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El-Rufai: A calculated yet potentially ineffectual strategy to challenge Tinubu and Shettima’s re-election bid in 2027.

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Malam Nasir El-Rufai, former governor, Kaduna state

El-Rufai: A calculated yet potentially ineffectual strategy to challenge Tinubu and Shettima’s re-election bid in 2027.

By: Dr. James Bwala

The recent political maneuver by former governor of Kaduna State, Malam Nasir El-Rufai, left many political observers laughing. El-Rufai remains a new clown in the political arena since his rejection as a minister from Kaduna State under the Tinubu administration. El-Rufai’s defection to the Social Democratic Party (SDP) represents a calculated yet potentially ineffectual strategy to challenge President Bola Tinubu and Vice President Kashim Shettima’s 2027 reelection bid. El-Rufai’s move, characterized by claims of ideological divergence from the APC, appears more rooted in personal political ambitions than substantive systemic transformation, which he continually hopes Nigerians believe. 

Critical analysis suggests that El-Rufai’s defection is symptomatic of intra-elite power reconfiguration rather than a genuine oppositional movement. The strategic repositioning reflects deeper fractures within Nigeria’s political landscape, where elite negotiations supersede meaningful democratic representation. While El-Rufai attempts to mobilize opposition figures like Peter Obi and Atiku Abubakar, the fundamental power structures remain remarkably unchanged.

Ultimately, the proposed alliance faces significant challenges. The fragmentation of opposition forces, combined with the APC’s entrenched political machinery, renders El-Rufai’s efforts potentially futile. His defection might be interpreted as a symbolic gesture rather than a substantive challenge to the incumbent administration, highlighting the persistent limitations of Nigeria’s contemporary political dynamics. He has been seen moving from one big political figure to another, including going to the home of the former president in an attempt to give credence to his moves, yet he could not clean up the traces of his aging and diminishing relevance in the circle of politics. Despite El-Rufai’s efforts, the entrenched political dynamics and the lack of a cohesive ideological framework within the opposition diminish the likelihood of any substantial electoral upset in 2027.

The lack of a unified vision and coherent policy proposals among these opposition figures only exacerbates their inability to present a credible alternative to the electorate. Given the historical context of electoral politics in Nigeria, the absence of a cohesive opposition strategy further compounds the challenge of altering the status quo, rendering El-Rufai’s defection more an act of political theater than a catalyst for genuine change. Moreover, the entrenched interests and loyalties within the APC continue to present formidable barriers to any meaningful opposition realignment. 

The political landscape appears to be more about individual ambitions and less about a unified front capable of mounting a serious challenge to the incumbent powers. This scenario underscores the cyclical nature of political realignments in Nigeria, where shifts often reflect personal ambitions rather than a genuine ideological departure from established norms. While El-Rufai’s attempts to forge alliances with other opposition figures such as Peter Obi, Atiku Abubakar, and Rabiu Kwankwaso signal a desire to create a formidable coalition, the reality remains that such alliances often crumble under the weight of competing interests and personal ambitions, leaving the electorate disillusioned with yet another cycle of political theatrics. Moreover, the historical pattern of political defections in Nigeria suggests that such moves are often perceived as mere strategic repositioning rather than genuine ideological shifts. 

Despite the theatrical nature of these political maneuvers, the entrenched power dynamics and loyalty networks within Nigeria’s political landscape make it exceedingly difficult for any new coalition, no matter how strategically crafted, to truly upend the status quo. While El-Rufai’s intentions may appear bold, they are unlikely to disrupt the deeply entrenched political machinery that has long favored incumbents like Tinubu and Shettima. 

Despite these efforts, the pervasive influence of existing political structures suggests that any such coalition is more likely to fracture under pressure rather than mount a successful challenge. Given the entrenched interests and historical voting patterns, it appears unlikely that such a coalition could effectively disrupt the established political dominance of Tinubu and Shettima in the upcoming election. This skepticism is further compounded by the perception that El-Rufai’s defection and subsequent coalition-building efforts are more about personal political survival than a genuine commitment to transformative change. Despite the apparent allure of a united front, the reality remains that these alliances often falter under the weight of conflicting agendas and entrenched political loyalties. Moreover, the historical precedent of political realignments in Nigeria often results in temporary alliances that lack the cohesion necessary to present a formidable challenge to established power structures. 

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The skepticism surrounding El-Rufai’s defection is echoed by the Nigerian Presidency and APC, who dismiss his move as a futile endeavor motivated by personal ambition rather than a genuine ideological shift. Indeed, El-Rufai’s maneuver is less about ideological realignment and more a reconfiguration of elite power dynamics within the ruling class. As observed by many political analysts, the political landscape remains largely unchanged, with the same elite power dynamics at play, suggesting that any perceived threat from El-Rufai’s move is unlikely to materialize into a significant challenge.

This skepticism is further reinforced by the broader historical context of Nigerian politics, where similar attempts to consolidate opposition forces have often unraveled due to internal dissent and the prioritization of individual ambitions over collective goals. Additionally, the inherent volatility of such coalitions, often marred by a lack of unified vision and the dominance of competing interests, further diminishes their potential to unseat entrenched incumbents. Historical patterns also suggest that such coalitions often struggle to sustain momentum and coherence, especially when faced with the entrenched influence of incumbents like Tinubu and Vice President Kashim Shettima.

Given this context, El-Rufai’s efforts to rally opposition figures like Peter Obi and others around the SDP banner might appear ambitious, but without a cohesive strategy or compelling ideological narrative, such alliances are prone to fragmentation and ultimately ineffectual in altering the prevailing status quo. 

The entrenched political machinery supporting President Tinubu and Vice President Kashim Shettima possesses significant resources and influence, making it a formidable barrier for any nascent coalition lacking internal solidarity and a resonant national platform. Despite these strategic maneuvers, the historical precedent and current political landscape suggest that El-Rufai’s efforts may ultimately falter against the deeply entrenched systems supporting Tinubu and Shettima.

The historical resilience of incumbent structures in Nigerian politics, characterized by their adept patronage networks and control over vital state apparatuses, presents another significant challenge for any opposition coalition seeking to disrupt the status quo. Without a clear ideological foundation and a unified agenda that resonates with the broader electorate, such attempts are often perceived as mere political repositioning rather than genuine efforts to instigate meaningful change. In 2027, President Tinubu and Vice President Kashim Shettima will take the oath again for the second time, and El-Rufai will still have no political credibility to make a difference in Nigeria’s political circle. 

* James Bwala, PhD, writes from Abuja.

El-Rufai: A calculated yet potentially ineffectual strategy to challenge Tinubu and Shettima’s re-election bid in 2027.

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The Unmatched Humility of Vice President Kashim Shettima: A Testament to Leadership in Nigeria

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The Unmatched Humility of Vice President Kashim Shettima: A Testament to Leadership in Nigeria

The Unmatched Humility of Vice President Kashim Shettima: A Testament to Leadership in Nigeria

By: Dr. James Bwala

In the complex landscape of Nigerian politics, leadership often comes with profound challenges, especially in a nation marked by diverse cultures, religions, and regions. In this milieu, humility emerges as a crucial trait for effective leadership. What Vice President Kashim Shettima said at the gathering in Enugu, where he received Governor Peter Mbah and thousands of decampees, reveals his strategic formula for winning oppositions both on political and personal grounds. “I find myself in a unique position, serving as the Vice President of Nigeria, and yet, it is important to acknowledge the exemplary leadership of my governor, Professor Babagana Umara Zulum of Borno State… My experience underlines an irrefutable truth.” Indeed, true leaders inspire through their humility and ethical governance, benefiting both their immediate constituency and the broader nation.

Vice President Kashim Shettima has not only been a significant figure in Nigeria’s political sphere but also a testament to the power of humility in leadership. Historically, Nigerian political dynamics have often revolved around power plays, tribal affiliations, and sycophantic politics, where loyalty is frequently bought rather than earned. In contrast, Shettima’s relationship with his governor offers a refreshing perspective—one rooted firmly in respect and recognition of genuine leadership capabilities. The indispensable nature of humility in governance, as exemplified by the unique relationship between Vice President Shettima and Governor Zulum, goes beyond politics.

First, it is imperative to delineate what we mean by humility in leadership. Humility is often misconstrued as weakness or submissiveness; however, in the realm of effective governance, it denotes a leader’s willingness to prioritize the needs of others above their own ego. Humility fosters collaboration, respect, and trust—qualities essential for any leader striving to implement policies for the good of all citizens. When leaders openly acknowledge their limitations and the contributions of others, they cultivate an environment conducive to innovation and collective success.

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In the context of Nigeria, where communal ties are deeply entrenched, humility plays a pivotal role in bridging divides. Kashim Shettima’s humility is evident in his approach to governance, where he acknowledges the invaluable contributions of Governor Zulum. When leaders operate within a framework that promotes mutual respect and cooperation, there is a tangible impact on the political climate. Shettima’s acknowledgment of Zulum’s leadership transcends the typical vice presidential role; it illustrates a partnership that inspires unity among citizens who rely on effective governance for their well-being.

Indeed, humility acts as a catalyst for responsiveness in leadership. Engaged leaders often listen actively to the voices of their constituents. Shettima’s support for Zulum’s initiatives, particularly his focus on education, healthcare, and rebuilding efforts in Borno State after years of insurgency, embodies this quality. Instead of competing with his governor, Shettima amplifies his vision and policies, ensuring that the plight of the people is addressed holistically. This symbiotic relationship serves as a model for how humility can drive progress, as the vice president utilizes his platform to elevate the work being done at the state level.

A notable instance illustrating this principle occurred during the Boko Haram crisis, which had devastated Borno State. Governor Zulum, renowned for his hands-on approach to governance, sought to provide relief and rehabilitation for displaced persons. Rather than distancing himself from the governor’s efforts, Shettima stepped forward, providing necessary federal support to facilitate these initiatives. This collaborative effort not only underscored the importance of cooperative governance but also demonstrated how humility can lead to more effective and compassionate responses to crisis situations.

The personal attributes of Vice President Shettima resonate powerfully with the citizens of Nigeria. In a time when politicians are often seen as distant and disconnected from the struggles of the average Nigerian, Shettima’s genuine approach stands in stark contrast. His ability to speak candidly and without pretense has fostered a sense of trust between himself, Governor Zulum, and the population they serve. This transparency is vital in an era where skepticism about political motives runs rampant. By embodying humility, Shettima encourages hope and empowerment, inspiring citizens to engage more actively in the democratic process.

However, it is essential to recognize that humility does not equate to indecisiveness or lack of authority. On the contrary, the most humble leaders often possess the confidence to make difficult decisions, rooted in their commitment to serving the greater good. Shettima illustrates this point clearly; he has navigated complex political terrains while remaining steadfastly supportive of Zulum’s initiatives. This combination of humility and decisiveness creates a strong leadership fabric that reassures citizens of their leaders’ commitment to their welfare.

The reciprocal nature of the Shettima-Zulum relationship invites a broader dialogue on the cultural paradigms of leadership in Nigeria. As we analyze the prevailing political narratives, it becomes evident that a shift toward humility-driven leadership could transform the nation’s governance landscape. The precedents set by Shettima and Zulum should inspire other leaders to adopt similar principles, prioritizing service and community over personal gain and ambition.

Critics may question whether such humility can be sustained in a political arena often characterized by competition and adversarial relationships. However, history has shown us that transformative change arises from consistent action and advocacy for shared values. For Nigeria to thrive, its leaders must cultivate environments where collaboration and respect prevail over discord. The Shettima-Zulum dynamic reinforces the idea that leveraging each other’s strengths leads to authentic, impactful governance.

The legacy of humility in leadership could reshape Nigeria’s political culture, fostering an atmosphere of accountability and ethical governance. When humility becomes a norm rather than an exception, we will witness a reduction in corruption and a rise in leaders genuinely dedicated to public service. The collective consciousness of a nation that embraces this ethos would empower citizens to hold their leaders accountable, thereby enhancing democracy’s effectiveness.

This exceptional humility of Vice President Kashim Shettima towards Governor Babagana Umara Zulum presents an invaluable model for leadership in Nigeria. This relationship illustrates how humility can serve not only as a personal virtue but also as a strategic asset in governance. By embracing humility, leaders can cultivate collaboration, engage authentically with their constituents, and drive meaningful change. 

The leadership approach of Shettima and Zulum stands as a beacon of hope for a nation yearning for transformative governance. As we move forward, it is imperative that we encourage our leaders to embody humility, recognizing that true greatness in leadership stems from a commitment to service and a deep respect for the collective journey towards national progress.

* James Bwala, PhD, writes from Abuja.

The Unmatched Humility of Vice President Kashim Shettima: A Testament to Leadership in Nigeria

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The NLC vs. Shettima: A Misplaced Blame Game in Labor Rights

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The NLC vs. Shettima: A Misplaced Blame Game in Labor Rights

The NLC vs. Shettima: A Misplaced Blame Game in Labor Rights

By: Dr. James Bwala

The National Labour Congress (NLC) has taken a critical stance against Vice President Kashim Shettima, alleging that he is shielding Aliko Dangote, a prominent industrialist, from the enforcement of labor laws. This assertion has sparked a heated debate regarding the role of government officials in upholding worker rights and the actual motivations behind the NLC’s criticisms. At first glance, the accusations may seem valid, but a deeper analysis reveals numerous inconsistencies and suggests that the NLC itself might be misdirecting its frustrations and VP Kashim Shettima is right. 

I read the lines from a caption on Vanguard Newspapers with deep thoughts; it is imperative to understand the context in which these accusations have been made. The Nigerian labor landscape has faced significant challenges, particularly in the oil sector, where safety, remuneration, and working conditions have been contentious issues. The PENGASAN (Petroleum and Natural Gas Senior Staff Association of Nigeria) is at the forefront of advocating for oil workers’ rights, and any perceived negligence by government officials, including top leadership, can understandably provoke outrage among its members. However, the NLC’s allegations appear to be more rooted in political maneuvering than substantive labor advocacy.

The NLC’s response to Shettima’s alleged protection of Dangote suggests a failure to appreciate the complexities of governance and the intersection between industry and labor rights. Shettima, as the Vice President, operates within a framework that requires balancing economic growth with labor rights. Dangote Industries represents a significant pillar of the Nigerian economy, contributing to job creation and fiscal revenue. Therefore, while it is vital for labor laws to be upheld, it is equally important to recognize the economic context in which these laws operate. Shielding an influential businessman like Dangote may not necessarily equate to an abandonment of labor rights; instead, it may reflect a broader strategy aimed at sustaining economic stability.

The notion that the NLC is advocating purely for the rights of oil workers becomes questionable when one considers the alleged “trickling profits of PENGASAN.” If NLC leaders are indeed benefiting from the very system they claim to challenge, it raises serious ethical questions about their motivations. Are they genuinely committed to improving labor conditions, or are they merely leveraging their position for personal gain? This potential conflict of interest dilutes the message of the NLC and raises skepticism regarding its criticisms of high-profile figures like Shettima.

One must also consider the implications of a targeted campaign against Dangote. The business environment in Nigeria is already fraught with challenges, including regulatory hurdles, corruption, and infrastructural deficits. Discrediting essential businesses and their leadership could have far-reaching consequences for the economy, disproportionately affecting the very workers the NLC claims to represent. Instead of pursuing a confrontational approach, dialogues and negotiations with industry leaders may lead to more fruitful outcomes for workers. The NLC should consider strategies that involve cooperative engagement rather than baseless allegations, fostering a climate of collaboration that can yield real improvements in labor conditions.

The existing labor laws in Nigeria need to be reevaluated and perhaps revised to meet the changing dynamics of the workforce. In their current form, many of these legislations do not adequately address modern workplace realities. The NLC must prioritize reforming these laws to ensure they protect workers effectively without stifling economic growth. By focusing efforts on legislative improvement rather than personal attacks, the NLC could present itself as a constructive force in the labor movement, focusing on solutions rather than scapegoats.

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The NLC’s criticism does not only undermine its integrity but can also alienate potential allies in the quest for labor reform. Kashim Shettima, being part of the government, could be an instrumental ally in driving positive changes in labor laws if approached correctly. The decision to position him as an antagonist may close off avenues for potential collaboration and thwart progress in labor advocacy. The NLC risks marginalizing itself and losing the support of the very workers it strives to help by adopting this combative strategy.

Critics of Shettima argue that the vice president should unequivocally stand against influential businessmen who disregard labor laws. However, this perspective overlooks the intricacies of leadership and the need for strategic alliances in governance. While Shettima has a duty to uphold labor rights, he also has to consider the broader economic implications of his actions. A nuanced approach to labor relations, taking into account the economic realities facing Nigeria, will ultimately benefit workers more than knee-jerk reactions and targeted blame assessments.

For many Nigerians, it is crucial to acknowledge that the responsibility of upholding labor rights does not lie solely on government officials. Businesses, including Dangote’s, must also take accountability for ensuring fair labor practices within their operations. There is a shared responsibility among all stakeholders—government, labor unions, and businesses—to create a sustainable framework for labor rights. Thus, instead of vilifying individuals, conversations should be directed toward fostering a culture of compliance and ethical practice across all sectors.

While the concerns raised by the NLC regarding labor rights are undoubtedly valid, blaming Vice President Kashim Shettima for allegedly shielding Dangote oversimplifies a multifaceted issue. The NLC must critically evaluate its position, recognizing that effective labor advocacy involves collaboration, dialogue, and a commitment to reforming existing laws for the benefit of all. Rather than waging a dispute based on political posturing, stakeholders should unite in the pursuit of a healthier labor environment that respects both workers’ rights and the economic imperatives of the nation. By doing so, they can transform the narrative from one of contention to a shared vision for progress, ensuring that the interests of Nigerian workers are met with both compassion and pragmatism. 

* James Bwala, PhD, writes from Abuja.

The NLC vs. Shettima: A Misplaced Blame Game in Labor Rights

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VP Kashim Shettima: In President Tinubu’s words, “Competent, Capable, Reliable, and Able.”

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Vice President, Kashim Shettima

VP Kashim Shettima: In President Tinubu’s words, “Competent, Capable, Reliable, and Able.”

By: Dr. James Bwala

In the contemporary landscape of Nigerian politics, the choice of leadership partners has become a critical discussion point, especially in light of the recent election that brought President Bola Ahmed Tinubu into office. When asked about his selection of Kashim Shettima as vice president, Tinubu articulated four words: competent, capable, reliable, and able. These descriptors not only reflect Shettima’s professional credentials but also signify a deliberate strategy aimed at revitalizing the hope of Nigerians for effective governance. Emphasizing these qualities offers a compelling argument in favor of Shettima’s appointment while countering any skepticism stemming from opposition narratives.

To begin with, the term “competent” underscores the necessity of skill and expertise in governance. Shettima’s track record as the former governor of Borno State is a noteworthy testament to his competence. He served during a period when the state faced severe challenges, particularly due to the Boko Haram insurgency. His ability to implement policies that fostered socio-economic development amidst chaos illustrates not only his technical acumen but also his adeptness in crisis management. This experience is pivotal for Nigeria, a nation grappling with issues ranging from security to economic recession. Competence in leadership ensures that policies are not merely theoretical constructs but actionable strategies tailored to address the nuances of Nigeria’s complex societal fabric.

Shettima’s capability extends beyond mere professional qualifications; it encompasses a unique blend of vision and pragmatism. The socio-political context of Nigeria is fraught with multifaceted challenges that require innovative yet realistic solutions. Shettima has shown an understanding of this intricate balance through various initiatives he spearheaded as governor. His administration focused on infrastructural development, education, and health care—all essential pillars for national growth. By choosing a partner who demonstrates such capability, Tinubu is not just making a political statement; he is assembling a team prepared to confront Nigeria’s pressing issues with informed solutions and strategic planning.

Reliability is another crucial aspect that Tinubu highlights in describing Shettima. In politics, reliability is often synonymous with trustworthiness and consistency. Shettima’s tenure in public service has been characterized by accountability and transparency, traits that are increasingly vital in a political arena often marred by corruption and scandals. For the Nigerian populace to invest their hopes in a new administration, they must feel assured that their leaders are dependable. Shettima’s history of fulfilling promises and maintaining integrity throughout his career establishes him as a figure of reliability—a necessary trait in a vice president who is often required to step into the president’s shoes.

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The word “able” encapsulates the essence of readiness and capability to perform in high-pressure environments. An able vice president must not only support the president but also be prepared to take the helm in case of unforeseen circumstances. Shettima’s diverse experiences, encompassing governance, public policy, and even crisis intervention, equip him to adapt and respond aptly to any situation. This versatility is paramount as Nigeria undergoes transformations that demand agile responses from its leadership. The pandemic, economic downturns, and security crises present scenarios where an able leader can make significant differences in outcomes.

Critics may argue that Shettima’s background, particularly his association with the All Progressives Congress (APC) and the political turmoil in Borno State, tarnishes his reputation. However, such assertions fail to acknowledge the broader context of his accomplishments and the essential qualities that define his leadership. Political affiliations should not overshadow individual merit. Shettima’s resume includes innovative approaches to governance that have garnered both regional and national recognition, proving that his capabilities extend beyond partisan lines.

Amidst opposition claims, it is crucial to recognize that discourse surrounding leadership choices often reflects broader political machinations rather than genuine concerns for national welfare. The framing of Shettima as someone unfit for the vice presidency serves more to galvanize opposition factions than to serve the interests of the Nigerian people. The essence of democracy lies in constructive dialogue and debate, yet dismissive rhetoric without substantial evidence is counterproductive. As citizens engage with political narratives, it is vital to discern between legitimate criticisms and those motivated by the desire to undermine progress. We have seen that in those coming on air to push it from a myopic mind. 

For those still talking as we look towards the 2027 general elections, it becomes essential to reiterate that the terms “competence,” “capability,” “reliability,” and “ability” are not mere buzzwords—they are the very foundation upon which effective governance rests. Shettima embodies these attributes, positioning him as an invaluable partner in Tinubu’s vision for a renewed hope for Nigeria. The country faces numerous challenges, and only through a collaborative and well-equipped leadership can Nigeria navigate its path toward prosperity.

As citizens, it is incumbent upon us to critically assess our leaders and their choices, demanding accountability while remaining vigilant against unfounded allegations that seek to derail progress. By focusing on tangible results and the attributes that make effective leaders, we can foster a political culture that values competence and integrity over opportunism. The clarion call for partnership, led by Tinubu and Shettima, emphasizes the notion that effective governance requires teamwork, resilience, and a steadfast commitment to the people of Nigeria. In this shared journey, every Nigerian has a role to play in holding their leaders accountable, ensuring that hope translates not merely into rhetoric but into real, actionable change that uplifts the nation as a whole. 

* James Bwala, Ph.D., writes from Abuja. 

VP Kashim Shettima: In President Tinubu’s words, “Competent, Capable, Reliable, and Able.”

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