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Nigeria Needs Foresight, Not Firefighting: Rethinking Crisis Leadership for a Fragile Future

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Nigeria Needs Foresight, Not Firefighting: Rethinking Crisis Leadership for a Fragile Future

By Maureen Okpe

As Nigeria battles overlapping crises—from spiralling insecurity and economic instability to climate shocks and growing social unrest—the question is no longer whether we need change, but how urgently we need leaders who can think beyond tomorrow’s headlines. A recent initiative by the National Institute for Policy and Strategic Studies (NIPSS), in partnership with Peace Building Development Consult (PBDC), provides a bold and timely answer: foresight.

Nigeria has been stuck in a cycle of crisis and reaction for too long, responding to emergencies with short-term patches rather than long-term vision. But the tide may be turning. A three-day senior leadership course on “Strategic Anticipation and Crisis Management,” hosted in Abuja, brought together over 70 senior leaders across sectors to explore a new leadership doctrine grounded in systems thinking, scenario planning, and proactive governance.

Dr. Garba Malumfashi of NIPSS set the tone: “Policymakers need foresight more than ever. We must manage and anticipate crises in this volatile, uncertain, complex, and ambiguous world.” This was not just another policy seminar. It was a call to overhaul Nigeria’s approach to leadership itself.

From Blind Spots to Scenario Thinking

The course delivered a clear message: crises are rarely sudden—they brew in ignored data, weak signals, and poor coordination. Anthony Kila, Director at the Commonwealth Institute, led participants through scenario planning exercises and foresight models. “The world is not waiting for Nigeria to catch up,” he said, urging leaders to stop reacting and start preparing.

He laid out seven pillars of resilient leadership, from strategic networking to performance-based thinking. Foresight, he argued, is not prediction but preparation. Scenario tools like PESTEL and SWOT are essential—not optional—for a country that wishes to survive and thrive in a rapidly changing global system.

Bridging Policy and Practice

What stood out most was the emphasis on institutional integration. Foresight cannot succeed as a one-off initiative; it must be embedded into governance, policymaking, and the bureaucracy. Dr. Malumfashi explained how early warning systems, horizon scanning, and the Delphi method can help governments move from crisis management to prevention.

He pointed out that national plans like Vision 2050 must be living documents—flexible enough to adapt to rapid technological, environmental, and geopolitical shifts. His recommendation? Forge alliances between NIPSS, think tanks, and foresight units across MDAs.

Human Security Starts with Information

PBDC’s Executive Director, Kayode Bolaji, made a compelling case for the centrality of risk communication in crisis response. “Crises rarely arrive like bolts from the blue,” he said. “They stem from ignored warnings and poor preparation.”

Citing COVID-19 and Hurricane Maria, Bolaji illustrated how misinformation, fear, and delayed communication exacerbate disaster impacts. He advocated for grassroots simulations, community-based early warning systems, and risk-informed governance. “Access to timely, trusted information is a lifeline,” he declared.

Security Beyond Guns

Nigeria’s security outlook also urgently needs recalibration. Dr. Kabir Adamu of Beacon Security Intelligence argued that guns and boots alone cannot confront today’s hybrid threats—from cyber warfare and climate shocks to pandemics and digital disinformation.

He introduced tools like backcasting, Enterprise Security Risk Management (ESRM), and data-driven forecasting. Foresight, he stressed, must become central to defence planning. Security institutions need interdisciplinary planners, AI integration, and youth engagement to prepare for the probable and the plausible.

Rural Blind Spots and Urban Oversight

Chris Ngwodo of the Office for Strategic Preparedness and Resilience (OSPRE) emphasised that insecurity often festers where development is absent. “Insecurity in Nigeria is predominantly a rural problem,” he said. “Rural abandonment creates a vacuum for conflict.”

He and retired Maj.-Gen. Adeyinka Famadewa echoed the need for decentralised foresight and scenario-based governance training that includes local governments, traditional leaders, and community networks.

Leadership Must Change Course

Prof. Ayo Omotayo, Director-General of NIPSS, closed the training with a sobering call: “Nothing will fall from the sky to solve our problems. It’s time to stop waiting for miracles and start acting.”

He called out policy inconsistency, public cynicism, and a lack of accountability. “Criticise with purpose—to build, not destroy,” he urged. The goal is to see the future and build the systems and leadership cultures that can meet it head-on.

What Comes Next?

Participants like Senator Iroegbu, CEO of CANAG Communications, and Eniola Ekubi of DEPOWA echoed a common sentiment: this was not just another training but a wake-up call. “This course gave me tools to anticipate and lead better,” said Ekubi.
Their reflections drive home a core truth: building national resilience starts with leaders who see further, think deeper, and act sooner.

Key Takeaways and Recommendations

The NIPSS training proves Nigeria can transition from reactive firefighting to strategic foresight—if it has the will. Foresight must be institutionalised as a leadership imperative, not a luxury.

Recommendations include:

•Establish foresight cells in all MDAs to support anticipatory policymaking.

•Integrate security and development policies to tackle the root causes of unrest.

•Include women, youth, civil society, and media in national foresight planning.

•Scale up foresight training at the federal, state, and local government levels.

  • Institutionalise foresight as part of NIPSS’s core leadership development curriculum, with mechanisms for tracking implementation.

The future will not wait for Nigeria to be ready. It is already arriving. Whether we lead or lag depends on our choices today—and the foresight we apply to tomorrow.

Nigeria Needs Foresight, Not Firefighting: Rethinking Crisis Leadership for a Fragile Future

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U.S. president orders deadly strikes against ISIS militants in northwest Nigeria

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U.S. president orders deadly strikes against ISIS militants in northwest Nigeria

By: Zagazola Makama

President Donald J. Trump announced that the United States had launched a powerful and deadly military strike against Islamic State (ISIS) terrorist targets in Nigeria, in response to what he described as ongoing attacks on primarily innocent Christians in the region.

In a post on his social media platform, Mr. Trump said the operation was conducted “at my direction as Commander in Chief” and targeted ISIS militants whom he accused of “viciously killing, primarily, innocent Christians, at levels not seen for many years, and even centuries.”

The president said he had previously warned the extremist group to halt attacks on Christians or face consequences, adding: “tonight, there was.”

Mr. Trump described the strikes as “numerous perfect strikes, as only the United States is capable of doing,” and reiterated that under his leadership the U.S. would not allow “Radical Islamic Terrorism to prosper.” He extended Christmas greetings to U.S. military forces and said there would be “many more” such strikes if the killing of Christians continued.

The announcement marks a significant escalation of U.S. military involvement in Nigeria’s complex security landscape. Western and Nigerian officials have long warned that militant groups such as ISIS’s West Africa Province (ISWAP) and Boko Haram pose a persistent threat in northern Nigeria, where attacks on civilians including Christians and Muslims alike have killed thousands over the past decade.

Reactions to the U.S. action are still emerging. The strikes come amid ongoing debates over Nigeria’s sovereignty and the best approach to combat extremist violence in West Africa. Previous statements by the Nigerian government welcomed U.S. assistance in fighting terrorism provided it respects the country’s territorial integrity.

The full military impact of the operation including casualties among militants or its implications for Nigeria’s internal security strategy has not yet been independently verified.
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VP Shettima: Borno Attack Will Not Break Nigeria’s Resolve

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VP Shettima: Borno Attack Will Not Break Nigeria’s Resolve

By: Our Reporter

Vice President Kashim Shettima has condemned in strong terms the bomb explosion that claimed about five lives and left several others injured at a Mosque in Gamboru Market, Maiduguri, Borno State, describing the attack as a despicable assault on innocent citizens and the peace of the nation.

The Vice President said President Bola Ahmed Tinubu has ordered an immediate intensification of security operations in Borno State following the incident.

In a statement on Thursday, the Vice President condemned the attack, assuring that the Federal Government is deploying additional tactical teams to the area to track down and apprehend those responsible for the terror attack.

“The Federal Government will not tolerate any attempt to undermine the peace and security of our nation. Our security agencies are working round the clock to ensure that the perpetrators of this heinous crime are brought to justice immediately,” he said.

Senator Shettima expressed confidence that the security architecture currently in place would not only apprehend the perpetrators but also unravel the full circumstances surrounding the incident.

“We sympathize with the Government of Borno State, residents, and families who have lost their loved ones in this attack. The Federal Government is confident that those responsible for this despicable act of terrorism will face the full weight of the law,” VP Shettima said.

He assured Nigerians that the Tinubu administration’s commitment to national security, anchored in constitutional duty, remains unwavering.

“Since President Bola Ahmed Tinubu assumed office in 2023, this administration has consistently reaffirmed its unyielding commitment to safeguarding the security, unity, and stability of our nation.

“This commitment remains steadfast under God and the Constitution of the Federal Republic of Nigeria. We will continue to provide our security agencies with all necessary resources and support to decisively defeat terrorism in all its forms,” he affirmed.

The Vice President added that the Federal Government is working closely with state authorities and local security agencies to ensure protection of vulnerable communities and critical infrastructure across the North East and other regions.

VP Shettima: Borno Attack Will Not Break Nigeria’s Resolve

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Zulum-“Protect Our Sacred Bond,” Celebrates Peaceful Year in Christmas Message

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Zulum-“Protect Our Sacred Bond,” Celebrates Peaceful Year in Christmas Message

By: Our Reporter

With profound gratitude to God for sparing our lives one full year to another Christmas celebration, Borno State Governor, Professor Babagana Umara Zulum felicitate with the Christian community across the state on the occasion of Christmas.

The Governor is currently engaged in a four-day security and resilience building tour across Northern Borno. The tour includes visits to military formations to boost their morale, and to communities affected by the insurgency, where he is working to build their confidence and provide tangible democratic benefits.

In a message by his Spokesperson Dauda Iliya, Governor Zulum expressed gratitude to God Almighty for the return of relative peace in the state.

“For us in Borno State, the period between the 2024 to the 2025 Christmas celebrations has been one full year of celebrating enviable all-encompassing reconstruction and recovery,” Zulum stated.

“The progress is not only in terms of physical infrastructure, but also in terms of the peace and forbearance, mutual goodwill and harmonious coexistence among the Muslim and Christian communities, which our beleaguered state very critically desires to launch itself back to prosperity and glorious past,” he added.

“I feel obliged to express my most heartfelt gratitude to God for enabling me to preside over the state one full year, witnessing a gladdening restoration and maintenance of these required peace, mutual goodwill and harmony between the the Muslim and Christian communities which bonded us tightly together as a solid people, but which the over a decade Boko Haram insurgency threatened to completely destroy.

“A noteworthy part of the Muslim-Christian harmonious coexistence and goodwill reconstruction and maintenance was my recent high-level consultation meeting with the leadership of Jama’atu Nasril Islam (JNI) and Christian Association of Nigeria (CAN), focused on strengthening collaborative efforts between the state government and religious bodies to combat the lingering threat of insecurity and foster lasting peace in Borno State.

“At that meeting, I underscored the critical role of religious leaders in promoting tolerance, unity and peace across the state because Borno, like many states, has unique and beautiful family composition dynamics.

“It is common to find under one roof, brothers and sisters, uncles and aunts, who profess different faiths. We share meals, we celebrate festivities and milestones, we grieve losses together, as one family, bound by blood and love that transcends religious labels. This is our reality.

“I stressed that our enviable strength emanates from this reality. I will still, therefore, stress that we must protect this sacred bond within our homes and allow it to define our individual, as well as intra- and cross-community engagements.

“In sustenance of my tradition of just, fair and equitable treatment of both communities in festive seasons, I have, also, this year, I announced support to the Christian community and non indigenes, which includes free transportation to non-indigenes to different parts of the country, humanitarian support to over 6,000 vulnerable Christians, cash gifts to widows and orphans, sponsorship of Christian pilgrimage and other interventions.

I am always disposed to rendering such support, and even more, whenever the need arises.

Governor Babagana Zulum urge every citizen of the state, irrespective of faith, to come together in the collective search for lasting security, peaceful and harmonious coexistence as the most-critical foundation for true reconstruction, recovery and prosperity.

Zulum-“Protect Our Sacred Bond,” Celebrates Peaceful Year in Christmas Message

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