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War Against Niger: Why Nigeria Should Look Before It Leaps
War Against Niger: Why Nigeria Should Look Before It Leaps
By Zagazola Makama
Carefully observing the geopolitical map of AFRICA, WAGNER Operation and disassociation from WEST hegemony straddles a straight line from coasts of SENEGAL to SUDAN where a geo-strategic interest lies.
It appears the diversion is in AFRICA, which has become the proxy area for the UKRAINE – RUSSIA war.
In retrospect, the campaign against WESTERN hegemony, especially FRANCE, had eaten deep into AFRICA and has potentially no reverse, as calls rose for, first, AFRICAN leadership to own their countries’ wealth and, second, a united AFRICA.
Equally, WAGNER, an extension of RUSSIAN military diplomacy, spearheaded a Psychological Operations measure to divert attention of NATO and other WESTERN powers’ attention as EUROPE continues to become tense over the UKRAINE – RUSSIA conflict.
For now, WESTERN dominance is on the verge of pulling more resources to maintain relations with AFRICA.
Whatever the consequences, a RUSSIA-led support virus had already been inoculated into the streams of support by part of AFRICA to take sides.
This, therefore, forms the context in which the buildup of tension between the NIGERIA-led ECOWAS and NIGER REPUBLIC over the recent coup overthrowing the Mohammed Bazoum-led democratically elected government of the West African francophone nation should be viewed.
The Bola Ahmed Tinubu-led government of Nigeria seems hell-bent on leading the combined ECOWAS military to storm Niamey, root out the coupists, free Bazoum from their captivity and reinstate him president of NIGER.
There are numerous salient facts with regard to NIGERIA-NIGER Republic relations that deserve crucial consideration before the ECOWAS forces pounce on NIGER.
This consideration is imperative for NIGERIA to avoid being deceived into a proxy war that will, in the long run, cause its drastic and cataclysmic fall from the enviable heights of West African Giant and, possibly, African leadership.
The most-startling of these facts.
Seven states in NIGERIA, stretching from the North-West to the North-East geopolitical zones border NIGER. The peoples of these states savor centuries-old sociocultural affinity and amity with the peoples of the southern flank of NIGER, contributing substantially to the economies of the countries for ages.
These close ties are about to be crushed by the ECOWAS forces.
Intelligence suggests despite sanctions by ECOWAS, BENIN Republic has opened up borders to NIGER, implying its disagreement with the gang up measure against its neighbor. Suspicion places NIGERIA in tight corners as pro-WEST to act spontaneously against its neighbor.
This is possibly as part of WAGNER psychological Operation to seek further movement of the PMC personnel into NIAMEY in part and WEST AFRICA as a whole.
NIGERIA-NIGER relations have always been excellent up until now. For instance, NIGER is always actively in support of NIGERIA during Counter insurgency Operations of the Multinational Joint Task Force and provides ISR as well as Air Interdiction during most missions.
Military operations, economic transfer and numerous other friendly relations exist between both nations.
The coup may have changed the politics but has not disemboweled the close ties or similarities in cultural and social identity between NIGERIA and her neighbors.
It is assumed the target to frustrate NIGERIA’s key role economically, politically and militarily after solely containing more than a decade old insurgency is likely.
Hence, NIGERIA should continue a broader defense diplomacy with its neighbors to maintain a steady course in foreign policy.
The strong ties NIGERIA with its neighbors should be used to overcome plans to utilize AFRICA as grounds for proxy war between the WESTERN and EASTERN powers.
There is a need for NIGERIA to showcase the big-brother position in aligning with AFRICA’s unity and suggest to her neighbors that despite all shortcomings, measures other than coup may not be a solution.
There is a need to call on the leadership of MALI, BURKINA FASO, GUINEA and others to realize support for one another as well as to devise means of solving the major issues of developing strategies against terrorism and western hegemony.
It will, therefore, be unfortunate to deploy force to NIGER.
Information suggests GHANA, TOGO, GAMBIA and LIBERIA have said they will not deploy troops to NIGER. More so, Mali, Burkina Faso, and Guinea, three West African nations, have backed the coup leaders in Niger, a move that poses a threat to regional stability. this is a trap for NIGERIA.
NIGERIA, for her own good, must not fall into this trap. It could be disastrous for, first, its status in the West African region and, indeed, the entire African continent; and, second, its existence as one enviably politically, diplomatically and economically powerful entity in global affairs.
The possible abstention of some of the West African nations from the impending war is not because ECOWAS does not have the capability to deploy a force to NIGER, but because other members will not commit as much resources as expected.
Moreover, ECOWAS will have to explain why it didn’t deploy similar forces to BURKINA FASO, MALI and GUINEA where their military also toppled democratic governments.
Generally, it will be a big strategic miscalculation for NIGERIA to commit to such externalities, with the several internal challenges facing the country.
A diplomatic solution to NIGER’s problem will be the best at this moment. NIGERIA has nothing to prove to the world except its proficiency in diplomatic relations and standing tall in might as a big brother. NIGERIA’s military diplomacy should play a key role in turning key issues.
NIGERIA faces devastating consequences should the war be carried out against NIGER.
Nigeria is strategically positioned into a geographical zone that it can never Win a War on the NIGER REPUBLIC even if the Military Junta is chased out of Niamey.
The following are definite to be the price of the aggression on the NIGER REPUBLIC by ECOWAS by the West African allied forces:
First: Losing President Bazoum. For sure, the first consequences of the War on NIGER is that NIGERIA will only have the corpse of MOHAMMED BAZOUM whom PRESIDENT TINUBU led ECOWAS is so anxious to reinstate immediately Niamey is captured.
Is Nigeria or any fighter for the restoration of democracy ready for that to happen?
Second: More enmity will emanate against Nigeria within the West African region. The country will have more regional enemies than friends because all the Countries bordering NIGER REPUBLIC will not condone the aggression even if they restrain from attacking Nigeria in defense of their ally in the protection of their sovereignty.
Third: Diplomatic relations among West African nations could worsen, leading to the possible collapse of ECOWAS. This situation would be catastrophic to the economy of the region as free movement of its citizens becomes a big regional threat. Already Niger Republic is hosting over 300,000 Nigerian Refugees in Diffa, Bosso and Tumour. These IDPs are already facing stigmatization and humiliation from their host and soon they may be asked to leave.
Four: There could be a proliferation of unprecedentedly frightening forms of terrorism as a result of the presence of huge amounts of Bõko Harām Insurgents across the borders of the two countries that stretched into Mali, Burkina Faso up to the Sene-Gambian Region. Fledgeling or the collapse of ECOWAS would facilitate the infiltration of terrorist groups into the countries much easier than what happened to ISIS’s cross border operations in Syria, Iraq, Turkey and parts of Egypt’s Sinai mountainous region.
In this scenario, more massive funding will be made towards sponsoring “Terrorists Groups”, thus creating more others by International Agencies who have been enemies to “Global Peace” to control sensitively viable areas of economic importance for eventually ceaseless attacks such as the ongoing “Armed Banditry and Kidnappings” that are rampant in the Region.
Five: Inflation and economic recession is definitely going to hit Nigeria immediately the war starts, causing millions of people across the region to lose their jobs, causing high cost of living for the ordinary citizens of both countries.
Six: Famine and rampant deaths would be inevitable as a result of the hampering of all agricultural activities, with the war intensifying where massive hectares of land shall remain without being harvested for more than 75 percent of the region in the same technical manner Bõko Harām disrupts farming for than a decade throughout most parts of the North-East.
Seven: Massive migration across West Africa, and, possibly, between West Africa and other contiguous regions of the African continent would take place as refugees from both sides keep flooding the Sub-saharan region.
With Nigeria presently finding it difficult to manage the growing humanitarian crisis with millions of its Internally Displaced Persons (IDPS) due to terrorism and banditry, another unsustainable chaotic conditions will be artificially created for it to handle.
For sure, when the drums of War are beaten and the planned aggression on the NIGER REPUBLIC commences, NORTHERN NIGERIA’s (Arēwa) Region, from Gamboru to Kamba, From ILLELA/JIBIYA/MAI-ADUWA/MAIGATARI to OTURKPO would be submerged in total full scale insecurity.
This could threaten the existence of NORTHERN NIGERIA. Once NORTHERN NIGERIA is gone, the official Federation of what is known as Nigeria would be “Badly Bargained”, forever.
Nigeria should look before it leaps.
To be forewarned is to be forearmed!
Zagazola is a Counter-Insurgency expert and security analyst in the Lake Chad region.
War Against Niger: Why Nigeria Should Look Before It Leaps
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Fake report of unrest at unijos debunked, military assures campus security
Fake report of unrest at unijos debunked, military assures campus security
By: Zagazola Makama
The Management of the University of Jos and the Nigerian military have dismissed as false and misleading a viral report alleging unrest, chaos, and destruction within the institution, describing it as a deliberate attempt to cause panic and misinformation.
The fake report, which circulated on social media alongside an image claimed to depict violence on campus, suggested that “student grievances had escalated into chaos” with alleged destruction and insecurity within the university environment.

However, checks by Zagazola and confirmation from university authorities indicate that the situation at the University of Jos remains calm, peaceful, and under control, with normal activities ongoing.
It was further gathered that the image accompanying the false report was generated using Artificial Intelligence and does not reflect any real incident within or around the university.
A senior security source told Zagazola Makama that the General Officer Commanding 3 Division, Nigerian Army and Commander Joint Task Force Operation ENDURING PEACE, Major General E.F. Oyinlola, personally led troops to the University of Jos following the circulation of the fake report.

During the visit, the GOC met with the Vice Chancellor of the institution and assured management of the Nigerian Army’s commitment to safeguarding the university community, students, and staff against any form of threat or security breach.
The military described the viral publication as “fake news deliberately designed to cause confusion, panic, and distrust,” urging members of the public to disregard it in its entirety.
Authorities further cautioned against the circulation of unverified content, especially digitally manipulated images, warning that such misinformation could incite unnecessary fear and disrupt public peace.
The University of Jos management also reaffirmed that there was no unrest or security breach on campus, stressing that academic activities were proceeding without disruption.
Security agencies assured continued surveillance and protection of the institution as part of ongoing efforts under Operation ENDURING PEACE to maintain stability across Plateau State.
The public has been urged to rely only on verified information from official sources and avoid sharing content capable of undermining peace and order in the state.
Fake report of unrest at unijos debunked, military assures campus security
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Athena Observatory Warns of Deepening Structural Risks in Nigeria’s Democracy
Athena Observatory Warns of Deepening Structural Risks in Nigeria’s Democracy
By: Michael Mike
A new policy report has raised fresh concerns about the stability of Nigeria’s democratic system, warning that growing political fragmentation and institutional strain could undermine the credibility of elections ahead of the 2027 general polls.
The report, released on Tuesday by the Athena Election Observatory (AEO), marks the debut of its Political Landscape Monitor—a policy series designed to track and analyse the country’s evolving electoral environment. Titled “Nigeria’s Democracy and the Imperative of Competitive Politics,” the inaugural note paints a sobering picture of a political system struggling to keep pace with its own internal dynamics.
According to the Observatory, a pattern is emerging across Nigeria’s major political parties in which leadership disputes, fragile alliances, and factional battles are becoming increasingly common. While these crises may appear isolated, the report argues they are symptoms of a deeper structural imbalance.
At the heart of the problem, it said, is a widening gap between political activity and institutional capacity. Political actors, driven by the urgency of coalition-building and power consolidation, are moving faster than the rules and structures meant to regulate them.
“This is not just about party disagreements,” the report noted. “It is about the weakening of the systems that are supposed to organise competition, manage conflict, and ultimately guarantee meaningful choice for voters.”
The analysis drew from recent developments within prominent parties such as the African Democratic Congress (ADC), the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), and the Labour Party, where internal tensions and contested leadership claims have repeatedly spilled into the public domain.
Observers say the trend reflects a broader shift in how political disputes are resolved in Nigeria. Rather than being settled through internal party mechanisms, disagreements are increasingly pushed toward external institutions—particularly the courts and electoral regulators.
The report highlighted the pivotal role of the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) in this process. Its decisions on which party factions to recognise can effectively determine leadership outcomes, making it a central actor in intra-party struggles.
While acknowledging INEC’s constitutional mandate, the Observatory cautioned that inconsistent or opaque decision-making could erode public confidence. It called for clearer procedures and stricter adherence to impartiality to prevent the Commission from being perceived as a political arbiter.
Equally significant is the growing reliance on the judiciary to settle political disputes. The report warned that while the courts remain essential for upholding the rule of law, their increasing involvement in intra-party conflicts risks displacing internal governance systems.
Legal interventions, it argued, should serve as a last resort—not a default mechanism.
“When courts become the primary arena for resolving political disagreements, parties gradually lose the capacity to govern themselves,” the report states. “Over time, this weakens the entire democratic ecosystem.”
Beyond institutional concerns, the Observatory drew attention to the implications for ordinary voters. A fragmented political landscape, it said, reduces the clarity and credibility of electoral choices, leaving citizens with options that may lack cohesion or long-term viability.
In such conditions, elections risk becoming procedural exercises rather than meaningful expressions of democratic will.
The report ultimately framed the issue as a national, rather than partisan, challenge. Strengthening the institutional foundations of political competition, it argued, is critical not only for credible elections but also for political stability and governance.
As Nigeria edges closer to another election cycle, the findings serve as a stark reminder that the health of a democracy depends not just on the conduct of elections, but on the strength of the systems that shape them long before ballots are cast.
The Athena Election Observatory said it will continue to publish periodic assessments under its Political Landscape Monitor, offering data-driven insights into the trends shaping Nigeria’s political future.
Athena Observatory Warns of Deepening Structural Risks in Nigeria’s Democracy
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Agriculture partnership: Gov Yahaya to get Sasakawa’s Special Award
Agriculture partnership: Gov Yahaya to get Sasakawa’s Special Award
Governor Muhammadu Inuwa Yahaya of Gombe State will be honoured with a Special Recognition Award by the Sasakawa Africa Association (SAA) Nigeria, in acknowledgement of the state’s sustained partnership and strategic commitment to agricultural development.
The award will be presented at the 2026 SAA Nigeria Annual Stakeholders Workshop on Thursday, April 9, 2026, in Abuja, where top federal officials, development partners, diplomats, and state governments are expected to gather to discuss pathways for strengthening Nigeria’s food systems.
The workshop, holding at Rockview Royale Hotel, Wuse II, is themed “SAA @ 40: Deepening Impact and Expanding Reach at Scale.”
The recognition of Governor Inuwa Yahaya reflects the depth of Gombe State’s collaboration with SAA over the years, which has supported agricultural extension, smallholder productivity, and rural livelihoods.
Since its creation in 1996, Gombe State has maintained a working relationship with SAA, funded by The Nippon Foundation, to implement initiatives that improve food security, nutrition, climate resilience, and inclusive agricultural services, with particular attention to women, youth, and resource-poor farmers.
Speaking ahead of the workshop, Dr. Godwin Atser, Country Director of SAA Nigeria, said:
“This recognition celebrates a partnership backed by action. Governor Inuwa Yahaya’s leadership reflects the kind of subnational commitment essential for transforming agriculture in Nigeria.
Gombe State’s sustained support for farmer-focused interventions demonstrates what can be achieved when political will, institutional alignment, and practical investment converge.”
SAA Nigeria’s collaboration with Gombe State encompasses a wide range of interventions, including Farmer Learning Platforms (FLP), Community Savings and Investment in Agriculture (CSIA), Private Extension Service Provision (PESP), and Community-Based Seed Multiplication (CBSM), among others. Together, these initiatives strengthen the agricultural ecosystem from production to post harvest, improve access to technology, knowledge, and markets, and enhance the capacities of farmers and rural actors.
The partnership also encourages pluralistic extension systems, involving the private sector, farmer organizations, research institutions, and civil society in scaling agricultural services across the state. This multi-dimensional cooperation underscores why Gombe State’s collaboration is deserving of recognition.
As SAA marks 40 years of operations in Africa and 33 years in Nigeria, the organization notes that sustainable agricultural transformation requires long-term commitment, collaboration, and strategic investment, qualities exemplified by Gombe State and Governor Inuwa Yahaya.
The recognition will be part of a broader conversation at the 2026 Annual Stakeholders Workshop, which will review SAA’s 2021–2025 achievements, share lessons, and explore future partnerships to strengthen agriculture in Nigeria and across Africa.
About Sasakawa Africa Association (SAA)
Sasakawa Africa Association (SAA) was established in 1986 by Japanese philanthropist Ryoichi Sasakawa, Nobel Laureate Dr. Norman Borlaug, and former U.S. President Jimmy Carter.
Dedicated to improving the productivity, profitability, and resilience of smallholder farmers in sub-Saharan Africa, SAA operates through agricultural extension, capacity building, and systems strengthening. Active in Nigeria since 1993, SAA collaborates with governments, research institutions, universities, private sector actors, and development partners to advance farmer-centered agricultural transformation.
Agriculture partnership: Gov Yahaya to get Sasakawa’s Special Award
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