News
The resurgence of coups and the uncertain future of democracy in Africa
The resurgence of coups and the uncertain future of democracy in Africa
By: Zagazola Makama
The growing wave of political instability across Africa underscores the continent’s fragile democratic foundations and the deepening crisis of governance, legitimacy, and public trust. The recent developments in Madagascar and Cameroon illustrate how decades of poor governance, corruption, and military interference have converged to threaten democratic stability across the region.
On 11 October 2025, Madagascar descended once again into military rule following a coup led by Colonel Michael Randriannirina, commander of the elite Corps d’Administration des Personnel et des Services des Armées Terrestres (CAPSAT). The coup, staged in the capital city, Antananarivo, came after weeks of public protests and defections within the military, with demands for President Andry Rajoelina’s resignation.
As in previous interventions, the junta cited corruption, economic hardship, and poor service delivery particularly in electricity and water supply as justifications for their action. Rajoelina’s whereabouts remain uncertain amid reports that he fled aboard a French military plane. Despite the country’s top court directing the junta to organize elections within 60 days, Colonel Michael has declared a two-year transition period before elections are held.
The coup has drawn cautious reactions from the international community. The African Union, United Nations, and Western governments have called for restraint, while France suspended flights to Madagascar and the United States advised its citizens to shelter in place. The crisis signals the re-emergence of military dominance in Malagasy politics, reminiscent of the 2009 coup that first brought Rajoelina to power, raising fears that Colonel Michael’s youthful leadership could easily devolve into authoritarian rule.
Meanwhile, Cameroon’s 12 October 2025 presidential election has deepened tensions in an already volatile polity. President Paul Biya now seeking an unprecedented eighth term faces mounting opposition, with rival candidate Issa Tchiroma Bakary declaring victory and urging Biya to concede. The ruling party, RDPC, has dismissed such declarations, emphasizing that only the Constitutional Council can certify results. Minister of Territorial Administration, Paul Atanga Nji, further warned that any parallel announcement of results would amount to high treason.
The polls were marred by widespread allegations of vote-buying, irregularities, and intimidation. The RDPC’s sweeping victory in earlier senatorial elections reflected its entrenched control over state institutions. Compounding this is the deepening Anglophone crisis, where fighting between government forces and separatist groups continues to displace thousands. Civil society restrictions, NGO suspensions, and arrests of human rights defenders have further undermined democratic space, raising questions about the credibility and transparency of the entire process.
The election’s outcome will significantly shape Cameroon’s political trajectory. With Biya’s advanced age and the regime’s dependence on coercive control, growing frustrations among the youth and opposition may lead to renewed protests or even attempts at military intervention.
These crises in Madagascar and Cameroon unfold within a broader continental pattern of democratic decline. The failure to dismantle existing juntas in Niger, Mali, and Burkina Faso combined with the unresolved war in Sudan has emboldened new actors to seize power through unconstitutional means. Eight military regimes now govern across Africa, signaling a regression to the pre-2000 era of chronic coups.
The underlying causes remain consistent: corruption, poverty, insecurity, and elite manipulation of institutions. Militaries across the region continue to view themselves as the ultimate guardians of national stability, stepping in where civilian administrations appear weak or compromised. The inconsistent and often selective responses of regional bodies and international partners have further undermined deterrence, emboldening coup plotters and deepening cynicism toward global democratic norms.
From Madagascar and Cameroon to the recent foiled coup plot in Nigeria, where the Defence Headquarters (DHQ) under the leadership of the then Chief of Defence Staff, General Christopher Musa, successfully foiled a deadly violent coup plot aimed at toppling the federal government and democracy. Thanks to the military.
The pattern of instability reveals how corruption, weak institutions, and elite power struggles continue to erode democratic norms and threaten regional stability. Democratic governance and human rights across Africa are now at a crossroads. The continent’s modest gains over the last two decades are being rapidly reversed, with state fragility and authoritarian resurgence threatening regional peace and development.
To arrest this decline, African leaders must prioritize good governance, transparency, and inclusive economic reform to rebuild public trust. Regional organizations like the African Union and ECOWAS must adopt consistent, non-selective sanctions against unconstitutional regimes, while international partners should focus on strengthening democratic institutions rather than individual rulers.
The future of democracy in Madagascar and Cameroonian and indeed across sub-Saharan Africa depends on leaders’ willingness to uphold constitutional order, respect term limits, and deliver tangible socio-economic progress. Only through sustained political accountability and people-centered governance can Africa break the recurring cycle of coups and restore faith in democracy.
Zagazola Makama is a Counter Insurgency Expert and Security Analyst in the Lake Chad
End
News
What Niamey’s Airport attack means for Niger, West Africa and Sahel
What Niamey’s Airport attack means for Niger, West Africa and Sahel
By: Zagazola Makama
Niamey woke up in the morning of Thursday to disturbing reports of heavy gunfire and explosions around the airport zone an area that hosts Niger’s air force base, the headquarters of the joint Sahel force with Mali and Burkina Faso, and a strategic stockpile of uranium.
For nearly two hours, residents heard detonations, saw flashes in the sky resembling anti-aircraft fire, and reported buildings and vehicles in flames. Calm has since returned, but clarity has not.
At the time of writing, no official statement has fully explained what happened. No group has claimed responsibility. And while authorities insist the situation is under control, the silence leaves space for speculation in a region already on edge.
The location alone makes the event highly sensitive. The Niamey airport zone is not an ordinary district. It is the nerve centre of Niger’s air power and regional military coordination. It also hosts uranium stocks, a strategic resource with both national and international implications.
Any shooting in this area automatically raises three big questions: Was this an external attack, an internal security incident, or a mutiny? Some sources suggest the firing may have come from inside the base, which points to the possibility of an internal breach or unrest. If true, this would indicate deep cracks within Niger’s security architecture.
Was a strategic asset targeted? Even if the uranium was not hit, the fact that fighting occurred near such a site elevates the risk level for Niger and its partners. What does this say about control under the current junta? Since Gen. Abdourahamane Tiani took power, Niger has continued to lose it grip on issues of national security. An incident of this scale in the capital challenges that narrative.
For Nigeria, the situation in Niger is not remote. The two countries share a long, porous border, strong trade ties, and deep security interdependence. If Niger’s capital can experience hours of unexplained gunfire around its most sensitive installations, then cross-border insecurity risks increase. Any weakening of control in Niamey could embolden armed groups across the Sahel, including those operating near Nigeria’s northern frontier.
The Sahel’s security architecture looks more fragile. Niger, Mali and Burkina Faso have positioned themselves as a new security bloc after breaking with ECOWAS. Incidents like this brings to the fore about how cohesive and effective that bloc really is. Strategic resources become geopolitical flashpoints. Uranium is not just a Nigerien issue; it has global implications. Any instability around such assets invites international concern and possible pressure.
There is no confirmed evidence yet of a foreign attack, a coup attempt, or a direct operation against uranium. So panic would be premature.
But silence is just as dangerous. In security matters, the absence of clear communication feeds rumours, conspiracy theories and political manipulation. In the Sahel’s volatile environment, that can quickly become destabilising.
What Niamey’s Airport attack means for Niger, West Africa and Sahel
News
Mysterious attack rocks Niger Air Base in Niamey, raises fears of mutiny
Mysterious attack rocks Niger Air Base in Niamey, raises fears of mutiny
By: Zagazola Makama
A major security breach has hit Niger’s capital, Niamey, following a midnight attack on Air Base 101, damaging key military assets and deepening concerns about instability under the junta led by Gen. Abdourahamane Tchiani.
Multiple security sources said explosions were heard around 12:00 a.m. on Wednesday at the strategic air base located near the Diori Hamani International Airport.
The attack reportedly destroyed or disabled several aerial assets, including drones and fixed-wing aircraft, and severely damaged the Unified Force Command Centre.
Four civilian aircraft on the tarmac, including one operated by ASKY Airlines, were also affected, though no passengers were onboard at the time.
Sources said two trucks transporting uranium materials within the base perimeter were hit, but their cargo remained intact, averting a potentially larger disaster.
There were confirmed casualties, with ambulances seen moving in and out of the base area through the night. Some of the attackers were reportedly killed, while others were arrested and taken into custody by Niger’s intelligence services.
However, the identity of those behind the assault remains unclear.
While early speculation pointed to jihadist involvement, no armed group has claimed responsibility. Other security sources told Zagazola that the operation appeared to have been launched from inside the air base, suggesting a possible mutiny rather than an external terrorist strike.
“The pattern of the attack and access to sensitive areas strongly indicate insider involvement,” one regional security analyst said.
The incident has intensified fears that Gen. Tchiani is losing control over key institutions, especially the military, raising serious implications for Niger’s stability and for neighbouring countries, including Nigeria.
Niger plays a critical role in regional security in the Sahel, and any further breakdown of command and control could create new risks for border states already battling terrorism and banditry.
As of the time of filing this report, Niger’s authorities had yet to issue an official statement on the incident.
Mysterious attack rocks Niger Air Base in Niamey, raises fears of mutiny
News
Alleged terrorism: Rescued victims filed complaints against Tukur Mamu- DSS Witness
Alleged terrorism: Rescued victims filed complaints against Tukur Mamu- DSS Witness
A Department of State Services (DSS)’ investigator, on Thursday, told the Federal High Court in Abuja that many of the rescued victims of the 2022 Abuja-Kaduna bound train attack lodged complaints in their office against alleged terrorist negotiator, Tukur Mamu.
The DSS operative, who testified as 6th prosecution witness (PW-6) in the ongoing terrorism trial of Mamu, made the disclosure to Justice Mohammed Umar while being cross-examined by the defence counsel, Johnson Usman, SAN.
The lawyer had asked the witness, who gave his testimony behind a witness screen for security reasons, “to confirm to court if any of the rescue victims, including the wife of the Commandant in Jaji, made any complaint against the defendant to the DSS.”
Responding, the witness said: “Yes, my lord.”
When Usman further asked the witness if the complaint by the rescued victims was either in writing or oral, he said it was in writing.
The DSS’ lawyer, David Kaswe, however, prayed the court to restrain Usman from delving into questions that might touch on the identity of victims or witnesses in the case since the court had granted protection to all.
Responding, Usman told the court that none of the names he called was a witness before the court.
“Even though my lord has granted an order for trial in camera, a trial in camera is not to prejudice the defendant,” he said.
The witness said he interviewed six victims in the course of the investigation.
When he was asked if the six victims were interviewed in the presence of Mamu, the PW-6 responded in the negative.
The witness told the court that he was not a vocologist, having not studied sound in higher institution.
He, however, confirmed that the audio exhibit tendered by the prosecution was the extract of the transcribed audio between Mamu and the terrorists.
When he was asked if he interviewed a former Chief of Defence Staff, General Lucky Irabor (retd.), he said the army chief was not interviewed.
The witness, however, admitted that General Abdulkadir Abubakar was interviewed in the course of investigation.
“When you interviewed him, was it in the presence of the defendant?” the lawyer asked and he said: “No my lord.”
“Did you interview Sheikh Gumi?” Usman asked and the witness responded in the affirmative.
“Was it in the presence of the defendant?” Usman asked.
“No my lord,” the witness responded.
“Did you interview Major General Idris Garba?”
“No my lord,” the PW-6 said.
“Did you interview General Jalingo?” the lawyer asked, and he said: “Yes, my lord.”
The witness said General Jalingo was not interviewed in Mamu’s presence.
“Finally, did you interviewed Hannafi of Defence Military Intelligence,” the lawyer asked and the witness responded in the negative.
“Confirm to court, whether at any time in the course of your investigation, you brought members of the Chief of Defence Staff (CDS) Committee for interview in the presence of the defendant,” Usman asked and the witness responded in the negative.
“Please confirm whether you are aware that the defendant has requested that you brought members of the CDS Committee face to face with him for interview,” the lawyer asked and the witness said: “Yes, he did.”
“Confirm whether the request of the defendant to have the CDS and others involved gathered together for interrogation was granted,” Usman asked, and the witness said:”No, my lord.”
When Usman asked the witness to confirm that Mamu told him that he is a publisher of a newspaper and magazine, the witness said: “Yes, he said so.”
When the lawyer asked the witness to confirm that Mamu told him his means of income was derived from his journalism business, the PW-6 said: “Yes, he claimed “
“As investigator, did you investigate this claim,” the lawyer asked.
“Yes, we did,” he responded.
After the cross-examination, Kaswe told the court the prosecution’s intention to close its case.
“So that we can allow the defendant to enter his defence if they are ready,” he said.
But Usman told the court that they would rather apply for a date to open their defence, .
“We will not file a no-case submission so that the world can see it and God can see it all,” he said.
Justice Umar adjourned the matter until April 23 for Mamu to open his defence.
Alleged terrorism: Rescued victims filed complaints against Tukur Mamu- DSS Witness
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