Sahel on edge as sabotage campaigns spread across Niger and Mali, threatening regional stability and economic survival

By: Zagazola Makama

A sharp escalation in economic sabotage by armed groups in Niger Republic and Mali is deepening instability across the Central Sahel, with fresh attacks on oil and fuel infrastructure pointing to an increasingly insecure landscape for governments, civilians and foreign partners in the region.

The latest incident occurred on Sunday night in Niger Republic’s eastern Diffa Region, where an oil pipeline explosion at Agadem was attributed to the Mouvement Patriotique pour la Libération du Jihad (MPLJ), a newly emergent armed faction led by Moussa Kounai. The group released a video claiming responsibility for damaging a section of the pipeline and vowed further attacks unless the ruling Conseil National pour la Sauvegarde de la Patrie (CNSP) steps down and reinstates constitutional governance.

The MPLJ also accused the junta of supporting foreign rebel groups, specifically naming the Chadian Front pour l’Alternance et la Concorde (FACT), which it alleges operates with the approval and logistical backing of Niger’s transitional military authorities.

Security sources say the attack marks a worrying expansion of anti-state sabotage in Niger, where armed groups such as the Lakurawa network have previously targeted oil infrastructure. These incidents now coincide with sustained assaults by jihadist formations like JNIM and Islamic State Sahel Province, creating an increasingly complex and volatile security environment.

Zagazola warn that the proliferation of armed groups following the 2023 coup has eroded state control, with economic assets such as pipelines, storage facilities and export routes becoming strategic targets for factions seeking bargaining power or political influence. The Agadem basin a cornerstone of Niger’s crude output and a critical link in its export chain to international markets is especially vulnerable.

Meanwhile in neighbouring Mali, the situation has taken on an even more disruptive dimension as the Al-Qaeda-affiliated JNIM intensifies a sweeping fuel blockade that has crippled the country’s economy and strained daily life for millions.

Since September, JNIM fighters have systematically attacked fuel tankers travelling from Senegal and Côte d’Ivoire, routes that account for the majority of Mali’s fuel imports. Tankers have been burned, drivers and security escorts killed, and entire convoys halted by improvised explosive devices and ambushes.

The insurgents are believed to be retaliating against a government directive restricting fuel sales in rural areas, a measure aimed at cutting off jihadist access to diesel and petrol used for mobility, logistics and explosives manufacturing.

The impact has been devastating. Fuel scarcity has worsened Mali’s longstanding electricity crisis, plunging Bamako and several regional capitals into long blackouts. With power plants relying heavily on diesel, factories have shut down, cold-chain food systems are collapsing, and telecommunications have become unreliable.

Government offices, banks and airports are also struggling to maintain normal operations. On Sunday, authorities suspended classes in all schools and universities for two weeks due to the acute shortage.

In rural communities, the blockade coincides with harvest season. Farmers say tractors and irrigation pumps have become idle, threatening crop yields and heightening food insecurity in a country already burdened by displacement and declining agricultural output.

Despite several rounds of negotiations involving community leaders and intermediaries, no agreement has been reached with JNIM. The group appears intent on leveraging the economic pressure to force political concessions from the military-led government.

Security experts say the rising wave of economic sabotage across Niger and Mali reflects a broader trend in the Sahel, where armed groups are increasingly shifting from territorial warfare to strategic economic disruption. By targeting energy supply lines pipelines in Niger and tanker routes in Mali these groups are undermining state capacity, weakening public confidence, and heightening the cost of governance for already fragile juntas.

The dual crises also signaled troubles for neighbouring countries, particularly Nigeria, which shares extensive energy, trade and security ties with Niger. These misattributed attacks or cross-border accusations could trigger diplomatic strains at a time when regional cooperation is crucial.

With militants in both countries signalling readiness for escalated operations, the Sahel is bracing for deeper instability unless coordinated regional and international responses are mobilised to protect critical infrastructure, restore supply chains and contain armed group expansion.

Zagazola Makama is a counter Insurgency Expert and Security Analyst in the Lake Chad region.

Sahel on edge as sabotage campaigns spread across Niger and Mali, threatening regional stability and economic survival