Politics
El-Rufai: A calculated yet potentially ineffectual strategy to challenge Tinubu and Shettima’s re-election bid in 2027.
El-Rufai: A calculated yet potentially ineffectual strategy to challenge Tinubu and Shettima’s re-election bid in 2027.
By: Dr. James Bwala
The recent political maneuver by former governor of Kaduna State, Malam Nasir El-Rufai, left many political observers laughing. El-Rufai remains a new clown in the political arena since his rejection as a minister from Kaduna State under the Tinubu administration. El-Rufai’s defection to the Social Democratic Party (SDP) represents a calculated yet potentially ineffectual strategy to challenge President Bola Tinubu and Vice President Kashim Shettima’s 2027 reelection bid. El-Rufai’s move, characterized by claims of ideological divergence from the APC, appears more rooted in personal political ambitions than substantive systemic transformation, which he continually hopes Nigerians believe.
Critical analysis suggests that El-Rufai’s defection is symptomatic of intra-elite power reconfiguration rather than a genuine oppositional movement. The strategic repositioning reflects deeper fractures within Nigeria’s political landscape, where elite negotiations supersede meaningful democratic representation. While El-Rufai attempts to mobilize opposition figures like Peter Obi and Atiku Abubakar, the fundamental power structures remain remarkably unchanged.
Ultimately, the proposed alliance faces significant challenges. The fragmentation of opposition forces, combined with the APC’s entrenched political machinery, renders El-Rufai’s efforts potentially futile. His defection might be interpreted as a symbolic gesture rather than a substantive challenge to the incumbent administration, highlighting the persistent limitations of Nigeria’s contemporary political dynamics. He has been seen moving from one big political figure to another, including going to the home of the former president in an attempt to give credence to his moves, yet he could not clean up the traces of his aging and diminishing relevance in the circle of politics. Despite El-Rufai’s efforts, the entrenched political dynamics and the lack of a cohesive ideological framework within the opposition diminish the likelihood of any substantial electoral upset in 2027.
The lack of a unified vision and coherent policy proposals among these opposition figures only exacerbates their inability to present a credible alternative to the electorate. Given the historical context of electoral politics in Nigeria, the absence of a cohesive opposition strategy further compounds the challenge of altering the status quo, rendering El-Rufai’s defection more an act of political theater than a catalyst for genuine change. Moreover, the entrenched interests and loyalties within the APC continue to present formidable barriers to any meaningful opposition realignment.
The political landscape appears to be more about individual ambitions and less about a unified front capable of mounting a serious challenge to the incumbent powers. This scenario underscores the cyclical nature of political realignments in Nigeria, where shifts often reflect personal ambitions rather than a genuine ideological departure from established norms. While El-Rufai’s attempts to forge alliances with other opposition figures such as Peter Obi, Atiku Abubakar, and Rabiu Kwankwaso signal a desire to create a formidable coalition, the reality remains that such alliances often crumble under the weight of competing interests and personal ambitions, leaving the electorate disillusioned with yet another cycle of political theatrics. Moreover, the historical pattern of political defections in Nigeria suggests that such moves are often perceived as mere strategic repositioning rather than genuine ideological shifts.
Despite the theatrical nature of these political maneuvers, the entrenched power dynamics and loyalty networks within Nigeria’s political landscape make it exceedingly difficult for any new coalition, no matter how strategically crafted, to truly upend the status quo. While El-Rufai’s intentions may appear bold, they are unlikely to disrupt the deeply entrenched political machinery that has long favored incumbents like Tinubu and Shettima.
Despite these efforts, the pervasive influence of existing political structures suggests that any such coalition is more likely to fracture under pressure rather than mount a successful challenge. Given the entrenched interests and historical voting patterns, it appears unlikely that such a coalition could effectively disrupt the established political dominance of Tinubu and Shettima in the upcoming election. This skepticism is further compounded by the perception that El-Rufai’s defection and subsequent coalition-building efforts are more about personal political survival than a genuine commitment to transformative change. Despite the apparent allure of a united front, the reality remains that these alliances often falter under the weight of conflicting agendas and entrenched political loyalties. Moreover, the historical precedent of political realignments in Nigeria often results in temporary alliances that lack the cohesion necessary to present a formidable challenge to established power structures.
READ ALSO: https://newsng.ng/tinubushettima-the-epidemic-of-economic-insecurity-in-nigeria/
The skepticism surrounding El-Rufai’s defection is echoed by the Nigerian Presidency and APC, who dismiss his move as a futile endeavor motivated by personal ambition rather than a genuine ideological shift. Indeed, El-Rufai’s maneuver is less about ideological realignment and more a reconfiguration of elite power dynamics within the ruling class. As observed by many political analysts, the political landscape remains largely unchanged, with the same elite power dynamics at play, suggesting that any perceived threat from El-Rufai’s move is unlikely to materialize into a significant challenge.
This skepticism is further reinforced by the broader historical context of Nigerian politics, where similar attempts to consolidate opposition forces have often unraveled due to internal dissent and the prioritization of individual ambitions over collective goals. Additionally, the inherent volatility of such coalitions, often marred by a lack of unified vision and the dominance of competing interests, further diminishes their potential to unseat entrenched incumbents. Historical patterns also suggest that such coalitions often struggle to sustain momentum and coherence, especially when faced with the entrenched influence of incumbents like Tinubu and Vice President Kashim Shettima.
Given this context, El-Rufai’s efforts to rally opposition figures like Peter Obi and others around the SDP banner might appear ambitious, but without a cohesive strategy or compelling ideological narrative, such alliances are prone to fragmentation and ultimately ineffectual in altering the prevailing status quo.
The entrenched political machinery supporting President Tinubu and Vice President Kashim Shettima possesses significant resources and influence, making it a formidable barrier for any nascent coalition lacking internal solidarity and a resonant national platform. Despite these strategic maneuvers, the historical precedent and current political landscape suggest that El-Rufai’s efforts may ultimately falter against the deeply entrenched systems supporting Tinubu and Shettima.
The historical resilience of incumbent structures in Nigerian politics, characterized by their adept patronage networks and control over vital state apparatuses, presents another significant challenge for any opposition coalition seeking to disrupt the status quo. Without a clear ideological foundation and a unified agenda that resonates with the broader electorate, such attempts are often perceived as mere political repositioning rather than genuine efforts to instigate meaningful change. In 2027, President Tinubu and Vice President Kashim Shettima will take the oath again for the second time, and El-Rufai will still have no political credibility to make a difference in Nigeria’s political circle.
* James Bwala, PhD, writes from Abuja.
El-Rufai: A calculated yet potentially ineffectual strategy to challenge Tinubu and Shettima’s re-election bid in 2027.
Politics
2027: When Tinubu’s endorsement of Vice President Kashim Shettima’s unwavering support speaks volumes
2027: When Tinubu’s endorsement of Vice President Kashim Shettima’s unwavering support speaks volumes
By: Dr. James Bwala
On Sunday, May 24, 2026, at the Bola Ahmed Tinubu International Conference Centre in Abuja, President Bola Ahmed Tinubu delivered a powerful acceptance speech upon his nomination as the All Progressives Congress (APC) flag bearer for the 2027 presidential election. His words were not only an affirmation of his leadership vision but also a robust endorsement of Vice President Kashim Shettima’s unwavering support and integral role within this administration. This public commendation serves as a cornerstone for dispelling mistrust and malicious rumors surrounding the office of the vice president, creating a persuasive narrative about unity, shared purpose, and inclusive governance for Nigeria’s future.
At the heart of President Tinubu’s speech was a resounding acknowledgment of Vice President Kashim Shettima as a “pillar of support” during an undoubtedly challenging period in Nigeria’s political and socio-economic history. The relevance of this commendation transcends mere formality; it underscores a fundamental truth about effective governance—the indispensable role of mutual trust and partnership between a president and their vice president. In an era where political alliances are frequently strained by internal discord and where opposition forces eagerly exploit any hint of division, Tinubu’s public appreciation is an unequivocal message: the administration is cohesive and resilient.
READ ALSO: https://newsng.ng/2027-vp-shettima-is-the-soul-of-the-tinubu-ticket/
The phrase, “The journey so far is challenging, but your support is encouraging; there is no doubt about that,” encapsulates the essence of collaborative leadership. These words reflect not only the trials faced by the government but also reveal the vice president’s steadfast commitment to the administration’s objectives. By highlighting Shettima’s role, Tinubu is affirming that progress requires collective effort, especially in contexts fraught with socioeconomic challenges, security concerns, and institutional reforms. This articulation fosters confidence among Nigerians, signaling that the leadership is united in purpose and determined to overcome adversity through solidarity.
The president’s direct address to Vice President Shettima—“Kashim Shettima, thank you very much. Together and with the help of God Almighty, we shall build a more secure, united, and prosperous Nigeria for generations to come”—is more than a personal note of gratitude. It is a strategic reaffirmation of shared responsibility and future ambition. This statement embodies a forward-looking vision, grounded in faith and partnership, which are essential for sustaining momentum towards national goals. By invoking the divine, Tinubu connects with the deeply spiritual sensibilities of many Nigerians, thereby lending moral weight to their joint mission.
READ ALSO: https://newsng.ng/2027-vp-shettima-is-the-soul-of-the-tinubu-ticket/
The implications of this endorsement extend significantly beyond the immediate political context. It dispels the pernicious rumors and speculation often exploited by political opponents or detractors who seek to destabilize the government by sowing seeds of distrust. The so-called “Shettima issue,” which has been circulated as an attempt to insinuate discord within the presidency, is effectively nullified by the president’s explicit praise and recognition. In doing so, Tinubu not only strengthens the internal cohesion of his administration but also sends a clear signal to the Nigerian populace and international observers that the government operates on principles of unity and transparency.
President Tinubu’s commitment to building “an even more inclusive government.” One that listens. The government that learns and leads with the best interest of Nigerians at heart” resonates deeply with democratic ideals. This pledge offers reassurance that the administration values the diverse voices and experiences of Nigeria’s multifaceted society. An inclusive government is a government that embraces the richness of its ethnic, religious, and cultural diversity, ensuring that policies and programs reflect the common good rather than sectional interests. It is a decisive stance against divisiveness and exclusion, which have historically plagued Nigerian politics.
READ ALSO: https://newsng.ng/2027-vp-shettima-is-the-soul-of-the-tinubu-ticket/
In advancing this vision, Tinubu leverages the symbolic and practical significance of Shettima’s role as vice president. Shettima’s inclusiveness, experience, and political acumen complement the president’s agenda, reinforcing the government’s capacity to implement policies aimed at national reconciliation and development. The administration’s unity at the highest level reassures stakeholders—both domestic and international—that Nigeria remains on a path of political stability and economic recovery.
Critics may argue that such public acknowledgments are politically motivated, designed to mask deeper issues within the government. However, it is vital to recognize that leadership communication in a democracy must be transparent and deliberate. Public affirmations of unity, especially amid turbulent political climates, serve an essential function in maintaining citizens’ trust and preventing the erosion of institutional credibility. This speech is a strategic instrument that stabilizes the political environment by fostering a collective identity and purpose.
READ ALSO: https://newsng.ng/2027-vp-shettima-is-the-soul-of-the-tinubu-ticket/
Building on this foundation, the emphasis on security, unity, and prosperity as core objectives highlights the administration’s responsiveness to the most pressing concerns of Nigerians. Security challenges, including insurgency, banditry, and communal clashes, have long undermined Nigeria’s potential. By articulating a shared commitment with Shettima to address these issues, Tinubu signals a coordinated approach that enhances the government’s legitimacy and effectiveness.
Similarly, the insistence on unity reflects an acute awareness of Nigeria’s complex social fabric and the need for harmony across ethnic and regional lines. Unity is not merely a political slogan but a prerequisite for sustainable development and peace. Through this lens, the administration’s rhetoric serves as a beacon of hope that transcends partisan divides, inviting all Nigerians to partake in nation-building.
READ ALSO: https://newsng.ng/2027-vp-shettima-is-the-soul-of-the-tinubu-ticket/
The aspiration for prosperity aligns with developmental priorities such as economic diversification, job creation, infrastructure development, and education reform. By linking these goals to the administration’s unified leadership, Tinubu inspires confidence that the government is positioned to deliver tangible results that will benefit current and future generations.
President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s public appreciation of Vice President Kashim Shettima at his acceptance speech for the 2027 APC presidential candidacy exemplifies effective political leadership rooted in unity, inclusiveness, and shared vision. It confronts and dispels damaging rumors, reinforces a message of collective responsibility, and lays a foundation for an administration committed to listening, learning, and leading with the people’s best interests at heart.
READ ALSO: https://newsng.ng/2027-vp-shettima-is-the-soul-of-the-tinubu-ticket/
For Nigeria to navigate its myriad challenges and achieve lasting security, unity, and prosperity, such cohesive leadership is indispensable. The partnership between Tinubu and Shettima presents a compelling model for collaborative governance, inspiring a hopeful trajectory for the nation’s democratic future.
* James Bwala, PhD, writes from Abuja
2027: When Tinubu’s endorsement of Vice President Kashim Shettima’s unwavering support speaks volumes
APC Primary peaceful, as Tinubu clears vote in Adamawa South -Abbati
The All Progressives Congress (APC) Presidential Primary has been conducted peacefully in Shelleng Local Government Area, Adamawa State with massive support for President Bola Tinubu’s re-election in 2027.
Aliyu Abdulhameed Abbati, Coordinator/Collation Officer for the APC Presidential Primaries, disclosed this during the collation of results in Shelleng Local Government Area of Adamawa State.
Abbati who is the former Aspirant, APC Adamawa Central Senatorial District
expressed satisfaction with the exercise and called on the people in the area to understand that the re-election of President Tinubu will herald positive changes for the country.
According to him, Nigeria is yearning for change and APC is ready to transform the country and deliver more dividends of democracy at the grassroots level.
He added that Mr President has been doing his best and will continue to do so in his second term in office.
In his remarks, Mr Joshua Njim, the APC Chairman in Shelleng LGA, said the exercise was peaceful across the 10 political wards of the area.
According to him, President Tinubu is leading in Shelleng LGA.
He appreciated Mr Abbati and his team for effective supervision and understanding throughout the exercise.
In his address, Haruna Ibrahim, the Commissioner Ministry of Mineral Resource, Adamawa State appreciated contributions of President Tinubu for economic development in the country.
He said with the APC as the leading party in the country and the state more development would be recorded in the state especially at the grassroots.
According to him, Shelleng is an agrarian area that needed the contribution of the Federal government for food security and economic development.
APC Primary peaceful, as Tinubu clears vote in Adamawa South -Abbati
ADC Moves to Break APC Grip on Borno as Durkwa, Bulama Fugu Lead 2027 Political Battle
By:Michael Mike
In what appears to be the strongest opposition realignment ahead of the 2027 general elections in Borno State, the African Democratic Congress (ADC) has unveiled heavyweight senatorial, House of Representatives and State Assembly candidates in a direct challenge to the long-standing dominance of the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC).
The party’s emergence of former APC governorship aspirant Idris Mamman Durkwa for Borno South, alongside Bulama Fugu and Babagana Zanna, signals what political observers describe as an ambitious attempt to dismantle APC’s political stronghold in the state.
The ADC consensus primaries held in Maiduguri produced candidates expected to confront some of Borno’s most influential political figures, including Senator Ali Ndume, Senate Chief Whip Mohammed Tahir Monguno and Senator Kaka Shehu Lawan.
The opposition party said its strategy is built around presenting “credible alternatives” capable of capitalising on growing public frustration over insecurity, economic hardship and governance challenges across the state and the country.
ADC Organising Secretary, Mohammed Bolori, disclosed that about 25 State Assembly candidates and eight House of Representatives candidates were affirmed through consensus by party stakeholders, describing the move as part of broader efforts to strengthen the party’s grassroots structure before 2027.
The development is expected to intensify political rivalry in Borno, particularly in Borno South, where Senator Ndume recently secured fresh endorsements from APC stakeholders and Deputy Speaker Abdullahi Musa Askira.
Bolori, while criticising the APC-led administration over worsening hardship and insecurity, assured supporters that ADC candidates would prioritise security, economic recovery and social welfare if elected.
With governorship primaries and additional House of Representatives contests still ahead, political analysts believe the ADC is positioning itself for what could become one of the fiercest electoral contests in Borno’s recent political history.
ADC Moves to Break APC Grip on Borno as Durkwa, Bulama Fugu Lead 2027 Political Battle
2027: When Tinubu’s endorsement of Vice President Kashim Shettima’s unwavering support speaks volumes
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