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Nigeria Needs Foresight, Not Firefighting: Rethinking Crisis Leadership for a Fragile Future
Nigeria Needs Foresight, Not Firefighting: Rethinking Crisis Leadership for a Fragile Future
By Maureen Okpe
As Nigeria battles overlapping crises—from spiralling insecurity and economic instability to climate shocks and growing social unrest—the question is no longer whether we need change, but how urgently we need leaders who can think beyond tomorrow’s headlines. A recent initiative by the National Institute for Policy and Strategic Studies (NIPSS), in partnership with Peace Building Development Consult (PBDC), provides a bold and timely answer: foresight.
Nigeria has been stuck in a cycle of crisis and reaction for too long, responding to emergencies with short-term patches rather than long-term vision. But the tide may be turning. A three-day senior leadership course on “Strategic Anticipation and Crisis Management,” hosted in Abuja, brought together over 70 senior leaders across sectors to explore a new leadership doctrine grounded in systems thinking, scenario planning, and proactive governance.
Dr. Garba Malumfashi of NIPSS set the tone: “Policymakers need foresight more than ever. We must manage and anticipate crises in this volatile, uncertain, complex, and ambiguous world.” This was not just another policy seminar. It was a call to overhaul Nigeria’s approach to leadership itself.
From Blind Spots to Scenario Thinking
The course delivered a clear message: crises are rarely sudden—they brew in ignored data, weak signals, and poor coordination. Anthony Kila, Director at the Commonwealth Institute, led participants through scenario planning exercises and foresight models. “The world is not waiting for Nigeria to catch up,” he said, urging leaders to stop reacting and start preparing.
He laid out seven pillars of resilient leadership, from strategic networking to performance-based thinking. Foresight, he argued, is not prediction but preparation. Scenario tools like PESTEL and SWOT are essential—not optional—for a country that wishes to survive and thrive in a rapidly changing global system.
Bridging Policy and Practice
What stood out most was the emphasis on institutional integration. Foresight cannot succeed as a one-off initiative; it must be embedded into governance, policymaking, and the bureaucracy. Dr. Malumfashi explained how early warning systems, horizon scanning, and the Delphi method can help governments move from crisis management to prevention.
He pointed out that national plans like Vision 2050 must be living documents—flexible enough to adapt to rapid technological, environmental, and geopolitical shifts. His recommendation? Forge alliances between NIPSS, think tanks, and foresight units across MDAs.
Human Security Starts with Information
PBDC’s Executive Director, Kayode Bolaji, made a compelling case for the centrality of risk communication in crisis response. “Crises rarely arrive like bolts from the blue,” he said. “They stem from ignored warnings and poor preparation.”
Citing COVID-19 and Hurricane Maria, Bolaji illustrated how misinformation, fear, and delayed communication exacerbate disaster impacts. He advocated for grassroots simulations, community-based early warning systems, and risk-informed governance. “Access to timely, trusted information is a lifeline,” he declared.
Security Beyond Guns
Nigeria’s security outlook also urgently needs recalibration. Dr. Kabir Adamu of Beacon Security Intelligence argued that guns and boots alone cannot confront today’s hybrid threats—from cyber warfare and climate shocks to pandemics and digital disinformation.
He introduced tools like backcasting, Enterprise Security Risk Management (ESRM), and data-driven forecasting. Foresight, he stressed, must become central to defence planning. Security institutions need interdisciplinary planners, AI integration, and youth engagement to prepare for the probable and the plausible.
Rural Blind Spots and Urban Oversight
Chris Ngwodo of the Office for Strategic Preparedness and Resilience (OSPRE) emphasised that insecurity often festers where development is absent. “Insecurity in Nigeria is predominantly a rural problem,” he said. “Rural abandonment creates a vacuum for conflict.”
He and retired Maj.-Gen. Adeyinka Famadewa echoed the need for decentralised foresight and scenario-based governance training that includes local governments, traditional leaders, and community networks.
Leadership Must Change Course
Prof. Ayo Omotayo, Director-General of NIPSS, closed the training with a sobering call: “Nothing will fall from the sky to solve our problems. It’s time to stop waiting for miracles and start acting.”
He called out policy inconsistency, public cynicism, and a lack of accountability. “Criticise with purpose—to build, not destroy,” he urged. The goal is to see the future and build the systems and leadership cultures that can meet it head-on.
What Comes Next?
Participants like Senator Iroegbu, CEO of CANAG Communications, and Eniola Ekubi of DEPOWA echoed a common sentiment: this was not just another training but a wake-up call. “This course gave me tools to anticipate and lead better,” said Ekubi.
Their reflections drive home a core truth: building national resilience starts with leaders who see further, think deeper, and act sooner.
Key Takeaways and Recommendations
The NIPSS training proves Nigeria can transition from reactive firefighting to strategic foresight—if it has the will. Foresight must be institutionalised as a leadership imperative, not a luxury.
Recommendations include:
•Establish foresight cells in all MDAs to support anticipatory policymaking.
•Integrate security and development policies to tackle the root causes of unrest.
•Include women, youth, civil society, and media in national foresight planning.
•Scale up foresight training at the federal, state, and local government levels.
- Institutionalise foresight as part of NIPSS’s core leadership development curriculum, with mechanisms for tracking implementation.
The future will not wait for Nigeria to be ready. It is already arriving. Whether we lead or lag depends on our choices today—and the foresight we apply to tomorrow.
Nigeria Needs Foresight, Not Firefighting: Rethinking Crisis Leadership for a Fragile Future
UN@80: IPCR Says Charter Offers Guidance to Solving Terrorism, Violent Conflicts
By: Michael Mike
The Institute for Peace and Conflict Resolution (IPCR) has said the principles of the United Nations Charter offers guidance to Nigeria and other African countries bedeviled by terrorism and other violent conflicts.
The message was given by the Director-General of the Institute, Dr. Joseph Ochogwu to commemorate the 80th Anniversary of United Nations.
Ochogwu said: “Today, October 24, 2025, marks exactly 80 years since the entry into force of the United Nations Charter. As the world commemorates this historic milestone, we are reminded of the enduring vision of the Charter to save succeeding generations from the scourge of war, reaffirm faith in fundamental human rights, and promote social progress and better standards of life in larger freedom. This vision remains profoundly relevant to Africa and to Nigeria, where the pursuit of peace, justice, and inclusive development continues to shape our collective aspirations.
“In today’s complex and rapidly changing security environment, the principles of the Charter, namely sovereign equality, peaceful settlement of disputes, and respect for international law offer essential guidance. Across Africa, the persistence of violent conflicts, terrorism, and governance challenges underscores the urgent need to strengthen multilateral cooperation, preventive diplomacy, and mediation capacities. Nigeria’s leadership under President Bola Ahmed Tinubu and her experience in regional peacekeeping and conflict resolution affirm our commitment to these ideals and to the transformative role of international law in sustaining peace and security.
“The Institute for Peace and Conflict Resolution (IPCR) stands as a bridge between national policy and global peace initiatives. We reaffirm our partnership with the United Nations, the African Union, ECOWAS, and other stakeholders to promote dialogue, reconciliation, and institution-building. In this decade of action, we must deepen investments in peace infrastructure, youth empowerment, and cross-border cooperation to realize the aspirations of Agenda 2063 and the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development.”
He added that: “As we look to the future of the United Nations in Africa, the challenge before us is clear: to make peace sustainable, justice accessible, and security inclusive. The continued faith of Member States and communities in the principles of the UN Charter is an enduring source of hope for a more peaceful, secure, and prosperous continent.”
UN@80: IPCR Says Charter Offers Guidance to Solving Terrorism, Violent Conflicts
How Nigeria’s Ancient Storytelling Traditions Shape Modern Identity.
By Fathia Adenike
The heartbeat of Nigeria’s bustling cities and quiet villages lies ìtàn a Yoruba word meaning “story” or “history” a powerful force shaping cultural identity. Across Nigeria’s diverse ethnic landscapes Yoruba, Igbo, Hausa,and beyond. Storytelling isn’t just tradition; it’s a living bridge connecting past, present, and future.It’s an Oral Threads of Heritage,From moonlit Yoruba folktales whispering òrìṣà deeds to Igbo elders recounting ancestral proverbs, Nigeria’s oral traditions transmit values, wisdom, and belongings. These stories embed moral codes, communal bonds, and cosmological maps that ground Nigerians amid rapid change. Ancient myths seep into contemporary Nigerian life. Olókun’s oceanic power meets Lagos’ tech-driven streets; Ọṣun’s fertility echoes in art exploring feminine resilience. Writers like Chinua Achebe Things Fall Apart and Ben Okri The Famished Road weave such mythic threads into explorations of identity, disrupting colonial ruptures.
Today, Nigerian storytelling leaps into digital realms. Podcasts like “The Nairaland Podcast and Twitter threads” retelling folklore showcase ìtàn’s adaptability. Social media becomes a virtual àbù̀ (drumbeat), amplifying voices across Nigeria’s youthful diaspora.
Ìtàn fosters cultural resilience. As Nigeria navigates urbanization, migration, and tech disruption, these stories offer anchors. They articulate collective memory, mediate conflict, and nurture belonging across ethnic lines Igbo, Yoruba.
Hausa in a nation of profound diversity.In Nigeria’s mosaic, ìtàn remains a vital pulse reminding Nigerians, globally, of roots nourishing identity’s complex, beautiful branches. ìtàn remains an irreducible heartbeat reminding Nigerians globally of identity’s deep, branching roots nourishing complex beauty. As Nigeria braids tradition with cutting edge innovation, these stories transmute into luminescent beacons, diachronistic continuity. Resonating poignantly in diaspora conversations spanning oceans.
Echoing vibrantly in Nigeria’s creative expressions celebrating Ultimately, ìtàn transcends mere retrospection; it dynamically sculpts Nigeria’s unfolding narrative vectors. These andaren’t antiquarian tales; they’re heritage-infused blueprints propelling Nigeria’s stories into uncharted tomorrows narratives carrying ancestral essence into modernity’s unspooling scroll. ìtàn brings identity filaments, affirming storytelling as Nigeria’s quintessential cultural DNA.
How Nigeria’s Ancient Storytelling Traditions Shape Modern Identity
ShightVault X Èkó Runners Club: Running Through Lagos, Redefining African Performance Culture
LAGOS, NIGERIA – October 11, 2025 — Nigerian sportswear brand, ShightVault is making bold strides in redefining the culture of movement and style in Africa. The brand recently led a major collaboration with the Èkó Runners Club, hosting a vibrant community event themed “RUNWITHLAGOS” at The Finery, Ikoyi.
The activation brought together over 280 guests, including more than 140 runners who took part in a 5KM morning run through the heart of Lagos. The day unfolded into a full lifestyle experience, from yoga sessions and high-intensity training classes to ice baths, networking, food, drinks, and friendly competitions, blending wellness and urban culture in one energetic celebration.
At the center of it all was ShightVault, showcasing its limited-edition collaborative run-fit, a sleek performance line that sold out quickly at the venue.
Speaking at the event, Riches Efe Arhiakpore, Executive Director of ShightVault, described the collaboration as a reflection of the brand’s growing vision:
ShightVault is more than a sportswear label, it’s a movement. This collaboration with Èkó Runners Club represents how we want to connect fashion, fitness, and community. We’re open to working with more run clubs across the country and internationally as we expand our reach in both the sports and fashion industries.
The event was powered by key sponsors including KNGSMN, Pocari Sweat, ZoneX, Red Bull, and Glacee Table Water, alongside partners who helped deliver one of Lagos’ most engaging fitness activations of the year.
As ShightVault continues to grow beyond Nigeria’s borders, the brand is positioning itself as a global voice for African sportswear innovation, bridging performance, design, and cultural expression in every stride.
ShightVault X Èkó Runners Club: Running Through Lagos, Redefining African Performance Culture
UN@80: IPCR Says Charter Offers Guidance to Solving Terrorism, Violent Conflicts
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