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El-Rufai: A calculated yet potentially ineffectual strategy to challenge Tinubu and Shettima’s re-election bid in 2027.

Published

1 year ago

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Malam Nasir El-Rufai, former governor, Kaduna state

El-Rufai: A calculated yet potentially ineffectual strategy to challenge Tinubu and Shettima’s re-election bid in 2027.

By: Dr. James Bwala

The recent political maneuver by former governor of Kaduna State, Malam Nasir El-Rufai, left many political observers laughing. El-Rufai remains a new clown in the political arena since his rejection as a minister from Kaduna State under the Tinubu administration. El-Rufai’s defection to the Social Democratic Party (SDP) represents a calculated yet potentially ineffectual strategy to challenge President Bola Tinubu and Vice President Kashim Shettima’s 2027 reelection bid. El-Rufai’s move, characterized by claims of ideological divergence from the APC, appears more rooted in personal political ambitions than substantive systemic transformation, which he continually hopes Nigerians believe. 

Critical analysis suggests that El-Rufai’s defection is symptomatic of intra-elite power reconfiguration rather than a genuine oppositional movement. The strategic repositioning reflects deeper fractures within Nigeria’s political landscape, where elite negotiations supersede meaningful democratic representation. While El-Rufai attempts to mobilize opposition figures like Peter Obi and Atiku Abubakar, the fundamental power structures remain remarkably unchanged.

Ultimately, the proposed alliance faces significant challenges. The fragmentation of opposition forces, combined with the APC’s entrenched political machinery, renders El-Rufai’s efforts potentially futile. His defection might be interpreted as a symbolic gesture rather than a substantive challenge to the incumbent administration, highlighting the persistent limitations of Nigeria’s contemporary political dynamics. He has been seen moving from one big political figure to another, including going to the home of the former president in an attempt to give credence to his moves, yet he could not clean up the traces of his aging and diminishing relevance in the circle of politics. Despite El-Rufai’s efforts, the entrenched political dynamics and the lack of a cohesive ideological framework within the opposition diminish the likelihood of any substantial electoral upset in 2027.

The lack of a unified vision and coherent policy proposals among these opposition figures only exacerbates their inability to present a credible alternative to the electorate. Given the historical context of electoral politics in Nigeria, the absence of a cohesive opposition strategy further compounds the challenge of altering the status quo, rendering El-Rufai’s defection more an act of political theater than a catalyst for genuine change. Moreover, the entrenched interests and loyalties within the APC continue to present formidable barriers to any meaningful opposition realignment. 

The political landscape appears to be more about individual ambitions and less about a unified front capable of mounting a serious challenge to the incumbent powers. This scenario underscores the cyclical nature of political realignments in Nigeria, where shifts often reflect personal ambitions rather than a genuine ideological departure from established norms. While El-Rufai’s attempts to forge alliances with other opposition figures such as Peter Obi, Atiku Abubakar, and Rabiu Kwankwaso signal a desire to create a formidable coalition, the reality remains that such alliances often crumble under the weight of competing interests and personal ambitions, leaving the electorate disillusioned with yet another cycle of political theatrics. Moreover, the historical pattern of political defections in Nigeria suggests that such moves are often perceived as mere strategic repositioning rather than genuine ideological shifts. 

Despite the theatrical nature of these political maneuvers, the entrenched power dynamics and loyalty networks within Nigeria’s political landscape make it exceedingly difficult for any new coalition, no matter how strategically crafted, to truly upend the status quo. While El-Rufai’s intentions may appear bold, they are unlikely to disrupt the deeply entrenched political machinery that has long favored incumbents like Tinubu and Shettima. 

Despite these efforts, the pervasive influence of existing political structures suggests that any such coalition is more likely to fracture under pressure rather than mount a successful challenge. Given the entrenched interests and historical voting patterns, it appears unlikely that such a coalition could effectively disrupt the established political dominance of Tinubu and Shettima in the upcoming election. This skepticism is further compounded by the perception that El-Rufai’s defection and subsequent coalition-building efforts are more about personal political survival than a genuine commitment to transformative change. Despite the apparent allure of a united front, the reality remains that these alliances often falter under the weight of conflicting agendas and entrenched political loyalties. Moreover, the historical precedent of political realignments in Nigeria often results in temporary alliances that lack the cohesion necessary to present a formidable challenge to established power structures. 

READ ALSO: https://newsng.ng/tinubushettima-the-epidemic-of-economic-insecurity-in-nigeria/

The skepticism surrounding El-Rufai’s defection is echoed by the Nigerian Presidency and APC, who dismiss his move as a futile endeavor motivated by personal ambition rather than a genuine ideological shift. Indeed, El-Rufai’s maneuver is less about ideological realignment and more a reconfiguration of elite power dynamics within the ruling class. As observed by many political analysts, the political landscape remains largely unchanged, with the same elite power dynamics at play, suggesting that any perceived threat from El-Rufai’s move is unlikely to materialize into a significant challenge.

This skepticism is further reinforced by the broader historical context of Nigerian politics, where similar attempts to consolidate opposition forces have often unraveled due to internal dissent and the prioritization of individual ambitions over collective goals. Additionally, the inherent volatility of such coalitions, often marred by a lack of unified vision and the dominance of competing interests, further diminishes their potential to unseat entrenched incumbents. Historical patterns also suggest that such coalitions often struggle to sustain momentum and coherence, especially when faced with the entrenched influence of incumbents like Tinubu and Vice President Kashim Shettima.

Given this context, El-Rufai’s efforts to rally opposition figures like Peter Obi and others around the SDP banner might appear ambitious, but without a cohesive strategy or compelling ideological narrative, such alliances are prone to fragmentation and ultimately ineffectual in altering the prevailing status quo. 

The entrenched political machinery supporting President Tinubu and Vice President Kashim Shettima possesses significant resources and influence, making it a formidable barrier for any nascent coalition lacking internal solidarity and a resonant national platform. Despite these strategic maneuvers, the historical precedent and current political landscape suggest that El-Rufai’s efforts may ultimately falter against the deeply entrenched systems supporting Tinubu and Shettima.

The historical resilience of incumbent structures in Nigerian politics, characterized by their adept patronage networks and control over vital state apparatuses, presents another significant challenge for any opposition coalition seeking to disrupt the status quo. Without a clear ideological foundation and a unified agenda that resonates with the broader electorate, such attempts are often perceived as mere political repositioning rather than genuine efforts to instigate meaningful change. In 2027, President Tinubu and Vice President Kashim Shettima will take the oath again for the second time, and El-Rufai will still have no political credibility to make a difference in Nigeria’s political circle. 

* James Bwala, PhD, writes from Abuja.

El-Rufai: A calculated yet potentially ineffectual strategy to challenge Tinubu and Shettima’s re-election bid in 2027.

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Politics

2027: Of Shettima’s remarks And Atiku’s response 

Published

18 hours ago

on

April 13, 2026

By

VP Kashim Shettima And former VP Atiku Abubakar

2027: Of Shettima’s remarks And Atiku’s response 

By: Dr. James Bwala

I believe that interactions among top leaders often attract intense scrutiny and can influence public perception considerably. A recent episode involving former Vice President Atiku Abubakar and current Vice President Kashim Shettima provides a compelling case study on the intersection of respect, cultural values, and political discourse. Atiku’s claim of refusal to engage publicly with Kashim, labeling him as disrespectful, juxtaposed with Kashim’s assertion that his comments were merely political challenges devoid of personal offense, raises essential questions about the nature of respect in politics, especially within the cultural context of Northern Nigeria. 

While respect and decorum are foundational values, particularly in traditional societies, political engagement demands a distinct understanding where robust debate and challenge are not only expected but necessary. Atiku, given his extensive experience, should recognize this distinction and refrain from conflating political contestation with personal disrespect.

READ ALSO: https://newsng.ng/2027-ishaya-malgwi-does-not-reflect-the-sentiments-or-intentions-of-northern-leadership-nor-the-stance-of-vice-president-kashim-shettima/

It is critical first to understand the cultural backdrop against which these statements were made. Northern Nigerian society places immense importance on respect, especially towards elders and those who hold traditional authority. In this context, respect is not merely a social nicety but a fundamental principle that preserves societal harmony and upholds long-standing customs. Atiku’s appeal to this cultural framework underscores a genuine concern for maintaining decorum in public discourse, reflecting a desire to keep political rivalry within respectful bounds. His position resonates with many who believe that politics should not erode the basic tenets of interpersonal respect that unify communities.

However, it is equally important to recognize that political arenas operate under somewhat different norms than traditional social settings. Politics inherently involves contestation, negotiation, and at times, confrontation. Public figures, especially those in leadership roles, are expected to engage vigorously with criticism and challenges, understanding that these encounters are part of the democratic process. VP Kashim Shettima’s response — framing his remarks as a call for transparency and accountability rather than a personal affront — exemplifies this political dynamic. In politics, questioning an opponent’s record or demanding clarification is not an act of disrespect but a fundamental exercise of democratic engagement designed to inform the electorate and hold leaders accountable.

READ ALSO: https://newsng.ng/2027-ishaya-malgwi-does-not-reflect-the-sentiments-or-intentions-of-northern-leadership-nor-the-stance-of-vice-president-kashim-shettima/

Atiku’s stance, which carefully separates political platforms from traditional ones, inadvertently blurs an important line. While it is true that traditional platforms emphasize honor and respect toward elders, contemporary political platforms must prioritize open dialogue and constructive criticism. By conflating the two realms, Atiku risks imposing cultural expectations that do not fully apply in the political sphere, which may inhibit honest debate. This conflation can be detrimental, as it discourages politicians from engaging transparently, fearing accusations of disrespect rather than focusing on the substance of their arguments.

Atiku’s considerable experience in Nigerian politics should provide him with a nuanced understanding of political etiquette—one that balances respect with the necessity for outspoken, even pointed, political discourse. Public officeholders should anticipate and accept challenges from their peers without interpreting them as personal attacks. VP Kashim Shettima’s comments, which called upon Atiku to specify his claims on mentorship of men in certain numbers, are a standard political maneuver aimed at fostering clarity and accountability. Such engagements are vital to democracy and should be welcomed rather than rebuffed.

READ ALSO: https://newsng.ng/2027-ishaya-malgwi-does-not-reflect-the-sentiments-or-intentions-of-northern-leadership-nor-the-stance-of-vice-president-kashim-shettima/

It is also worth considering the potential consequences of Atiku’s refusal to engage politically with Kashim Shettima. When senior politicians avoid direct discourse citing disrespect, it sets a precedent that political opponents cannot challenge each other robustly without incurring accusations of impropriety. This could stifle political debate, limit the electorate’s access to contrasting views, and ultimately weaken the democratic process. Healthy democracies thrive on transparent discussions where candidates and leaders openly articulate their policies, question one another’s records, and clarify positions without fear of personal reprisal.

Indeed, Kashim Shettima’s acknowledgment that his remarks were political rather than personal reflects a mature understanding of political culture. It signals a willingness to engage in substantive debate and an acceptance that political rivalry does not equate to personal enmity. This attitude should be encouraged among political leaders to foster an environment where ideas and policies take precedence over personal sensitivities. Such an environment is essential for the evolution of Nigeria’s democracy and the development of governance that truly serves the people.

READ ALSO: https://newsng.ng/2027-ishaya-malgwi-does-not-reflect-the-sentiments-or-intentions-of-northern-leadership-nor-the-stance-of-vice-president-kashim-shettima/

The response of former Vice President Atiku Abubakar and the stance of Vice President Kashim Shettima illustrates the tension between traditional values of respect and the vigorous nature of political engagement. While Atiku’s emphasis on decorum and cultural respect is commendable and reflective of his roots, it is imperative that he, and by extension all Nigerian politicians, differentiate between the expectations of traditional society and the requirements of political life. Political platforms demand open, sometimes confrontational dialogue that prioritizes truth and accountability over personal feelings.

Experienced politicians like Atiku should lead by example, demonstrating that respect in politics does not imply avoiding challenge but rather engaging with criticism constructively and without personalizing disputes. This distinction ensures that political debate remains vibrant and substantive, enriching Nigeria’s democratic culture. In this light, Kashim’s remarks represent the healthy functioning of political discourse, and Atiku’s response, though rooted in cultural sensibilities, would be better served by embracing the ethos of political respect—where contestation and honor coexist to strengthen governance and democracy. Thus, it is not disrespect but democracy in action as more of these would come to play as we head towards the 2027 election campaigns. 

James Bwala, PhD, writes from Abuja.

2027: Of Shettima’s remarks And Atiku’s response 

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2027: Ishaya Malgwi does not reflect the sentiments or intentions of northern leadership nor the stance of Vice President Kashim Shettima.

Published

6 days ago

on

April 8, 2026

By

Vice President Kashim Shettima.

2027: Ishaya Malgwi does not reflect the sentiments or intentions of northern leadership nor the stance of Vice President Kashim Shettima.

By: Dr. James Bwala

Insinuations by one, Mr. Ishaya Malawi, on the political happenings should be seen as the imaginations of his mindset. While he is free to make comments or statements as democratically allowed, there is a need for him to trade with caution, particularly in his attempts to drag the personality of the vice president, Kashim Shettima, into his imaginative sentiments. Recently, Mr. Ishaya Malgwi made an assertion suggesting that northern leaders might consider urging Vice President Kashim Shettima, GCON, to contest against President Bola Ahmed Tinubu, GCFR, under the banner of the All Progressives Congress (APC). This claim has sparked considerable debate and requires a measured response grounded in fact, loyalty, and an understanding of the current political trajectory of Nigeria under the APC administration. It is crucial to address this insinuation with clarity and responsibility to uphold the integrity of our democratic institutions and promote constructive political discourse.

Firstly, it is essential to establish that the suggestion by Mr. Malgwi does not reflect the sentiments or intentions of northern leadership nor the stance of Vice President Kashim Shettima himself. His Excellency, Vice President Kashim Shettima, is unequivocally loyal to President Bola Ahmed Tinubu and firmly committed to the collective vision and mission of the APC government. The relationship between the president and the vice president is founded on mutual respect, shared goals, and a dedication to the welfare of Nigerians. To insinuate otherwise undermines not only their personal integrity but also the unity and progress of the ruling party.

READ ALSO: https://newsng.ng/umth-when-vp-kashim-shettima-acknowledges-ahidjo-and-hospital-staff-for-their-services-to-victims-of-maiduguri-bomb-blasts/

The APC government, since its inception, has been dedicated to fostering good governance, promoting inclusive development, and ensuring security and stability across the nation. Contrary to the portrayal of a fragmented administration, the APC operates as a cohesive entity working tirelessly to address the myriad challenges facing Nigeria. The claim that the APC is running parallel or competing governments within itself is unfounded and detrimental to the image of the administration both domestically and internationally. Such assertions risk sowing discord and confusion among citizens, detracting from the government’s focus on delivering tangible results.

Also, it is important to contextualize the prevailing issues of unrest, insecurity, hunger, and dissatisfaction within a historical framework. These challenges are not novel to the Tinubu administration; rather, they are deep-rooted problems inherited from previous administrations, exacerbated over years by complex socio-economic and political factors. While the current government acknowledges these issues and is actively working toward sustainable solutions, it is misleading to suggest that these problems originated solely with the APC’s leadership. Political discourse should therefore be grounded in reality and aimed at constructive engagement rather than unfounded blame.

READ ALSO: https://newsng.ng/umth-when-vp-kashim-shettima-acknowledges-ahidjo-and-hospital-staff-for-their-services-to-victims-of-maiduguri-bomb-blasts/

Mr. Malgwi’s reputation for disseminating unsubstantiated claims and engaging in provocative rhetoric must also be considered when evaluating his recent comments. Political dialogue in Nigeria demands responsibility, accountability, and a commitment to truth. When individuals like Ishaya Malgwi resort to spreading misinformation or making baseless allegations, they do a disservice to the democratic process and undermine public trust in governance. It is imperative that criticism, when necessary, be based on factual evidence and delivered respectfully to enhance national cohesion.

In dispelling the notion that Vice President Kashim Shettima might run against President Tinubu, it is also pertinent to highlight the Vice President’s demonstrated loyalty and active involvement in advancing the administration’s agenda. Vice President Shettima’s role extends beyond mere symbolism; he is deeply engaged in policymaking, outreach, and implementation of government programs. His efforts have consistently aligned with the president’s policies, reflecting a harmonious partnership aimed at stabilizing and developing the nation. To drag his name into speculative and divisive narratives not only misrepresents his position but also risks damaging the political harmony essential for effective governance.

READ ALSO: https://newsng.ng/umth-when-vp-kashim-shettima-acknowledges-ahidjo-and-hospital-staff-for-their-services-to-victims-of-maiduguri-bomb-blasts/

Mr. Ishaya Malgwi should know that the political unity within the APC is pivotal for Nigeria’s progress. The party’s platform is built on principles of inclusivity, democracy, and national development. Internal cohesion ensures that the party can effectively address pressing national concerns such as economic revitalization, security challenges, infrastructure development, and social welfare. Attempts to insinuate internal contests or rivalries without substantial proof serve no purpose other than to destabilize the party and distract from its governance responsibilities.

The insinuation by Mr. Ishaya Malgwi regarding Vice President Kashim Shettima’s potential opposition to President Bola Ahmed Tinubu within the APC is baseless and misleading. It does not represent the views of northern leaders or reflect the reality of the administration’s internal dynamics. Vice President Shettima remains a loyal and integral part of the Tinubu-led government, which continues to pursue policies aimed at good governance and national development. 

The APC is not a house divided; it is a government determined to unify Nigerians and drive the country forward. Political discourse should honor the principles of truth, respect, and constructive criticism to foster an environment conducive to Nigeria’s growth and stability. Mr. Malgwi and others must exercise caution and responsibility in their public statements to avoid unnecessary political agitation and focus instead on supporting efforts that uphold Nigeria’s democratic values and collective prosperity.

* James Bwala, PhD, writes from Abuja.

2027: Ishaya Malgwi does not reflect the sentiments or intentions of northern leadership nor the stance of Vice President Kashim Shettima.

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Politics

ADC; Coalition Is Not Enough

Published

1 week ago

on

April 4, 2026

By

ADC; Coalition Is Not Enough

By Kunle Awosiyan

Sincerely, if you observe the politics of Bola Ahmed Tinubu keenly and critically, you will realise that he is a very thorough politician.

He goes beyond merely spreading his tentacles to bring people into his fold; he deploys every available tool to outmanoeuvre his opponents.

He looks beyond coalition-building, studying his adversaries like a football coach analysing opponents, identifying loopholes and exploiting them to secure victory.

Though trained as an accountant, Tinubu has immersed himself in research, journalism, and law, transforming these disciplines into strategic assets in his political playbook.

This is where many of his opponents have faltered. Rather than studying him, they have focused more on blackmail and rhetoric.

Instead of carefully navigating the legal and institutional frameworks of politics, they appear fixated on hastily dislodging him by jumping into any available political platform without adequately addressing procedural and legal vulnerabilities.

They needed a platform, no doubt, but have shown insufficient patience and diligence to close loopholes that could ultimately undermine their efforts.

Those in the opposition today, particularly within the African Democratic Congress (ADC), appear unprepared for the level of work required to clinch power.

If Tinubu were a football coach, he would lose very few matches and only by slim margins. He would win many more, including major trophies. Any coach hoping to defeat such a team must not only be intelligent but exceptionally thorough.

It is time the opposition understands that democracy, in its modern form, goes beyond the classical definition of government of the people, by the people, and for the people. It now encompasses the strategic deployment of law, not just the accumulation of votes, as a pathway to power.

Interestingly, the purported chairman of the ADC and former Senate President, David Mark, recently criticised the Independent National Electoral Commission, INEC, over its interpretation of the legal principle of status quo ante bellum.

This followed the derecognition of his leadership by the commission.

While the legal jargon may be complex, the implication is clear: those within the ADC understand the power of law in a democracy, yet have failed to deploy it effectively, choosing instead to blame Tinubu for their own strategic missteps.

The ruling party, All Progressives Congress, had swiftly replied ADC that neither the president nor the party is involved in its woe.

Ironically, two prominent figures within the ADC leadership ranks, Peter Obi and Rauf Aregbesola once benefited from judicial victories at different points in their political careers, underscoring the very importance of legal strategy in electoral contests.

Politicians seeking to challenge Tinubu, including Atiku Abubakar, David Mark, Nasir El-Rufai, Aregbesola, and Obi still have significant work to do if they are to mount a serious challenge. It is unfortunate that many appear to interpret democracy primarily through the lens of coalition-building, without deeper strategic grounding.

If Obi does not fully grasp this, one would expect Aregbesola given his political history with Tinubu to understand it better. Over the years, Tinubu has built structured teams: legal, economic, security, and political dedicated to analysing and countering opposition forces.

Among those in the ADC, Aregbesola may be the closest in experience to Tinubu’s model, but he cannot do it alone. One individual cannot match a coordinated network of experts working with a singular objective.

Let it be clear: INEC is not the enemy. However, it is bound by the rule of law and cannot act in defiance of court decisions.

Ultimately, for politicians who believe they can simply assemble themselves and appeal to public emotion through criticism of the ruling party, the reality is stark: modern democracy demands far more. It requires depth, structure, strategy, and above all, smartness.

ADC; Coalition Is Not Enough

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