The resurgence of coups and the uncertain future of democracy in Africa

By: Zagazola Makama

The growing wave of political instability across Africa underscores the continent’s fragile democratic foundations and the deepening crisis of governance, legitimacy, and public trust. The recent developments in Madagascar and Cameroon illustrate how decades of poor governance, corruption, and military interference have converged to threaten democratic stability across the region.

On 11 October 2025, Madagascar descended once again into military rule following a coup led by Colonel Michael Randriannirina, commander of the elite Corps d’Administration des Personnel et des Services des Armées Terrestres (CAPSAT). The coup, staged in the capital city, Antananarivo, came after weeks of public protests and defections within the military, with demands for President Andry Rajoelina’s resignation.

As in previous interventions, the junta cited corruption, economic hardship, and poor service delivery particularly in electricity and water supply as justifications for their action. Rajoelina’s whereabouts remain uncertain amid reports that he fled aboard a French military plane. Despite the country’s top court directing the junta to organize elections within 60 days, Colonel Michael has declared a two-year transition period before elections are held.

The coup has drawn cautious reactions from the international community. The African Union, United Nations, and Western governments have called for restraint, while France suspended flights to Madagascar and the United States advised its citizens to shelter in place. The crisis signals the re-emergence of military dominance in Malagasy politics, reminiscent of the 2009 coup that first brought Rajoelina to power, raising fears that Colonel Michael’s youthful leadership could easily devolve into authoritarian rule.

Meanwhile, Cameroon’s 12 October 2025 presidential election has deepened tensions in an already volatile polity. President Paul Biya now seeking an unprecedented eighth term faces mounting opposition, with rival candidate Issa Tchiroma Bakary declaring victory and urging Biya to concede. The ruling party, RDPC, has dismissed such declarations, emphasizing that only the Constitutional Council can certify results. Minister of Territorial Administration, Paul Atanga Nji, further warned that any parallel announcement of results would amount to high treason.

The polls were marred by widespread allegations of vote-buying, irregularities, and intimidation. The RDPC’s sweeping victory in earlier senatorial elections reflected its entrenched control over state institutions. Compounding this is the deepening Anglophone crisis, where fighting between government forces and separatist groups continues to displace thousands. Civil society restrictions, NGO suspensions, and arrests of human rights defenders have further undermined democratic space, raising questions about the credibility and transparency of the entire process.

The election’s outcome will significantly shape Cameroon’s political trajectory. With Biya’s advanced age and the regime’s dependence on coercive control, growing frustrations among the youth and opposition may lead to renewed protests or even attempts at military intervention.

These crises in Madagascar and Cameroon unfold within a broader continental pattern of democratic decline. The failure to dismantle existing juntas in Niger, Mali, and Burkina Faso combined with the unresolved war in Sudan has emboldened new actors to seize power through unconstitutional means. Eight military regimes now govern across Africa, signaling a regression to the pre-2000 era of chronic coups.

The underlying causes remain consistent: corruption, poverty, insecurity, and elite manipulation of institutions. Militaries across the region continue to view themselves as the ultimate guardians of national stability, stepping in where civilian administrations appear weak or compromised. The inconsistent and often selective responses of regional bodies and international partners have further undermined deterrence, emboldening coup plotters and deepening cynicism toward global democratic norms.

From Madagascar and Cameroon to the recent foiled coup plot in Nigeria, where the Defence Headquarters (DHQ) under the leadership of the then Chief of Defence Staff, General Christopher Musa, successfully foiled a deadly violent coup plot aimed at toppling the federal government and democracy. Thanks to the military.

The pattern of instability reveals how corruption, weak institutions, and elite power struggles continue to erode democratic norms and threaten regional stability. Democratic governance and human rights across Africa are now at a crossroads. The continent’s modest gains over the last two decades are being rapidly reversed, with state fragility and authoritarian resurgence threatening regional peace and development.

To arrest this decline, African leaders must prioritize good governance, transparency, and inclusive economic reform to rebuild public trust. Regional organizations like the African Union and ECOWAS must adopt consistent, non-selective sanctions against unconstitutional regimes, while international partners should focus on strengthening democratic institutions rather than individual rulers.

The future of democracy in Madagascar and Cameroonian and indeed across sub-Saharan Africa depends on leaders’ willingness to uphold constitutional order, respect term limits, and deliver tangible socio-economic progress. Only through sustained political accountability and people-centered governance can Africa break the recurring cycle of coups and restore faith in democracy.

Zagazola Makama is a Counter Insurgency Expert and Security Analyst in the Lake Chad
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