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War Against Niger: Why Nigeria Should Look Before It Leaps
War Against Niger: Why Nigeria Should Look Before It Leaps
By Zagazola Makama
Carefully observing the geopolitical map of AFRICA, WAGNER Operation and disassociation from WEST hegemony straddles a straight line from coasts of SENEGAL to SUDAN where a geo-strategic interest lies.
It appears the diversion is in AFRICA, which has become the proxy area for the UKRAINE – RUSSIA war.
In retrospect, the campaign against WESTERN hegemony, especially FRANCE, had eaten deep into AFRICA and has potentially no reverse, as calls rose for, first, AFRICAN leadership to own their countries’ wealth and, second, a united AFRICA.
Equally, WAGNER, an extension of RUSSIAN military diplomacy, spearheaded a Psychological Operations measure to divert attention of NATO and other WESTERN powers’ attention as EUROPE continues to become tense over the UKRAINE – RUSSIA conflict.
For now, WESTERN dominance is on the verge of pulling more resources to maintain relations with AFRICA.
Whatever the consequences, a RUSSIA-led support virus had already been inoculated into the streams of support by part of AFRICA to take sides.
This, therefore, forms the context in which the buildup of tension between the NIGERIA-led ECOWAS and NIGER REPUBLIC over the recent coup overthrowing the Mohammed Bazoum-led democratically elected government of the West African francophone nation should be viewed.
The Bola Ahmed Tinubu-led government of Nigeria seems hell-bent on leading the combined ECOWAS military to storm Niamey, root out the coupists, free Bazoum from their captivity and reinstate him president of NIGER.
There are numerous salient facts with regard to NIGERIA-NIGER Republic relations that deserve crucial consideration before the ECOWAS forces pounce on NIGER.
This consideration is imperative for NIGERIA to avoid being deceived into a proxy war that will, in the long run, cause its drastic and cataclysmic fall from the enviable heights of West African Giant and, possibly, African leadership.
The most-startling of these facts.
Seven states in NIGERIA, stretching from the North-West to the North-East geopolitical zones border NIGER. The peoples of these states savor centuries-old sociocultural affinity and amity with the peoples of the southern flank of NIGER, contributing substantially to the economies of the countries for ages.
These close ties are about to be crushed by the ECOWAS forces.
Intelligence suggests despite sanctions by ECOWAS, BENIN Republic has opened up borders to NIGER, implying its disagreement with the gang up measure against its neighbor. Suspicion places NIGERIA in tight corners as pro-WEST to act spontaneously against its neighbor.
This is possibly as part of WAGNER psychological Operation to seek further movement of the PMC personnel into NIAMEY in part and WEST AFRICA as a whole.
NIGERIA-NIGER relations have always been excellent up until now. For instance, NIGER is always actively in support of NIGERIA during Counter insurgency Operations of the Multinational Joint Task Force and provides ISR as well as Air Interdiction during most missions.
Military operations, economic transfer and numerous other friendly relations exist between both nations.
The coup may have changed the politics but has not disemboweled the close ties or similarities in cultural and social identity between NIGERIA and her neighbors.
It is assumed the target to frustrate NIGERIA’s key role economically, politically and militarily after solely containing more than a decade old insurgency is likely.
Hence, NIGERIA should continue a broader defense diplomacy with its neighbors to maintain a steady course in foreign policy.
The strong ties NIGERIA with its neighbors should be used to overcome plans to utilize AFRICA as grounds for proxy war between the WESTERN and EASTERN powers.
There is a need for NIGERIA to showcase the big-brother position in aligning with AFRICA’s unity and suggest to her neighbors that despite all shortcomings, measures other than coup may not be a solution.
There is a need to call on the leadership of MALI, BURKINA FASO, GUINEA and others to realize support for one another as well as to devise means of solving the major issues of developing strategies against terrorism and western hegemony.
It will, therefore, be unfortunate to deploy force to NIGER.
Information suggests GHANA, TOGO, GAMBIA and LIBERIA have said they will not deploy troops to NIGER. More so, Mali, Burkina Faso, and Guinea, three West African nations, have backed the coup leaders in Niger, a move that poses a threat to regional stability. this is a trap for NIGERIA.
NIGERIA, for her own good, must not fall into this trap. It could be disastrous for, first, its status in the West African region and, indeed, the entire African continent; and, second, its existence as one enviably politically, diplomatically and economically powerful entity in global affairs.
The possible abstention of some of the West African nations from the impending war is not because ECOWAS does not have the capability to deploy a force to NIGER, but because other members will not commit as much resources as expected.
Moreover, ECOWAS will have to explain why it didn’t deploy similar forces to BURKINA FASO, MALI and GUINEA where their military also toppled democratic governments.
Generally, it will be a big strategic miscalculation for NIGERIA to commit to such externalities, with the several internal challenges facing the country.
A diplomatic solution to NIGER’s problem will be the best at this moment. NIGERIA has nothing to prove to the world except its proficiency in diplomatic relations and standing tall in might as a big brother. NIGERIA’s military diplomacy should play a key role in turning key issues.
NIGERIA faces devastating consequences should the war be carried out against NIGER.
Nigeria is strategically positioned into a geographical zone that it can never Win a War on the NIGER REPUBLIC even if the Military Junta is chased out of Niamey.
The following are definite to be the price of the aggression on the NIGER REPUBLIC by ECOWAS by the West African allied forces:
First: Losing President Bazoum. For sure, the first consequences of the War on NIGER is that NIGERIA will only have the corpse of MOHAMMED BAZOUM whom PRESIDENT TINUBU led ECOWAS is so anxious to reinstate immediately Niamey is captured.
Is Nigeria or any fighter for the restoration of democracy ready for that to happen?
Second: More enmity will emanate against Nigeria within the West African region. The country will have more regional enemies than friends because all the Countries bordering NIGER REPUBLIC will not condone the aggression even if they restrain from attacking Nigeria in defense of their ally in the protection of their sovereignty.
Third: Diplomatic relations among West African nations could worsen, leading to the possible collapse of ECOWAS. This situation would be catastrophic to the economy of the region as free movement of its citizens becomes a big regional threat. Already Niger Republic is hosting over 300,000 Nigerian Refugees in Diffa, Bosso and Tumour. These IDPs are already facing stigmatization and humiliation from their host and soon they may be asked to leave.
Four: There could be a proliferation of unprecedentedly frightening forms of terrorism as a result of the presence of huge amounts of Bõko Harām Insurgents across the borders of the two countries that stretched into Mali, Burkina Faso up to the Sene-Gambian Region. Fledgeling or the collapse of ECOWAS would facilitate the infiltration of terrorist groups into the countries much easier than what happened to ISIS’s cross border operations in Syria, Iraq, Turkey and parts of Egypt’s Sinai mountainous region.
In this scenario, more massive funding will be made towards sponsoring “Terrorists Groups”, thus creating more others by International Agencies who have been enemies to “Global Peace” to control sensitively viable areas of economic importance for eventually ceaseless attacks such as the ongoing “Armed Banditry and Kidnappings” that are rampant in the Region.
Five: Inflation and economic recession is definitely going to hit Nigeria immediately the war starts, causing millions of people across the region to lose their jobs, causing high cost of living for the ordinary citizens of both countries.
Six: Famine and rampant deaths would be inevitable as a result of the hampering of all agricultural activities, with the war intensifying where massive hectares of land shall remain without being harvested for more than 75 percent of the region in the same technical manner Bõko Harām disrupts farming for than a decade throughout most parts of the North-East.
Seven: Massive migration across West Africa, and, possibly, between West Africa and other contiguous regions of the African continent would take place as refugees from both sides keep flooding the Sub-saharan region.
With Nigeria presently finding it difficult to manage the growing humanitarian crisis with millions of its Internally Displaced Persons (IDPS) due to terrorism and banditry, another unsustainable chaotic conditions will be artificially created for it to handle.
For sure, when the drums of War are beaten and the planned aggression on the NIGER REPUBLIC commences, NORTHERN NIGERIA’s (Arēwa) Region, from Gamboru to Kamba, From ILLELA/JIBIYA/MAI-ADUWA/MAIGATARI to OTURKPO would be submerged in total full scale insecurity.
This could threaten the existence of NORTHERN NIGERIA. Once NORTHERN NIGERIA is gone, the official Federation of what is known as Nigeria would be “Badly Bargained”, forever.
Nigeria should look before it leaps.
To be forewarned is to be forearmed!
Zagazola is a Counter-Insurgency expert and security analyst in the Lake Chad region.
War Against Niger: Why Nigeria Should Look Before It Leaps
News
Fire destroys 10 shops in Gusau shopping complex
Fire destroys 10 shops in Gusau shopping complex
By: Zagazola Makama
A fire outbreak has destroyed ten shops at a shopping complex in Garejin Mai Lena area of Gusau Local Government Area, Zamfara State.
Sources said the incident occurred at about 2:00 a.m. on Thursday, causing extensive property losses valued at millions of naira.
The blaze was brought under control through a joint effort by security operatives and local residents who assisted in putting out the fire.
Authorities confirmed that no lives were lost and no injuries were reported during the incident.
The cause of the fire is currently under investigation as efforts continue to assess the full extent of the damage.
Fire destroys 10 shops in Gusau shopping complex
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Boko Haram: The worse days are over….Zulum
Boko Haram: The worse days are over….Zulum
By: Bodunrin Kayode
Borno state Governor Prof Babagana Zulum has assured citizens of the state that the worse days of insurgency are over.
In a state wide broadcast as soon as he arrived from his visit to Saudi Arabia, the Governor extinguished any iota of fear in the minds of the residents adding that they should not loose hope now that a ray of hope is waiting for them at the end of the tunnel.
He noted that what residents are witnessing now is the results of the rattling of the criminals in the Timbuktu triangle which is why they are unleashing such wickedness on the citizenry.
“However, I want to reassure you that the worst days are over. We have been constantly assessing the situation, and a robust, coordinated response is already in motion.
” These cowardly elements who seek to disturb our peace will obtain no sanctuary in Borno State. We will deal decisively with their recent resurgence.
“Fellow citizens, this fight is not the responsibility of the military alone; it is a collective effort. I must emphasise the importance of cordial, close collaboration with our military.
“They are here to protect us, and they need our eyes and our ears. I extend my deepest sympathies to the families of our gallant soldiers, security personnel and our volunteer forces who have sacrificed their lives in the line of duty. My heart also goes out to every civilian whose life has been disrupted by this situation. Your resilience is the bedrock of our state, and the power of prayer in unison is a weapon no enemy can withstand.
“Furthermore, let me issue a stern warning to any individual or group that aids or collaborates with these criminals. To those who feed them with information, shelter them and their sympathisers, and provide logistical support, your time is up. You are not patriots; you are enemies of the state. You will be hunted down and made to face the full wrath of the law. Your actions betray our collective peace, and we will no longer tolerate them.”
Said Zulum.
Below is the full text of the governor’s broadcast to the state:
STATEWIDE BROADCAST BY THE EXECUTIVE GOVERNOR OF BORNO STATE, PROFESSOR BABAGANA UMARA ZULUM, ON THURSDAY, 19TH MARCH 2026
My dear good people of Borno State,
I address you today at a moment that requires both our solemn reflection and our resolute unity.
Fellow citizens, the recent resurgence of insecurity in parts of our dear state over the past few weeks is deeply concerning. As the Chief Security Officer, let me assure you that the overall security environment, while tested, remains under control, and we are doing everything possible to protect lives and property.
Over the past seven years, we have worked tirelessly to restore peace and prosperity to the great land and rebuild our state. Within the period, we have responded with prompt, positive actions on every occasion. We have not allowed the dark dreams of the wayward ones to take root, and instead, we have fostered hope and resilience among the communities affected by the conflict. Through a combination of consultations and collective planning, with the strong support of our security agencies and the civilian JTF, the Almighty Allah (SWT) has helped us achieve some measure of success and peace.
We do not believe that the decrease in past attacks signals the end of the insurgency. No, it is not. In fact, at the leadership level, we are very conscious of the fact that much more needs to be done to permanently address the root of this madness and the menace of illogical attacks among our peace-loving people.
The recent spike in activity by these criminal elements is a direct consequence of the sustained and aggressive military operations being conducted across the theatre. These operations have dislodged the criminals, forcing them to flee and seek respite by infiltrating our communities.
However, I want to reassure you that the worst days are over. We have been constantly assessing the situation, and a robust, coordinated response is already in motion. These cowardly elements who seek to disturb our peace will obtain no sanctuary in Borno State. We will deal decisively with their recent resurgence.
Fellow citizens, this fight is not the responsibility of the military alone; it is a collective effort. I must emphasise the importance of cordial, close collaboration with our military. They are here to protect us, and they need our eyes and our ears. I extend my deepest sympathies to the families of our gallant soldiers, security personnel and our volunteer forces who have sacrificed their lives in the line of duty. My heart also goes out to every civilian whose life has been disrupted by this situation. Your resilience is the bedrock of our state, and the power of prayer in unison is a weapon no enemy can withstand.
Furthermore, let me issue a stern warning to any individual or group that aids or collaborates with these criminals. To those who feed them with information, shelter them and their sympathisers, and provide logistical support, your time is up. You are not patriots; you are enemies of the state. You will be hunted down and made to face the full wrath of the law. Your actions betray our collective peace, and we will no longer tolerate them.
Let me at this juncture commend the President and Commander-in-Chief, Bola Ahmed Tinubu GCFR, for releasing the necessary funding to the Multi-National Joint Task Force (MNJT) and several other military operations across different theatres in Nigeria. This support is vital to the sustainability of the ongoing military operations.
I also wish to extend my appreciation to the Vice President, Senator Kashim Shettima, who represented the President for the sympathy visit over the recent unfortunate incident.
I also want to extend our profound gratitude to the gallant men and women of the Nigerian Armed Forces, the Nigerian Police Force, the Department of State Services (DSS), the Nigerian Security and Civil Defence Corps (NSCDC), other law enforcement agencies, our dedicated CJTF, hunters, and vigilantees. Your professionalism, bravery, and sacrifices are the only reasons we have a state to return to. The nation owes you a tremendous debt that can never be fully repaid.
To our revered traditional rulers, I appreciate your steadfastness and your role as the custodians of our culture and conscience. I am equally grateful to our religious leaders and the entire people of Borno for their relentless prayers. I want to urge my colleagues in the political class to unite and support our efforts to restore peace. Our people look up to us for leadership, not division.
My dear people, as the political season intensifies, tensions may rise. But we must align our political interests with the stark realities of our security situation, including ongoing threats from insurgent groups and the need for community stability. Let us not allow politics to undermine the hard-earned peace we have built. I therefore call on all aspirants and their supporters to prioritise the greater interests of Borno State above their personal ambitions.
Since assuming office in 2019, I have been fair, just, and inclusive in my dealings with the entire political class. My loyalty to His Excellency, the Vice President, need not be overemphasized.
Furthermore, as a leader, I have embraced all and sundry. I have never betrayed the trust of members of the national and state assemblies, as well as political office holders of Borno extraction, at the state or national level.
Therefore, I want to call on all political actors to be wary of elements seeking to exploit the current situation to create unnecessary political instability.
As we look to the future and choose a new leader for our state, I urge all citizens to pray fervently for a worthy successor. Let me remind us that power belongs to Allah and He grants it to whom He wills.
As we approach the end of Ramadan, I call on all residents, both Christians and Muslims, to use this last hour of fasting and Sallah celebration to intensify prayers for peace, unity, and stability in our state and the country at large.
Consequently, let me use this opportunity to encourage citizens of Borno to be more vigilant. As we gather to break our fast toward the end of 2026 Ramadan, let us pay attention to our environment. Let us identify strangers, report suspicious movements to security agencies, and take the necessary precautions.
Once again, and with all the emphasis I can command, I urge you all to remain calm and observe your Eid prayers within your communities.
In conclusion, I seek your understanding and forgiveness for our wrongdoings and reassure you that Borno shall not fall into the hands of Boko Haram insurgents, insha Allah.
May God bless the Federal Republic of Nigeria and the people of Borno State.
Thank you and God Bless You
Boko Haram: The worse days are over….Zulum
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Eid-el-Fitr: Senator Araraume Greets Muslims, Commends President Tinubu’s Leadership
Eid-el-Fitr: Senator Araraume Greets Muslims, Commends President Tinubu’s Leadership
By: Michael Mike
Senator Ifeanyi Araraume, a prominent chieftain of the All Progressives Congress (APC), has extended warm felicitations to Muslims in Nigeria and across the globe on the joyous occasion of Eid-el-Fitr.
In a statement to mark the end of Ramadan, Araraume highlighted the significance of the month long period of spiritual reflection, fasting, and devotion. “As Muslims gather with loved ones to share in the festivities, I join in the cheer, wishing everyone a blessed and peaceful Eid,” he said.
The Senator expressed profound appreciation to Muslim Nigerians for their contributions to the nation’s growth, describing their faith, resilience, and patriotism as beacons of hope. “Your unwavering commitment to Nigeria’s progress is truly commendable,” he stated.
As the country navigates its current challenges, Araraume called for unity, understanding, and collective effort. “Let us embrace the spirit of Eid, forgiveness, generosity, and kindness, to build a brighter future for ourselves and generations to come,” he urged.
Araraume also extended solidarity to President Bola Tinubu, a distinguished Muslim and the leader of APC, praising his visionary leadership and dedication to nation building. “President Tinubu’s commitment to serving Nigeria has been exemplary, and we assure him of our continued support,” he said.
Reaffirming the APC’s commitment to national prosperity, Araraume emphasized that the values of compassion, unity, and progress embodied by Eid align deeply with the party’s ethos. “As we mark this occasion, we reaffirm our dedication to creating a Nigeria where faith and ethnic background are not barriers to success,” he concluded.
Eid-el-Fitr: Senator Araraume Greets Muslims, Commends President Tinubu’s Leadership
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