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Nigeria Needs Foresight, Not Firefighting: Rethinking Crisis Leadership for a Fragile Future

Nigeria Needs Foresight, Not Firefighting: Rethinking Crisis Leadership for a Fragile Future
By Maureen Okpe
As Nigeria battles overlapping crises—from spiralling insecurity and economic instability to climate shocks and growing social unrest—the question is no longer whether we need change, but how urgently we need leaders who can think beyond tomorrow’s headlines. A recent initiative by the National Institute for Policy and Strategic Studies (NIPSS), in partnership with Peace Building Development Consult (PBDC), provides a bold and timely answer: foresight.
Nigeria has been stuck in a cycle of crisis and reaction for too long, responding to emergencies with short-term patches rather than long-term vision. But the tide may be turning. A three-day senior leadership course on “Strategic Anticipation and Crisis Management,” hosted in Abuja, brought together over 70 senior leaders across sectors to explore a new leadership doctrine grounded in systems thinking, scenario planning, and proactive governance.

Dr. Garba Malumfashi of NIPSS set the tone: “Policymakers need foresight more than ever. We must manage and anticipate crises in this volatile, uncertain, complex, and ambiguous world.” This was not just another policy seminar. It was a call to overhaul Nigeria’s approach to leadership itself.
From Blind Spots to Scenario Thinking
The course delivered a clear message: crises are rarely sudden—they brew in ignored data, weak signals, and poor coordination. Anthony Kila, Director at the Commonwealth Institute, led participants through scenario planning exercises and foresight models. “The world is not waiting for Nigeria to catch up,” he said, urging leaders to stop reacting and start preparing.

He laid out seven pillars of resilient leadership, from strategic networking to performance-based thinking. Foresight, he argued, is not prediction but preparation. Scenario tools like PESTEL and SWOT are essential—not optional—for a country that wishes to survive and thrive in a rapidly changing global system.
Bridging Policy and Practice
What stood out most was the emphasis on institutional integration. Foresight cannot succeed as a one-off initiative; it must be embedded into governance, policymaking, and the bureaucracy. Dr. Malumfashi explained how early warning systems, horizon scanning, and the Delphi method can help governments move from crisis management to prevention.
He pointed out that national plans like Vision 2050 must be living documents—flexible enough to adapt to rapid technological, environmental, and geopolitical shifts. His recommendation? Forge alliances between NIPSS, think tanks, and foresight units across MDAs.

Human Security Starts with Information
PBDC’s Executive Director, Kayode Bolaji, made a compelling case for the centrality of risk communication in crisis response. “Crises rarely arrive like bolts from the blue,” he said. “They stem from ignored warnings and poor preparation.”
Citing COVID-19 and Hurricane Maria, Bolaji illustrated how misinformation, fear, and delayed communication exacerbate disaster impacts. He advocated for grassroots simulations, community-based early warning systems, and risk-informed governance. “Access to timely, trusted information is a lifeline,” he declared.
Security Beyond Guns
Nigeria’s security outlook also urgently needs recalibration. Dr. Kabir Adamu of Beacon Security Intelligence argued that guns and boots alone cannot confront today’s hybrid threats—from cyber warfare and climate shocks to pandemics and digital disinformation.
He introduced tools like backcasting, Enterprise Security Risk Management (ESRM), and data-driven forecasting. Foresight, he stressed, must become central to defence planning. Security institutions need interdisciplinary planners, AI integration, and youth engagement to prepare for the probable and the plausible.
Rural Blind Spots and Urban Oversight
Chris Ngwodo of the Office for Strategic Preparedness and Resilience (OSPRE) emphasised that insecurity often festers where development is absent. “Insecurity in Nigeria is predominantly a rural problem,” he said. “Rural abandonment creates a vacuum for conflict.”
He and retired Maj.-Gen. Adeyinka Famadewa echoed the need for decentralised foresight and scenario-based governance training that includes local governments, traditional leaders, and community networks.
Leadership Must Change Course
Prof. Ayo Omotayo, Director-General of NIPSS, closed the training with a sobering call: “Nothing will fall from the sky to solve our problems. It’s time to stop waiting for miracles and start acting.”
He called out policy inconsistency, public cynicism, and a lack of accountability. “Criticise with purpose—to build, not destroy,” he urged. The goal is to see the future and build the systems and leadership cultures that can meet it head-on.
What Comes Next?
Participants like Senator Iroegbu, CEO of CANAG Communications, and Eniola Ekubi of DEPOWA echoed a common sentiment: this was not just another training but a wake-up call. “This course gave me tools to anticipate and lead better,” said Ekubi.
Their reflections drive home a core truth: building national resilience starts with leaders who see further, think deeper, and act sooner.
Key Takeaways and Recommendations
The NIPSS training proves Nigeria can transition from reactive firefighting to strategic foresight—if it has the will. Foresight must be institutionalised as a leadership imperative, not a luxury.
Recommendations include:
•Establish foresight cells in all MDAs to support anticipatory policymaking.
•Integrate security and development policies to tackle the root causes of unrest.
•Include women, youth, civil society, and media in national foresight planning.
•Scale up foresight training at the federal, state, and local government levels.
- Institutionalise foresight as part of NIPSS’s core leadership development curriculum, with mechanisms for tracking implementation.
The future will not wait for Nigeria to be ready. It is already arriving. Whether we lead or lag depends on our choices today—and the foresight we apply to tomorrow.
Nigeria Needs Foresight, Not Firefighting: Rethinking Crisis Leadership for a Fragile Future
News
RHI Flow With Confidence program Launched across Nigeria

RHI Flow With Confidence program Launched across Nigeria
“Don’t Allow Shame or Stigma Affect Your Confidence” – Senator Oluremi Tinubu to School Girls at the Launch of Flow With Confidence Program in Maiduguri, Borno State
By: Our Reporter
The Flow With Confidence program, a vital menstrual health intervention, is designed to empower schoolgirls with knowledge, build confidence, and promote improved menstrual hygiene. The initiative targets 370,000 beneficiaries, mostly from rural communities who struggle to access hygienic care while in school.
Launched simultaneously in seven states – Borno, Ekiti, Enugu, Gombe, Imo, Kebbi, and Lagos – by the First Lady of Nigeria, Senator Oluremi Tinubu, the program provides each beneficiary with a one-year supply of disposable sanitary pads.
At the official launch in Maiduguri, the First Lady was represented by the Wife of the Vice President, Hajiya Nana Shettima. She stressed that it is unacceptable for young girls to face significant challenges during their menstrual cycle, often forcing them to miss school days because they cannot afford sanitary pads.
Senator Oluremi Tinubu noted that many girls resort to unhygienic alternatives, hence the introduction of Flow With Confidence as a safe, hygienic option to enhance reproductive wellbeing. Each state under the initiative will have 10,000 beneficiaries.
Encouraging the girls, the First Lady urged them not to allow shame or stigma to affect their confidence but to boldly pursue their dreams as future leaders of the nation. She further called on corporate organizations and well-meaning individuals to support the program, while charging traditional, religious, and community leaders to ensure transparent distribution in their localities.
Borno State Governor, Professor Babagana Umara Zulum, represented by the Deputy Governor, Alhaji Umar Usman Kadafur, expressed the government’s profound appreciation to President Bola Ahmed Tinubu, whose leadership continues to rekindle hope and restore dignity to countless families by prioritizing economic empowerment as a driver of national development.
The Governor also commended the First Lady for addressing an often-neglected aspect of girls’ and women’s dignity and reproductive health.
Similarly, the Borno State RHI Coordinator and Wife of the Governor, Dr. Falmata Umara Zulum, lauded the First Lady’s commitment to caring for the most vulnerable in society through her numerous interventions under the Renewed Hope Initiative (RHI), complementing the efforts of President Bola Ahmed Tinubu.
Meanwhile, the First Lady also handed over assorted food items to the Borno State RHI Coordinator, Dr. Falmata Babagana Zulum, for onward distribution to vulnerable groups and persons with disabilities. This places Borno among the beneficiaries of the monthly RHI Food Outreach Scheme, flagged off in March 2024 with support from two leading industrialists.
RHI Flow With Confidence program Launched across Nigeria
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Fagbemi Calls for Appellate Mechanism in ECOWAS Court

Fagbemi Calls for Appellate Mechanism in ECOWAS Court
…Insists Absence of Appellate Court at Regional Level Undermines Access to Justice
By: Michael Mike
The Attorney General of the Federation and Minister of Justice, Prince Lateef Fagbemi has called for the establishment of an appellate mechanism within the ECOWAS Court of Justice, stating that the absence of such mechanism continued to undermine access to justice in the region.
Speaking at the opening ceremony of the 2025/2026 legal year of ECOWAS Court, Fagbemi said while the finality of judgments is crucial, fairness also demands that decisions be open to review in order to correct possible errors of law or procedure.
Fagbemi while noting that the absence of appellate court at the regional level is a letdown, said: “It is concerning that there is currently inadequate room for appeal against the judgments of the ECOWAS Court. While finality is important, justice must also be seen to be fair and revisable,” insisting that: “The absence of a separate appellate mechanism limits access to justice. As we expand the Court’s reach, we must also ensure that its decisions are subject to the same standards of review and accountability that underpin robust judicial systems.”
He urged the Court to draw lessons from other regional judicial institutions such as the European Court of Human Rights, the East African Court of Justice and the Inter-American Court of Human Rights, which, according to him, offer valuable models of transparency, judicial independence and procedural innovation.
He however restated Nigeria’s support for the ECOWAS Court as host country, describing it as central to regional integration, human rights enforcement and stability. “Nigeria remains steadfast in its support for the ECOWAS Court of Justice… I pledge to continue advocating for legal reforms that align domestic laws with regional obligations while respecting our constitutional order and national interests,” Fagbemi added.
Also speaking, the President of Cabo Verde, José Neves, said community justice remains vital for Africa’s credibility in global affairs. He stressed that strengthening institutions such as the ECOWAS Court was essential for peace, democracy and integration on the continent.
He said: “In a continent still marked by border disputes and recurring tensions, the existence of an independent and respected community tribunal is a civilisational triumph that we must preserve and enhance,” Neves said. He noted that access to the Court by individual citizens was one of the most significant gains of regional integration, as it brings justice closer to the people.
Neves also called for reforms within African sub-regional bodies to make them more effective in addressing contemporary challenges such as insecurity, institutional fragility, migration and climate change.
In his address, the President of the ECOWAS Court, Justice Ricardo Goncalves, disclosed that the Court handled 34 new cases in the past year, including matters relating to civil and political rights, economic freedoms, and disputes between member states.
He also revealed that the Court held 79 judicial sessions and issued 54 rulings, many of which reaffirmed key principles such as the justiciability of socio-economic rights and the supremacy of community law over conflicting national legislation. According to him, 112 cases are currently pending before the Court.
Fagbemi Calls for Appellate Mechanism in ECOWAS Court
News
Trans-Border Security: Zulum travels to Niger Republic Community

Trans-Border Security: Zulum travels to Niger Republic Community
By: Michael Mike
Borno State Governor, Prof. Babagana Zulum on Wednesday, undertook a working visit to Diffa Region of Niger Republic on Wednesday.
The visit, which included a high-level security and economic delegation, focused on strengthening the existing collaboration between Nigerian and Nigerien forces in the ongoing fight against insurgency, particularly around the shores of Lake Chad.
Diffa is a community 17 km from Damasak town in northern Borno where thousands of Nigerians displaced by Boko Haram insurgency are currently taking refuge.
Zulum was received by the Governor of Diffa, Brigadier General Mahamaduo Ibrahim Bagadoma, and other senior officials. The leaders held closed-door meetings centered on joint patrols, intelligence sharing, and sustaining the recent gains that have pushed insurgents out of many of their former strongholds.
Zulum outlined plan to leverage the improved security situation to facilitate the return of thousands of displaced farmers to the vast and fertile agricultural lands around Dutchi town within the Lake Chad basin.
Part of the Governor’s entourage are Engr Bukar Talba, a member of the House of Representatives, Speaker, Borno State House of Assembly, Abdulkarim Lawan, and otheir senior government officials.
[10/2, 6:35 PM] Mike Olugbode: Maiduguri: For Over a Month, MSF Responds to High Numbers of Children Suffering from Malnutrition.
Since late August and early September, Doctors Without Borders/Médecins Sans Frontières (MSF) teams have scaled up their medical response in Maiduguri, northeast Nigeria, following a sharp rise in malnutrition cases that overwhelmed MSF-supported facilities. Although admissions have slightly decreased now, the number of children receiving treatment remains very high.
“A month ago, we witnessed a worrying increase in admissions, compounded by a surge in measles cases,” said MSF Project Coordinator Daniela Batista. “Our isolation units for measles patients were quickly filled, and even the additional space we opened reached capacity. Now, those units remain around 70 percent full.”
Since 8 September, MSF’s Inpatient Therapeutic Feeding Centre (ITFC) at Nilefa Kiji Hospital (NKH) has nearly doubled its bed capacity to accommodate the influx of malnourished children. By the third week of September, the emergency facility was recording an average of more than 85 new admissions daily.
In a context of reduced global humanitarian funding, some organizations in Maiduguri reduced their support for – or even left – nutritional outpatient nutrition programmes, causing a significant drop in access for first line care fir malnourished children.
At MSF’s extension facility in Shuwari, teams treated 3,265 children for malnutrition and referred 1,521 others for continued care between August and early September, when the upsurge began. More than 625 malnourished children have also been treated for measles — a disease which can contribute to malnutrition and whose complications can result from malnutrition.
The situation is further exacerbated by shortages of essential supplies. Therapeutic milk — critical for treating severe acute malnutrition — is in short supply, while access to ready-to-use therapeutic food (RUTF) remains a chronic concern. Some partner ITFCs have indicated they can only accept referrals if MSF provides additional medical supplies such as antibiotics, admission kits, and therapeutic milk.
MSF teams also reported regular admissions of patients from Zabarmari — a community they are currently unable to access due to security and logistical challenges. MSF is engaging with the Borno State Ministry of Health to assess and potentially support the local Primary Health Centre (PHC) to ensure residents can access care.
Borno State continues to face the effects of a decade-long insurgency, with recent reports of violence in areas surrounding Maiduguri.
This surge in Maiduguri mirrors an alarming trend seen in all MSF nutrition facilities across Kebbi, Sokoto, Kano, Katsina, and Bauchi in recent months. According to UN estimates, 2.5 million children across northeast Nigeria are at risk of acute malnutrition.
MSF called on health authorities and humanitarian organizations to urgently address the shortages in medical supplies and staffing, and to strengthen community-level health systems to prevent further deterioration.
Trans-Border Security: Zulum travels to Niger Republic Community
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