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War Against Niger: Why Nigeria Should Look Before It Leaps

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War Against Niger: Why Nigeria Should Look Before It Leaps

By Zagazola Makama

Carefully observing the geopolitical map of AFRICA, WAGNER Operation and disassociation from WEST hegemony straddles a straight line from coasts of SENEGAL to SUDAN where a geo-strategic interest lies.

It appears the diversion is in AFRICA, which has become the proxy area for the UKRAINE – RUSSIA war.

In retrospect, the campaign against WESTERN hegemony, especially FRANCE, had eaten deep into AFRICA and has potentially no reverse, as calls rose for, first, AFRICAN leadership to own their countries’ wealth and, second, a united AFRICA.

Equally, WAGNER, an extension of RUSSIAN military diplomacy, spearheaded a Psychological Operations measure to divert attention of NATO and other WESTERN powers’ attention as EUROPE continues to become tense over the UKRAINE – RUSSIA conflict.

For now, WESTERN dominance is on the verge of pulling more resources to maintain relations with AFRICA.

Whatever the consequences, a RUSSIA-led support virus had already been inoculated into the streams of support by part of AFRICA to take sides.

This, therefore, forms the context in which the buildup of tension between the NIGERIA-led ECOWAS and NIGER REPUBLIC over the recent coup overthrowing the Mohammed Bazoum-led democratically elected government of the West African francophone nation should be viewed.

The Bola Ahmed Tinubu-led government of Nigeria seems hell-bent on leading the combined ECOWAS military to storm Niamey, root out the coupists, free Bazoum from their captivity and reinstate him president of NIGER.

There are numerous salient facts with regard to NIGERIA-NIGER Republic relations that deserve crucial consideration before the ECOWAS forces pounce on NIGER.

This consideration is imperative for NIGERIA to avoid being deceived into a proxy war that will, in the long run, cause its drastic and cataclysmic fall from the enviable heights of West African Giant and, possibly, African leadership.

The most-startling of these facts.

Seven states in NIGERIA, stretching from the North-West to the North-East geopolitical zones border NIGER. The peoples of these states savor centuries-old sociocultural affinity and amity with the peoples of the southern flank of NIGER, contributing substantially to the economies of the countries for ages.

These close ties are about to be crushed by the ECOWAS forces.

Intelligence suggests despite sanctions by ECOWAS, BENIN Republic has opened up borders to NIGER, implying its disagreement with the gang up measure against its neighbor. Suspicion places NIGERIA in tight corners as pro-WEST to act spontaneously against its neighbor.

This is possibly as part of WAGNER psychological Operation to seek further movement of the PMC personnel into NIAMEY in part and WEST AFRICA as a whole.

NIGERIA-NIGER relations have always been excellent up until now. For instance, NIGER is always actively in support of NIGERIA during Counter insurgency Operations of the Multinational Joint Task Force and provides ISR as well as Air Interdiction during most missions.

Military operations, economic transfer and numerous other friendly relations exist between both nations.

The coup may have changed the politics but has not disemboweled the close ties or similarities in cultural and social identity between NIGERIA and her neighbors.

It is assumed the target to frustrate NIGERIA’s key role economically, politically and militarily after solely containing more than a decade old insurgency is likely.

Hence, NIGERIA should continue a broader defense diplomacy with its neighbors to maintain a steady course in foreign policy.

The strong ties NIGERIA with its neighbors should be used to overcome plans to utilize AFRICA as grounds for proxy war between the WESTERN and EASTERN powers.

There is a need for NIGERIA to showcase the big-brother position in aligning with AFRICA’s unity and suggest to her neighbors that despite all shortcomings, measures other than coup may not be a solution.

There is a need to call on the leadership of MALI, BURKINA FASO, GUINEA and others to realize support for one another as well as to devise means of solving the major issues of developing strategies against terrorism and western hegemony.

It will, therefore, be unfortunate to deploy force to NIGER.

Information suggests GHANA, TOGO, GAMBIA and LIBERIA have said they will not deploy troops to NIGER. More so, Mali, Burkina Faso, and Guinea, three West African nations, have backed the coup leaders in Niger, a move that poses a threat to regional stability. this is a trap for NIGERIA.

NIGERIA, for her own good, must not fall into this trap. It could be disastrous for, first, its status in the West African region and, indeed, the entire African continent; and, second, its existence as one enviably politically, diplomatically and economically powerful entity in global affairs.

The possible abstention of some of the West African nations from the impending war is not because ECOWAS does not have the capability to deploy a force to NIGER, but because other members will not commit as much resources as expected.

Moreover, ECOWAS will have to explain why it didn’t deploy similar forces to BURKINA FASO, MALI and GUINEA where their military also toppled democratic governments.

Generally, it will be a big strategic miscalculation for NIGERIA to commit to such externalities, with the several internal challenges facing the country.

A diplomatic solution to NIGER’s problem will be the best at this moment. NIGERIA has nothing to prove to the world except its proficiency in diplomatic relations and standing tall in might as a big brother. NIGERIA’s military diplomacy should play a key role in turning key issues.

NIGERIA faces devastating consequences should the war be carried out against NIGER.

Nigeria is strategically positioned into a geographical zone that it can never Win a War on the NIGER REPUBLIC even if the Military Junta is chased out of Niamey.

The following are definite to be the price of the aggression on the NIGER REPUBLIC by ECOWAS by the West African allied forces:

First: Losing President Bazoum. For sure, the first consequences of the War on NIGER is that NIGERIA will only have the corpse of MOHAMMED BAZOUM whom PRESIDENT TINUBU led ECOWAS is so anxious to reinstate immediately Niamey is captured.

Is Nigeria or any fighter for the restoration of democracy ready for that to happen?

Second: More enmity will emanate against Nigeria within the West African region. The country will have more regional enemies than friends because all the Countries bordering NIGER REPUBLIC will not condone the aggression even if they restrain from attacking Nigeria in defense of their ally in the protection of their sovereignty.

Third: Diplomatic relations among West African nations could worsen, leading to the possible collapse of ECOWAS. This situation would be catastrophic to the economy of the region as free movement of its citizens becomes a big regional threat. Already Niger Republic is hosting over 300,000 Nigerian Refugees in Diffa, Bosso and Tumour. These IDPs are already facing stigmatization and humiliation from their host and soon they may be asked to leave.

Four: There could be a proliferation of unprecedentedly frightening forms of terrorism as a result of the presence of huge amounts of Bõko Harām Insurgents across the borders of the two countries that stretched into Mali, Burkina Faso up to the Sene-Gambian Region. Fledgeling or the collapse of ECOWAS would facilitate the infiltration of terrorist groups into the countries much easier than what happened to ISIS’s cross border operations in Syria, Iraq, Turkey and parts of Egypt’s Sinai mountainous region.

In this scenario, more massive funding will be made towards sponsoring “Terrorists Groups”, thus creating more others by International Agencies who have been enemies to “Global Peace” to control sensitively viable areas of economic importance for eventually ceaseless attacks such as the ongoing “Armed Banditry and Kidnappings” that are rampant in the Region.

Five: Inflation and economic recession is definitely going to hit Nigeria immediately the war starts, causing millions of people across the region to lose their jobs, causing high cost of living for the ordinary citizens of both countries.

Six: Famine and rampant deaths would be inevitable as a result of the hampering of all agricultural activities, with the war intensifying where massive hectares of land shall remain without being harvested for more than 75 percent of the region in the same technical manner Bõko Harām disrupts farming for than a decade throughout most parts of the North-East.

Seven: Massive migration across West Africa, and, possibly, between West Africa and other contiguous regions of the African continent would take place as refugees from both sides keep flooding the Sub-saharan region.

With Nigeria presently finding it difficult to manage the growing humanitarian crisis with millions of its Internally Displaced Persons (IDPS) due to terrorism and banditry, another unsustainable chaotic conditions will be artificially created for it to handle.

For sure, when the drums of War are beaten and the planned aggression on the NIGER REPUBLIC commences, NORTHERN NIGERIA’s (Arēwa) Region, from Gamboru to Kamba, From ILLELA/JIBIYA/MAI-ADUWA/MAIGATARI to OTURKPO would be submerged in total full scale insecurity.

This could threaten the existence of NORTHERN NIGERIA. Once NORTHERN NIGERIA is gone, the official Federation of what is known as Nigeria would be “Badly Bargained”, forever.

Nigeria should look before it leaps.
To be forewarned is to be forearmed!

Zagazola is a Counter-Insurgency expert and security analyst in the Lake Chad region.

War Against Niger: Why Nigeria Should Look Before It Leaps

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IPCR: Declaration of State of Emergency In Rivers, A Great Conflict Preventive Mechanism

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IPCR: Declaration of State of Emergency In Rivers, A Great Conflict Preventive Mechanism

By: Michael Mike

The Institute for Peace and Conflict Resolution (IPCR) has commended President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s decision to declare a state of emergency in Rivers State, describing it as a proactive conflict prevention mechanism.

This move, according to the IPCR, will provide an opportunity for those involved in the crisis to reassess their actions, come together, and work towards resolving their differences.

The state of emergency, the IPCR explains, will serve as a vital tool in preventing conflicts by enabling the government to respond rapidly to emerging crises, restore order, and protect citizens.

This measure will also prevent the escalation of conflicts, reduce the risk of widespread violence and instability, and ultimately restore order and protect citizens, who are often the most affected in times of crisis.

President Tinubu’s decision to declare a state of emergency in Rivers State was made after a thorough evaluation of the political situation in the state. According to the President, the Governor and Deputy Governor of Rivers State had failed to request his intervention, as required by the Constitution, leaving him with no choice but to take proactive measures to restore stability in the state.

The declaration of a state of emergency in Rivers State has been ratified by the National Assembly, with President Tinubu commending the lawmakers for their patriotic stand. The President acknowledged the lawmakers’ diligent review of classified security briefings, which underscored the urgent need for intervention to prevent further escalation.

The six-month emergency period will empower the newly-appointed Sole Administrator to stabilize Rivers State, address systemic breakdowns, and facilitate dialogue among conflicting parties. President Tinubu has reaffirmed his administration’s commitment to deepening collaboration with the National Assembly to advance peace, economic resilience, and equitable development across Nigeria.

IPCR: Declaration of State of Emergency In Rivers, A Great Conflict Preventive Mechanism

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Air Algerie Commences Inaugural Flight to Abuja on Sunday

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Air Algerie Commences Inaugural Flight to Abuja on Sunday

By: Michael Mike

Air Algerie is to commence direct flight from Algiers, the capital of Algeria to Abuja, to fly inaugural flight into Nigeria’s capital on Sunday 6th April.

A statement by the acting spokesperson of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Kimiebi Ebienfa on Wednesday read: “The Ministry of Foreign Affairs is pleased to announce the commencement of Air Algerie inaugural direct flight service from Algiers to Abuja, scheduled for 6th April 2025.

“This historic development marks a significant milestone in the growing diplomatic and economic relations between Nigeria and Algeria. It is pertinent to state that it is the implementation of the Bilateral Air Services Agreement (BASA) between both countries, which culminated in this successful venture.”

The statement added that: “The new route, operated by the Algeria’s national carrier, Algerie Air with a Boeing 737 Aircraft, will positively enhance connectivity, promote tourism, and facilitate trade and investment between the two nations. This landmark development equally underscores the shared commitment of both countries to deepening bilateral cooperation in aviation, commerce, and people-to-people exchanges.

The Ministry commended the significant role played by the Embassy of Nigeria in Algiers for not only facilitating this noble goal but also seeing to its fruition, the Charge d’Affaires of the Embassy of Nigeria in Algiers, leadership of the Nigerian Community in Algeria and representative of the Algerian Government are expected to be on board the scheduled inaugural flight.

The statement further read: “The Federal Government of Nigeria, through the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and relevant aviation authorities, extends its warm congratulations to Air Algerie and assures all necessary support to ensure the success and sustainability of this new service. We believe this initiative will further strengthen the longstanding friendship between Nigeria and Algeria, while opening new opportunities for mutual growth. The affordable fare structure and the proximity of Algeria to Europe would also provide Nigerians with a convenient gateway to Europe, thereby enhancing Nigeria’s position as a regional hub for business, tourism, and transit.

“The Nigerian government therefore encourages citizens and the business communities to take advantage of this enhanced air connectivity, which will operate twice a week, to explore trade, tourism, and cultural exchanges between both countries. We look forward to a successful inaugural flight and a prosperous partnership with Air Algeria.”

Air Algerie Commences Inaugural Flight to Abuja on Sunday

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Elites are also guilty of increasing zero dose prevalence in Borno state

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Dr Mala Abdulwahab during the budget review presenntation held in maiduguri recently

Elites are also guilty of increasing zero dose prevalence in Borno state

By: Bodunrin Kayode

The Director of Public and Community Health in the Borno State Primary Healthcare Development Agency (BSPHDA) Dr Mala Abdulwahab has said that security challenges contribute to the high prevalence of zero dose.

Dr Mala regretted that a lot of the “zero-doses” of immunization being recorded in Borno state comes from the lingering level of insecurity plaguing the state adding that a reduction of the prevalence would take place only if these insecurity gaps are closed.

Dr Mala made these assertions during a review meeting of the Borno state annual score card for immunization accountability 2024 as put together by the Committee of Practice (COP) and the Africa Health Budget Network (AHBN) which held in maiduguri recently.

He said that the lingering insurgency in the state has definitely put a clog in the wheels of a lot of progress which should have been made in the reduction of the zero dose when it comes to immunization adding that it is the hope of the COP that this primary challenge would soon be a thing of the past.

Speaking on further challenges working against health workers during zero dose immunization, Dr Mala regretted that a lot of residents actually assume that because elites are expected to have some form of education, resistance or carelessness will not emanate from them or even core insiders in the medical profession.

Mala’s sadness on this issue stems from the fact that a large chunk of some medical personnel in Borno state are not helping to attack the rising prevalence of the zero dose cases in the state, because they equally take the campaign for granted depriving their kids from having the relevant vaccines as at when due.

The Director of public and community health revealed that Borno state contributes a whopping 60 percent of the measles prevalence in the country adding that something urgently must be done by health workers and educators to reverse this unsatisfactory trend within the sector.

The Director Community health posited that theses kids who are yet to start their regimes of the vaccines especially penta 1,2 and 3 are equally contributing to the embarrassing statistics being reeled out from within the system.

“There is really no reason why we must be having zero-dose cases up till now within this part of the country. It is very unfortunate that this preventable occurrences keep coming up in spite of our efforts.

“Some of the zero-does do come from the elites in the country while some are compromised by prevailing security challenges especially around the state capital areas and some other parts of the state too. But we must keep trying.

” Let me tell you how we used to handle difficult fulani people in the bush, we go with our veterinary doctors and by using the veterinarians they talk to the fulani people to fall in line in terms of taking the vaccines. They see their cattle getting better and their kids too.

” However, it is regrettable that some medical practitioners are not allowing their kids to be immunized against the six killer diseases. This should never be allowed to thrive within the on coming immunization campaigns.

“And this is why I am calling on all of us here to pay relevant visits to VIPs, stakeholders and influencers to ensure that the civil society, media and others are carried along to reduce zero-doses to the nearest minimum.

“For immunity to be maintained, we need to work on the 65 percent coverage of immunization in the state to something better. We must make better progress in the pending campaigns.

” I also urge that advocacies should be done in large numbers to ensure effectiveness. Community leaders will take you more serious when you go in large numbers to make your points heard” Said Mala.

The Director called on field representatives to make deliberate efforts to ensure they anchor their advocacies with the traditional rulers of each domain like the Shehu of Borno in the state capital to make the expected progress.

Also present in the review session, Peace Ambassador, Ahmed Shehu assured the round table of stakeholders that their convergence will close a lot of gaps on the entire vaccination architecture in the state.

He assured that Musamman like him will do their best to ensure that the zero-dose prevalence becomes a thing of the past as they forge ahead in the 2025 campaigns.

Also speaking, Dr Musa Melton, a senior field coordinator of the African Field Epidemiology Network (AFENET) in Borno state noted that the exercise was meant to open the remaining vestiges of existing challenges caused by the zero dose and dealing with them decisively from the coming campaigns to be mounted by the community of practice (COP).

He however noted that the last review of actualities on ground was not all that gloomy because epidemiological statistics indicated that the number of zero-doses have actually reduced in the state and the entire country.

Melton commended Dr Aminu Magashi the founder of the Africa health network for bringing the vital budgetary issues to the fore adding that with the new push to bringing down the number of zero-doses in the state and the willingness of the state govt led by Prof Babagana Zulum to spend more on health, there is good news at the horizon.

Dr Melton stated that measles has however dropped drastically in the state and the entire country from last year’s statistics to this year’s adding that they will soon celebrate the end of the zero-dose prevalence as the campaigns intensifies.

UNICEF immunization officer and representative in the round table Bashir Elegbede frowned at dishonest immunization officers adding that inspectors will be in the field for the next campaign to hunt down such people and reduce such misbehaving practitioners contributing to the zero dose.

He warned that everyone will answer his or her fathers name this time around as business as usual will never be tolerated from anyone.

Present at the occasion were stake holders from within the state and some from outside like Dr Aminu Magashi who is the global convener of the community of practice (COP) on accountability and social action on health and a member of the global action plan for SDG 3 advocacy group.

A child in contemporary Nigeria is said to be out of the zero-dose prevalence when such a child had been subjected to BCG, OPV O, Hepatitis BO all at birth.

Within six weeks the same child should have taken Pentavalent 1, PCV 1, OPV1, IPV1, and ROTA 1 while at 10 weeks, Pentavalent 2, PCV2, OPV2 and ROTA 2.

At 14 weeks a child is expected to have taken Pentavalent 3, PVC 3, OPV 3, IPV2 and Rota 3.

At five months the malaria vaccine should be infused while at six months the vitamin A 1st dose even as the malaria vaccine is followed at seven months.

By nine months one’s baby should be done with measles first dose, yellow fever, Meningitis vaccine and vitamin A second dose even as the measles second dose and malaria vaccine are administered at 15 months.

Updated data received from the COP indicated that by 9 Years, children should be ready for the human Papilloma virus vaccine and that should make them good to go by world standards to avoid zero-doses.

This is the contemporary ideal and expectations for all children as laid down by the national primary health agency of Nigeria.

Elites are also guilty of increasing zero dose prevalence in Borno state

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