Athena Observatory Warns of Deepening Structural Risks in Nigeria’s Democracy

By: Michael Mike

A new policy report has raised fresh concerns about the stability of Nigeria’s democratic system, warning that growing political fragmentation and institutional strain could undermine the credibility of elections ahead of the 2027 general polls.

The report, released on Tuesday by the Athena Election Observatory (AEO), marks the debut of its Political Landscape Monitor—a policy series designed to track and analyse the country’s evolving electoral environment. Titled “Nigeria’s Democracy and the Imperative of Competitive Politics,” the inaugural note paints a sobering picture of a political system struggling to keep pace with its own internal dynamics.

According to the Observatory, a pattern is emerging across Nigeria’s major political parties in which leadership disputes, fragile alliances, and factional battles are becoming increasingly common. While these crises may appear isolated, the report argues they are symptoms of a deeper structural imbalance.

At the heart of the problem, it said, is a widening gap between political activity and institutional capacity. Political actors, driven by the urgency of coalition-building and power consolidation, are moving faster than the rules and structures meant to regulate them.

“This is not just about party disagreements,” the report noted. “It is about the weakening of the systems that are supposed to organise competition, manage conflict, and ultimately guarantee meaningful choice for voters.”

The analysis drew from recent developments within prominent parties such as the African Democratic Congress (ADC), the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), and the Labour Party, where internal tensions and contested leadership claims have repeatedly spilled into the public domain.

Observers say the trend reflects a broader shift in how political disputes are resolved in Nigeria. Rather than being settled through internal party mechanisms, disagreements are increasingly pushed toward external institutions—particularly the courts and electoral regulators.

The report highlighted the pivotal role of the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) in this process. Its decisions on which party factions to recognise can effectively determine leadership outcomes, making it a central actor in intra-party struggles.

While acknowledging INEC’s constitutional mandate, the Observatory cautioned that inconsistent or opaque decision-making could erode public confidence. It called for clearer procedures and stricter adherence to impartiality to prevent the Commission from being perceived as a political arbiter.

Equally significant is the growing reliance on the judiciary to settle political disputes. The report warned that while the courts remain essential for upholding the rule of law, their increasing involvement in intra-party conflicts risks displacing internal governance systems.

Legal interventions, it argued, should serve as a last resort—not a default mechanism.

“When courts become the primary arena for resolving political disagreements, parties gradually lose the capacity to govern themselves,” the report states. “Over time, this weakens the entire democratic ecosystem.”

Beyond institutional concerns, the Observatory drew attention to the implications for ordinary voters. A fragmented political landscape, it said, reduces the clarity and credibility of electoral choices, leaving citizens with options that may lack cohesion or long-term viability.

In such conditions, elections risk becoming procedural exercises rather than meaningful expressions of democratic will.

The report ultimately framed the issue as a national, rather than partisan, challenge. Strengthening the institutional foundations of political competition, it argued, is critical not only for credible elections but also for political stability and governance.

As Nigeria edges closer to another election cycle, the findings serve as a stark reminder that the health of a democracy depends not just on the conduct of elections, but on the strength of the systems that shape them long before ballots are cast.

The Athena Election Observatory said it will continue to publish periodic assessments under its Political Landscape Monitor, offering data-driven insights into the trends shaping Nigeria’s political future.

Athena Observatory Warns of Deepening Structural Risks in Nigeria’s Democracy