2027: Atiku, Obi, and El-Rufai remain vulnerable to fragmentation akin to oil separating from water.

By: Dr. James Bwala

If it doesn’t function in SDP, how will it work in ADC? We were taught in basic school science that oil and water do not mix. If this metaphor is any indication, it describes the character and style of the trio who want President Bola Ahmed Tinubu and Vice President Kashim Shettima to leave the Aso Rock Villa by May 29, 2027.

The Nigerian political landscape ahead of the 2027 general elections is witnessing significant realignments, particularly with the emergence of a potential coalition involving Atiku Abubakar (PDP), Peter Obi (Labour Party), and Nasir El-Rufai (Social Democratic Party). This alliance aims to challenge the incumbent President Bola Tinubu and his running mate Shettima, signaling a strategic move to consolidate opposition forces against the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC). 

Despite these developments, reports suggest that Atiku, Obi, and El-Rufai are losing political ground due to internal fractures and challenges in harmonizing their distinct party platforms into a cohesive coalition. The APC remains cautious but confident, downplaying the threat posed by this opposition alliance while capitalizing on its incumbency advantages. Moreover, security concerns surrounding key opposition figures like El-rufai and Peter Obi highlight systemic issues that may undermine opposition unity and effectiveness.

While the planned coalition presents a formidable challenge to Tinubu’s administration, its success hinges on overcoming ideological differences and addressing vulnerabilities within opposition ranks. The low voter turnout in previous elections also casts uncertainty on whether such coalitions can mobilize sufficient grassroots support to unseat entrenched incumbents in Nigeria’s complex political environment. 

El-Rufai was allegedly said to have run to SDP in order to be a placeholder for Atiku. However, reports breaking suggested that former Vice President Atiku Abubakar, ex-Labour Party presidential candidate Peter Obi, and former Governor Nasir El-Rufai of Kaduna State have collectively adopted the African Democratic Congress (ADC) as the official platform for their opposition coalition ahead of the 2027 Nigerian general election. According to them, this strategic alliance marks a significant realignment in Nigeria’s political landscape. These prominent figures seek to challenge the incumbent President Bola Tinubu and his All Progressives Congress (APC) party. The coalition aims to consolidate opposition forces under a unified banner, thereby enhancing their electoral competitiveness.

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They thought they had found good ground in the SDP, setting their political balls rolling. But we learned of numerous problems and the infighting amongst them that informed new decisions, which they are claiming realignment. Adewole Adebayo, the 2023 presidential candidate for the Social Democratic Party (SDP), has unequivocally declared that he will not withdraw his candidacy in favor of former Vice President Atiku Abubakar in the forthcoming 2027 general elections. This statement marks a significant stance within Nigeria’s evolving political landscape, especially considering Atiku’s prominence as a leading figure in the People’s Democratic Party. Adebayo’s refusal to step down reflects his commitment to offering an alternative political vision through the SDP, highlighting the increasing fragmentation and diversification of political competition in Nigeria.

By maintaining his candidacy despite pressure to consolidate opposition forces behind Atiku Abubakar, Adebayo emphasizes the importance of ideological independence and electoral contestation. This dynamic also points to potential challenges within opposition politics, where coalition-building efforts may face resistance from emerging parties seeking distinct platforms. Consequently, Adebayo’s position could influence strategic alliances and voter alignments ahead of Nigeria’s critical 2027 elections. 

The ADC, established in 2005 and officially registered by Nigeria’s Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) in 2006, has gained renewed relevance through this high-profile adoption. Historically endorsed by influential leaders such as former President Olusegun Obasanjo in 2018, the ADC now serves as a viable platform for opposition collaboration. Reports indicate ongoing efforts to restructure and strengthen the party’s organizational framework to support this coalition effectively. This development underscores an effort to create a level playing field for all political actors irrespective of their origins within Nigeria’s multi-ethnic context.

While official public announcements remain forthcoming, insider sources confirm that this coalition reflects a shared commitment among Atiku Abubakar, Peter Obi, and Nasir El-Rufai to present a formidable alternative to APC dominance. However, the political dynamics involving Atiku Abubakar, Peter Obi, and Nasir El-Rufai exemplify the metaphor of oil and water—elements inherently incompatible and resistant to blending. Their divergent ideologies, regional interests, and leadership styles generate tension within any coalition they form, resulting in inherent cracks that undermine unity. This fragmentation fosters uncertainty among supporters and stakeholders, weakening the coalition’s overall cohesion and strategic direction. Such internal discord often manifests as conflicting policy priorities and public disagreements that erode trust both within the alliance and among the electorate.

I believe that the inability of these leaders to reconcile their differences jeopardizes their collective political objectives. The coalition’s instability not only diminishes its bargaining power but also opens avenues for opposition forces to exploit these divisions. Consequently, this loose ground hampers effective governance planning and implementation, reflecting broader challenges in Nigerian politics where heterogeneous interests struggle to find common ground. Therefore, without deliberate efforts towards genuine compromise and collaboration, coalitions involving Atiku, Obi, and El-Rufai remain vulnerable to fragmentation akin to oil separating from water.

* James Bwala, PhD, writes from Abuja.

2027: Atiku, Obi, and El-Rufai remain vulnerable to fragmentation akin to oil separating from water.

How Shettima’s foreign engagements position Nigeria among progressive nations.

By: Dr. James Bwala

Vice President Kashim Shettima’s international engagements have significantly elevated Nigeria’s profile among progressive nations. Through strategic diplomacy and active participation in global forums, Shettima has positioned Nigeria as a proactive contributor to international development and security initiatives. His efforts in fostering bilateral relations with key countries have enhanced economic cooperation, attracting foreign investment critical for Nigeria’s growth.

Shettima’s focus on addressing transnational challenges such as terrorism and climate change aligns Nigeria with global priorities, demonstrating the nation’s commitment to sustainable development. By advocating for collaborative solutions, he underscores Nigeria’s role as a responsible stakeholder in regional stability and environmental stewardship. These engagements not only boost Nigeria’s diplomatic leverage but also create avenues for technological exchange and capacity building.

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The VP’s diplomatic activities serve as a catalyst for Nigeria’s integration into the community of progressive nations. His leadership exemplifies how effective international engagement can translate into tangible socio-economic benefits at home while projecting a positive national image abroad. Between 2023 and 2025, Nigerian Vice President Kashim Shettima actively engaged in international collaborations aimed at fostering innovation and policy development within Africa. In 2023, Vice President Kashim Shettima played a significant role in advancing Nigeria’s international engagements, particularly through fostering collaborations between the Nigerian government and global academic institutions. A notable instance was his meeting with a delegation from the Firoz Lalji Institute for Africa and the London School of Economics’ Philanthropy and Global Engagement division held in Lagos and Abuja. This engagement centered on partnership opportunities with Nigeria’s newly launched Presidential Initiative for Innovation, Policy Evaluation, and Research (PIIPER), which aims to enhance policy development through rigorous research.

During this interaction, VP Shettima underscored the critical importance of bridging academia and government to address Africa’s political economy challenges effectively. His approach reflects a broader strategic vision to leverage international expertise in innovation and policy evaluation to promote sustainable development within Nigeria. By championing such collaborative frameworks, Shettima’s international engagements in 2023 contributed to positioning Nigeria as an active participant in global knowledge exchange networks essential for national growth.

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Notably, in 2024, Shettima played an instrumental role in facilitating dialogues between Nigerian policymakers and international financial institutions, aiming to secure funding and technical support for various developmental projects across the continent. These dialogues were crucial in aligning Nigeria’s fiscal strategies with international best practices, thereby enhancing the nation’s capacity to implement impactful economic reforms. These efforts not only facilitated knowledge exchange but also helped in establishing a framework for sustained economic growth and development across the region. Through these comprehensive international engagements, Shettima effectively positioned Nigeria to harness global insights and resources, fostering an environment conducive to transformative economic policy-making and regional leadership. 

The VP’s proactive engagement with international stakeholders has been pivotal in fostering bilateral agreements that prioritize technology transfer and capacity building, thereby enhancing Nigeria’s competitive edge in the global market. This strategic positioning also opened avenues for Nigeria to play a more active role in regional peacekeeping initiatives, leveraging international partnerships to enhance security and stability across West Africa. This multifaceted approach not only strengthened Nigeria’s diplomatic ties but also underscored Shettima’s commitment to leveraging international collaboration for domestic benefit.

In 2025, Vice President Kashim Shettima significantly enhanced Nigeria’s international profile through strategic engagements aimed at attracting investment and fostering development partnerships. At the World Economic Forum (WEF) in Davos, Shettima actively promoted Nigeria as a promising destination for investors by highlighting key infrastructure projects such as the coastal highway and West African gas pipeline, which exemplify President Tinubu’s modernization agenda. 

By countering prevailing negative perceptions about Nigeria and Africa, he sought to reposition the country within the global economic landscape. Furthermore, his participation in high-level discussions with African leaders like South African President Cyril Ramaphosa underscored a commitment to regional collaboration and leadership cohesion on international platforms. 

Shettima’s advocacy extended beyond economic diplomacy into human capital development during the 2025 World Bank/IMF Spring Meetings. 

He emphasized the importance of data-driven policies under Nigeria’s Human Capital Development 2.0 strategy, advocating for sustained political will and equitable investment in people rather than solely natural resources. His calls for enhanced international collaboration aimed at improving data collection mechanisms reflect a nuanced understanding of policy implementation challenges and highlight his focus on inclusive growth strategies. Collectively, these engagements demonstrate Shettima’s multifaceted approach to positioning Nigeria as both an investment hub and a nation committed to sustainable human development.

* * James Bwala, PhD, writes from Abuja. 

How Shettima’s foreign engagements position Nigeria among progressive nations.

When Shettima’s domestic initiatives test the consciousness of political leadership

By: Dr. James Bwala

Beyond the superficial rhetoric surrounding attendance at weddings and condolences, Shettima’s domestic engagements reveal a profound commitment to loyalty that transcends mere social obligation. In many political contexts, such public displays are often dismissed as symbolic gestures; however, Shettima’s consistent presence at such intimate events within his community underscores a deliberate strategy to nurture trust and solidarity among his constituents. This approach reflects an understanding of loyalty not just as political allegiance but as an embedded social contract reinforced through personal interactions.

Shettima’s attentiveness to family and community milestones functions as a tangible manifestation of reciprocal respect and support, which are critical in sustaining long-term alliances. Such engagements contribute significantly to consolidating political capital by fostering emotional bonds that formal political processes alone cannot achieve. Consequently, these actions speak volumes about his leadership style—one that privileges relational depth over performative politics.

In sum, analyzing Shettima’s attendance at weddings and condolence visits reveals how domestic engagements serve as vital arenas for demonstrating loyalty. By prioritizing these personal connections, Shettima solidifies a foundation of trust critical for effective leadership in complex socio-political landscapes. This dynamic illustrates the intricate interplay between private gestures and public loyalty within contemporary governance frameworks. By fostering these personal relationships, Shettima effectively bridges the gap between political expectations and genuine community engagement. 

Through these actions, Shettima not only reinforces his political standing but also cultivates a sense of communal belonging that resonates deeply with the cultural ethos of his community. Such commitment to personal engagements underscores a nuanced understanding of leadership that prioritizes genuine human connection over mere ceremonial presence. In doing so, he navigates the delicate balance between fulfilling public duties and nurturing private relationships, thereby crafting a leadership approach that is both holistic and deeply rooted in the cultural fabric of his society. 

This approach not only enhances his reputation as a leader who values interpersonal relationships but also aligns with the traditional expectations of leadership within his cultural milieu. Furthermore, by embedding himself in the social fabric through these engagements, Shettima exemplifies a leadership model that transcends conventional political paradigms. Moreover, Shettima’s consistent presence at both celebratory and somber occasions highlights his commitment to honoring the full spectrum of human experiences within the traditional African community. 

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By engaging consistently and meaningfully in these personal and community events, Shettima demonstrates a profound respect for the social customs that underpin his society’s values, thereby reinforcing a leadership style that is both empathetic and culturally resonant. This dedication to participating in life’s pivotal moments not only fortifies his bonds with constituents but also serves as a testament to the sincerity of his loyalty. Through this ongoing engagement, he not only strengthens his personal connections but also exemplifies a political ethos that prioritizes genuine human connection over mere rhetorical gestures. 

In attending weddings and offering condolences, Shettima demonstrates a profound understanding of the social fabric that binds the African community, transcending superficial political maneuvering to foster a legacy of trust and solidarity. His consistent presence at such personal events signals a deeper allegiance to the people he serves, reinforcing his role as not just a political figure but a committed member of the community. 

Through his unwavering presence at both joyous celebrations and somber gatherings, Shettima demonstrates a profound understanding of the cultural significance these events hold within the fabric of society. Shettima’s actions underscore a leadership philosophy that values authentic relationships, illustrating how personal involvement can transcend political rhetoric to create lasting community bonds. This approach to leadership—rooted in personal connection and cultural sensitivity—sends a powerful message about the true essence of loyalty, which is built on trust, respect, and genuine care for the well-being of others. 

The Vice President’s approach highlights the importance of being present in both triumph and tragedy, reinforcing a leadership style that is deeply intertwined with the communal experiences and emotions of his constituents. In a political landscape often dominated by spectacle and posturing, Shettima’s commitment to engaging with his community on such an intimate level speaks volumes about the authenticity of his leadership. In doing so, he not only honors the traditions and values of his community but also solidifies a foundation of mutual respect and unwavering support. 

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His consistent engagement in these personal milestones not only reinforces his dedication but also exemplifies a model of leadership that prioritizes human connection over political convenience. His dedication to fostering these genuine connections reveals an understanding that true leadership is not merely about public appearances but about cultivating a sense of belonging and shared purpose. By weaving his personal engagements into the broader narrative of political duty, Shettima exemplifies a leadership style that prioritizes empathy and shared humanity, setting a standard for others to follow. 

In recognizing the profound impact of these personal connections, Shettima not only strengthens his political alliances but also nurtures a community bonded by shared experiences and mutual understanding. Shettima’s domestic engagements serve as a testament to the power of loyalty and community cohesion in an era where such values are often overshadowed by political expediency. In an era where political figures often prioritize optics over substance, Shettima’s approach underscores a profound respect for the essential human connections that underpin effective governance.

* James Bwala, PhD, writes from Abuja. 

When Shettima’s domestic initiatives test the consciousness of political leadership