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How misdiagnosis, narratives are fuelling Nigeria’s banditry escalation

Published

2 months ago

January 12, 2026

Ochuwa Ibrahim

How misdiagnosis, narratives are fuelling Nigeria’s banditry escalation

By: Zagazola Makama

Nigeria’s banditry crisis is no longer escalating simply because armed groups are growing bolder. It is escalating because the country continues to misdiagnose the threat, apply blunt policy tools to differentiated actors, and unintentionally feed a violent criminal economy through ransom payments, politicised narratives and delayed state consolidation.

Across the North-West and parts of the North-Central, banditry has evolved beyond rural violence into a structured, profit-driven security threat. Yet public debate remains trapped between emotional appeals for dialogue and absolutist calls for force, leaving little room for the strategic clarity required to halt the violence.

At the heart of the escalation is money. Banditry today survives on a diversified revenue architecture that includes ransom payments, cattle rustling, illegal mining, arms trafficking, extortion levies on farming and mining communities, and collaboration with transnational criminal networks. Each successful kidnapping or “peace levy” reinforces the viability of violence as a business model.

Data released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) in December 2024 underlined the scale of this economy with the North-West accounting for the highest number of kidnap incidents and victims.

Zagazola argue that as long as communities remain unprotected and ransom payments continue as a survival strategy, banditry will regenerate faster than military operations can suppress it. This is not ideology-driven violence at its core; it is cash-flow-driven criminality as every payment funds the next attack.

Another accelerant is Nigeria’s persistent failure to differentiate categories of armed actors. Security assessments increasingly point to at least two distinct groups operating within the banditry ecosystem.

The first consists of low-level, defensive armed actors, often rural residents who acquired weapons after suffering attacks and whose violence is reactive rather than predatory. The second group comprises entrenched, profit-driven bandit networks responsible for mass kidnappings, village destruction, sexual violence, arms trafficking and territorial control.

Yet public discourse and policy responses frequently collapse these actors into a single category of “bandits,” resulting in indiscriminate dialogue offers, blanket amnesty rhetoric or, conversely, broad-brush security operations that alienate communities. This conceptual error, allows high-value criminal leaders to masquerade as aggrieved actors while exploiting negotiations to buy time, regroup and rearm.

Dialogue has repeatedly been applied in contexts where the state lacks coercive leverage. Experiences in Zamfara, Katsina, Sokoto and Kaduna states and parts of the North-West show a consistent pattern: temporary reductions in violence following peace deals, followed by rapid relapse and escalation. Officials who participated in the dialogue have openly acknowledged that many agreements collapsed within months.

The negotiations conducted without sustained military pressure, intelligence dominance and post-agreement enforcement mechanisms merely incentivise armed groups to pause tactically. When criminals negotiate from a position of strength, dialogue becomes appeasement.

Perhaps the most dangerous accelerant is the ethnicisation of banditry. Although criminal gangs include actors of identifiable ethnic backgrounds, the violence itself is not driven by ethnic grievance. Nonetheless, selective media framing and political rhetoric like what had been witnessed in Plateau have increasingly cast banditry through identity lenses, particularly in farmer–herder contexts.

This framing obscures the criminal logic of the violence and deepens mistrust between communities that are themselves victims. In Nigeria today, the fulani herdsmen and pastoralists communities are being weaponized and stereotyped as bandits. This dangerous persecution has strengthens bandit recruitment narratives, allowing criminal leaders to cloak profit-driven violence in claims of ethnic persecution or genocide.

Historical records and sociological studies show that Fulani, Hausa, Tiv, Berom and other communities coexisted for decades through complementary economic systems. The breakdown of this coexistence has been exploited by armed groups seeking cover, recruits and informants. Security agencies possess significantly more intelligence on bandit networks than is visible in public debate. Lawful interceptions, human intelligence and post-operation assessments routinely reveal financial motives, supply routes and internal hierarchies within armed groups.

However, public advocacy for dialogue often relies on forest-level engagements that security officials describe as “theatrical performances” by bandits choreographed grievances designed to elicit sympathy and concessions. The disconnect between classified intelligence and public narratives has allowed emotionally compelling but strategically flawed arguments to dominate national discourse.

Another escalation factor is the emerging convergence between bandit networks and ideological terrorist groups as Nigeria’s internal security landscape firmly indicates that what has long been treated as banditry especially in the North-West and parts of North-Central Nigeria has evolved into a hybrid jihadist campaign, driven by Boko Haram (JAS faction) and reinforced by JNIM elements operating from Sahelian-linked forest sanctuaries. Shared arms supply chains, training exchanges and joint operations could transform banditry from criminal violence into full-spectrum insurgency if unchecked. Nigeria’s past experience with Boko Haram demonstrates the cost of dismissing such convergence as isolated or exaggerated.

Military operations have succeeded in degrading bandit camps in several corridors, but the absence of immediate governance has allowed violence to recycle. Clearing operations not followed by permanent security presence, functional courts, reopened schools, healthcare and markets leave vacuums that criminal actors quickly refill. Bandits and other criminals thrive where state authority is episodic rather than continuous. Security victories without governance consolidation merely displace violence spatially and temporally.

Therefore, Nigeria must urgently reset its approach by formally adopting threat differentiation, choking financial lifelines, regulating community defence structures, and ensuring intelligence-led, precise enforcement against high-risk criminal networks. Dialogue, they say, must be selective, conditional and embedded within formal disarmament and reintegration frameworks not deployed as a moral reflex.

Above all, the state must reclaim narrative control by defining banditry clearly as organised criminal violence, not a sociological misunderstanding. As one senior official put it, “Banditry escalates where sentiment overrides strategy. The cure begins with honesty.”

Without that honesty, Nigeria risks allowing a violent criminal economy to entrench itself deeper into the country’s security architecture at a cost measured not just in money, but in lives, legitimacy and national cohesion.

How misdiagnosis, narratives are fuelling Nigeria’s banditry escalation

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India Strengthens Youth Ties with Nigeria Through Essay Competition Awards

Published

1 hour ago

March 14, 2026

Ochuwa Ibrahim

India Strengthens Youth Ties with Nigeria Through Essay Competition Awards

By: Michael Mike

The High Commission of India in Nigeria has honoured Nigerian winners of an essay competition organised under its newly introduced “Youth Junction” initiative, a programme designed to deepen youth engagement and strengthen people-to-people relations between India and Nigeria.

The prize distribution ceremony which took place at the High Commission in Abuja, drew participation from Nigerian and Indian youths who gathered to celebrate academic excellence, creativity and the growing partnership between the two nations.

Speaking at the event, India’s High Commissioner to Nigeria, Abhishek Singh, said the Youth Junction initiative was created to provide a dynamic platform for young people in both countries to interact, share ideas and explore collaborative opportunities.

He explained that the programme seeks to inspire creativity, learning and innovation among youth while also promoting cultural understanding and strengthening the longstanding diplomatic relationship between the two countries.

Singh noted that young people remain central to the future of bilateral cooperation, stressing that platforms such as Youth Junction would encourage meaningful exchanges and partnerships in areas of shared interest.

The essay competition, which formed part of the initiative, was launched on February 6, 2026 with the theme “Strength of India–Nigeria Bilateral Relationship.” The contest invited Nigerian students to reflect on the evolving partnership between the two countries and highlight opportunities for deeper cooperation.

A representative of Nigeria’s Minister of Youth Development, Ayodele Olawande, commended the initiative, describing it as an important platform for strengthening bilateral relations through youth-driven engagement.

The representative noted that by bringing young Nigerians and Indians together, the initiative would encourage collaboration in areas such as technology, entrepreneurship, cultural exchange and digital skills development.

Participants at the event expressed optimism that sustained youth-focused programmes would open new avenues for cooperation and mutual understanding between both countries.

The High Commission congratulated the award recipients and reaffirmed its commitment to expanding the Youth Junction initiative as part of broader efforts to deepen the enduring partnership between India and Nigeria.

India Strengthens Youth Ties with Nigeria Through Essay Competition Awards

News

Journalists Health Insurance Gets A Boost with Hundreds Enrolled in Abuja

Published

1 hour ago

March 14, 2026

Ochuwa Ibrahim

Journalists Health Insurance Gets A Boost with Hundreds Enrolled in Abuja

By: Michael Mike

A major push to improve the welfare of journalists gathered momentum in Nigeria’s capital as media leaders and government officials called on philanthropists and public office holders to sponsor health insurance for reporters.

The call came as more than 150 journalists were enrolled in the Federal Capital Territory Health Insurance Scheme during the launch of a healthcare initiative by the Nigeria Union of Journalists (NUJ) FCT Council in Abuja.

The Mandate Secretary of the FCT Health Services and Environment Secretariat, Adedolapo Fasawe, used the occasion to urge philanthropists, political leaders, business executives and religious institutions to support journalists by purchasing health insurance coverage for them.

According to her, journalists play a critical role in society by amplifying the voices of citizens and holding institutions accountable, yet many remain without access to basic healthcare protection.

“My purpose of coming here today is to ask political office holders, religious leaders and individuals who want their voices to be heard to buy health insurance for a journalist,” she said.

The initiative, spearheaded by the Chairman of the NUJ FCT Council, Grace Ike, is aimed at addressing the long-standing welfare concerns of journalists working in the Federal Capital Territory.

Ike described the launch as a historic turning point for the union, noting that it represents the first structured health insurance programme specifically targeted at journalists in the territory.

“Journalists dedicate their lives to informing the public and shaping national conversations, yet their welfare is often overlooked,” she said. “This initiative is about protecting those who work tirelessly to keep society informed.”

She commended the Chairman of the House of Representatives Committee on Information, Akin Rotimi Jr., for supporting the programme and helping initiate the insurance coverage.

She also praised Fasawe for providing 150 free health insurance slots for NUJ members and acknowledged the support of the Permanent Secretary in the FCT Health Secretariat, Babagana Adam, who pledged to sponsor 50 additional journalists in memory of his late brother.

With these contributions, Ike disclosed that about 200 journalists in the FCT have already secured health insurance coverage under the scheme.

Fasawe further announced an additional 50 insurance slots during the event, pushing the coverage to about 65 per cent of NUJ members in the territory. She revealed that about 480 out of the estimated 800 journalists operating in the FCT are now captured under the health insurance programme.

The health official stressed that expanding insurance coverage aligns with the healthcare reforms being pursued by the FCT Administration under the Minister of the Federal Capital Territory, Nyesom Wike.

She noted that the administration has adopted a zero-tolerance policy toward maternal mortality and has expanded access to free antenatal care and delivery services for vulnerable pregnant women across primary healthcare centres in the FCT.

Also speaking, the National President of the NUJ, Alhassan Yahya, said the initiative was a critical intervention given the extremely low health insurance coverage among journalists nationwide.

He revealed that studies show less than one per cent of Nigerian journalists currently have any form of health insurance, leaving many vulnerable to high out-of-pocket medical expenses.

The programme, unveiled during the NUJ FCT Congress attended by more than 450 members, was widely welcomed by journalists who described it as a long-awaited step toward improving the welfare and security of media professionals in the nation’s capital.

Stakeholders at the event expressed optimism that sustained support from government agencies, private organisations and philanthropists would help extend health insurance coverage to all journalists in the Federal Capital Territory.

Journalists Health Insurance Gets A Boost with Hundreds Enrolled in Abuja

News

Before Calling for DSS Disbandment, Look at the Results

Published

1 hour ago

March 14, 2026

Ochuwa Ibrahim

Before Calling for DSS Disbandment, Look at the Results

By: Olumide Bajulaiye

At a time when Nigeria continues to confront terrorism, kidnapping, and organized crime, calls for the disbandment of the Department of State Services (DSS) are not only misplaced but dangerously dismissive of the agency’s recent achievements.

Under the leadership of Oluwatosin Ajayi, the DSS has demonstrated renewed operational focus and intelligence capability in confronting some of the country’s most pressing security threats. Rather than dismantling the agency, the conversation should focus on strengthening and supporting the institution that quietly works behind the scenes to protect Nigerians.

Across the North-East, North-West, and the Middle Belt, the DSS has intensified intelligence-driven operations that have disrupted terror cells and prevented numerous kidnapping plots. These are not abstract claims; they are measurable results that have directly contributed to saving lives and stabilizing communities.

One of the most significant achievements has been the successful prosecution and conviction of key terrorist figures linked to groups such as Ansaru and commanders associated with Islamic State West Africa Province (ISWAP). Convictions of this magnitude signal not only effective intelligence gathering but also coordination with the justice system to ensure that perpetrators face the full weight of the law.

The DSS has also expanded its operational reach beyond traditional conflict zones. Coordinated operations in Abuja, as well as in Nasarawa State, Ebonyi State, and Akwa Ibom State, have led to the arrest of arms couriers and logistics suppliers for terrorist groups. In some cases, even women acting as logistical coordinators for terror networks were apprehended, demonstrating the depth of the agency’s intelligence penetration.

Perhaps one of the most striking operations occurred in Asaba, where DSS operatives intercepted a major arms smuggling network. The operation led to the recovery of more than 50 AK-47 rifles, rocket-propelled grenades (RPGs), grenades, and over 3,000 rounds of ammunition—an arsenal that could have fueled devastating attacks across the country.

The agency’s efforts have also translated into lifesaving rescue missions. In Kaduna State, coordinated DSS operations resulted in the rescue of 79 kidnapped victims. Similar rescue missions have taken place in Niger State, Kebbi State, and Katsina State, returning victims to their families and disrupting the financial networks that sustain kidnapping gangs.

Importantly, these are only the operations that reach the public domain. Intelligence agencies worldwide operate largely in secrecy, meaning many successful interventions remain undisclosed to protect ongoing investigations and operational methods.

This reality makes sweeping criticisms of the DSS particularly unfair. Security agencies should indeed be held accountable, but such scrutiny must be balanced with recognition of genuine accomplishments. Dismissing the agency outright ignores the complex and often dangerous work carried out daily by its officers.

Nigeria’s security challenges require strong institutions, professional leadership, and sustained intelligence operations. Under Ajayi’s leadership, the DSS appears to be repositioning itself toward that goal.

Rather than calling for its disbandment, Nigerians should demand continued reforms, improved oversight, and greater resources to ensure the DSS remains effective in safeguarding national security.

In the fight against terrorism and organized crime, weakening one of the country’s primary intelligence institutions would only serve the enemies of the state—not the Nigerian people.

Olumide Bajulaiye is the Publisher, Daily Dispatch Newspaper, also a media consultant

Before Calling for DSS Disbandment, Look at the Results