2027: The Dynamics of Consensus Candidates and the Crisis of Succession in Nigeria’s Democratic Party Politics

By: Dr. James Bwala

In contemporary Nigerian democracy, 

The issue of successorship appointment within party ranks in contemporary Nigerian democracy has generated considerable debate among political stakeholders and members alike. Central to this discourse is the widespread practice of imposing consensus candidates—a phenomenon that ostensibly aims to project unity and avoid intra-party conflicts but, paradoxically, erodes the democratic foundation of political parties. Indeed, the consensus candidate approach, rather than fostering internal party democracy, serves as a malignant force undermining transparent political processes, suppressing genuine competition, and jeopardizing the future of Nigeria’s democratic governance. To preserve and deepen democracy in Nigeria, political parties must reject consensus impositions and recommit to authentic primaries that allow merit and popular choice to prevail.

At the heart of a healthy democratic system lies the principle of open and competitive elections, extending into the primaries that select party candidates. Primaries provide an institutionalized mechanism for party members to exercise their political rights by choosing leaders who best represent their values and aspirations. The competitive nature of primaries encourages accountability, policy debate, and grassroots mobilization—all indispensable elements in a vibrant democracy. However, in Nigeria, this crucial democratic practice is frequently circumvented through consensus candidacies, where powerful figures—often incumbent governors or party elites—dictate the choice of successors without proper consultation or vote by party members.

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This practice of imposing consensus candidates is deeply flawed for several reasons. Firstly, it fundamentally undermines intra-party democracy. When a candidate is chosen through a top-down arrangement rather than a transparent contest, members feel disenfranchised and disillusioned. The sense of ownership and participation that fuels political engagement dissipates, leading to decreased activism and voter apathy. Secondly, consensus candidates often emerge not on the basis of merit or popular appeal but due to patronage networks, financial inducements, and political bargaining aimed at preserving the status quo. This environment breeds mediocrity and stifles innovation within party structures, as leadership positions become rewards for loyalty rather than platforms for effective governance.

The entrenchment of consensus candidacies has pernicious effects beyond party dynamics. It aggravates corruption and rent-seeking behavior by creating a protected class of politicians who owe their allegiance primarily to power brokers rather than constituents. The “cancer” analogy aptly captures this phenomenon: consensus candidacies are symptomatic of deeper systemic malaise where democratic norms rot under the influence of greed and manipulation. Governors and influential party leaders who push through consensus arrangements often do so to shield themselves from accountability, blocking probes and critical scrutiny. By controlling their succession, they ensure continuity in corrupt practices and minimize threats to their entrenched interests.

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It is crucial to recognize that while consensus candidacies may appear expedient in the short term by avoiding visible factional disputes, their long-term consequences are detrimental. The absence of genuine electoral competition breeds political instability, as aggrieved aspirants and marginalized factions may resort to extra-legal means to assert their claims, including defections, violent confrontations, or undermining party cohesion during general elections. Furthermore, the public’s perception of political parties as undemocratic and self-serving institutions diminishes trust in the electoral process and discourages citizen participation.

A healthy democracy demands that political parties reflect the will and choice of the people, beginning with their internal selection processes. Nigeria’s democracy cannot thrive if party leaderships continue to manipulate succession to serve narrow interests. Instead, parties should strive to institutionalize transparent, inclusive, and credible primaries where aspirants compete on a level playing field. This would entail establishing independent and impartial electoral committees within parties, enforcing strict adherence to democratic rules, and ensuring that party members have unfettered access to information and the opportunity to scrutinize candidates’ credentials.

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The role of external actors, such as the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), civil society organizations, and the media, is equally vital. These stakeholders must intensify efforts to promote internal party democracy, monitor primary elections vigilantly, and expose irregularities when they occur. Legal frameworks governing party primaries should be strengthened to discourage autocratic tendencies and illicit practices, with clear sanctions for violations. Above all, political leaders must embrace the spirit of democracy by prioritizing national interest over personal or sectional gains.

The pervasive practice of appointing consensus candidates within political parties poses one of the most significant threats to the consolidation of democracy in Nigeria. While consensus might superficially symbolize harmony, it has largely become a covert mechanism that perpetuates exclusion, weakens democratic institutions, and entrenches corruption. 

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To prevent Nigeria’s democracy from succumbing to this cancerous condition, political parties must return to the drawing board and recommit to genuine democratic processes grounded in free, fair, and competitive primaries. Only through such reforms can Nigeria build a resilient democracy where leadership succession reflects the collective will, nurtures accountability, and fosters good governance for the nation’s progress. Consensus candidates should never be the child of necessity. 

* James Bwala, PhD, is a political commentator and writes from Abuja.

2027: The Dynamics of Consensus Candidates and the Crisis of Succession in Nigeria’s Democratic Party Politics

Shettima’s relentless engagement should remind Nigerians that their government is not an opaque monolith but a responsive entity committed to their welfare.

By: Dr. James Bwala

Recently, I was reading some comments about Vice President Kashim Shettima’s travels. While some of these comments are encouraging, others seem to have distanced themselves from the reality of what it means to be in a leadership position. Nigeria, with its over 200 million inhabitants spread across 36 states and a Federal Capital Territory, presents a multifaceted challenge to governance. The country’s ethnic, religious, and cultural diversity, combined with economic disparities and security concerns, necessitates a leadership approach that is both hands-on and deeply empathetic. Vice President Shettima’s extensive travels allow him to engage directly with various communities, understand their unique challenges, and foster a sense of inclusion and representation within the federal framework. This ground-level interaction cultivates trust between the government and its citizens, diminishing alienation and enhancing the legitimacy of governance structures.

Shettima’s tireless journey across Nigeria, traversing its vast length and breadth, stands as a compelling testament to the government’s unwavering commitment to forging a better future for all Nigerians. In an era where leadership is often critiqued for detachment and inefficiency, Shettima’s relentless engagement exemplifies the vital qualities of dedication, resilience, and visionary stewardship that a leader must embody to achieve meaningful progress. His continuous efforts are not merely symbolic gestures but tangible acts that reflect the innermost drive required to steer a diverse and complex nation toward unity, development, and prosperity.

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The vice president’s visible presence across the country sends a powerful message about the government’s priorities. It signals that no region or group is overlooked; rather, there is a concerted effort to bridge gaps, address grievances, and promote equitable development. This approach contrasts sharply with a detached bureaucracy where policies might be formulated in isolation without adequate appreciation of local realities. By crisscrossing Nigeria, the vice president gathers firsthand insights that inform policy formulation, ensuring that interventions are contextually relevant and more likely to succeed. This dynamic feedback loop between leadership and the populace is critical in a democracy striving for responsiveness and accountability.

The personal toll on Vice President Shettima cannot be overstated. His demanding schedule, often described as exhausting, underscores the sacrifices inherent in leadership at the highest level. Yet, it is precisely this embodiment of relentless commitment that galvanizes governmental momentum and inspires confidence among Nigerians. Leadership, especially in a country as complex as Nigeria, demands an inner reservoir of strength—an indomitable spirit that persists amid fatigue, setbacks, and criticism. Shettima’s ability to continually summon this inner strength reflects his recognition that leadership is not a static position but an active, evolving process requiring constant energy, adaptability, and perseverance.

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Shettima’s style also offers a profound lesson on the interplay between visibility and effectiveness. Too often, political leaders are perceived as distant figures whose decisions emerge from abstract corridors of power. But in contrast, Shettima’s approach breaks down these barriers, positioning the vice presidency as a proactive institution directly engaged with the citizenry. This hands-on leadership fosters a culture of transparency and humility, where listening becomes as important as directing. It reassures Nigerians that their government is not an opaque monolith but a responsive entity committed to their welfare.

In the broader context of Nigeria’s developmental trajectory, the vice president’s efforts align with national ambitions to enhance social cohesion, economic diversification, and infrastructural growth. The government’s push to create jobs, improve healthcare, reform education, and enhance security requires not only robust policies but also vigorous implementation supported by continuous dialogue with stakeholders at every level. Vice President Shettima’s extensive travels enable him to champion these initiatives directly, mobilizing local resources, encouraging public-private partnerships, and advocating for reforms that resonate with community needs and aspirations.

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On a closer look, Shettima’s leadership embodies the essence of servant leadership—a philosophy where leaders prioritize the needs of their people above personal gain or political expediency. His visible exhaustion is not a sign of weakness but an expression of his willingness to share in the struggles of ordinary Nigerians. This empathetic connection builds social capital and reinforces the moral authority necessary for sustainable governance. As Nigeria grapples with issues such as poverty, insecurity, and infrastructural deficits, leadership that demonstrates genuine care and dedication can serve as a unifying force capable of transcending divisive politics and fostering national reconciliation.

Critics might argue that frequent travel and public engagements risk superficiality, suggesting that real change is achieved through policy details and systemic reforms rather than charismatic presence. While policy substance is undeniably critical, the importance of leadership presence should not be underestimated, especially in a federal system where trust and cooperation among diverse regions are indispensable. Vice President Shettima’s approach does not replace rigorous policy work; rather, it complements it by ensuring that policies are grounded in lived experiences and receive the support necessary for effective implementation.

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The rigorous schedule adopted by the vice president sets a benchmark for other leaders in the country, encouraging a culture of diligence and accountability within the government. It raises expectations around active leadership and discourages complacency. When the nation’s second-in-command is seen investing considerable personal effort into understanding and addressing grassroots issues, it elevates the standards for public service and nurtures a political environment oriented toward active problem-solving rather than mere rhetoric.

Some critical-minded Nigerians need to see that Shettima’s continuous crisscrossing of Nigeria is emblematic of a government genuinely invested in building a better nation. His physical journey across diverse terrains mirrors a deeper journey of commitment, resilience, and visionary leadership essential for navigating Nigeria’s complexities. Despite the evident exhaustion, his indefatigable spirit personifies the qualities required to lead effectively in challenging circumstances. Through direct engagement, empathetic governance, and steadfast dedication, Shettima contributes significantly to fostering national unity, promoting inclusive development, and inspiring confidence in Nigeria’s future. His example is a clarion call for leadership that is not only seen and heard but felt profoundly across every corner of the nation, driving collective progress for the greater good.

* James Bwala, PhD, writes from Abuja.

Shettima’s relentless engagement should remind Nigerians that their government is not an opaque monolith but a responsive entity committed to their welfare.

When APC’s incumbency appears secure ahead of 2027

By: Dr. James Bwala

The political landscape in Nigeria as it approaches the 2027 general elections presents a complex tableau marked by rivalry, fragmentation, and strategic posturing. In examining this scenario through the lens of Niccolò Machiavelli’s seminal work, The Prince, one finds striking parallels that elucidate the dynamics at play within Nigerian opposition politics. Machiavelli’s assertion that “it is safer to be feared than loved” and his advocacy for deception as a tool to maintain power offer a critical framework to understand why Nigeria’s opposition has struggled to effectively mount a united front against the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC), led by President Bola Ahmed Tinubu and Vice President Kashim Shettima.

Machiavelli’s political philosophy centers on the pragmatics of power—rulers must often engage in morally ambiguous acts, including fearmongering and calculated deceit, to establish and sustain authority. He stresses that a ruler who is loved but not feared is vulnerable; fear ensures obedience even when affection wanes. Applying this to Nigeria’s contemporary political environment reveals how the ruling party, through both strategic governance and symbolic displays of strength, has induced a palpable sense of fear among opposition ranks, thereby destabilizing their cohesion.

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This fear manifests not only as intimidation by the government’s enforcement mechanisms but also as an overarching anxiety about the futility of opposing a deeply entrenched power structure. This psychological environment has engendered confusion and disarray within opposition parties, hampering their ability to coalesce around a shared vision or unified strategy.

Central to the opposition’s predicament is its inability to transcend personal ambitions and forge a consolidated front. Machiavelli emphasizes the importance of strategic alliances and the consolidation of interests in the pursuit of sustained power. Yet in Nigeria, opposition parties such as the Social Democratic Party (SDP), African Democratic Congress (ADC), New Nigeria Peoples Party (NNPP), and the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) remain fragmented and beset by internal rivalries.

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Rather than focusing their energies on dismantling the hegemony of APC, these groups are embroiled in internecine conflicts, blame-shifting, and coalition wrangling. The PDP’s recent resort to spiritual intercession via a “seven-day prayer” highlights a sense of desperation and reliance on non-strategic measures over pragmatic political maneuvering. This lack of coordination and coherent messaging fuels public perception of disorganization, weakening their collective bargaining power.

The opposition’s fragmentation can be traced to a fundamental deficit in leadership characterized by selfish ambitions. Each faction prioritizes its immediate gains over a long-term vision, thereby undermining confidence among constituents and potential partners within the political arena. Without the “voice of unity,” opposition parties inadvertently strengthen the position of the ruling APC by squandering resources and opportunities to present a formidable challenge.

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Fear operates as a dual-edged sword in this context. The ruling APC harnesses it to consolidate support and suppress dissent, while opposition leaders themselves are hindered by their fear of losing influence, relevance, and political capital. Such fear leads to hesitation, mistrust, and ultimately paralysis. This atmosphere dissuades cooperative behavior among opposition factions, making coalition-building a herculean task.

The fear of persecution or political marginalization under an APC-dominated system disincentivizes boldness. Many opposition figures adopt defensive postures, reluctant to risk alienating their base or breaching fragile agreements. This dynamic creates a vicious cycle where fear undermines unity, disunity reinforces APC dominance, and dominance exacerbates fear.

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President Bola Ahmed Tinubu and Vice President Kashim Shettima have effectively capitalized on these fractures within the opposition. Their leadership within the APC represents a consolidation of power that Machiavelli would recognize as a well-executed maintenance of principality. The APC’s overwhelming political machinery, resource allocation, control over security apparatus, and effective grassroots mobilization have rendered opposition efforts less efficacious.

The symbolic victories—the faltering of SDP, the sinking of ADC, and the uncertain trajectory of the National Democratic Coalition (NDC)—are testimonies to APC’s strategic supremacy. The ruling party’s preemptive victories in goodwill and political influence signal that the 2027 elections may again be skewed in their favor. They have won not only battles on the ground but also psychological warfare by fostering a perception of inevitability regarding their continued rule.

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As Nigeria marches toward the 2027 general elections, the question remains: can the opposition overcome its internal divisions to challenge the APC effectively?

For a start, the opposition must heed Machiavelli’s advice on the necessity of unity and strategic subterfuge. Facing a dominant opponent requires flexibility, sacrifice of individual ambitions for collective goals, and a willingness to engage in political realism rather than idealistic posturing. This would mean forging genuine coalitions not merely for electoral convenience but with a clear, shared agenda to address Nigeria’s numerous governance challenges. 

Opposition leaders need to cultivate a new narrative that transcends blame games. Popular disenchantment with the APC should be transformed into a cohesive political force, capable of articulating viable alternatives. Building trust within and across parties, managing ideological differences pragmatically, and presenting credible candidates could galvanize voter enthusiasm and disrupt APC’s dominance.

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However, the prospect of such transformation remains uncertain. Entrenched interests, historical grievances, and the lure of power complicate unified action. Without a decisive initiative toward reconciliation and strategic planning, the opposition risks repeating past failures, remaining divided and ineffective.

Indeed, the Nigerian political landscape ahead of the 2027 general elections vividly illustrates the enduring relevance of Machiavellian political thought. The ruling APC’s use of fear and strategic depth has created a daunting environment for opposition parties, which remain mired in fragmentation and self-interest. Until the opposition can muster the discipline and unity required to challenge the established order, APC’s incumbency appears secure.

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The lessons from Machiavelli urge political actors in Nigeria to embrace realism, where fear and deception are tools wielded prudently to maintain or contest power. Whether Nigeria’s opposition will rise above its divisions and contest the election “in one piece” or continue to falter remains to be seen. What is indisputable, however, is that the political game in Nigeria is as much about psychological mastery and strategic alliances as it is about ideology or policy—a truth that Machiavelli first unveiled centuries ago yet remains profoundly applicable today.

* James Bwala, PhD, is a political analyst and wrote from Abuja. 

When APC’s incumbency appears secure ahead of 2027