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War Against Niger: Why Nigeria Should Look Before It Leaps
War Against Niger: Why Nigeria Should Look Before It Leaps
By Zagazola Makama
Carefully observing the geopolitical map of AFRICA, WAGNER Operation and disassociation from WEST hegemony straddles a straight line from coasts of SENEGAL to SUDAN where a geo-strategic interest lies.
It appears the diversion is in AFRICA, which has become the proxy area for the UKRAINE – RUSSIA war.
In retrospect, the campaign against WESTERN hegemony, especially FRANCE, had eaten deep into AFRICA and has potentially no reverse, as calls rose for, first, AFRICAN leadership to own their countries’ wealth and, second, a united AFRICA.
Equally, WAGNER, an extension of RUSSIAN military diplomacy, spearheaded a Psychological Operations measure to divert attention of NATO and other WESTERN powers’ attention as EUROPE continues to become tense over the UKRAINE – RUSSIA conflict.
For now, WESTERN dominance is on the verge of pulling more resources to maintain relations with AFRICA.
Whatever the consequences, a RUSSIA-led support virus had already been inoculated into the streams of support by part of AFRICA to take sides.
This, therefore, forms the context in which the buildup of tension between the NIGERIA-led ECOWAS and NIGER REPUBLIC over the recent coup overthrowing the Mohammed Bazoum-led democratically elected government of the West African francophone nation should be viewed.
The Bola Ahmed Tinubu-led government of Nigeria seems hell-bent on leading the combined ECOWAS military to storm Niamey, root out the coupists, free Bazoum from their captivity and reinstate him president of NIGER.
There are numerous salient facts with regard to NIGERIA-NIGER Republic relations that deserve crucial consideration before the ECOWAS forces pounce on NIGER.
This consideration is imperative for NIGERIA to avoid being deceived into a proxy war that will, in the long run, cause its drastic and cataclysmic fall from the enviable heights of West African Giant and, possibly, African leadership.
The most-startling of these facts.
Seven states in NIGERIA, stretching from the North-West to the North-East geopolitical zones border NIGER. The peoples of these states savor centuries-old sociocultural affinity and amity with the peoples of the southern flank of NIGER, contributing substantially to the economies of the countries for ages.
These close ties are about to be crushed by the ECOWAS forces.
Intelligence suggests despite sanctions by ECOWAS, BENIN Republic has opened up borders to NIGER, implying its disagreement with the gang up measure against its neighbor. Suspicion places NIGERIA in tight corners as pro-WEST to act spontaneously against its neighbor.
This is possibly as part of WAGNER psychological Operation to seek further movement of the PMC personnel into NIAMEY in part and WEST AFRICA as a whole.
NIGERIA-NIGER relations have always been excellent up until now. For instance, NIGER is always actively in support of NIGERIA during Counter insurgency Operations of the Multinational Joint Task Force and provides ISR as well as Air Interdiction during most missions.
Military operations, economic transfer and numerous other friendly relations exist between both nations.
The coup may have changed the politics but has not disemboweled the close ties or similarities in cultural and social identity between NIGERIA and her neighbors.
It is assumed the target to frustrate NIGERIA’s key role economically, politically and militarily after solely containing more than a decade old insurgency is likely.
Hence, NIGERIA should continue a broader defense diplomacy with its neighbors to maintain a steady course in foreign policy.
The strong ties NIGERIA with its neighbors should be used to overcome plans to utilize AFRICA as grounds for proxy war between the WESTERN and EASTERN powers.
There is a need for NIGERIA to showcase the big-brother position in aligning with AFRICA’s unity and suggest to her neighbors that despite all shortcomings, measures other than coup may not be a solution.
There is a need to call on the leadership of MALI, BURKINA FASO, GUINEA and others to realize support for one another as well as to devise means of solving the major issues of developing strategies against terrorism and western hegemony.
It will, therefore, be unfortunate to deploy force to NIGER.
Information suggests GHANA, TOGO, GAMBIA and LIBERIA have said they will not deploy troops to NIGER. More so, Mali, Burkina Faso, and Guinea, three West African nations, have backed the coup leaders in Niger, a move that poses a threat to regional stability. this is a trap for NIGERIA.
NIGERIA, for her own good, must not fall into this trap. It could be disastrous for, first, its status in the West African region and, indeed, the entire African continent; and, second, its existence as one enviably politically, diplomatically and economically powerful entity in global affairs.
The possible abstention of some of the West African nations from the impending war is not because ECOWAS does not have the capability to deploy a force to NIGER, but because other members will not commit as much resources as expected.
Moreover, ECOWAS will have to explain why it didn’t deploy similar forces to BURKINA FASO, MALI and GUINEA where their military also toppled democratic governments.
Generally, it will be a big strategic miscalculation for NIGERIA to commit to such externalities, with the several internal challenges facing the country.
A diplomatic solution to NIGER’s problem will be the best at this moment. NIGERIA has nothing to prove to the world except its proficiency in diplomatic relations and standing tall in might as a big brother. NIGERIA’s military diplomacy should play a key role in turning key issues.
NIGERIA faces devastating consequences should the war be carried out against NIGER.
Nigeria is strategically positioned into a geographical zone that it can never Win a War on the NIGER REPUBLIC even if the Military Junta is chased out of Niamey.
The following are definite to be the price of the aggression on the NIGER REPUBLIC by ECOWAS by the West African allied forces:
First: Losing President Bazoum. For sure, the first consequences of the War on NIGER is that NIGERIA will only have the corpse of MOHAMMED BAZOUM whom PRESIDENT TINUBU led ECOWAS is so anxious to reinstate immediately Niamey is captured.
Is Nigeria or any fighter for the restoration of democracy ready for that to happen?
Second: More enmity will emanate against Nigeria within the West African region. The country will have more regional enemies than friends because all the Countries bordering NIGER REPUBLIC will not condone the aggression even if they restrain from attacking Nigeria in defense of their ally in the protection of their sovereignty.
Third: Diplomatic relations among West African nations could worsen, leading to the possible collapse of ECOWAS. This situation would be catastrophic to the economy of the region as free movement of its citizens becomes a big regional threat. Already Niger Republic is hosting over 300,000 Nigerian Refugees in Diffa, Bosso and Tumour. These IDPs are already facing stigmatization and humiliation from their host and soon they may be asked to leave.
Four: There could be a proliferation of unprecedentedly frightening forms of terrorism as a result of the presence of huge amounts of Bõko Harām Insurgents across the borders of the two countries that stretched into Mali, Burkina Faso up to the Sene-Gambian Region. Fledgeling or the collapse of ECOWAS would facilitate the infiltration of terrorist groups into the countries much easier than what happened to ISIS’s cross border operations in Syria, Iraq, Turkey and parts of Egypt’s Sinai mountainous region.
In this scenario, more massive funding will be made towards sponsoring “Terrorists Groups”, thus creating more others by International Agencies who have been enemies to “Global Peace” to control sensitively viable areas of economic importance for eventually ceaseless attacks such as the ongoing “Armed Banditry and Kidnappings” that are rampant in the Region.
Five: Inflation and economic recession is definitely going to hit Nigeria immediately the war starts, causing millions of people across the region to lose their jobs, causing high cost of living for the ordinary citizens of both countries.
Six: Famine and rampant deaths would be inevitable as a result of the hampering of all agricultural activities, with the war intensifying where massive hectares of land shall remain without being harvested for more than 75 percent of the region in the same technical manner Bõko Harām disrupts farming for than a decade throughout most parts of the North-East.
Seven: Massive migration across West Africa, and, possibly, between West Africa and other contiguous regions of the African continent would take place as refugees from both sides keep flooding the Sub-saharan region.
With Nigeria presently finding it difficult to manage the growing humanitarian crisis with millions of its Internally Displaced Persons (IDPS) due to terrorism and banditry, another unsustainable chaotic conditions will be artificially created for it to handle.
For sure, when the drums of War are beaten and the planned aggression on the NIGER REPUBLIC commences, NORTHERN NIGERIA’s (Arēwa) Region, from Gamboru to Kamba, From ILLELA/JIBIYA/MAI-ADUWA/MAIGATARI to OTURKPO would be submerged in total full scale insecurity.
This could threaten the existence of NORTHERN NIGERIA. Once NORTHERN NIGERIA is gone, the official Federation of what is known as Nigeria would be “Badly Bargained”, forever.
Nigeria should look before it leaps.
To be forewarned is to be forearmed!
Zagazola is a Counter-Insurgency expert and security analyst in the Lake Chad region.
War Against Niger: Why Nigeria Should Look Before It Leaps
News
NDLEA intercepts cocaine shipment from Brazil, detains ship, 20 Filipino crew members
NDLEA intercepts cocaine shipment from Brazil, detains ship, 20 Filipino crew members
By: Michael Mike
Barely six months after 10 Thai sailors and their ship were convicted and fined $4.3 million for bringing 32.9 kilogrammes cocaine into Nigeria, operatives of the National Drug Law Enforcement Agency (NDLEA) have again intercepted another commodity laden vessel- MV Nord Bosporus marked 9760110 from the port of Santos in Brazil at the Apapa seaport in Lagos with no less than 20 kilogrammes of the Class A drug buried under its cargo.
A statement on Friday by the spokesman of the anti-narcotics agency, Femi Babafemi said the illicit drug consignment was discovered on board the vessel last Sunday by NDLEA officers who thereafter took the Master of the ship, Captain Quino Eugene Corpus and 19 other crew members who are all Filipinos into custody for investigation.
Babafemi said following the seizure and arrest of the crew members, the NDLEA filed an application for an order of court for the detention of the vessel and the 20 Filipinos on board for further investigation.

He disclosed that the motion ex-parte in suit number FHC/L/MISC/1306/25 was argued before Justice Musa Kakaki of the Federal High Court, Lagos, who on Thursday granted the application for an initial 14 days detention of the vessel, Capt. Corpus and 19 other Filipino crew members.
Babafemi said preliminary investigation revealed that this was the first time the vessel was coming to Nigeria and Africa as it’s been largely transporting coal between Colombia and Brazil while Captain Corpus has been barely three months with the ship.
He recalled that the agency had in a similar circumstance arrested 10 sailors who are nationals of Thailand on 13th October 2021 on board a vessel named MV Chayanee Naree for trafficking 32.9 kilogrammes of cocaine from Brazil into Nigeria through the Apapa seaport. Nine Nigerian suspects were also arrested along with the Thai crew members.
He said the 10 Thai sailors and the vessel were eventually convicted on Thursday 15th May 2025 by a Federal High Court in Lagos presided over by Justice Daniel Osiagor who also fined them $4.3 million.
In his reaction to the latest significant seizure of 20 kilogrammes cocaine on board MV Nord Bosporus, Chairman/Chief Executive Officer of NDLEA, Brig. Gen. Buba Marwa (rtd) commended the officers, men and women of the Apapa Strategic Command of the agency as well as the Directorate of Seaport Operations for their vigilance, diligence and professionalism.
Marwa said the cocaine seizure is not just an operational success but “a clear demonstration of our heightened capacity and unwavering resolve”, adding that “we will continue to tighten our grip on all entry and exit points, especially our seaports, which transnational criminal organisations have historically attempted to exploit.”
According to him, “Let this be an unambiguous message to every international drug cartel and every internal collaborator: Nigeria is not, and will never be, your space or your foothold. The NDLEA is operating with zero-tolerance, and we will not permit any illicit drug to pass through our borders, whether by air, land, or sea. You may scheme, you may attempt sophisticated concealment, but you will fail. Our intelligence network, collaboration with international partners, and the dedication of our officers are steps ahead of your nefarious activities.”
He reminded any Nigerian who chooses to collaborate with foreign syndicates in the illicit drug trade of the consequences their action.
He said: “You are not just committing a crime; you are betraying your nation’s future. The consequences of aiding and abetting drug trafficking will be severe and unrelenting. We are committed to using the full force of the law to dismantle your structures, seize your illicit assets, and secure your long-term incarceration.”
NDLEA intercepts cocaine shipment from Brazil, detains ship, 20 Filipino crew members
News
NHRC Announces Programmes for 16 Days of Activism on GBV
NHRC Announces Programmes for 16 Days of Activism on GBV
By: Michael Mike
The National Human Rights Commission (NHRC) has announced its plans for the 2025 International 16 Days of Activism Against Gender-Based Violence.
The activities which commences on Monday, showed a sweeping nationwide plan and a renewed call for stronger protections for women and girls, as the Commission also marks its 30th anniversary.
Addressing journalists at a press briefing in Abuja, the Executive Secretary of NHRC, Dr. Tony Ojukwu said the anniversary provided an important moment to reflect on three decades of work advancing justice, dignity, and equality in Nigeria — while acknowledging that gender-based violence (GBV) remains one of the gravest human rights violations confronting the country.
He said: “For 30 years, the Commission has remained a steadfast voice for accountability and human rights. This year’s campaign gives us the opportunity not only to reflect on our journey but to intensify the fight against all forms of violence, especially against women and girls.”
The 16 Days of Activism — observed annually from November 25 to December 10 — is part of a global movement launched in 1991 by the Centre for Women’s Global Leadership. It links the International Day for the Elimination of Violence Against Women with Human Rights Day, symbolizing that violence against women is a direct violation of human rights.
Ojukwu noted that Nigeria remains committed to this global call.
He said: “Gender-based violence is unacceptable in every form. These 16 days remind us that survivors must be heard, supported, and protected.”
This year’s programme, one of the NHRC’s most extensive yet, includes coordinated activities across all 36 states and the Federal Capital Territory.
According to Ojukwu, the activities are designed to strengthen prevention, improve accountability, and reinforce protection structures nationwide.
Marking its 30-year milestone, the NHRC urged the National Assembly to pass legislation creating special constituencies for women — a long-standing proposal aimed at improving female representation in public office.
“Denying affirmative action is itself a form of violence against women,” the Commission emphasized. “Empowerment must include political participation.”
The Commission also highlighted multiple empowerment programmes conducted in partnership with local and international organisations. These include:Support for over 60 survivors of sexual and gender-based violence under the EU/UNDP Spotlight Initiative; Financial grants for vulnerable women in collaboration with the Taipei Trade Office; Economic empowerment for more than 100 indigent women through the Thelma Lion Foundation; Distribution of sewing machines, grinding machines, and hair dryers to over 300 women through partnerships with National Assembly members; Ongoing collaboration with the Dorothy Njemanze Foundation to support SGBV survivors.
Ojukwu said: “These interventions are meant to strengthen the socio-economic resilience of women and reduce vulnerabilities.”
He reassured Nigerians that the commission will continue to carry out its mandate with fairness and impartiality.
He said: “We will not allow gender-based violence or any human rights violation to go unaddressed. Every complaint matters, and every perpetrator must be held accountable.”
As the 16-day campaign begins, Ojukwu called on government institutions, traditional and religious leaders, civil society groups, the private sector, and individuals to join in the fight to end violence against women.
“Awareness is not enough,”Ojukwu said. “We must turn commitments into action and build a Nigeria where women and girls can live free from fear, discrimination, and harmful practices.”
NHRC Announces Programmes for 16 Days of Activism on GBV
News
IPCR: Livestock Sector Now Sits at the Heart of Nigeria’s Ecosystem
IPCR: Livestock Sector Now Sits at the Heart of Nigeria’s Ecosystem
By: Michael Mike
The Institute for Peace and Conflict Resolution (IPCR) has said the livestock sector now sits “at the heart of Nigeria’s conflict ecosystem,” influencing local economies, intergroup relations, and national security.
While Nigeria has produced multiple livestock policies over the years, speakers at the Policy Review Meeting of the Network of Policy Makers for the Support of Peace, Security and Reconciliation in Nigeria organized by IPCR in partnership with King Abdullah Bin Abdullaziz International Centre for Interreligious and Intercultural Dialogue (KAICIID), agreed that the country’s biggest challenge is not policy creation but policy implementation.
The Executive Secretary of IPCR, Dr. Joseph Ochogwu said: “Policies exist, but they often die before they leave the shelf,” echoing past criticisms that Nigeria has become a “graveyard of unimplemented policies.”
He warned that the farmer–herder conflict has evolved into a complex risk system shaped by climate pressures, land scarcity, population growth, trans-border migration, and weak governance structures. Without coordinated action, these pressures threaten to overwhelm already stretched local and national institutions.
He stressed that the success of livestock reforms will depend on effective coordination between federal ministries, state governments, local authorities, and community actors.
He said: “When institutions operate in silos, conflict fills the gap. But when federal, state, and local structures move in alignment, policy becomes a stabilizing tool.”
He described traditional rulers, pastoralist associations, farmers’ groups, and religious leaders as “indispensable partners” in the process rather than observers brought in after decisions are made.
The session also addressed growing concerns around communal violence and allegations of targeted attacks against specific religious groups. Recent claims suggesting that Christians are being systematically exterminated in Nigeria have gained international attention.
Ochogwu acknowledged the emotional weight of such claims but cautioned against narratives not grounded in verified evidence.
“Nigeria’s security challenges stem from terrorism, banditry, resource competition, and historical grievances,” he said, while adding that: “These problems affect all groups, and they require collective solutions—not divisive interpretations.”
He emphasized that Nigeria must not allow any trajectory that resembles genocide or the destruction of any community, calling for stronger early-warning systems, improved regulation of pastoral mobility, and policies that prevent local tensions from escalating into large-scale atrocities.
Participants agreed that the partnership between policymakers and faith leaders is central to preventing violence. Religious institutions, they noted, have moral authority and grassroots influence that government structures often lack, particularly in rural communities most affected by the conflict.
“This network exists because peace is not a government-only project,” the convener said. “It must be built through a multi-layered alliance of policymakers, traditional institutions, and religious leaders.”
Ochogwu highlighted four areas requiring urgent action: Strengthening vertical and horizontal coordination across federal, state, and community levels; Embedding conflict-sensitive practices into all livestock policy implementation; Ensuring inclusive engagement involving farmers, pastoralists, women, youth, and local institutions and Institutionalizing evidence-based monitoring systems that track conflict hotspots and pastoral mobility using real-time data.
IPCR reaffirmed its commitment to supporting the Federal Government through conflict analysis, policy advisory services, mediation, and early-warning mechanisms. Its partnerships with KAICIID and other international bodies, it said, are aimed at ensuring that the outcomes of these dialogues translate into tangible impact at the community level.
Participants agreed that Nigeria stands at a critical moment. Transforming livestock policy into practical action, they said, is not only a matter of agricultural reform—it is a prerequisite for national stability.
Ochogwu said: “Moving from intention to impact is the only path to sustainable peace,” note”ing that: “Strengthening coordination in the livestock sector is ultimately strengthening Nigeria itself.”
Policymakers, diplomats, and leading clerics convened in Abuja on Friday for the Second Quarter Policy Review Dialogue of the Network of Policymakers and Religious Leaders, with a renewed push to transform Nigeria’s long-standing livestock policy from paper commitments into real, coordinated action.
The meeting, held at the Institute for Peace and Conflict Resolution (IPCR) headquarters, focused on the theme “From Policy to Practice: Strengthening Coordination and Implementation of Nigeria’s Livestock Policy.” It brought together government officials, faith leaders, security experts and community representatives who described the dialogue as a crucial step in tackling the persistent farmer–herder crisis and its broader security implications.
IPCR: Livestock Sector Now Sits at the Heart of Nigeria’s Ecosystem
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