Politics
El-Rufai: A calculated yet potentially ineffectual strategy to challenge Tinubu and Shettima’s re-election bid in 2027.
El-Rufai: A calculated yet potentially ineffectual strategy to challenge Tinubu and Shettima’s re-election bid in 2027.
By: Dr. James Bwala
The recent political maneuver by former governor of Kaduna State, Malam Nasir El-Rufai, left many political observers laughing. El-Rufai remains a new clown in the political arena since his rejection as a minister from Kaduna State under the Tinubu administration. El-Rufai’s defection to the Social Democratic Party (SDP) represents a calculated yet potentially ineffectual strategy to challenge President Bola Tinubu and Vice President Kashim Shettima’s 2027 reelection bid. El-Rufai’s move, characterized by claims of ideological divergence from the APC, appears more rooted in personal political ambitions than substantive systemic transformation, which he continually hopes Nigerians believe.
Critical analysis suggests that El-Rufai’s defection is symptomatic of intra-elite power reconfiguration rather than a genuine oppositional movement. The strategic repositioning reflects deeper fractures within Nigeria’s political landscape, where elite negotiations supersede meaningful democratic representation. While El-Rufai attempts to mobilize opposition figures like Peter Obi and Atiku Abubakar, the fundamental power structures remain remarkably unchanged.
Ultimately, the proposed alliance faces significant challenges. The fragmentation of opposition forces, combined with the APC’s entrenched political machinery, renders El-Rufai’s efforts potentially futile. His defection might be interpreted as a symbolic gesture rather than a substantive challenge to the incumbent administration, highlighting the persistent limitations of Nigeria’s contemporary political dynamics. He has been seen moving from one big political figure to another, including going to the home of the former president in an attempt to give credence to his moves, yet he could not clean up the traces of his aging and diminishing relevance in the circle of politics. Despite El-Rufai’s efforts, the entrenched political dynamics and the lack of a cohesive ideological framework within the opposition diminish the likelihood of any substantial electoral upset in 2027.
The lack of a unified vision and coherent policy proposals among these opposition figures only exacerbates their inability to present a credible alternative to the electorate. Given the historical context of electoral politics in Nigeria, the absence of a cohesive opposition strategy further compounds the challenge of altering the status quo, rendering El-Rufai’s defection more an act of political theater than a catalyst for genuine change. Moreover, the entrenched interests and loyalties within the APC continue to present formidable barriers to any meaningful opposition realignment.
The political landscape appears to be more about individual ambitions and less about a unified front capable of mounting a serious challenge to the incumbent powers. This scenario underscores the cyclical nature of political realignments in Nigeria, where shifts often reflect personal ambitions rather than a genuine ideological departure from established norms. While El-Rufai’s attempts to forge alliances with other opposition figures such as Peter Obi, Atiku Abubakar, and Rabiu Kwankwaso signal a desire to create a formidable coalition, the reality remains that such alliances often crumble under the weight of competing interests and personal ambitions, leaving the electorate disillusioned with yet another cycle of political theatrics. Moreover, the historical pattern of political defections in Nigeria suggests that such moves are often perceived as mere strategic repositioning rather than genuine ideological shifts.
Despite the theatrical nature of these political maneuvers, the entrenched power dynamics and loyalty networks within Nigeria’s political landscape make it exceedingly difficult for any new coalition, no matter how strategically crafted, to truly upend the status quo. While El-Rufai’s intentions may appear bold, they are unlikely to disrupt the deeply entrenched political machinery that has long favored incumbents like Tinubu and Shettima.
Despite these efforts, the pervasive influence of existing political structures suggests that any such coalition is more likely to fracture under pressure rather than mount a successful challenge. Given the entrenched interests and historical voting patterns, it appears unlikely that such a coalition could effectively disrupt the established political dominance of Tinubu and Shettima in the upcoming election. This skepticism is further compounded by the perception that El-Rufai’s defection and subsequent coalition-building efforts are more about personal political survival than a genuine commitment to transformative change. Despite the apparent allure of a united front, the reality remains that these alliances often falter under the weight of conflicting agendas and entrenched political loyalties. Moreover, the historical precedent of political realignments in Nigeria often results in temporary alliances that lack the cohesion necessary to present a formidable challenge to established power structures.
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The skepticism surrounding El-Rufai’s defection is echoed by the Nigerian Presidency and APC, who dismiss his move as a futile endeavor motivated by personal ambition rather than a genuine ideological shift. Indeed, El-Rufai’s maneuver is less about ideological realignment and more a reconfiguration of elite power dynamics within the ruling class. As observed by many political analysts, the political landscape remains largely unchanged, with the same elite power dynamics at play, suggesting that any perceived threat from El-Rufai’s move is unlikely to materialize into a significant challenge.
This skepticism is further reinforced by the broader historical context of Nigerian politics, where similar attempts to consolidate opposition forces have often unraveled due to internal dissent and the prioritization of individual ambitions over collective goals. Additionally, the inherent volatility of such coalitions, often marred by a lack of unified vision and the dominance of competing interests, further diminishes their potential to unseat entrenched incumbents. Historical patterns also suggest that such coalitions often struggle to sustain momentum and coherence, especially when faced with the entrenched influence of incumbents like Tinubu and Vice President Kashim Shettima.
Given this context, El-Rufai’s efforts to rally opposition figures like Peter Obi and others around the SDP banner might appear ambitious, but without a cohesive strategy or compelling ideological narrative, such alliances are prone to fragmentation and ultimately ineffectual in altering the prevailing status quo.
The entrenched political machinery supporting President Tinubu and Vice President Kashim Shettima possesses significant resources and influence, making it a formidable barrier for any nascent coalition lacking internal solidarity and a resonant national platform. Despite these strategic maneuvers, the historical precedent and current political landscape suggest that El-Rufai’s efforts may ultimately falter against the deeply entrenched systems supporting Tinubu and Shettima.
The historical resilience of incumbent structures in Nigerian politics, characterized by their adept patronage networks and control over vital state apparatuses, presents another significant challenge for any opposition coalition seeking to disrupt the status quo. Without a clear ideological foundation and a unified agenda that resonates with the broader electorate, such attempts are often perceived as mere political repositioning rather than genuine efforts to instigate meaningful change. In 2027, President Tinubu and Vice President Kashim Shettima will take the oath again for the second time, and El-Rufai will still have no political credibility to make a difference in Nigeria’s political circle.
* James Bwala, PhD, writes from Abuja.
El-Rufai: A calculated yet potentially ineffectual strategy to challenge Tinubu and Shettima’s re-election bid in 2027.
Politics
Kashim Shettima: Hate him, like him, the vice president is a child of necessity holding the pillars of APC together for greater glory in 2027.
Kashim Shettima: Hate him, like him, the vice president is a child of necessity holding the pillars of APC together for greater glory in 2027.
By: Dr. James Bwala
Kashim Shettima, Nigeria’s Vice President, embodies a paradoxical figure within the All Progressives Congress (APC) as the 2027 elections approach. His tenure has been met with contrasting sentiments: while some vehemently oppose him, others staunchly support his leadership. The complexities surrounding his political standing arise from internal party divisions and regional dynamics that significantly influence APC’s cohesion. Notably, certain elements pushing for Shettima’s replacement underscore some of the challenges Shettima faces as a true pillar standing with President Bola Ahmed Tinubu.
As advocates for Shettima, we shall continue to emphasize his indispensable role in maintaining party unity and stability. His governance during Borno State’s insurgency crisis and subsequent contributions to national peace and economic empowerment have garnered significant regional backing. This support is crucial as the APC grapples with factionalism that threatens its electoral prospects.
Ultimately, Shettima represents a “child of necessity” holding together fragile pillars within the APC. Despite controversies and opposition, he remains pivotal for consolidating northern support essential for Tinubu’s re-election bid in 2027. The party’s future cohesion may well depend on reconciling divergent interests around this contentious yet unifying figure.
The Vice President has emerged as a significant figure in Nigerian politics, often regarded as a prophetic voice advocating for unity and progress. His leadership style embodies resilience and foresight, qualities that position him as a steadfast figure likely to maintain influence until at least 2031. This perception stems from his consistent emphasis on national cohesion and socio-economic development, which resonates deeply across diverse communities.
Shettima’s strategic engagement with both grassroots movements and political elites underscores his potential to remain a pivotal actor in Nigeria’s political landscape. His advocacy transcends mere rhetoric; it reflects a commitment to transformative policies aimed at fostering sustainable growth. Such attributes reinforce the belief that his voice will continue to shape discourse well into the next decade.
Vice President Kashim Shettima exemplifies a prophetic leadership model grounded in vision and perseverance. His enduring relevance is not merely speculative but anchored in tangible contributions toward national progress. As Nigeria navigates complex challenges ahead, Shettima’s role as a voice of prophecy remains crucial for guiding collective aspirations through 2031.
The controversy surrounding the potential replacement of Vice President Kashim Shettima in the 2027 presidential race has been a focal point of political discourse within Nigeria’s ruling party, the APC. Notably, those advocating for Shettima’s substitution are often identified as opponents of President Tinubu, suggesting that attempts to displace the vice president are politically motivated rather than grounded in governance concerns. This dynamic underscores how internal party disputes frequently manifest as broader conflicts involving key political figures.
Despite mounting speculation and unrest within APC ranks—highlighted by violent reactions at a North-East stakeholders’ meeting—the party leadership has consistently reaffirmed its commitment to the Tinubu-Shettima ticket. Senior officials have denounced rumors of friction or plans to replace Shettima as baseless and detrimental to party unity. These statements emphasize that such rumors often arise from misunderstandings or deliberate attempts to destabilize the administration’s cohesion.
It is, therefore, evident that resistance against President Tinubu correlates with efforts to undermine Vice President Shettima’s position. The official discourse from APC leadership portrays these efforts as distractions fueled by political adversaries rather than genuine policy disagreements. Maintaining unity around the current ticket appears crucial for preserving stability within both the party and Nigeria’s broader political landscape.
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It is high time, therefore, for President Bola Ahmed Tinubu to recognize the intricate dynamics within his party and government, particularly the emerging coalition of oppositions that could challenge his leadership ahead of the 2027 elections. Despite the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) endorsing Tinubu for a second term, underlying tensions and factionalism within the party merit serious attention. The president’s reforms have elicited mixed reactions, with criticisms regarding economic challenges and insecurity fueling dissent among some APC members.
Today, opposition parties such as the African Democratic Congress (ADC) have actively accused Tinubu’s administration of efforts to destabilize their unity while simultaneously consolidating themselves into a formidable coalition aimed at political transformation. This evolving political landscape necessitates that President Tinubu reaffirm his grip on power by addressing internal fractures decisively. Failure to do so may embolden these coalitions and undermine his prospects in 2027.
As coalition dynamics evolve within the African Democratic Congress (ADC), the role of Vice President Kashim Shettima remains central to the All Progressives Congress’s (APC) prospects for success in the 2027 elections. Despite internal contestations and factional disputes, Shettima’s political influence, particularly in Northern Nigeria, positions him as a pivotal figure whose endorsement could consolidate regional support crucial for APC’s electoral strategy. The Northeast bloc’s endorsement of Shettima alongside President Tinubu underscores his significance despite dissent from some party officials.
Official statements from the presidency have sought to quell rumors about Shettima’s potential exclusion from the 2027 ticket, emphasizing that final decisions will be made post-APC convention and dismissing narratives of discord between Tinubu and Shettima. This institutional backing reinforces Shettima’s status as a key player within APC. In sum, while ADC coalitions are still establishing their footing ahead of 2027, VP Kashim Shettima’s political capital remains a cornerstone for APC’s electoral viability.
* James Bwala, PhD, writes from Abuja.
Kashim Shettima: Hate him, like him, the vice president is a child of necessity holding the pillars of APC together for greater glory in 2027.
2027: Coalition only way to send APC packing from Gombe, Nigeria- Group
Alliance for Good Governance, a political group comprising 108 other groups within the state has declared support for opposition parties’ move to unseat the All Progressives Congress (APC)-led government in the state and country.
Hon. Ahmed Usman Haruna, convener of the meeting and Co-ordinator of the Group while speaking during their meeting in Gombe on Tuesday said it had become imperative for political stakeholders to unite for victory in 2027.
Haruna said that the only way to defeat APC in 2027 in the state and country was to unite beyond political differences using a coalition that provide a platform for all well-meaning Nigerians to contribute their efforts towards sending APC out of government.
He said that the APC-led government had failed on its promise to deliver a better Nigeria as majority of citizens had been impoverished by their harsh economic policies and programmes.
The coordinator added that since the coalition was working towards bringing good governance to Nigeria, “we are fully in support of the coalition and we have over 108 groups here and we are going to mobilise more to end the pain-inflicting rule of APC in Gombe State and Nigeria.
“We are here to declare our support for the way out that we are seeing on ground through the movement for the coalition in Nigeria. Of course coalition is the way out.
“If APC is in government, then the only thing that we need is an alternative political party that will get them out from office”, he said.
Haruna urged stakeholders to create more awareness in their communities towards boosting political awareness and participation ahead of the 2027 general elections.
2027: Coalition only way to send APC packing from Gombe, Nigeria- Group
Politics
VP Kashim Shettima: A reflection of the interconnectedness between fate and personal attributes
VP Kashim Shettima: A reflection of the interconnectedness between fate and personal attributes
By: Dr. James Bwala
Vice President Kashim Shettima’s political trajectory exemplifies the intricate relationship between fate and personal attributes, highlighting how individual qualities can intersect with circumstantial forces to shape leadership outcomes. While fate may position an individual within certain historical or social contexts, it is Shettima’s personal attributes—such as resilience, rhetorical skill, and strategic vision—that have enabled him to navigate Nigeria’s complex political landscape effectively. His public discourse often underscores courage and transformative leadership, which not only reflect his innate qualities but also respond adaptively to the demands of his environment.
Shettima’s role as vice president underlines a dynamic interplay where destiny provides opportunities that are actualized through character and action. His rhetoric aligns with broader national narratives about change and legacy, suggesting that while fate may offer a stage, it is personal agency that directs the performance. This synthesis between predetermined circumstances and individual capability illustrates how leaders like Shettima embody both historical contingency and self-determination in their public roles.
In this way, Shettima’s journey not only reflects personal triumph over the vicissitudes of fate but also serves as a testament to the profound impact of character-driven leadership on national development. In essence, Shettima’s leadership journey illustrates how the interplay between fate and personal attributes can transcend individual success to foster collective progress within a nation. This intricate balance between destiny and personal attributes not only shapes Shettima’s political narrative but also inspires a broader discourse on leadership in Africa, where history and individual agency frequently converge to redefine societal trajectories.
This narrative not only resonates deeply within the context of Nigeria’s evolving political landscape but also offers a blueprint for emerging leaders across the continent, reinforcing the idea that true progress is born from the synergy between predetermined paths and deliberate, character-driven choices. By examining Shettima’s career, one can discern how his personal attributes—resilience, strategic foresight, and an unwavering commitment to public service—have consistently aligned with historical moments of opportunity.
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This alignment is further evidenced by Shettima’s strategic initiatives, which often capitalize on pivotal historical junctures to advance national interests and enhance socio-economic stability. Shettima’s ability to navigate complex political landscapes with a blend of prudence and vision underscores the essential role of adaptive leadership in times of national transformation. His journey illustrates how personal characteristics can serve as both a catalyst and a compass, guiding individuals through the intricate dance of destiny and determination to achieve impactful leadership outcomes.
As Shettima’s narrative unfolds, it becomes evident that his personal journey is a testament to how intrinsic qualities can steer one towards pivotal roles in shaping a nation’s trajectory. In reflecting on Shettima’s career, one observes how his intrinsic resilience and strategic foresight have intertwined with the broader currents of fate to place him at the forefront of national leadership. This interplay between personal attributes and destiny not only underscores Shettima’s rise but also highlights the broader narrative of leadership in contexts marked by complexity and change.
This dynamic interaction between individual traits and the unfolding of fate is not only critical in understanding Shettima’s ascent but also serves as a broader commentary on leadership within complex political environments. Shettima’s leadership journey, as articulated in his rhetoric, underscores the transformative power of individual courage and strategic vision in navigating the complexities of national governance. Moreover, his rhetoric often reflects the deep-seated belief that courage and strategic vision are indispensable in crafting a legacy that resonates with both contemporary and future generations.
Kashim Shettima’s speeches often encapsulate the notion that leadership is not merely a position of power but a profound responsibility to align personal strengths with the nation’s aspirations, ultimately crafting a narrative that resonates with both the present and posterity. Through his speeches, Shettima consistently emphasizes the importance of aligning personal integrity with national goals, thereby reinforcing the notion that effective leadership is deeply rooted in a harmonious blend of fate and personal conviction. In doing so, he not only embodies the essence of leadership but also illustrates how personal conviction can be a guiding force in the intricate dance between destiny and self-determination. This intricate interplay between personal determination and the larger forces of destiny is vividly captured in Shettima’s portrayal of President Tinubu’s leadership, where bold economic reforms are seen as pivotal moments that redefine national identity.
Shettima’s depiction of Tinubu’s leadership serves as a testament to the belief that the convergence of personal attributes and fate can indeed propel a nation towards a redefined future, where courageous decisions become the cornerstone of historical transformation. Shettima’s perspective underscores the belief that the fusion of personal attributes such as courage and strategic foresight with the inexorable pull of fate can lead to transformative change. By weaving his narrative with elements of courage and strategic foresight, Shettima not only highlights the transformative potential inherent in the convergence of personal attributes and fate but also inspires a collective vision for progress that transcends individual ambitions.
Indeed, Shettima’s narrative finds resonance in the broader context of leadership, where the alignment of individual virtues with the nation’s destiny becomes a catalyst for enduring change. In essence, Shettima’s articulation of Tinubu’s leadership is not merely a reflection of personal admiration but rather an acknowledgment of the profound impact that decisive leadership can have on the trajectory of a nation.
* James Bwala, PhD, writes from Abuja.
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