Politics
El-Rufai: A calculated yet potentially ineffectual strategy to challenge Tinubu and Shettima’s re-election bid in 2027.
El-Rufai: A calculated yet potentially ineffectual strategy to challenge Tinubu and Shettima’s re-election bid in 2027.
By: Dr. James Bwala
The recent political maneuver by former governor of Kaduna State, Malam Nasir El-Rufai, left many political observers laughing. El-Rufai remains a new clown in the political arena since his rejection as a minister from Kaduna State under the Tinubu administration. El-Rufai’s defection to the Social Democratic Party (SDP) represents a calculated yet potentially ineffectual strategy to challenge President Bola Tinubu and Vice President Kashim Shettima’s 2027 reelection bid. El-Rufai’s move, characterized by claims of ideological divergence from the APC, appears more rooted in personal political ambitions than substantive systemic transformation, which he continually hopes Nigerians believe.
Critical analysis suggests that El-Rufai’s defection is symptomatic of intra-elite power reconfiguration rather than a genuine oppositional movement. The strategic repositioning reflects deeper fractures within Nigeria’s political landscape, where elite negotiations supersede meaningful democratic representation. While El-Rufai attempts to mobilize opposition figures like Peter Obi and Atiku Abubakar, the fundamental power structures remain remarkably unchanged.
Ultimately, the proposed alliance faces significant challenges. The fragmentation of opposition forces, combined with the APC’s entrenched political machinery, renders El-Rufai’s efforts potentially futile. His defection might be interpreted as a symbolic gesture rather than a substantive challenge to the incumbent administration, highlighting the persistent limitations of Nigeria’s contemporary political dynamics. He has been seen moving from one big political figure to another, including going to the home of the former president in an attempt to give credence to his moves, yet he could not clean up the traces of his aging and diminishing relevance in the circle of politics. Despite El-Rufai’s efforts, the entrenched political dynamics and the lack of a cohesive ideological framework within the opposition diminish the likelihood of any substantial electoral upset in 2027.
The lack of a unified vision and coherent policy proposals among these opposition figures only exacerbates their inability to present a credible alternative to the electorate. Given the historical context of electoral politics in Nigeria, the absence of a cohesive opposition strategy further compounds the challenge of altering the status quo, rendering El-Rufai’s defection more an act of political theater than a catalyst for genuine change. Moreover, the entrenched interests and loyalties within the APC continue to present formidable barriers to any meaningful opposition realignment.
The political landscape appears to be more about individual ambitions and less about a unified front capable of mounting a serious challenge to the incumbent powers. This scenario underscores the cyclical nature of political realignments in Nigeria, where shifts often reflect personal ambitions rather than a genuine ideological departure from established norms. While El-Rufai’s attempts to forge alliances with other opposition figures such as Peter Obi, Atiku Abubakar, and Rabiu Kwankwaso signal a desire to create a formidable coalition, the reality remains that such alliances often crumble under the weight of competing interests and personal ambitions, leaving the electorate disillusioned with yet another cycle of political theatrics. Moreover, the historical pattern of political defections in Nigeria suggests that such moves are often perceived as mere strategic repositioning rather than genuine ideological shifts.
Despite the theatrical nature of these political maneuvers, the entrenched power dynamics and loyalty networks within Nigeria’s political landscape make it exceedingly difficult for any new coalition, no matter how strategically crafted, to truly upend the status quo. While El-Rufai’s intentions may appear bold, they are unlikely to disrupt the deeply entrenched political machinery that has long favored incumbents like Tinubu and Shettima.
Despite these efforts, the pervasive influence of existing political structures suggests that any such coalition is more likely to fracture under pressure rather than mount a successful challenge. Given the entrenched interests and historical voting patterns, it appears unlikely that such a coalition could effectively disrupt the established political dominance of Tinubu and Shettima in the upcoming election. This skepticism is further compounded by the perception that El-Rufai’s defection and subsequent coalition-building efforts are more about personal political survival than a genuine commitment to transformative change. Despite the apparent allure of a united front, the reality remains that these alliances often falter under the weight of conflicting agendas and entrenched political loyalties. Moreover, the historical precedent of political realignments in Nigeria often results in temporary alliances that lack the cohesion necessary to present a formidable challenge to established power structures.
READ ALSO: https://newsng.ng/tinubushettima-the-epidemic-of-economic-insecurity-in-nigeria/
The skepticism surrounding El-Rufai’s defection is echoed by the Nigerian Presidency and APC, who dismiss his move as a futile endeavor motivated by personal ambition rather than a genuine ideological shift. Indeed, El-Rufai’s maneuver is less about ideological realignment and more a reconfiguration of elite power dynamics within the ruling class. As observed by many political analysts, the political landscape remains largely unchanged, with the same elite power dynamics at play, suggesting that any perceived threat from El-Rufai’s move is unlikely to materialize into a significant challenge.
This skepticism is further reinforced by the broader historical context of Nigerian politics, where similar attempts to consolidate opposition forces have often unraveled due to internal dissent and the prioritization of individual ambitions over collective goals. Additionally, the inherent volatility of such coalitions, often marred by a lack of unified vision and the dominance of competing interests, further diminishes their potential to unseat entrenched incumbents. Historical patterns also suggest that such coalitions often struggle to sustain momentum and coherence, especially when faced with the entrenched influence of incumbents like Tinubu and Vice President Kashim Shettima.
Given this context, El-Rufai’s efforts to rally opposition figures like Peter Obi and others around the SDP banner might appear ambitious, but without a cohesive strategy or compelling ideological narrative, such alliances are prone to fragmentation and ultimately ineffectual in altering the prevailing status quo.
The entrenched political machinery supporting President Tinubu and Vice President Kashim Shettima possesses significant resources and influence, making it a formidable barrier for any nascent coalition lacking internal solidarity and a resonant national platform. Despite these strategic maneuvers, the historical precedent and current political landscape suggest that El-Rufai’s efforts may ultimately falter against the deeply entrenched systems supporting Tinubu and Shettima.
The historical resilience of incumbent structures in Nigerian politics, characterized by their adept patronage networks and control over vital state apparatuses, presents another significant challenge for any opposition coalition seeking to disrupt the status quo. Without a clear ideological foundation and a unified agenda that resonates with the broader electorate, such attempts are often perceived as mere political repositioning rather than genuine efforts to instigate meaningful change. In 2027, President Tinubu and Vice President Kashim Shettima will take the oath again for the second time, and El-Rufai will still have no political credibility to make a difference in Nigeria’s political circle.
* James Bwala, PhD, writes from Abuja.
El-Rufai: A calculated yet potentially ineffectual strategy to challenge Tinubu and Shettima’s re-election bid in 2027.
Buni wins the Yobe East senatorial seat
By: Yahaya Wakili
The executive governor of Yobe state, Hon. Mai Mala Buni CON, COMN, has won the Yobe East senatorial district primary election.
And Senator Ibrahim Mohammed Bomai has won the Yobe South Senatorial seat. While Senator Ahmad Ibrahim Lawan GCON, the longest-serving senator, has won the Yobe North Senatorial seat, respectively.
Senator Musa Mustapha moved a motion for endorsement of His Excellency Governor Mai Mala Buni CON as the sole APC senatorial candidate for the Yobe East Senatorial District.
The motion was seconded by Hon. Lawan Shettima Ali in line with the provisions of our laws.
“I am truly grateful to our political leaders and constituents for the opportunity given to me to serve in the Nigerian Senate,” Senator Mustapha said.
He maintained that Governor Mai Mala Buni and I have always agreed on everything that we have to do to make our state better, and he is the one that will take over from me.
“With his track record of performance, the Yobe East senatorial election has already been won by Governor Buni, inshallah, and I don’t think there is anybody today with the political capacity to even come near him in the upcoming elections.
Buni wins the Yobe East senatorial seat
2027: Fintiri wins APC’s senatorial ticket for Adamawa North
Gov. Ahmadu Fintiri of Adamawa has won the All Progressives Congress (APC) Senatorial ticket in the forthcoming 2027 general elections for Adamawa North Senatorial District.
Mr Wilfred William, the returning officer of the APC primary election for Adamawa North senatorial district declared Fintiri the winner and returned him as APC’s candidate at the collation centre in Mubi-North Local Government Area of Adamawa.
He said that the election was conducted across the five LGAs in the zone; Madagali, Maiha, Michika, Mubi-North and Mubi-South.
“The total number of votes for the five LGAs is 292,070, accredited votes 174,514, votes cast 174,514.
“The following are the number of votes scored by each aspirant; Abdulrahaman Kwacham 6,958 votes; Ahmadu Fintiri 160,579 votes and Hamisu Medugu 6,977.
“Having satisfied the requirements, Fintiri scored the highest votes and was hereby declared the winner and returned elected for the Adamawa North Senatorial District,” he said.
2027: Fintiri wins APC’s senatorial ticket for Adamawa North
2027: “VP Shettima is the soul of the Tinubu ticket.”
By: Dr. James Bwala
In the complex and often unpredictable landscape of Nigerian politics, few figures command the nuanced respect and unyielding support that Vice President Kashim Shettima does within the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) and beyond. As Nigeria approaches the pivotal 2027 elections, political discourse has increasingly focused on the symbiotic relationship between President Bola Ahmed Tinubu and his vice president, Shettima—an alliance many analysts and insiders argue forms an inseparable whole. Among those who have championed this narrative for over a decade, I have steadfastly promoted and defended Shettima’s candidacy and political persona in the media, convinced that he is not only indispensable to Tinubu’s ticket but indeed its very soul.
Shettima’s political journey is marked by resilience, versatility, and a deep commitment to Nigeria’s democratic evolution. From his early days as governor of Borno State—where he confronted extremist insurgencies with a combination of diplomacy and firmness—to his current role as vice president, Shettima has consistently demonstrated qualities essential to governance: courage, strategic thinking, and an unshakeable connection to the grassroots. These attributes have earned him a rare kind of political capital, transcending regional and ethnic divides that often constrain Nigerian politicians.
READ ALSO: https://newsng.ng/2027-between-president-tinubu-and-vice-president-kashim-shettima/
The past few years have seen me articulate these points repeatedly, emphasizing Shettima’s unique ability to balance the interests of northern Nigeria while aligning with Tinubu’s southwestern base. This duality is critical in a country where political equations are fundamentally intertwined with geography and identity. Shettima’s presence on the ticket effectively broadens the coalition, ensuring that the APC maintains electoral competitiveness across key demographics. His role is not merely symbolic or ceremonial; it is a strategic masterstroke aimed at reflecting the diversity and unity Nigeria aspires to embody.
Yet, despite these clear advantages, skepticism about Shettima’s political heft persists among certain commentators and factions. Some critics assert that he lacks the “political weight” to govern effectively at the national level or that his influence is confined to limited spheres. These critiques often hinge on isolated events or a narrow interpretation of political dynamics. However, such views overlook the broader, more intricate realities of Nigerian politics, where soft power, coalition-building, and consensus-making are just as vital as raw electoral numbers or populist appeal.
READ ALSO: https://newsng.ng/2027-between-president-tinubu-and-vice-president-kashim-shettima/
A compelling rejoinder to these doubts was recently offered by my respected colleague, Mr. Abdul Rafiu Lawal, former correspondent for TELL Magazine, whose insights carry considerable weight owing to his extensive experience and analytical rigor. Lawal described Vice President Shettima as the “soul of the Tinubu ticket,” a phrase that encapsulates the essence of Shettima’s indispensability to the ruling coalition. He went further to caution that if President Tinubu were to disregard or sever this alliance, he would be committing a grave political error—a move that would jeopardize the ticket’s viability and electoral success.
Lawal’s commentary crystallizes the argument that Shettima is far more than a mere running mate; he is the linchpin of their collective political destiny. His presence on the ticket provides coherence to the APC’s narrative of inclusiveness and stability amid an often fragmented political landscape. Indeed, Shettima’s extensive networks, especially in the crucial Northern geopolitical region, afford the administration a strategic edge in mobilizing voters and consolidating support in areas that might otherwise remain skeptical of the Tinubu-led platform.
READ ALSO: https://newsng.ng/2027-between-president-tinubu-and-vice-president-kashim-shettima/
Beyond electoral calculations, Shettima’s role as the vice president projects a message of reconciliation and forward-looking governance. Nigeria’s history is punctuated by periods of sectional tension and mistrust among its diverse ethnic groups. Having a northeasterner of Shettima’s stature occupying this high office signals a commitment to embracing all corners of the nation, fostering unity and shared purpose. This symbolism resonates with millions who seek assurance that their voices and concerns matter in the corridors of power.
VP Shettima embodies a blend of youthful dynamism and seasoned political acumen that complements Tinubu’s leadership style. Together, they project an image of a government both rooted in experience and responsive to contemporary challenges. This synergy is critical as Nigeria confronts pressing issues—from economic diversification and security threats to social cohesion and infrastructural development.
READ ALSO: https://newsng.ng/2027-between-president-tinubu-and-vice-president-kashim-shettima/
Detractors might argue that political alliances in Nigeria are ephemeral, driven by expediency rather than enduring conviction. While this skepticism is not unfounded historically, the Tinubu-Shettima partnership demonstrates notable durability and shared vision. It is a relationship forged not solely on political convenience but also on mutual respect and a convergent understanding of Nigeria’s needs at this juncture. The consistency of Shettima’s public service record, alongside Tinubu’s leadership trajectory, attests to a partnership built on genuine collaboration.
In light of these considerations, the discourse surrounding the “Shettima issue” must be reframed. Rather than questioning his legitimacy or capacity, stakeholders ought to recognize that the vice president’s role transcends individual ambition. He is a critical agent for national consolidation, whose contributions underpin the larger framework of political stability and growth.
READ ALSO: https://newsng.ng/2027-between-president-tinubu-and-vice-president-kashim-shettima/
As the nation moves closer to the 2027 elections, the importance of coherent, inclusive leadership cannot be overstated. The stakes are high, and the electorate is discerning. Political actors who understand and embrace the composite nature of Nigeria’s polity will be better positioned to deliver lasting progress. Herein lies the significance of Vice President Kashim Shettima’s place on the Tinubu ticket—it is the embodiment of unity in diversity, a strategic nod to Nigeria’s pluralistic fabric, and a testament to the power of principled partnership.
The vice president is undeniably the soul of the Tinubu ticket. His political gravitas, regional representation, and commitment to national development enrich the ticket’s appeal and functionality. To undermine or dismiss his role is to risk destabilizing an alliance that offers Nigeria a credible path towards cohesion and prosperity. As articulated by Abdul Rafiu Lawal and evidenced by decades of Shettima’s public engagement, the vice presidency is not a peripheral appointment but a central pillar in the architecture of Nigeria’s evolving democracy. For those invested in the country’s future, embracing Shettima’s indispensability is not just a political calculation—it is a patriotic imperative.
* James Bwala, PhD, writes from Abuja.
2027: “VP Shettima is the soul of the Tinubu ticket.”
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