Connect with us

News

Tuareg Rebels and JNIM: A New Strategic Alliance in Mali?

Published

3 months ago

on

Tuareg Rebels and JNIM: A New Strategic Alliance in Mali?

By: Zagazola Makama

Mali stands at a critical turning point as fresh negotiations between the Tuareg rebels of northern Mali and the al-Qaeda-affiliated Jama’at Nasr al-Islam wal Muslimin (JNIM) gain momentum. According to sources close to both groups, these talks represent a significant shift in strategy that could fundamentally reshape the security and political landscape of the Sahel.

For the Tuareg rebels, these negotiations are a response to Mali’s recent national consultations, which called for dialogue with jihadist groups but excluded northern armed factions from the process. Additionally, Tuareg leaders argue that grassroots communities who have been caught in the crossfire of the ongoing conflict are pushing for a settlement to avoid further bloodshed.

On the other hand, the rebels say they are keen to avoid the mistakes of 2012, when the Tuareg-led National Movement for the Liberation of Azawad (MNLA) initially seized control of northern Mali, only to be overpowered by jihadist forces, leading to a rapid escalation of violence and the subsequent 2013 French military intervention.

A Shift in JNIM’s Strategy

A key factor encouraging the Tuareg rebels to engage in talks is the shifting approach of JNIM itself. Over the years, the group has evolved in its tactics, messaging, and governance strategy. Unlike the extremist brutality displayed in 2012, JNIM has refined its policies, making it a more pragmatic and structured insurgency.

According to sources close to the Tuareg rebels, JNIM’s leadership began reassessing its position following the U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan. The Taliban’s ability to consolidate power while maintaining Afghanistan’s territorial integrity served as a model. Additionally, recent jihadist dynamics in Syria further influenced JNIM’s approach, leading to a reconsideration of its long-term objectives in Mali.

Statements from key JNIM figures, including Amadou Koufa, leader of Katiba Macina, and Jafar Dicko, head of JNIM operations in Burkina Faso, indicate a growing willingness to compromise. Their recent declarations have emphasized political and governance issues rather than outright military conquest.

Most notably, a recent JNIM communiqué framed the military juntas in the region as obstacles to regional stability. The statement called for international intervention against these governments, signaling that JNIM sees an opportunity to reposition itself as a legitimate actor rather than a purely insurgent force.

This convergence of interests between Tuareg rebels and JNIM has laid the groundwork for negotiations, with both sides willing to soften their positions for mutual benefit.

Key Points of Negotiation

JNIM sources have confirmed that discussions are ongoing, with a primary focus on governance and the role of Sharia law. Historically, one of the main points of contention between the two factions has been JNIM’s strict interpretation of Islamic law, which led to the breakdown of their alliance in 2012.

However, the current negotiations propose a new governance model in which Sharia law would be implemented at the local level, but administered by community-based religious authorities rather than JNIM operatives. This compromise, according to sources, has been accepted by JNIM’s leadership.

Another major shift is JNIM’s perspective on Mali’s territorial integrity. Rather than supporting the Tuareg rebels’ long-standing push for an independent Azawad, JNIM has reportedly argued that regional and international actors would be more likely to tolerate an Islamic governance structure within a unified Mali rather than outright secession.

JNIM’s ability to convince Tuareg leaders to focus on governing northern Mali rather than seeking full independence represents a major ideological shift. The jihadist group is prepared to support Tuareg fighters in taking control of key territories, but with the understanding that these areas would be governed under an Islamic framework rather than an independent Tuareg state.

A New Governance Model for Northern Mali?

Sources close to JNIM say that if the alliance moves forward, the group is ready to coordinate and administer territories alongside Tuareg rebels. However, lessons from the 2012 conflict have prompted a change in strategy.

Rather than raising the black flag of al-Qaeda over captured cities a move that led to international military intervention in the past—JNIM plans to allow Tuareg governance structures to manage administrative affairs. This means that while JNIM would retain influence, it would avoid direct control over urban areas, instead allowing local Tuareg leadership to take the forefront.

Such a strategy could serve multiple purposes: Reducing the risk of foreign military intervention by keeping governance in the hands of local Tuareg leaders, JNIM would present a less overt threat to international powers. Legitimizing its role in Mali’s political landscape rather than being seen purely as an extremist group, JNIM could position itself as a political and security partner in the region. Avoiding the mistakes of 2012 The rapid downfall of the Tuareg rebellion in 2012 was largely due to its inability to maintain control. By working together with the rebels rather than sidelining them, JNIM aims to ensure a more sustainable presence.

The Question of Al-Qaeda Affiliation

One of the most sensitive aspects of the negotiations revolves around JNIM’s relationship with al-Qaeda’s central command. According to sources, there is ongoing internal debate about whether the group should formally distance itself from al-Qaeda.

For JNIM leaders, the question is not just ideological but also strategic. Some within the group believe that dissociating from al-Qaeda could open doors to direct negotiations with Western governments. Others argue that such a move would require religious justification, possibly linked to a major political development such as the formal independence of Azawad or the collapse of the Malian government in Bamako.

Interestingly, sources indicate that JNIM is more willing to negotiate its future with Western powers directly rather than through Tuareg intermediaries. The concern within JNIM is that Tuareg leaders could use any potential al-Qaeda split as leverage in their own diplomatic engagements with France and other international actors.

Conclusion: A Game-Changer for Mali?

If these negotiations result in a formal agreement, the implications for Mali and the wider Sahel could be profound. A coordinated Tuareg-JNIM alliance would not only reshape local power dynamics but could also alter the trajectory of jihadist movements across West Africa.

The shift in JNIM’s strategy from ideological extremism to pragmatic governance signals a broader recalibration of jihadist operations in the region. Whether this shift leads to long-term stability or another round of conflict remains to be seen.

What is clear, however, is that Mali’s security landscape is on the brink of another transformation one that could redefine the balance of power in the Sahel for years to come.

Zagazola Makama is a Counter Insurgency Expert and Security Analyst in the Lake Chad Region

Tuareg Rebels and JNIM: A New Strategic Alliance in Mali?

Related Topics:
Continue Reading
Click to comment

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

News

Troops in Zamfara repel bandit attacks in Maru and Tsafe LGA

Published

38 minutes ago

on

May 18, 2025

By

Troops in Zamfara repel bandit attacks in Maru and Tsafe LGA

By: Zagazola Makama

The Nigerian Army Troops of Operation FANSAN YANMA have repelled deadly bandits attacks in Maru and Tsafe Local Government Areas on May 17, 2025.

Zagazola Makama report that at about 1530hrs, armed bandits stormed Dankurji Village in Unguwar Galadima, Dansadau District, Maru LGA, where they shot and killed Malam Audu, aged 28, before escaping.

Earlier that day, at approximately 0930hrs, another bandit gang attacked Keta Town in Tsafe LGA, unleashing sporadic gunfire.

The troops of Operation Fansan Yanma engaged the bandits in a shootout and successfully repelled the attack.

During the exchange, one civilian, 12-year-old Fatima Ibrahim, was injured and promptly taken to the hospital.

She is currently responding to treatment. No casualties were reported among the security personnel.

Troops in Zamfara repel bandit attacks in Maru and Tsafe LGA

Continue Reading

Crime

Boko Haram’s new video tactics raise national security concerns

Published

2 hours ago

on

May 18, 2025

By

Boko Haram’s new video tactics raise national security concerns

By: Zagazola Makama

In an era defined by the rapid evolution of digital technologies, social media has emerged as a powerful tool for public engagement, awareness creation, and communication. However, this same medium has also been weaponised by terror groups such as Boko Haram, particularly its Islamic State West Africa Province (ISWAP) and Jama’atu Ahlis Sunna Lidda’Awati wal-Jihad (JAS) factions, to fuel violent extremism and undermine national security efforts.

Zagazola has been raising alarm following spate of Boko Haram propaganda videos, notably one featuring a youthful and energetic speaker, estimated to be between the ages of 19 and 21, appearing to revive the disbanded rhetoric and style of the late Boko Haram leader Abubakar Shekau. There were also several platforms on TikTok which job is to propagate and recycle old preaching of Muhammad Yusuf, the Founder of Boko Haram and Abubakar Shekau.

The videos, circulated widely on platforms such as TikTok and Facebook, have not only praised the resilience of the jihadist movement but also openly criticised the Nigerian government and its armed forces.

Zagazola Makama, a counter-insurgency expert monitoring developments in the Lake Chad region, described the development as “a dangerous trend capable of influencing vulnerable minds, inciting hatred against the state, and reinvigorating terrorism recruitment channels, especially among urban sympathizers.”

One of the central figures in the new video wave is allegedly an ardent follower of Bakura Doro, also known as Abu Ummaima, a senior commander of the JAS faction. However, intelligence observers are questioning the credibility and coherence of his message. “It is strange that an alleged JAS loyalist is speaking on behalf of ISWAP, a rival group that has repeatedly clashed with JAS,” a senior security source noted. “It suggests that the speaker may not be a frontline fighter, but rather an urban propagandist exploiting social media to sow confusion and fear.”

This comes amid heightened security tension in Borno State following renewed attacks by ISWAP on military positions and recent civilian killings in Mallam Karamti and Dawashi areas. In contrast, JAS has maintained a relatively lower profile since their last major confrontation with Chadian troops in 2024.

The disturbing development coincides with a broader national conversation on digital regulation and cyber monitoring, particularly as Nigeria approaches the 2027 general elections. Analysts warn that allowing such inflammatory content to thrive online not only emboldens terror groups but also poses grave implications for national stability, as hostile actors may leverage the content to erode public trust in democratic institutions.

“The fact that terror sympathisers can trend such messages unchecked is a glaring indictment of our current digital response capabilities,” Makama said. “These individuals must be tracked, their platforms dismantled, and the content removed without delay.”

There must be an improved coordination among the Nigerian Police, the Defence Intelligence Agency, and the National Information Technology Development Agency (NITDA) to map out and neutralize digital terror cells.

We must invest in cutting-edge surveillance and artificial intelligence tools to identify these digital propagandists. They are as dangerous as gunmen in the field. The battlefront has shifted; modern warfare is now fought with both bullets and bandwidth,” Zagazola warned.

He added that Nigerian authorities have in the past succeeded in working with global social media giants to remove extremist content. However, experts say the country must now institutionalise a domestic capability to detect, counter, and neutralise online threats in real time.

The National Orientation Agency and the Ministry of Communications are also being urged to scale up counter-narratives, promote digital literacy among citizens, and provide accurate, timely updates to counteract disinformation.

The time has come for Nigeria to treat the digital domain as an active battlefield one that requires as much vigilance, strategy, and firepower as any other theatre of conflict. The war is no longer only in the forests of Sambisa or the shores of Lake Chad; it is also on the screens of millions.

Zagazola Makama is a Counter Insurgency Expert and Security Analyst in the Lake Chad Region
End

Boko Haram’s new video tactics raise national security concerns

Continue Reading

News

Zulum: Borno, FG Review Strategy to Tackle Resurgence of Attacks

Published

11 hours ago

on

May 18, 2025

By

Zulum: Borno, FG Review Strategy to Tackle Resurgence of Attacks

… Urges Citizens to Observe Voluntary Fast on Monday

By: Our Reporter

Borno State Governor, Professor Babagana Umara Zulum, has announced that the state government is working on a comprehensive strategy in collaboration with the federal government to strengthen security architecture, enhance intelligence sharing, and equip security agents with necessary tools to confront the recent security threats.

Governor Zulum made the announcement on Saturday during a statewide broadcast.

He pledged to strengthen the volunteer forces, improve intelligence gathering at the community level and early warning systems as part of commitment to address the menace.

“In recent months, I have held extensive consultations with our federal partners and the leadership of various security agencies. I am pleased to inform you that the collaboration between Borno State and the Federal Government is stronger than ever. Together, we are working on comprehensive strategies to strengthen our security architecture, enhance intelligence sharing, and equip our security agents with the necessary tools to confront the threats before us,” Zulum stated.

The governor restated that the President has given an assurance to tackle the surge in the security challenges head-on.

“Indeed the Federal Republic of Nigeria, President Bola Ahmed Tinubu and all the Service Chiefs have given us assurances that they will do everything possible within their reach to bring to an end the current insecurity that we are facing in the state,”.

“we shall also strengthen our volunteer forces, comprising the CJTF, hunters, and vigilantes, and bolster our community intelligence gathering and early warning systems as part of our commitment to supporting the security agencies. Let me warn against colluding with these armed groups, either individually or as a community, as they are our collective enemy,” he assured.

The governor expressed commitment to address the water scarcity being experienced in parts of Maiduguri metropolis which was caused by the 10th September catastrophic flood disaster.

“Fellow citizens, I am aware of the ongoing water scarcity affecting parts of Maiduguri, Jere, and surrounding areas. This situation is a direct consequence of the destruction of major pipelines during the catastrophic floods of last year. Let me reassure you that my administration has been working tirelessly to restore the affected infrastructure. I appeal for your patience and understanding as we finalise efforts to fully re-establish the water supply system,” he assured.

“We are fully aware that the road to lasting peace is not an easy one. But with unity, perseverance and faith, we shall all overcome it insha Allah. I call upon all stakeholders, our traditional rulers, religious and community leaders, and indeed every citizen to join hands with us. Together, we can secure our communities, restore normalcy, and ensure that Borno thrives once again.

On the disturbing rise in criminal activities within the metropolis, the governor announced the reconstitution of the Anti-Social Vices Committee, tasked with tackling all forms of violent crime. “We will not allow criminal elements to destabilise the progress we are making, insha Allah”.

Zulum Urges Citizens to Fast on Monday

Governor Babagana Umara Zulum has called on citizens of the state to observe a voluntary fast on Monday for peace to reign in the state and country at large.

Zulum in a statewide broadcast noted that the spiritual act of seeking devine intervention would strengthen the unity and renew the resilience of the people.

“In light of our current security challenges, I am calling on all residents of Borno State to unite in a collective act of faith and solidarity. This Monday, I am inviting you to join me in a voluntary day of fasting and prayer for peace to reign in Borno State, the Northeast and indeed the entire country. Let us come together to seek divine guidance, healing, and peace for our state,” Zulum remarked.

“Fasting is more than a personal spiritual act; it is a communal expression of our shared hope. Through prayer and reflection, we can strengthen our unity, renew our resilience, and restore our collective purpose”.

“I encourage each of you to participate fully in this day of fasting. Let us pray for the safety of our families, the progress of our communities, and the lasting peace in our state and the country at large,” he concluded.

The governor commiserated with members of the Nigerian Armed Forces who lost their lives in the course of discharging their duties and prayed for their families to bear the irreparable loss.

Zulum: Borno, FG Review Strategy to Tackle Resurgence of Attacks

Continue Reading

Trending

Verified by MonsterInsights