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The resurgence of coups and the uncertain future of democracy in Africa
The resurgence of coups and the uncertain future of democracy in Africa
By: Zagazola Makama
The growing wave of political instability across Africa underscores the continent’s fragile democratic foundations and the deepening crisis of governance, legitimacy, and public trust. The recent developments in Madagascar and Cameroon illustrate how decades of poor governance, corruption, and military interference have converged to threaten democratic stability across the region.
On 11 October 2025, Madagascar descended once again into military rule following a coup led by Colonel Michael Randriannirina, commander of the elite Corps d’Administration des Personnel et des Services des Armées Terrestres (CAPSAT). The coup, staged in the capital city, Antananarivo, came after weeks of public protests and defections within the military, with demands for President Andry Rajoelina’s resignation.
As in previous interventions, the junta cited corruption, economic hardship, and poor service delivery particularly in electricity and water supply as justifications for their action. Rajoelina’s whereabouts remain uncertain amid reports that he fled aboard a French military plane. Despite the country’s top court directing the junta to organize elections within 60 days, Colonel Michael has declared a two-year transition period before elections are held.
The coup has drawn cautious reactions from the international community. The African Union, United Nations, and Western governments have called for restraint, while France suspended flights to Madagascar and the United States advised its citizens to shelter in place. The crisis signals the re-emergence of military dominance in Malagasy politics, reminiscent of the 2009 coup that first brought Rajoelina to power, raising fears that Colonel Michael’s youthful leadership could easily devolve into authoritarian rule.
Meanwhile, Cameroon’s 12 October 2025 presidential election has deepened tensions in an already volatile polity. President Paul Biya now seeking an unprecedented eighth term faces mounting opposition, with rival candidate Issa Tchiroma Bakary declaring victory and urging Biya to concede. The ruling party, RDPC, has dismissed such declarations, emphasizing that only the Constitutional Council can certify results. Minister of Territorial Administration, Paul Atanga Nji, further warned that any parallel announcement of results would amount to high treason.
The polls were marred by widespread allegations of vote-buying, irregularities, and intimidation. The RDPC’s sweeping victory in earlier senatorial elections reflected its entrenched control over state institutions. Compounding this is the deepening Anglophone crisis, where fighting between government forces and separatist groups continues to displace thousands. Civil society restrictions, NGO suspensions, and arrests of human rights defenders have further undermined democratic space, raising questions about the credibility and transparency of the entire process.
The election’s outcome will significantly shape Cameroon’s political trajectory. With Biya’s advanced age and the regime’s dependence on coercive control, growing frustrations among the youth and opposition may lead to renewed protests or even attempts at military intervention.
These crises in Madagascar and Cameroon unfold within a broader continental pattern of democratic decline. The failure to dismantle existing juntas in Niger, Mali, and Burkina Faso combined with the unresolved war in Sudan has emboldened new actors to seize power through unconstitutional means. Eight military regimes now govern across Africa, signaling a regression to the pre-2000 era of chronic coups.
The underlying causes remain consistent: corruption, poverty, insecurity, and elite manipulation of institutions. Militaries across the region continue to view themselves as the ultimate guardians of national stability, stepping in where civilian administrations appear weak or compromised. The inconsistent and often selective responses of regional bodies and international partners have further undermined deterrence, emboldening coup plotters and deepening cynicism toward global democratic norms.
From Madagascar and Cameroon to the recent foiled coup plot in Nigeria, where the Defence Headquarters (DHQ) under the leadership of the then Chief of Defence Staff, General Christopher Musa, successfully foiled a deadly violent coup plot aimed at toppling the federal government and democracy. Thanks to the military.
The pattern of instability reveals how corruption, weak institutions, and elite power struggles continue to erode democratic norms and threaten regional stability. Democratic governance and human rights across Africa are now at a crossroads. The continent’s modest gains over the last two decades are being rapidly reversed, with state fragility and authoritarian resurgence threatening regional peace and development.
To arrest this decline, African leaders must prioritize good governance, transparency, and inclusive economic reform to rebuild public trust. Regional organizations like the African Union and ECOWAS must adopt consistent, non-selective sanctions against unconstitutional regimes, while international partners should focus on strengthening democratic institutions rather than individual rulers.
The future of democracy in Madagascar and Cameroonian and indeed across sub-Saharan Africa depends on leaders’ willingness to uphold constitutional order, respect term limits, and deliver tangible socio-economic progress. Only through sustained political accountability and people-centered governance can Africa break the recurring cycle of coups and restore faith in democracy.
Zagazola Makama is a Counter Insurgency Expert and Security Analyst in the Lake Chad
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Troops Repel Terrorist Infiltration in Kanama, Neutralise Four Insurgents
By: Zagazola Makama
Troops of Operation HADIN KAI have repelled a Boko Haram/ISWAP terrorist infiltration into Kanama town, neutralising four insurgents during a swift response operation in Borno State.
Security sources said the incident occurred at about 6:00 p.m. on April 22 when troops of 159 Battalion, deployed in Kanama, responded to sounds of gunfire within the town.
On arrival, the troops reportedly discovered that terrorists had infiltrated parts of the community.
The troops immediately made contact and engaged the attackers with disciplined fire, forcing them to retreat in disarray.
Subsequent exploitation of the general area led to the neutralisation of four terrorists.
One member of the Civilian Joint Task Force (CJTF) sustained injuries during the encounter and has been evacuated for medical attention.
No military equipment was lost during the operation.
Items recovered from the terrorists include two torchlight mobile phones and the sum of ₦21,000.
Security sources said the general situation across the theatre remains calm but unpredictable, while troops’ morale and fighting efficiency remain high.
Troops Repel Terrorist Infiltration in Kanama, Neutralise Four Insurgents
News
Dramatic Testimony Rocks Nwaukoni Terrorism Trial In Asaba — Doctor Confirms Gunshot Wounds In Palace Attack Case
Dramatic Testimony Rocks Nwaukoni Terrorism Trial In Asaba — Doctor Confirms Gunshot Wounds In Palace Attack Case
The high-profile terrorism trial in Charge No. FHC/ASB/18C/2024 took a dramatic and gripping turn this week at the Federal High Court, Asaba, as explosive evidence and powerful witness testimonies continue to unfold against Mike Nwaukoni (aka “Supu”) and his alleged accomplices.
Standing trial alongside him are prominent figures including Barrister Francis Okolie, Secretary of the Ogwashi-Uku Development Association (ODA), and Mazi Elue Adigwe, the association’s Secretary-General, among others accused in connection with the violent October 12, 2023 attack on the Palace of the Obi of Ogwashi-Uku.
🔴 Doctor’s Testimony Leaves Court in Silence
In what court observers have described as one of the most chilling moments of the trial so far, Dr. Ezeike Ugochukwu Godwin took the witness stand and delivered a clinical yet deeply emotional account of the injuries sustained by a vigilante operative assigned to protect the Palace.
The doctor confirmed that the victim suffered multiple gunshot wounds, including injuries to the head and upper limbs, describing in precise medical terms the severity of the trauma.
According to his testimony, the victim was brought into the emergency unit in a state of intense pain and critical distress, alongside several others wounded during the attack.
Dr. Ezeike further told the court that the patient was referred from the Divisional Police Headquarters in Ogwashi-Uku, reinforcing the official chain of response following the violent incident.
🔴 Police Investigator Details Chaos and Destruction
A day earlier, on April 21, 2026, the court heard from Inspector Ijeoma Ovat, the initial Investigating Police Officer (IPO), who painted a harrowing picture of the aftermath of the attack.
She testified about the widespread chaos, multiple casualties, and destruction that followed the invasion of the Palace during the controversial Ineh Festival. Crucially, she tendered photographic evidence showing heavily damaged police and vigilante vehicles, corroborating claims of a coordinated and violent assault.
Sources within the prosecution confirm that the damage to the vehicles was extensive and consistent with armed aggression.
🔴 Witnesses Tie Defendants to Armed
AssaultEarlier testimonies in the trial have reportedly identified the defendants as active participants, alleging they were armed with guns and other dangerous weapons during the attack. Witnesses have also pointed to Mike Nwaukoni as a central figure who allegedly instigated and coordinated the operation.
🔴 Passport Request Sparks Legal Firestorm
In a fresh development that has further intensified proceedings, lead prosecutors in the case including CSP Samuel Mallum Esq and A.I Aminu Esq from the Police Legal Directorate in Abuja have strongly opposed an application by Nwaukoni’s legal team seeking the temporary release of his international passport for overseas travel.
According to sources, the prosecution argued that granting such a request poses a serious flight risk, warning that the defendant could attempt to evade justice, seek asylum, or acquire foreign citizenship.
The prosecution also suggested that the move may be a deliberate tactic to delay the trial, particularly as significant portions of the case have already been established.
The matter has been adjourned for further consideration, with hearings expected to resume in late May, continuing into early June 2026.
🔴 Calm Returns to Ogwashi-Uku Amid Trial
Meanwhile, community sources in Ogwashi-Uku report a notable return of peace and stability since the commencement of the trial. Residents have expressed hope that the judicial process will be seen through to a swift and just conclusion, bringing lasting closure to one of the most serious security incidents in the Kingdom’s recent history.
Dramatic Testimony Rocks Nwaukoni Terrorism Trial In Asaba — Doctor Confirms Gunshot Wounds In Palace Attack Case
Troops Intercept Suspected Terrorist Logistics Supplier, Seize PMS in Borno
By: Zagazola Makama
Troops of Operation HADIN KAI have arrested a suspected ISWAP/JAS logistics supplier and intercepted a large quantity of Premium Motor Spirit (PMS) concealed in a tricycle in Borno State.
Security sources said the suspect was apprehended at about 9:10 a.m. on April 21 by troops of 159 Battalion at a checkpoint within Sector 2 Area of Responsibility.
The suspect was reportedly conveying PMS concealed in 15 sacks, disguised with bags of sachet water in an attempt to evade detection.
Preliminary investigations indicated that the consignment was being transported to Kanama town and neighbouring communities around Dikwa and Bultuwa, areas believed to be within terrorist influence.
Items recovered from the suspect include a mobile phone and the sum of ₦34,950.
The sources said the suspect and recovered exhibits are in military custody for further investigation and necessary action.
They added that the interception forms part of ongoing operations aimed at disrupting terrorist logistics networks and denying them access to critical supplies across the North-East theatre.
Troops Intercept Suspected Terrorist Logistics Supplier, Seize PMS in Borno
Troops Clear Terrorist Enclaves, Recover Items in Katsina Operation
Troops Repel Terrorist Infiltration in Kanama, Neutralise Four Insurgents
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