The Silent Strategy: Why Kashim Shettima Is the Defining Force Behind the Tinubu Ticket in 2027

The Silent Strategy: Why Kashim Shettima Is the Defining Force Behind the Tinubu Ticket in 2027

By: Dr. James Bwala

In Nigerian politics, visibility is often mistaken for strength. Candidates who appear frequently on television, speak at rallies, issue bold promises, and dominate social media are commonly assumed to be the most politically active. Yet elections are not won by public appearances alone. Behind every successful political movement are networks, negotiations, strategy, organization, and patient groundwork that may not always be visible to the public.

This situation is why the claim that the All Progressives Congress is not campaigning for 2027 deserves closer examination. While Peter Obi appears across the country and Atiku Abubakar continues to speak about his plans for Nigeria, it would be a mistake to assume that the APC is inactive or that the Tinubu administration has surrendered the political space. Much of the party’s work may be taking place quietly, away from the noise of rallies and social media declarations. At the center of that quiet political strategy is Vice President Kashim Shettima, whose role may prove decisive in shaping the future of the Tinubu ticket.

The argument that Shettima is the soul of the Tinubu ticket is not based merely on loyalty or personal admiration. It is rooted in the realities of Nigerian political calculations. The vice president brings regional balance, political experience, administrative knowledge, and an understanding of the complex networks that influence national elections. Shettima has a deep understanding of the blueprints, and his contribution may not always generate dramatic headlines, but political success is often built through precisely such less visible efforts.

Those who judge political campaigns only by public appearances risk misunderstanding how power operates. Campaigning does not begin and end with rallies. It includes consultation with stakeholders, engagement with governors, coordination with party structures, dialogue with traditional leaders, relationship-building with religious and community organizations, and efforts to maintain unity within a broad political coalition. These activities may not trend online, but they can determine the outcome of an election.

The APC’s apparent silence may therefore be strategic rather than accidental. A party in government does not necessarily need to respond to every accusation or compete in daily verbal exchanges. Its political advantage includes access to state institutions, visibility through governance, contact with elected officials, and the ability to point to policies and projects already undertaken. While opposition figures may focus on promises and criticism, the governing party can campaign through a combination of performance, organization, and political alliances.

This does not mean that every action of the government should be accepted without scrutiny. Democracy requires accountability, and citizens have the right to question government policies, economic conditions, and political decisions. However, criticism should not be confused with electoral victory. A party can face public frustration and still win an election if it maintains internal unity, builds effective alliances, and presents a credible narrative to voters. Conversely, an opposition movement can attract large crowds and intense online support without converting that enthusiasm into sufficient votes.

The political strength of Kashim Shettima lies partly in his ability to operate within this complex environment. As a former governor, he understands the relationship between national politics and grassroots structures. He is familiar with the language of party organization, the importance of regional confidence, and the demands of managing competing interests. His experience in Borno also gives him a distinctive connection to the politics of the North, while his position as vice president enables him to participate in national engagement.

Shettima also brings an important dimension to the Tinubu ticket: the ability to complement, rather than duplicate, the president’s political identity. President Bola Tinubu is widely recognized as a forceful political strategist with a long history in Lagos politics and national coalition-building. Shettima, by contrast, contributes a different background and style. The strength of a political ticket often depends on whether its members can reach different audiences and reassure different constituencies. A successful ticket must be broad enough to unite people who may not share the same regional, religious, or political outlook.

This complementary relationship may become particularly important in 2027. Nigeria is a country of immense diversity, and no serious presidential campaign can rely on one region or one political personality. The Tinubu-Shettima ticket must appeal to voters across the South, the North, urban centers, rural communities, young people, business interests, traditional institutions, and organized political structures. Shettima’s role may be crucial in maintaining confidence among northern stakeholders and communicating the administration’s message in regions where political expectations are especially complex.

The opposition’s visible activity should not be dismissed. Peter Obi has developed a strong national following, particularly among young voters and citizens who desire a new political direction. His message of reform, competence, accountability, and economic transformation resonates with many Nigerians. Atiku Abubakar, meanwhile, remains an experienced national politician with an established network and a long record of presidential ambition. His continued public engagement demonstrates that the opposition space is active and competitive.

Nevertheless, visibility is not the same as organization. Peter Obi’s influence must eventually be translated into polling-unit structures, local coordination, coalition-building, and broad geographical support. Atiku must also overcome the challenges that have affected opposition politics in the past, including rivalry among leaders, divided platforms, personal ambition, and the difficulty of building a united front. Speaking about what they will do for Nigeria is important, but elections are won when political messages are supported by disciplined structures capable of mobilizing voters.

This is where the APC may have an advantage. The party has experienced officeholders at the federal and state levels, a national political structure, and access to influential actors across the country. If these resources are properly coordinated, the party can remain competitive even when its campaign activities appear less dramatic than those of its opponents. Its greatest challenge, however, will be internal. No amount of quiet strategy can compensate for division, poor communication, unpopular decisions, or failure to respond to public concerns.

The effectiveness of Shettima’s role will therefore depend on how well the administration combines political organization with governance. Nigerians are not likely to vote solely on the basis of party slogans or regional calculations. Economic hardship, unemployment, insecurity, inflation, public services, and trust in government will significantly influence the electorate. Political strategy may help secure alliances, but performance will determine whether those alliances remain convincing.

The APC’s opponents may be misjudging the political waters if they believe that the absence of constant rallies means the absence of preparation. However, the APC would also be misjudging the electorate if it assumes that quietness alone will produce victory. Silence can be strategic, but it must eventually be followed by a clear record, a persuasive message, and a credible plan for the future. The party cannot expect Nigerians to reward hidden efforts that do not produce visible improvements in their lives.

The phrase “the ghost is working in silence” captures the idea of political activity that is not immediately visible. Networks are being maintained. Alliances are being negotiated. Party leaders are assessing their positions. Stakeholders are calculating their interests. Communities are observing the government’s direction. Such processes may not appear on the front pages every day, but they form part of the foundation of electoral politics.

If the APC succeeds in coordinating these silent efforts, Atiku may face serious difficulties in converting his public engagement into a winning coalition. Peter Obi may also discover that popularity, especially among a passionate section of the electorate, must be matched by nationwide structure and strategic alliances. The shock awaiting the opposition may not be that it lacked public attention, but that it underestimated the capacity of a governing party to organize quietly while appearing publicly restrained.

Still, political predictions should be made with humility. No candidate is guaranteed victory, and no party should assume that past success will automatically be repeated. Nigerian voters are increasingly politically conscious, more willing to challenge established parties, and more attentive to issues of competence and accountability. The electorate cannot be treated as a passive audience that will simply follow party calculations. Citizens will judge the administration by what they experience and by whether its promises match reality.

For the Tinubu ticket, Kashim Shettima’s importance will therefore be measured not only by his ability to work behind the scenes but also by his capacity to communicate, build trust, defend the administration’s record, and help shape a political coalition that reflects Nigeria’s diversity. He must be more than a quiet strategist. He must also be an effective bridge between the government and citizens, between the president and party structures, and between national policy and regional expectations.

The central lesson is that political noise should never be confused with political power. Peter Obi’s visibility and Atiku Abubakar’s public promises are important parts of the 2027 contest, but they do not tell the whole story. The APC may be pursuing a different method—one based on quiet mobilization, institutional relationships, coalition-building, and the use of governing power. In that strategy, Kashim Shettima may be the critical figure whose influence becomes fully apparent only when the election draws near.

Those who are campaigning against President Tinubu and chanting “Tinubu Must Go” have every democratic right to do so. But they should not assume that public anger automatically translates into electoral victory. Nor should they overlook the political work taking place beyond the cameras. The coming contest will be decided not by who shouts the loudest, but by who builds the strongest national structure, offers the most convincing account of governance, and mobilizes voters most effectively.

The opposition may continue to rant today and tomorrow. The APC may continue to appear restrained. Yet beneath the surface, political calculations are already taking shape. If Shettima and the Tinubu camp succeed in turning silent organization into visible results and electoral mobilization, their opponents may indeed be shocked by the outcome. The “ghost” may be working quietly—but in politics, silence becomes powerful only when it is supported by strategy, performance, unity, and a clear understanding of the people.

• James Bwala, PhD, writes from Abuja.
• The Silent Strategy: Why Kashim Shettima Is the Defining Force Behind the Tinubu Ticket in 2027