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Tuareg Rebels and JNIM: A New Strategic Alliance in Mali?

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Tuareg Rebels and JNIM: A New Strategic Alliance in Mali?

By: Zagazola Makama

Mali stands at a critical turning point as fresh negotiations between the Tuareg rebels of northern Mali and the al-Qaeda-affiliated Jama’at Nasr al-Islam wal Muslimin (JNIM) gain momentum. According to sources close to both groups, these talks represent a significant shift in strategy that could fundamentally reshape the security and political landscape of the Sahel.

For the Tuareg rebels, these negotiations are a response to Mali’s recent national consultations, which called for dialogue with jihadist groups but excluded northern armed factions from the process. Additionally, Tuareg leaders argue that grassroots communities who have been caught in the crossfire of the ongoing conflict are pushing for a settlement to avoid further bloodshed.

On the other hand, the rebels say they are keen to avoid the mistakes of 2012, when the Tuareg-led National Movement for the Liberation of Azawad (MNLA) initially seized control of northern Mali, only to be overpowered by jihadist forces, leading to a rapid escalation of violence and the subsequent 2013 French military intervention.

A Shift in JNIM’s Strategy

A key factor encouraging the Tuareg rebels to engage in talks is the shifting approach of JNIM itself. Over the years, the group has evolved in its tactics, messaging, and governance strategy. Unlike the extremist brutality displayed in 2012, JNIM has refined its policies, making it a more pragmatic and structured insurgency.

According to sources close to the Tuareg rebels, JNIM’s leadership began reassessing its position following the U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan. The Taliban’s ability to consolidate power while maintaining Afghanistan’s territorial integrity served as a model. Additionally, recent jihadist dynamics in Syria further influenced JNIM’s approach, leading to a reconsideration of its long-term objectives in Mali.

Statements from key JNIM figures, including Amadou Koufa, leader of Katiba Macina, and Jafar Dicko, head of JNIM operations in Burkina Faso, indicate a growing willingness to compromise. Their recent declarations have emphasized political and governance issues rather than outright military conquest.

Most notably, a recent JNIM communiqué framed the military juntas in the region as obstacles to regional stability. The statement called for international intervention against these governments, signaling that JNIM sees an opportunity to reposition itself as a legitimate actor rather than a purely insurgent force.

This convergence of interests between Tuareg rebels and JNIM has laid the groundwork for negotiations, with both sides willing to soften their positions for mutual benefit.

Key Points of Negotiation

JNIM sources have confirmed that discussions are ongoing, with a primary focus on governance and the role of Sharia law. Historically, one of the main points of contention between the two factions has been JNIM’s strict interpretation of Islamic law, which led to the breakdown of their alliance in 2012.

However, the current negotiations propose a new governance model in which Sharia law would be implemented at the local level, but administered by community-based religious authorities rather than JNIM operatives. This compromise, according to sources, has been accepted by JNIM’s leadership.

Another major shift is JNIM’s perspective on Mali’s territorial integrity. Rather than supporting the Tuareg rebels’ long-standing push for an independent Azawad, JNIM has reportedly argued that regional and international actors would be more likely to tolerate an Islamic governance structure within a unified Mali rather than outright secession.

JNIM’s ability to convince Tuareg leaders to focus on governing northern Mali rather than seeking full independence represents a major ideological shift. The jihadist group is prepared to support Tuareg fighters in taking control of key territories, but with the understanding that these areas would be governed under an Islamic framework rather than an independent Tuareg state.

A New Governance Model for Northern Mali?

Sources close to JNIM say that if the alliance moves forward, the group is ready to coordinate and administer territories alongside Tuareg rebels. However, lessons from the 2012 conflict have prompted a change in strategy.

Rather than raising the black flag of al-Qaeda over captured cities a move that led to international military intervention in the past—JNIM plans to allow Tuareg governance structures to manage administrative affairs. This means that while JNIM would retain influence, it would avoid direct control over urban areas, instead allowing local Tuareg leadership to take the forefront.

Such a strategy could serve multiple purposes: Reducing the risk of foreign military intervention by keeping governance in the hands of local Tuareg leaders, JNIM would present a less overt threat to international powers. Legitimizing its role in Mali’s political landscape rather than being seen purely as an extremist group, JNIM could position itself as a political and security partner in the region. Avoiding the mistakes of 2012 The rapid downfall of the Tuareg rebellion in 2012 was largely due to its inability to maintain control. By working together with the rebels rather than sidelining them, JNIM aims to ensure a more sustainable presence.

The Question of Al-Qaeda Affiliation

One of the most sensitive aspects of the negotiations revolves around JNIM’s relationship with al-Qaeda’s central command. According to sources, there is ongoing internal debate about whether the group should formally distance itself from al-Qaeda.

For JNIM leaders, the question is not just ideological but also strategic. Some within the group believe that dissociating from al-Qaeda could open doors to direct negotiations with Western governments. Others argue that such a move would require religious justification, possibly linked to a major political development such as the formal independence of Azawad or the collapse of the Malian government in Bamako.

Interestingly, sources indicate that JNIM is more willing to negotiate its future with Western powers directly rather than through Tuareg intermediaries. The concern within JNIM is that Tuareg leaders could use any potential al-Qaeda split as leverage in their own diplomatic engagements with France and other international actors.

Conclusion: A Game-Changer for Mali?

If these negotiations result in a formal agreement, the implications for Mali and the wider Sahel could be profound. A coordinated Tuareg-JNIM alliance would not only reshape local power dynamics but could also alter the trajectory of jihadist movements across West Africa.

The shift in JNIM’s strategy from ideological extremism to pragmatic governance signals a broader recalibration of jihadist operations in the region. Whether this shift leads to long-term stability or another round of conflict remains to be seen.

What is clear, however, is that Mali’s security landscape is on the brink of another transformation one that could redefine the balance of power in the Sahel for years to come.

Zagazola Makama is a Counter Insurgency Expert and Security Analyst in the Lake Chad Region

Tuareg Rebels and JNIM: A New Strategic Alliance in Mali?

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BREAKING NEWS: 3 killed And 3,000 displaced as Devastating Fire Sweeps Through Kalari Settlement in Konduga, Borno State

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BREAKING NEWS: 3 killed And 3,000 displaced as Devastating Fire Sweeps Through Kalari Settlement in Konduga, Borno State

By: Zagazola Makama

A catastrophic fire has torn through the Kalari settlement in Konduga Local Government Area (LGA) of Borno State, claiming three lives and displacing over 3,000 people. The blaze, which erupted at approximately 1:00 PM, engulfed three villages, reducing more than 1,500 thatched houses to ashes.

Zagazola Makama gathered that In response to the disaster, the military, along with the Combined Joint Task Force (CJTF), mobilized swiftly to provide emergency assistance. Personnel from the 222 Battalion rendered first aid to the wounded and transported the injured to Maiduguri Specialist Hospital via Army ambulances.

The timely intervention of key local officials, including the Chairman of Konduga LGA, a Member of the House of Assembly, and the Commissioner for Environment, ensured immediate relief efforts for the affected families.

This incident comes on the heels of severe flooding that devastated Konduga LGA in September 2024, following the collapse of the Alau Dam. The flash floods from the dam’s collapse also affected Maiduguri and Jere LGAs, displacing an estimated 240,000 people. Many residents are still recovering from that catastrophe, and the latest fire disaster has further intensified the region’s humanitarian crisis.

An Official of SEMA, said the Borno State Government has made an urgent appeal for humanitarian aid to support the thousands affected by both the recent fire and previous flood disasters. Efforts are underway to provide shelter, food, and medical care to those impacted by these successive calamities.

BREAKING NEWS: 3 killed And 3,000 displaced as Devastating Fire Sweeps Through Kalari Settlement in Konduga, Borno State

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Six Die in Taraba Boat Mishap, Nine Rescued

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Six Die in Taraba Boat Mishap, Nine Rescued

By: Zagazola Makama

A boat accident on the Jole River in Lau Local Government Area of Taraba State has claimed six lives, while nine other passengers were rescued alive, the Taraba State Police Command has confirmed.

Intelligence sources told Zagazola Makama that the incident occurred on Saturday, April 5, 2025.

According to police sources, the boat was conveying 15 people when it capsized midstream. Rescue efforts led to the recovery of nine survivors, while the bodies of six passengers were later pulled from the river.

The deceased have been identified as Dadi Mallam Dotti (30), Mubarak Abdu (21), Bappa Mallam Dotti (20), Adamu Yayagardi (30), and one Madugu (22), all from Badabdi, Funakaye LGA of Gombe State, of the Terawa ethnic group. The sixth victim was Umar Gambo (34), of Zaura Ward, Damban LGA, Bauchi State, of the Karakare ethnic group.

The boat driver is currently at large, and efforts are ongoing to locate him.

The police sources said that search and recovery operations were conducted in collaboration with local divers and community volunteers.

Six Die in Taraba Boat Mishap, Nine Rescued

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Teenager Dies After Ritual Experiment by Native Doctor in Edo

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Teenager Dies After Ritual Experiment by Native Doctor in Edo

By: Zagazola Makama

The Edo State Police Command has arrested two men in connection with the death of a 14-year-old boy, Okonkwo Obina Emmanuel, following a failed ritual performance in Iyamon Village, Illushi, Ubiaja.

Police sources told Zagazola Makama that the incident was reported on April 2, 2025, by the deceased’s elder brother, Okonkwo Onyenbushi. According to the report, a self-acclaimed native doctor, Amechi Edozunor, in collaboration with one Kelvin Ugru, allegedly performed a charm ritual on the victim to make him “invulnerable to bottles.”

During the ritual, the suspects reportedly struck the boy’s head with a bottle in an attempt to prove the charm’s effectiveness, leading to a fatal head injury.

The victim was rushed to Wisdom Hospital and later referred to Ogbeide Hospital, where he died on April 5, 2025.

The sources said his remains have been deposited at the hospital mortuary for autopsy, while both suspects are currently in police custody pending further investigation.

Teenager Dies After Ritual Experiment by Native Doctor in Edo

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