Politics
El-Rufai: A calculated yet potentially ineffectual strategy to challenge Tinubu and Shettima’s re-election bid in 2027.
El-Rufai: A calculated yet potentially ineffectual strategy to challenge Tinubu and Shettima’s re-election bid in 2027.
By: Dr. James Bwala
The recent political maneuver by former governor of Kaduna State, Malam Nasir El-Rufai, left many political observers laughing. El-Rufai remains a new clown in the political arena since his rejection as a minister from Kaduna State under the Tinubu administration. El-Rufai’s defection to the Social Democratic Party (SDP) represents a calculated yet potentially ineffectual strategy to challenge President Bola Tinubu and Vice President Kashim Shettima’s 2027 reelection bid. El-Rufai’s move, characterized by claims of ideological divergence from the APC, appears more rooted in personal political ambitions than substantive systemic transformation, which he continually hopes Nigerians believe.
Critical analysis suggests that El-Rufai’s defection is symptomatic of intra-elite power reconfiguration rather than a genuine oppositional movement. The strategic repositioning reflects deeper fractures within Nigeria’s political landscape, where elite negotiations supersede meaningful democratic representation. While El-Rufai attempts to mobilize opposition figures like Peter Obi and Atiku Abubakar, the fundamental power structures remain remarkably unchanged.
Ultimately, the proposed alliance faces significant challenges. The fragmentation of opposition forces, combined with the APC’s entrenched political machinery, renders El-Rufai’s efforts potentially futile. His defection might be interpreted as a symbolic gesture rather than a substantive challenge to the incumbent administration, highlighting the persistent limitations of Nigeria’s contemporary political dynamics. He has been seen moving from one big political figure to another, including going to the home of the former president in an attempt to give credence to his moves, yet he could not clean up the traces of his aging and diminishing relevance in the circle of politics. Despite El-Rufai’s efforts, the entrenched political dynamics and the lack of a cohesive ideological framework within the opposition diminish the likelihood of any substantial electoral upset in 2027.
The lack of a unified vision and coherent policy proposals among these opposition figures only exacerbates their inability to present a credible alternative to the electorate. Given the historical context of electoral politics in Nigeria, the absence of a cohesive opposition strategy further compounds the challenge of altering the status quo, rendering El-Rufai’s defection more an act of political theater than a catalyst for genuine change. Moreover, the entrenched interests and loyalties within the APC continue to present formidable barriers to any meaningful opposition realignment.
The political landscape appears to be more about individual ambitions and less about a unified front capable of mounting a serious challenge to the incumbent powers. This scenario underscores the cyclical nature of political realignments in Nigeria, where shifts often reflect personal ambitions rather than a genuine ideological departure from established norms. While El-Rufai’s attempts to forge alliances with other opposition figures such as Peter Obi, Atiku Abubakar, and Rabiu Kwankwaso signal a desire to create a formidable coalition, the reality remains that such alliances often crumble under the weight of competing interests and personal ambitions, leaving the electorate disillusioned with yet another cycle of political theatrics. Moreover, the historical pattern of political defections in Nigeria suggests that such moves are often perceived as mere strategic repositioning rather than genuine ideological shifts.
Despite the theatrical nature of these political maneuvers, the entrenched power dynamics and loyalty networks within Nigeria’s political landscape make it exceedingly difficult for any new coalition, no matter how strategically crafted, to truly upend the status quo. While El-Rufai’s intentions may appear bold, they are unlikely to disrupt the deeply entrenched political machinery that has long favored incumbents like Tinubu and Shettima.
Despite these efforts, the pervasive influence of existing political structures suggests that any such coalition is more likely to fracture under pressure rather than mount a successful challenge. Given the entrenched interests and historical voting patterns, it appears unlikely that such a coalition could effectively disrupt the established political dominance of Tinubu and Shettima in the upcoming election. This skepticism is further compounded by the perception that El-Rufai’s defection and subsequent coalition-building efforts are more about personal political survival than a genuine commitment to transformative change. Despite the apparent allure of a united front, the reality remains that these alliances often falter under the weight of conflicting agendas and entrenched political loyalties. Moreover, the historical precedent of political realignments in Nigeria often results in temporary alliances that lack the cohesion necessary to present a formidable challenge to established power structures.
READ ALSO: https://newsng.ng/tinubushettima-the-epidemic-of-economic-insecurity-in-nigeria/
The skepticism surrounding El-Rufai’s defection is echoed by the Nigerian Presidency and APC, who dismiss his move as a futile endeavor motivated by personal ambition rather than a genuine ideological shift. Indeed, El-Rufai’s maneuver is less about ideological realignment and more a reconfiguration of elite power dynamics within the ruling class. As observed by many political analysts, the political landscape remains largely unchanged, with the same elite power dynamics at play, suggesting that any perceived threat from El-Rufai’s move is unlikely to materialize into a significant challenge.
This skepticism is further reinforced by the broader historical context of Nigerian politics, where similar attempts to consolidate opposition forces have often unraveled due to internal dissent and the prioritization of individual ambitions over collective goals. Additionally, the inherent volatility of such coalitions, often marred by a lack of unified vision and the dominance of competing interests, further diminishes their potential to unseat entrenched incumbents. Historical patterns also suggest that such coalitions often struggle to sustain momentum and coherence, especially when faced with the entrenched influence of incumbents like Tinubu and Vice President Kashim Shettima.
Given this context, El-Rufai’s efforts to rally opposition figures like Peter Obi and others around the SDP banner might appear ambitious, but without a cohesive strategy or compelling ideological narrative, such alliances are prone to fragmentation and ultimately ineffectual in altering the prevailing status quo.
The entrenched political machinery supporting President Tinubu and Vice President Kashim Shettima possesses significant resources and influence, making it a formidable barrier for any nascent coalition lacking internal solidarity and a resonant national platform. Despite these strategic maneuvers, the historical precedent and current political landscape suggest that El-Rufai’s efforts may ultimately falter against the deeply entrenched systems supporting Tinubu and Shettima.
The historical resilience of incumbent structures in Nigerian politics, characterized by their adept patronage networks and control over vital state apparatuses, presents another significant challenge for any opposition coalition seeking to disrupt the status quo. Without a clear ideological foundation and a unified agenda that resonates with the broader electorate, such attempts are often perceived as mere political repositioning rather than genuine efforts to instigate meaningful change. In 2027, President Tinubu and Vice President Kashim Shettima will take the oath again for the second time, and El-Rufai will still have no political credibility to make a difference in Nigeria’s political circle.
* James Bwala, PhD, writes from Abuja.
El-Rufai: A calculated yet potentially ineffectual strategy to challenge Tinubu and Shettima’s re-election bid in 2027.
Politics
Zone B Rejects Senator Ahmed Lawan: An Exploratory Analysis of His Political Viability in Yobe State for the 2027 Governorship
Zone B Rejects Senator Ahmed Lawan: An Exploratory Analysis of His Political Viability in Yobe State for the 2027 Governorship
By: Dr. James Bwala
The political landscape of Nigeria is often punctuated by a myriad of personalities and ambitions, one of which is Senator Ahmed Lawan’s aspiration to govern Yobe State in the upcoming 2027 elections. As a seasoned politician and former Senate President, Ahmed Lawan carries with him a wealth of experience; however, the critical question arises: what has he delivered to Potiskum, Damaturu, or Nguru to deserve their votes? This inquiry has stirred considerable debate among Yobe State constituents and reflects the growing sentiment of disenchantment towards established political figures. The reactions from Zone B—homes to these key towns—indicate a complex interplay between political loyalty, public expectations, and the effectiveness of representation. Electorates within this zone say Lawan did nothing for them in all his overextended stay in the red chamber.
Understanding the current dynamics requires a brief historical overview of Yobe State politics. Established in 1991, Yobe has had its share of political turbulence, especially in the wake of the Boko Haram insurgency, which severely affected the northeastern states, including Yobe. The socio-economic conditions have significantly deteriorated, leading to a populace that demands accountability and tangible development from its leaders. In recent years, voters have become more discerning, expecting political candidates to present concrete achievements and plans rather than relying on party affiliations or past titles.
READ ALSO: https://newsng.ng/bego-shares-bunis-achievements-as-journalists-take-a-tour-in-yobe/
Senator Ahmed Lawan emerged as a prominent national figure through his tenure in the National Assembly, where he served multiple terms representing Yobe North. His role as Senate President awarded him visibility and influence over federal legislative processes. However, despite these privileges, the perception of his contributions to local governance in Potiskum, Damaturu, and Nguru remains contentious. Anecdotal evidence suggests that many constituents feel disconnected from the benefits of Lawan’s political stature, raising questions about the merit of his candidacy for the gubernatorial seat.
The question of what Ahmed Lawan has delivered resonates deeply within the electorate of Zone B. Political realities dictate that voters prioritize tangible benefits over abstract achievements. Reports from various community interactions reveal a growing dissatisfaction with traditional political narratives espoused by long-serving politicians like Lawan. Many constituents voice frustration over unmet promises, ineffective representation, and a perceived lack of initiative to tackle Yobe’s pressing issues, such as youth unemployment, healthcare, education, and infrastructure deficits.
At a time when Nigeria grapples with economic challenges exacerbated by insecurity, citizens are increasingly inclined to support candidates who demonstrate a genuine understanding of local issues and can articulate actionable plans for improvement. Social media platforms and town hall meetings amplify these concerns, showcasing a landscape where previous accolades, such as Lawan’s Senate leadership, do little to sway voters lacking firsthand experience of progress.
A pivotal aspect of this analysis involves scrutinizing Lawan’s recorded achievements and the critiques levied against him, particularly concerning his impact on his constituents. During his tenure, Lawan has championed various bills and initiatives at the national level, allegedly aimed at driving development across the nation. However, these efforts are often viewed through a skeptical lens by residents of Potiskum, Damaturu, and Nguru, who expect direct benefits.
READ ALSO: https://newsng.ng/bego-shares-bunis-achievements-as-journalists-take-a-tour-in-yobe/
For instance, although infrastructural projects may be initiated at the federal level, the tangible impact on local communities varies significantly. Reports indicate that significant resources allocated for developments sometimes yield minimal results, leading to skepticism regarding the efficacy of Lawan’s political maneuvers. Consequently, many residents in Zone B question whether their needs have been prioritized or merely sidelined during his continuous climb up the political ladder.
The legacy of previous governors in Yobe State also casts a long shadow over Lawan’s aspirations. Residents compare the current senator with past leaders who made discernible impacts on healthcare, education, and infrastructure, reinforcing the belief that simply holding a high office does not equate to delivering meaningful results. As discussions about his candidacy unfold, it becomes evident that Ahmed Lawan must articulate a compelling vision that addresses these discontents if he hopes to garner support.
As the 2027 election approaches, Lawan faces significant challenges. Primary among them is the need to rebuild trust and establish a genuine connection with the electorate. Engaging directly with communities, understanding their grievances, and developing localized solutions could become pivotal strategies for his campaign. Senator Ahmed Lawan must navigate the evolving political terrain, where emerging candidates leverage grassroots movements, challenging the status quo and resonating more profoundly with younger voters.
READ ALSO: https://newsng.ng/bego-shares-bunis-achievements-as-journalists-take-a-tour-in-yobe/
The influence of social media cannot be overstated in the current electoral climate. Platforms that facilitate civic engagement serve as double-edged swords; while they can amplify candidate messages, they also serve as venues for criticism and accountability. For Lawan, maintaining a proactive presence online and responding to public sentiment will be essential in shaping his narrative as a viable candidate for the governorship.
The factional divisions within the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) present another layer of complexity. While Ahmed Lawan enjoys national recognition, local party dynamics can either bolster or hinder his chances. Securing robust support from influential stakeholders and grassroots party members will be crucial as factions within Yobe’s political landscape begin to coalesce around potential rivals who might promise fresh perspectives and innovative solutions to long-standing challenges.
Senator Ahmed Lawan’s aspiration to govern Yobe State in 2027 is steeped in a multifaceted context that intertwines local expectations, political legacies, and emerging sociopolitical dynamics. The question, “What has Ahmed Lawan ever delivered to Potiskum, Damaturu, or Nguru?” serves as both a critique and a catalyst for deeper reflection on the responsibilities of elected officials. Reflecting on his past contributions and addressing the tangible needs of his constituents will be paramount for Lawan to carve out a path toward electoral success.
READ ALSO: https://newsng.ng/bego-shares-bunis-achievements-as-journalists-take-a-tour-in-yobe/
As Yobe State prepares for the upcoming gubernatorial race, it becomes increasingly clear that political aspirations must be anchored in accountability, empathy, and a commitment to genuine public service. For Senator Ahmed Lawan to resonate with the voters of Zone B, his campaign will require a transformative approach to engage with the community meaningfully and deliver on the hopes and aspirations of the people he seeks to govern. The journey ahead remains fraught with challenges, but as history has demonstrated, political landscapes can shift dramatically when candidates embrace the voices of those they aim to serve.
* James Bwala, PhD, writes from Abuja.
Zone B Rejects Senator Ahmed Lawan: An Exploratory Analysis of His Political Viability in Yobe State for the 2027 Governorship
Zulum picks APC’s digital membership card
By: Our Reporter
Borno State Governor, Professor Babagana Umara Zulum, on Sunday picked up his membership card for the ongoing All Progressives Congress’ (APC’s) digital registration exercise.
Governor Zulum was presented with his membership card by the Borno State APC chairman, Hon Bello Ayuba, following his registration by the agent of his ward, Aiari unit 003, after the flag off of the exercise at the party’s State secretariat in Maiduguri.
Alongside the governor, his deputy, Umar Usman Kadafur and the APC Deputy national chairman, Ali Bukar Dalori, have been presented with their membership cards.
Speaking shortly after the registration process, Zulum said: “Strengthening internal democracy is a key to stable democracy, and therefore, I call on all members of our party to register via the e-platform. Let us expand our membership.
“I believe Borno State can register more than 2 million people for the APC. I want all the critical stakeholders to work assiduously to ensure the success of this registration exercise.”
The APC’s digital membership card initiative aims to create a verifiable, centralised database of all party members. This system aims to enhance internal democracy, streamline communication, and facilitate more effective political engagement.
Ayuba commended Governor Zulum’s proactive leadership and mobilisation efforts, thanking him for the relentless support
The occasion was attended by the Chief Whip of the Senate, Barrister Mohammed Tahir Moguno, Senators Mohammed Ali Ndume and Barrister Kaka Shehu Lawan (SAN).
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Other high-level dignitaries present included the member representing Marte, Monguno, Ngangai constituency at the House of Representatives, Engr Bukar Talba; the Speaker of the Borno State House of Assembly, Abdulkarim Lawan; the Secretary to the Borno State Government, Malam Bukar Tijani; the Acting Chief of Staff, Dr Babagana Mallumbe; commissioners and other government officials.
Zulum picks APC’s digital membership card
VP Kashim Shettima: Leadership, Loyalty, and When Truth Laughs Last
By: Dr. James Bwala
It is undeniably a fact that the political landscape is often fraught with tension, rivalries, and competing narratives everywhere in the world where democracy thrives. In Nigeria, the recent criticisms directed at Vice President Kashim Shettima highlight the complexities of political alliances and the nature of public perception, especially where people don’t look for facts. Critics now calling for Shettima’s replacement ahead of the 2027 elections appear to forget their past demeanor during a critical juncture for the All Progressives Congress (APC) and its leadership, particularly when Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s ambition was still a dream. The narrative that seeks to undermine Shettima’s long-standing association with Tinubu, or “Jagaban,” is not only misguided but also undermines the principles of loyalty and consistency that are crucial in political partnerships.
At the heart of this discussion is the theme of loyalty in politics. Those who now vilify Shettima were, at some point, reluctant participants in the renewal of hope that characterized the Tinubu campaign. When the winds were unfavorable, and doubts about Tinubu’s presidential aspirations loomed large, Shettima emerged as a steadfast ally, rallying support and reinforcing confidence in Tinubu’s eventual success. This unwavering support is a testament to Shettima’s character and political acumen. In times of uncertainty, true leaders demonstrate their commitment not by wavering under pressure but by standing firm in their convictions. Shettima did stand firm.
READ ALSO: https://newsng.ng/borno-2027-fear-grips-political-elites-as-the-move-to-seek-governor-zulums-dark-horse-tops-discussion/
By revisiting this historical context, we can better understand the motivations behind the current wave of criticism. The calls for Shettima’s replacement seem to stem from an oversimplification of a highly intricate political relationship. Shettima’s partnership with Tinubu is built on years of collaboration and shared goals. A strong partnership can withstand the test of time only if both parties remain committed to their collective vision. The attempts to dismantle Shettima’s reputation reflect a misunderstanding of the dynamics at play; it isn’t merely about individual ambitions, but rather about maintaining the integrity of a well-established alliance.
Critics often resort to fabrications and speculative narratives that seek to portray Shettima as disloyal or ineffective. Such discourse serves little purpose other than to fuel division within the party and provide cover for individuals who may feel threatened by Shettima’s longstanding influence. This tendency to rewrite history reflects a broader issue within political discourse—the inclination to prioritize short-term gains over the long-term benefits of solidarity among allies. As political operatives engage in this behavior, they risk alienating those who genuinely believe in the party’s vision.
This criticism can also be interpreted as a reflection of insecurity among certain factions within the APC. By targeting Shettima, they aim to weaken one of the most formidable supporters of Tinubu, thus hoping to elevate their own standings within the party hierarchy. However, such tactics may ultimately backfire as they foster an atmosphere of distrust and resentment. The strength of any political party lies in its ability to unify its members around common goals. Infighting serves only to distract from the real issues facing the nation and creates opportunities for opposition parties to seize upon divisions.
READ ALSO: https://newsng.ng/borno-2027-fear-grips-political-elites-as-the-move-to-seek-governor-zulums-dark-horse-tops-discussion/
Addressing the partnership between Shettima and Tinubu must involve acknowledging their shared vision for Nigeria. Both politicians understand the imperative of economic development, security enhancement, and social cohesion in governing a nation as diverse as Nigeria. Their collaborative efforts have consistently focused on addressing these challenges head-on. Therefore, any attempt to malign Shettima’s contributions is essentially a critique of the larger framework they have both participated in forging. To dismiss his role is to diminish the significant strides taken by the APC under their joint stewardship.
Additionally, history will reveal whether or not the severe criticism leveled against Shettima is based in reality or merely serves the interests of those seeking to disrupt the status quo. Politicians come and go, but foundational reputations are built over years. Shettima has proven his mettle not just as a vice president, but as a reputable political player who commands respect within various circles. One cannot erase decades of hard work and an exemplary track record due to transient political friction or fabricated narratives. Indeed, truth and reputation are enduring forces that often transcend the fleeting nature of political rivalry.
As observers of Nigerian politics evaluate the current milieu, it becomes vital to encourage a more informed dialogue regarding leadership and loyalty. It is unjust to hold individuals accountable for mistakes made by a collective, especially when loyalty requires a degree of faith that can sometimes be tested. Politics should not devolve into an arena for personal vendettas cloaked as ideological disputes. Instead, it should embrace the tenets of constructive criticism and unity.
READ ALSO: https://newsng.ng/borno-2027-fear-grips-political-elites-as-the-move-to-seek-governor-zulums-dark-horse-tops-discussion/
The clamor for Vice President Kashim Shettima’s replacement, fueled by unsubstantiated claims and a disregard for historical allegiances, risks destabilizing the very foundation of the APC. Those who now criticize him must reckon with the fact that their distance during Shettima’s unwavering support for Tinubu illustrates a fundamental lack of accountability in their own political journey. Loyalty, consistency, and mutual respect must guide political behavior if there is to be sustainable progress. History teaches us that while individual fortunes may rise and fall, the legacy of partnerships forged in loyalty and common purpose endures. It is this enduring truth that stands against the tides of fabricated stories, ensuring that ultimately, truth will indeed laugh last.
* James Bwala, PhD, writes from Abuja.
VP Kashim Shettima: Leadership, Loyalty, and When Truth Laughs Last
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