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Nigeria Needs Foresight, Not Firefighting: Rethinking Crisis Leadership for a Fragile Future

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Nigeria Needs Foresight, Not Firefighting: Rethinking Crisis Leadership for a Fragile Future

By Maureen Okpe

As Nigeria battles overlapping crises—from spiralling insecurity and economic instability to climate shocks and growing social unrest—the question is no longer whether we need change, but how urgently we need leaders who can think beyond tomorrow’s headlines. A recent initiative by the National Institute for Policy and Strategic Studies (NIPSS), in partnership with Peace Building Development Consult (PBDC), provides a bold and timely answer: foresight.

Nigeria has been stuck in a cycle of crisis and reaction for too long, responding to emergencies with short-term patches rather than long-term vision. But the tide may be turning. A three-day senior leadership course on “Strategic Anticipation and Crisis Management,” hosted in Abuja, brought together over 70 senior leaders across sectors to explore a new leadership doctrine grounded in systems thinking, scenario planning, and proactive governance.

Dr. Garba Malumfashi of NIPSS set the tone: “Policymakers need foresight more than ever. We must manage and anticipate crises in this volatile, uncertain, complex, and ambiguous world.” This was not just another policy seminar. It was a call to overhaul Nigeria’s approach to leadership itself.

From Blind Spots to Scenario Thinking

The course delivered a clear message: crises are rarely sudden—they brew in ignored data, weak signals, and poor coordination. Anthony Kila, Director at the Commonwealth Institute, led participants through scenario planning exercises and foresight models. “The world is not waiting for Nigeria to catch up,” he said, urging leaders to stop reacting and start preparing.

He laid out seven pillars of resilient leadership, from strategic networking to performance-based thinking. Foresight, he argued, is not prediction but preparation. Scenario tools like PESTEL and SWOT are essential—not optional—for a country that wishes to survive and thrive in a rapidly changing global system.

Bridging Policy and Practice

What stood out most was the emphasis on institutional integration. Foresight cannot succeed as a one-off initiative; it must be embedded into governance, policymaking, and the bureaucracy. Dr. Malumfashi explained how early warning systems, horizon scanning, and the Delphi method can help governments move from crisis management to prevention.

He pointed out that national plans like Vision 2050 must be living documents—flexible enough to adapt to rapid technological, environmental, and geopolitical shifts. His recommendation? Forge alliances between NIPSS, think tanks, and foresight units across MDAs.

Human Security Starts with Information

PBDC’s Executive Director, Kayode Bolaji, made a compelling case for the centrality of risk communication in crisis response. “Crises rarely arrive like bolts from the blue,” he said. “They stem from ignored warnings and poor preparation.”

Citing COVID-19 and Hurricane Maria, Bolaji illustrated how misinformation, fear, and delayed communication exacerbate disaster impacts. He advocated for grassroots simulations, community-based early warning systems, and risk-informed governance. “Access to timely, trusted information is a lifeline,” he declared.

Security Beyond Guns

Nigeria’s security outlook also urgently needs recalibration. Dr. Kabir Adamu of Beacon Security Intelligence argued that guns and boots alone cannot confront today’s hybrid threats—from cyber warfare and climate shocks to pandemics and digital disinformation.

He introduced tools like backcasting, Enterprise Security Risk Management (ESRM), and data-driven forecasting. Foresight, he stressed, must become central to defence planning. Security institutions need interdisciplinary planners, AI integration, and youth engagement to prepare for the probable and the plausible.

Rural Blind Spots and Urban Oversight

Chris Ngwodo of the Office for Strategic Preparedness and Resilience (OSPRE) emphasised that insecurity often festers where development is absent. “Insecurity in Nigeria is predominantly a rural problem,” he said. “Rural abandonment creates a vacuum for conflict.”

He and retired Maj.-Gen. Adeyinka Famadewa echoed the need for decentralised foresight and scenario-based governance training that includes local governments, traditional leaders, and community networks.

Leadership Must Change Course

Prof. Ayo Omotayo, Director-General of NIPSS, closed the training with a sobering call: “Nothing will fall from the sky to solve our problems. It’s time to stop waiting for miracles and start acting.”

He called out policy inconsistency, public cynicism, and a lack of accountability. “Criticise with purpose—to build, not destroy,” he urged. The goal is to see the future and build the systems and leadership cultures that can meet it head-on.

What Comes Next?

Participants like Senator Iroegbu, CEO of CANAG Communications, and Eniola Ekubi of DEPOWA echoed a common sentiment: this was not just another training but a wake-up call. “This course gave me tools to anticipate and lead better,” said Ekubi.
Their reflections drive home a core truth: building national resilience starts with leaders who see further, think deeper, and act sooner.

Key Takeaways and Recommendations

The NIPSS training proves Nigeria can transition from reactive firefighting to strategic foresight—if it has the will. Foresight must be institutionalised as a leadership imperative, not a luxury.

Recommendations include:

•Establish foresight cells in all MDAs to support anticipatory policymaking.

•Integrate security and development policies to tackle the root causes of unrest.

•Include women, youth, civil society, and media in national foresight planning.

•Scale up foresight training at the federal, state, and local government levels.

  • Institutionalise foresight as part of NIPSS’s core leadership development curriculum, with mechanisms for tracking implementation.

The future will not wait for Nigeria to be ready. It is already arriving. Whether we lead or lag depends on our choices today—and the foresight we apply to tomorrow.

Nigeria Needs Foresight, Not Firefighting: Rethinking Crisis Leadership for a Fragile Future

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DICAN to Host Global Summit on Combating Disinformation and Protecting Investment

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DICAN to Host Global Summit on Combating Disinformation and Protecting Investment

By: Michael Mike

The Diplomatic Correspondents Association of Nigeria (DICAN) will convene its second Diplomatic, Security, Trade, and Investment International Conference on May 20, 2026, in Abuja, in a move aimed at tackling the escalating threat of foreign information manipulation and its impact on national security and economic stability.

The summit will focus on Foreign Information Manipulation and Interference (FIMI), a growing form of hybrid warfare that can distort public perception, undermine diplomatic relations, and deter foreign investment. Organisers say the conference will serve as a platform for shaping international strategies to detect, neutralise, and prevent the weaponisation of false information.

DICAN Chairman, Idehai Frederick, explained that the event seeks to “promote collaborative truth across borders, ensuring that misinformation does not destabilise local markets or scare away investors.” He added that building a secure information environment is essential for sustainable trade, investment, and diplomacy.

The summit will bring together a diverse group of stakeholders, including diplomats, intelligence officials, media professionals, regulators, and business leaders, with the aim of strengthening coordination across key sectors. Discussions will cover international standards for countering state-sponsored disinformation, improving early-warning systems for hybrid threats, and reinforcing credible reporting to protect national interests.

Nigeria’s Minister of Foreign Affairs, Yusuf Maitama Tuggar, who serves as DICAN’s Grand Patron, will deliver the keynote address. He will be joined by high-profile facilitators, including the European Union Ambassador to Nigeria and ECOWAS, Gautier Mignot, alongside security experts, regulators, and private sector leaders.

The conference follows the success of DICAN’s inaugural international gathering in July 2025, which attracted representatives from over 60 diplomatic missions, civil society organisations, and academic institutions.

Organisers say the 2026 summit is particularly timely as governments, media, and businesses worldwide face unprecedented challenges from misinformation campaigns, which threaten to disrupt trade, erode trust, and destabilise economies.

By convening leading voices across diplomacy, intelligence, media, and business, DICAN aims to position Nigeria at the forefront of global efforts to safeguard information integrity, protect investment flows, and ensure that the country remains a stable and attractive hub for international commerce.

This event underscores a growing recognition that defending truth in the digital age is not only a matter of public information but a strategic priority for national security and economic growth.

DICAN to Host Global Summit on Combating Disinformation and Protecting Investment

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Troops recover rustled cattle in Riyom, Plateau

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Troops recover rustled cattle in Riyom, Plateau

By: Zagazola Makama

Troops of Operation Safe Haven have recovered rustled cattle in Riyom Local Government Area of Plateau State.

Security sources said the troops of Sector 6, deployed at Makera, responded to intelligence at about 7:20 a.m. on March 16 on the movement of suspected rustled cattle around Tahoos Community.

The troops conducted a search-and-rescue operation in the area and recovered six cattle abandoned by the rustlers, who fled on sighting the troops.

The recovered cattle were subsequently handed over to their rightful owner.

Troops have continued patrols in the area to deter further criminal activities.

Troops recover rustled cattle in Riyom, Plateau

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Nigeria, Sweden Deepen Ties on Trade, Innovation, Regional Stability

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Nigeria, Sweden Deepen Ties on Trade, Innovation, Regional Stability

By: Michael Mike

Nigeria and Sweden have reaffirmed their commitment to strengthening bilateral relations, with renewed focus on trade, innovation, and regional cooperation, as both countries seek to expand mutually beneficial partnerships.

This formed the outcome of a high-level meeting between Nigeria’s Minister of Foreign Affairs, Yusuf Tuggar and Sweden’s Ambassador to Nigeria, Anna Westerholm, held at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs in Abuja.

During the engagement, Ambassador Westerholm expressed Sweden’s appreciation for Nigeria’s hospitality since assuming office in August 2025, describing bilateral relations as cordial and built on strong goodwill. She reaffirmed Sweden’s readiness to deepen cooperation across key sectors of shared interest.

Central to the discussions was the expansion of economic ties, with Sweden identifying trade, investment, and strategic partnerships as priority areas. The envoy highlighted Sweden’s interest in supporting Nigeria’s transition towards a green and digital economy, particularly through collaboration in digital infrastructure, innovation, and technology development.

As a globally recognised innovation-driven economy, Sweden sees significant opportunities to partner with Nigeria in enhancing digital connectivity and strengthening its technological ecosystem.

Beyond technology, both countries explored potential collaboration in the energy sector and the creative industry.

Westerholm pointed to Nigeria’s growing global influence in music—especially Afrobeats—as a gateway for partnerships that could merge Swedish expertise in music production and business models with Nigeria’s vibrant creative economy.

In a move signalling stronger commercial engagement, Sweden recently established a trade office in Lagos, led by a government-appointed Trade Commissioner. The development follows earlier high-level engagements, including a visit by Sweden’s Crown Princess, underscoring Stockholm’s commitment to expanding trade and investment links with Africa’s largest economy.

On the multilateral front, Sweden commended Nigeria’s role as a reliable partner in promoting a rules-based international order, particularly through cooperation at the United Nations and other global platforms.

Regional security and political developments also featured prominently in the talks, with both sides exchanging views on the evolving situation in West Africa. Discussions focused on the Sahel region and the role of Economic Community of West African States in maintaining stability, including its engagement with the Alliance of Sahel States (AES).

Both parties acknowledged Nigeria’s strategic role in driving regional integration and fostering dialogue amid shifting geopolitical dynamics.

In his remarks, Tuggar reiterated Nigeria’s commitment to strengthening democratic institutions and regional cooperation frameworks as key responses to security and governance challenges across West Africa. He emphasised ongoing engagement with ECOWAS member states and regional partners to promote peace, stability, and sustainable solutions in the Sahel and beyond.

The minister also highlighted progress under the ECOWAS Trade Liberalisation Scheme (ETLS), noting that while frameworks for regional economic integration are largely established, increased private sector participation is essential to unlocking its full benefits.

Both countries agreed to sustain high-level consultations and explore new avenues of cooperation to further consolidate their longstanding relationship. As part of ongoing diplomatic engagements, Sweden’s State Secretary is expected to visit Nigeria in the coming days for further discussions.

The renewed partnership signals a shared commitment by Abuja and Stockholm to leverage trade, innovation, and diplomacy in advancing economic growth and regional stability.

Nigeria, Sweden Deepen Ties on Trade, Innovation, Regional Stability

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