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War Against Niger: Why Nigeria Should Look Before It Leaps

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War Against Niger: Why Nigeria Should Look Before It Leaps

By Zagazola Makama

Carefully observing the geopolitical map of AFRICA, WAGNER Operation and disassociation from WEST hegemony straddles a straight line from coasts of SENEGAL to SUDAN where a geo-strategic interest lies.

It appears the diversion is in AFRICA, which has become the proxy area for the UKRAINE – RUSSIA war.

In retrospect, the campaign against WESTERN hegemony, especially FRANCE, had eaten deep into AFRICA and has potentially no reverse, as calls rose for, first, AFRICAN leadership to own their countries’ wealth and, second, a united AFRICA.

Equally, WAGNER, an extension of RUSSIAN military diplomacy, spearheaded a Psychological Operations measure to divert attention of NATO and other WESTERN powers’ attention as EUROPE continues to become tense over the UKRAINE – RUSSIA conflict.

For now, WESTERN dominance is on the verge of pulling more resources to maintain relations with AFRICA.

Whatever the consequences, a RUSSIA-led support virus had already been inoculated into the streams of support by part of AFRICA to take sides.

This, therefore, forms the context in which the buildup of tension between the NIGERIA-led ECOWAS and NIGER REPUBLIC over the recent coup overthrowing the Mohammed Bazoum-led democratically elected government of the West African francophone nation should be viewed.

The Bola Ahmed Tinubu-led government of Nigeria seems hell-bent on leading the combined ECOWAS military to storm Niamey, root out the coupists, free Bazoum from their captivity and reinstate him president of NIGER.

There are numerous salient facts with regard to NIGERIA-NIGER Republic relations that deserve crucial consideration before the ECOWAS forces pounce on NIGER.

This consideration is imperative for NIGERIA to avoid being deceived into a proxy war that will, in the long run, cause its drastic and cataclysmic fall from the enviable heights of West African Giant and, possibly, African leadership.

The most-startling of these facts.

Seven states in NIGERIA, stretching from the North-West to the North-East geopolitical zones border NIGER. The peoples of these states savor centuries-old sociocultural affinity and amity with the peoples of the southern flank of NIGER, contributing substantially to the economies of the countries for ages.

These close ties are about to be crushed by the ECOWAS forces.

Intelligence suggests despite sanctions by ECOWAS, BENIN Republic has opened up borders to NIGER, implying its disagreement with the gang up measure against its neighbor. Suspicion places NIGERIA in tight corners as pro-WEST to act spontaneously against its neighbor.

This is possibly as part of WAGNER psychological Operation to seek further movement of the PMC personnel into NIAMEY in part and WEST AFRICA as a whole.

NIGERIA-NIGER relations have always been excellent up until now. For instance, NIGER is always actively in support of NIGERIA during Counter insurgency Operations of the Multinational Joint Task Force and provides ISR as well as Air Interdiction during most missions.

Military operations, economic transfer and numerous other friendly relations exist between both nations.

The coup may have changed the politics but has not disemboweled the close ties or similarities in cultural and social identity between NIGERIA and her neighbors.

It is assumed the target to frustrate NIGERIA’s key role economically, politically and militarily after solely containing more than a decade old insurgency is likely.

Hence, NIGERIA should continue a broader defense diplomacy with its neighbors to maintain a steady course in foreign policy.

The strong ties NIGERIA with its neighbors should be used to overcome plans to utilize AFRICA as grounds for proxy war between the WESTERN and EASTERN powers.

There is a need for NIGERIA to showcase the big-brother position in aligning with AFRICA’s unity and suggest to her neighbors that despite all shortcomings, measures other than coup may not be a solution.

There is a need to call on the leadership of MALI, BURKINA FASO, GUINEA and others to realize support for one another as well as to devise means of solving the major issues of developing strategies against terrorism and western hegemony.

It will, therefore, be unfortunate to deploy force to NIGER.

Information suggests GHANA, TOGO, GAMBIA and LIBERIA have said they will not deploy troops to NIGER. More so, Mali, Burkina Faso, and Guinea, three West African nations, have backed the coup leaders in Niger, a move that poses a threat to regional stability. this is a trap for NIGERIA.

NIGERIA, for her own good, must not fall into this trap. It could be disastrous for, first, its status in the West African region and, indeed, the entire African continent; and, second, its existence as one enviably politically, diplomatically and economically powerful entity in global affairs.

The possible abstention of some of the West African nations from the impending war is not because ECOWAS does not have the capability to deploy a force to NIGER, but because other members will not commit as much resources as expected.

Moreover, ECOWAS will have to explain why it didn’t deploy similar forces to BURKINA FASO, MALI and GUINEA where their military also toppled democratic governments.

Generally, it will be a big strategic miscalculation for NIGERIA to commit to such externalities, with the several internal challenges facing the country.

A diplomatic solution to NIGER’s problem will be the best at this moment. NIGERIA has nothing to prove to the world except its proficiency in diplomatic relations and standing tall in might as a big brother. NIGERIA’s military diplomacy should play a key role in turning key issues.

NIGERIA faces devastating consequences should the war be carried out against NIGER.

Nigeria is strategically positioned into a geographical zone that it can never Win a War on the NIGER REPUBLIC even if the Military Junta is chased out of Niamey.

The following are definite to be the price of the aggression on the NIGER REPUBLIC by ECOWAS by the West African allied forces:

First: Losing President Bazoum. For sure, the first consequences of the War on NIGER is that NIGERIA will only have the corpse of MOHAMMED BAZOUM whom PRESIDENT TINUBU led ECOWAS is so anxious to reinstate immediately Niamey is captured.

Is Nigeria or any fighter for the restoration of democracy ready for that to happen?

Second: More enmity will emanate against Nigeria within the West African region. The country will have more regional enemies than friends because all the Countries bordering NIGER REPUBLIC will not condone the aggression even if they restrain from attacking Nigeria in defense of their ally in the protection of their sovereignty.

Third: Diplomatic relations among West African nations could worsen, leading to the possible collapse of ECOWAS. This situation would be catastrophic to the economy of the region as free movement of its citizens becomes a big regional threat. Already Niger Republic is hosting over 300,000 Nigerian Refugees in Diffa, Bosso and Tumour. These IDPs are already facing stigmatization and humiliation from their host and soon they may be asked to leave.

Four: There could be a proliferation of unprecedentedly frightening forms of terrorism as a result of the presence of huge amounts of Bõko Harām Insurgents across the borders of the two countries that stretched into Mali, Burkina Faso up to the Sene-Gambian Region. Fledgeling or the collapse of ECOWAS would facilitate the infiltration of terrorist groups into the countries much easier than what happened to ISIS’s cross border operations in Syria, Iraq, Turkey and parts of Egypt’s Sinai mountainous region.

In this scenario, more massive funding will be made towards sponsoring “Terrorists Groups”, thus creating more others by International Agencies who have been enemies to “Global Peace” to control sensitively viable areas of economic importance for eventually ceaseless attacks such as the ongoing “Armed Banditry and Kidnappings” that are rampant in the Region.

Five: Inflation and economic recession is definitely going to hit Nigeria immediately the war starts, causing millions of people across the region to lose their jobs, causing high cost of living for the ordinary citizens of both countries.

Six: Famine and rampant deaths would be inevitable as a result of the hampering of all agricultural activities, with the war intensifying where massive hectares of land shall remain without being harvested for more than 75 percent of the region in the same technical manner Bõko Harām disrupts farming for than a decade throughout most parts of the North-East.

Seven: Massive migration across West Africa, and, possibly, between West Africa and other contiguous regions of the African continent would take place as refugees from both sides keep flooding the Sub-saharan region.

With Nigeria presently finding it difficult to manage the growing humanitarian crisis with millions of its Internally Displaced Persons (IDPS) due to terrorism and banditry, another unsustainable chaotic conditions will be artificially created for it to handle.

For sure, when the drums of War are beaten and the planned aggression on the NIGER REPUBLIC commences, NORTHERN NIGERIA’s (Arēwa) Region, from Gamboru to Kamba, From ILLELA/JIBIYA/MAI-ADUWA/MAIGATARI to OTURKPO would be submerged in total full scale insecurity.

This could threaten the existence of NORTHERN NIGERIA. Once NORTHERN NIGERIA is gone, the official Federation of what is known as Nigeria would be “Badly Bargained”, forever.

Nigeria should look before it leaps.
To be forewarned is to be forearmed!

Zagazola is a Counter-Insurgency expert and security analyst in the Lake Chad region.

War Against Niger: Why Nigeria Should Look Before It Leaps

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NCTC, UNODC Inaugurate Working Group to Counter Criminal and Terrorist Finance in Nigeria’s Mineral Sector

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NCTC, UNODC Inaugurate Working Group to Counter Criminal and Terrorist Finance in Nigeria’s Mineral Sector

By: Michael Mike

The National Counter Terrorism Centre (NCTC), Office of the National Security Adviser (ONSA), in collaboration with the United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime (UNODC), and with the support of the Government of Canada, has established a Technical Working Group (TWG) on Mineral Crime and Terrorism Financing.

Nigeria’s mineral sector, particularly artisanal and small-scale gold mining, has increasingly been exploited by criminal and terrorist networks.

These illicit activities have continued to deprive the government of vital tax and royalty revenues, weaken state capacity to deliver essential services, and fuel instability nationwide. By exploiting regulatory gaps and opaque value chains, criminal groups disguise illicit proceeds, perpetuating conflict and organized crime in the country.

The TWG, comprising representatives of law enforcement, intelligence and other security agencies,  including those of other strategic MDAs and the Presidential Artisanal Gold Mining Initiative (PAGMI) under the latest agreement, will collaborate to strengthen the nation’s criminal justice capacity to address illicit financial flows tied to terrorism financing and money laundering in the mining sector by coordinating individual agency responses, supporting national efforts, and guiding policy reforms.

It will also promote community resilience in artisanal mining regions while integrating gender equality and human rights into government interventions.

 In his keynote speech at the inaugural meeting of the working group, the NCTC National Coordinator,  Major General Adamu Garba Laka, who was represented by the Centre’s Director of Preventing and Countering Violent Extremism, Ambassador Mairo Musa Abbas underscored the Federal Government of Nigeria’s commitment to cutting off terrorist financing at its source, including in the mineral sector.

He said: “Nigeria’s mineral resources remain some of the most valuable national assets we possess. Yet in recent years, the growing exploitation of these resources by criminal syndicates and violent extremist elements has become a significant threat. This is not merely a theoretical risk; it is a lived reality in several regions of our country, where illegal mining intersects with banditry, insurgency, arms trafficking and cross-border smuggling. In past years, the NCTC has recorded remarkable progress in strengthening Nigeria’s counter-terrorism financing architecture. Today’s initiative builds on this momentum. Protecting our mineral resources from criminal capture is not only a security imperative, but it is also a development imperative, an economic imperative and, ultimately, a sovereign duty.”

On his part, UNODC Country Representative for Nigeria, Mr Cheikh Toure,, in his remarks conveyed by Mr Tom Parker, Head of the UNODC  Counter Terrorism Unit, praised the leadership of the NCTC, while emphasising that “Illegal mining, and the illicit financial flows generated by this activity, undermine Nigeria’s stability and development. The creation of this interagency Working Group by the NCTC is an important step in reversing this trend. UNODC is committed to strengthening Nigeria’s capacity to detect, investigate, and prosecute financial crimes linked to terrorism and organized crime. Collaboration is fundamental to defeating criminal and terrorist threats, and helps foster shared learning and policy innovation.”

Funded by the Government of Canada, UNODC is working closely with the NCTC together with agencies like Economic and Financial Crimes Commission, National Financial Intelligence Unit, the Mining Marshals Corps and the Ministry of Solid Minerals Development to build Nigeria’s capacity towards combating illicit financial flows linked to Nigeria’s mineral sector by deepening analysis of relationship between mineral-related crimes and the financing of terrorism, strengthening supervision in the financial sector by equipping both private and government actors to detect suspicious transactions, and supporting the effective investigation, prosecution, and adjudication of money laundering and terrorism financing cases at the state and federal levels.

NCTC, UNODC Inaugurate Working Group to Counter Criminal and Terrorist Finance in Nigeria’s Mineral Sector

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NCoS empowers 120 inmates in Gombe

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NCoS empowers 120 inmates in Gombe

By Peter Uwumarogie

The Nigerian Correctional Service (NCoS) says it has trained 120 inmates in vocational skills in six custodial centres in Gombe State.

The Controller of Corrections, Mr Felix Agada, said this during the graduation ceremony of the inmates on Wednesday at Tula community in Kaltungo Local Government Area of the state.

He said the initiative was of part of the mandate of the service to reform and rehabilitate inmates into better citizens upon their release from the centres.

“The aim of this skill acquisition is to achieve the Reformation, Rehabilitation and Reintegration programme of the service.

“This is to ensure that inmates become useful to themselves and the society at large after discharge to reduce the rate of crime among the youths in our communities,” he said.

Agada said the programme was being initiated and supported in collaboration with the state Chief Judge, Justice Halima Mohammed, and Smart Ideas Multi Consult Ltd.

He commended the state government’s support towards empowering the inmates and ensuring that they return to their communities with dignity upon serving out their jail terms.

Also, Justice Mohammed said her belief that everyone deserved opportunity to become better citizens moved her to initiate the programme.

She said that studies had shown that where well-structured rehabilitation and skill acquisition exist for inmates, crime rate drops drastically by more than half because “opportunity is the antidote to crime.

“In Nigeria, correctional centres were not designed to be the permanent destination; they are meant to be a bridge back into the society, not warehouse for human potential.

“Without skills, inmates who have served out their terms can not compete, without support they cannot stand, and without acceptance, they cannot start again,” she said.

Mohammed said the initiative was borne out of the need to ensure that every ex-inmate did not go back to crime but to become a “tax payer, business starter and an artisan.

“This is important because every ex inmate lost to the street is a child without a provider, community without peace and a country without productivity.”

She lauded the government’s role in reforming inmates, and stressed the need for societal support to effectively address the task of skilling every inmate while providing them with starter packs upon their release.

“Correctional reform is not a project, it’s a partnership, not a policy but a social contract; today’s fund raising is not charity but nation building, security management, economic investment and a moral duty.”

The judge therefore advocated for collective support to empower inmates with the right skills and tools.

According to Mohammed, investment in that regard is an investment in safer streets, stronger families and a more hopeful country.

Mr Musa Nelson, Head of Skills Acquisition Programmes, NCoS, said the inmates were exposed to carpentry, tailoring, fashion design, cosmetology, shoe and bags making, laundry, barbing and make up.

He said the inmates would be provided with starter packs after their six-month training exercise.

Some of the inmates commended the gesture and urged stakeholders to assist them with the required tools in line with their area of training to enable them to set up their businesses.

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Coup D’etat: Odumegwu-Ojukwu Calls for Defence of Constitution Order

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Coup D’etat: Odumegwu-Ojukwu Calls for Defence of Constitution Order


….Challenges ECOWAS to Meet Yearnings of Youth

By: Michael Mike

Minister of State Foreign Affairs, Amb. Bianca Odumegwu-Ojukwu has called on members of the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) to remain steadfast in defending constitutional order, promoting inclusive political dialogue, and supporting credible transitions that reinforce stability.

Odumegwu-Ojukwu, who also called
for the acceleration of economic integration in the sub-region, challenged ECOWAS to meet the yearning of the regional youth who are looking up to the regional body to create opportunities for them.

Odumegwu-Ojukwu, spoke on Wednesday at the opening of the 95th Ordinary Session of the ECOWAS Council of Minister in Abuja.

The Nigeria’s minister while noting that as ECOWAS is still basking in the euphoria of the golden jubilee celebration, the Regional body must confront its challenges headlong.

She identified the recent surge in military take over, banditry and kidnappings as some of the challenges.

According to her: “Recent years have witnessed political instability and lack of inclusivity, including forceful unconstitutional changes of government, deliberate prolonged transitions, and governance uncertainties and deficits in a number of Member States. These situations challenge not only the democratic values to which we have all subscribed, but also threaten hard-won development gains. They undermine citizen confidence and weaken the regional cohesion that has defined ECOWAS for half a century.

“We must therefore remain steadfast in defending constitutional order, promoting inclusive political dialogue, and supporting credible transitions that reinforce stability. Our unity and collective resolve are essential to navigating these periods of uncertainty.”

She added: “At the heart of ECOWAS lies the aspiration for economic integration that delivers tangible benefits for our community citizens. It is this ideal of shared markets, interconnected infrastructure, increased mobility, and coordinated development that inspired our founding fathers to establish the regional body and has guided our Community since 1975.

“Today more than ever, we must accelerate these efforts. Our region’s future depends on deepening intra-regional trade, strengthening value chains, facilitating investments, and creating opportunities for the over 400 million people, especially the young people of 25 years and below who constitute about 65% of the population. They no doubt rely on ECOWAS to chart a path toward progress.”

She also noted the ECOWAS at 50 celebration that is still running, offered an opportunity to reflect deeply on our achievements over the past five decades.

“We celebrated the establishment of free movement, significant trade and economic integration frameworks, regional peacekeeping leadership, improved cooperation in critical sectors from health to infrastructure, and ongoing efforts to address the problems of insecurity in the region. Our accomplishments stand as a powerful testament to the vision of our founders, who understood that West Africa’s greatest strength is forged through unity, solidarity, and collective progress. Moving forward, we are inspired to reach even higher, nurturing a region defined by peace, prosperity, and limitless possibilities for generations to come.”

She therefore reminded the gathering that their insights and decisions will be instrumental in shaping the recommendations to be submitted to the Authority of Heads of State and Government.

On his part, the Sierra Leonian Minister of Foreign Affairs and Regional Integration, Timothy Kabba stressed the need to be persistent in the integration efforts.

Kabba who is also the Chairman of ECOWAS Council of Ministers said: “We must persist in our effort to foster an environment conducive to the growth of the private sector, the principal catalyst of the economic integration agenda. While it is acknowledged that integration may sometimes invoke complex sovereignty issues, it is ultimately advantageous to all Member States.

“Furthermore, it is imperative that we demonstrate a robust commitment to the promotion and enhancement of trade within the subregion.”

He also lamented the current trade gaps in the sub-region, describing it as the lowest when compared to other regions of the world.

He therefore called for the resuscitation of all trade mechanisms to boost intra-regional trade and investment.

According to him: “The current percentage of intra-regional trade lags behind that of other regions. To address this disparity, we should utilize existing mechanisms to foster greater regional economic collaboration, such as the ECOWAS trade liberalization scheme, the ECOWAS investment code, improve transport and energy connectivity, and promote digital transformation as a catalyst for innovation.

“In addition, we must address non-tariff barriers, modernize and operationalize brotherhoods, and improve the joint border management process. We must also prepare our region to fully capitalize on the opportunities presented by the African Continental Free Trade Agreement, which directly advances our internal integration agenda.”

Speaking on the current security and political situation in the region, Kabba said: “They can only be resolved through enhanced cooperation and mutual understanding among our member states. “Consequently, we must assist in investing in peace and security initiatives both through joint border operations, joint intelligence cooperation, and mediation efforts, activate the ECOWAS Standard Force, and provide support to member states facing threat.
“In addition, it is essential to ensure that diligent diplomacy, strategic leadership, political dialogue, military cooperation, and development assistance are integrated effectively to address the root causes and foster long-term resilience and sustainability.”

He charged members of the council of ministers to “seize this opportunity to reflect on the broader security and governance challenges confronting our region, and to renew our collective determination to safeguard peace, protect democratic institutions, and ensure that the aspirations of our peoples for stability and development are not derailed.
Our region has endured too many disruptions to democratic order.
“Let us stand together firmly and in solidarity to defend the principles of democracy, transparency, and the people’s right to choose their leaders.”

Coup D’etat: Odumegwu-Ojukwu Calls for Defence of Constitution Order

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