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Nigeria Needs Foresight, Not Firefighting: Rethinking Crisis Leadership for a Fragile Future

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Nigeria Needs Foresight, Not Firefighting: Rethinking Crisis Leadership for a Fragile Future

By Maureen Okpe

As Nigeria battles overlapping crises—from spiralling insecurity and economic instability to climate shocks and growing social unrest—the question is no longer whether we need change, but how urgently we need leaders who can think beyond tomorrow’s headlines. A recent initiative by the National Institute for Policy and Strategic Studies (NIPSS), in partnership with Peace Building Development Consult (PBDC), provides a bold and timely answer: foresight.

Nigeria has been stuck in a cycle of crisis and reaction for too long, responding to emergencies with short-term patches rather than long-term vision. But the tide may be turning. A three-day senior leadership course on “Strategic Anticipation and Crisis Management,” hosted in Abuja, brought together over 70 senior leaders across sectors to explore a new leadership doctrine grounded in systems thinking, scenario planning, and proactive governance.

Dr. Garba Malumfashi of NIPSS set the tone: “Policymakers need foresight more than ever. We must manage and anticipate crises in this volatile, uncertain, complex, and ambiguous world.” This was not just another policy seminar. It was a call to overhaul Nigeria’s approach to leadership itself.

From Blind Spots to Scenario Thinking

The course delivered a clear message: crises are rarely sudden—they brew in ignored data, weak signals, and poor coordination. Anthony Kila, Director at the Commonwealth Institute, led participants through scenario planning exercises and foresight models. “The world is not waiting for Nigeria to catch up,” he said, urging leaders to stop reacting and start preparing.

He laid out seven pillars of resilient leadership, from strategic networking to performance-based thinking. Foresight, he argued, is not prediction but preparation. Scenario tools like PESTEL and SWOT are essential—not optional—for a country that wishes to survive and thrive in a rapidly changing global system.

Bridging Policy and Practice

What stood out most was the emphasis on institutional integration. Foresight cannot succeed as a one-off initiative; it must be embedded into governance, policymaking, and the bureaucracy. Dr. Malumfashi explained how early warning systems, horizon scanning, and the Delphi method can help governments move from crisis management to prevention.

He pointed out that national plans like Vision 2050 must be living documents—flexible enough to adapt to rapid technological, environmental, and geopolitical shifts. His recommendation? Forge alliances between NIPSS, think tanks, and foresight units across MDAs.

Human Security Starts with Information

PBDC’s Executive Director, Kayode Bolaji, made a compelling case for the centrality of risk communication in crisis response. “Crises rarely arrive like bolts from the blue,” he said. “They stem from ignored warnings and poor preparation.”

Citing COVID-19 and Hurricane Maria, Bolaji illustrated how misinformation, fear, and delayed communication exacerbate disaster impacts. He advocated for grassroots simulations, community-based early warning systems, and risk-informed governance. “Access to timely, trusted information is a lifeline,” he declared.

Security Beyond Guns

Nigeria’s security outlook also urgently needs recalibration. Dr. Kabir Adamu of Beacon Security Intelligence argued that guns and boots alone cannot confront today’s hybrid threats—from cyber warfare and climate shocks to pandemics and digital disinformation.

He introduced tools like backcasting, Enterprise Security Risk Management (ESRM), and data-driven forecasting. Foresight, he stressed, must become central to defence planning. Security institutions need interdisciplinary planners, AI integration, and youth engagement to prepare for the probable and the plausible.

Rural Blind Spots and Urban Oversight

Chris Ngwodo of the Office for Strategic Preparedness and Resilience (OSPRE) emphasised that insecurity often festers where development is absent. “Insecurity in Nigeria is predominantly a rural problem,” he said. “Rural abandonment creates a vacuum for conflict.”

He and retired Maj.-Gen. Adeyinka Famadewa echoed the need for decentralised foresight and scenario-based governance training that includes local governments, traditional leaders, and community networks.

Leadership Must Change Course

Prof. Ayo Omotayo, Director-General of NIPSS, closed the training with a sobering call: “Nothing will fall from the sky to solve our problems. It’s time to stop waiting for miracles and start acting.”

He called out policy inconsistency, public cynicism, and a lack of accountability. “Criticise with purpose—to build, not destroy,” he urged. The goal is to see the future and build the systems and leadership cultures that can meet it head-on.

What Comes Next?

Participants like Senator Iroegbu, CEO of CANAG Communications, and Eniola Ekubi of DEPOWA echoed a common sentiment: this was not just another training but a wake-up call. “This course gave me tools to anticipate and lead better,” said Ekubi.
Their reflections drive home a core truth: building national resilience starts with leaders who see further, think deeper, and act sooner.

Key Takeaways and Recommendations

The NIPSS training proves Nigeria can transition from reactive firefighting to strategic foresight—if it has the will. Foresight must be institutionalised as a leadership imperative, not a luxury.

Recommendations include:

•Establish foresight cells in all MDAs to support anticipatory policymaking.

•Integrate security and development policies to tackle the root causes of unrest.

•Include women, youth, civil society, and media in national foresight planning.

•Scale up foresight training at the federal, state, and local government levels.

  • Institutionalise foresight as part of NIPSS’s core leadership development curriculum, with mechanisms for tracking implementation.

The future will not wait for Nigeria to be ready. It is already arriving. Whether we lead or lag depends on our choices today—and the foresight we apply to tomorrow.

Nigeria Needs Foresight, Not Firefighting: Rethinking Crisis Leadership for a Fragile Future

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NSCDC Boss Charges Personnel on Professionalism, Integrityin VIP Protection

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NSCDC Boss Charges Personnel on Professionalism, Integrityin VIP Protection

By: Michael Mike

​The Commandant General (CG) of the Nigeria Security and Civil Defence Corps (NSCDC), Prof. Ahmed Audi has issued a stern mandate to officers to uphold the highest standards of professionalism, integrity, and commitment in the protection of Very Important Persons (VIPs).

The CG gave this charge during his keynote address at a three-day VIP leadership and management workshop held at the NSCDC National Headquarters in Abuja on Wednesday.

The intensive training brought together state commandants, VIP commanders, and armorers from across the country.

​Audi emphasized that the mandate for VIP protection as conferred by President Bola Tinubu is a sacred trust that must not be compromised. He warned that his administration maintains a zero tolerance policy for any form of misconduct.

He said: “This administration will sanction any personnel found sabotaging the Corps’ efforts in implementing the VIP mandate,” adding that: “This responsibility must be carried out to the admiration of the government and Nigerians to justify the confidence reposed in us.”

The workshop, organized under the Directorate of Training and Manpower Development, serves as a strategic intervention to sharpen the tactical and administrative skills of the Corps’ leadership.

Acting Deputy Commandant General Muktar Lawal, explained that the curriculum focuses on: strengthening leadership capacity and management skills.

Improving interdepartmental coordination.

Reinforcing professionalism in armory management and decision-making.

​The CG underscored the importance of excellence by commending the VIP National Commander, Deputy Commandant of Corps Anyor Donald, for his professionalism and loyalty, urging others to embrace similar qualities.

​The event featured goodwill messages from the Corps’ top brass, including Deputy Commandants General Zakari Ibrahim Ningi, fdc; Nnamdi Nwinyi; Pedro Awili Ideba; and Professor Tyoor Frederick Terhemba, all echoing the need for heightened accountability in the field.

NSCDC Boss Charges Personnel on Professionalism, Integrityin VIP Protection

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VP Shettima Launches Vision 2050 Blueprint For South-East’s Economic Development

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VP Shettima Launches Vision 2050 Blueprint For South-East’s Economic Development

Says new investment company, diaspora partnerships will drive infrastructure, industrial transformation

By: Our Reporter

Vice President Kashim Shettima has launched a 25-year development blueprint for the South-East region, saying the region is a central pillar of Nigeria’s economic future.

He also announced that President Bola Ahmed Tinubu has approved the establishment of the South East Investment Company Limited, designed to mobilise resources from the diaspora, capital markets, and development finance institutions for the region’s development.

Speaking on Wednesday during the South-East Vision 2050 Regional Stakeholders’ Forum in Enugu, the Vice President said the gathering was a decisive break from short-term governance cycles toward a structured, multi-decade development framework.

“This forum reflects foresight, responsibility, and a shared understanding that the future is not something we wait for, but something we must deliberately design.

“In recognition of the distinctive character of the South-East, its entrepreneurial spirit, its global diaspora, and its long-standing relationship with international capital, President Bola Ahmed Tinubu approved the establishment of the South East Investment Company Limited,” VP Shettima said.

He said the company will work in synergy with the South-East Development Commission (SEDC) to address postwar infrastructure gaps and drive long-term regional competitiveness.

Senator Shettima reaffirmed that the SEDC was conceived to focus on structural transformation rather than routine administrative activity, insisting that Nigeria is strongest when its regions thrive.

“Let me be clear. This is not another layer of bureaucracy. It is a delivery institution, focused on tangible outcomes that translate into jobs, productivity, and growth,” he stated, noting that the South-East carries a unique historical burden, which makes deliberate regional planning both urgent and necessary.

The VP praised the inclusive nature of the forum, which brought together federal and state governments, traditional institutions, the private sector, civil society, and development partners.

He also acknowledged the presence of Umu Igbo Unite, a United States–based network of over 10,000 young professionals, saying, “The future of the South-East will be built both at home and abroad, together.”

Addressing the youth directly, the Vice President insisted that development must produce concrete results.

“To the young people of the South-East and of Nigeria as a whole, let me speak plainly. You are not spectators in our national journey. You are central to it. Your energy, creativity, and ambition are essential to the Nigeria we are working to build. Development must not remain an abstract promise. It must be felt in the daily lives of our people.

Earlier, Governor Peter Mbah of Enugu State joined his colleagues in the region in endorsing the vision 2050, explaining that the vision is an opportunity for the South East region to tap into the national agenda tagged vision 2060.

He applauded the unity of purpose among leaders and stakeholders in the region and proposed the birthing of a South East common market, describing the moment as the awakening of an economic giant.

On reimagining the South East as an economic bloc, Governor Mbah said the focus on the unity and synergy of ideas and resources and the decision to change the thinking of leaders and the people about their development trajectory, must remain paramount.

He urged a paradigm shift in the planning and execution of projects across the region while calling on the people of the area to complement the renewed drive by the Federal Government to improve the security of lives and livelihoods as well as integrate all parts of the region’s plan for inclusive development.

He thanked the Vice President for his show of dedication and substance to the cause of the South East region, noting that his presence reinforced the principle that sustainable regional development does not thrive in isolation but on dedicated national leadership as exemplified by the presence of the Vice President.

In his remarks, Governor Francis Nwifuru of Ebonyi State, pledged the support of the state government for the implementation of a development plan for the region, noting that the plan will close unemployment and poverty gaps, while unlocking potentials across different sectors of the region’s economy.

He said Ebonyi State, under his administration, is building on the foundation of past administration in agriculture and agribusiness, education, solid mineral development, and a roadmap for the transformation of Ebonyi state as a hub of rural development in the South East.

In the same vein, Governor Alex Otti of Abia State, expressed happiness and satisfaction over the unanimous adoption and support for the South East Vision 2050 by critical stakeholders across the private and public sectors, saying the summit is connected to revolution of the region and its economic transformation.

Citing examples of transparent leadership in Abia State and abundance of solid minerals and other natural resources across the South East, Governor Otti said the task of economic transformation and industrialisation of the region was feasible and possible with committed and transparent execution of development agenda.

For his part, Governor Charles Soludo of Anambra State, thanked President Tinubu for the creation of the SEDC, describing it as a gift to the region that has been clamoured for by stakeholders for a long time.

He said the conversation around the SEDC Vision 2050 was historic, as it was the first time the governors and other leaders across the region were united in the adoption of a framework that will guide the transformation of the area.

In a keynote address, the Resident Representative of the UNDP, Mrs Elsie Attafuah, spoke on global lessons in long-term regional planning through institutional capacity for sustainable implementation of development plans in complex contexts.

She said for genuine industrialisation to be achieved, policymakers and stakeholders must ensure that infrastructure built across the region serve domestic production.

She urged cutting edge execution of Vision 2050 by stakeholders across the region and noted the importance of catalysing the comparative advantages of southeastern states in ensuring sustainability of the gains recorded in the years to come.

In his remarks, the Minister of Regional Development, Engr Abubakar Momoh, said the event was a crowning moment in the development of the South East region, especially in fostering a united and prosperous future.

He said the creation of the SEDC by the administration of President Tinubu reflects an institutional commitment to the coordinated and targeted transformation of the region through the revitalisation of critical infrastructure such as the rail sector and the commodity ecosystem, among others.

For her part, the Minister of Trade and Investment, Dr Jumoke Oduwole, underscored the significance of aligning resources and efforts, which she said had been prioritized through the South East Vision 2050 programme.

Dr Oduwole pledged the support of her ministry and announced the ministry’s launch of a nationwide trade facilitation tour to boost the export potentials across the country, describing the South East region as the springboard for Nigeria’s industrial transformation.

In a goodwill message, President of Ohanaeze Ndigbo World Wide, Sen. Azuta Mbata, commended the Federal Government for its efforts in prioritizing regional integration and development through the summit.

He said the integration of the South East in the broader national development agenda is key, and pledged the support of the people of the region for the aspirations of the vision 2050 and the Renewed Hope Agenda of administration of President Bola Ahmed Tinubu.

On his part, Chairman of the South East Development Commission, Sir Emeka Wogu, thanked President Tinubu for his commitment to the progress and development of the South East region and its people.

He said the South East vision 2050 is unique and designed to ensure continuity in the execution of development agenda for the region and the synergy of efforts by the respective state governments.

For his part, the Managing Director of the SEDC, Mr Mark Okoye, thanked President Tinubu for the creation of the commission as a special purpose vehicle to champion the economic transformation of the region.

He said the SEDC will seek the partnership of state governments, diaspora community and the organised private sector in implementing the 2050 vision aimed at charting a shared path to sustainable prosperity for South East Nigeria focusing on infrastructure, power, peace building and connectivity, among others.

There were also goodwill messages from representatives of corporate bodies, the Manufacturers Association of Nigeria (MAN), faith-based organisations, youth groups, diaspora community and development partners, among others.

The Vice President, accompanied by governors of the southeast region and other dignitaries, toured the exhibition gallery mounted by the Director-General, National Council for Arts and Culture.

VP Shettima Launches Vision 2050 Blueprint For South-East’s Economic Development

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Zulum Receives Seven Ambassadors, UN Officials on Humanitarian Visit to Maiduguri

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Zulum Receives Seven Ambassadors, UN Officials on Humanitarian Visit to Maiduguri

By: Michael Mike

Borno State Governor, Prof. Babagana Zulum has received ambassadors from seven countries alongside senior United Nations and federal government officials during a high-level humanitarian visit to Maiduguri.

The visiting diplomats represented India, Egypt, Indonesia, the Philippines, Turkey, Malaysia and Qatar. They were accompanied by the United Nations Resident and Humanitarian Coordinator in Nigeria, Mohamed Fall, and the Minister of Humanitarian Affairs and Poverty Alleviation, Bernard Doro.

The visit was organised to give the international partners an opportunity to directly assess the humanitarian situation in Borno State and observe ongoing recovery and development efforts following years of conflict.

During the visit on Tuesday, the delegation was taken on a tour of key projects implemented by the Zulum administration in the areas of education, healthcare and human capital development. The tour was led by the Acting Governor of the state, Umar Usman Kadafur.

Addressing journalists after the tour, the UN Resident and Humanitarian Coordinator praised Governor Zulum for what he described as visible and impactful infrastructure development across the state. He noted that the projects showcased a different narrative from the usual focus on security challenges in the region.

According to Fall, initiatives in education, vocational skills training, girl-child education and malnutrition treatment demonstrate deliberate efforts to improve the lives of residents and address the underlying causes of the humanitarian crisis. He stressed that sustained investment in education remains critical to long-term peace and development in the state.

Also speaking, the Minister of Humanitarian Affairs and Poverty Alleviation expressed satisfaction with the level of progress recorded in Borno despite more than a decade of conflict. He commended the governor’s leadership, describing the facilities visited as practical tools for empowering residents and lifting them out of poverty.

The minister added that the vocational centres, comprehensive schools and other social infrastructure reflect a strong commitment to recovery, resilience and inclusive development in the state.

Zulum Receives Seven Ambassadors, UN Officials on Humanitarian Visit to Maiduguri

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