Niger’s Withdrawal from MNJTF: A Looming Security Catastrophe

Niger’s Withdrawal from MNJTF: A Looming Security Catastrophe

By Zagazola Makama

As of March 30, 2025, Niger’s formal withdrawal from the Multinational Joint Task Force (MNJTF) has sent shockwaves through the security landscape of the Lake Chad Basin, raising alarms over the potential for increased instability and violence in the region. This decision, orchestrated by Niger’s ruling junta, not only destabilizes the existing counterterrorism framework but also poses grave implications for Niger itself, alongside its neighbors, Nigeria and Chad.

Niger’s exit from the MNJTF has left a significant security vacuum, particularly along its northeastern border with Nigeria. The loss of Sector 4, previously secured by Nigerien forces, creates an urgent vulnerability that could enable insurgent groups to exploit the weakened defenses. The porous border has long been a weak link in counterinsurgency efforts, and without Niger’s military presence, Boko Haram and ISWAP may find fertile ground to establish new operational bases, smuggle arms, and launch cross-border assaults.

Military sources in Maiduguri have already indicated heightened risks for border towns like Damasak and Goskeru, which have historically been targets of Boko Haram incursions. The absence of Nigerien forces, who previously acted as a buffer, significantly escalates the threat level, making these areas prime targets for renewed terrorist activity.

The implications of Niger’s withdrawal extend beyond border security; it exacerbates internal military strains and economic challenges. The Nigerien military, already stretched thin, will now face increased pressure to manage security on its own territory while simultaneously combating rising insurgent threats. This scenario could lead to a diversion of resources away from critical internal security operations, leaving the nation vulnerable to insurgent resurgence.

Moreover, the economic ramifications of this withdrawal cannot be understated. As Niger grapples with the fallout from increased violence, the strain on its already fragile economy will intensify. Humanitarian crises may worsen as displaced persons flood into Niger from neighboring conflict zones, further burdening relief efforts and straining resources.

Chad, a key player in the MNJTF, now faces additional pressures as it grapples with Niger’s exit. The Chadian military, already engaged in combating insurgents along its western front, must now contend with increased threats from Boko Haram factions operating in the Lake Chad islands. The diversion of military resources to address these new challenges could expose vulnerabilities in Chad’s other security operations, potentially destabilizing the entire region.

The logistical and coordination challenges posed by Niger’s withdrawal cannot be overlooked. Chad’s reliance on cross-border military coordination with Niger for intelligence-sharing and troop movements is now compromised, complicating its counterterrorism efforts. As military planners in N’Djamena scramble to adapt, the risk of operational failures looms large.

Niger’s withdrawal from the MNJTF signals a broader geopolitical realignment in the Sahel, raising concerns about its potential pivot toward new security partnerships, particularly with Russia. The junta’s distancing from Western allies and expulsion of French forces may pave the way for closer military cooperation with Moscow. This shift could further complicate regional counterterrorism efforts, as Niger deepens ties with Russian-backed mercenary groups, mirroring trends seen in Mali and Burkina Faso.

Such a realignment could jeopardize existing intelligence sharing frameworks and counterterrorism coordination among Niger, Nigeria, and Chad. The specter of increased Russian influence in the region adds another layer of complexity to an already volatile security landscape.

A Call to Action: Urgent Measures Needed

In light of these developments, it is imperative for Niger and its neighbors to take swift and decisive action to mitigate the looming security crisis. The remaining MNJTF members Nigeria and Chad must urgently restructure their military strategies to address the vacuum left by Niger’s withdrawal. This includes redistributing troops to bolster border defenses, deploying advanced surveillance technologies, and enhancing diplomatic efforts to maintain intelligence-sharing channels. If possible fill in the vacuum left by Niger Republic.

Failure to act decisively could allow insurgents to capitalize on the disruption, leading to a resurgence of violence that threatens not only Niger but the entire Lake Chad Basin. Already there has been massive recruitment by JNIM and increase presence of Lakurawa within the Nigerien borders.

The stakes have never been higher, and the time for action is now. Without effective measures to counter the rising tide of insecurity, the region risks slipping into a state of chaos, reversing years of progress against Boko Haram and ISWAP.

Conclusion

Niger’s withdrawal from the MNJTF marks a critical juncture in the fight against terrorism in the Lake Chad Basin. The implications for Niger are profound, as the nation faces the dual challenges of securing its borders and managing internal stability amidst rising insurgent threats. As regional leaders grapple with these challenges, the urgency for a cohesive and collaborative response has never been more pressing. Failure to fill the void left by Niger’s exit could plunge the region into deeper insecurity, with devastating consequences for millions.

Zagazola Makama is a Counter Insurgency Expert and Security Analyst in the Lake Chad Region

Niger’s Withdrawal from MNJTF: A Looming Security Catastrophe