When APC’s incumbency appears secure ahead of 2027

By: Dr. James Bwala

The political landscape in Nigeria as it approaches the 2027 general elections presents a complex tableau marked by rivalry, fragmentation, and strategic posturing. In examining this scenario through the lens of Niccolò Machiavelli’s seminal work, The Prince, one finds striking parallels that elucidate the dynamics at play within Nigerian opposition politics. Machiavelli’s assertion that “it is safer to be feared than loved” and his advocacy for deception as a tool to maintain power offer a critical framework to understand why Nigeria’s opposition has struggled to effectively mount a united front against the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC), led by President Bola Ahmed Tinubu and Vice President Kashim Shettima.

Machiavelli’s political philosophy centers on the pragmatics of power—rulers must often engage in morally ambiguous acts, including fearmongering and calculated deceit, to establish and sustain authority. He stresses that a ruler who is loved but not feared is vulnerable; fear ensures obedience even when affection wanes. Applying this to Nigeria’s contemporary political environment reveals how the ruling party, through both strategic governance and symbolic displays of strength, has induced a palpable sense of fear among opposition ranks, thereby destabilizing their cohesion.

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This fear manifests not only as intimidation by the government’s enforcement mechanisms but also as an overarching anxiety about the futility of opposing a deeply entrenched power structure. This psychological environment has engendered confusion and disarray within opposition parties, hampering their ability to coalesce around a shared vision or unified strategy.

Central to the opposition’s predicament is its inability to transcend personal ambitions and forge a consolidated front. Machiavelli emphasizes the importance of strategic alliances and the consolidation of interests in the pursuit of sustained power. Yet in Nigeria, opposition parties such as the Social Democratic Party (SDP), African Democratic Congress (ADC), New Nigeria Peoples Party (NNPP), and the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) remain fragmented and beset by internal rivalries.

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Rather than focusing their energies on dismantling the hegemony of APC, these groups are embroiled in internecine conflicts, blame-shifting, and coalition wrangling. The PDP’s recent resort to spiritual intercession via a “seven-day prayer” highlights a sense of desperation and reliance on non-strategic measures over pragmatic political maneuvering. This lack of coordination and coherent messaging fuels public perception of disorganization, weakening their collective bargaining power.

The opposition’s fragmentation can be traced to a fundamental deficit in leadership characterized by selfish ambitions. Each faction prioritizes its immediate gains over a long-term vision, thereby undermining confidence among constituents and potential partners within the political arena. Without the “voice of unity,” opposition parties inadvertently strengthen the position of the ruling APC by squandering resources and opportunities to present a formidable challenge.

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Fear operates as a dual-edged sword in this context. The ruling APC harnesses it to consolidate support and suppress dissent, while opposition leaders themselves are hindered by their fear of losing influence, relevance, and political capital. Such fear leads to hesitation, mistrust, and ultimately paralysis. This atmosphere dissuades cooperative behavior among opposition factions, making coalition-building a herculean task.

The fear of persecution or political marginalization under an APC-dominated system disincentivizes boldness. Many opposition figures adopt defensive postures, reluctant to risk alienating their base or breaching fragile agreements. This dynamic creates a vicious cycle where fear undermines unity, disunity reinforces APC dominance, and dominance exacerbates fear.

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President Bola Ahmed Tinubu and Vice President Kashim Shettima have effectively capitalized on these fractures within the opposition. Their leadership within the APC represents a consolidation of power that Machiavelli would recognize as a well-executed maintenance of principality. The APC’s overwhelming political machinery, resource allocation, control over security apparatus, and effective grassroots mobilization have rendered opposition efforts less efficacious.

The symbolic victories—the faltering of SDP, the sinking of ADC, and the uncertain trajectory of the National Democratic Coalition (NDC)—are testimonies to APC’s strategic supremacy. The ruling party’s preemptive victories in goodwill and political influence signal that the 2027 elections may again be skewed in their favor. They have won not only battles on the ground but also psychological warfare by fostering a perception of inevitability regarding their continued rule.

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As Nigeria marches toward the 2027 general elections, the question remains: can the opposition overcome its internal divisions to challenge the APC effectively?

For a start, the opposition must heed Machiavelli’s advice on the necessity of unity and strategic subterfuge. Facing a dominant opponent requires flexibility, sacrifice of individual ambitions for collective goals, and a willingness to engage in political realism rather than idealistic posturing. This would mean forging genuine coalitions not merely for electoral convenience but with a clear, shared agenda to address Nigeria’s numerous governance challenges. 

Opposition leaders need to cultivate a new narrative that transcends blame games. Popular disenchantment with the APC should be transformed into a cohesive political force, capable of articulating viable alternatives. Building trust within and across parties, managing ideological differences pragmatically, and presenting credible candidates could galvanize voter enthusiasm and disrupt APC’s dominance.

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However, the prospect of such transformation remains uncertain. Entrenched interests, historical grievances, and the lure of power complicate unified action. Without a decisive initiative toward reconciliation and strategic planning, the opposition risks repeating past failures, remaining divided and ineffective.

Indeed, the Nigerian political landscape ahead of the 2027 general elections vividly illustrates the enduring relevance of Machiavellian political thought. The ruling APC’s use of fear and strategic depth has created a daunting environment for opposition parties, which remain mired in fragmentation and self-interest. Until the opposition can muster the discipline and unity required to challenge the established order, APC’s incumbency appears secure.

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The lessons from Machiavelli urge political actors in Nigeria to embrace realism, where fear and deception are tools wielded prudently to maintain or contest power. Whether Nigeria’s opposition will rise above its divisions and contest the election “in one piece” or continue to falter remains to be seen. What is indisputable, however, is that the political game in Nigeria is as much about psychological mastery and strategic alliances as it is about ideology or policy—a truth that Machiavelli first unveiled centuries ago yet remains profoundly applicable today.

* James Bwala, PhD, is a political analyst and wrote from Abuja. 

When APC’s incumbency appears secure ahead of 2027

2027: Day Borno Welcomes Engr. Mustapha Gubio

By: Hon. Yusuf Adamu

Borno State has always been marked by fervent enthusiasm and a deep-seated commitment to progress. On the historic day when Engr. Mustapha Gubio emerged from the aircraft at Borno’s airport, greeted by an overwhelming sea of supporters, it became evident that a new era was dawning—one that promises unity, development, and sustainable governance. The moment when His Excellency, Professor Babagana Umara Zulum, lifted Gubio’s hand high in the air symbolized more than just a gesture. It was a powerful declaration to the people of Borno and beyond that Engr. Mustapha Gubio is the indisputable consensus candidate for the All Progressives Congress (APC) governorship ticket in 2027. 

The remarkably large turnout at the airport upon Engr. Mustapha Gubio’s homecoming underscores a unified political front within the APC and the trust bestowed upon him by Borno’s citizens. The crowd was not merely a gathering; it was a vivid demonstration that the 2027 elections are effectively sealed in favor of the APC. This overwhelming support is a testament to the collective belief that Gubio embodies the qualities necessary to lead Borno towards sustained growth and prosperity. In a region often challenged by security concerns and developmental hurdles, such unity is critical. It signals to all stakeholders that the people of Borno are rallying behind a leader whose vision aligns with their aspirations for peace, stability, and economic advancement.

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Also, the presence of influential political figures at the event solidifies the legitimacy and strength of Engr. Mustapha Gubio’s candidacy. Distinguished personalities such as the Minister of Agriculture, Senator Abubakar Kyari, whose influence transcends local boundaries, were visibly present and supportive. Alongside him were other key elected representatives, including Senator Kaka Shehu Lawan and members of the House of Representatives, all signaling unwavering allegiance to the APC’s chosen candidate. Their participation does not only lend political weight to Gubio’s campaign but also projects a message of solidarity and collaboration across different tiers of government. Such cohesion is essential for crafting and implementing policies that can address the multifaceted challenges facing Borno.

The demographic diversity of the crowd—youths, women, senior citizens, and children, who greeted his arrival—reflects an inclusive political movement that transcends age, gender, and social strata. This inclusivity is fundamental in fostering a sense of belonging and collective responsibility among citizens. The youths’ enthusiastic participation is especially significant; as the backbone of tomorrow’s workforce and leadership, their endorsement signals hope for innovative approaches and energizing youth-led initiatives in governance. Women, who often bear the brunt of economic and social hardships, demonstrated their support as well, hinting at a future administration that will be sensitive to gender-specific issues and committed to empowering women economically and socially. Senior citizens, carrying the wisdom of experience, also stood in solidarity, showing that Gubio’s leadership enjoys broad generational support—a crucial factor for sustainable peace and continuity.

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Beyond the optics of political alliances and public enthusiasm, the event epitomizes Borno’s resilience and rising spirit after years of adversity. Historically, Borno has confronted significant security threats and humanitarian challenges that have tested its very fabric. The unity displayed at the airport sends a clear signal that the people of Borno have risen above divisive sentiments and are eager to embrace a future characterized by cooperation and constructive engagement. It is a clarion call that the time for fragmentation has passed and that collaborative governance is the pathway forward. Engr. Mustapha Gubio’s candidacy, therefore, is not merely a political milestone; it symbolizes a beacon of hope and a catalyst for transforming Borno into a model state of progress and peace.

Critically, the choice of Engr. Mustapha Gubio aligns perfectly with the needs of Borno at this crucial juncture. With his engineering background and experience in public service, Gubio brings a pragmatic, solution-oriented mindset to governance. The complexities of rebuilding infrastructure, enhancing security, and promoting economic diversification demand technical expertise coupled with visionary leadership. Gubio’s track record indicates that he possesses these attributes, making him uniquely qualified to spearhead initiatives that would stimulate growth, improve living standards, and foster social cohesion. His leadership promises to harness innovation and strategic planning to address longstanding issues, from rebuilding communities ravaged by conflict to improving essential services such as health, education, and transportation.

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The endorsement by Governor Babagana Umara Zulum reinforces the message that continuity in leadership, paired with fresh and capable hands, is vital for Borno’s ongoing recovery and development. Governor Zulum’s administration has been widely recognized for its commitment to transparency, infrastructural development, and human capital investment. By publicly lifting Gubio’s hand, Zulum has not only conferred legitimacy but also assured the continuity of these developmental agendas, ensuring that the progress achieved so far will not be reversed but rather accelerated under Gubio’s stewardship. This seamless transition within the APC framework enhances political stability, which investors and development partners closely monitor as a prerequisite for engagement.

Another persuasive element stems from the APC’s portrayal as “one family,” a phrase poignantly echoed during the reception. Political fragmentation has often undermined development efforts in Nigerian states, including Borno. However, the APC’s unity demonstrates a matured political culture that prioritizes collective good over individual ambitions or factional rivalries. This unity translates directly into stable governance, efficient policy implementation, and a reduction in electoral violence—issues that have historically hampered progress in the region. For the citizenry, the image of a united APC means less political uncertainty and more focus on tangible outcomes such as job creation, improved healthcare, and educational advancement.

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Looking forward, the implications of this consensus extend beyond the immediate political cycle. It paves the way for a governance model grounded in inclusivity, competence, and shared vision. Stakeholders—from traditional leaders to civil society groups—can rally behind a single candidate whose mandate is broadly accepted, reducing the risk of post-election disputes and fostering an environment ripe for engagement and partnership. This foundation is indispensable for Borno’s transformation, enabling policies that attract investments, encourage entrepreneurship, and invigorate social programs tailored to the unique needs of its diverse population.

The day Borno welcomed Engr. Mustapha Gubio was more than a political event—it was an affirmation of unity, hope, and determination. The overwhelming crowd, the presence of distinguished political leaders, and the symbolic hand-raising by Governor Babagana Umara Zulum collectively sent an unmistakable message: Borno State is entering a phase of consolidated strength and visionary leadership under the APC banner. Engr. Mustapha Gubio’s emergence as the consensus candidate encapsulates the aspirations of a resilient people ready to transcend past challenges and embrace a prosperous future. As we approach the 2027 elections, it is clear that Borno stands united, steadfast, and prepared for the promising journey ahead under the guiding hand of Engr. Mustapha Gubio. The time for progress has arrived, and Borno’s destiny lies in the fulfillment of this shared dream.

* Hon. Yusuf Adamu writes from Maiduguri.

2027: Day Borno Welcomes Engr. Mustapha Gubio

Adamawa North Senatorial seat: Gov. Fintiri pledges good representation

Governor Ahmadu Fintiri of Adamawa has formally accepted to contest the senatorial seat to represent Adamawa North under the platform of All Progressives Congress APC following clarion calls by stakeholders from the zone.

Fintiri formally accepted the call in Mubi Local Government Area of Adamawa State after serving two terms in office as the governor of the state.

“I accept the call in the name of Allah and since I didn’t fail you as the governor, I promised you that I will not fail you in the Senate”, Fintiri said.

He promised good representation at the senate and to attract people-oriented projects for the development of the zone.

Fintiri called on aspirants to understand that at the end of the primaries only one aspirant would emerge as candidate in various positions.

He called on them to accept the outcome of the primaries and to remain united for the victory of the party, other candidates and President Bola Tinubu.

Fintiri thanked and appreciated the support given to him and called on the youth not to allow themselves to be used by some politicians to destroy their future.

He also drummed support for President Tinubu and all candidates under the platform of APC for more dividends of democracy.
He pledged to canvas for votes to President Bola Tinubu to ensure his re-election in 2027 election.

According to him, it is now time for Nigerians to reap the benefit of the policies and programmes initiated by the Tinubu administration.

He added that the hardship faced by some people would soon be history as the gains of Tinubu’s reforms would secure better dividends of democracy for Nigerians.

In his remarks, Sen. Amos Yohana, who is currently on the seat expressed readiness to support Gov. Fintiri because of the calls by the stakeholders for Fintiri to replace him.

He also contributed the sum of N20 million for the purchase of the aspiration form for Fintiri.

Earlier in his address, Mr Sale Kingiri, one of the stakeholders disclosed that no fewer than 10, 000 people in the zone made a clarion call for Fintiri to contest for senate in view of his capacity.

He said having Fintiri in the Senate was a pride not only for the zone but the nation due to his sterling performance as the governor.

Gov. Fintiri also paid homage to the emir of Mubi, Alhaji Abubakar Ahmadu.

Adamawa North Senatorial seat: Gov. Fintiri pledges good representation