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Nigeria Needs Foresight, Not Firefighting: Rethinking Crisis Leadership for a Fragile Future
Nigeria Needs Foresight, Not Firefighting: Rethinking Crisis Leadership for a Fragile Future
By Maureen Okpe
As Nigeria battles overlapping crises—from spiralling insecurity and economic instability to climate shocks and growing social unrest—the question is no longer whether we need change, but how urgently we need leaders who can think beyond tomorrow’s headlines. A recent initiative by the National Institute for Policy and Strategic Studies (NIPSS), in partnership with Peace Building Development Consult (PBDC), provides a bold and timely answer: foresight.
Nigeria has been stuck in a cycle of crisis and reaction for too long, responding to emergencies with short-term patches rather than long-term vision. But the tide may be turning. A three-day senior leadership course on “Strategic Anticipation and Crisis Management,” hosted in Abuja, brought together over 70 senior leaders across sectors to explore a new leadership doctrine grounded in systems thinking, scenario planning, and proactive governance.
Dr. Garba Malumfashi of NIPSS set the tone: “Policymakers need foresight more than ever. We must manage and anticipate crises in this volatile, uncertain, complex, and ambiguous world.” This was not just another policy seminar. It was a call to overhaul Nigeria’s approach to leadership itself.
From Blind Spots to Scenario Thinking
The course delivered a clear message: crises are rarely sudden—they brew in ignored data, weak signals, and poor coordination. Anthony Kila, Director at the Commonwealth Institute, led participants through scenario planning exercises and foresight models. “The world is not waiting for Nigeria to catch up,” he said, urging leaders to stop reacting and start preparing.
He laid out seven pillars of resilient leadership, from strategic networking to performance-based thinking. Foresight, he argued, is not prediction but preparation. Scenario tools like PESTEL and SWOT are essential—not optional—for a country that wishes to survive and thrive in a rapidly changing global system.
Bridging Policy and Practice
What stood out most was the emphasis on institutional integration. Foresight cannot succeed as a one-off initiative; it must be embedded into governance, policymaking, and the bureaucracy. Dr. Malumfashi explained how early warning systems, horizon scanning, and the Delphi method can help governments move from crisis management to prevention.
He pointed out that national plans like Vision 2050 must be living documents—flexible enough to adapt to rapid technological, environmental, and geopolitical shifts. His recommendation? Forge alliances between NIPSS, think tanks, and foresight units across MDAs.
Human Security Starts with Information
PBDC’s Executive Director, Kayode Bolaji, made a compelling case for the centrality of risk communication in crisis response. “Crises rarely arrive like bolts from the blue,” he said. “They stem from ignored warnings and poor preparation.”
Citing COVID-19 and Hurricane Maria, Bolaji illustrated how misinformation, fear, and delayed communication exacerbate disaster impacts. He advocated for grassroots simulations, community-based early warning systems, and risk-informed governance. “Access to timely, trusted information is a lifeline,” he declared.
Security Beyond Guns
Nigeria’s security outlook also urgently needs recalibration. Dr. Kabir Adamu of Beacon Security Intelligence argued that guns and boots alone cannot confront today’s hybrid threats—from cyber warfare and climate shocks to pandemics and digital disinformation.
He introduced tools like backcasting, Enterprise Security Risk Management (ESRM), and data-driven forecasting. Foresight, he stressed, must become central to defence planning. Security institutions need interdisciplinary planners, AI integration, and youth engagement to prepare for the probable and the plausible.
Rural Blind Spots and Urban Oversight
Chris Ngwodo of the Office for Strategic Preparedness and Resilience (OSPRE) emphasised that insecurity often festers where development is absent. “Insecurity in Nigeria is predominantly a rural problem,” he said. “Rural abandonment creates a vacuum for conflict.”
He and retired Maj.-Gen. Adeyinka Famadewa echoed the need for decentralised foresight and scenario-based governance training that includes local governments, traditional leaders, and community networks.
Leadership Must Change Course
Prof. Ayo Omotayo, Director-General of NIPSS, closed the training with a sobering call: “Nothing will fall from the sky to solve our problems. It’s time to stop waiting for miracles and start acting.”
He called out policy inconsistency, public cynicism, and a lack of accountability. “Criticise with purpose—to build, not destroy,” he urged. The goal is to see the future and build the systems and leadership cultures that can meet it head-on.
What Comes Next?
Participants like Senator Iroegbu, CEO of CANAG Communications, and Eniola Ekubi of DEPOWA echoed a common sentiment: this was not just another training but a wake-up call. “This course gave me tools to anticipate and lead better,” said Ekubi.
Their reflections drive home a core truth: building national resilience starts with leaders who see further, think deeper, and act sooner.
Key Takeaways and Recommendations
The NIPSS training proves Nigeria can transition from reactive firefighting to strategic foresight—if it has the will. Foresight must be institutionalised as a leadership imperative, not a luxury.
Recommendations include:
•Establish foresight cells in all MDAs to support anticipatory policymaking.
•Integrate security and development policies to tackle the root causes of unrest.
•Include women, youth, civil society, and media in national foresight planning.
•Scale up foresight training at the federal, state, and local government levels.
- Institutionalise foresight as part of NIPSS’s core leadership development curriculum, with mechanisms for tracking implementation.
The future will not wait for Nigeria to be ready. It is already arriving. Whether we lead or lag depends on our choices today—and the foresight we apply to tomorrow.
Nigeria Needs Foresight, Not Firefighting: Rethinking Crisis Leadership for a Fragile Future
AT ARMED FORCES CELEBRATION AND REMEMBRANCE DAY
ALL IN HONOUR OF OUR NATION’S FALLEN HEROES
By: Our Reporter
Vice President Kashim Shettima today represented President Bola Ahmed Tinubu GCFR at the 2026 Armed Forces Celebration and Remembrance Day ceremony held at the National Arcade in Abuja.
Also in attendance were the President of the Senate, Senator Godswill Obot Akpabio; the Chief Justice of Nigeria, Justice Kudirat Kekere-Ekun; the Deputy Speaker of the House of Representatives, Benjamin Kalu; ministers, service chiefs and other government officials.
The solemn event commemorates the courage and sacrifices of Nigeria’s fallen heroes who gave their lives in service to the nation.
AT ARMED FORCES CELEBRATION AND REMEMBRANCE DAY
Technology enhances immersive reading experience in Beijing
By Shi Fang, People’s Daily
“Mr. Lu Xun, could you recommend one of your classic works?”
“If I were to suggest one, perhaps Call to Arms would be a good starting point…”
This conversation took place at the Metaverse Experience Hall of the Beijing Library. Supported by artificial intelligence (AI) and other emerging technologies, the hall offers visitors a novel approach to immersive reading and knowledge-based social engagement.
As one of three institutions under the Capital Library of China, the Beijing Library has introduced an AI-powered digital human modeled after renowned Chinese writer Lu Xun. Historically, Lu Xun played a role in establishing the predecessor of the Capital Library of China. Today, his digital incarnation symbolizes the library’s digital transformation.
“We developed the digital Lu Xun using AI technologies to provide guided tours, recommend books, and introduce local cuisine and cultural sites,” explained Fei Jun, professor with the School of Design, the Central Academy of Fine Arts, and creative director of the Metaverse Experience Hall. His team conducted in-depth research on Lu Xun’s life and works to create a realistic and multidimensional digital persona.
In addition to the digital Lu Xun, Fei’s team created two other digital characters, “Tutu” and “2122,” each with distinct personalities: one childlike and the other futuristic. These avatars, driven by large language models, engage visitors in conversations about literature and everyday life. Since the library opened at the end of 2023, these AI characters have participated in more than 1.7 million voice interactions.
Seven-year-old reader Wang Jiayi eagerly asked “2122” questions such as, “Why did dinosaurs go extinct?” and “Why do maple leaves turn red in autumn?” Her mother commented, “The digital humans are engaging and informative. They genuinely spark children’s interest in learning.”
Entering the library feels akin to stepping into a digital universe.
Visitors can scan a QR code to verify their identity, customize their attire, and quickly generate digital avatars within the Metaverse. These avatars can navigate virtual spaces such as the Children’s Library, Ancient Books Collection, Art Literature Library, and Intangible Cultural Heritage Library, exploring venue information and upcoming events.
Readers also interact with one another via their digital avatars, sharing reading lists, exchanging book reviews, and bridging online and offline reading experiences.
Looking ahead, the library plans to introduce additional immersive features, including personalized virtual study rooms. “Our goal is to offer a multisensory experience — visual, auditory, and even tactile — so users feel as if they’ve entered a parallel world for immersive reading,” Fei said. His team is also developing an online version of the metaverse library, enabling remote access to its digital environment and vast knowledge collections.
“Beyond traditional print books, we want to create a technology-enhanced environment that sparks curiosity and encourages readers to explore knowledge in innovative ways,” said Li Nianzu, deputy director of the Capital Library of China.
Photo shows the Beijing library under the night sky. (Photo/Fan Jiashan)
Readers visit the Metaverse Experience Hall of the Beijing Library. (Photo/Fan Jiashan)
A reader interacts with the digital Lu Xun at the Metaverse Experience Hall of the Beijing Library. (Photo from Beijing Youth Daily)
Technology enhances immersive reading experience in Beijing
Rights Groups Condemn Demolition of Makoko, Call for Immediate Halt
By: Michael Mike
A coalition of national and international human rights, environmental, and social justice organisations has condemned what they describe as the “violent and unlawful” demolition of Makoko, a historic waterfront fishing community along the Lagos Lagoon.
In a joint statement released, the groups alleged that demolition activities began on January 5, 2026, and have continued despite outcry from residents and civil society actors.
According to the organisations, government-backed demolition teams have destroyed homes, schools, health facilities, and religious buildings, leaving hundreds of families without shelter.
Eyewitness accounts cited in the statement claim that security personnel accompanying the demolition teams used tear gas and excessive force against residents, including women, children, and elderly persons. Displaced families are reportedly sleeping in boats, churches, and open spaces along the lagoon as they struggle to find temporary refuge.
The coalition further noted that Makoko is not an isolated case. Over the past year, thousands of residents across several Lagos waterfront and informal communities—including Oko-Baba, Ayetoro, Otumara, Baba-Ijora, Oworonshoki, and Precious Seeds—have faced similar evictions. In many cases, demolitions were carried out without prior notice, consultation, or resettlement plans.
The groups also referenced past demolitions in Badia East, Otodo-Gbame, Maroko, Monkey Village, Ilaje-Bariga, and Ifelodun, saying the Lagos State Government has repeatedly ignored court orders restraining such actions. They alleged that several deaths have been linked to forced evictions over the years.
“The pattern reflects a systemic disregard for human rights, due process, and the rule of law,” the statement read. “These actions violate Nigeria’s constitution and international human rights obligations while deepening Lagos’s housing crisis.”
The coalition called on the Lagos State Government to immediately suspend all ongoing demolitions, respect existing court injunctions, investigate allegations of abuse, and provide fair compensation and adequate resettlement for affected residents.
They also urged authorities to adopt more inclusive, rights-based, and environmentally sustainable urban planning that protects livelihoods rather than displacing vulnerable communities.
The statement was signed by 23 organisations, including Health of Mother Earth Foundation (HOMEF), Corporate Accountability and Public Participation Africa (CAPPA), Environmental Rights Action/Friends of the Earth Nigeria (ERA/FoEN), Policy Alert, WoMin African Alliance, and Norway’s Rafto Foundation for Human Rights, among others.
As of press time, the Lagos State Government had not issued an official response to the allegations.
Rights Groups Condemn Demolition of Makoko, Call for Immediate Halt
AT ARMED FORCES CELEBRATION AND REMEMBRANCE DAY
Technology enhances immersive reading experience in Beijing
Rights Groups Condemn Demolition of Makoko, Call for Immediate Halt
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