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War Against Niger: Why Nigeria Should Look Before It Leaps

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War Against Niger: Why Nigeria Should Look Before It Leaps

By Zagazola Makama

Carefully observing the geopolitical map of AFRICA, WAGNER Operation and disassociation from WEST hegemony straddles a straight line from coasts of SENEGAL to SUDAN where a geo-strategic interest lies.

It appears the diversion is in AFRICA, which has become the proxy area for the UKRAINE – RUSSIA war.

In retrospect, the campaign against WESTERN hegemony, especially FRANCE, had eaten deep into AFRICA and has potentially no reverse, as calls rose for, first, AFRICAN leadership to own their countries’ wealth and, second, a united AFRICA.

Equally, WAGNER, an extension of RUSSIAN military diplomacy, spearheaded a Psychological Operations measure to divert attention of NATO and other WESTERN powers’ attention as EUROPE continues to become tense over the UKRAINE – RUSSIA conflict.

For now, WESTERN dominance is on the verge of pulling more resources to maintain relations with AFRICA.

Whatever the consequences, a RUSSIA-led support virus had already been inoculated into the streams of support by part of AFRICA to take sides.

This, therefore, forms the context in which the buildup of tension between the NIGERIA-led ECOWAS and NIGER REPUBLIC over the recent coup overthrowing the Mohammed Bazoum-led democratically elected government of the West African francophone nation should be viewed.

The Bola Ahmed Tinubu-led government of Nigeria seems hell-bent on leading the combined ECOWAS military to storm Niamey, root out the coupists, free Bazoum from their captivity and reinstate him president of NIGER.

There are numerous salient facts with regard to NIGERIA-NIGER Republic relations that deserve crucial consideration before the ECOWAS forces pounce on NIGER.

This consideration is imperative for NIGERIA to avoid being deceived into a proxy war that will, in the long run, cause its drastic and cataclysmic fall from the enviable heights of West African Giant and, possibly, African leadership.

The most-startling of these facts.

Seven states in NIGERIA, stretching from the North-West to the North-East geopolitical zones border NIGER. The peoples of these states savor centuries-old sociocultural affinity and amity with the peoples of the southern flank of NIGER, contributing substantially to the economies of the countries for ages.

These close ties are about to be crushed by the ECOWAS forces.

Intelligence suggests despite sanctions by ECOWAS, BENIN Republic has opened up borders to NIGER, implying its disagreement with the gang up measure against its neighbor. Suspicion places NIGERIA in tight corners as pro-WEST to act spontaneously against its neighbor.

This is possibly as part of WAGNER psychological Operation to seek further movement of the PMC personnel into NIAMEY in part and WEST AFRICA as a whole.

NIGERIA-NIGER relations have always been excellent up until now. For instance, NIGER is always actively in support of NIGERIA during Counter insurgency Operations of the Multinational Joint Task Force and provides ISR as well as Air Interdiction during most missions.

Military operations, economic transfer and numerous other friendly relations exist between both nations.

The coup may have changed the politics but has not disemboweled the close ties or similarities in cultural and social identity between NIGERIA and her neighbors.

It is assumed the target to frustrate NIGERIA’s key role economically, politically and militarily after solely containing more than a decade old insurgency is likely.

Hence, NIGERIA should continue a broader defense diplomacy with its neighbors to maintain a steady course in foreign policy.

The strong ties NIGERIA with its neighbors should be used to overcome plans to utilize AFRICA as grounds for proxy war between the WESTERN and EASTERN powers.

There is a need for NIGERIA to showcase the big-brother position in aligning with AFRICA’s unity and suggest to her neighbors that despite all shortcomings, measures other than coup may not be a solution.

There is a need to call on the leadership of MALI, BURKINA FASO, GUINEA and others to realize support for one another as well as to devise means of solving the major issues of developing strategies against terrorism and western hegemony.

It will, therefore, be unfortunate to deploy force to NIGER.

Information suggests GHANA, TOGO, GAMBIA and LIBERIA have said they will not deploy troops to NIGER. More so, Mali, Burkina Faso, and Guinea, three West African nations, have backed the coup leaders in Niger, a move that poses a threat to regional stability. this is a trap for NIGERIA.

NIGERIA, for her own good, must not fall into this trap. It could be disastrous for, first, its status in the West African region and, indeed, the entire African continent; and, second, its existence as one enviably politically, diplomatically and economically powerful entity in global affairs.

The possible abstention of some of the West African nations from the impending war is not because ECOWAS does not have the capability to deploy a force to NIGER, but because other members will not commit as much resources as expected.

Moreover, ECOWAS will have to explain why it didn’t deploy similar forces to BURKINA FASO, MALI and GUINEA where their military also toppled democratic governments.

Generally, it will be a big strategic miscalculation for NIGERIA to commit to such externalities, with the several internal challenges facing the country.

A diplomatic solution to NIGER’s problem will be the best at this moment. NIGERIA has nothing to prove to the world except its proficiency in diplomatic relations and standing tall in might as a big brother. NIGERIA’s military diplomacy should play a key role in turning key issues.

NIGERIA faces devastating consequences should the war be carried out against NIGER.

Nigeria is strategically positioned into a geographical zone that it can never Win a War on the NIGER REPUBLIC even if the Military Junta is chased out of Niamey.

The following are definite to be the price of the aggression on the NIGER REPUBLIC by ECOWAS by the West African allied forces:

First: Losing President Bazoum. For sure, the first consequences of the War on NIGER is that NIGERIA will only have the corpse of MOHAMMED BAZOUM whom PRESIDENT TINUBU led ECOWAS is so anxious to reinstate immediately Niamey is captured.

Is Nigeria or any fighter for the restoration of democracy ready for that to happen?

Second: More enmity will emanate against Nigeria within the West African region. The country will have more regional enemies than friends because all the Countries bordering NIGER REPUBLIC will not condone the aggression even if they restrain from attacking Nigeria in defense of their ally in the protection of their sovereignty.

Third: Diplomatic relations among West African nations could worsen, leading to the possible collapse of ECOWAS. This situation would be catastrophic to the economy of the region as free movement of its citizens becomes a big regional threat. Already Niger Republic is hosting over 300,000 Nigerian Refugees in Diffa, Bosso and Tumour. These IDPs are already facing stigmatization and humiliation from their host and soon they may be asked to leave.

Four: There could be a proliferation of unprecedentedly frightening forms of terrorism as a result of the presence of huge amounts of Bõko Harām Insurgents across the borders of the two countries that stretched into Mali, Burkina Faso up to the Sene-Gambian Region. Fledgeling or the collapse of ECOWAS would facilitate the infiltration of terrorist groups into the countries much easier than what happened to ISIS’s cross border operations in Syria, Iraq, Turkey and parts of Egypt’s Sinai mountainous region.

In this scenario, more massive funding will be made towards sponsoring “Terrorists Groups”, thus creating more others by International Agencies who have been enemies to “Global Peace” to control sensitively viable areas of economic importance for eventually ceaseless attacks such as the ongoing “Armed Banditry and Kidnappings” that are rampant in the Region.

Five: Inflation and economic recession is definitely going to hit Nigeria immediately the war starts, causing millions of people across the region to lose their jobs, causing high cost of living for the ordinary citizens of both countries.

Six: Famine and rampant deaths would be inevitable as a result of the hampering of all agricultural activities, with the war intensifying where massive hectares of land shall remain without being harvested for more than 75 percent of the region in the same technical manner Bõko Harām disrupts farming for than a decade throughout most parts of the North-East.

Seven: Massive migration across West Africa, and, possibly, between West Africa and other contiguous regions of the African continent would take place as refugees from both sides keep flooding the Sub-saharan region.

With Nigeria presently finding it difficult to manage the growing humanitarian crisis with millions of its Internally Displaced Persons (IDPS) due to terrorism and banditry, another unsustainable chaotic conditions will be artificially created for it to handle.

For sure, when the drums of War are beaten and the planned aggression on the NIGER REPUBLIC commences, NORTHERN NIGERIA’s (Arēwa) Region, from Gamboru to Kamba, From ILLELA/JIBIYA/MAI-ADUWA/MAIGATARI to OTURKPO would be submerged in total full scale insecurity.

This could threaten the existence of NORTHERN NIGERIA. Once NORTHERN NIGERIA is gone, the official Federation of what is known as Nigeria would be “Badly Bargained”, forever.

Nigeria should look before it leaps.
To be forewarned is to be forearmed!

Zagazola is a Counter-Insurgency expert and security analyst in the Lake Chad region.

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Six cows poisoned as attacks on pastoral livelihoods escalate in Plateau

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Six cows poisoned as attacks on pastoral livelihoods escalate in Plateau

By: Zagazola Makama

A series of coordinated attacks targeting cattle and Fulani settlements across Plateau State has intensified fears of a widening reprisal cycle, with the latest incident involving the poisoning of six cows in Bokkos Local Government Area (LGA).

On Feb. 11 at about 8:30 a.m., six cows belonging to Alhaji Bello Haruna and Iliya Yusuf, both of Rwam Village in Mushere District, Bokkos LGA, were reportedly poisoned at Tulus and Rwam villages. Two of the cows died instantly, while four others were slaughtered after showing signs consistent with poisoning.

In the same development, Militia suspected to be from the Birom ethnic group attacked a Fulani settlement in Tulus Village, Horop, setting ablaze two houses belonging to Kadiri Adamu and Hashimu Adamu. Community sources said the coordinated targeting of livestock and residences indicated deliberate mischief designed to provoke tension and displacement.

The Bokkos incident followed an earlier case in Riyom LGA. The Fulani community in Riyom reported that a cow belonging to Anas Likita, a resident of Luggere in Jol Ward, was attacked and seriously injured by individuals suspected to be youths from Jol community.

Abdullahi Yusuf, the Leader of the Fulani community in Riyom, while calling for calm, condemned the act and commended the swift response of Operation Rainbow personnel stationed in Jol, who assisted in evacuating the injured cow to its owner. They also praised Operation Enduring Peace, Sector 6, for timely intervention and professional handling of the situation, urging residents to remain calm and allow security agencies to investigate.

“Such incidents only increase tension and undermine ongoing efforts toward peace and stability in Riyom LGA,” the community said in a statement signed by Abdullahi Yusuf on Feb. 9.

Zagazola report that the latest incidents align with a disturbing pattern of systematic attacks on pastoral assets across Plateau State.

On Feb. 2, one cow was shot dead at Weren Camp, Riyom LGA, while three others were poisoned in Kwi Village. Reports said toxic substances were concealed inside oranges and deliberately placed along grazing fields. The attack occurred in the afternoon, and the assailants escaped immediately after the shooting.

Also on Feb. 2 in Kwi Village, three cows were poisoned using what veterinary sources described as a sophisticated method: toxic substances hidden inside oranges placed along known grazing paths. The cattle ingested the poisoned fruits and collapsed. The method was assessed as deliberate, malicious and targeted.

The sophistication of hiding poison in oranges suggests premeditation and an intent to kill livestock without direct confrontation,” a local veterinary officer said. The attackers fled immediately after the shooting at Weren Camp, leaving the community in fear and uncertainty.

The pattern of attacks intensified in December 2025. On Dec. 12, armed elements attacked Nding Community in Fan District, Barkin Ladi LGA, and rustled approximately 137 cattle belonging to three herders. The attackers were heavily armed, operated in groups and drove the cattle into forested terrain.

Barely 24 hours later, on Dec. 13, at Kukukah Community in Jos East LGA, 34 cows were rustled by armed assailants. That same day, in Kwi Village, Riyom LGA, nine cows reportedly died after ingesting poisoned substances, following earlier rustling incidents. Community leaders said the sequence of events suggested emerging reprisal dynamics.

On Dec. 16, armed Fulani bandits attacked an illegal mining site at Tosho Community, Fan District, Barkin Ladi LGA, allegedly to recover previously rustled cattle. The attack resulted in 12 fatalities, three abductions and several injuries, and triggered further retaliatory violence across the zone.

Between Dec. 18 and 19, retaliatory attacks were reported in Dorong Village, Foron District, Barkin Ladi LGA, where four children were killed, and in Gero Village, Jos South LGA, where additional livestock were killed in reprisal actions.

On Dec. 27, five Fulani youths returning from Kara Cattle Market were ambushed along Bukuru Express Road near Angle D in Jos South LGA. The victims sustained critical gunshot wounds and were evacuated to the Jos University Teaching Hospital for emergency treatment.

The attacks are increasingly targeted, symbolic and livelihood-destructive. The objective appears to be forced displacement of pastoralists in Plateau state and demographic pressure in affected LGAs.

Zagazola report that the cumulative intelligence points to a structured escalation cycle, livestock poisoning leads to cattle rustling, which in turn triggers retaliatory raids and civilian casualties.

While armed militias and bandit elements are exploiting grievances. Weak deterrence is allowing non-state actors especially those inaugurated by the Plateau state government to function as de facto security forces in some rural areas, thereby committing heinous atrocities under the guise of protecting communities.

Zagazola warned that failure to decisively interrupt the cycle risks normalising reprisal attacks, expanding militia influence and eroding state authority.

Six cows poisoned as attacks on pastoral livelihoods escalate in Plateau

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Targeting Kwankwaso over Twitter exchange with U.S. lawmaker Riley Moore is witch-hunt

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Targeting Kwankwaso over Twitter exchange with U.S. lawmaker Riley Moore is witch-hunt

By: Zagazola Makama.

The inclusion of former Kano State Governor and Senator Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso in a proposed U.S. bill on religious freedom is nothing but a witch-hunt and grave injustice, as it is not based on any evidence but on a public disagreement with US Reps Riley Moore on X otherwise known as Twitter.

The proposed Nigeria Religious Freedom and Accountability Act of 2026, sponsored by U.S. Representatives Riley Moore and Chris Smith, seeks to sanction Fulani militias and Kwankwaso over alleged Christian persecution in Nigeria.

However, critics argue that Kwankwaso’s inclusion followed his Twitter (X) exchange with Rep. Moore, rather than any proven role in religious violations.

Naming Kwankwaso among those accused of supporting Christian persecution without a shred of evidence simply because he challenged Rep. Moore’s narrative online is witch-hunting and injustice.

The disagreement followed President Donald Trump’s recent designation of Nigeria as a “Country of Particular Concern” over alleged violations of religious freedom.

In response, Kwankwaso issued a statement expressing concern over what he described as “heightened pronouncements” on Nigeria by the U.S. President, warning that such rhetoric could deepen divisions rather than address the country’s real security challenges.

“I have noted with increasing concern the heightened pronouncements on Nigeria by President Donald Trump. This follows his designation of Nigeria as a ‘country of particular concern’,” Kwankwaso said.

He stressed that Nigeria was a sovereign nation facing threats from outlaw groups that did not discriminate based on religion, ethnicity or politics.

“These threats come from terrorist and criminal networks whose victims are both Muslims and Christians. What Nigeria needs is support in technology, intelligence and operational capacity, not threats that polarise our people,” he said.

Kwankwaso also urged unity among Nigerians and called on the Federal Government to strengthen diplomatic engagement with the United States through special envoys and permanent ambassadors.

“To my fellow countrymen, this is an important moment where we should emphasise unity of belonging over division. God bless Nigeria,” he added.

In a swift reaction on X (formerly Twitter), Rep. Moore accused Kwankwaso of hypocrisy and linked him to alleged religious persecution in Northern Nigeria.

“Governor, do you care to comment on your own complicity in the death of Christians? You instituted Sharia law. You signed the law that makes so-called blasphemy punishable by death,” Moore wrote.

The U.S. lawmaker’s post appeared to connect Kwankwaso’s role in implementing Sharia law in Kano State during his tenure as governor to ongoing concerns about religious freedom in Nigeria.

The U.S. lawmaker’s reaction shifted from policy debate to personal targeting. This is not accountability. It is retaliation for speaking back.

Linking Sharia law directly to what is happening today with Bandits, Boko Haram and ISWAP is misleading. Sharia law is part of Nigeria’s constitutional federal structure. It is not genocide. Terrorism is. The real killers of Christians, Muslims and other faithfuls alike are Boko Haram, ISWAP, bandits, JNIM and Lakurawa, not Kwankwaso.”

Based on records, Kano State, under Kwankwaso’s leadership, confronted Boko Haram cells and prevented the group from establishing a foothold in the state during the peak of the insurgency.

Kano was the only state in the North-West that averted bloodshed by decisively confronting the Boko Haram cells and brought their activities to a standstill. At a time when Boko Haram was expanding across northern Nigeria, Kano shut down their recruitment networks, dismantled logistics cells and prevented the sect from gaining territorial control. That record alone contradicts any claim that Kwankwaso enabled religious extremism.

Security Analyst, Bulama Bukarti, wrote “Truth be told, Kwankwaso is among the most moderate and pro-Nigeria politicians the country has ever produced. Naming him in the U.S. House bill as the sole individual to be sanctioned is not only unfair but plainly erroneous. His name should be withdrawn from the bill without delay.

“More broadly, this episode exposes the poor quality of the information underpinning the so-called “Christian genocide” narrative. Its proponents just generate and circulate unsubstantiated claims and then rely on those same claims as evidence,”he said.

As off now, no evidence has ever been presented linking Kwankwaso to acts of Christian persecution. Kano under Kwankwaso did not witness any attacks on Christians.

Therefore, using foreign legislation to punish political figures for online disagreements sets a dangerous precedent. If foreign lawmakers can label Nigerian politicians as persecutors simply because of Twitter arguments, then this is no longer about human rights, it is about political intimidation. Such actions undermine Nigeria’s sovereignty and fuel sectarian tension. Justice requires evidence. Not tweets. Not grudges. Not activism.

Targeting Kwankwaso over Twitter exchange with U.S. lawmaker Riley Moore is witch-hunt

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New VC Mohamed Tahir Tours YSU ….Pledges Improved Welfare for Staff and Students

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New VC Mohamed Tahir Tours YSU ….Pledges Improved Welfare for Staff and Students

By: Bodunrin kayode

The new Vice-Chancellor of Yobe State University (YSU), Prof. Muhammad Tahir, has embarked on his first official tour of key facilities within the institution.

He did so recently as a mark of hitting the ground running even as he declared that the happiness and welfare of staff and students will be a top priority of his administration.

Prof. Tahir emphasized during the tour that “staff and students must be happy,” stressing that to him, a conducive working and learning environment is essential for academic excellence.

He noted that his leadership would focus on improving staff welfare, creating a pleasant workplace atmosphere, and enhancing the overall learning conditions for students.

The Vice-Chancellor assured members of the University community that deliberate efforts would be made to upgrade students’ learning environment, including lecture halls, laboratories, and hostel accommodations.

In his view, comfortable and well-maintained hostels are critical to students’ academic performance and well-being as they transit to becoming professionals in their chosen fields of study.

Prof. Tahir also underscored the importance of cleanliness across the University campus, directing that all faculties and units must maintain high standards of hygiene on a daily basis.

The VC described a clean environment as a reflection of discipline, responsibility, and institutional pride which he noted would be the spice of the University community.

On discipline, the Vice-Chancellor made it clear that truancy and absenteeism among staff would not be tolerated. He pledged to instill a culture of commitment and accountability, noting that academic excellence can only thrive where duties are taken seriously.

“We must ensure proper maintenance of our infrastructure and properties. What we have must be preserved and managed responsibly,” he stated, calling for collective ownership in safeguarding university facilities.

The Vice-Chancellor also met with the Director of the University Consultancy Unit, where he stressed the urgent need to boost the institution’s internally generated revenue ( IGR).

Prof Tahir noted that the University must not rely solely on government subvention, emphasizing that innovative and sustainable investment initiatives should be explored for it’s sustainability.

He charged the Consultancy Unit to develop viable business ventures, strengthen partnerships, and expand professional services that would generate income for the University.

To him, increased revenue would enhance infrastructural development, improve staff welfare, and support a more conducive environment for teaching, learning, and research.

Prof. Tahir has so far visited the University Library, Faculty of Sciences, the Desert Research Centre and Career Services, Centre for Qur’anic Studies, Consultancy Unit and Centre for Research and Capacity Development on Humanitarian Development.

At each stop, he interacted with staff, assessed ongoing activities, and listened to concerns and suggestions aimed at improving productivity and service delivery.

The tour marks the beginning of what observers describe as a proactive and reform-driven administration, as the Vice-Chancellor sets the tone for a new era of accountability, welfare improvement, and infrastructural sustainability at YSU.

New VC Mohamed Tahir Tours YSU ….Pledges Improved Welfare for Staff and Students

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