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War Against Niger: Why Nigeria Should Look Before It Leaps
War Against Niger: Why Nigeria Should Look Before It Leaps
By Zagazola Makama
Carefully observing the geopolitical map of AFRICA, WAGNER Operation and disassociation from WEST hegemony straddles a straight line from coasts of SENEGAL to SUDAN where a geo-strategic interest lies.
It appears the diversion is in AFRICA, which has become the proxy area for the UKRAINE – RUSSIA war.
In retrospect, the campaign against WESTERN hegemony, especially FRANCE, had eaten deep into AFRICA and has potentially no reverse, as calls rose for, first, AFRICAN leadership to own their countries’ wealth and, second, a united AFRICA.
Equally, WAGNER, an extension of RUSSIAN military diplomacy, spearheaded a Psychological Operations measure to divert attention of NATO and other WESTERN powers’ attention as EUROPE continues to become tense over the UKRAINE – RUSSIA conflict.
For now, WESTERN dominance is on the verge of pulling more resources to maintain relations with AFRICA.
Whatever the consequences, a RUSSIA-led support virus had already been inoculated into the streams of support by part of AFRICA to take sides.
This, therefore, forms the context in which the buildup of tension between the NIGERIA-led ECOWAS and NIGER REPUBLIC over the recent coup overthrowing the Mohammed Bazoum-led democratically elected government of the West African francophone nation should be viewed.
The Bola Ahmed Tinubu-led government of Nigeria seems hell-bent on leading the combined ECOWAS military to storm Niamey, root out the coupists, free Bazoum from their captivity and reinstate him president of NIGER.
There are numerous salient facts with regard to NIGERIA-NIGER Republic relations that deserve crucial consideration before the ECOWAS forces pounce on NIGER.
This consideration is imperative for NIGERIA to avoid being deceived into a proxy war that will, in the long run, cause its drastic and cataclysmic fall from the enviable heights of West African Giant and, possibly, African leadership.
The most-startling of these facts.
Seven states in NIGERIA, stretching from the North-West to the North-East geopolitical zones border NIGER. The peoples of these states savor centuries-old sociocultural affinity and amity with the peoples of the southern flank of NIGER, contributing substantially to the economies of the countries for ages.
These close ties are about to be crushed by the ECOWAS forces.
Intelligence suggests despite sanctions by ECOWAS, BENIN Republic has opened up borders to NIGER, implying its disagreement with the gang up measure against its neighbor. Suspicion places NIGERIA in tight corners as pro-WEST to act spontaneously against its neighbor.
This is possibly as part of WAGNER psychological Operation to seek further movement of the PMC personnel into NIAMEY in part and WEST AFRICA as a whole.
NIGERIA-NIGER relations have always been excellent up until now. For instance, NIGER is always actively in support of NIGERIA during Counter insurgency Operations of the Multinational Joint Task Force and provides ISR as well as Air Interdiction during most missions.
Military operations, economic transfer and numerous other friendly relations exist between both nations.
The coup may have changed the politics but has not disemboweled the close ties or similarities in cultural and social identity between NIGERIA and her neighbors.
It is assumed the target to frustrate NIGERIA’s key role economically, politically and militarily after solely containing more than a decade old insurgency is likely.
Hence, NIGERIA should continue a broader defense diplomacy with its neighbors to maintain a steady course in foreign policy.
The strong ties NIGERIA with its neighbors should be used to overcome plans to utilize AFRICA as grounds for proxy war between the WESTERN and EASTERN powers.
There is a need for NIGERIA to showcase the big-brother position in aligning with AFRICA’s unity and suggest to her neighbors that despite all shortcomings, measures other than coup may not be a solution.
There is a need to call on the leadership of MALI, BURKINA FASO, GUINEA and others to realize support for one another as well as to devise means of solving the major issues of developing strategies against terrorism and western hegemony.
It will, therefore, be unfortunate to deploy force to NIGER.
Information suggests GHANA, TOGO, GAMBIA and LIBERIA have said they will not deploy troops to NIGER. More so, Mali, Burkina Faso, and Guinea, three West African nations, have backed the coup leaders in Niger, a move that poses a threat to regional stability. this is a trap for NIGERIA.
NIGERIA, for her own good, must not fall into this trap. It could be disastrous for, first, its status in the West African region and, indeed, the entire African continent; and, second, its existence as one enviably politically, diplomatically and economically powerful entity in global affairs.
The possible abstention of some of the West African nations from the impending war is not because ECOWAS does not have the capability to deploy a force to NIGER, but because other members will not commit as much resources as expected.
Moreover, ECOWAS will have to explain why it didn’t deploy similar forces to BURKINA FASO, MALI and GUINEA where their military also toppled democratic governments.
Generally, it will be a big strategic miscalculation for NIGERIA to commit to such externalities, with the several internal challenges facing the country.
A diplomatic solution to NIGER’s problem will be the best at this moment. NIGERIA has nothing to prove to the world except its proficiency in diplomatic relations and standing tall in might as a big brother. NIGERIA’s military diplomacy should play a key role in turning key issues.
NIGERIA faces devastating consequences should the war be carried out against NIGER.
Nigeria is strategically positioned into a geographical zone that it can never Win a War on the NIGER REPUBLIC even if the Military Junta is chased out of Niamey.
The following are definite to be the price of the aggression on the NIGER REPUBLIC by ECOWAS by the West African allied forces:
First: Losing President Bazoum. For sure, the first consequences of the War on NIGER is that NIGERIA will only have the corpse of MOHAMMED BAZOUM whom PRESIDENT TINUBU led ECOWAS is so anxious to reinstate immediately Niamey is captured.
Is Nigeria or any fighter for the restoration of democracy ready for that to happen?
Second: More enmity will emanate against Nigeria within the West African region. The country will have more regional enemies than friends because all the Countries bordering NIGER REPUBLIC will not condone the aggression even if they restrain from attacking Nigeria in defense of their ally in the protection of their sovereignty.
Third: Diplomatic relations among West African nations could worsen, leading to the possible collapse of ECOWAS. This situation would be catastrophic to the economy of the region as free movement of its citizens becomes a big regional threat. Already Niger Republic is hosting over 300,000 Nigerian Refugees in Diffa, Bosso and Tumour. These IDPs are already facing stigmatization and humiliation from their host and soon they may be asked to leave.
Four: There could be a proliferation of unprecedentedly frightening forms of terrorism as a result of the presence of huge amounts of Bõko Harām Insurgents across the borders of the two countries that stretched into Mali, Burkina Faso up to the Sene-Gambian Region. Fledgeling or the collapse of ECOWAS would facilitate the infiltration of terrorist groups into the countries much easier than what happened to ISIS’s cross border operations in Syria, Iraq, Turkey and parts of Egypt’s Sinai mountainous region.
In this scenario, more massive funding will be made towards sponsoring “Terrorists Groups”, thus creating more others by International Agencies who have been enemies to “Global Peace” to control sensitively viable areas of economic importance for eventually ceaseless attacks such as the ongoing “Armed Banditry and Kidnappings” that are rampant in the Region.
Five: Inflation and economic recession is definitely going to hit Nigeria immediately the war starts, causing millions of people across the region to lose their jobs, causing high cost of living for the ordinary citizens of both countries.
Six: Famine and rampant deaths would be inevitable as a result of the hampering of all agricultural activities, with the war intensifying where massive hectares of land shall remain without being harvested for more than 75 percent of the region in the same technical manner Bõko Harām disrupts farming for than a decade throughout most parts of the North-East.
Seven: Massive migration across West Africa, and, possibly, between West Africa and other contiguous regions of the African continent would take place as refugees from both sides keep flooding the Sub-saharan region.
With Nigeria presently finding it difficult to manage the growing humanitarian crisis with millions of its Internally Displaced Persons (IDPS) due to terrorism and banditry, another unsustainable chaotic conditions will be artificially created for it to handle.
For sure, when the drums of War are beaten and the planned aggression on the NIGER REPUBLIC commences, NORTHERN NIGERIA’s (Arēwa) Region, from Gamboru to Kamba, From ILLELA/JIBIYA/MAI-ADUWA/MAIGATARI to OTURKPO would be submerged in total full scale insecurity.
This could threaten the existence of NORTHERN NIGERIA. Once NORTHERN NIGERIA is gone, the official Federation of what is known as Nigeria would be “Badly Bargained”, forever.
Nigeria should look before it leaps.
To be forewarned is to be forearmed!
Zagazola is a Counter-Insurgency expert and security analyst in the Lake Chad region.
War Against Niger: Why Nigeria Should Look Before It Leaps
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Troops repel bandits’ attack in AgatuBenue
Troops repel bandits’ attack in Agatu
Benue
By Zagazola Makama
Troops of the Nigerian Army, in collaboration with the police, repelled an attack by suspected armed bandits on a joint patrol team in Agatu Local Government Area of Benue State.
Security sources said the incident occurred at about 9:00 a.m. on April 4, when the troops on routine patrol encountered the armed bandits.
According to the sources, the bandits opened fire on sighting the troops, leading to a gun duel.
“The troops responded decisively, forcing the bandits to retreat after a brief exchange of fire,” the source said.
The attackers reportedly fled through a nearby river, taking advantage of the difficult terrain.
The sources confirmed that no casualty was recorded among the troops during the encounter.
Following the incident, troops have intensified patrols and commenced combing operations in surrounding bushes to track down the fleeing suspects.
The operation is part of ongoing efforts by the military to curb banditry and sustain peace in the area.
Troops repel bandits’ attack in Agatu
Benue
News
Six more top bandit leaders eliminated alongside Ado Allero’s son in Zamfara offensive
Six more top bandit leaders eliminated alongside Ado Allero’s son in Zamfara offensive
By Zagazola Makama
Additional details have emerged on the identities of notorious bandit leaders eliminated during the recent military offensive in Tsafe Local Government Area of Zamfara State, where the son of feared kingpin Ado Allero and scores of fighters were neutralised.
At the heart of the operation was the elimination of Kachalla Iliya Sarki, the son of Ado Allero, alongside more than 65 fighters and several high-ranking commanders who had long orchestrated attacks, kidnappings, and cattle rustling across Zamfara and neighbouring states.

For years, the forests of Tsafe, Shinkafi, and Zurmi have served as operational bases for heavily armed groups, with Allero’s network emerging as one of the most feared. The death of his son, widely regarded as a rising figure within the hierarchy, is not just a tactical success, it is a symbolic strike at the core of the group’s command structure.
Security sources confirmed that the offensive, which targeted multiple camps in Munhaye and surrounding forest enclaves, led to the elimination of several key commanders.

Among them was Kachalla Biyabiki, a notorious kidnapping kingpin linked to numerous abductions in the western Tsafe axis. Intelligence indicated he had at least 10 victims in captivity at the time of his death, with ransom negotiations ongoing.
Also killed was Kachalla Dogon Bete, a feared field commander known for leading violent raids on rural communities and coordinating cattle rustling operations.
Other commanders neutralised include Kachalla Dan Bakolo, believed to be responsible for arms supply and logistics; Kachalla Na’Isa, a sub-commander involved in enforcement operations; Kachalla Yellow, linked to reprisal attacks; and Kachalla Mudi, associated with kidnapping activities along rural transit routes.

Together, these figures formed a critical part of the operational backbone of banditry in the Tsafe–Shinkafi corridor.
“These individuals were key actors within the network. Their neutralisation has disrupted command and control structures in the area,” a security source said.
The offensive, which targeted multiple camps in Munhaye and surrounding forest enclaves, also resulted in the destruction of hideouts and recovery of weapons and other logistics.
However, security experts warn that the killing of such high-profile figures—particularly the son of Ado Allero—may provoke retaliatory attacks by fleeing elements seeking revenge.
Troops have consequently intensified clearance operations, aerial surveillance, and aggressive patrols across Tsafe, Shinkafi, and adjoining areas to prevent regrouping and forestall possible reprisals.
Efforts are ongoing to track down remaining loyalists and dismantle residual cells operating within the wider Zamfara-Katsina forest corridor.
In Zamfara’s forests, where power shifts quickly and alliances are fluid, today’s victory can only be secured by tomorrow’s vigilance.
Six more top bandit leaders eliminated alongside Ado Allero’s son in Zamfara offensive
News
Why truth, not narratives, will end the killings in Plateau’s endless cycle of bloodshed
Why truth, not narratives, will end the killings in Plateau’s endless cycle of bloodshed
By Zagazola Makama
In Plateau State, the sound of gunfire is no longer shocking. It is expected. What follows each incident has also become predictable outrage, media attention, blames and accusations, as well as a rush to frame the tragedy within familiar narratives.
The latest reports of miners lynched by unknown gunmen have once again drawn national and international attention. Youth leaders, clerics, and advocacy groups are already describing the incident in sweeping terms, some branding it as genocide.
But beneath the headlines lies a more complicated and more troubling reality. Plateau is not witnessing isolated acts of violence. It is caught in a deeply entrenched cycle of reprisals, where attacks and counter-attacks have become the norm, and where truth is often buried beneath sentiment and selective narratives.
In the early hours of April 3, troops responded to a distress call from Sabongida village in Jos South Local Government Area. What they found was grim: the lifeless, beheaded body of a 30-year-old herder, identified as Shafiyu, lying in the bush. Security sources indicated that the killing was allegedly carried out by suspected Berom youths. Before the shock of that incident could settle, retaliation came swiftly.
Later that same day, armed men attacked an illegal mining site in Gyel village, Riyom Local Government Area. Three miners, including Samuel Davou, were killed in cold blood, while others fled for safety as troops moved in to secure the area. What might appear as separate incidents are, in reality, part of a continuous chain of violence, one feeding directly into the other.
Across Plateau, recent events reveal a troubling pattern that has defined the conflict for years.
On March 25, the body of Abdullahi Mohammed , a Fulani boy, was discovered in a shallow grave in Mangu Local Government Area, raising suspicions of targeted killing. On the same day in Riyom, irrigation farms belonging to several farmers were destroyed, by Fulani herdsmen, an act capable of provoking immediate retaliation.
Three days later, on March 28, gunmen assassinated Alhaji Bilyaminu Julde, a prominent Fulani community leader and Ardo of Gindiri, in Barkin Ladi. The attack, carried out at his residence, sent ignited tensions through the Fulani community and set off alarm bells across the state.
That same day, another flashpoint emerged in Riyom, where stray cattle destroyed farmlands in Tahoss village an incident that further strained relations between farmers and herders.
By April 2, violence had escalated again. In Bokkos Local Government Area, troops foiled an attack by suspected armed herders following a clash with vigilantes over grazing disputes. One vigilante sustained gunshot injuries.
Then came April 3, a day that encapsulated the crisis. Aside from the killing of the herder in Sabongida and the retaliatory attack on miners in Gyel, more killing were reported in Jos South.
On the same day, troops in Barkin Ladi recovered suspected rustled cattle reportedly taken by the Birom armed militia, while in Riyom, another Fulani youth was allegedly killed in an isolated attack. Each of these incidents is not just an entry in a security log. They are links in a chain, each one strengthening the justification for the next.
The Plateau conflict has increasingly been framed through singular lenses, often ethnic or religious. While these dimensions exist, they do not fully capture the complexity of what is happening on the ground. What emerges from security reports and field accounts is a cycle of reciprocal violence involving armed elements across communities. Fulani herders have been attacked and killed. Berom farmers and miners have also been targeted in deadly reprisals.
Yet, public discourse often pointing fongers only one side of the suffering.
This selective framing creates a dangerous distortion. It fuels anger, deepens divisions, and makes reconciliation even more difficult. More importantly, it prevents a clear understanding of the crisis one that is essential for any meaningful solution.
As observed by Simon Kolawole, the conflict has become a cycle of “attacks and counter-attacks, reprisals and counter-reprisals.”
In such an environment, violence becomes normalized. Communities begin to see retaliation not as a crime, but as justice.
Without accountability, peace remains elusive,”he said in his latest article, titled The Killing fields in plateau State.
In Plateau State, the search for peace has become a long, uncertain journey with no immediate destination in sight. Despite sustained military deployments and repeated calls for calm, deadly attacks continue to rage across communities, reinforcing a grim reality: this is a conflict deeply rooted in cycles of violence, mistrust, and silence.
For many residents, the first instinct after every attack is to look toward the government, Security forces and President Bola Ahmed Tinubu. Questions are asked why were the troops not there? Why was the intelligence not acted upon? Why are communities left exposed?
These concerns are valid. The primary responsibility of any government is the protection of lives and property. Yet, beneath these criticisms lies a difficult truth that is often left unspoken. In many cases, the same communities that demand protection are unwilling to confront the problem from within.
Across flashpoints in Riyom, Barkin Ladi, Bokkos, and Mangu, patterns have consistent which suggest that perpetrators of violence are not faceless outsiders operating in isolation. They are often known by name, by face, by affiliation. But they are rarely exposed. Instead, a culture of silence prevails. Fear, loyalty, and sometimes complicity prevent communities from identifying or handing over those responsible for attacks.
This silence creates a protective shield around perpetrators, allowing them to strike repeatedly without consequences. The result is a dangerous cycle: attacks occur, blame is assigned externally, and the real actors remain embedded within the communities.
There have been instances where youth leaders publicly blamed Fulani groups for atrocities even in cases where the victims themselves were Fulani. Such claims stretch logic and risk undermining credibility. The argument that a group would attack itself, rustle or poison its own livestock, and transport it into rival territory solely to assign blame raises fundamental questions.
While misinformation is a powerful tool in conflict, it cannot fully explain away patterns that are repeatedly documented by security agencies. These narratives, rather than promoting justice, deepen mistrust and inflame passions, making reconciliation more difficult.
This cycle has blurred the lines between victim and aggressor. Communities that mourn their dead today may be accused of launching attacks tomorrow. In such an environment, truth becomes contested, and justice becomes subjective. A herder is killed, reprisal follows.
Miners are attacked, revenge is planned.
Cattle are rustled, retaliation is inevitable. Each incident becomes both consequence and justification.
Intelligence gathering, the backbone of effective security operations depends heavily on local input. When communities withhold information, protect suspects, or distort facts, security agencies are left to operate in the dark.
This creates gaps that perpetrators exploit.
Blaming the government alone, without acknowledging this dynamic, presents an incomplete picture of the crisis.
Security forces have remained active, responding to distress calls, conducting patrols, and attempting to stabilize volatile areas. Yet, their presence has not been enough to stop the killings. The reality is that no amount of military deployment can fully secure a population that is unwilling to cooperate.
One of the most dangerous drivers of the conflict is impunity. For decades, perpetrators of violence in Plateau have rarely been brought to justice. Killings are recorded, condemned, and eventually forgotten until the next incident occurs.
Community, religious and youths leaders, who should serve as stabilizing forces, are increasingly unable to control armed youth groups. Such interventions are rare and often overshadowed by more powerful forces of anger and revenge. In many cases the leaders are the once directly fueling the crises and encouraging the youths to take up arms to carry out reprisals attacks.
The nature of the Plateau conflict makes it resistant to purely military solutions. This is not a conventional war with clear battle lines. It is a fragmented conflict driven by local grievances, economic competition, and historical mistrust.
Calls for heavy-handed interventions, including suggestions of foreign military involvement, fail to recognize this reality. Force alone cannot resolve a conflict that is rooted in social and communal dynamics.
If Plateau is to break free from this cycle, the first step must be honesty. The violence must be acknowledged for what it is a series of interconnected attacks involving multiple actors, not a one-sided campaign. Only then can meaningful solutions emerge.
This is not just a story of victims and aggressors. It is a story of a society caught in a loop of vengeance, where yesterday’s victim can become today’s perpetrator. Until the truth is confronted in its entirety without bias, without omission peace will remain elusive.
The government must move beyond reactive security measures and take decisive steps to address the root causes of the conflict. This includes ensuring accountability, strengthening intelligence capabilities, and facilitating genuine dialogue among communities.Equally important is the role of local leaders. They must rise above partisan interests and work actively to restrain their followers, promote peace, and reject all forms of violence regardless of who commits them.
Zagazola Makama is a Counter Insurgency Expert and Security Analyst in the Lake Chad Region
Why truth, not narratives, will end the killings in Plateau’s endless cycle of bloodshed
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