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Tuareg Rebels and JNIM: A New Strategic Alliance in Mali?

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Tuareg Rebels and JNIM: A New Strategic Alliance in Mali?

By: Zagazola Makama

Mali stands at a critical turning point as fresh negotiations between the Tuareg rebels of northern Mali and the al-Qaeda-affiliated Jama’at Nasr al-Islam wal Muslimin (JNIM) gain momentum. According to sources close to both groups, these talks represent a significant shift in strategy that could fundamentally reshape the security and political landscape of the Sahel.

For the Tuareg rebels, these negotiations are a response to Mali’s recent national consultations, which called for dialogue with jihadist groups but excluded northern armed factions from the process. Additionally, Tuareg leaders argue that grassroots communities who have been caught in the crossfire of the ongoing conflict are pushing for a settlement to avoid further bloodshed.

On the other hand, the rebels say they are keen to avoid the mistakes of 2012, when the Tuareg-led National Movement for the Liberation of Azawad (MNLA) initially seized control of northern Mali, only to be overpowered by jihadist forces, leading to a rapid escalation of violence and the subsequent 2013 French military intervention.

A Shift in JNIM’s Strategy

A key factor encouraging the Tuareg rebels to engage in talks is the shifting approach of JNIM itself. Over the years, the group has evolved in its tactics, messaging, and governance strategy. Unlike the extremist brutality displayed in 2012, JNIM has refined its policies, making it a more pragmatic and structured insurgency.

According to sources close to the Tuareg rebels, JNIM’s leadership began reassessing its position following the U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan. The Taliban’s ability to consolidate power while maintaining Afghanistan’s territorial integrity served as a model. Additionally, recent jihadist dynamics in Syria further influenced JNIM’s approach, leading to a reconsideration of its long-term objectives in Mali.

Statements from key JNIM figures, including Amadou Koufa, leader of Katiba Macina, and Jafar Dicko, head of JNIM operations in Burkina Faso, indicate a growing willingness to compromise. Their recent declarations have emphasized political and governance issues rather than outright military conquest.

Most notably, a recent JNIM communiqué framed the military juntas in the region as obstacles to regional stability. The statement called for international intervention against these governments, signaling that JNIM sees an opportunity to reposition itself as a legitimate actor rather than a purely insurgent force.

This convergence of interests between Tuareg rebels and JNIM has laid the groundwork for negotiations, with both sides willing to soften their positions for mutual benefit.

Key Points of Negotiation

JNIM sources have confirmed that discussions are ongoing, with a primary focus on governance and the role of Sharia law. Historically, one of the main points of contention between the two factions has been JNIM’s strict interpretation of Islamic law, which led to the breakdown of their alliance in 2012.

However, the current negotiations propose a new governance model in which Sharia law would be implemented at the local level, but administered by community-based religious authorities rather than JNIM operatives. This compromise, according to sources, has been accepted by JNIM’s leadership.

Another major shift is JNIM’s perspective on Mali’s territorial integrity. Rather than supporting the Tuareg rebels’ long-standing push for an independent Azawad, JNIM has reportedly argued that regional and international actors would be more likely to tolerate an Islamic governance structure within a unified Mali rather than outright secession.

JNIM’s ability to convince Tuareg leaders to focus on governing northern Mali rather than seeking full independence represents a major ideological shift. The jihadist group is prepared to support Tuareg fighters in taking control of key territories, but with the understanding that these areas would be governed under an Islamic framework rather than an independent Tuareg state.

A New Governance Model for Northern Mali?

Sources close to JNIM say that if the alliance moves forward, the group is ready to coordinate and administer territories alongside Tuareg rebels. However, lessons from the 2012 conflict have prompted a change in strategy.

Rather than raising the black flag of al-Qaeda over captured cities a move that led to international military intervention in the past—JNIM plans to allow Tuareg governance structures to manage administrative affairs. This means that while JNIM would retain influence, it would avoid direct control over urban areas, instead allowing local Tuareg leadership to take the forefront.

Such a strategy could serve multiple purposes: Reducing the risk of foreign military intervention by keeping governance in the hands of local Tuareg leaders, JNIM would present a less overt threat to international powers. Legitimizing its role in Mali’s political landscape rather than being seen purely as an extremist group, JNIM could position itself as a political and security partner in the region. Avoiding the mistakes of 2012 The rapid downfall of the Tuareg rebellion in 2012 was largely due to its inability to maintain control. By working together with the rebels rather than sidelining them, JNIM aims to ensure a more sustainable presence.

The Question of Al-Qaeda Affiliation

One of the most sensitive aspects of the negotiations revolves around JNIM’s relationship with al-Qaeda’s central command. According to sources, there is ongoing internal debate about whether the group should formally distance itself from al-Qaeda.

For JNIM leaders, the question is not just ideological but also strategic. Some within the group believe that dissociating from al-Qaeda could open doors to direct negotiations with Western governments. Others argue that such a move would require religious justification, possibly linked to a major political development such as the formal independence of Azawad or the collapse of the Malian government in Bamako.

Interestingly, sources indicate that JNIM is more willing to negotiate its future with Western powers directly rather than through Tuareg intermediaries. The concern within JNIM is that Tuareg leaders could use any potential al-Qaeda split as leverage in their own diplomatic engagements with France and other international actors.

Conclusion: A Game-Changer for Mali?

If these negotiations result in a formal agreement, the implications for Mali and the wider Sahel could be profound. A coordinated Tuareg-JNIM alliance would not only reshape local power dynamics but could also alter the trajectory of jihadist movements across West Africa.

The shift in JNIM’s strategy from ideological extremism to pragmatic governance signals a broader recalibration of jihadist operations in the region. Whether this shift leads to long-term stability or another round of conflict remains to be seen.

What is clear, however, is that Mali’s security landscape is on the brink of another transformation one that could redefine the balance of power in the Sahel for years to come.

Zagazola Makama is a Counter Insurgency Expert and Security Analyst in the Lake Chad Region

Tuareg Rebels and JNIM: A New Strategic Alliance in Mali?

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JAMB Registrar, ASE VC task students to make good use of time

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JAMB Registrar, ASE VC task students to make good use of time
..As ASE matriculates pioneer set

By: Michael Mike

The Registrar of the Joint Admissions and Matriculation Board, Prof. Emeritus Is-haq Oloyede, has encouraged students to make a good use of their time, noting that the most important things in life are often limited in supply.

Oloyede gave this advice while making his remarks at the maiden matriculation of the African School of Economics (The Pan-African University of Excellence) in Abuja.

The JAMB Registrar noted that regardless of the students’ courses and departments, one important lesson that being students of the university should remind them of is the need to put value on what is limited because economics is about maximizing the utilisation of the limited and everyone must locate themselves within that philosophy.

Oloyede, a former Vice Chancellor of the University of Ilorin, further encouraged the students to make a judicious use of the opportunities available to them saying that the size of the university would allow them to be able to benefit maximally as the extremely large classes could not be applicable to them. He wished the university all the best and expressed hope that the students would justify the investments made in them.

In his Lecture, “Education: The Pathway to Success in Life”, the Chairman of the Board of Trustees, African School of Economics, Prof. Michael Maduagwu, emphasized the importance of education and underscored the significance of reading widely. He noted that the advent of Information and Communication Technology has made reading and learning much accessible with unlimited learning resources available to the students.

He also charged them on ethics and character noting that stories bordering on examination malpractice, bribery, cultism and sexual harassment have often been told in some Nigerian universities but they should not apply to ASE. He advised the students and the staff to set the highest standard for the university and appreciated the Vice-Chancellor for his charismatic leadership.

Earlier in his address, “Three Principles, Six Stories”, the Vice-Chancellor, Prof. Mahfouz Adedimeji, introduced the university as one with a difference, saying that the institution was conceived to address the critical challenges Africa. He said the university leverages partnership, technology and personnel to achieve functional education that transforms individuals and societies based on the core values of the university, which he identified as IDEAS meaning Integrity, Discipline, Excellence, Accountability and Service.

Adedimeji encouraged the students to embrace curiosity, cultivate resilience and maintain focus as three principles that would guarantee their success. He also spoke on the need for them to embrace faith, have trust, keep hope, demonstrate confidence, show love and maintain positive attitude at all times.

“Ultimately, always remember that you are part of something greater than yourself. You are part of a legacy of excellence, a tradition of innovation, and a commitment to making the world a better place,” he said.

Highlights of the occasion included the administration of the matriculation oath on the students by the Vice-Chancellor and remarks by the founder, Prof. Leonard Wantchecon, who shared his vision for the university and welcomed the students to the campus.

The students were also guided by the Director-General of Citizenship and Leadership Training Centre, Dr Soji Eniade; and the Registrar of the African Aviation and Aerospace University, Dr Mustapha Sheikh, represented by his Deputy Registrar, Mr Dennis Onwukwe as well as the wife of the Chairman, Dr Kate Maduagwu.

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Unreported Attacks Fueling Violence in Plateau—Stakeholders Urge Decisive Action

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Unreported Attacks Fueling Violence in Plateau—Stakeholders Urge Decisive Action

By: Zagazola Makama

Beneath the surface of Plateau State’s persistent security challenges lies a disturbing trend: the rising tide of unreported and isolated attacks, amid a silence of conspiracy, quietly fueling cycles of violence across rural communities.

The recent recovery of 58 rustled cows by Nigerian security forces in Hiktup Village, Kombun District, Mangu Local Government Area points to a much larger, largely hidden crisis that security experts say demands urgent government intervention.

According to police sources, the cows were recovered during a routine patrol on Friday evening and are currently in police custody as efforts continue to trace their rightful owners.

Zagazola Makama has previously reported how the cattle were rustled from herders in Murish village, Mangu Local Government Area after one harder was killed by a group of about 30 youths from the area. One other herder, 21-year-old Abdullahi Suleiman, remains missing. Of the rustled livestock, 11 were initially recovered.

However, response agencies remained silent, with no arrests made despite the fact that the perpetrators are known and Abdullahi Suleiman is still missing.

While this recovery represents a success for law enforcement, many similar incidents across Plateau’s vast rural landscape go unreported, either due to fear, communal distrust, or lack of access to justice. In many cases, even if perpetrators are captured, local government chairmen and traditional rulers ensure that the cases do not see the light of day.

These isolated attacks on some cattle settlements, in the name of fighting bandits, have become flashpoints for deadly reprisal attacks between farming and herding communities in Plateau State. Those who dare to speak out against it are often labeled as bandits’ apologists or terrorist sympathizers. The narrative suggests that Fulani herders are invading lands and displacing local communities.

On Monday, gunmen reportedly killed a herder named Hamza Sulaiman in the Shen community, Jos South LGA of Plateau State. The attack occurred around 12:30 p.m. while six herders were grazing. Three cattle and several sheep were also killed.

In a separate incident, 26 cattle were allegedly poisoned near the INEC office in Mangu LGA. Musa Muhammad, Secretary of MACBAN in Mangu, stated that the cattle were grazing when the poisoning occurred around 1:30 p.m. Local security personnel, including the DSS and police, visited the scene and confirmed the deaths, discovering poisoned mangoes and contaminated water.

Earlier, on April 16, about 36 cattle, reportedly belonging to one Samaila Nuhu, were poisoned at Tafi Gana Junction in Zanwar Ward of Bassa Local Government Area. The government has stated it is investigating the matter through the Ministry of Livestock Development, Veterinary Services, and Fisheries.

Security analysts are concerned that unless urgent steps are taken to address the root causes of these crimes, the state risks an escalation of violence. Each individual killed, each stolen cow, each poisoned animal represents more than just an economic loss; it triggers a cycle of revenge, widening the fault lines between communities.

The inability to swiftly prosecute culprits and ensure sincere mediation of these disputes has emboldened criminal elements, with some groups exploiting the situation to advance ethnic and religious divisions.

Stakeholders are therefore calling on the Plateau State Government and security agencies to take decisive actions against individuals and groups found to be fueling the crisis, whether through direct attacks or by inciting retaliatory violence.

They also advocate for the strengthening of community policing initiatives, the deployment of more surveillance teams in vulnerable areas, and the establishment of a comprehensive livestock identification and tracking system to against cattle rustling. Please end the Crises Now.

Zagazola Makama is a Counter-Insurgency Expert and Security Analyst in the Lake Chad Region

Unreported Attacks Fueling Violence in Plateau—Stakeholders Urge Decisive Action

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Inspector dies after altercation which led to attack by a fellow police family in Lagos barracks

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Inspector dies after altercation which led to attack by a fellow police family in Lagos barracks

By: Zagazola Makama

An Inspector, Ibrahim Usman, has died following a physical altercation involving a fellow resident and her children at the Queen Barracks, Apapa, Lagos.

Police sources told Zagazola Makama that the incident occurred on Friday at about 11:10 a.m. after a misunderstanding between W/Inspector Gambo Yusuf and the wife of the deceased, both occupants of the barracks.

In the course of the altercation, Yusuf and her children allegedly assaulted Inspector Usman, knocking him to the ground where he lost consciousness.

He was immediately rushed to the General Hospital, Apapa, where he was confirmed dead by the doctor on duty.

A team of detectives visited the scene of the incident and the hospital, where the body was inspected and photographed before being deposited at the morgue for preservation and autopsy.

Yusuf and her children have been taken into custody and are being investigated over the incident.

“The Commissioner of Police, Lagos State Command, has ordered a thorough investigation to ensure that justice is served,”said the sources.

Inspector dies after altercation which led to attack by a fellow police family in Lagos barracks

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