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Niger’s Withdrawal from MNJTF: A Looming Security Catastrophe

Niger’s Withdrawal from MNJTF: A Looming Security Catastrophe
By Zagazola Makama
As of March 30, 2025, Niger’s formal withdrawal from the Multinational Joint Task Force (MNJTF) has sent shockwaves through the security landscape of the Lake Chad Basin, raising alarms over the potential for increased instability and violence in the region. This decision, orchestrated by Niger’s ruling junta, not only destabilizes the existing counterterrorism framework but also poses grave implications for Niger itself, alongside its neighbors, Nigeria and Chad.
Niger’s exit from the MNJTF has left a significant security vacuum, particularly along its northeastern border with Nigeria. The loss of Sector 4, previously secured by Nigerien forces, creates an urgent vulnerability that could enable insurgent groups to exploit the weakened defenses. The porous border has long been a weak link in counterinsurgency efforts, and without Niger’s military presence, Boko Haram and ISWAP may find fertile ground to establish new operational bases, smuggle arms, and launch cross-border assaults.
Military sources in Maiduguri have already indicated heightened risks for border towns like Damasak and Goskeru, which have historically been targets of Boko Haram incursions. The absence of Nigerien forces, who previously acted as a buffer, significantly escalates the threat level, making these areas prime targets for renewed terrorist activity.
The implications of Niger’s withdrawal extend beyond border security; it exacerbates internal military strains and economic challenges. The Nigerien military, already stretched thin, will now face increased pressure to manage security on its own territory while simultaneously combating rising insurgent threats. This scenario could lead to a diversion of resources away from critical internal security operations, leaving the nation vulnerable to insurgent resurgence.
Moreover, the economic ramifications of this withdrawal cannot be understated. As Niger grapples with the fallout from increased violence, the strain on its already fragile economy will intensify. Humanitarian crises may worsen as displaced persons flood into Niger from neighboring conflict zones, further burdening relief efforts and straining resources.
Chad, a key player in the MNJTF, now faces additional pressures as it grapples with Niger’s exit. The Chadian military, already engaged in combating insurgents along its western front, must now contend with increased threats from Boko Haram factions operating in the Lake Chad islands. The diversion of military resources to address these new challenges could expose vulnerabilities in Chad’s other security operations, potentially destabilizing the entire region.
The logistical and coordination challenges posed by Niger’s withdrawal cannot be overlooked. Chad’s reliance on cross-border military coordination with Niger for intelligence-sharing and troop movements is now compromised, complicating its counterterrorism efforts. As military planners in N’Djamena scramble to adapt, the risk of operational failures looms large.
Niger’s withdrawal from the MNJTF signals a broader geopolitical realignment in the Sahel, raising concerns about its potential pivot toward new security partnerships, particularly with Russia. The junta’s distancing from Western allies and expulsion of French forces may pave the way for closer military cooperation with Moscow. This shift could further complicate regional counterterrorism efforts, as Niger deepens ties with Russian-backed mercenary groups, mirroring trends seen in Mali and Burkina Faso.
Such a realignment could jeopardize existing intelligence sharing frameworks and counterterrorism coordination among Niger, Nigeria, and Chad. The specter of increased Russian influence in the region adds another layer of complexity to an already volatile security landscape.
A Call to Action: Urgent Measures Needed
In light of these developments, it is imperative for Niger and its neighbors to take swift and decisive action to mitigate the looming security crisis. The remaining MNJTF members Nigeria and Chad must urgently restructure their military strategies to address the vacuum left by Niger’s withdrawal. This includes redistributing troops to bolster border defenses, deploying advanced surveillance technologies, and enhancing diplomatic efforts to maintain intelligence-sharing channels. If possible fill in the vacuum left by Niger Republic.
Failure to act decisively could allow insurgents to capitalize on the disruption, leading to a resurgence of violence that threatens not only Niger but the entire Lake Chad Basin. Already there has been massive recruitment by JNIM and increase presence of Lakurawa within the Nigerien borders.
The stakes have never been higher, and the time for action is now. Without effective measures to counter the rising tide of insecurity, the region risks slipping into a state of chaos, reversing years of progress against Boko Haram and ISWAP.
Conclusion
Niger’s withdrawal from the MNJTF marks a critical juncture in the fight against terrorism in the Lake Chad Basin. The implications for Niger are profound, as the nation faces the dual challenges of securing its borders and managing internal stability amidst rising insurgent threats. As regional leaders grapple with these challenges, the urgency for a cohesive and collaborative response has never been more pressing. Failure to fill the void left by Niger’s exit could plunge the region into deeper insecurity, with devastating consequences for millions.
Zagazola Makama is a Counter Insurgency Expert and Security Analyst in the Lake Chad Region
Niger’s Withdrawal from MNJTF: A Looming Security Catastrophe
News
Group lauds Sen. Yari’s scholarship award to 2,055 vulnerable students

Group lauds Sen. Yari’s scholarship award to 2,055 vulnerable students
A group known as the Arewa Christian Youth Leadership Forum (ACYLF), has commended Sen. Abdul’aziz Yari for his commitment to education and human capital development, through the Yari Scholarship Initiative.
Mr Dunijir Gatama, the National Chairman of ACYLF, gave the commendation in a statement issued in Gombe on Monday.
He said the initiative had helped to boost access to education in the Northern Nigeria.
Gatama said that over N216 million had been disbursed under the initiative for the payment of tuition fees for 2,055 orphans and vulnerable students in one year.
He said the intervention was timely and visionary considering the challenges affecting school retention and the education sector in the region.
“This initiative is covering both public and private universities across 14 local government areas of Zamfara State.
“The initiative reflects the senator’s deep compassion and his unwavering belief in the power of education to change lives.
“ACYLF recognises education as the bedrock of any strong and prosperous nation.
“By granting equal access to tertiary education regardless of economic status, Yari is laying a foundation for a more just and empowered Northern Nigeria,” Gatama said.
He said that the monthly stipend of N15, 000 provided to each beneficiary, further demonstrated the holistic support embedded in the initiative.
He ACYLF chairman, therefore, called on other political leaders, philanthropists, and well-meaning elites across Northern Nigeria to emulate Yari’s exemplary gesture.
“At a time when many students face economic hardship and lack the means to access education, Yari’s initiative shines as a beacon of hope and leadership in action,” he said.
Gatama added that the association would continue to support leaders who prioritised the future of youths by amplifying noble efforts that promote equity, education, and sustainable development in the North and beyond.
Group lauds Sen. Yari’s scholarship award to 2,055 vulnerable students
News
Nigeria Needs Foresight, Not Firefighting: Rethinking Crisis Leadership for a Fragile Future

Nigeria Needs Foresight, Not Firefighting: Rethinking Crisis Leadership for a Fragile Future
By Maureen Okpe
As Nigeria battles overlapping crises—from spiralling insecurity and economic instability to climate shocks and growing social unrest—the question is no longer whether we need change, but how urgently we need leaders who can think beyond tomorrow’s headlines. A recent initiative by the National Institute for Policy and Strategic Studies (NIPSS), in partnership with Peace Building Development Consult (PBDC), provides a bold and timely answer: foresight.
Nigeria has been stuck in a cycle of crisis and reaction for too long, responding to emergencies with short-term patches rather than long-term vision. But the tide may be turning. A three-day senior leadership course on “Strategic Anticipation and Crisis Management,” hosted in Abuja, brought together over 70 senior leaders across sectors to explore a new leadership doctrine grounded in systems thinking, scenario planning, and proactive governance.

Dr. Garba Malumfashi of NIPSS set the tone: “Policymakers need foresight more than ever. We must manage and anticipate crises in this volatile, uncertain, complex, and ambiguous world.” This was not just another policy seminar. It was a call to overhaul Nigeria’s approach to leadership itself.
From Blind Spots to Scenario Thinking
The course delivered a clear message: crises are rarely sudden—they brew in ignored data, weak signals, and poor coordination. Anthony Kila, Director at the Commonwealth Institute, led participants through scenario planning exercises and foresight models. “The world is not waiting for Nigeria to catch up,” he said, urging leaders to stop reacting and start preparing.

He laid out seven pillars of resilient leadership, from strategic networking to performance-based thinking. Foresight, he argued, is not prediction but preparation. Scenario tools like PESTEL and SWOT are essential—not optional—for a country that wishes to survive and thrive in a rapidly changing global system.
Bridging Policy and Practice
What stood out most was the emphasis on institutional integration. Foresight cannot succeed as a one-off initiative; it must be embedded into governance, policymaking, and the bureaucracy. Dr. Malumfashi explained how early warning systems, horizon scanning, and the Delphi method can help governments move from crisis management to prevention.
He pointed out that national plans like Vision 2050 must be living documents—flexible enough to adapt to rapid technological, environmental, and geopolitical shifts. His recommendation? Forge alliances between NIPSS, think tanks, and foresight units across MDAs.

Human Security Starts with Information
PBDC’s Executive Director, Kayode Bolaji, made a compelling case for the centrality of risk communication in crisis response. “Crises rarely arrive like bolts from the blue,” he said. “They stem from ignored warnings and poor preparation.”
Citing COVID-19 and Hurricane Maria, Bolaji illustrated how misinformation, fear, and delayed communication exacerbate disaster impacts. He advocated for grassroots simulations, community-based early warning systems, and risk-informed governance. “Access to timely, trusted information is a lifeline,” he declared.
Security Beyond Guns
Nigeria’s security outlook also urgently needs recalibration. Dr. Kabir Adamu of Beacon Security Intelligence argued that guns and boots alone cannot confront today’s hybrid threats—from cyber warfare and climate shocks to pandemics and digital disinformation.
He introduced tools like backcasting, Enterprise Security Risk Management (ESRM), and data-driven forecasting. Foresight, he stressed, must become central to defence planning. Security institutions need interdisciplinary planners, AI integration, and youth engagement to prepare for the probable and the plausible.
Rural Blind Spots and Urban Oversight
Chris Ngwodo of the Office for Strategic Preparedness and Resilience (OSPRE) emphasised that insecurity often festers where development is absent. “Insecurity in Nigeria is predominantly a rural problem,” he said. “Rural abandonment creates a vacuum for conflict.”
He and retired Maj.-Gen. Adeyinka Famadewa echoed the need for decentralised foresight and scenario-based governance training that includes local governments, traditional leaders, and community networks.
Leadership Must Change Course
Prof. Ayo Omotayo, Director-General of NIPSS, closed the training with a sobering call: “Nothing will fall from the sky to solve our problems. It’s time to stop waiting for miracles and start acting.”
He called out policy inconsistency, public cynicism, and a lack of accountability. “Criticise with purpose—to build, not destroy,” he urged. The goal is to see the future and build the systems and leadership cultures that can meet it head-on.
What Comes Next?
Participants like Senator Iroegbu, CEO of CANAG Communications, and Eniola Ekubi of DEPOWA echoed a common sentiment: this was not just another training but a wake-up call. “This course gave me tools to anticipate and lead better,” said Ekubi.
Their reflections drive home a core truth: building national resilience starts with leaders who see further, think deeper, and act sooner.
Key Takeaways and Recommendations
The NIPSS training proves Nigeria can transition from reactive firefighting to strategic foresight—if it has the will. Foresight must be institutionalised as a leadership imperative, not a luxury.
Recommendations include:
•Establish foresight cells in all MDAs to support anticipatory policymaking.
•Integrate security and development policies to tackle the root causes of unrest.
•Include women, youth, civil society, and media in national foresight planning.
•Scale up foresight training at the federal, state, and local government levels.
- Institutionalise foresight as part of NIPSS’s core leadership development curriculum, with mechanisms for tracking implementation.
The future will not wait for Nigeria to be ready. It is already arriving. Whether we lead or lag depends on our choices today—and the foresight we apply to tomorrow.
Nigeria Needs Foresight, Not Firefighting: Rethinking Crisis Leadership for a Fragile Future
News
Nine passengers perish in Ghastly vehicular crash on Maiduguri Damaturu road

Nine passengers perish in Ghastly vehicular crash on Maiduguri Damaturu road
By: Bodunrin Kayode
Nine passengers have died on the spot after their vehicle a Borno Express commercial bus heading to Maiduguri crossed its lane recently to collide with an on coming heavy duty vehicle headed for Damaturu.
The devastating crash occurred at Auno community area on Friday, at about 1530 hrs said the Federal Road Safety Corp (FRSC) Commander Usman Mohammed.
The Sector Commander told this reporter that while eight of the commuters died on the spot, one died in the specialist hospital obviously after profuse bleeding making the total casualties to be nine which is the highest figure for this year in Borno state.
“The breakdown of the crash was the loss of Five adult Males, one adult female,, Two boys and One girl child not beyond the age of about 10.” Said the commander.
The sector commander noted that out of the total number of passengers in the hummer bus, seven others sustained various injuries and were rushed to the Maiduguri specialist hospital for treatment.
“The crash involved two vehicles a Toyota Hummer bus belonging to Borno Express carrying loads of papers possibly for a non governmental organization from Kaduna and a commercial Trailer heading towards Yobe.
“The hummer bus had stopped at Potiskum to drop some passengers he had from Kaduna and took another set for Maiduguri which was his ultimate destination with the cargo.
” The obvious cause of the crash is attributed to over speeding which resulted into loss of control which took him to the wrong lane.
” Sadly, you know that Auno is a dangerous zone on that route which is why many commuters refused to stop on the way to help them even after eight passengers died on the spot while the ninth one perished in the maiduguri Specialist hospital.
“This is the worse crash we have had this year unlike what we had early this year at Beneshek in which four people lost their lives on the spot.
“Our thoughts and condolences go out to the families and loved ones of the deceased. The motoring public are urged to exercise caution on the road while traveling.” Said commander Musa Adamu.
Nine passengers perish in Ghastly vehicular crash on Maiduguri Damaturu road
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