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Tuareg Rebels and JNIM: A New Strategic Alliance in Mali?
Tuareg Rebels and JNIM: A New Strategic Alliance in Mali?
By: Zagazola Makama
Mali stands at a critical turning point as fresh negotiations between the Tuareg rebels of northern Mali and the al-Qaeda-affiliated Jama’at Nasr al-Islam wal Muslimin (JNIM) gain momentum. According to sources close to both groups, these talks represent a significant shift in strategy that could fundamentally reshape the security and political landscape of the Sahel.
For the Tuareg rebels, these negotiations are a response to Mali’s recent national consultations, which called for dialogue with jihadist groups but excluded northern armed factions from the process. Additionally, Tuareg leaders argue that grassroots communities who have been caught in the crossfire of the ongoing conflict are pushing for a settlement to avoid further bloodshed.
On the other hand, the rebels say they are keen to avoid the mistakes of 2012, when the Tuareg-led National Movement for the Liberation of Azawad (MNLA) initially seized control of northern Mali, only to be overpowered by jihadist forces, leading to a rapid escalation of violence and the subsequent 2013 French military intervention.
A Shift in JNIM’s Strategy
A key factor encouraging the Tuareg rebels to engage in talks is the shifting approach of JNIM itself. Over the years, the group has evolved in its tactics, messaging, and governance strategy. Unlike the extremist brutality displayed in 2012, JNIM has refined its policies, making it a more pragmatic and structured insurgency.
According to sources close to the Tuareg rebels, JNIM’s leadership began reassessing its position following the U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan. The Taliban’s ability to consolidate power while maintaining Afghanistan’s territorial integrity served as a model. Additionally, recent jihadist dynamics in Syria further influenced JNIM’s approach, leading to a reconsideration of its long-term objectives in Mali.
Statements from key JNIM figures, including Amadou Koufa, leader of Katiba Macina, and Jafar Dicko, head of JNIM operations in Burkina Faso, indicate a growing willingness to compromise. Their recent declarations have emphasized political and governance issues rather than outright military conquest.
Most notably, a recent JNIM communiqué framed the military juntas in the region as obstacles to regional stability. The statement called for international intervention against these governments, signaling that JNIM sees an opportunity to reposition itself as a legitimate actor rather than a purely insurgent force.
This convergence of interests between Tuareg rebels and JNIM has laid the groundwork for negotiations, with both sides willing to soften their positions for mutual benefit.
Key Points of Negotiation
JNIM sources have confirmed that discussions are ongoing, with a primary focus on governance and the role of Sharia law. Historically, one of the main points of contention between the two factions has been JNIM’s strict interpretation of Islamic law, which led to the breakdown of their alliance in 2012.
However, the current negotiations propose a new governance model in which Sharia law would be implemented at the local level, but administered by community-based religious authorities rather than JNIM operatives. This compromise, according to sources, has been accepted by JNIM’s leadership.
Another major shift is JNIM’s perspective on Mali’s territorial integrity. Rather than supporting the Tuareg rebels’ long-standing push for an independent Azawad, JNIM has reportedly argued that regional and international actors would be more likely to tolerate an Islamic governance structure within a unified Mali rather than outright secession.
JNIM’s ability to convince Tuareg leaders to focus on governing northern Mali rather than seeking full independence represents a major ideological shift. The jihadist group is prepared to support Tuareg fighters in taking control of key territories, but with the understanding that these areas would be governed under an Islamic framework rather than an independent Tuareg state.
A New Governance Model for Northern Mali?
Sources close to JNIM say that if the alliance moves forward, the group is ready to coordinate and administer territories alongside Tuareg rebels. However, lessons from the 2012 conflict have prompted a change in strategy.
Rather than raising the black flag of al-Qaeda over captured cities a move that led to international military intervention in the past—JNIM plans to allow Tuareg governance structures to manage administrative affairs. This means that while JNIM would retain influence, it would avoid direct control over urban areas, instead allowing local Tuareg leadership to take the forefront.
Such a strategy could serve multiple purposes: Reducing the risk of foreign military intervention by keeping governance in the hands of local Tuareg leaders, JNIM would present a less overt threat to international powers. Legitimizing its role in Mali’s political landscape rather than being seen purely as an extremist group, JNIM could position itself as a political and security partner in the region. Avoiding the mistakes of 2012 The rapid downfall of the Tuareg rebellion in 2012 was largely due to its inability to maintain control. By working together with the rebels rather than sidelining them, JNIM aims to ensure a more sustainable presence.
The Question of Al-Qaeda Affiliation
One of the most sensitive aspects of the negotiations revolves around JNIM’s relationship with al-Qaeda’s central command. According to sources, there is ongoing internal debate about whether the group should formally distance itself from al-Qaeda.
For JNIM leaders, the question is not just ideological but also strategic. Some within the group believe that dissociating from al-Qaeda could open doors to direct negotiations with Western governments. Others argue that such a move would require religious justification, possibly linked to a major political development such as the formal independence of Azawad or the collapse of the Malian government in Bamako.
Interestingly, sources indicate that JNIM is more willing to negotiate its future with Western powers directly rather than through Tuareg intermediaries. The concern within JNIM is that Tuareg leaders could use any potential al-Qaeda split as leverage in their own diplomatic engagements with France and other international actors.
Conclusion: A Game-Changer for Mali?
If these negotiations result in a formal agreement, the implications for Mali and the wider Sahel could be profound. A coordinated Tuareg-JNIM alliance would not only reshape local power dynamics but could also alter the trajectory of jihadist movements across West Africa.
The shift in JNIM’s strategy from ideological extremism to pragmatic governance signals a broader recalibration of jihadist operations in the region. Whether this shift leads to long-term stability or another round of conflict remains to be seen.
What is clear, however, is that Mali’s security landscape is on the brink of another transformation one that could redefine the balance of power in the Sahel for years to come.
Zagazola Makama is a Counter Insurgency Expert and Security Analyst in the Lake Chad Region
Tuareg Rebels and JNIM: A New Strategic Alliance in Mali?
RHI Presents Food Items to Vulnerable Groups in Yobe State
…Making it the 20th State to Benefit from the Support
By: Our Reporter
The Renewed Hope Initiative (RHI) Food Outreach Program, launched in Abuja in March 2024 to provide monthly support to vulnerable groups and persons with disabilities, has reached Yobe State—making it the 20th state to benefit from the initiative.
Since its inception, the program has covered Abia, Adamawa, Benue, Borno, Cross River, Delta, Edo, Ekiti, Enugu, Gombe, Kaduna, Kano, Kogi, Kwara, Lagos, Nasarawa, Oyo, Plateau, and Sokoto States before arriving in Yobe.
With generous support from the Abdul Samad Rabiu Africa Initiative (ASR Africa) and another industrialist who prefers to remain anonymous, assorted food items were delivered, bringing relief to many households, particularly those with disabilities.
The First Lady and Chairman of the Renewed Hope Initiative, Senator Oluremi Tinubu, noted that donors provide two truckloads of food items to each beneficiary state for onward distribution. Represented by the Wife of the Vice President, Hajiya Nana Shettima, she highlighted Yobe as a major beneficiary of RHI programs and interventions.
These include:
- The Tony Elumelu Foundation Women Economists Empowerment Program, which supported 500 women with ₦50,000 each.
- The RHI Women Agricultural Support Scheme, where 20 women received ₦500,000 each.
- A ₦68.9 million grant from the Federal Ministry of Agriculture to the Young Farmers Club.
- Annual financial support to senior citizens, with 100 beneficiaries receiving ₦100,000 each in 2023 and 250 beneficiaries receiving ₦200,000 each.
- A ₦50 million financial grant to 1,000 petty traders.
- The Women in ICT Program, aimed at empowering women in the digital economy.
According to Senator Tinubu, these interventions are designed to complement the Renewed Hope Agenda of President Bola Ahmed Tinubu.
Yobe State Governor, Mai Mala Buni represented by his Deputy Governor, Alhaji Idi Barde Gubana reaffirmed his government’s commitment to the initiative, noting that the state has aligned with RHI through various empowerment programs for women, children, and vulnerable groups. These include the distribution of household items, skill acquisition schemes, and post-insurgency recovery programs that have economically empowered many women.
The State Coordinator of RHI and Wife of the Yobe State Governor, Hajiya Hafsat Kollere Buni, expressed gratitude to the First Lady for extending such impactful support to Yobe State. She also looked forward to stronger collaborations to further project the ideals of RHI and improve the lives of the people.
Also present at the event was Dr. Ubong Udoh, Managing Director of the Abdul Samad Rabiu Africa Initiative, one of the key donors to the program.- RHI Presents Food Items to Vulnerable Groups in Yobe State
Monguno says lack of national cohesion fuels insurgency
By: Zagazola Makama
Former National Security Adviser, Maj.-Gen. Babagana Monguno (rtd.), has warned that Nigeria’s fight against insurgency will remain elusive without national cohesion and a united front across society.
Monguno stated this in Abuja on Thursday at the launch of Scars: Nigeria’s Journey and the Boko Haram Conundrum, a new book authored by former Chief of Defence Staff, Gen. Lucky Irabor (rtd.).
He said Boko Haram and other violent groups had thrived by exploiting Nigeria’s divisions, stressing that disunity among citizens, political actors, and institutions weakened the country’s capacity to defeat terrorism.
“Without national cohesion, insurgency will not end. Terrorists feed on our fault lines – ethnic, religious, political – and they weaponise them against us. If we remain divided, no amount of military might will deliver lasting peace,” Monguno said.
He urged Nigerians to rise above parochial sentiments and embrace a spirit of patriotism, solidarity, and common purpose. According to him, the fight against insurgency must go beyond the battlefield to include reconciliation, justice, and inclusive governance.
The retired General emphasised that the scars left by Boko Haram were not just physical but also psychological and social, making unity a vital condition for national healing.
“The book reminds us that security is not just the work of soldiers. It is the responsibility of leaders, institutions, and citizens. Unless we build cohesion, insurgency will continue to mutate in different forms,” he added.
Monguno commended Gen. Irabor for documenting his experience, describing the work as a guide that combines history, strategy, and national lessons for the future.
The event was attended by former Presidents Olusegun Obasanjo and Goodluck Jonathan, the Minister of Defence, service chiefs, traditional rulers, diplomats, and senior government officials.
Monguno says lack of national cohesion fuels insurgency
Kukah says military operations alone cannot end insurgency, stresses soft power approach
By: Zagazola Makama
The Catholic Bishop of Sokoto Diocese, Most Rev. Matthew Hassan Kukah, has said Nigeria cannot defeat insurgency through military operations alone, stressing the need to embrace soft power and address root causes of insecurity.
Kukah made this known in Abuja on Thursday while reviewing Scars: Nigeria’s Journey and the Boko Haram Conundrum, a new book authored by former Chief of Defence Staff, Gen. Lucky Irabor (rtd.).
He said the country’s reliance on military doctrines and repeated counter-insurgency operations had failed to produce lasting peace because Boko Haram represented an ideology, not just an armed threat.
“For years, we have had Operation Lafiya Dole, Operation Restore Order, Operation Hadin Kai, Operation Safe Haven, and many others. Yet, when one operation fails, another is launched. These operations have not ended the insurgency because you cannot fight an idea with weapons alone,” Kukah said.
The cleric argued that describing the insurgency only in military terms forecloses other sources of information and non-kinetic solutions that are critical to peacebuilding.
According to him, Boko Haram’s struggle is framed as a jihad, and many of its fighters see death as martyrdom, making them indifferent to conventional deterrence.
“The challenge before us is not merely about defeating insurgents on the battlefield, but about understanding the soft issues of life and death. Guns cannot build peace; soft power must complement military power,” he said.
Kukah pointed to chapters 11, 12 and 13 of Irabor’s book, which emphasise reconciliation, good governance, justice, and national healing as critical conditions for security.
He praised the author’s reflections for going beyond military strategy, describing them as “the writings of a priest” that call for dialogue, reforms and moral renewal.
The bishop added that Nigeria must prioritise structural reforms, political inclusion, patriotism, and judicial integrity to tackle grievances that feed extremism.
“The urgency now is to invest in soft power – in human development, reconciliation, and building trust in institutions. Military operations can only create space; it is ideas and justice that will sustain peace,” Kukah said.
The event attracted former Presidents Olusegun Obasanjo and Goodluck Jonathan, senior government officials, service chiefs, diplomats, and other dignitaries.
End
RHI Presents Food Items to Vulnerable Groups in Yobe State
Sultan of Sokoto calls for proper understanding of jihad, says Islam abhors extremism
Jonathan says Boko Haram insurgency too complex, calls for holistic solutions
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