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The resurgence of coups and the uncertain future of democracy in Africa
The resurgence of coups and the uncertain future of democracy in Africa
By: Zagazola Makama
The growing wave of political instability across Africa underscores the continent’s fragile democratic foundations and the deepening crisis of governance, legitimacy, and public trust. The recent developments in Madagascar and Cameroon illustrate how decades of poor governance, corruption, and military interference have converged to threaten democratic stability across the region.
On 11 October 2025, Madagascar descended once again into military rule following a coup led by Colonel Michael Randriannirina, commander of the elite Corps d’Administration des Personnel et des Services des Armées Terrestres (CAPSAT). The coup, staged in the capital city, Antananarivo, came after weeks of public protests and defections within the military, with demands for President Andry Rajoelina’s resignation.
As in previous interventions, the junta cited corruption, economic hardship, and poor service delivery particularly in electricity and water supply as justifications for their action. Rajoelina’s whereabouts remain uncertain amid reports that he fled aboard a French military plane. Despite the country’s top court directing the junta to organize elections within 60 days, Colonel Michael has declared a two-year transition period before elections are held.
The coup has drawn cautious reactions from the international community. The African Union, United Nations, and Western governments have called for restraint, while France suspended flights to Madagascar and the United States advised its citizens to shelter in place. The crisis signals the re-emergence of military dominance in Malagasy politics, reminiscent of the 2009 coup that first brought Rajoelina to power, raising fears that Colonel Michael’s youthful leadership could easily devolve into authoritarian rule.
Meanwhile, Cameroon’s 12 October 2025 presidential election has deepened tensions in an already volatile polity. President Paul Biya now seeking an unprecedented eighth term faces mounting opposition, with rival candidate Issa Tchiroma Bakary declaring victory and urging Biya to concede. The ruling party, RDPC, has dismissed such declarations, emphasizing that only the Constitutional Council can certify results. Minister of Territorial Administration, Paul Atanga Nji, further warned that any parallel announcement of results would amount to high treason.
The polls were marred by widespread allegations of vote-buying, irregularities, and intimidation. The RDPC’s sweeping victory in earlier senatorial elections reflected its entrenched control over state institutions. Compounding this is the deepening Anglophone crisis, where fighting between government forces and separatist groups continues to displace thousands. Civil society restrictions, NGO suspensions, and arrests of human rights defenders have further undermined democratic space, raising questions about the credibility and transparency of the entire process.
The election’s outcome will significantly shape Cameroon’s political trajectory. With Biya’s advanced age and the regime’s dependence on coercive control, growing frustrations among the youth and opposition may lead to renewed protests or even attempts at military intervention.
These crises in Madagascar and Cameroon unfold within a broader continental pattern of democratic decline. The failure to dismantle existing juntas in Niger, Mali, and Burkina Faso combined with the unresolved war in Sudan has emboldened new actors to seize power through unconstitutional means. Eight military regimes now govern across Africa, signaling a regression to the pre-2000 era of chronic coups.
The underlying causes remain consistent: corruption, poverty, insecurity, and elite manipulation of institutions. Militaries across the region continue to view themselves as the ultimate guardians of national stability, stepping in where civilian administrations appear weak or compromised. The inconsistent and often selective responses of regional bodies and international partners have further undermined deterrence, emboldening coup plotters and deepening cynicism toward global democratic norms.
From Madagascar and Cameroon to the recent foiled coup plot in Nigeria, where the Defence Headquarters (DHQ) under the leadership of the then Chief of Defence Staff, General Christopher Musa, successfully foiled a deadly violent coup plot aimed at toppling the federal government and democracy. Thanks to the military.
The pattern of instability reveals how corruption, weak institutions, and elite power struggles continue to erode democratic norms and threaten regional stability. Democratic governance and human rights across Africa are now at a crossroads. The continent’s modest gains over the last two decades are being rapidly reversed, with state fragility and authoritarian resurgence threatening regional peace and development.
To arrest this decline, African leaders must prioritize good governance, transparency, and inclusive economic reform to rebuild public trust. Regional organizations like the African Union and ECOWAS must adopt consistent, non-selective sanctions against unconstitutional regimes, while international partners should focus on strengthening democratic institutions rather than individual rulers.
The future of democracy in Madagascar and Cameroonian and indeed across sub-Saharan Africa depends on leaders’ willingness to uphold constitutional order, respect term limits, and deliver tangible socio-economic progress. Only through sustained political accountability and people-centered governance can Africa break the recurring cycle of coups and restore faith in democracy.
Zagazola Makama is a Counter Insurgency Expert and Security Analyst in the Lake Chad
End
Troops Recover Unexploded Ordnance During Patrol in Benue
By: Zagazola Makama
Troops of Operation Whirl Stroke have recovered an unexploded ordnance (UXO) during a routine patrol in Guma Local Government Area of Benue State.
Military sources told Zagazola on Tuesday that the discovery was made at about 1:10 p.m. on Saturday at Tse Orkpen, near Ukpiam, by troops of Sector 1 of the operation.
The sources said the troops spotted the unexploded ordnance while conducting a patrol and immediately secured the area to prevent any danger to residents.
According to the sources, an Explosive Ordnance Disposal (EOD) team was subsequently deployed to the location and safely recovered the device.
The recovered unexploded ordnance has been taken into military custody for further action, while security agencies continue efforts to clear operational areas of explosive remnants that could pose a threat to civilians and security personnel.
Troops Recover Unexploded Ordnance During Patrol in Benue
Troops Secure 27 Cattle After Responding to Farmland Destruction Report in Plateau
By: Zagazola Makama
Troops of Operation Enduring Peace (OPEP) have secured 27 cattle after responding to a report of farmland destruction in Bassa Local Government Area of Plateau State.
Military sources told Zagazola that the incident occurred at about 3:00 p.m. on Monday at Taagbe Village.
The sources said troops of Sector 3, Operation Enduring Peace, were deployed to the area following reports that cattle were grazing on farmlands, resulting in the destruction of crops.
Upon arrival, the troops found 27 cattle grazing unattended, with no herders present at the scene.
According to the sources, the cattle were moved to a safe location to prevent further damage to farmlands and to facilitate appropriate administrative action.
The sources added that security personnel remain on alert in the area to forestall any breakdown of law and order, while efforts are ongoing to identify the owners of the cattle and address the incident through the appropriate channels.
The intervention forms part of ongoing measures by security agencies to contain farmer-herder disputes and maintain peace in communities across Plateau State.
Troops Secure 27 Cattle After Responding to Farmland Destruction Report in Plateau
News
NADCEL 2026: 4 BRIGADE CONDUCTS 10KM ROUTE MARCH, PUBLIC SPEAKING ENGAGEMENT, FREE MEDICAL OUTREACH, AND NAOWA EDUCATIONAL OUTREACH IN BENIN CITY
PRESS RELEASE
NADCEL 2026: 4 BRIGADE CONDUCTS 10KM ROUTE MARCH, PUBLIC SPEAKING ENGAGEMENT, FREE MEDICAL OUTREACH, AND NAOWA EDUCATIONAL OUTREACH IN BENIN CITY
As part of activities marking the Nigerian Army Day Celebration (NADCEL) 2026, Headquarters 4 Brigade Nigerian Army successfully conducted a series of civil-military and operational activities, including a 10-kilometre route march, public speaking engagement, free medical outreach, and Nigerian Army Officers’ Wives Association (NAOWA) educational outreach in Benin City, Edo State.
NADCEL is the Nigerian Army’s foremost annual event dedicated to commemorating its establishment, evolution, achievements, and the sacrifices of its personnel in the defence of Nigeria’s sovereignty and territorial integrity. The celebration traces its origin to 6 July 1967, when the Nigerian Army commenced active military operations during the Nigerian Civil War following the firing of the first shot at Garkem in present-day Cross River State. Since then, 6 July has been observed annually as Nigerian Army Day, symbolising the Army’s resilience, professionalism, and unwavering commitment to national service.
Activities marking NADCEL 2026 at 4 Brigade commenced on 26 and 28 June 2026 with Juma’at prayers and an Interdenominational Church Service held at GRA and Ekehuan Cantonment respectively. The religious activities were attended by officers, soldiers, and personnel of other security agencies in Edo State. Special prayers were offered for the continued success of the Nigerian Army, the safety of serving personnel, the well-being of retired veterans, and the repose of the souls of fallen heroes who paid the supreme sacrifice in the defence of the nation.
On Friday, 3 July 2026, the Commander 4 Brigade Nigerian Army, Brigadier General Ahmed Balogun, led officers and soldiers on a 10-kilometre NADCEL route march through major streets of Benin City as part of activities commemorating the 163rd anniversary of the Nigerian Army. Speaking with journalists at the end of the exercise, the Commander stated that the route march was aimed at creating public awareness of the Nigerian Army Day Celebration while demonstrating the Brigade’s operational readiness to discharge its constitutional responsibilities. He further disclosed that this year’s celebration was unique as the Chief of Army Staff Lieutenant General W Shaibu NAM had directed all commanders to reassure Nigerians that the Nigerian Army remains fully committed to confronting emerging security threats within their respective areas of responsibility.
Following the route march, the Commander, accompanied by officers and soldiers, proceeded to Edo College Benin City, for a public speaking engagement with the school’s management and students. During the programme, a documentary highlighting the history and evolution of the Nigerian Army was screened, while students were enlightened on the various career opportunities in the Nigerian Army.
The students expressed appreciation to the Brigade Commander for the enlightening engagement, noting that they had gained valuable knowledge about the Nigerian Army and its operations. In his remarks, the Principal of the College, Mr Justice Aigbe, thanked the Brigade for organising the programme themed, “Protecting the Nation and Serving the People: A Way Forward for the Nigerian Army.” Highlights of the event included an interactive question-and-answer session during which the Commander addressed students’ questions, as well as the unveiling and presentation of educational books provided by Army Headquarters to the students.
On Saturday, 4 July 2026, Brigadier General Ahmed Balogun led staff officers, personnel of 4 Brigade Medical Centre to Amufi and neighbouring communities in Ikpoba-Okha Local Government Area of Edo State for a free medical outreach. The outreach formed part of the Brigade’s activities for NADCEL 2026 and provided free medical consultations, eye screening, reading glasses, dental care, essential drugs dispense, health education, laboratory investigations, including malaria parasite tests, hepatitis B and C screening, retroviral screening, blood sugar tests, and blood pressure checks, among other healthcare services.
Addressing beneficiaries, the Brigade Commander stated that the outreach reflected the Nigerian Army’s commitment to improving the well-being of Nigerians beyond its constitutional responsibility of defending the nation’s territorial integrity. He added that the initiative forms part of the Brigade’s non-kinetic operations aimed at strengthening relationships with host communities and appreciating critical stakeholders for their continued support to military operations.
Speaking on behalf of the community, the Ohen of Amufi Kingdom, Chief Iyi-Ewuare Asenogua, expressed profound appreciation to the Nigerian Army for bringing quality healthcare services to the community, noting that over 3,000 beneficiaries received free medical treatment during the exercise. Similarly, the Chairman of Ikpoba Hill Youth Forum, Mr Kingsley Osemwingie, described the outreach as a demonstration of the Nigerian Army’s concern for the welfare of the people, adding that the initiative had significantly improved access to quality healthcare for residents of the community.
On Monday, 6 July 2026, the Zonal Coordinator, Nigerian Army Officers’ Wives Association (NAOWA), 4 Brigade Chapter, Mrs Mariam Aina Balogun, led executive members of the Association to Army Day Secondary School, Ikpoba Hill, Benin City, for a NAOWA Educational Outreach as part of activities commemorating NADCEL 2026. The outreach, which was aimed at promoting educational development and supporting learning among students, was attended by teachers, students, and members of the school community. During the event, educational materials, including customised exercise books, pens, pencils, and erasers, were distributed to over 500 students to encourage academic excellence and support their educational pursuits.
Kennedy Anyanwu
Captain
Assistant Director Army Public Relations
4 Brigade Nigerian Army
Benin City
NADCEL 2026: 4 BRIGADE CONDUCTS 10KM ROUTE MARCH, PUBLIC SPEAKING ENGAGEMENT, FREE MEDICAL OUTREACH, AND NAOWA EDUCATIONAL OUTREACH IN BENIN CITY
Troops Recover Unexploded Ordnance During Patrol in Benue
Troops Secure 27 Cattle After Responding to Farmland Destruction Report in Plateau
Troops Arrest Suspected Terrorist Informant, Recover Motorcycle, Cash in Kebbi
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