Political turmoil in Madagascar, Cameroon underscores rising threat to democracy in Africa

By: Zagazola Makama

The recent coup in Madagascar and the disputed presidential election in Cameroon have once again drawn global attention to the growing fragility of democracy across Africa, amid worsening governance crises, corruption, and insecurity.

In Madagascar, soldiers of the elite Corps d’Administration des Personnel et des Services des Armées Terrestres (CAPSAT) on Oct. 11 staged a coup in the capital, Antananarivo, toppling President Andry Rajoelina’s government after weeks of military defections and anti-government protests.

The mutiny, led by Colonel Michael Randriannirina, followed mounting grievances over corruption, poor governance, and the lack of essential public services such as electricity and potable water. CAPSAT had previously played a decisive role in the 2009 coup that first brought Rajoelina to power.

Reports indicate that the president fled the country aboard a French military plane and has since released a statement claiming he remains the legitimate leader of Madagascar.

In the aftermath, the country’s top court ordered the junta to organize elections within 60 days. However, the new military leadership has announced plans to remain in power for two years before holding fresh polls, a move that has heightened tensions and uncertainty.

The international community has reacted cautiously. The African Union and Western governments have called for restraint and the immediate restoration of constitutional order. France, the former colonial power, has suspended all flights to Madagascar, while the United States advised its citizens to shelter in place. The United Nations has also expressed deep concern, urging respect for democracy and human rights.

Meanwhile, in Cameroon, political tension has escalated following the Oct. 12 presidential election, in which President Paul Biya, 92, sought an eighth term in office.

The main opposition candidate has declared victory and urged Biya to concede defeat “in the interest of truth and democracy.” However, the government has cautioned that only the Constitutional Council has the authority to announce official results.

Minister of Territorial Administration Paul Atanga Nji warned that any unauthorized declaration of results would amount to treason.

The election, observers say, has been marred by reports of irregularities, vote-buying, and intimidation. The ruling Cameroon People’s Democratic Movement (RDPC) continues to dominate the political landscape, having won all 70 senatorial seats in the March 2025 elections.

The opposition has accused the government of manipulating the electoral process, while insecurity persists in the Anglophone regions, where government forces and separatists continue to clash. The ongoing conflict has led to widespread displacement, restricted civil society activity, and human rights violations.

Analysts say the unfolding crises in Madagascar and Cameroon underscore a broader continental challenge, the steady erosion of democratic norms and resurgence of military interventions in Africa.

“The lack of a unified and firm response to coups has emboldened would-be coup leaders across the continent,” one regional security analyst told Zagazola.

Madagascar now joins a growing list of African nations under military rule, including Niger, Mali, Burkina Faso, Guinea, Chad, and Sudan. Experts warn that this trend threatens to undo decades of democratic progress and could destabilize already fragile regions.

“The combination of corruption, bad governance, and economic hardship has created a fertile ground for military intervention,” another observer noted, adding that militaries often justify coups as efforts to “restore stability” but tend to prolong transitions indefinitely.

External influences, including geopolitical rivalries and inconsistent responses from international organizations, have further complicated efforts to safeguard democratic governance.

The twin crises in Madagascar and Cameroon highlight the urgent need for African leaders to strengthen governance systems, promote accountability, and improve service delivery to regain public trust.

Failure to address these underlying issues, experts warn, could trigger further unrest, protests, or even coups in other parts of the continent.

“The future of democracy in countries like Madagascar and Cameroon hangs in the balance,” an African Union diplomat told Zagazola. “Without decisive leadership, these nations risk sliding deeper into instability.”

The African Union, regional blocs, and international partners are now under pressure to take coordinated action to deter future coups and support credible democratic transitions.

Africa’s path to stability depends on transparent governance, respect for the rule of law, and inclusive development, the true foundations of peace and democratic resilience.

Political turmoil in Madagascar, Cameroon underscores rising threat to democracy in Africa