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Report Indicates ongoing attempts at distorting outcome of elections

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Report Indicates ongoing attempts at distorting outcome of elections

… Classifies 22 states as having high risk of manipulation

By: Michael Mike

The Election Manipulation Risk Index (EMRI) report released on Friday has showed that there are ongoing attempts to distort the outcomes of next month’s general elections.

The report was complied by the International Press Centre, Institute for Media and Society, Partners for Electoral Reform, The Albino Foundation, The Nigerian Women Trust Fund, The Kukah Centre, Enough is Enough Nigeria, Center for Journalism Innovation and Development, SBM Intelligence, Dataphye and Yiaga Africa.

Releasing the report in Abuja, the group alleged that “attempts to distort election outcomes using manipulation strategies are on the rise. Key actors are devising strategies to punctuate electoral preparations and neutralize the impact of laudable reforms aimed at enhancing the integrity of the electoral process.

“The political interference with INEC operations, tampering with the voter register, frivolous litigations and resistance against electoral technology like BVAS and IReV, and administrative lapses are electoral risks that may potentially impugn the integrity of the 2023 elections.”

According to the report, “in response to these risks, civil society organisations designed the Election Manipulation Risk Index (EMRI) to facilitate systematic and coherent monitoring of the insidious nature of election manipulation in the build-up to Nigeria’s 2023 general elections. The central focus of the EMRI is election administration, and it seeks to provide citizens with a clear understanding of what constitutes election manipulation and the role of citizens in risk mitigation. It should be seen as a rapid scanning tool rather than an in-depth solution for threats of election manipulation.”

The report added that: “While other forms of manipulation can take place, the EMRI focuses on six variables for tracking election manipulation. They include; INEC capture, manipulation of the voter register, voter suppression, resistance to the election technology, especially BVAS and IReV, history of election manipulation, and election litigation. Several empirical indicators are then identified for each variable to unravel election manipulation. Election security may compound the analysis and shift the focus from the election administration process, hence its exclusion from the EMRI variables and indicators.”

The report classified 22 states as high-risk states due to the presence of more than three EMRI variables, Imo, Anambra, Enugu, Ebonyi, Abia, Rivers, Akwa Ibom, Lagos, Oyo, Osun, Ekiti, Kwara, Niger, Plateau, Taraba, Kaduna, Bauchi, Adamawa, Kano, Katsina, Sokoto and Jigawa.

Twelve states were classified as having medium election manipulation risks. The states include Borno, Yobe, Nasarawa, Benue, Kogi, Zamfara, Kebbi, Ogun, Edo, Delta, Bayelsa and Cross River.

Three states were classified as low risk. They include Gombe, Ondo, and Federal Capital Territory.

According to the report, the EMRI is a qualitative tool of analysis that relies heavily on observation, content analysis, and expert interviews. Data collected through these methods are triangulated to reflect how they result in election manipulation.

The EMRI highlighted states where election manipulation occurred and introduced a ranking of states based on the prevalence of election manipulation indicators.

The risk indicator ranking is divided into three categories: High Risk (states with three variables and above), Medium Risk (states with two variables), and Low Risk (states with 1 or 0 variables).

The report claimed that most evidence for EMRI were sourced from INEC reports and statements and publications, pre- and post-election observation reports from domestic and international observers, and reports from trusted unbiased media institutions.

While reading the report, the Director of International Press Centre (IPC), Lanre Arogundade, promised that three EMRI iteration reports will be released on the 2023 general election, noting that it is expected that the EMRI will curb election manipulation, facilitate strategic election planning and promote citizens’ oversight of the electoral process.

The report, however advised that to mitigate against the risk, measures should be taken: INEC should deploy trusted, incorruptible, and experienced Administrative Secretaries, Heads of ICT, and Operations to high risks states; Intense scrutiny of applications for ad-hoc personnel recruitment; Applicants should undergo competency tests, and names of successful applicants should be published for public scrutiny; INEC should create a system for submitting objections against partisan and compromised ad-hoc officials.

INEC should intensify oversight and monitoring of its officials in high and medium-risk states. This includes establishing a reporting mechanism that enables citizens to report concerns and complaints against INEC officials; clean-up of the voter register to remove multiple registrants, fictitious names, and underage registrants; greater transparency with the management of claims and objections submitted by citizens to INEC; diligent prosecution of INEC officials responsible for the manipulation of the voter register; enhanced monitoring and oversight of INEC officials managing the PVC collection process to prevent manipulation and deliberate denial from issuing PVCs to certain persons.

Also advised are timely production and distribution of PVCs to all registered voters, resistance to election technology like BVAS and IReV; enhanced security in storage facilities where the BVAS devices are stored; restraint on the part of the judiciary to entertain frivolous litigations against the use of the BVAS and IReV; continuous public sensitization on the capacity of the BVAS and IReV to limit election
manipulation; increase public awareness of mitigation measures in the 2022 Electoral Act against election manipulation, INEC should ensure adequate training of its staff to enforce compliance with the Electoral Act 2022 and INEC Regulations and Guidelines
Election litigation; the judiciary should dismiss cases instituted to undermine the preparations for the general elections; and the Nigerian Bar Association should take disciplinary actions against legal practitioners engaged in election manipulation using the judicial process.

Report Indicates ongoing attempts at distorting outcome of elections

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ADC Declares Itself ‘Unstoppable Force,’ Accuses APC, INEC of Undermining Democracy

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ADC Declares Itself ‘Unstoppable Force,’ Accuses APC, INEC of Undermining Democracy

By: Michael Mike

The African Democratic Congress (ADC) has declared itself an unstoppable political force, likening its rise to the certainty of the sun, while launching a scathing attack on the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) and the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) over what it described as growing threats to Nigeria’s democracy.

In its Secretariat report presented by the National Secretary of the party, lOgbeni Rauf Aregbesola

at the party’s 8th National Convention in Abuja on Tuesday, the ADC said no individual, group, or institution could determine its existence, insisting that its legitimacy stems from the will of Nigerians.

The party stressed that it was founded on constitutional guarantees of freedom of association and is driven by what it called widespread public frustration with economic hardship and governance failures.

Describing its mission as a “national rescue effort,” the ADC accused the APC-led administration of presiding over worsening economic conditions, including currency depreciation, rising fuel prices, and declining living standards.

According to the report, the naira’s fall from about N700 to the dollar in 2023 to roughly N1,400 currently represents a severe blow to an import-dependent economy. It also cited the sharp rise in petrol prices—from below N238 per litre to about N1,400—as a major driver of hardship, making transportation unaffordable for many workers.

The party further criticised the government’s handling of electricity supply, alleging that power conditions have deteriorated, with some areas receiving only a few hours of electricity daily.

On governance, the ADC used strong language, warning against what it described as “kakistocracy,” and accused the ruling party of attempting to weaken electoral accountability. It also faulted the administration’s education record, claiming the number of out-of-school children has increased to about 20 million, while multidimensional poverty affects over 130 million Nigerians.

The report argued that the current administration had failed to meet key promises and should be held accountable by voters.

The ADC also accused INEC of failing in its statutory duty by refusing to monitor its convention, describing the move as “dereliction of duty” and evidence of partisan bias.

Citing provisions of the Electoral Act, the party maintained that the commission is legally required to observe political party conventions, especially those involving leadership elections, candidate selection, or merger decisions.

It warned that any attempt to delegitimise its activities would undermine democratic norms and called on the international community to closely monitor developments in Nigeria’s political space.

Despite the tensions, the ADC expressed confidence in its growth, claiming it has rapidly evolved into a major opposition force within months of restructuring and coalition-building efforts.

The party reaffirmed its readiness to contest and provide leadership ahead of the 2027 general elections, urging Nigerians to support what it described as a movement to reclaim the country.

ADC Declares Itself ‘Unstoppable Force,’ Accuses APC, INEC of Undermining Democracy

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2027: Of Shettima’s remarks And Atiku’s response 

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VP Kashim Shettima And former VP Atiku Abubakar

2027: Of Shettima’s remarks And Atiku’s response 

By: Dr. James Bwala

I believe that interactions among top leaders often attract intense scrutiny and can influence public perception considerably. A recent episode involving former Vice President Atiku Abubakar and current Vice President Kashim Shettima provides a compelling case study on the intersection of respect, cultural values, and political discourse. Atiku’s claim of refusal to engage publicly with Kashim, labeling him as disrespectful, juxtaposed with Kashim’s assertion that his comments were merely political challenges devoid of personal offense, raises essential questions about the nature of respect in politics, especially within the cultural context of Northern Nigeria. 

While respect and decorum are foundational values, particularly in traditional societies, political engagement demands a distinct understanding where robust debate and challenge are not only expected but necessary. Atiku, given his extensive experience, should recognize this distinction and refrain from conflating political contestation with personal disrespect.

READ ALSO: https://newsng.ng/2027-ishaya-malgwi-does-not-reflect-the-sentiments-or-intentions-of-northern-leadership-nor-the-stance-of-vice-president-kashim-shettima/

It is critical first to understand the cultural backdrop against which these statements were made. Northern Nigerian society places immense importance on respect, especially towards elders and those who hold traditional authority. In this context, respect is not merely a social nicety but a fundamental principle that preserves societal harmony and upholds long-standing customs. Atiku’s appeal to this cultural framework underscores a genuine concern for maintaining decorum in public discourse, reflecting a desire to keep political rivalry within respectful bounds. His position resonates with many who believe that politics should not erode the basic tenets of interpersonal respect that unify communities.

However, it is equally important to recognize that political arenas operate under somewhat different norms than traditional social settings. Politics inherently involves contestation, negotiation, and at times, confrontation. Public figures, especially those in leadership roles, are expected to engage vigorously with criticism and challenges, understanding that these encounters are part of the democratic process. VP Kashim Shettima’s response — framing his remarks as a call for transparency and accountability rather than a personal affront — exemplifies this political dynamic. In politics, questioning an opponent’s record or demanding clarification is not an act of disrespect but a fundamental exercise of democratic engagement designed to inform the electorate and hold leaders accountable.

READ ALSO: https://newsng.ng/2027-ishaya-malgwi-does-not-reflect-the-sentiments-or-intentions-of-northern-leadership-nor-the-stance-of-vice-president-kashim-shettima/

Atiku’s stance, which carefully separates political platforms from traditional ones, inadvertently blurs an important line. While it is true that traditional platforms emphasize honor and respect toward elders, contemporary political platforms must prioritize open dialogue and constructive criticism. By conflating the two realms, Atiku risks imposing cultural expectations that do not fully apply in the political sphere, which may inhibit honest debate. This conflation can be detrimental, as it discourages politicians from engaging transparently, fearing accusations of disrespect rather than focusing on the substance of their arguments.

Atiku’s considerable experience in Nigerian politics should provide him with a nuanced understanding of political etiquette—one that balances respect with the necessity for outspoken, even pointed, political discourse. Public officeholders should anticipate and accept challenges from their peers without interpreting them as personal attacks. VP Kashim Shettima’s comments, which called upon Atiku to specify his claims on mentorship of men in certain numbers, are a standard political maneuver aimed at fostering clarity and accountability. Such engagements are vital to democracy and should be welcomed rather than rebuffed.

READ ALSO: https://newsng.ng/2027-ishaya-malgwi-does-not-reflect-the-sentiments-or-intentions-of-northern-leadership-nor-the-stance-of-vice-president-kashim-shettima/

It is also worth considering the potential consequences of Atiku’s refusal to engage politically with Kashim Shettima. When senior politicians avoid direct discourse citing disrespect, it sets a precedent that political opponents cannot challenge each other robustly without incurring accusations of impropriety. This could stifle political debate, limit the electorate’s access to contrasting views, and ultimately weaken the democratic process. Healthy democracies thrive on transparent discussions where candidates and leaders openly articulate their policies, question one another’s records, and clarify positions without fear of personal reprisal.

Indeed, Kashim Shettima’s acknowledgment that his remarks were political rather than personal reflects a mature understanding of political culture. It signals a willingness to engage in substantive debate and an acceptance that political rivalry does not equate to personal enmity. This attitude should be encouraged among political leaders to foster an environment where ideas and policies take precedence over personal sensitivities. Such an environment is essential for the evolution of Nigeria’s democracy and the development of governance that truly serves the people.

READ ALSO: https://newsng.ng/2027-ishaya-malgwi-does-not-reflect-the-sentiments-or-intentions-of-northern-leadership-nor-the-stance-of-vice-president-kashim-shettima/

The response of former Vice President Atiku Abubakar and the stance of Vice President Kashim Shettima illustrates the tension between traditional values of respect and the vigorous nature of political engagement. While Atiku’s emphasis on decorum and cultural respect is commendable and reflective of his roots, it is imperative that he, and by extension all Nigerian politicians, differentiate between the expectations of traditional society and the requirements of political life. Political platforms demand open, sometimes confrontational dialogue that prioritizes truth and accountability over personal feelings.

Experienced politicians like Atiku should lead by example, demonstrating that respect in politics does not imply avoiding challenge but rather engaging with criticism constructively and without personalizing disputes. This distinction ensures that political debate remains vibrant and substantive, enriching Nigeria’s democratic culture. In this light, Kashim’s remarks represent the healthy functioning of political discourse, and Atiku’s response, though rooted in cultural sensibilities, would be better served by embracing the ethos of political respect—where contestation and honor coexist to strengthen governance and democracy. Thus, it is not disrespect but democracy in action as more of these would come to play as we head towards the 2027 election campaigns. 

James Bwala, PhD, writes from Abuja.

2027: Of Shettima’s remarks And Atiku’s response 

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2027: Ishaya Malgwi does not reflect the sentiments or intentions of northern leadership nor the stance of Vice President Kashim Shettima.

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Vice President Kashim Shettima.

2027: Ishaya Malgwi does not reflect the sentiments or intentions of northern leadership nor the stance of Vice President Kashim Shettima.

By: Dr. James Bwala

Insinuations by one, Mr. Ishaya Malawi, on the political happenings should be seen as the imaginations of his mindset. While he is free to make comments or statements as democratically allowed, there is a need for him to trade with caution, particularly in his attempts to drag the personality of the vice president, Kashim Shettima, into his imaginative sentiments. Recently, Mr. Ishaya Malgwi made an assertion suggesting that northern leaders might consider urging Vice President Kashim Shettima, GCON, to contest against President Bola Ahmed Tinubu, GCFR, under the banner of the All Progressives Congress (APC). This claim has sparked considerable debate and requires a measured response grounded in fact, loyalty, and an understanding of the current political trajectory of Nigeria under the APC administration. It is crucial to address this insinuation with clarity and responsibility to uphold the integrity of our democratic institutions and promote constructive political discourse.

Firstly, it is essential to establish that the suggestion by Mr. Malgwi does not reflect the sentiments or intentions of northern leadership nor the stance of Vice President Kashim Shettima himself. His Excellency, Vice President Kashim Shettima, is unequivocally loyal to President Bola Ahmed Tinubu and firmly committed to the collective vision and mission of the APC government. The relationship between the president and the vice president is founded on mutual respect, shared goals, and a dedication to the welfare of Nigerians. To insinuate otherwise undermines not only their personal integrity but also the unity and progress of the ruling party.

READ ALSO: https://newsng.ng/umth-when-vp-kashim-shettima-acknowledges-ahidjo-and-hospital-staff-for-their-services-to-victims-of-maiduguri-bomb-blasts/

The APC government, since its inception, has been dedicated to fostering good governance, promoting inclusive development, and ensuring security and stability across the nation. Contrary to the portrayal of a fragmented administration, the APC operates as a cohesive entity working tirelessly to address the myriad challenges facing Nigeria. The claim that the APC is running parallel or competing governments within itself is unfounded and detrimental to the image of the administration both domestically and internationally. Such assertions risk sowing discord and confusion among citizens, detracting from the government’s focus on delivering tangible results.

Also, it is important to contextualize the prevailing issues of unrest, insecurity, hunger, and dissatisfaction within a historical framework. These challenges are not novel to the Tinubu administration; rather, they are deep-rooted problems inherited from previous administrations, exacerbated over years by complex socio-economic and political factors. While the current government acknowledges these issues and is actively working toward sustainable solutions, it is misleading to suggest that these problems originated solely with the APC’s leadership. Political discourse should therefore be grounded in reality and aimed at constructive engagement rather than unfounded blame.

READ ALSO: https://newsng.ng/umth-when-vp-kashim-shettima-acknowledges-ahidjo-and-hospital-staff-for-their-services-to-victims-of-maiduguri-bomb-blasts/

Mr. Malgwi’s reputation for disseminating unsubstantiated claims and engaging in provocative rhetoric must also be considered when evaluating his recent comments. Political dialogue in Nigeria demands responsibility, accountability, and a commitment to truth. When individuals like Ishaya Malgwi resort to spreading misinformation or making baseless allegations, they do a disservice to the democratic process and undermine public trust in governance. It is imperative that criticism, when necessary, be based on factual evidence and delivered respectfully to enhance national cohesion.

In dispelling the notion that Vice President Kashim Shettima might run against President Tinubu, it is also pertinent to highlight the Vice President’s demonstrated loyalty and active involvement in advancing the administration’s agenda. Vice President Shettima’s role extends beyond mere symbolism; he is deeply engaged in policymaking, outreach, and implementation of government programs. His efforts have consistently aligned with the president’s policies, reflecting a harmonious partnership aimed at stabilizing and developing the nation. To drag his name into speculative and divisive narratives not only misrepresents his position but also risks damaging the political harmony essential for effective governance.

READ ALSO: https://newsng.ng/umth-when-vp-kashim-shettima-acknowledges-ahidjo-and-hospital-staff-for-their-services-to-victims-of-maiduguri-bomb-blasts/

Mr. Ishaya Malgwi should know that the political unity within the APC is pivotal for Nigeria’s progress. The party’s platform is built on principles of inclusivity, democracy, and national development. Internal cohesion ensures that the party can effectively address pressing national concerns such as economic revitalization, security challenges, infrastructure development, and social welfare. Attempts to insinuate internal contests or rivalries without substantial proof serve no purpose other than to destabilize the party and distract from its governance responsibilities.

The insinuation by Mr. Ishaya Malgwi regarding Vice President Kashim Shettima’s potential opposition to President Bola Ahmed Tinubu within the APC is baseless and misleading. It does not represent the views of northern leaders or reflect the reality of the administration’s internal dynamics. Vice President Shettima remains a loyal and integral part of the Tinubu-led government, which continues to pursue policies aimed at good governance and national development. 

The APC is not a house divided; it is a government determined to unify Nigerians and drive the country forward. Political discourse should honor the principles of truth, respect, and constructive criticism to foster an environment conducive to Nigeria’s growth and stability. Mr. Malgwi and others must exercise caution and responsibility in their public statements to avoid unnecessary political agitation and focus instead on supporting efforts that uphold Nigeria’s democratic values and collective prosperity.

* James Bwala, PhD, writes from Abuja.

2027: Ishaya Malgwi does not reflect the sentiments or intentions of northern leadership nor the stance of Vice President Kashim Shettima.

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