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War Against Niger: Why Nigeria Should Look Before It Leaps
War Against Niger: Why Nigeria Should Look Before It Leaps
By Zagazola Makama
Carefully observing the geopolitical map of AFRICA, WAGNER Operation and disassociation from WEST hegemony straddles a straight line from coasts of SENEGAL to SUDAN where a geo-strategic interest lies.
It appears the diversion is in AFRICA, which has become the proxy area for the UKRAINE – RUSSIA war.
In retrospect, the campaign against WESTERN hegemony, especially FRANCE, had eaten deep into AFRICA and has potentially no reverse, as calls rose for, first, AFRICAN leadership to own their countries’ wealth and, second, a united AFRICA.
Equally, WAGNER, an extension of RUSSIAN military diplomacy, spearheaded a Psychological Operations measure to divert attention of NATO and other WESTERN powers’ attention as EUROPE continues to become tense over the UKRAINE – RUSSIA conflict.
For now, WESTERN dominance is on the verge of pulling more resources to maintain relations with AFRICA.
Whatever the consequences, a RUSSIA-led support virus had already been inoculated into the streams of support by part of AFRICA to take sides.
This, therefore, forms the context in which the buildup of tension between the NIGERIA-led ECOWAS and NIGER REPUBLIC over the recent coup overthrowing the Mohammed Bazoum-led democratically elected government of the West African francophone nation should be viewed.
The Bola Ahmed Tinubu-led government of Nigeria seems hell-bent on leading the combined ECOWAS military to storm Niamey, root out the coupists, free Bazoum from their captivity and reinstate him president of NIGER.
There are numerous salient facts with regard to NIGERIA-NIGER Republic relations that deserve crucial consideration before the ECOWAS forces pounce on NIGER.
This consideration is imperative for NIGERIA to avoid being deceived into a proxy war that will, in the long run, cause its drastic and cataclysmic fall from the enviable heights of West African Giant and, possibly, African leadership.
The most-startling of these facts.
Seven states in NIGERIA, stretching from the North-West to the North-East geopolitical zones border NIGER. The peoples of these states savor centuries-old sociocultural affinity and amity with the peoples of the southern flank of NIGER, contributing substantially to the economies of the countries for ages.
These close ties are about to be crushed by the ECOWAS forces.
Intelligence suggests despite sanctions by ECOWAS, BENIN Republic has opened up borders to NIGER, implying its disagreement with the gang up measure against its neighbor. Suspicion places NIGERIA in tight corners as pro-WEST to act spontaneously against its neighbor.
This is possibly as part of WAGNER psychological Operation to seek further movement of the PMC personnel into NIAMEY in part and WEST AFRICA as a whole.
NIGERIA-NIGER relations have always been excellent up until now. For instance, NIGER is always actively in support of NIGERIA during Counter insurgency Operations of the Multinational Joint Task Force and provides ISR as well as Air Interdiction during most missions.
Military operations, economic transfer and numerous other friendly relations exist between both nations.
The coup may have changed the politics but has not disemboweled the close ties or similarities in cultural and social identity between NIGERIA and her neighbors.
It is assumed the target to frustrate NIGERIA’s key role economically, politically and militarily after solely containing more than a decade old insurgency is likely.
Hence, NIGERIA should continue a broader defense diplomacy with its neighbors to maintain a steady course in foreign policy.
The strong ties NIGERIA with its neighbors should be used to overcome plans to utilize AFRICA as grounds for proxy war between the WESTERN and EASTERN powers.
There is a need for NIGERIA to showcase the big-brother position in aligning with AFRICA’s unity and suggest to her neighbors that despite all shortcomings, measures other than coup may not be a solution.
There is a need to call on the leadership of MALI, BURKINA FASO, GUINEA and others to realize support for one another as well as to devise means of solving the major issues of developing strategies against terrorism and western hegemony.
It will, therefore, be unfortunate to deploy force to NIGER.
Information suggests GHANA, TOGO, GAMBIA and LIBERIA have said they will not deploy troops to NIGER. More so, Mali, Burkina Faso, and Guinea, three West African nations, have backed the coup leaders in Niger, a move that poses a threat to regional stability. this is a trap for NIGERIA.
NIGERIA, for her own good, must not fall into this trap. It could be disastrous for, first, its status in the West African region and, indeed, the entire African continent; and, second, its existence as one enviably politically, diplomatically and economically powerful entity in global affairs.
The possible abstention of some of the West African nations from the impending war is not because ECOWAS does not have the capability to deploy a force to NIGER, but because other members will not commit as much resources as expected.
Moreover, ECOWAS will have to explain why it didn’t deploy similar forces to BURKINA FASO, MALI and GUINEA where their military also toppled democratic governments.
Generally, it will be a big strategic miscalculation for NIGERIA to commit to such externalities, with the several internal challenges facing the country.
A diplomatic solution to NIGER’s problem will be the best at this moment. NIGERIA has nothing to prove to the world except its proficiency in diplomatic relations and standing tall in might as a big brother. NIGERIA’s military diplomacy should play a key role in turning key issues.
NIGERIA faces devastating consequences should the war be carried out against NIGER.
Nigeria is strategically positioned into a geographical zone that it can never Win a War on the NIGER REPUBLIC even if the Military Junta is chased out of Niamey.
The following are definite to be the price of the aggression on the NIGER REPUBLIC by ECOWAS by the West African allied forces:
First: Losing President Bazoum. For sure, the first consequences of the War on NIGER is that NIGERIA will only have the corpse of MOHAMMED BAZOUM whom PRESIDENT TINUBU led ECOWAS is so anxious to reinstate immediately Niamey is captured.
Is Nigeria or any fighter for the restoration of democracy ready for that to happen?
Second: More enmity will emanate against Nigeria within the West African region. The country will have more regional enemies than friends because all the Countries bordering NIGER REPUBLIC will not condone the aggression even if they restrain from attacking Nigeria in defense of their ally in the protection of their sovereignty.
Third: Diplomatic relations among West African nations could worsen, leading to the possible collapse of ECOWAS. This situation would be catastrophic to the economy of the region as free movement of its citizens becomes a big regional threat. Already Niger Republic is hosting over 300,000 Nigerian Refugees in Diffa, Bosso and Tumour. These IDPs are already facing stigmatization and humiliation from their host and soon they may be asked to leave.
Four: There could be a proliferation of unprecedentedly frightening forms of terrorism as a result of the presence of huge amounts of Bõko Harām Insurgents across the borders of the two countries that stretched into Mali, Burkina Faso up to the Sene-Gambian Region. Fledgeling or the collapse of ECOWAS would facilitate the infiltration of terrorist groups into the countries much easier than what happened to ISIS’s cross border operations in Syria, Iraq, Turkey and parts of Egypt’s Sinai mountainous region.
In this scenario, more massive funding will be made towards sponsoring “Terrorists Groups”, thus creating more others by International Agencies who have been enemies to “Global Peace” to control sensitively viable areas of economic importance for eventually ceaseless attacks such as the ongoing “Armed Banditry and Kidnappings” that are rampant in the Region.
Five: Inflation and economic recession is definitely going to hit Nigeria immediately the war starts, causing millions of people across the region to lose their jobs, causing high cost of living for the ordinary citizens of both countries.
Six: Famine and rampant deaths would be inevitable as a result of the hampering of all agricultural activities, with the war intensifying where massive hectares of land shall remain without being harvested for more than 75 percent of the region in the same technical manner Bõko Harām disrupts farming for than a decade throughout most parts of the North-East.
Seven: Massive migration across West Africa, and, possibly, between West Africa and other contiguous regions of the African continent would take place as refugees from both sides keep flooding the Sub-saharan region.
With Nigeria presently finding it difficult to manage the growing humanitarian crisis with millions of its Internally Displaced Persons (IDPS) due to terrorism and banditry, another unsustainable chaotic conditions will be artificially created for it to handle.
For sure, when the drums of War are beaten and the planned aggression on the NIGER REPUBLIC commences, NORTHERN NIGERIA’s (Arēwa) Region, from Gamboru to Kamba, From ILLELA/JIBIYA/MAI-ADUWA/MAIGATARI to OTURKPO would be submerged in total full scale insecurity.
This could threaten the existence of NORTHERN NIGERIA. Once NORTHERN NIGERIA is gone, the official Federation of what is known as Nigeria would be “Badly Bargained”, forever.
Nigeria should look before it leaps.
To be forewarned is to be forearmed!
Zagazola is a Counter-Insurgency expert and security analyst in the Lake Chad region.
War Against Niger: Why Nigeria Should Look Before It Leaps
News
Security checks find no confirmation of alleged terror build-up around Heipang axis
Security checks find no confirmation of alleged terror build-up around Heipang axis
By: Zagazola Makama
Available security checks and field verifications do not support the claim circulating in the alert attributed to Barr. Dalyop Solomon Mwantiri alleging imminent coordinated attacks around Heipang Airport and surrounding communities in Plateau.
Multiple security sources indicate that: There is no confirmed intelligence of mass movement or staging of armed groups in the Heipang, Kwi, Kuru, Bisichi, or Wereng axis as described.
Routine patrols and surveillance by security forced in Barkin Ladi, Jos South, and Riyom LGAs have not reported unusual or mobilisation consistent with a planned large-scale attack.
The claim of a “narrow escape” has not been corroborated by any official report from security agencies or local command structures.
Sources said that such messages often emerge during periods of heightened tension and can trigger panic, reprisals, or misinformation cycles, especially in volatile communities.
However, authorities emphasise that the absence of confirmation does not eliminate the need for vigilance.
Residents should rely on verified channels and promptly report any suspicious activity to security agencies. Spreading unverified alerts can undermine coordinated security responses and create unnecessary fear.
A senior security source described the message as “unverified and likely exaggerated”, urging the public to remain calm while security forces continue routine dominance patrols across the affected LGAs.
The general security situation in the area remains under observation but stable, with no immediate indication of an impending coordinated attack as claimed.
Security checks find no confirmation of alleged terror build-up around Heipang axis
News
Eight killed in fresh Plateau attack by Fulani Bandits as troops intensify clearance operations
Eight killed in fresh Plateau attack by Fulani Bandits as troops intensify clearance operations
By: Zagazola Makama
Suspected Fulani Bandits have killed eight residents in Mbwelle Village, Kwatas District of Bokkos Local Government Area of Plateau, in the latest wave of tit for tat attacks in the state.
The incident occurred at about 10:30 p.m. on April 9, according to security sources.

The victims were identified as Habila Istifanus (38), Hassan Istifanus (31), Iliya Mangut (70), Sunday Gideon (31), Innocent Banabas (20), Lucky Titus (38), Wisdom Lucky (15), and Bwehsun Hassan (25).
Joint security forces responded to the distress call but did not establish contact with the attackers, who fled before their arrival.
A security source attributed the delayed response to the distance of about 15 kilometres between the troops’ base and the community, as well as difficult terrain.
All casualties, including the injured, were evacuated to Bokkos Cottage Hospital, while troops have launched pursuit operations to apprehend the fleeing militia.
Earlier on April 9, troops under Operation Wutan Daji recorded a major operational success in Wase and Kanam LGAs, neutralising 13 suspected terrorists during an offensive along identified corridors in Daba and Seri villages.
The troops had established blocking positions between Dutsen Zaki and Odare Forest, where they intercepted armed elements moving on motorcycles.
Recovered items included two motorcycles, five 25-litre jerrycans of Premium Motor Spirit (PMS), one AK-47 rifle, and a magazine loaded with three rounds of 7.62mm special ammunition.
Military sources said several fleeing terrorists escaped with gunshot wounds, while clearance operations remain ongoing.

In a separate operation on the same day, troops of 33 Artillery Brigade, in collaboration with the Office of the National Security Adviser (ONSA), conducted clearance operations in Daji Madam Forest, targeting camps at Dogo Ruwa and Bogwas.
The operation, supported by troops of a Combat Support Infantry Battalion and Civilian Joint Task Force (CJTF), led to the rescue of 21 kidnapped victims and the destruction of multiple bandits’ enclaves, including one linked to a notorious leader identified as Auta Kachalla.
Items recovered included one G3 rifle, four magazines, three generating sets, and a solar panel.
Despite these gains, security incidents have persisted across Barkin Ladi, Riyom, Jos South, and surrounding areas.
On April 8, troops of Operation Enduring Peace (OPEP) foiled an attack on commuters along the Razat–Kafi Abu road in Barkin Ladi LGA, where one civilian was killed and two others injured.
Later the same day, troops repelled a militia attack along the same axis and conducted a cordon-and-search operation in Suma Suga Takwok, recovering two AK-47 rifles, two magazines, and five rounds of 7.62mm ammunition.
In Riyom LGA, one civilian was killed in an ambush along the Dagbam bridge axis on the GOL–HOSS–Bwei road, while two others escaped unhurt. Troops also foiled an attack on Jol community on April 7, forcing the assailants to retreat without casualties.
Similarly, troops rescued one victim and recovered ammunition following an earlier attack in Dum village, Bachi District, where another victim was found dead.
Security operatives also intercepted 16 stray cattle grazing on farmland in Tahoss community, an incident linked to recurring disputes between farmers and herders.
The pattern of violence reflects a sustained cycle of reprisals between farming communities and pastoral groups.
On April 5, a Fulani herder, identified as Abubakar Hababe (40), was found dead in Riyom LGA in what sources described as a reprisal attack. The killing by suspected Berom Militia was reportedly linked to earlier incidents, including the attack on an illegal mining site in Gyel village where three miners were killed.
Other incidents include the discovery of the body of a 30-year-old herder, Shafiyu, in Jos South LGA, and the killing of a Fulani boy, Abdullahi Mohammed, in Mangu LGA.
Tensions were escalated since March 28, after the assassination of a Fulani leader, Alhaji Bilyaminu Julde, the Ardo of Gindiri in Barkin Ladi LGA.
Security reports also identified repeated destruction of farmlands and cattle rustling, further aggravating hostilities between communities.
Authorities said troops and other security agencies have intensified patrols, surveillance, and community engagements across affected LGAs to prevent further escalation.
“Operations are ongoing to dominate the general areas, dismantle criminal networks, and restore normalcy,” a security source said.
The developments illustrate the complexity of the security situation in Plateau, where counter-terrorism operations intersect with long-standing communal tensions, making sustained peace efforts increasingly challenging.
Security agencies have urged residents to remain calm, avoid reprisals, and provide credible information to support ongoing operations aimed at restoring lasting peace in the state.
Eight killed in fresh Plateau attack by Fulani Bandits as troops intensify clearance operations
News
Zagazola defends Gebi, urges Nigeria not to discard “one of its best minds” over allegations
Zagazola defends Gebi, urges Nigeria not to discard “one of its best minds” over allegations
By: Zagazola Makama
Counter-insurgency expert and security analyst, Zagazola Makama, has called for a fair and balanced assessment of the career and contributions of former lawmaker and security governance expert, Mr Aliyu Ibrahim Gebi, amid ongoing allegations of providing false intelligence to foreign embassies.
Makama appealed to Nigerian government not to dismiss Mr Gebi, over ongoing allegations, urging Nigeria to carefully weigh his long record of service in national security and diplomacy.

Makama, who spoke in reaction to the controversy surrounding alleged intelligence-related activities linked to Gebi, stressed that Nigeria must evaluate his long-standing record of service in both kinetic and non-kinetic aspects of national security rather than isolate him based on allegations.
He said Gebi remained one of the country’s finest notable figures in security governance, regional diplomacy, and conflict resolution architecture, noting that his contributions over the years cut across legislative oversight, governance, counter-terrorism engagement, and high-level diplomatic mediation.
According to him, Gebi’s past involvement in sensitive national assignments, including inter-agency coordination efforts and regional stabilization initiatives, places him among a small pool of Nigerian actors with practical exposure to both domestic and transnational security dynamics.

Makama recalled that Gebi played roles in legislative security oversight during his tenure in the House of Representatives, where he chaired security-related committees and participated in discussions shaping internal security responses at a time of growing insurgency threats in the country.
He further noted his participation in regional engagements under ECOWAS frameworks, where he contributed to discussions on border security, free movement protocols, and counter-terrorism cooperation among West African states.
The analyst also highlighted Gebi’s involvement in non-kinetic interventions, particularly diplomatic engagements aimed at de-escalating tensions between Nigeria and neighbouring countries, including efforts to restore communication channels during periods of strained bilateral relations.
Makama added that Gebi’s role in broader regional security dialogues involving Nigeria, Niger Republic, Mali, and Burkina Faso demonstrated his exposure to multinational coordination mechanisms and alternative conflict resolution approaches outside conventional military operations.
He stressed that individuals with such background often operate within sensitive intelligence and diplomatic environments where misinterpretations can easily arise, noting that such complexity should not be ignored in public judgment.

“Nigeria must not to discard one of its best hands in the non-kinetic and strategic communication space based on allegations that are still under investigation. “Nigeria cannot afford to lose experienced actors in its security ecosystem without full and fair consideration of their track records,”Makama said.
He added that Nigeria’s security challenges required experienced bridge-builders capable of working across intelligence, diplomacy, and civil-military coordination, rather than a narrowing of the country’s human capacity pool through premature exclusion.
He said that the former lawmaker had, over the years, participated in several high-level policy engagements, advocacy programmes, and security governance platforms, where he consistently advocated for stronger intelligence sharing, regional cooperation, and a whole-of-government approach to insecurity in West Africa.
“Whether in formal government assignments or informal diplomatic engagements, Gebi has consistently positioned himself on the side of Nigeria’s national interest,” Makama stated.
The security analyst also highlighted Gebi’s public communication role, noting that he had frequently used social media platforms, particularly Twitter, to mobilise youth engagement around national unity, counter-extremism narratives, and civic responsibility, describing it as part of modern strategic communication in security governance.
According to him, such engagements formed part of modern strategic communication efforts that complement kinetic military operations with information-driven stabilization strategies.
Makama cautioned that isolating individuals who have contributed significantly to national security discourse based solely on allegations could discourage future participation by experts in sensitive intelligence and diplomatic engagements.
The nation must judge fairly, investigate thoroughly, but also remember those who have consistently worked to keep it stable. Gebi is one of them.
Zagazola defends Gebi, urges Nigeria not to discard “one of its best minds” over allegations
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