Politics
El-Rufai: A calculated yet potentially ineffectual strategy to challenge Tinubu and Shettima’s re-election bid in 2027.
El-Rufai: A calculated yet potentially ineffectual strategy to challenge Tinubu and Shettima’s re-election bid in 2027.
By: Dr. James Bwala
The recent political maneuver by former governor of Kaduna State, Malam Nasir El-Rufai, left many political observers laughing. El-Rufai remains a new clown in the political arena since his rejection as a minister from Kaduna State under the Tinubu administration. El-Rufai’s defection to the Social Democratic Party (SDP) represents a calculated yet potentially ineffectual strategy to challenge President Bola Tinubu and Vice President Kashim Shettima’s 2027 reelection bid. El-Rufai’s move, characterized by claims of ideological divergence from the APC, appears more rooted in personal political ambitions than substantive systemic transformation, which he continually hopes Nigerians believe.
Critical analysis suggests that El-Rufai’s defection is symptomatic of intra-elite power reconfiguration rather than a genuine oppositional movement. The strategic repositioning reflects deeper fractures within Nigeria’s political landscape, where elite negotiations supersede meaningful democratic representation. While El-Rufai attempts to mobilize opposition figures like Peter Obi and Atiku Abubakar, the fundamental power structures remain remarkably unchanged.
Ultimately, the proposed alliance faces significant challenges. The fragmentation of opposition forces, combined with the APC’s entrenched political machinery, renders El-Rufai’s efforts potentially futile. His defection might be interpreted as a symbolic gesture rather than a substantive challenge to the incumbent administration, highlighting the persistent limitations of Nigeria’s contemporary political dynamics. He has been seen moving from one big political figure to another, including going to the home of the former president in an attempt to give credence to his moves, yet he could not clean up the traces of his aging and diminishing relevance in the circle of politics. Despite El-Rufai’s efforts, the entrenched political dynamics and the lack of a cohesive ideological framework within the opposition diminish the likelihood of any substantial electoral upset in 2027.
The lack of a unified vision and coherent policy proposals among these opposition figures only exacerbates their inability to present a credible alternative to the electorate. Given the historical context of electoral politics in Nigeria, the absence of a cohesive opposition strategy further compounds the challenge of altering the status quo, rendering El-Rufai’s defection more an act of political theater than a catalyst for genuine change. Moreover, the entrenched interests and loyalties within the APC continue to present formidable barriers to any meaningful opposition realignment.
The political landscape appears to be more about individual ambitions and less about a unified front capable of mounting a serious challenge to the incumbent powers. This scenario underscores the cyclical nature of political realignments in Nigeria, where shifts often reflect personal ambitions rather than a genuine ideological departure from established norms. While El-Rufai’s attempts to forge alliances with other opposition figures such as Peter Obi, Atiku Abubakar, and Rabiu Kwankwaso signal a desire to create a formidable coalition, the reality remains that such alliances often crumble under the weight of competing interests and personal ambitions, leaving the electorate disillusioned with yet another cycle of political theatrics. Moreover, the historical pattern of political defections in Nigeria suggests that such moves are often perceived as mere strategic repositioning rather than genuine ideological shifts.
Despite the theatrical nature of these political maneuvers, the entrenched power dynamics and loyalty networks within Nigeria’s political landscape make it exceedingly difficult for any new coalition, no matter how strategically crafted, to truly upend the status quo. While El-Rufai’s intentions may appear bold, they are unlikely to disrupt the deeply entrenched political machinery that has long favored incumbents like Tinubu and Shettima.
Despite these efforts, the pervasive influence of existing political structures suggests that any such coalition is more likely to fracture under pressure rather than mount a successful challenge. Given the entrenched interests and historical voting patterns, it appears unlikely that such a coalition could effectively disrupt the established political dominance of Tinubu and Shettima in the upcoming election. This skepticism is further compounded by the perception that El-Rufai’s defection and subsequent coalition-building efforts are more about personal political survival than a genuine commitment to transformative change. Despite the apparent allure of a united front, the reality remains that these alliances often falter under the weight of conflicting agendas and entrenched political loyalties. Moreover, the historical precedent of political realignments in Nigeria often results in temporary alliances that lack the cohesion necessary to present a formidable challenge to established power structures.
READ ALSO: https://newsng.ng/tinubushettima-the-epidemic-of-economic-insecurity-in-nigeria/
The skepticism surrounding El-Rufai’s defection is echoed by the Nigerian Presidency and APC, who dismiss his move as a futile endeavor motivated by personal ambition rather than a genuine ideological shift. Indeed, El-Rufai’s maneuver is less about ideological realignment and more a reconfiguration of elite power dynamics within the ruling class. As observed by many political analysts, the political landscape remains largely unchanged, with the same elite power dynamics at play, suggesting that any perceived threat from El-Rufai’s move is unlikely to materialize into a significant challenge.
This skepticism is further reinforced by the broader historical context of Nigerian politics, where similar attempts to consolidate opposition forces have often unraveled due to internal dissent and the prioritization of individual ambitions over collective goals. Additionally, the inherent volatility of such coalitions, often marred by a lack of unified vision and the dominance of competing interests, further diminishes their potential to unseat entrenched incumbents. Historical patterns also suggest that such coalitions often struggle to sustain momentum and coherence, especially when faced with the entrenched influence of incumbents like Tinubu and Vice President Kashim Shettima.
Given this context, El-Rufai’s efforts to rally opposition figures like Peter Obi and others around the SDP banner might appear ambitious, but without a cohesive strategy or compelling ideological narrative, such alliances are prone to fragmentation and ultimately ineffectual in altering the prevailing status quo.
The entrenched political machinery supporting President Tinubu and Vice President Kashim Shettima possesses significant resources and influence, making it a formidable barrier for any nascent coalition lacking internal solidarity and a resonant national platform. Despite these strategic maneuvers, the historical precedent and current political landscape suggest that El-Rufai’s efforts may ultimately falter against the deeply entrenched systems supporting Tinubu and Shettima.
The historical resilience of incumbent structures in Nigerian politics, characterized by their adept patronage networks and control over vital state apparatuses, presents another significant challenge for any opposition coalition seeking to disrupt the status quo. Without a clear ideological foundation and a unified agenda that resonates with the broader electorate, such attempts are often perceived as mere political repositioning rather than genuine efforts to instigate meaningful change. In 2027, President Tinubu and Vice President Kashim Shettima will take the oath again for the second time, and El-Rufai will still have no political credibility to make a difference in Nigeria’s political circle.
* James Bwala, PhD, writes from Abuja.
El-Rufai: A calculated yet potentially ineffectual strategy to challenge Tinubu and Shettima’s re-election bid in 2027.
Fubara Declares Support for Tinubu, Chinda, Says Rivers Political War Is Over
By: Michael Mike
Rivers State Governor, Sir Siminalayi Fubara, has announced his support for President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s second-term ambition and the governorship aspiration of Hon. Kingsley Ogundu Chinda, saying political differences in the state have been resolved and that the time for confrontation is over.
Fubara made the declaration on Wednesday during the groundbreaking ceremony of the Riven Medical Industries Project in Port Harcourt, where he said previously opposing political camps in Rivers had reached an understanding to work together for peace and development.
The governor said he had aligned with the “Rainbow Coalition,” a political movement associated with former Rivers State Governor and Minister of the Federal Capital Territory, Nyesom Wike, and urged his supporters across the state to support candidates under the platform ahead of the 2027 general elections.
“We have made peace in the state and I am supporting our Rainbow Coalition. President Bola Ahmed Tinubu is our president, and is the one we are supporting. OK Chinda is the governorship candidate that I am supporting and anybody who believes in me will support him and every other candidate that is under the Rainbow Coalition,” Fubara said.
He added that he had returned to the political family, insisting that Rivers State must move beyond past disagreements.
“I’ve gone back to our family. So, please, whoever you are, give your total support to the Rainbow Coalition. We need to move forward. The time of war is over. It is time for peace and this peace is taking us to another level,” he said.
Fubara urged his supporters not to claim allegiance to him alone but to support the broader political arrangement, stressing that he was committed to unity and stability in the state.
“I’m not party to anything that will bring any form of disunity in this state. I’ve done what I need to do and we are moving forward,” he stated.
The governor also used the occasion to highlight the significance of the Riven Medical Industries Project, describing it as a major step towards industrialisation, healthcare development, and economic expansion in Rivers State.
However, he warned investors against abandoning commitments after receiving government support, recalling past experiences where agreements with investors resulted in disputes and legal battles.
According to him, the state government approved the project because of confidence in the investors’ ability to revive the facility, create employment opportunities, and contribute to economic growth.
He tasked the investors to adhere strictly to project timelines, particularly ensuring the completion of the first phase within three months, while appealing to host communities and the Obio/Akpor Local Government Area leadership to provide an enabling environment for the project.
The Riven Medical Industries Project is a Public-Private Partnership between the Rivers State Government and Enbay Pharmaceutical Industries Limited, aimed at transforming the former Integrated Medical Industries (IMI) into a pharmaceutical manufacturing hub.
When completed, the facility is expected to produce pharmaceutical formulations, gelatine capsules, intravenous infusions, and Active Pharmaceutical Ingredients (API), boosting local drug production capacity and reducing Nigeria’s reliance on imported medicines.
The project is also projected to create thousands of direct and indirect jobs, promote technology transfer, attract investment, and strengthen Nigeria’s healthcare supply chain.
The development comes as political activities intensify ahead of the 2027 general elections, with alliances and realignments expected to shape contests across states.
Fubara Declares Support for Tinubu, Chinda, Says Rivers Political War Is Over
Remain neutral during elections, Senate aspirant Bembella urges Nasarawa North elders
By: Bodunrin Kayode
The People’s Democratic Party PDP candidate for the Nasarawa North Senatorial zone, Madaki Bembella has appealed to the consciences of the elders in the zone to be neutral towards the up coming general election in the country.
Bembella, who is also the Waziri of Mada kingdom said it was in the interest of known elders to speak the truth at all times and maintaining their dignity when it comes to Mada kingdom and beyond adding that it is only then that the elders can easily be imitated by the younger ones.
The Mada chieftain in an exclusive interview with this reporter recently called on the elders to always speak in one voice regretting that there are some elders who should be sitting on their respected seats in line with their traditions with neutrality to guide the younger generation but sadly are still fixated at contesting for partisan politics.
“In my opinion, they should not be involved in politics again. They should rather sit down and direct the younger ones but the same people have relegated that position living a big gap sometimes with no one credible enough to fill.
“To my surprise also, elders are still participating in politics while some are still taking sides on sensitive issues where they are supposed to be neutral.” Said Bembella.
Bembella who is a household name in the Mada kingdom of Akwanga said that both the elders and younger generation should trust him in the elections because he has been tested in his service to humanity and has a shiny pedigree to show for it.
Why residents should trust him as their their next senator
On why residents of the zone should trust him with the office, he went on: “they should trust me by reason of my pedigree and also my track record as I contribute to humanity.
“We have good testimony of what we have been able to do both here in the headquarters of the zone and around the other areas.
” I have lived with people around here for the past 30 years and have not been found wanting. I have been tested to serve where I retired and gave a good account of myself.
“I have always had interests in politics especially the PDP since 1999. But I have used it to support politicians and party activities, it started around 2013 till date.
“That was when we started supporting individuals who have stakes in elections. But for full participation, I would say that started in 2024.and it will continue by God’s grace till I get to the Senate.”
As a traditional chieftain, he is also the Waziri of the Mada kingdom which is an influential position to hold in any kingdom and he actually plans to utilize his influence in the kingdom to account regularly on his achievements which he feels will bring the constituency up to speed with his actions.
On his message to the 35 electoral wards in the zone, he noted that he will work towards creating an assembly of the people in the three council areas of Wamba, Akwanga and Nasarawa Eggon so that the quality of representation will increase.
Akwanga he noted was supposed to have about 14 electoral wards but it has been brought down to eleven which the contestants have to contend with.
To the young people of the zone, Bembella advised them not to mortgage their future for pittance that desperate politicians share on elections day.
He urged them to avoid vote buying and progress beyond the anti partisan politicians who come with such freebies to compromise their lives and the entire electoral system.
Bembella is a fellow of the Association of National Accountants of Nigeria who has paid his dues in his service to humanity.
Remain neutral during elections, Senate aspirant Bembella urges Nasarawa North elders
2027 VP Certificate of Return: The Triumphant Shettima
By: Dr James Bwala
The formal presentation of the All Progressives Congress (APC) vice-presidential nomination certificate to Vice President Kashim Shettima by President Bola Tinubu at the State House in Abuja marks a historic moment in Nigeria’s political landscape. This event is not merely ceremonial; it signifies the consolidation of a strategic political partnership and underscores the indispensable role of the vice presidency in national governance and electoral calculations. The critics who have underestimated the political significance of the vice-presidential office, relegating it to a position of symbolic presence confined to social functions, must now reconsider their stance. Vice President Kashim Shettima emerges not only as a formidable political figure but also as a master in governance, diplomacy, and relationship building, making him the ideal running mate for the 2027 presidential election.
The fallacy that Shettima serves only as a figurehead or mere attendee at weddings and funerals fails to appreciate the sophisticated political dynamics underlying such social engagements. In the complex web of Nigerian politics, public appearances at community events are far from trivial. They represent critical opportunities for leaders like Shettima to forge bonds, nurture trust, and demonstrate empathy with various constituencies. This aspect of grassroots engagement is very important for political sustainability and electoral success, especially in a nation as ethnically and regionally diverse as Nigeria.
READ ALSO: https://newsng.ng/kashim-shettima-the-imperative-of-agricultural-revitalization-and-the-case-for-the-niger-deltas-agrarian-future/
Vice President Shettima’s approach over the past three years under President Tinubu’s administration exemplifies a transformative model of vice-presidential leadership. Unlike his predecessors, who often remained distant or disengaged from the public beyond official duties, Shettima has established himself as the most sociable and accessible vice president in Nigeria’s recent history. His consistent presence across the six geopolitical zones—attending significant social, religious, and cultural events—reflects a profound understanding of Nigeria’s sociopolitical fabric. This strategy has enabled him to cultivate a broad base of support that transcends ethnic and regional divides, an asset invaluable to any national campaign.
The ability to emotionally connect with people through shared experiences at weddings, funerals, and other communal gatherings creates a lasting impact that goes beyond superficial visibility. It stirs a deeper level of connection, fostering loyalty and goodwill towards the leadership. Shettima’s sensitivity to these moments has rendered him not just a political figurehead but a trusted representative of the people, fulfilling the crucial role of bridging government and citizenry. Such engagement is fundamental to democratic governance and a testament to his political acumen.
READ ALSO: https://newsng.ng/kashim-shettima-the-imperative-of-agricultural-revitalization-and-the-case-for-the-niger-deltas-agrarian-future/
The lessons gleaned from Shettima’s network-building efforts reveal a nuanced grasp of power and influence unique for effective leadership. Politics, especially in a federal system like Nigeria’s, requires more than policy expertise; it demands strategic alliances and interpersonal relationships. Shettima’s success in cultivating friendships and collaborations among diverse political actors has strengthened both his profile and the APC’s reach. This extensive networking capacity reinforces his suitability as a vice-presidential candidate who can unite various factions and present a cohesive front in the 2027 elections.
The significance of Shettima’s receipt of the certificate of return extends beyond personal triumph; it symbolises the resilience of democratic processes within the APC and the broader Nigerian polity. Despite detractors and so-called “wishy-washers” who sought to undermine his candidature, the vice president’s nomination confirms the party’s confidence in his leadership qualities and electoral appeal. It sends a clear message that the vice-presidency is a vital component of executive power and electoral strategy—a partnership essential for steering Nigeria towards stability and progress.
READ ALSO: https://newsng.ng/kashim-shettima-the-imperative-of-agricultural-revitalization-and-the-case-for-the-niger-deltas-agrarian-future/
In addition, Shettima’s persona as the “people’s vice president” and “Jagoran Arewa” (Leader of the North) impact deeply with the northern electorate and beyond. His background and proven track record furnish him with the legitimacy and moral authority to address regional concerns while maintaining national unity. This dual appeal is critical in a country where ethnic and regional identities profoundly shape political allegiances. His ability to balance these identities within the framework of national integration positions him as a unifying figure capable of advancing inclusive governance.
Critics who diminish the vice-presidential role overlook the institutional and constitutional responsibilities that the office entails. The vice president is not merely a standby official but an active participant in policymaking, governance, and representation. Shettima’s tenure has demonstrated commitment to these responsibilities, often spearheading initiatives and representing the presidency on critical domestic and international platforms. This proactive stance challenges outdated perceptions and elevates the office’s relevance in contemporary Nigerian politics.
READ ALSO: https://newsng.ng/kashim-shettima-the-imperative-of-agricultural-revitalization-and-the-case-for-the-niger-deltas-agrarian-future/
Vice President Kashim Shettima’s presentation of the APC vice-presidential nomination certificate is a landmark achievement that validates his political stature and strategic importance. His journey from perceived marginalisation to political prominence showcases the power of relationship-building, empathy, and visionary leadership.
As Nigeria approaches the 2027 presidential elections, Shettima stands as a testament to the evolving nature of the vice presidency—one characterised by active governance, broad-based support, and commitment to the nation’s unity and progress. The triumph of Shettima is not just a personal victory; it is a collective affirmation that strong, socially engaged leadership at all levels of government is indispensable for Nigeria’s democratic future. Congratulations to the people’s vice president and Jagoran Arewa on this well-deserved milestone.
*James Bwala, PhD, writes from Abuja.
2027 VP Certificate of Return: The Triumphant Shettima
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