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Nigeria Needs Foresight, Not Firefighting: Rethinking Crisis Leadership for a Fragile Future
Nigeria Needs Foresight, Not Firefighting: Rethinking Crisis Leadership for a Fragile Future
By Maureen Okpe
As Nigeria battles overlapping crises—from spiralling insecurity and economic instability to climate shocks and growing social unrest—the question is no longer whether we need change, but how urgently we need leaders who can think beyond tomorrow’s headlines. A recent initiative by the National Institute for Policy and Strategic Studies (NIPSS), in partnership with Peace Building Development Consult (PBDC), provides a bold and timely answer: foresight.
Nigeria has been stuck in a cycle of crisis and reaction for too long, responding to emergencies with short-term patches rather than long-term vision. But the tide may be turning. A three-day senior leadership course on “Strategic Anticipation and Crisis Management,” hosted in Abuja, brought together over 70 senior leaders across sectors to explore a new leadership doctrine grounded in systems thinking, scenario planning, and proactive governance.

Dr. Garba Malumfashi of NIPSS set the tone: “Policymakers need foresight more than ever. We must manage and anticipate crises in this volatile, uncertain, complex, and ambiguous world.” This was not just another policy seminar. It was a call to overhaul Nigeria’s approach to leadership itself.
From Blind Spots to Scenario Thinking
The course delivered a clear message: crises are rarely sudden—they brew in ignored data, weak signals, and poor coordination. Anthony Kila, Director at the Commonwealth Institute, led participants through scenario planning exercises and foresight models. “The world is not waiting for Nigeria to catch up,” he said, urging leaders to stop reacting and start preparing.

He laid out seven pillars of resilient leadership, from strategic networking to performance-based thinking. Foresight, he argued, is not prediction but preparation. Scenario tools like PESTEL and SWOT are essential—not optional—for a country that wishes to survive and thrive in a rapidly changing global system.
Bridging Policy and Practice
What stood out most was the emphasis on institutional integration. Foresight cannot succeed as a one-off initiative; it must be embedded into governance, policymaking, and the bureaucracy. Dr. Malumfashi explained how early warning systems, horizon scanning, and the Delphi method can help governments move from crisis management to prevention.
He pointed out that national plans like Vision 2050 must be living documents—flexible enough to adapt to rapid technological, environmental, and geopolitical shifts. His recommendation? Forge alliances between NIPSS, think tanks, and foresight units across MDAs.

Human Security Starts with Information
PBDC’s Executive Director, Kayode Bolaji, made a compelling case for the centrality of risk communication in crisis response. “Crises rarely arrive like bolts from the blue,” he said. “They stem from ignored warnings and poor preparation.”
Citing COVID-19 and Hurricane Maria, Bolaji illustrated how misinformation, fear, and delayed communication exacerbate disaster impacts. He advocated for grassroots simulations, community-based early warning systems, and risk-informed governance. “Access to timely, trusted information is a lifeline,” he declared.
Security Beyond Guns
Nigeria’s security outlook also urgently needs recalibration. Dr. Kabir Adamu of Beacon Security Intelligence argued that guns and boots alone cannot confront today’s hybrid threats—from cyber warfare and climate shocks to pandemics and digital disinformation.
He introduced tools like backcasting, Enterprise Security Risk Management (ESRM), and data-driven forecasting. Foresight, he stressed, must become central to defence planning. Security institutions need interdisciplinary planners, AI integration, and youth engagement to prepare for the probable and the plausible.
Rural Blind Spots and Urban Oversight
Chris Ngwodo of the Office for Strategic Preparedness and Resilience (OSPRE) emphasised that insecurity often festers where development is absent. “Insecurity in Nigeria is predominantly a rural problem,” he said. “Rural abandonment creates a vacuum for conflict.”
He and retired Maj.-Gen. Adeyinka Famadewa echoed the need for decentralised foresight and scenario-based governance training that includes local governments, traditional leaders, and community networks.
Leadership Must Change Course
Prof. Ayo Omotayo, Director-General of NIPSS, closed the training with a sobering call: “Nothing will fall from the sky to solve our problems. It’s time to stop waiting for miracles and start acting.”
He called out policy inconsistency, public cynicism, and a lack of accountability. “Criticise with purpose—to build, not destroy,” he urged. The goal is to see the future and build the systems and leadership cultures that can meet it head-on.
What Comes Next?
Participants like Senator Iroegbu, CEO of CANAG Communications, and Eniola Ekubi of DEPOWA echoed a common sentiment: this was not just another training but a wake-up call. “This course gave me tools to anticipate and lead better,” said Ekubi.
Their reflections drive home a core truth: building national resilience starts with leaders who see further, think deeper, and act sooner.
Key Takeaways and Recommendations
The NIPSS training proves Nigeria can transition from reactive firefighting to strategic foresight—if it has the will. Foresight must be institutionalised as a leadership imperative, not a luxury.
Recommendations include:
•Establish foresight cells in all MDAs to support anticipatory policymaking.
•Integrate security and development policies to tackle the root causes of unrest.
•Include women, youth, civil society, and media in national foresight planning.
•Scale up foresight training at the federal, state, and local government levels.
- Institutionalise foresight as part of NIPSS’s core leadership development curriculum, with mechanisms for tracking implementation.
The future will not wait for Nigeria to be ready. It is already arriving. Whether we lead or lag depends on our choices today—and the foresight we apply to tomorrow.
Nigeria Needs Foresight, Not Firefighting: Rethinking Crisis Leadership for a Fragile Future
News
Experts Urge Evidence-Based Energy Reforms as Nigeria’s Transition Debate Intensifies
Experts Urge Evidence-Based Energy Reforms as Nigeria’s Transition Debate Intensifies
By: Michael Mike
Energy policy experts have called for stronger data-driven decision making in Nigeria’s energy transition process, warning that ambitious climate targets must be balanced with economic realities, job security, and the country’s persistent energy access challenges.
The call was made during a national policy dialogue where researchers presented findings on the economic, environmental, and political implications of different energy transition pathways for Nigeria.
At the event, the Stakeholders Research Workshop on Supporting Just Transition in Nigeria, organized on Tuesday in Abuja by the Ministry of Environment and Society for Planet and Prosperity (SPP), analysts said the study was designed to help guide policymaking by providing empirical insights into how various decarbonisation strategies could impact growth, employment, and emissions.

President of the Society for Planet and Prosperity, Professor Chukwumerije Okereke, said Nigeria’s existing commitments under its Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) and Energy Transition Plan (ETP) are ambitious but require stronger technical validation before full implementation.
He noted that current projections suggesting up to 85 percent adoption of electric vehicles by 2060 and large-scale solar electricity generation of about 150 gigawatts may be difficult to achieve under current infrastructure and investment conditions.
“Policy targets are not enough on their own,” Okereke said. “What matters is how these targets will be achieved and what the economic and social consequences will be.”
He added that the research explores multiple transition scenarios, including gas-centered development, renewable-focused expansion, and hybrid energy strategies combining both gas and renewable technologies.
According to him, a balanced transition pathway may be more realistic for Nigeria, allowing the country to gradually reduce emissions while still leveraging its vast natural gas resources to support industrial growth and electricity access.
Researchers also emphasized that Nigeria’s transition strategy must address energy poverty, noting that millions of households still lack reliable electricity supply. They said distributed renewable energy systems, particularly solar mini-grids, could play a crucial role in expanding electricity access to rural and underserved communities.
Energy economists involved in the study explained that their analysis combined energy modelling with macroeconomic projections to assess how different policy choices would influence GDP growth, employment creation, and carbon emissions.
Senior Research Fellow, ODI Global, Dr. Timothy Kelsall said the research does not attempt to predict future outcomes but instead evaluates possible consequences of policy decisions.
“We are not predicting the future,” Kelsall said. “We are showing policymakers what could happen under different scenarios so they can make informed decisions.”
He explained that the study models three major transition pathways — gas-focused transition, renewable-dominated transition, and hybrid energy development — noting that each pathway would create different economic and political impacts across sectors.
Analysts also stressed that energy transition policies must consider Nigeria’s political economy realities, as policy reforms often create winners and losers across industries and interest groups.
Experts warned that abrupt policy changes could trigger economic disruptions, particularly in regions and sectors heavily dependent on fossil fuel revenues. Instead, they recommended a gradual transition supported by investment incentives, industrial development policies, and workforce reskilling programs.
The research also examined the use of savings from fuel subsidy reforms, noting that simply removing subsidies without clear reinvestment strategies would not automatically translate into development gains.
Stakeholders said subsidy savings could be redirected toward renewable energy infrastructure, social protection programs, and industrial development initiatives that support economic diversification.
While Nigeria continues to depend heavily on oil and gas exports for foreign exchange earnings, analysts said diversification efforts remain critical for long-term economic stability.
However, they stressed that natural gas could play a transitional role in supporting electricity generation and industrial expansion while renewable energy capacity continues to grow.
Researchers urged stronger collaboration between government institutions, private sector investors, and civil society organisations to ensure successful implementation of transition policies.
As Nigeria navigates its climate and energy future, experts say the country must pursue a pragmatic energy strategy that balances environmental protection with economic growth and improved access to reliable electricity for its growing population.
Experts Urge Evidence-Based Energy Reforms as Nigeria’s Transition Debate Intensifies
News
Nigeria Expands Citizen Feedback Infrastructure as PEBEC, FAAN Launch ReportGov Kiosks at Major Airports
Nigeria Expands Citizen Feedback Infrastructure as PEBEC, FAAN Launch ReportGov Kiosks at Major Airports
By: Michael Mike
The Federal Government has intensified efforts to strengthen transparency, accountability, and public service efficiency with the reactivation and upgrade of the national ReportGov feedback system across major international airports in Nigeria.
The initiative, driven by the Presidential Enabling Business Environment Council (PEBEC) and the Federal Airports Authority of Nigeria (FAAN), was formally unveiled at the Murtala Muhammed International Airport Terminal 2 in Lagos, with plans to extend the system to airports in Abuja, Port Harcourt, Enugu, and Kano.
Officials said the project is part of broader governance reforms aimed at improving citizen trust in public institutions while enhancing Nigeria’s business environment and service delivery standards across government agencies.
At the unveiling ceremony, PEBEC Director-General Princess Zahrah Mustapha Audu said the reactivation of ReportGov kiosks represents the federal government’s commitment to placing citizens at the center of governance reform.

She explained that the platform is designed to capture real-time complaints, commendations, and service improvement suggestions from citizens while helping government institutions respond faster to service failures.
According to her, institutionalizing feedback mechanisms will help reduce bureaucratic delays, improve inter-agency coordination, and ensure that public service performance is measured by actual service outcomes experienced by citizens.
FAAN Managing Director Olubunmi Kuku described airports as strategic economic gateways where service quality directly affects Nigeria’s international reputation.
She said improving passenger experience is critical for attracting foreign investment, promoting tourism, and strengthening business travel confidence. Kuku added that FAAN would continue supporting initiatives that promote transparency, operational efficiency, and customer-centered service delivery across Nigeria’s aviation facilities, noting that airport efficiency is closely linked to national economic competitiveness.
ReportGov serves as Nigeria’s official national grievance redress platform designed to capture citizen feedback on service delivery challenges across Ministries, Departments, and Agencies.
The newly upgraded physical kiosks will operate 24 hours daily in high-traffic public locations, allowing travellers and citizens to submit complaints, compliments, and policy suggestions directly into government monitoring systems.

Officials said the platform is structured to track complaints from submission to final resolution, helping authorities identify systemic service gaps and discourage unethical practices in public service interactions.
Government reform advocates said the initiative reflects a broader shift toward citizen-centered governance, where public satisfaction becomes a key performance indicator for government institutions.
Stakeholders noted that improving feedback infrastructure is particularly important as Nigeria continues efforts to diversify its economy and strengthen investor confidence in key sectors such as aviation, trade, and services.
Industry analysts said strengthening service delivery at airports is particularly important because aviation facilities serve as Nigeria’s international interface with the global economy. They explained that passengers’ first experiences at airports often shape perceptions about business conditions, investment potential, and tourism opportunities in the country. Improved feedback systems, they said, will help authorities address operational challenges such as passenger processing delays, service quality issues, and infrastructure maintenance gaps.
Officials also emphasized that the expanded deployment of ReportGov kiosks aligns with national anti-corruption and governance reform objectives. By creating structured reporting channels, the government hopes to strengthen transparency, reduce rent-seeking behavior, and improve coordination among agencies responsible for public service delivery.
As Nigeria continues its economic reform and infrastructure development agenda, authorities said citizen feedback will remain a central tool for measuring public service performance and guiding future policy decisions.
Nigeria Expands Citizen Feedback Infrastructure as PEBEC, FAAN Launch ReportGov Kiosks at Major Airports
News
KACRAN Calls for Increased Funding for Northeast Development
KACRAN Calls for Increased Funding for Northeast Development
By: Michael Mike
The Kulen Allah Cattle Rearers Association of Nigeria (KACRAN) has commended the North East Development Commission (NEDC) for demonstrating transparency and accountability following its recently concluded month-long inspection of development projects across the Northeast region.
In a statement released by KACRAN National President Hon. Khalil Mohammed Bello, the association described the inspection exercise as a strong indicator of responsible public administration, noting that comprehensive project verification remains a key test of accountability in public service delivery.

KACRAN stated that the NEDC’s decision to conduct high-level inspections of both ongoing and completed projects reflects a commitment to ensuring that public funds are translated into tangible developmental outcomes for citizens in the region.
The association further praised what it described as the “boldness and confidence” displayed by the Commission during the inspection tour, saying it signals that projects executed by the agency meet required standards and represent value for money.
Of particular interest to KACRAN members are the Commission’s investments in water infrastructure and livestock support projects aimed at improving pastoral livelihoods across the Northeast.
The association noted that such initiatives are critical to sustaining the livestock sector and supporting pastoral communities, while also aligning with President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s Renewed Hope Agenda, which prioritizes livestock development, food security, and economic diversification.

KACRAN said strengthening livestock production could help reduce Nigeria’s reliance on imported dairy and meat products while positioning the country as a potential exporter of livestock products in the long term.
The group also commended the composition of the NEDC inspection team, which included the Commission’s Governing Board Chairman, Managing Director, and senior directors from finance, operations, and humanitarian affairs. KACRAN said the inclusion of senior management personnel and media representatives during the nearly 30-day inspection tour demonstrates transparency and accountability in governance.
The inspection covered several development sectors including road infrastructure, drainage systems, primary healthcare facilities, educational projects, water points for livestock, and distribution of humanitarian relief materials to internally displaced persons (IDPs).
KACRAN described the NEDC as a model of sincerity and dedication in Nigeria’s public sector, praising the Commission’s efforts toward the rehabilitation and economic recovery of the Northeast region.
The association, however, called on President Bola Ahmed Tinubu to ensure timely and adequate funding for the NEDC to enable the Commission to sustain its development and humanitarian programs.
It stressed that increased funding would strengthen infrastructure development, livestock productivity, peace-building efforts, and humanitarian interventions across the Northeast.
KACRAN Calls for Increased Funding for Northeast Development
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