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Tuareg Rebels and JNIM: A New Strategic Alliance in Mali?

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8 months ago

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Tuareg Rebels and JNIM: A New Strategic Alliance in Mali?

By: Zagazola Makama

Mali stands at a critical turning point as fresh negotiations between the Tuareg rebels of northern Mali and the al-Qaeda-affiliated Jama’at Nasr al-Islam wal Muslimin (JNIM) gain momentum. According to sources close to both groups, these talks represent a significant shift in strategy that could fundamentally reshape the security and political landscape of the Sahel.

For the Tuareg rebels, these negotiations are a response to Mali’s recent national consultations, which called for dialogue with jihadist groups but excluded northern armed factions from the process. Additionally, Tuareg leaders argue that grassroots communities who have been caught in the crossfire of the ongoing conflict are pushing for a settlement to avoid further bloodshed.

On the other hand, the rebels say they are keen to avoid the mistakes of 2012, when the Tuareg-led National Movement for the Liberation of Azawad (MNLA) initially seized control of northern Mali, only to be overpowered by jihadist forces, leading to a rapid escalation of violence and the subsequent 2013 French military intervention.

A Shift in JNIM’s Strategy

A key factor encouraging the Tuareg rebels to engage in talks is the shifting approach of JNIM itself. Over the years, the group has evolved in its tactics, messaging, and governance strategy. Unlike the extremist brutality displayed in 2012, JNIM has refined its policies, making it a more pragmatic and structured insurgency.

According to sources close to the Tuareg rebels, JNIM’s leadership began reassessing its position following the U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan. The Taliban’s ability to consolidate power while maintaining Afghanistan’s territorial integrity served as a model. Additionally, recent jihadist dynamics in Syria further influenced JNIM’s approach, leading to a reconsideration of its long-term objectives in Mali.

Statements from key JNIM figures, including Amadou Koufa, leader of Katiba Macina, and Jafar Dicko, head of JNIM operations in Burkina Faso, indicate a growing willingness to compromise. Their recent declarations have emphasized political and governance issues rather than outright military conquest.

Most notably, a recent JNIM communiqué framed the military juntas in the region as obstacles to regional stability. The statement called for international intervention against these governments, signaling that JNIM sees an opportunity to reposition itself as a legitimate actor rather than a purely insurgent force.

This convergence of interests between Tuareg rebels and JNIM has laid the groundwork for negotiations, with both sides willing to soften their positions for mutual benefit.

Key Points of Negotiation

JNIM sources have confirmed that discussions are ongoing, with a primary focus on governance and the role of Sharia law. Historically, one of the main points of contention between the two factions has been JNIM’s strict interpretation of Islamic law, which led to the breakdown of their alliance in 2012.

However, the current negotiations propose a new governance model in which Sharia law would be implemented at the local level, but administered by community-based religious authorities rather than JNIM operatives. This compromise, according to sources, has been accepted by JNIM’s leadership.

Another major shift is JNIM’s perspective on Mali’s territorial integrity. Rather than supporting the Tuareg rebels’ long-standing push for an independent Azawad, JNIM has reportedly argued that regional and international actors would be more likely to tolerate an Islamic governance structure within a unified Mali rather than outright secession.

JNIM’s ability to convince Tuareg leaders to focus on governing northern Mali rather than seeking full independence represents a major ideological shift. The jihadist group is prepared to support Tuareg fighters in taking control of key territories, but with the understanding that these areas would be governed under an Islamic framework rather than an independent Tuareg state.

A New Governance Model for Northern Mali?

Sources close to JNIM say that if the alliance moves forward, the group is ready to coordinate and administer territories alongside Tuareg rebels. However, lessons from the 2012 conflict have prompted a change in strategy.

Rather than raising the black flag of al-Qaeda over captured cities a move that led to international military intervention in the past—JNIM plans to allow Tuareg governance structures to manage administrative affairs. This means that while JNIM would retain influence, it would avoid direct control over urban areas, instead allowing local Tuareg leadership to take the forefront.

Such a strategy could serve multiple purposes: Reducing the risk of foreign military intervention by keeping governance in the hands of local Tuareg leaders, JNIM would present a less overt threat to international powers. Legitimizing its role in Mali’s political landscape rather than being seen purely as an extremist group, JNIM could position itself as a political and security partner in the region. Avoiding the mistakes of 2012 The rapid downfall of the Tuareg rebellion in 2012 was largely due to its inability to maintain control. By working together with the rebels rather than sidelining them, JNIM aims to ensure a more sustainable presence.

The Question of Al-Qaeda Affiliation

One of the most sensitive aspects of the negotiations revolves around JNIM’s relationship with al-Qaeda’s central command. According to sources, there is ongoing internal debate about whether the group should formally distance itself from al-Qaeda.

For JNIM leaders, the question is not just ideological but also strategic. Some within the group believe that dissociating from al-Qaeda could open doors to direct negotiations with Western governments. Others argue that such a move would require religious justification, possibly linked to a major political development such as the formal independence of Azawad or the collapse of the Malian government in Bamako.

Interestingly, sources indicate that JNIM is more willing to negotiate its future with Western powers directly rather than through Tuareg intermediaries. The concern within JNIM is that Tuareg leaders could use any potential al-Qaeda split as leverage in their own diplomatic engagements with France and other international actors.

Conclusion: A Game-Changer for Mali?

If these negotiations result in a formal agreement, the implications for Mali and the wider Sahel could be profound. A coordinated Tuareg-JNIM alliance would not only reshape local power dynamics but could also alter the trajectory of jihadist movements across West Africa.

The shift in JNIM’s strategy from ideological extremism to pragmatic governance signals a broader recalibration of jihadist operations in the region. Whether this shift leads to long-term stability or another round of conflict remains to be seen.

What is clear, however, is that Mali’s security landscape is on the brink of another transformation one that could redefine the balance of power in the Sahel for years to come.

Zagazola Makama is a Counter Insurgency Expert and Security Analyst in the Lake Chad Region

Tuareg Rebels and JNIM: A New Strategic Alliance in Mali?

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Troops repel ISWAP attack, rescue civilians in Borno

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8 hours ago

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October 30, 2025

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Troops repel ISWAP attack, rescue civilians in Borno

By: Zagazola Makama

Troops of Operation Hadin Kai have repelled a coordinated attack by Islamic State West Africa Province (ISWAP) and Boko Haram terrorists on Kukawa town in Borno State.

The Nigerian Army said the terrorists attempted to infiltrate several communities using civilians as human shields, but troops of 19 Brigade engaged them in a fierce battle.

A vehicle-borne improvised explosive device (VBIED) deployed by the terrorists was destroyed by a T-55 tank, while a suicide bomber was neutralised and several others fled in disarray.

In a related development, 11 family members of ISWAP fighters, including four women and seven children, surrendered to troops at Mayanti and Tango 16 in Bama Local Government Area.

Also, troops of 24 Task Force Brigade on patrol along the Dikwa–Ajiri Road discovered and safely detonated three IEDs, while Sector 3 troops arrested five suspects in Monguno town during a cordon-and-search operation.

Troops repel ISWAP attack, rescue civilians in Borno

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Borno: Swiss Government to support Borno Model on Post-Conflict Recovery

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8 hours ago

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October 30, 2025

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Borno: Swiss Government to support Borno Model on Post-Conflict Recovery

By: Our Reporter

Borno State Governor, Professor Babagana Umara Zulum, on Monday, received the new Swiss Ambassador to Nigeria, Mr Patrick Egloff, at the Government House in Maiduguri.

During the meeting, Governor Zulum expressed gratitude to the government of Switzerland for its humanitarian support, particularly the aid provided during the 2024 devastating floods that affected Maiduguri and the surrounding local governments.

He, however, emphasised the need to scale up funding and collaboration in key areas, specifically the importance of supporting victims of Boko Haram insurgency in rebuilding their livelihoods and mediation efforts.

“On behalf of the government and people of Borno State, I wish to extend our appreciation to the Swiss government for its intervention through the Nigeria Humanitarian Fund for emergencies in the North East and the 2024 flood disaster,” Governor Zulum stated.

He added, “We look forward to working with you to see how funding can be increased in some critical areas, especially in supporting victims of Boko Haram insurgency, and how we might collaborate in the field of mediation.”

Governor Zulum informed the Ambassador that the insurgency has been reduced by 90%, with more than 300,000 insurgents and their families having surrendered over the past four years.

“Borno State is now largely peaceful. Notwithstanding the intermittent attacks in some areas, most resettled communities have been able to cultivate their farmlands and their means of livelihood have significantly improved,” he said.

The Governor detailed the success of the locally developed ‘Borno Model’, which focuses on the demobilisation, deradicalisation, and reintegration of repentant insurgents. He requested Switzerland’s support in implementing the model to ensure its continued success.

In his remarks, Ambassador of Switzerland to Nigeria, Mr. Patrick Egloff, noted that Borno was the first state he had visited since assuming his post.

He commended Governor Zulum’s leadership qualities, describing it as citizen-focused and inspiring. “The leadership you provide is extremely important. Your style of governance, with its proximity to the citizens, is very much in line with European models,” Mr Egloff said.

Ambassador Egloff described Borno Model as a good initiative which his country will be willing to support.

The meeting was attended by the Chief Adviser to the Governor on Sustainable Development, Partnership, and Humanitarian Support, Dr Mairo Mandara, and the Permanent Secretary of the Ministry of Reconstruction, Rehabilitation, and Resettlement, Engineer Ali Goni, while the Ambassador was accompanied by the Senior Programme Officer at the Swiss Embassy, Aline Burki, and Senior Programme Advisor, Ahmed Abdullahi.

Borno: Swiss Government to support Borno Model on Post-Conflict Recovery

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Outbreak of Malnutrition: EU Offers Support to Nigeria

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21 hours ago

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October 29, 2025

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Outbreak of Malnutrition: EU Offers Support to Nigeria

By: Michael Mike

The European Union Parliament has decried the perennial malnutrition crisis in Northern Nigeria, promising to stand by Nigeria in addressing the issue.

The promised was made in Wednesday evening by EU parliamentarians who paid a three-day visit to Nigeria.

The leader of a six-member delegation, David MacAllister during a press conference to round up their visit, also urged the three tiers of government to urgently face the health crisis.

MacAllister said: “At the same time, ladies and gentlemen, we are deeply concerned and deeply saddened by the malnutrition crisis, in particular in north-east and north-west Nigeria.

“The European Union stands with Nigeria and the affected populations, mainly children, with the humanitarian support of nearly €50 million this year.

“But a financial commitment from Nigeria’s federal and state governments is also urgently needed to face the crisis. Thousands of children are unemployed.”

He promised that the EU will follow up the situation. “We will certainly follow up in particular on those matters and in particular on the unfolding humanitarian crisis in north-western Nigeria,” added.

He pointed out that Nigeria matters to the EU being the most populous country on the continent and one of its major economies.

He added: “So we do hope that Nigeria can also contribute to play a leading role to strengthen the EU-EU relationship, in particular on the occasion of the EU-EU summit to be held in Angola at the end of November.

“When it comes to your great country, Nigeria, we in the European Union consider Nigeria a strategic partner.”

MacAllister said his stay in Nigeria has brought him closer to unravel some of the 5,000 puzzles about the country.

He quoted an English saying: “Well, I described Nigeria to me as a puzzle of 5,000 pieces, and we have certainly set the frame in the last 48 hours, and every conversation, every briefing, every meeting we had makes me add further pieces together. And what I have always realised is the good English saying, “what is seen is better than a hundred times read”.

He said this applies to Nigeria, adding “We have started to understand better, and our main message will be that we need to be in continued engagement with the European Parliament, not only with the largest country in Africa, but also with democracy.

“Nigeria may not be a perfect democracy. Indeed, in the actual governance, you know that yourself, but this country is a democracy, and that’s why we highly respected our colleagues we met today from the different political parties, and we’re very honoured to not only be received by the President of the Senate, but also by the Deputy Speaker of the House of Representatives.”

On the European Union-African Union summit holding in Angola next month, MacAllister said “European Parliament has adopted a resolution, a particular resolution last week in Strasbourg, where the draft version, which was finally adopted between the political groups after three days of negotiations with a broad majority, kind of underlines the European Parliament’s expectation towards this summit.”

He also added: “We would like to see concrete results. We want to foster trade between Europe and Africa. We want to make our development cooperation as effective as possible, and we strongly, in the European Parliament, across party lines, believe that the future of Europe and the future of Africa are so closely linked to each other.

“Your success and the success of Africa will also be our success in Europe and vice versa.

Also speaking, the Head of EU delegation to Nigeria and ECOWAS, Ambassador Gautier Mignot said EU’s interest is to have a prosperous Nigeria.

Explaining why the EU has been magnanimous to Nigeria albeit ECOWAS, Mignot said “Of course we are doing this also because it is in our interest. Our interest is to have a prosperous, stable and democratic West Africa and in particular the main country in West Africa and in the African continent and Nigeria.

“And also, of course, we need Nigeria to partner with us to defend our common values that we are sharing, defence of natural resources in particular, on the world scene. And we need Nigeria also to make business. We need Nigeria to manage, to gather migration flows. “This is what we are doing. So we have common interests and of course this is what our partnership is based on. Nigeria matters, Nigeria matters to the European Union and our message returning to Europe, returning to Brussels will be that we believe it is time for the European Union to engage more with and in Nigeria.”

On the issue of malnutrition, the envoy said EU teams are in contact with partners who are operating different states like Katsina and Sokoto for instance, in particular in the North-West of the country.

He added: “And they ‘ve been recently on the field, so what we see is that there are still many, many families coming, mothers with babies, with children in states of severe acute malnutrition and these children are in danger of dying and some of them have died. I’ve seen myself a few weeks ago when I went to Katsina and there are also many families that do not reach these centres because they don’t know of their existence or they are just too far away to reach them. So there is really a necessity to make sure that there is no breakup in the chain of supply of the therapeutic food, which is absolutely indispensable and this requires additional funding from international donors or from national donors.

“We have seen how some state governments, Katsina for instance, have become more aware of the necessity of addressing the situation, but we need real efforts from all sides to inform the reaction to this crisis.

“So it’s very important to mobilise the necessary funds to address this situation.”

Then on the question on cooperation between the European Union and ECOWAS, he said :Our cooperation is rooted in shared values such as mutual integration, good governance and economic growth. The partnership has evolved to cover a wide range of areas including security, trade, migration and institutional capacity building. I want to underline that the European Union has supported ECOWAS through financial aid, technical assistance and political dialogue, particularly in conflict prevention, counter-terrorism and also intellectual processes.

“The EU provides support to ECOWAS regional peace, security and stability mandate to build and maintain peace, security and stability in the region to ensure conditions of development.”

Outbreak of Malnutrition: EU Offers Support to Nigeria

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