Politics
Reconfiguring Nigeria’s 2027 Elections: Zoning, Coalition Politics and the Battle for the Presidency
Reconfiguring Nigeria’s 2027 Elections: Zoning, Coalition Politics and the Battle for the Presidency
By: Austin Aigbe
Policy and Strategy Expert
Abuja – can be reached: aigbeomoruyi@mail.com
As Nigeria heads to the 2027 general elections, the political environment offers a dynamic and diverse contest that can inspire hope and engagement among pundits interested in shaping the country’s democracy. At the centre of the 2027 contest stands President Bola Tinubu of the All Progressives Congress (APC) and the established power of incumbency.
Challenging him is Peter Obi, now repositioned under the Nigeria Democratic Congress (NDC), with a strong alliance with Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso, an arrangement increasingly described by supporters as the “OK Movement” (Obi–Kwankwaso).
Meanwhile, Atiku Abubakar, of the African Democratic Congress (ADC), continues to insist that only a Northern candidate possesses the electoral arithmetic to defeat Tinubu.
Alongside these heavyweights is Seyi Makinde, who announced his debut under the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) – Alliance for Progressive Movement (APM) partnership, introducing a younger technocratic alternative seeking to transcend traditional elite politics.
Adding yet another layer of intrigue is recurring speculation surrounding a possible return of former President Goodluck Jonathan as a consensus or stabilising candidate in a deeply polarised political atmosphere. Together, these developments are reshaping the 2027 elections into more than a contest for power.
They represent a broader national argument about zoning, competence, generational transition, inclusion, and the future architecture of democracy.
Bola Tinubu and his strong political machinery instil confidence about the prospects of stability and continuity in leadership. His broad political reach and entrenched alliances suggest a resilient foundation for his campaign.
The president’s supporters argue that his administration inherited deep structural economic distortions and that difficult reforms, i.e, the removal of fuel subsidy and the floating of the Naira, were unavoidable if the country were to avoid long-term fiscal collapse.
For the APC, 2027 will likely be framed as a choice between continuity and uncertainty. The party’s central message may be that reforms require time and political stability to mature into measurable national gains. The president’s strongest political asset remains his ability to build coalitions across regional and ideological divides. His influence in the South West remains substantial, while the APC continues to maintain significant structures across the North.
The Tinubu administration faces mounting pressure from worsening economic hardship, inflation, insecurity, and declining purchasing power. While many Nigerians acknowledge the necessity of reform, public frustration increasingly centres on the social consequences of those reforms.
No doubt, Tinubu’s re-election campaign may ultimately depend on whether voters perceive sufficient economic recovery before 2027. The zoning debate further muddies.
Traditionally, many political stakeholders expect a Southern president to complete two terms before power rotates Northward. Tinubu’s supporters may therefore campaign against Atiku that altering the arrangements in 2027 would violate the spirit of political balance underpinning Nigeria’s informal rotational plan.
Among opposition formations, the alliance between Mr Peter Obi and Engr. Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso, on the platform of the NDC, is significant because it could reshape the electoral landscape and challenge the status quo. The “OK Movement” carries significant symbolic and electoral implications.
Obi brings substantial urban youth support, middle-class reformist energy, and the enduring momentum of the civic mobilisation and the Obedient Movement observed during the 2023 elections. Kwankwaso, on the other hand, brings grassroots Northern political structures, deep influence in Kano and parts of the North West, and an established populist network through the Kwankwasiyya movement.
The Obi–Kwankwaso alliance may address one of the major criticisms of Obi’s 2023 campaign: limited penetration in the core Northern voting blocs. With Kwankwaso as an ally, the ticket could potentially build a bridge between Southern reformist enthusiasm and Northern populist mobilisation. Supporters of the movement argue that it represents a new national identity built around inclusion, generational transition, and institutional reform rather than traditional elite patronage.
The movement may especially appeal to younger Nigerians frustrated with the dominance of longstanding political establishments. But challenges remain. Critics argue that managing the ideological and strategic ambitions of both camps could prove difficult. Questions also persist, whether online enthusiasm can positively translate into nationwide electoral structures capable of competing against the APC’s entrenched machinery, as it is said locally, there are no polling units on social media.
Former vice-president, Atiku Abubakar, approaches 2027 with a strategic focus, asserting that only a Northern candidate has the electoral strength to defeat Tinubu and unify key voting blocs. This argument reflects both demographic realities and longstanding patterns within Nigerian electoral politics.
Northern voting strength remains essential to presidential victory calculations, and Atiku’s supporters believe that fragmenting Northern political influence would merely strengthen Tinubu’s path to re-election. From this perspective, Atiku presents himself not simply as a candidate but as a pragmatic electoral solution. His extensive political network, cross-regional alliances, and decades of national visibility continue to make him a formidable political figure.
However, critics contend that insisting on a Northern presidency after only one Southern term risks undermining the spirit of zoning and reinforcing perceptions of political entitlement. Many Southern stakeholders would likely view such a move as an attempt to prematurely reverse the rotational balance that has helped stabilise the nation’s democracy since 1999. His argument that the North has served for a limited term since then does not hold water if he backdates the argument to 1960 (from independence).
Added to this, Atiku’s repeated presidential ambitions may reinforce voter fatigue, especially among Nigerians seeking generational renewal and ideological revolution rather than familiar elite contentions.
Still, dismissing Atiku would be politically unwise. Nigerian elections are often won not only through popularity, but through identity politics, coalition management, elite negotiation, and organisational reach, all areas where Atiku remains highly competitive.
Governor Seyi Makinde and the Technocratic Recalibration. The emergence of Seyi Makinde under the PDP–APM alliance introduces another compelling dimension to the 2027 contest.
Unlike many traditional political heavyweights, Makinde increasingly projects himself as a governance-oriented technocrat seeking to reposition politics around competence, innovation, and administrative credibility. His supporters point to his governance record in Oyo State, his relatively moderate political style, and his appeal among younger professionals and reform-minded voters. More importantly, Makinde’s candidacy directly challenges Nigeria’s conventional zoning assumptions. Traditionally, the expectation remains that presidential power should rotate North after the completion of a Southern presidency in 2031.
However, Makinde’s emergence complicates this arithmetic by arguing, implicitly and explicitly, that governance performance should matter as much as geography. In this sense, Makinde represents a broader intellectual shift within Nigerian politics: the gradual movement from “whose turn is it?” toward “who can govern effectively?” His candidacy may therefore resonate with younger voters increasingly frustrated by elite rotational bargains that have not necessarily produced accountable governance.
Nevertheless, Makinde’s challenge remains structural. National elections require deep grassroots networks, extensive funding, and broad political alliances. While his technocratic image strengthens his credibility, transforming state-level popularity into nationwide electoral viability remains a difficult undertaking.
The Goodluck Jonathan Question: Consensus or Political Nostalgia? Recurring speculation surrounding Goodluck Jonathan reflects the growing uncertainty within Nigeria’s political landscape.
Though Jonathan has not formally declared interest, discussions around his possible return reveal broader anxieties about political stability, national cohesion, and the search for a less polarising figure. Former President Jonathan’s democratic credentials remain significantly strengthened by his peaceful concession of power in 2015, widely regarded as one of the most important moments in Nigeria’s democratic history.
Supporters therefore view him as a stabilising statesman capable of calming political tensions and rebuilding elite consensus. Jonathan, with one more term, appeals to the zoning debates. Jonathan’s candidacy resonates with President John Mahama of Ghana, who returned after eight years and won.
The 2027 presidential election is gradually transforming into one of the most significant democratic contests in the country’s modern history. More than a battle between parties, it represents competing visions of national identity, governance, inclusion, and democratic evolution.
Bola Ahmed Tinubu offers continuity, institutional stability, and incumbency. Peter Obi and Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso present a reformist coalition seeking to bridge generational and regional divides through the OK Movement. Atiku Abubakar advances a strategy rooted in Northern electoral arithmetic and coalition politics. Seyi Makinde embodies technocratic recalibration and merit-based leadership.
Goodluck Jonathan reflects the appeal of consensus and national reconciliation in uncertain times.
Will the 2027 election be a three, four or five-horse race?
Reconfiguring Nigeria’s 2027 Elections: Zoning, Coalition Politics and the Battle for the Presidency
Yobe: APC guber candidate speaks on Buni’s confidence in him
By: Yahaya Wakili
The Yobe State All Progressives Congress (APC) gubernatorial candidate, Alhaji Baba Mallam Wali Fcan, mni, has revealed that His Excellency Governor Mai Mala Buni CON’s confidence in him over the years had afforded him the opportunity to serve the state as secretary to the state government for seven years.
Baba Mallam Wali mni disclosed this today when a delegation of critical stakeholders of the All Progressives Congress (APC) from the Gujba local government area paid him a congratulatory visit in Damaturu, the state capital.
He expressed profound appreciation for the visit, adding that this overwhelming visit shows solidarity and confidence in his candidacy.
According to Mallam Wali, Governor Mai Mala Buni’s confidence in him over the years had afforded him the opportunity to serve the state as secretary to the state government for seven years.
He assured the stakeholders that he would provide inclusive and participatory leadership by carrying every citizen along irrespective of political, social, or regional affiliations.
The acting secretary to the state government, who is also the son of the soil, Dr. Mohammed Goje, leading the delegation, described Alhaji Baba Mallam Wali as a seasoned administrator and accomplished public servant.
“The emergence of Mallam Wali was a well-deserved recognition of his competence, integrity, and commitment to the development of Yobe State to a greater height,” Dr. Goje said.
He assured the candidate of the continued support, loyalty, and commitment of the people of the Gujba local government area, noting that we would remain steadfast in our support for the APC and its candidate in the 2027 general elections.
Yobe: APC guber candidate speaks on Buni’s confidence in him
Politics
VP Shettima’s Invest Lagos Summit: A contest of narratives on both the Dangote and Abdulsamad empires.
VP Shettima’s Invest Lagos Summit: A contest of narratives on both the Dangote and Abdulsamad empires.
By: Dr James Bwala
Vice President Kashim Shettima’s recent statement at the Invest Lagos Summit, which sparked significant controversy and backlash from various quarters, particularly regarding his remarks about Africa’s richest men, Aliko Dangote and Abdul Samad Rabiu. The vice president asserted that Lagos, not Kano, produced these business magnates, a comment that many interpreted as dismissive of Kano’s historical commercial significance. However, this reaction stems largely from a misinterpretation of Shettima’s words and an overlooking of the broader context in which his remarks were made. It is crucial to understand and defend the vice president’s statement, recognising the economic dynamics at play and the positive intent behind his message.
Vice President Shettima’s assertion that Lagos produced Africa’s richest men was not intended as an erasure of Kano’s rich commercial heritage or an undervaluing of the northern roots of these business icons. Instead, it was a contextual observation highlighting Lagos as the continent’s economic powerhouse and a pivotal hub where business ideas are scaled and transformed into thriving enterprises. Lagos is Africa’s largest sub-national economy, characterised by its vibrant market activities, infrastructural advantages, business-friendly policies, and an environment conducive to private sector growth. This city has historically served as a furnace where entrepreneurial ambitions find fertile ground to flourish and expand. Shettima’s point was that while the initial entrepreneurial instincts and businesses may have originated elsewhere, including Kano, it is within Lagos that these ventures matured into the colossal economic entities they are today.
READ ALSO: https://newsng.ng/radical-approach-ways-of-ending-the-menace-of-insecurity-in-nigeria/
The backlash, particularly from northern commentators and traditional leaders like Emir Muhammadu Sanusi II of Kano, reflects a common regional sensitivity towards identity and recognition. The Emir’s response centred on Kano’s longstanding reputation as a “centre of commerce”, emphasising the city’s role in shaping fundamental entrepreneurial skills and traditions inherited by figures like Dangote and Rabiu. While this perspective honours Kano’s historic significance, it inadvertently overlooks the nuance in Shettima’s statement—that the vice president did not deny Kano’s foundational influence but instead underscored Lagos’s role in providing a strategic platform for growth and scaling operations. The criticism arises from conflating birthplace or origin with the locus of economic success. Recognising Lagos as the city where these businesses “came to the limelight” is not a negation of their roots but an acknowledgement of pragmatic economic realities.
Shettima’s remarks must be viewed through the lens of economic pragmatism rather than political rivalry or regional contestation. Lagos has been, and remains, Nigeria’s commercial nerve centre and a critical node in Africa’s trade and investment networks. Its infrastructure, regulatory frameworks, access to ports, financial markets, and international connectivity create unique advantages that entrepreneurs can leverage to multiply their wealth and impact. Both Aliko Dangote and Abdul Samad Rabiu have attested to the enabling environment provided by Lagos State governments, which implemented policies fostering private-sector investments surpassing $30 billion. These acknowledgements underscore the integral role Lagos played in their skyrocketing success, validating Shettima’s emphasis on Lagos’s contributions without negating Kano’s entrepreneurial legacy.
READ ALSO: https://newsng.ng/radical-approach-ways-of-ending-the-menace-of-insecurity-in-nigeria/
It is also imperative to contextualise the timing and nature of the criticism directed at the vice president. Notably, some individuals and groups who vociferously objected to Shettima’s Lagos-centric remarks had remained conspicuously silent during other contentious moments, such as when the vice president defended the Dangote Refinery amid an industrial dispute with the Petroleum and Natural Gas Senior Staff Association of Nigeria (PENGASSAN) in late 2025. During that dispute, Shettima described Dangote as an “institution” deserving protection, a stance that drew criticism from labour unions but highlighted his consistent recognition of the vital role played by business leaders in Nigeria’s economic fabric. This selective outrage suggests that the current backlash is less about objective critique and more about entrenched regional loyalties or political manoeuvring as learnt in political communications.
The misrepresentation of Kashim Shettima’s position reveals a broader challenge in Nigerian public discourse—a tendency to pre-emptively judge and politicise statements without engaging with their substance or intent. The eagerness to attack the vice president before fully understanding the context exemplifies a mindset that undermines balanced evaluation and constructive debate. Instead of appreciating the VP’s highlighting of Lagos as an epicentre of enterprise and resilience, detractors have chosen to ignite divisive sentiments that distract from economic cooperation and national unity. This pattern of reaction fuels unnecessary regional tensions, which ultimately hinder the country’s collective progress.
READ ALSO: https://newsng.ng/radical-approach-ways-of-ending-the-menace-of-insecurity-in-nigeria/
From a professional standpoint, it is essential to champion nuanced communication and responsible leadership. Vice President Shettima’s remarks align with an economic truth that transcends parochial interests: that success in business often requires not just ingenuity and grit but access to supportive environments where ideas can scale. Nurturing such hubs—like Lagos—is vital for Nigeria’s sustained development and global competitiveness. Recognising and celebrating Lagos’s role, therefore, should not be viewed as an affront to other regions but as a call to replicate such enabling conditions nationwide. Every region, including Kano, must strive to provide similar platforms to nurture and propel their homegrown talents and enterprises.
Vice President Kashim Shettima’s comments at the Invest Lagos Summit were a factual, context-driven affirmation of Lagos’s status as Africa’s premier economic hub, where entrepreneurial ventures achieve their full potential. His statement was neither dismissive of Kano’s historic commercial contributions nor an attempt to diminish the foundational roles played by northern business traditions. Instead, it was a candid recognition of Lagos’s unique capacity to nurture and elevate business successes on an unprecedented scale. The vehement backlash—fueled by misinterpretation and regional sensitivities—serves as a reminder of the need for careful listening, thoughtful analysis, and avoidance of partisan attacks in national conversations. As Nigerians, we can foster unity and propel the country towards inclusive prosperity by embracing diverse pathways to success and acknowledging the layered realities of economic growth. Future critiques should engage constructively with leaders’ insights, considering both intent and context before passing judgements. Only through such mature discourse can Nigeria harness its full economic potential and build a harmonious, thriving society.
* James Bwala, PhD, writes from Abuja.
VP Shettima’s Invest Lagos Summit: A contest of narratives on both the Dangote and Abdulsamad empires.
Forum condemns abusive language on Atiku
North-East Elders and Youth Forum, Adamawa Chapter has strongly rejected and condemned the abusive language attributed to the former Vice President Atiku Abubakar by the former Secretary to the Government of the Federation (SGF), Mr Babachir Lawal.
Hamza Sa’ad Dasin, the National Leader of the forum stated this during a press briefing in Yola that Lawal accused Atiku Abubakar of manipulating the recent ADC primary election results while describing him as a religious and tribal bigot.
“Well, that’s not the problem, because leaving or staying with the party remains his absolute right; the most alarming and worrisome approach by the former SGF was his utterances against the Former Vice President.
“Accusing him of being religious and tribal bigot, and even went further to calling him KACHALLA, which connotes direct linkage with banditry”, he said.
He said, Atiku Abubakar, socially and politically remains the symbol of unity Nigeria as he married from South West, South-East and North-East “So he is symbolically democratic even in his own house”.
Dasin further said that Atiku has a very large heart that accommodates all irrespective of religious, tribal or sectional inclinations.
“This can be ascertained by looking at the people surrounding him. He is a believer of cultural multiplicity.
“When Boko Haram entered Mubi in Adamawa State, Atiku used his personal resources to bring in hunters and traditional fighters from different parts of northern Nigeria to come and assist.
“And they eventually succeeded in driving them away, killing a large number of them. This is to tell you that Atiku has never, can never and will never be a supporter of banditry, so count him out of being a KACHALLA”, he said.
He further explained that Atiku is a well recognized Political Guru, not only in Nigeria but in the world.
“He is considered one of the best politicians in Africa and the world”, he said.
Forum condemns abusive language on Atiku
The ‘Hyenas’ and The Fear of Radical Changes
Parliamentarians in Sierra Leone mourn colleague Lucinda Kelly
Troops Neutralise Suspected Kidnapper While Attempting Escape in Plateau
Roger Federer’s Shock as DNA Results Reveal Myla and Charlene Are Not His Biological Children
THE PLIGHT OF FARIDA
FAILED COUP IN BURKINA FASO: HOW TRAORÉ NARROWLY ESCAPED ASSASSINATION PLOT AMID FOREIGN INTERFERENCE CLAIMS
-
News2 years agoRoger Federer’s Shock as DNA Results Reveal Myla and Charlene Are Not His Biological Children
-
Opinions4 years ago
THE PLIGHT OF FARIDA
-
News1 year agoFAILED COUP IN BURKINA FASO: HOW TRAORÉ NARROWLY ESCAPED ASSASSINATION PLOT AMID FOREIGN INTERFERENCE CLAIMS
-
News2 years agoEYN: Rev. Billi, Distortion of History, and The Living Tamarind Tree
-
Opinions4 years agoPOLICE CHARGE ROOMS, A MINTING PRESS
-
ACADEMICS2 years agoA History of Biu” (2015) and The Lingering Bura-Pabir Question (1)
-
Columns2 years agoArmy University Biu: There is certain interest, but certainly not from Borno.
-
Politics1 year ago2027: Why Hon. Midala Balami Must Go, as Youths in Hawul and Asikira/Uba Federal Constituency Reject ₦500,000 as Sallah Gift
