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Report Indicates ongoing attempts at distorting outcome of elections

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Report Indicates ongoing attempts at distorting outcome of elections

… Classifies 22 states as having high risk of manipulation

By: Michael Mike

The Election Manipulation Risk Index (EMRI) report released on Friday has showed that there are ongoing attempts to distort the outcomes of next month’s general elections.

The report was complied by the International Press Centre, Institute for Media and Society, Partners for Electoral Reform, The Albino Foundation, The Nigerian Women Trust Fund, The Kukah Centre, Enough is Enough Nigeria, Center for Journalism Innovation and Development, SBM Intelligence, Dataphye and Yiaga Africa.

Releasing the report in Abuja, the group alleged that “attempts to distort election outcomes using manipulation strategies are on the rise. Key actors are devising strategies to punctuate electoral preparations and neutralize the impact of laudable reforms aimed at enhancing the integrity of the electoral process.

“The political interference with INEC operations, tampering with the voter register, frivolous litigations and resistance against electoral technology like BVAS and IReV, and administrative lapses are electoral risks that may potentially impugn the integrity of the 2023 elections.”

According to the report, “in response to these risks, civil society organisations designed the Election Manipulation Risk Index (EMRI) to facilitate systematic and coherent monitoring of the insidious nature of election manipulation in the build-up to Nigeria’s 2023 general elections. The central focus of the EMRI is election administration, and it seeks to provide citizens with a clear understanding of what constitutes election manipulation and the role of citizens in risk mitigation. It should be seen as a rapid scanning tool rather than an in-depth solution for threats of election manipulation.”

The report added that: “While other forms of manipulation can take place, the EMRI focuses on six variables for tracking election manipulation. They include; INEC capture, manipulation of the voter register, voter suppression, resistance to the election technology, especially BVAS and IReV, history of election manipulation, and election litigation. Several empirical indicators are then identified for each variable to unravel election manipulation. Election security may compound the analysis and shift the focus from the election administration process, hence its exclusion from the EMRI variables and indicators.”

The report classified 22 states as high-risk states due to the presence of more than three EMRI variables, Imo, Anambra, Enugu, Ebonyi, Abia, Rivers, Akwa Ibom, Lagos, Oyo, Osun, Ekiti, Kwara, Niger, Plateau, Taraba, Kaduna, Bauchi, Adamawa, Kano, Katsina, Sokoto and Jigawa.

Twelve states were classified as having medium election manipulation risks. The states include Borno, Yobe, Nasarawa, Benue, Kogi, Zamfara, Kebbi, Ogun, Edo, Delta, Bayelsa and Cross River.

Three states were classified as low risk. They include Gombe, Ondo, and Federal Capital Territory.

According to the report, the EMRI is a qualitative tool of analysis that relies heavily on observation, content analysis, and expert interviews. Data collected through these methods are triangulated to reflect how they result in election manipulation.

The EMRI highlighted states where election manipulation occurred and introduced a ranking of states based on the prevalence of election manipulation indicators.

The risk indicator ranking is divided into three categories: High Risk (states with three variables and above), Medium Risk (states with two variables), and Low Risk (states with 1 or 0 variables).

The report claimed that most evidence for EMRI were sourced from INEC reports and statements and publications, pre- and post-election observation reports from domestic and international observers, and reports from trusted unbiased media institutions.

While reading the report, the Director of International Press Centre (IPC), Lanre Arogundade, promised that three EMRI iteration reports will be released on the 2023 general election, noting that it is expected that the EMRI will curb election manipulation, facilitate strategic election planning and promote citizens’ oversight of the electoral process.

The report, however advised that to mitigate against the risk, measures should be taken: INEC should deploy trusted, incorruptible, and experienced Administrative Secretaries, Heads of ICT, and Operations to high risks states; Intense scrutiny of applications for ad-hoc personnel recruitment; Applicants should undergo competency tests, and names of successful applicants should be published for public scrutiny; INEC should create a system for submitting objections against partisan and compromised ad-hoc officials.

INEC should intensify oversight and monitoring of its officials in high and medium-risk states. This includes establishing a reporting mechanism that enables citizens to report concerns and complaints against INEC officials; clean-up of the voter register to remove multiple registrants, fictitious names, and underage registrants; greater transparency with the management of claims and objections submitted by citizens to INEC; diligent prosecution of INEC officials responsible for the manipulation of the voter register; enhanced monitoring and oversight of INEC officials managing the PVC collection process to prevent manipulation and deliberate denial from issuing PVCs to certain persons.

Also advised are timely production and distribution of PVCs to all registered voters, resistance to election technology like BVAS and IReV; enhanced security in storage facilities where the BVAS devices are stored; restraint on the part of the judiciary to entertain frivolous litigations against the use of the BVAS and IReV; continuous public sensitization on the capacity of the BVAS and IReV to limit election
manipulation; increase public awareness of mitigation measures in the 2022 Electoral Act against election manipulation, INEC should ensure adequate training of its staff to enforce compliance with the Electoral Act 2022 and INEC Regulations and Guidelines
Election litigation; the judiciary should dismiss cases instituted to undermine the preparations for the general elections; and the Nigerian Bar Association should take disciplinary actions against legal practitioners engaged in election manipulation using the judicial process.

Report Indicates ongoing attempts at distorting outcome of elections

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Buni wins the Yobe East senatorial seat

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Buni wins the Yobe East senatorial seat

By: Yahaya Wakili

The executive governor of Yobe state, Hon. Mai Mala Buni CON, COMN, has won the Yobe East senatorial district primary election.

And Senator Ibrahim Mohammed Bomai has won the Yobe South Senatorial seat. While Senator Ahmad Ibrahim Lawan GCON, the longest-serving senator, has won the Yobe North Senatorial seat, respectively.

Senator Musa Mustapha moved a motion for endorsement of His Excellency Governor Mai Mala Buni CON as the sole APC senatorial candidate for the Yobe East Senatorial District.

The motion was seconded by Hon. Lawan Shettima Ali in line with the provisions of our laws.

“I am truly grateful to our political leaders and constituents for the opportunity given to me to serve in the Nigerian Senate,” Senator Mustapha said.

He maintained that Governor Mai Mala Buni and I have always agreed on everything that we have to do to make our state better, and he is the one that will take over from me.

“With his track record of performance, the Yobe East senatorial election has already been won by Governor Buni, inshallah, and I don’t think there is anybody today with the political capacity to even come near him in the upcoming elections.

Buni wins the Yobe East senatorial seat

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2027: Fintiri wins APC’s senatorial ticket for Adamawa North

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2027: Fintiri wins APC’s senatorial ticket for Adamawa North

Gov. Ahmadu Fintiri of Adamawa has won the All Progressives Congress (APC) Senatorial ticket in the forthcoming 2027 general elections for Adamawa North Senatorial District.

Mr Wilfred William, the returning officer of the APC primary election for Adamawa North senatorial district declared Fintiri the winner and returned him as APC’s candidate at the collation centre in Mubi-North Local Government Area of Adamawa.

He said that the election was conducted across the five LGAs in the zone; Madagali, Maiha, Michika, Mubi-North and Mubi-South.

“The total number of votes for the five LGAs is 292,070, accredited votes 174,514, votes cast 174,514.

“The following are the number of votes scored by each aspirant; Abdulrahaman Kwacham 6,958 votes; Ahmadu Fintiri 160,579 votes and Hamisu Medugu 6,977.

“Having satisfied the requirements, Fintiri scored the highest votes and was hereby declared the winner and returned elected for the Adamawa North Senatorial District,” he said.

2027: Fintiri wins APC’s senatorial ticket for Adamawa North

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2027: “VP Shettima is the soul of the Tinubu ticket.”

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Vice President Kashim Shettima

2027: “VP Shettima is the soul of the Tinubu ticket.”

By: Dr. James Bwala

In the complex and often unpredictable landscape of Nigerian politics, few figures command the nuanced respect and unyielding support that Vice President Kashim Shettima does within the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) and beyond. As Nigeria approaches the pivotal 2027 elections, political discourse has increasingly focused on the symbiotic relationship between President Bola Ahmed Tinubu and his vice president, Shettima—an alliance many analysts and insiders argue forms an inseparable whole. Among those who have championed this narrative for over a decade, I have steadfastly promoted and defended Shettima’s candidacy and political persona in the media, convinced that he is not only indispensable to Tinubu’s ticket but indeed its very soul.

Shettima’s political journey is marked by resilience, versatility, and a deep commitment to Nigeria’s democratic evolution. From his early days as governor of Borno State—where he confronted extremist insurgencies with a combination of diplomacy and firmness—to his current role as vice president, Shettima has consistently demonstrated qualities essential to governance: courage, strategic thinking, and an unshakeable connection to the grassroots. These attributes have earned him a rare kind of political capital, transcending regional and ethnic divides that often constrain Nigerian politicians.

READ ALSO: https://newsng.ng/2027-between-president-tinubu-and-vice-president-kashim-shettima/

The past few years have seen me articulate these points repeatedly, emphasizing Shettima’s unique ability to balance the interests of northern Nigeria while aligning with Tinubu’s southwestern base. This duality is critical in a country where political equations are fundamentally intertwined with geography and identity. Shettima’s presence on the ticket effectively broadens the coalition, ensuring that the APC maintains electoral competitiveness across key demographics. His role is not merely symbolic or ceremonial; it is a strategic masterstroke aimed at reflecting the diversity and unity Nigeria aspires to embody.

Yet, despite these clear advantages, skepticism about Shettima’s political heft persists among certain commentators and factions. Some critics assert that he lacks the “political weight” to govern effectively at the national level or that his influence is confined to limited spheres. These critiques often hinge on isolated events or a narrow interpretation of political dynamics. However, such views overlook the broader, more intricate realities of Nigerian politics, where soft power, coalition-building, and consensus-making are just as vital as raw electoral numbers or populist appeal.

READ ALSO: https://newsng.ng/2027-between-president-tinubu-and-vice-president-kashim-shettima/

A compelling rejoinder to these doubts was recently offered by my respected colleague, Mr. Abdul Rafiu Lawal, former correspondent for TELL Magazine, whose insights carry considerable weight owing to his extensive experience and analytical rigor. Lawal described Vice President Shettima as the “soul of the Tinubu ticket,” a phrase that encapsulates the essence of Shettima’s indispensability to the ruling coalition. He went further to caution that if President Tinubu were to disregard or sever this alliance, he would be committing a grave political error—a move that would jeopardize the ticket’s viability and electoral success.

Lawal’s commentary crystallizes the argument that Shettima is far more than a mere running mate; he is the linchpin of their collective political destiny. His presence on the ticket provides coherence to the APC’s narrative of inclusiveness and stability amid an often fragmented political landscape. Indeed, Shettima’s extensive networks, especially in the crucial Northern geopolitical region, afford the administration a strategic edge in mobilizing voters and consolidating support in areas that might otherwise remain skeptical of the Tinubu-led platform.

READ ALSO: https://newsng.ng/2027-between-president-tinubu-and-vice-president-kashim-shettima/

Beyond electoral calculations, Shettima’s role as the vice president projects a message of reconciliation and forward-looking governance. Nigeria’s history is punctuated by periods of sectional tension and mistrust among its diverse ethnic groups. Having a northeasterner of Shettima’s stature occupying this high office signals a commitment to embracing all corners of the nation, fostering unity and shared purpose. This symbolism resonates with millions who seek assurance that their voices and concerns matter in the corridors of power.

VP Shettima embodies a blend of youthful dynamism and seasoned political acumen that complements Tinubu’s leadership style. Together, they project an image of a government both rooted in experience and responsive to contemporary challenges. This synergy is critical as Nigeria confronts pressing issues—from economic diversification and security threats to social cohesion and infrastructural development.

READ ALSO: https://newsng.ng/2027-between-president-tinubu-and-vice-president-kashim-shettima/

Detractors might argue that political alliances in Nigeria are ephemeral, driven by expediency rather than enduring conviction. While this skepticism is not unfounded historically, the Tinubu-Shettima partnership demonstrates notable durability and shared vision. It is a relationship forged not solely on political convenience but also on mutual respect and a convergent understanding of Nigeria’s needs at this juncture. The consistency of Shettima’s public service record, alongside Tinubu’s leadership trajectory, attests to a partnership built on genuine collaboration.

In light of these considerations, the discourse surrounding the “Shettima issue” must be reframed. Rather than questioning his legitimacy or capacity, stakeholders ought to recognize that the vice president’s role transcends individual ambition. He is a critical agent for national consolidation, whose contributions underpin the larger framework of political stability and growth.

READ ALSO: https://newsng.ng/2027-between-president-tinubu-and-vice-president-kashim-shettima/

As the nation moves closer to the 2027 elections, the importance of coherent, inclusive leadership cannot be overstated. The stakes are high, and the electorate is discerning. Political actors who understand and embrace the composite nature of Nigeria’s polity will be better positioned to deliver lasting progress. Herein lies the significance of Vice President Kashim Shettima’s place on the Tinubu ticket—it is the embodiment of unity in diversity, a strategic nod to Nigeria’s pluralistic fabric, and a testament to the power of principled partnership.

The vice president is undeniably the soul of the Tinubu ticket. His political gravitas, regional representation, and commitment to national development enrich the ticket’s appeal and functionality. To undermine or dismiss his role is to risk destabilizing an alliance that offers Nigeria a credible path towards cohesion and prosperity. As articulated by Abdul Rafiu Lawal and evidenced by decades of Shettima’s public engagement, the vice presidency is not a peripheral appointment but a central pillar in the architecture of Nigeria’s evolving democracy. For those invested in the country’s future, embracing Shettima’s indispensability is not just a political calculation—it is a patriotic imperative.

* James Bwala, PhD, writes from Abuja.

2027: “VP Shettima is the soul of the Tinubu ticket.”

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