Politics
Reconfiguring Nigeria’s 2027 Elections: Zoning, Coalition Politics and the Battle for the Presidency
Reconfiguring Nigeria’s 2027 Elections: Zoning, Coalition Politics and the Battle for the Presidency
By: Austin Aigbe
Policy and Strategy Expert
Abuja – can be reached: aigbeomoruyi@mail.com
As Nigeria heads to the 2027 general elections, the political environment offers a dynamic and diverse contest that can inspire hope and engagement among pundits interested in shaping the country’s democracy. At the centre of the 2027 contest stands President Bola Tinubu of the All Progressives Congress (APC) and the established power of incumbency.
Challenging him is Peter Obi, now repositioned under the Nigeria Democratic Congress (NDC), with a strong alliance with Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso, an arrangement increasingly described by supporters as the “OK Movement” (Obi–Kwankwaso).
Meanwhile, Atiku Abubakar, of the African Democratic Congress (ADC), continues to insist that only a Northern candidate possesses the electoral arithmetic to defeat Tinubu.
Alongside these heavyweights is Seyi Makinde, who announced his debut under the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) – Alliance for Progressive Movement (APM) partnership, introducing a younger technocratic alternative seeking to transcend traditional elite politics.
Adding yet another layer of intrigue is recurring speculation surrounding a possible return of former President Goodluck Jonathan as a consensus or stabilising candidate in a deeply polarised political atmosphere. Together, these developments are reshaping the 2027 elections into more than a contest for power.
They represent a broader national argument about zoning, competence, generational transition, inclusion, and the future architecture of democracy.
Bola Tinubu and his strong political machinery instil confidence about the prospects of stability and continuity in leadership. His broad political reach and entrenched alliances suggest a resilient foundation for his campaign.
The president’s supporters argue that his administration inherited deep structural economic distortions and that difficult reforms, i.e, the removal of fuel subsidy and the floating of the Naira, were unavoidable if the country were to avoid long-term fiscal collapse.
For the APC, 2027 will likely be framed as a choice between continuity and uncertainty. The party’s central message may be that reforms require time and political stability to mature into measurable national gains. The president’s strongest political asset remains his ability to build coalitions across regional and ideological divides. His influence in the South West remains substantial, while the APC continues to maintain significant structures across the North.
The Tinubu administration faces mounting pressure from worsening economic hardship, inflation, insecurity, and declining purchasing power. While many Nigerians acknowledge the necessity of reform, public frustration increasingly centres on the social consequences of those reforms.
No doubt, Tinubu’s re-election campaign may ultimately depend on whether voters perceive sufficient economic recovery before 2027. The zoning debate further muddies.
Traditionally, many political stakeholders expect a Southern president to complete two terms before power rotates Northward. Tinubu’s supporters may therefore campaign against Atiku that altering the arrangements in 2027 would violate the spirit of political balance underpinning Nigeria’s informal rotational plan.
Among opposition formations, the alliance between Mr Peter Obi and Engr. Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso, on the platform of the NDC, is significant because it could reshape the electoral landscape and challenge the status quo. The “OK Movement” carries significant symbolic and electoral implications.
Obi brings substantial urban youth support, middle-class reformist energy, and the enduring momentum of the civic mobilisation and the Obedient Movement observed during the 2023 elections. Kwankwaso, on the other hand, brings grassroots Northern political structures, deep influence in Kano and parts of the North West, and an established populist network through the Kwankwasiyya movement.
The Obi–Kwankwaso alliance may address one of the major criticisms of Obi’s 2023 campaign: limited penetration in the core Northern voting blocs. With Kwankwaso as an ally, the ticket could potentially build a bridge between Southern reformist enthusiasm and Northern populist mobilisation. Supporters of the movement argue that it represents a new national identity built around inclusion, generational transition, and institutional reform rather than traditional elite patronage.
The movement may especially appeal to younger Nigerians frustrated with the dominance of longstanding political establishments. But challenges remain. Critics argue that managing the ideological and strategic ambitions of both camps could prove difficult. Questions also persist, whether online enthusiasm can positively translate into nationwide electoral structures capable of competing against the APC’s entrenched machinery, as it is said locally, there are no polling units on social media.
Former vice-president, Atiku Abubakar, approaches 2027 with a strategic focus, asserting that only a Northern candidate has the electoral strength to defeat Tinubu and unify key voting blocs. This argument reflects both demographic realities and longstanding patterns within Nigerian electoral politics.
Northern voting strength remains essential to presidential victory calculations, and Atiku’s supporters believe that fragmenting Northern political influence would merely strengthen Tinubu’s path to re-election. From this perspective, Atiku presents himself not simply as a candidate but as a pragmatic electoral solution. His extensive political network, cross-regional alliances, and decades of national visibility continue to make him a formidable political figure.
However, critics contend that insisting on a Northern presidency after only one Southern term risks undermining the spirit of zoning and reinforcing perceptions of political entitlement. Many Southern stakeholders would likely view such a move as an attempt to prematurely reverse the rotational balance that has helped stabilise the nation’s democracy since 1999. His argument that the North has served for a limited term since then does not hold water if he backdates the argument to 1960 (from independence).
Added to this, Atiku’s repeated presidential ambitions may reinforce voter fatigue, especially among Nigerians seeking generational renewal and ideological revolution rather than familiar elite contentions.
Still, dismissing Atiku would be politically unwise. Nigerian elections are often won not only through popularity, but through identity politics, coalition management, elite negotiation, and organisational reach, all areas where Atiku remains highly competitive.
Governor Seyi Makinde and the Technocratic Recalibration. The emergence of Seyi Makinde under the PDP–APM alliance introduces another compelling dimension to the 2027 contest.
Unlike many traditional political heavyweights, Makinde increasingly projects himself as a governance-oriented technocrat seeking to reposition politics around competence, innovation, and administrative credibility. His supporters point to his governance record in Oyo State, his relatively moderate political style, and his appeal among younger professionals and reform-minded voters. More importantly, Makinde’s candidacy directly challenges Nigeria’s conventional zoning assumptions. Traditionally, the expectation remains that presidential power should rotate North after the completion of a Southern presidency in 2031.
However, Makinde’s emergence complicates this arithmetic by arguing, implicitly and explicitly, that governance performance should matter as much as geography. In this sense, Makinde represents a broader intellectual shift within Nigerian politics: the gradual movement from “whose turn is it?” toward “who can govern effectively?” His candidacy may therefore resonate with younger voters increasingly frustrated by elite rotational bargains that have not necessarily produced accountable governance.
Nevertheless, Makinde’s challenge remains structural. National elections require deep grassroots networks, extensive funding, and broad political alliances. While his technocratic image strengthens his credibility, transforming state-level popularity into nationwide electoral viability remains a difficult undertaking.
The Goodluck Jonathan Question: Consensus or Political Nostalgia? Recurring speculation surrounding Goodluck Jonathan reflects the growing uncertainty within Nigeria’s political landscape.
Though Jonathan has not formally declared interest, discussions around his possible return reveal broader anxieties about political stability, national cohesion, and the search for a less polarising figure. Former President Jonathan’s democratic credentials remain significantly strengthened by his peaceful concession of power in 2015, widely regarded as one of the most important moments in Nigeria’s democratic history.
Supporters therefore view him as a stabilising statesman capable of calming political tensions and rebuilding elite consensus. Jonathan, with one more term, appeals to the zoning debates. Jonathan’s candidacy resonates with President John Mahama of Ghana, who returned after eight years and won.
The 2027 presidential election is gradually transforming into one of the most significant democratic contests in the country’s modern history. More than a battle between parties, it represents competing visions of national identity, governance, inclusion, and democratic evolution.
Bola Ahmed Tinubu offers continuity, institutional stability, and incumbency. Peter Obi and Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso present a reformist coalition seeking to bridge generational and regional divides through the OK Movement. Atiku Abubakar advances a strategy rooted in Northern electoral arithmetic and coalition politics. Seyi Makinde embodies technocratic recalibration and merit-based leadership.
Goodluck Jonathan reflects the appeal of consensus and national reconciliation in uncertain times.
Will the 2027 election be a three, four or five-horse race?
Reconfiguring Nigeria’s 2027 Elections: Zoning, Coalition Politics and the Battle for the Presidency
Unite North: VP Shettima’s Call for Peace and Unity Among Northern Communities
By: Dr. James Bwala
Northern Nigeria is home to a multiplicity of cultures and ethnic groups; the Hausas, the Fulanis, the Kanuris, and the Nupes all live in Northern Nigeria. Because most of these groups share a common heritage and have a long history of peacefully living together, Northern Nigeria’s communities play a vital role in the socio-economic development of the country. However, the occurrence of conflicts between groups of people residing in the North has unfortunately stifled economic development, caused people to be displaced, and even cost some their lives.
Recently, Vice President Kashim Shettima made an important plea to some communities, specifically the Hausas and the Fulanis, for an end to conflict and a unification of forces. His compliments and constructive criticism are accurate and needed for the ongoing development of peace and growth in the Northern region of Nigeria.
The vice president’s words reflect a deep understanding of the realities of this situation. He mentioned that Hausas, Fulanis, Kanuris, and the Nupes all possess no defining differences. He pointed out that the struggle in the North brings violence to communities that all share hopes and dreams of economic and social development and reinforces the barriers that separate them from the assistance that the federal government is ready to provide.
READ ALSO: https://newsng.ng/vp-shettimas-invest-lagos-summit-a-contest-of-narratives-on-both-the-dangote-and-abdulsamad-empires/
In looking at the causes of conflict between these groups, one can see that political manipulation and historical grievances, along with competition for limited resources and misunderstanding, also play important roles. The conflict between the settled agricultural communities, mainly the Hausas and Kanuris, and the pastoral Fulanis revolves mainly around issues of land, the use of land for grazing, and the availability of water. Lack of communication and distrust serve to deepen the impact of violence on every group.
Vice President Shettima’s appeal for forgiveness and unity is an appeal for reconciliation on a national level. In conflict situations, forgiveness allows the groups to overcome the historical grievances and concentrate on the common objectives. This appeal for forgiveness and reconciliation is effective when there is strong will and involvement from the grassroots. Such an initiative enables the leadership to strengthen communication and to promote the realization of structures and systems for peaceful coexistence. The councils, religious institutions, and civil society organs are able to promote the necessary and sufficient conditions of reconciliation and forgiveness.
ALSO READ: https://newsng.ng/vp-shettimas-invest-lagos-summit-a-contest-of-narratives-on-both-the-dangote-and-abdulsamad-empires/
The northern peoples’ unity can help maximize government and private investments. Once initiatives for development and the building of health and educational infrastructure for the North begin, a peaceful environment will be required. The fullest help from the government should see the greatest commitment from the people to keep the peace and work for progress.
The North’s strategic significance to the entire country of Nigeria must also be recognized. As Nigeria’s major provider of agricultural and trade resources and of the human resources upon which the nation draws, the North’s growth must be a worthy goal for Nigeria’s entire growth. Social conflicts among the various ethnic groups in the North will fragment the region and adversely affect Nigeria’s potential for peace, stability, and growth. Thus, appeals for peace and unity must be seen not only as a regional concern but also as a national concern.
In order to achieve lasting peace in the North and reconcile the people following this ugly and unfortunate situation, the North must look inwardly and establish and implement a multi-faceted approach in addressing the underlying causes of violence and tension that have engulfed the region for decades now. Measures to be taken should include equitable distribution of resources, transparent governance, effective conflict resolution mechanisms, and empowerment of youth and women who are often the victims of these conflicts. There is also the need for educational campaigns that would promote cultural awareness, religious tolerance, and respect for individuals’ dignity, which can be very helpful in dismantling prejudices and fostering solidarity among diverse ethnic groups that made us strong as Arewa people.
READ ALSO: https://newsng.ng/vp-shettimas-invest-lagos-summit-a-contest-of-narratives-on-both-the-dangote-and-abdulsamad-empires/
While we come together as a people to do the needful, the government also must ensure that security agencies operating across states in the North must earn the confidence of the people while discharging their duties impartially and effectively to protect all citizens irrespective of where they are held. Also, the issue of accountability for perpetrators of violence, if taken with some degree of justice, can deter future conflicts and therefore build confidence in the justice system. In addition to this, there should be investment in rural development and sustainable agriculture so as to alleviate competition over resources while encouraging cooperation through joint ventures and community projects to serve the common good.
Kashim Shettima’s vision for a strong and united Northern Nigeria is not just about an idealistic plea; the vision is a strategic approach necessary for building a North whose foundation its fathers have left for the generation now and for generations to come. Therefore, it is incumbent on the people to embrace their common identity through unity and recognizing that their strength lies in that unity rather than division. It was the unity of the North that led the people to greatness; harnessing their collective potential can transform the region into a beacon of peace, prosperity, and cultural richness. However, the people must realize that this cannot be achieved when violence and killings become a way of life.
READ ALSO: https://newsng.ng/vp-shettimas-invest-lagos-summit-a-contest-of-narratives-on-both-the-dangote-and-abdulsamad-empires/
In analyzing the call made by the Vice President, Kashim Shettima, towards ending violence, especially between the Hausas, Fulanis, and other tribes, and the call towards unity for the common good of the people of northern Nigeria, this calls for urgent attention and decisive action, looking at the current situation and the way things are falling apart in the region. Indeed, the future of the region depends on the ability of the people to reconcile their differences, forgive past wrongs, and work together collaboratively toward shared development goals, which are the dreams of the fathers. Also, with government support and communal commitment, the North can walk through these muddy waters and overcome its challenges and set an example of harmony and progress for the entire nation. I believe in the words of the “Jagoran Arewa,” the vice president, that it is indeed time for healing and for northerners to lay down their arms and embrace dialogue and build a united front that will usher in a new era of peace and prosperity for all northerners.
* James Bwala, PhD, writes from Abuja.
Unite North: VP Shettima’s Call for Peace and Unity Among Northern Communities
Ekiti 2026: VP Shettima Drums Support For Oyebanji’s Reelection At APC Mega Rally
Says governor’s 2nd term bid is a ticket that deserves renewal, an investment in state’s progress, peace, future
By: Our Reporter
Reiterates FG’s resolve to work with state in deepening development, expanding opportunity, strengthening security
The Vice President, Senator Kashim Shettima , Monday, embarked on a last-minute campaign for the reelection of the All Progressives Congress (APC) governorship candidate, Governor Biodun Oyebanji, for a second term in office ahead of Saturday’s gubernatorial election in Ekiti State.
He told the people of the state that the joint ticket of Governor Oyebanji and his deputy, Chief Mrs. Monisade Afuye, is a ticket of balance, experience, and continuity that deserves renewal, noting that instead of a routine contest in Saturday’s governorship poll, Ekiti is standing at the gate of a larger Nigerian journey.
Speaking in Ado-Ekiti, the Ekiti State capital, during the APC Grand Finale Mega Rally, Senator Shettima, who represented President Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu, maintained that continuity for Governor Oyebanji is an investment in the peace, progress, and future of the state.
Joined at the mega rally by APC governors, party leaders, National Assembly members and Ministers, among others, the Vice President said, “The task before you is simple, sacred, and historic. Go out and vote. Speak to your neighbours. Speak to your families. Speak to your wards, your unions, your communities, and your friends. Tell them that continuity in Ekiti is not a favour to one man. It is an investment in the peace, progress, and future of this state.
“And so I ask you, sons and daughters of this proud land, to march to the polling units in your numbers and cast your votes for Biodun Oyebanji and his worthy Deputy, Mrs. Monisade Afuye. Give them the mandate to finish the work they have so faithfully begun. Stand with them as steadfastly as they have stood with you.”
VP Shettima noted that the mammoth crowd that gathered at the Ekiti Parapo Pavilion, venue of the mega rally in Ado Ekiti, is an indication that the people of the state are together with the APC and the government at the centre, in the journey to make Nigeria better, just as he extended the goodwill of President Bola Ahmed Tinubu, noting that Ekiti State remains dear to the government.
Drumming support for Governor Oyebanji and his deputy, he said, rather than approaching leadership as a theatre, the governor understands that “government must touch the market woman, the teacher, the civil servant, the farmer, the student, the driver, the trader, and the family waiting for hope at the end of each month.”
Senator Shettima stated that Governor Oyebanji has shown dedication to the welfare of Ekiti people, carried himself with humility, governed with patience, and listened with respect, while working “with the calm strength of a man who knows that power is a loan from the people.”
He continued: In Governor Oyebanji, Ekiti has a son who did not come to experiment with the state. He came prepared. He came with knowledge of the land. He came with respect for elders, with regard for institutions, and with a heart open to the young.
“He has not spent his time fighting shadows. He has spent it building bridges, strengthening trust, and keeping the machinery of government focused on service.”
Describing the joint ticket as one of balance, experience, and continuity that has worked, and therefore deserves renewal, VP Shettima said APC’s stability is not an accident but a “product of sacrifice by noble leaders like Governor Oyebanji, leaders who understand that politics without discipline becomes confusion, and ambition without order becomes injury to the people.
He observed that while other political parties “are busy fighting themselves, quarrelling over chairs, tearing their roofs in the rain, and asking the people to trust them with a house they cannot keep standing,” the the APC has stayed together, disagreeing with maturity and resolved its differences purpose.
He promised that the President Tinubu-led Federal Government will work hand in hand with the governor, his deputy, and the people of Ekiti “to deepen development, expand opportunity, support enterprise, strengthen security, and widen the road to shared prosperity.”
Also, Senate President Godswill Akpabio described Oyebanji “as the most friendly parliamentary governor in Nigeria,” stating that the governor has performed excellently and deserves to be reelected by the people of the state.
“Therefore, on election day when you go to the polling unit and collect the ballot paper, look for the broom and once you vote for the broom you have voted for the continuity of good governance of Governor Biodun Oyebanji of Ekiti State,” he said.
Similarly, APC National Chairman, Prof. Nentawe Yilwatda, said the governor’s style of leadership exemplifies the true philosophy of what the APC stands for.
He applauded the governor’s achievements in education, health services delivery and infrastructure development, saying “I saw the roads that you have constructed; take a bow and take your votes.”
Earlier, Governor Oyebanji thanked President Tinubu and Vice President Shettima for their tremendous support towards the progress and development of the state since they assumed office in 2023.
The governor, who expressed gratitude to the people of Ekiti for entrusting him with their mandate, appealed to them to shun all forms of violence before, during and after the June 20 gubernatorial election in the state.
“I don’t have much to say rather than to thank the people of Ekiti State. Close to four years ago, we entered into a social contract with you that we will serve you. You can attest to the fact that with the help of God and the support of Mr. President, we have served you well.
“My plea to you on Saturday is that, go out and cast your votes for the APC. Our symbol is the broom and when you vote for the broom you are voting for the continuation of our shared prosperity agenda. Please be at peace with your self. Don’t fight with anybody. Let us exercise our civil duty to celebrate democracy,” Oyebanji said.
Before proceeding to the venue of the mega rally, the Vice President paid homage to the Ewi of Ado Ekiti, HRH Oba Adeyemo Adejugbe, where he thanked the royal father, saying he not merely a presentation of the antiquity but a symbol of Ekiti people’s heritage.
Urging the citizens to come out enmass for the election, he said this is the first time and incumbent governor of Ekiti would be elected for a second term in office.
The VP also urged the traditional rulers to join hands with the governor for the development of Ekiti State, citing federal appointments the state has benefited under the Tinubu administration.
Earlier, the Ewi of Ado Ekiti expressed gratitude to President Tinubu and Vice President Shettima for their efforts to boost the education sector, including the establishment of NelFund, which he said has assisted many Ekiti indigenes.
The Traditional ruler also noted that the Tinubu administration has done a lot in terms of transport infrastructure, citing the Lagos – Calabar coastal road and other trunk A roads across the country as a testament to infrastructural development in the country.
The Vice President also met with members of the Ekiti State Traditional Rulers Council at Government House, where he assured them of President Tinubu’s support for the traditional institution.
The Chairman of the Council and the Ogoga of Ikere-Ekiti, HRM Oba Adu Adejimi Alagbado, thanked Vice President Shettima for coming back to Ekiti, saying it is an indication of the love Mr. President has shown to the state.
Noting that the Tinubu administration has benefited Ekiti people, he pledged the support of all the traditional rulers to the administration and to ensure that the governor and the President are reelected for a second term.
Ekiti 2026: VP Shettima Drums Support For Oyebanji’s Reelection At APC Mega Rally
ADC PICKS RT. HON. CHIBUIKE ROTIMI AMAECHI AS ATIKU’S RUNNING MATE
By: Michael Mike
The African Democratic Congress (ADC) has picked former Rivers State Governor and former Minister of Transportation, Rt. Hon. Rotimi Amaechi, as its vice-presidential candidate for the 2027 general election, pairing him with former Vice President Atiku Abubakar on what party leaders describe as a “unity and rescue ticket.”
Announcing the decision, ADC National Publicity Secretary, Mallam Bolaji Abdullahi, said Amaechi’s emergence followed broad consultations within the party and reflected his strong performance as runner-up in the party’s presidential primaries as well as his track records of service to his State and the country.
According to the ADC, Amaechi’s extensive experience across both the legislative and executive arms of government, as former Speaker of the Rivers State House of Assembly, two-term Governor of Rivers State, and former Minister of Transportation, makes him uniquely qualified to complement Atiku’s leadership, strengthen the party’s national appeal, and bolster its campaign to offer Nigerians an experienced and credible alternative ahead of the 2027 presidential election.
The full statement read:
The National Leadership of the African Democratic Congress (ADC), after extensive consultations with party leaders, coalition partners, youth and women stakeholders, and representatives of all geopolitical zones, is proud to announce that the Rt. Hon. Chibuike Rotimi Amaechi has been selected as the Vice-Presidential Candidate of our great party for the 2027 Presidential Election.
This recommendation follows the successful conclusion of the ADC Presidential Primaries, in which Rt. Hon. Amaechi emerged as the runner-up, earning widespread support from party members across the federation and demonstrating his enduring appeal as one of Nigeria’s most experienced and respected political leaders.
The proposed partnership between His Excellency Atiku Abubakar and Rt. Hon. Rotimi Amaechi represents more than a political alliance; it is the coming together of two tested statesmen with the experience, national reach, and leadership capacity required to rescue Nigeria from its current challenges and reposition the country for a new era of prosperity, security, and inclusive development.
Rt. Hon. Amaechi brings to this ticket one of the most comprehensive public service records in contemporary Nigerian politics. His experience spans all major pillars of democratic governance. He served with distinction as Speaker of the Rivers State House of Assembly, making him one of the longest-serving legislative leaders in Nigeria’s Fourth Republic. He subsequently served two terms as Governor of Rivers State, where he oversaw significant investments in infrastructure, education, healthcare, and public sector reforms. At the national level, he served as Minister of Transportation, leading some of the most ambitious transportation and rail modernization initiatives in Nigeria’s history.
Few political leaders in Nigeria today possess such extensive and balanced experience across both the legislative and executive arms of government. This depth of experience will be invaluable in supporting the next ADC administration from day one.
Beyond his impressive credentials, Rt. Hon. Amaechi strengthens the ticket strategically. His political influence across the South-South and wider Southern Nigeria, his reputation as a reform-minded administrator, and his proven ability to build coalitions across political, ethnic, and regional lines make him uniquely positioned to complement the candidacy of Atiku Abubakar.
Together, Atiku Abubakar and Rotimi Amaechi embody a truly national ticket—one that bridges regions, generations, and political traditions. Their combined experience in governance, economic management, public administration, party organization, and nation-building offers Nigerians a credible and compelling alternative capable of restoring confidence in government and accelerating national development.
At a time when millions of Nigerians are demanding competent leadership, economic revival, job creation, security, and national unity, the Atiku-Amaechi ticket sends a clear message: the ADC is prepared to govern, prepared to unite the nation, and prepared to deliver results.
The leadership of the ADC is confident that this partnership will energize our growing coalition, inspire hope among Nigerians, and provide the leadership necessary to build a stronger, safer, and more prosperous Federal Republic of Nigeria.
The ADC therefore calls on all party members, coalition partners, civil society organizations, youth groups, women leaders, and Nigerians of goodwill to join us as we embark on this historic journey to renew our nation and secure a better future for generations to come.
Signed:
Mallam Bolaji Abdullahi
National Publicity Secretary
African Democratic Congress (ADC)
ADC PICKS RT. HON. CHIBUIKE ROTIMI AMAECHI AS ATIKU’S RUNNING MATE
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