine whether the gains recorded are maintained.
“Continued commitment from health authorities and partners to sustain high immunisation coverage, strengthen surveillance, and ensure timely access to quality treatment will be critical to preventing future outbreaks and protecting the lives of children in Kano,” he said.
MSF has operated continuously in Nigeria since 1996 and currently provides free medical care in 10 states, relying largely on private donations to maintain its humanitarian independence. The organisation said it would continue supporting healthcare interventions in Nigeria beyond the conclusion of the Kano diphtheria emergency response.MSF Ends endence. The organisation said it would continue supporting healthcare interventions in Nigeria beyond the conclusion of the Kano diphtheria emergency response.
MSF Ends Kano Diphtheria Emergency Mission After Vaccinating 835,000 Children
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Boko Haram: The Politics, A Call for Historical Accuracy, and Responsible Discourse
Boko Haram: The Politics, A Call for Historical Accuracy, and Responsible Discourse
By: Dr. James Bwala
The insurgency that has plagued northeastern Nigeria for over a decade, popularly known as Boko Haram, has caused immense suffering and destabilization in the region. Despite the profound implications of this crisis, much of the public discourse surrounding its origins is riddled with inaccuracies, oversimplifications, and politically motivated narratives. As a consequence, many Nigerians—including those on the streets of Maiduguri or other affected areas—hold incomplete or erroneous understandings of the group’s history. This lack of historical facts not only clouds efforts to address the root causes of the conflict but also fuels divisive rhetoric and politicization of the tragedy. Nigerians and those who continued to discuss the conflict and its history found a need to know and draw from facts to line up their narratives. Discoursants like lawyer Femi Falana and politicians like Naja’atu need facts to buttress their claims and should not rely on hearsay or half-truths, perhaps from where they heard their stories, because it is not adding up.
For us, who reported this crisis on the front line and studied the historical lines from direct elements and foot soldiers, we know that the widespread misconception is the tendency to attribute Boko Haram’s insurgency exclusively to the late Malam Mohammed Yusuf, the group’s most notorious leader, who emerged publicly in the early 2000s. While Yusuf did play a role in shaping the movement known as the “Yusufiya sect,” claiming he single-handedly started Boko Haram grossly simplifies the complex evolution of this militant group in Borno State or Northeast Nigeria. Such reductionism is evident in popular narratives frequently encountered among ordinary citizens, who often repeat what they have heard without contextual depth. An accurate historical account reveals that the conditions fostering Boko Haram’s emergence existed long before Yusuf’s ascendancy, involving multiple actors and events that laid the groundwork for radicalization and violence from the simply known Islamiyya sect in Kannamma to the Yusufiya sect and Boko Haram, the name given to them after the Bauchi Prison break at the beginning of the one-year conflict in 2010.
Like I did mention earlier, complicating the discourse around the history or founder are politicized allegations by prominent individuals that seek to assign blame to specific personalities without credible evidence. For instance, Hajiya Naja’atu has in recent times launched rhetoric directed at Vice President Kashim Shettima, linking her claims to the arrest of Kabiru Sokoto at the Borno liaison office in Abuja (which she said is Shettima’s house). Similarly, respected lawyer Femi Falana has publicly accused a former governor of Borno State of initiating the Boko Haram insurgency, associating the claims with political thuggery during the administration of Modu Sheriff. While such claims may have come within certain political constituencies, they dangerously oversimplify a multifaceted crisis and divert attention from deeper structural factors. Most importantly, these rhetorics are often founded on partial or misinterpreted information rather than comprehensive, verifiable research into the insurgency’s roots.
Testimonies and records of journalists and observers who were active in Maiduguri and the wider northeastern region since the early 1990s have captured far more interesting narratives. These professionals witnessed firsthand the unfolding developments culminating in the Boko Haram crisis. Their accounts reveal the existence of leadership predating Mohammed Yusuf, notably an individual named Mohammed Ali, who led an early Islamist sect prior to the “Yusufiya” movement. Ali was reportedly killed amid violence after escaping arrest in Kannamma, located in present-day Yobe State, long before Yusuf became publicly acknowledged as Boko Haram’s leader. The circumstances surrounding Mohammed Ali’s demise evidence internal fractures and state interventions that contributed to the radicalization pathway exploited by later insurgents.
Geographically, the significance of certain locations underscores the continuity in Boko Haram’s operational terrain. Mohammed Ali was ambushed and killed between Talala and Ajigil, areas within Damboa Local Government in Borno State. These locations remain critical hubs for Boko Haram activities today, illustrating how the movement’s influence expanded along established routes starting decades ago. Access between Buni Yadi and Damboa, through Foi village, forms a corridor still exploited for logistical and militant operations. Understanding these geographic linkages offers valuable insight into Boko Haram’s sustained presence and the entrenchment of its networks in northeastern Nigeria.
The persistence of incorrect narratives can be partly attributed to inadequate primary research and reliance on hearsay or politically motivated sources. This deficiency highlights an urgent need for esteemed public figures, journalists, analysts, and commentators to engage in meticulous and objective investigation when discussing Boko Haram’s origins. Reckless or uninformed rhetoric risks exacerbating communal tensions, misguiding policy responses, and undermining public trust. For example, assigning blame to isolated individuals without substantial proof politicizes the insurgency, detracting from broader considerations such as socioeconomic marginalization, governmental neglect, corruption, and ideological manipulation—all key contributors to the conflict.
Moreover, responsible storytelling about Boko Haram’s history requires acknowledging the complexity of insurgencies as social phenomena. These are rarely the product of singular agents but rather evolve from layered interactions between various factors, including local grievances, religious ideologies, political exclusions, and external influences. Therefore, simplistic attributions fail to capture the organic, evolving nature of such movements. A comprehensive approach that integrates oral histories, archival materials, community testimonies, and official documents can provide a more accurate chronicle and inform more effective counterinsurgency strategies.
The discourse on Boko Haram’s history demands a progressive shift toward historical accuracy and intellectual honesty. The prevailing narrative that attributes the insurgency solely to late Malam Mohammed Yusuf or assigns culpability to particular public figures without substantive evidence does a disservice to truth and justice. Recognizing the role of earlier leaders like Mohammed Ali and appreciating the broader socio-political context enables Nigerians and the international community to better comprehend the insurgency’s complexities. It is incumbent upon respected voices—whether in politics, law, or the media—to prioritize thorough research and measured discourse. Doing so not only honors the memory of victims and affected communities but also facilitates the formulation of genuine solutions anchored in reality, empathy, and inclusiveness. Only through such a principled approach can Nigeria hope to heal the wounds inflicted by Boko Haram and work toward lasting peace and stability in its northeastern regions.
- James Bwala, PhD, writes from Maiduguri.
- Boko Haram: The Politics, A Call for Historical Accuracy, and Responsible Discourse
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