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War Against Niger: Why Nigeria Should Look Before It Leaps
War Against Niger: Why Nigeria Should Look Before It Leaps
By Zagazola Makama
Carefully observing the geopolitical map of AFRICA, WAGNER Operation and disassociation from WEST hegemony straddles a straight line from coasts of SENEGAL to SUDAN where a geo-strategic interest lies.
It appears the diversion is in AFRICA, which has become the proxy area for the UKRAINE – RUSSIA war.
In retrospect, the campaign against WESTERN hegemony, especially FRANCE, had eaten deep into AFRICA and has potentially no reverse, as calls rose for, first, AFRICAN leadership to own their countries’ wealth and, second, a united AFRICA.
Equally, WAGNER, an extension of RUSSIAN military diplomacy, spearheaded a Psychological Operations measure to divert attention of NATO and other WESTERN powers’ attention as EUROPE continues to become tense over the UKRAINE – RUSSIA conflict.
For now, WESTERN dominance is on the verge of pulling more resources to maintain relations with AFRICA.
Whatever the consequences, a RUSSIA-led support virus had already been inoculated into the streams of support by part of AFRICA to take sides.
This, therefore, forms the context in which the buildup of tension between the NIGERIA-led ECOWAS and NIGER REPUBLIC over the recent coup overthrowing the Mohammed Bazoum-led democratically elected government of the West African francophone nation should be viewed.
The Bola Ahmed Tinubu-led government of Nigeria seems hell-bent on leading the combined ECOWAS military to storm Niamey, root out the coupists, free Bazoum from their captivity and reinstate him president of NIGER.
There are numerous salient facts with regard to NIGERIA-NIGER Republic relations that deserve crucial consideration before the ECOWAS forces pounce on NIGER.
This consideration is imperative for NIGERIA to avoid being deceived into a proxy war that will, in the long run, cause its drastic and cataclysmic fall from the enviable heights of West African Giant and, possibly, African leadership.
The most-startling of these facts.
Seven states in NIGERIA, stretching from the North-West to the North-East geopolitical zones border NIGER. The peoples of these states savor centuries-old sociocultural affinity and amity with the peoples of the southern flank of NIGER, contributing substantially to the economies of the countries for ages.
These close ties are about to be crushed by the ECOWAS forces.
Intelligence suggests despite sanctions by ECOWAS, BENIN Republic has opened up borders to NIGER, implying its disagreement with the gang up measure against its neighbor. Suspicion places NIGERIA in tight corners as pro-WEST to act spontaneously against its neighbor.
This is possibly as part of WAGNER psychological Operation to seek further movement of the PMC personnel into NIAMEY in part and WEST AFRICA as a whole.
NIGERIA-NIGER relations have always been excellent up until now. For instance, NIGER is always actively in support of NIGERIA during Counter insurgency Operations of the Multinational Joint Task Force and provides ISR as well as Air Interdiction during most missions.
Military operations, economic transfer and numerous other friendly relations exist between both nations.
The coup may have changed the politics but has not disemboweled the close ties or similarities in cultural and social identity between NIGERIA and her neighbors.
It is assumed the target to frustrate NIGERIA’s key role economically, politically and militarily after solely containing more than a decade old insurgency is likely.
Hence, NIGERIA should continue a broader defense diplomacy with its neighbors to maintain a steady course in foreign policy.
The strong ties NIGERIA with its neighbors should be used to overcome plans to utilize AFRICA as grounds for proxy war between the WESTERN and EASTERN powers.
There is a need for NIGERIA to showcase the big-brother position in aligning with AFRICA’s unity and suggest to her neighbors that despite all shortcomings, measures other than coup may not be a solution.
There is a need to call on the leadership of MALI, BURKINA FASO, GUINEA and others to realize support for one another as well as to devise means of solving the major issues of developing strategies against terrorism and western hegemony.
It will, therefore, be unfortunate to deploy force to NIGER.
Information suggests GHANA, TOGO, GAMBIA and LIBERIA have said they will not deploy troops to NIGER. More so, Mali, Burkina Faso, and Guinea, three West African nations, have backed the coup leaders in Niger, a move that poses a threat to regional stability. this is a trap for NIGERIA.
NIGERIA, for her own good, must not fall into this trap. It could be disastrous for, first, its status in the West African region and, indeed, the entire African continent; and, second, its existence as one enviably politically, diplomatically and economically powerful entity in global affairs.
The possible abstention of some of the West African nations from the impending war is not because ECOWAS does not have the capability to deploy a force to NIGER, but because other members will not commit as much resources as expected.
Moreover, ECOWAS will have to explain why it didn’t deploy similar forces to BURKINA FASO, MALI and GUINEA where their military also toppled democratic governments.
Generally, it will be a big strategic miscalculation for NIGERIA to commit to such externalities, with the several internal challenges facing the country.
A diplomatic solution to NIGER’s problem will be the best at this moment. NIGERIA has nothing to prove to the world except its proficiency in diplomatic relations and standing tall in might as a big brother. NIGERIA’s military diplomacy should play a key role in turning key issues.
NIGERIA faces devastating consequences should the war be carried out against NIGER.
Nigeria is strategically positioned into a geographical zone that it can never Win a War on the NIGER REPUBLIC even if the Military Junta is chased out of Niamey.
The following are definite to be the price of the aggression on the NIGER REPUBLIC by ECOWAS by the West African allied forces:
First: Losing President Bazoum. For sure, the first consequences of the War on NIGER is that NIGERIA will only have the corpse of MOHAMMED BAZOUM whom PRESIDENT TINUBU led ECOWAS is so anxious to reinstate immediately Niamey is captured.
Is Nigeria or any fighter for the restoration of democracy ready for that to happen?
Second: More enmity will emanate against Nigeria within the West African region. The country will have more regional enemies than friends because all the Countries bordering NIGER REPUBLIC will not condone the aggression even if they restrain from attacking Nigeria in defense of their ally in the protection of their sovereignty.
Third: Diplomatic relations among West African nations could worsen, leading to the possible collapse of ECOWAS. This situation would be catastrophic to the economy of the region as free movement of its citizens becomes a big regional threat. Already Niger Republic is hosting over 300,000 Nigerian Refugees in Diffa, Bosso and Tumour. These IDPs are already facing stigmatization and humiliation from their host and soon they may be asked to leave.
Four: There could be a proliferation of unprecedentedly frightening forms of terrorism as a result of the presence of huge amounts of Bõko Harām Insurgents across the borders of the two countries that stretched into Mali, Burkina Faso up to the Sene-Gambian Region. Fledgeling or the collapse of ECOWAS would facilitate the infiltration of terrorist groups into the countries much easier than what happened to ISIS’s cross border operations in Syria, Iraq, Turkey and parts of Egypt’s Sinai mountainous region.
In this scenario, more massive funding will be made towards sponsoring “Terrorists Groups”, thus creating more others by International Agencies who have been enemies to “Global Peace” to control sensitively viable areas of economic importance for eventually ceaseless attacks such as the ongoing “Armed Banditry and Kidnappings” that are rampant in the Region.
Five: Inflation and economic recession is definitely going to hit Nigeria immediately the war starts, causing millions of people across the region to lose their jobs, causing high cost of living for the ordinary citizens of both countries.
Six: Famine and rampant deaths would be inevitable as a result of the hampering of all agricultural activities, with the war intensifying where massive hectares of land shall remain without being harvested for more than 75 percent of the region in the same technical manner Bõko Harām disrupts farming for than a decade throughout most parts of the North-East.
Seven: Massive migration across West Africa, and, possibly, between West Africa and other contiguous regions of the African continent would take place as refugees from both sides keep flooding the Sub-saharan region.
With Nigeria presently finding it difficult to manage the growing humanitarian crisis with millions of its Internally Displaced Persons (IDPS) due to terrorism and banditry, another unsustainable chaotic conditions will be artificially created for it to handle.
For sure, when the drums of War are beaten and the planned aggression on the NIGER REPUBLIC commences, NORTHERN NIGERIA’s (Arēwa) Region, from Gamboru to Kamba, From ILLELA/JIBIYA/MAI-ADUWA/MAIGATARI to OTURKPO would be submerged in total full scale insecurity.
This could threaten the existence of NORTHERN NIGERIA. Once NORTHERN NIGERIA is gone, the official Federation of what is known as Nigeria would be “Badly Bargained”, forever.
Nigeria should look before it leaps.
To be forewarned is to be forearmed!
Zagazola is a Counter-Insurgency expert and security analyst in the Lake Chad region.
War Against Niger: Why Nigeria Should Look Before It Leaps
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Climate Beyond Borders Caravan Begins in Abuja, Targets Youth-Led Climate Action Across Africa
Climate Beyond Borders Caravan Begins in Abuja, Targets Youth-Led Climate Action Across Africa
By: Michael Mike
The Federal Ministry of Youth Development has thrown its weight behind the Climate Beyond Borders Caravan, a continental climate advocacy initiative aimed at mobilising young Africans to champion grassroots climate solutions and sustainable development across 17 African countries.
Speaking at the opening ceremony of the caravan in Abuja, the Honourable Minister of Youth Development, Ayodele Olawande, represented through a goodwill message, described Nigerian youths as “resourceful but underutilised,” stressing that they possess the creativity, resilience and innovative capacity required to tackle the growing climate crisis.
The initiative, organised by the People, Planet and Peace Foundation, is themed: “From Awareness to Action: Mobilizing Resourceful Nigerian Youth for Grassroots Climate Solutions.”
According to the minister, the Climate Beyond Borders Caravan will traverse 17 countries across West, East, Central and Southern Africa to promote climate advocacy, eco-tourism and community-driven environmental action.
He commended the organisers for choosing Nigeria as the starting point of the campaign, noting that climate change has evolved from being a distant environmental issue into a daily reality affecting millions of Nigerians.
“The North is experiencing desertification and drought, while the South is grappling with flooding and coastal erosion. Food prices continue to rise as changing weather patterns disrupt agriculture. The effects of climate change are now present in our homes, markets and communities,” the minister stated.
He, however, maintained that climate change also presents economic opportunities, particularly for young people, through green entrepreneurship, renewable energy, sustainable agriculture, waste management and climate-smart innovation.
The minister highlighted ongoing government interventions under the Renewed Hope Agenda of President Bola Ahmed Tinubu, including the establishment of the Youth Migration and Climate Action Resilience Department within the ministry.
He also referenced the ministry’s Circular Economy Youth Empowerment Initiative, popularly known as Waste to Wealth, which aims to create employment opportunities for 37,000 youths by converting waste into eco-friendly products and valuable resources.
Emphasising the importance of collective responsibility, the minister said practical actions such as planting trees, clearing drainage systems, recycling plastic waste and community participation remain critical in mitigating climate change.
He expressed optimism that the caravan’s activities, including the Abuja capacity-building programme, engagements in Ogun State and a climate walk in Lagos themed “Keep It Clean, Keep It Green: Our Environment, Our Responsibility,” would inspire grassroots mobilisation and long-term environmental consciousness.
“As this caravan journeys across Africa, it sends a powerful message that young Africans are not waiting for others to solve our problems. We are taking ownership of our future,” the minister added.
Also speaking at the event, Dr. Joseph Omoniyi of the Federal Ministry of Innovation, Science and Technology described the caravan as a strategic continental tour designed to identify local technologies capable of addressing climate-related challenges in different African countries.
According to him, the initiative seeks to build a database of indigenous technologies and lifestyle innovations that can be adapted by youths across participating countries to address environmental problems and support national climate commitments.
“The attempt is to find technologies that are peculiar to those countries and create a library of local solutions that can be harnessed by the youth,” he said.
Dr. Omoniyi further expressed hope that the exercise would culminate in a broader African climate summit where findings from the caravan would be harmonised to strengthen Africa’s contribution at global climate negotiations, particularly the United Nations climate conferences.
A Kenyan climate advocate and founder of Roots of Hope, Mariam Abdreshi, said the caravan was necessary because climate change continues to affect communities across Africa, especially women.
She noted that women remain central to community development and are often disproportionately impacted by environmental crises.
“As youth, we know we are responsible for building a better generation, but elders also have knowledge to guide us. This caravan is important because it connects communities and helps us grow a greener Africa,” she said.
The co-organiser and caravan leader, Olatunji Olayiton-Francisco, said the capacity-building sessions were specifically designed to equip young people with practical knowledge and advocacy skills needed to confront climate-related challenges in their local environments.
He explained that after Nigeria, the team would continue to countries including Benin Republic and Togo, alongside other selected African nations where climate champions have already been mobilised.
“Our expectation is that after empowering the youth, they will return to their communities and champion climate advocacy and environmental responsibility wherever they are,” he said.
Private sector stakeholders also pledged stronger support for climate action during the event.
Founder of Artuno and CarbonScope360, Ayo Ogunlowo, stressed the need for sustained advocacy, incentives and government-backed policies to drive youth participation in climate action.
He argued that climate interventions must go beyond awareness campaigns and produce tangible economic and social benefits for communities.
“We need advocacy, commercialization and governance working together. Climate action should not just be about ticking boxes; people must benefit from it,” Ogunlowo said.
He further advocated for locally developed innovations tailored to African realities instead of overdependence on imported solutions.
Ogunlowo revealed that Artuno recently launched a N100 million climate innovation fund to support environmentally sustainable businesses.
According to him, the first phase of the intervention had already supported three businesses involved in reusable sanitary pads production, alternative energy solutions and paper recycling initiatives aimed at reducing open burning.
He added that his organisation is also sponsoring more than 200 schoolchildren while supporting women-focused environmental empowerment programmes across communities.
Climate Beyond Borders Caravan Begins in Abuja, Targets Youth-Led Climate Action Across Africa
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Fresh Crisis Rocks Osun APC as Aspirants Reject Ife Primary, Allege Imposition, Delegate Exclusion
Fresh Crisis Rocks Osun APC as Aspirants Reject Ife Primary, Allege Imposition, Delegate Exclusion
By: Michael Mike
A fresh political crisis has erupted within the All Progressives Congress in Osun State following allegations of widespread manipulation, delegate exclusion, intimidation, and candidate imposition during the party’s House of Representatives primary election in Ife Federal Constituency.
The disputed primary, held on Saturday, May 16, has triggered outrage among aspirants and party stakeholders, who accused influential figures within the party hierarchy of hijacking the exercise and undermining internal democracy.
The aggrieved aspirants alleged that the credibility of the primary process was compromised by desperate political interests allegedly operating under the influence of Osun APC Chairman, Tajudeen Lawal, popularly known as “Sooko.”
According to multiple accounts from wards and local government areas across the constituency, many recognised party members and delegates were allegedly prevented from participating in the exercise despite expectations that the primary would be transparent, inclusive, and democratic.
The dissatisfied aspirants described the process as a “scam,” alleging that figures and results were arbitrarily allocated to favoured candidates even before voting was concluded in some areas.
They further claimed that the exercise was characterised by intimidation, violence, and acts of thuggery, developments they said have deepened divisions within the party and raised serious concerns over the future of internal democracy in the Osun APC.
“The entire process was manipulated from the beginning. Genuine delegates were sidelined while party leaders imposed their preferred outcome,” one of the aggrieved stakeholders alleged.
The controversy is the latest sign of intensifying internal tensions within the Osun APC ahead of future electoral contests, as rival blocs continue to battle for control of the party structure in the state.
Political observers say the latest crisis could further weaken the opposition party in Osun, where it has struggled to regain political stability following its defeat in the 2022 governorship election.
The allegations have also revived memories of the controversial APC primary election conducted in the constituency on May 27, 2022, which similarly generated accusations of irregularities, manipulation, and exclusion among party members.
Several stakeholders claimed that the same pattern of political interference and delegate suppression witnessed during the 2022 exercise resurfaced during Saturday’s primary.
The aggrieved aspirants insisted that the disputed outcome has not yet received official recognition from the national leadership of the APC, noting that petitions and formal complaints have already been submitted to the party’s national secretariat.
They also argued that the legitimacy of the process remains uncertain because the Independent National Electoral Commission has yet to validate the conduct of the primary.
The development has heightened anxiety among party loyalists in the constituency, with fears that unresolved grievances could trigger defections, parallel structures, or prolonged legal battles capable of weakening the party ahead of future elections.
Analysts say the growing disputes within the Osun APC reflect wider internal struggles currently confronting major political parties across Nigeria, where accusations of imposition, delegate manipulation, and lack of transparency have continued to threaten party cohesion and democratic processes.
In recent years, party primaries across the country have increasingly become flashpoints for litigation and internal rebellion, with dissatisfied aspirants often challenging outcomes in court or defecting to rival platforms.
For many observers, the unfolding crisis in Ife Federal Constituency is another test of the APC leadership’s ability to manage internal disputes and restore confidence among party members in Osun State.
As of the time of filing this report, the Osun APC leadership had yet to officially respond to the allegations surrounding the conduct of the primary election.
Fresh Crisis Rocks Osun APC as Aspirants Reject Ife Primary, Allege Imposition, Delegate Exclusion
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NHRC Raises Alarm Over Rising Rights Violations, Records 266,787 Complaints in One Month
NHRC Raises Alarm Over Rising Rights Violations, Records 266,787 Complaints in One Month
By: Michael Mike
The National Human Rights Commission (NHRC) has raised fresh concerns over worsening human rights conditions in Nigeria, revealing that it received a staggering 266,787 complaints nationwide in April 2026 amid rising insecurity, extra-judicial killings, economic hardship, communal violence, and growing threats to civic freedoms.
The alarming figures were disclosed on Monday in Abuja by the Executive Secretary of the commission, Tony Ojukwu, during the presentation of the April 2026 Human Rights Situation Dashboard and the signing of an Advisory on Protecting Civic Space and Human Rights.
The development comes as Nigeria continues to grapple with escalating security challenges, increasing reports of civilian casualties during military operations, kidnappings, mob violence, gender-based abuse, and persistent allegations of misconduct by law enforcement agencies.
Addressing diplomats, civil society groups, government representatives, development partners, and media stakeholders at the event, Ojukwu said the scale of complaints received by the commission reflects the harsh realities confronting millions of Nigerians daily.
According to him, the complaints cut across issues of discrimination, abuse of authority, insecurity, economic deprivation, and lack of access to justice.
“These complaints reflect the everyday realities faced by Nigerians and underscore the persistence of challenges relating to discrimination, insecurity, abuse of authority, economic hardship, and access to justice,” he said.
Beyond formal complaints lodged at NHRC offices nationwide, Ojukwu noted that the commission’s Human Rights Observatory also tracked broader patterns of abuse and rights violations during the period under review.
He said April 2026 witnessed continued incidents of violent attacks, kidnappings, communal clashes, displacement, gender-based violence, mob actions, and alleged human rights violations linked to security operations.
Of particular concern, according to the NHRC boss, was the recent military airstrike incident in Borno State which reportedly resulted in civilian casualties.
Although he did not specify the exact location of the incident, Ojukwu said the commission had already called for a “thorough, transparent, and independent investigation” in line with Nigeria’s constitutional and international human rights obligations.
The incident has triggered growing national debate over civilian protection during counter-insurgency operations in the North-East, where Nigerian security forces continue to battle insurgent groups and armed criminal networks.
“While recognizing the difficult security environment within which security agencies operate, the protection of civilian lives must remain paramount at all times,” Ojukwu stated.
“Respect for human rights and adherence to international humanitarian principles are essential components of effective security operations and democratic governance.”
The NHRC also expressed deep concern over what it described as a rising trend of extra-judicial killings allegedly involving law enforcement and security agencies.
According to Ojukwu, the commission’s observatory documented more than five cases of extra-judicial killings in April alone.
“Human life is sacred and cannot be taken away by trigger-happy officers of our law enforcement and security agencies,” he declared.
The commission, however, acknowledged recent steps taken by the Nigeria Police Force leadership, while calling for swift prosecution of implicated officers and compensation for affected families.
The presentation of the Human Rights Situation Dashboard formed part of the NHRC’s broader effort to institutionalise evidence-based monitoring and accountability since the initiative was introduced in 2024.
Analysts say the dashboard has increasingly become an important national accountability mechanism for identifying trends, monitoring rights abuses, and drawing attention to emerging threats across the country.
Alongside the dashboard presentation, the commission also signed an Advisory on Protecting Civic Space and Human Rights, a move stakeholders described as significant amid rising concerns over shrinking civic freedoms globally and within Nigeria.
Ojukwu warned that civic spaces around the world are coming under increasing pressure through restrictions on freedom of expression, peaceful assembly, media operations, association, and citizen participation.
He explained that the advisory, developed through consultations with civil society groups and development partners, provides practical guidance for safeguarding constitutional freedoms and democratic participation.
“A vibrant civic space remains essential to democracy, accountability, peace-building, and national development,” he said.
The commission specifically acknowledged the contributions of the Nigerian Network of Non-Governmental Organizations and the Heinrich Böll Foundation in supporting the initiative.
Human rights observers say the NHRC’s latest report underscores growing concerns over the intersection of insecurity, economic pressures, weak law enforcement accountability, and democratic tensions in Nigeria.
Over the past decade, rights groups have repeatedly raised alarm over allegations of unlawful killings, arbitrary arrests, torture, restrictions on protests, and abuses linked to counter-terrorism operations.
The NHRC boss stressed that every complaint received by the commission represents a citizen seeking dignity, justice, and protection, insisting that the commission would continue to strengthen accountability mechanisms, expand access to justice, and deepen civic engagement through collaboration with stakeholders.
“We remain committed to strengthening accountability, expanding access to justice, deepening civic engagement, and advancing evidence-based human rights interventions,” Ojukwu said.
He called on government institutions, security agencies, civil society organisations, and development partners to intensify support for the protection of human dignity and democratic values across the country.
NHRC Raises Alarm Over Rising Rights Violations, Records 266,787 Complaints in One Month
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