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War Against Niger: Why Nigeria Should Look Before It Leaps

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War Against Niger: Why Nigeria Should Look Before It Leaps

By Zagazola Makama

Carefully observing the geopolitical map of AFRICA, WAGNER Operation and disassociation from WEST hegemony straddles a straight line from coasts of SENEGAL to SUDAN where a geo-strategic interest lies.

It appears the diversion is in AFRICA, which has become the proxy area for the UKRAINE – RUSSIA war.

In retrospect, the campaign against WESTERN hegemony, especially FRANCE, had eaten deep into AFRICA and has potentially no reverse, as calls rose for, first, AFRICAN leadership to own their countries’ wealth and, second, a united AFRICA.

Equally, WAGNER, an extension of RUSSIAN military diplomacy, spearheaded a Psychological Operations measure to divert attention of NATO and other WESTERN powers’ attention as EUROPE continues to become tense over the UKRAINE – RUSSIA conflict.

For now, WESTERN dominance is on the verge of pulling more resources to maintain relations with AFRICA.

Whatever the consequences, a RUSSIA-led support virus had already been inoculated into the streams of support by part of AFRICA to take sides.

This, therefore, forms the context in which the buildup of tension between the NIGERIA-led ECOWAS and NIGER REPUBLIC over the recent coup overthrowing the Mohammed Bazoum-led democratically elected government of the West African francophone nation should be viewed.

The Bola Ahmed Tinubu-led government of Nigeria seems hell-bent on leading the combined ECOWAS military to storm Niamey, root out the coupists, free Bazoum from their captivity and reinstate him president of NIGER.

There are numerous salient facts with regard to NIGERIA-NIGER Republic relations that deserve crucial consideration before the ECOWAS forces pounce on NIGER.

This consideration is imperative for NIGERIA to avoid being deceived into a proxy war that will, in the long run, cause its drastic and cataclysmic fall from the enviable heights of West African Giant and, possibly, African leadership.

The most-startling of these facts.

Seven states in NIGERIA, stretching from the North-West to the North-East geopolitical zones border NIGER. The peoples of these states savor centuries-old sociocultural affinity and amity with the peoples of the southern flank of NIGER, contributing substantially to the economies of the countries for ages.

These close ties are about to be crushed by the ECOWAS forces.

Intelligence suggests despite sanctions by ECOWAS, BENIN Republic has opened up borders to NIGER, implying its disagreement with the gang up measure against its neighbor. Suspicion places NIGERIA in tight corners as pro-WEST to act spontaneously against its neighbor.

This is possibly as part of WAGNER psychological Operation to seek further movement of the PMC personnel into NIAMEY in part and WEST AFRICA as a whole.

NIGERIA-NIGER relations have always been excellent up until now. For instance, NIGER is always actively in support of NIGERIA during Counter insurgency Operations of the Multinational Joint Task Force and provides ISR as well as Air Interdiction during most missions.

Military operations, economic transfer and numerous other friendly relations exist between both nations.

The coup may have changed the politics but has not disemboweled the close ties or similarities in cultural and social identity between NIGERIA and her neighbors.

It is assumed the target to frustrate NIGERIA’s key role economically, politically and militarily after solely containing more than a decade old insurgency is likely.

Hence, NIGERIA should continue a broader defense diplomacy with its neighbors to maintain a steady course in foreign policy.

The strong ties NIGERIA with its neighbors should be used to overcome plans to utilize AFRICA as grounds for proxy war between the WESTERN and EASTERN powers.

There is a need for NIGERIA to showcase the big-brother position in aligning with AFRICA’s unity and suggest to her neighbors that despite all shortcomings, measures other than coup may not be a solution.

There is a need to call on the leadership of MALI, BURKINA FASO, GUINEA and others to realize support for one another as well as to devise means of solving the major issues of developing strategies against terrorism and western hegemony.

It will, therefore, be unfortunate to deploy force to NIGER.

Information suggests GHANA, TOGO, GAMBIA and LIBERIA have said they will not deploy troops to NIGER. More so, Mali, Burkina Faso, and Guinea, three West African nations, have backed the coup leaders in Niger, a move that poses a threat to regional stability. this is a trap for NIGERIA.

NIGERIA, for her own good, must not fall into this trap. It could be disastrous for, first, its status in the West African region and, indeed, the entire African continent; and, second, its existence as one enviably politically, diplomatically and economically powerful entity in global affairs.

The possible abstention of some of the West African nations from the impending war is not because ECOWAS does not have the capability to deploy a force to NIGER, but because other members will not commit as much resources as expected.

Moreover, ECOWAS will have to explain why it didn’t deploy similar forces to BURKINA FASO, MALI and GUINEA where their military also toppled democratic governments.

Generally, it will be a big strategic miscalculation for NIGERIA to commit to such externalities, with the several internal challenges facing the country.

A diplomatic solution to NIGER’s problem will be the best at this moment. NIGERIA has nothing to prove to the world except its proficiency in diplomatic relations and standing tall in might as a big brother. NIGERIA’s military diplomacy should play a key role in turning key issues.

NIGERIA faces devastating consequences should the war be carried out against NIGER.

Nigeria is strategically positioned into a geographical zone that it can never Win a War on the NIGER REPUBLIC even if the Military Junta is chased out of Niamey.

The following are definite to be the price of the aggression on the NIGER REPUBLIC by ECOWAS by the West African allied forces:

First: Losing President Bazoum. For sure, the first consequences of the War on NIGER is that NIGERIA will only have the corpse of MOHAMMED BAZOUM whom PRESIDENT TINUBU led ECOWAS is so anxious to reinstate immediately Niamey is captured.

Is Nigeria or any fighter for the restoration of democracy ready for that to happen?

Second: More enmity will emanate against Nigeria within the West African region. The country will have more regional enemies than friends because all the Countries bordering NIGER REPUBLIC will not condone the aggression even if they restrain from attacking Nigeria in defense of their ally in the protection of their sovereignty.

Third: Diplomatic relations among West African nations could worsen, leading to the possible collapse of ECOWAS. This situation would be catastrophic to the economy of the region as free movement of its citizens becomes a big regional threat. Already Niger Republic is hosting over 300,000 Nigerian Refugees in Diffa, Bosso and Tumour. These IDPs are already facing stigmatization and humiliation from their host and soon they may be asked to leave.

Four: There could be a proliferation of unprecedentedly frightening forms of terrorism as a result of the presence of huge amounts of Bõko Harām Insurgents across the borders of the two countries that stretched into Mali, Burkina Faso up to the Sene-Gambian Region. Fledgeling or the collapse of ECOWAS would facilitate the infiltration of terrorist groups into the countries much easier than what happened to ISIS’s cross border operations in Syria, Iraq, Turkey and parts of Egypt’s Sinai mountainous region.

In this scenario, more massive funding will be made towards sponsoring “Terrorists Groups”, thus creating more others by International Agencies who have been enemies to “Global Peace” to control sensitively viable areas of economic importance for eventually ceaseless attacks such as the ongoing “Armed Banditry and Kidnappings” that are rampant in the Region.

Five: Inflation and economic recession is definitely going to hit Nigeria immediately the war starts, causing millions of people across the region to lose their jobs, causing high cost of living for the ordinary citizens of both countries.

Six: Famine and rampant deaths would be inevitable as a result of the hampering of all agricultural activities, with the war intensifying where massive hectares of land shall remain without being harvested for more than 75 percent of the region in the same technical manner Bõko Harām disrupts farming for than a decade throughout most parts of the North-East.

Seven: Massive migration across West Africa, and, possibly, between West Africa and other contiguous regions of the African continent would take place as refugees from both sides keep flooding the Sub-saharan region.

With Nigeria presently finding it difficult to manage the growing humanitarian crisis with millions of its Internally Displaced Persons (IDPS) due to terrorism and banditry, another unsustainable chaotic conditions will be artificially created for it to handle.

For sure, when the drums of War are beaten and the planned aggression on the NIGER REPUBLIC commences, NORTHERN NIGERIA’s (Arēwa) Region, from Gamboru to Kamba, From ILLELA/JIBIYA/MAI-ADUWA/MAIGATARI to OTURKPO would be submerged in total full scale insecurity.

This could threaten the existence of NORTHERN NIGERIA. Once NORTHERN NIGERIA is gone, the official Federation of what is known as Nigeria would be “Badly Bargained”, forever.

Nigeria should look before it leaps.
To be forewarned is to be forearmed!

Zagazola is a Counter-Insurgency expert and security analyst in the Lake Chad region.

War Against Niger: Why Nigeria Should Look Before It Leaps

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Operation Hadin Kai debunks Fake news on ISWAP enclave in Tuba, Jere in Borno

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Operation Hadin Kai debunks Fake news on ISWAP enclave in Tuba, Jere in Borno

By: Zagazola Makama

Reports circulating online claiming that Boko Haram and ISWAP insurgents have established a new enclave in Tuba, Jere Local Government Area, have been strongly condemned by military sources in Operation HADIN KAI, describing the claims as false, misleading, and deliberately designed to spread fear.

According to the sources, recent operations conducted by troops of 212 Battalion, Operation HADIN KAI, across Tuba and surrounding areas including Dusuman, Jabarmari, Gongulong, Ngom, and along the Maiduguri-Monguno and Maiduguri-Mafa highways, found no evidence of any terrorist enclave, concentration, or movement as claimed in the reports.

The military sources expressed outrage over the circulation of such unverified stories, noting that some media platforms appear to be serving interests contrary to national security and public safety. “These claims are false, sensational, and do not reflect the reality on the ground,” the sources said.

They pointed to previous instances of deliberate exaggeration, where some outlets reported that 40 or even 100 soldiers were killed during attacks in Konduga figures that were never corroborated by even the insurgents themselves. Another example cited involved reports claiming Boko Haram had taken over Ngoshe, only for videos of troops firmly securing the area to emerge, exposing the lies. Despite this, some media still went ahead to report that Army has recaptured Ngoshe without providing further details of how the Operation tool place.

“Who are these media outlets serving?” the military sources demanded. “Are they advancing national or public interest, or are they actively trying to support the terrorists to disintegrate the country through fake narratives?”

While acknowledging operational challenges in the theatre, the military sources emphasized that troops continue to maintain operational dominance, safeguard residents, and protect highways and strategic installations across the North East region.

In other countries, citizens rally around their military to support them in countering violent extremism. Hardly will you find active citizens working as though they are tool of terrorists propaganda. They warned that unverified reports undermine troop morale, endanger civilians, and distort public perception of ongoing security efforts in the country.

Journalists and media platforms were urged to exercise professionalism, verify facts before publication, and avoid being used as instruments of destabilisation. Residents were advised to rely only on credible sources and report suspicious activities to security agencies.

The military remains committed to defeating terrorism, ensuring stability in Borno State and the broader North-East, and will not be distracted or demoralized by falsehoods masquerading as news.

Operation Hadin Kai debunks Fake news on ISWAP enclave in Tuba, Jere in Borno

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Fresh tension in ISWAP camps as top commander Modu Kunduli neutralised by troops in Borno

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Fresh tension in ISWAP camps as top commander Modu Kunduli neutralised by troops in Borno

By: Zagazola Makama

Fresh tension and anxiety have gripped Islamic State West Africa Province (ISWAP) camps following the neutralisation of one of its top commanders, Modu Kunduli, by troops of Operation HADIN KAI during a failed assault on the Army Forward Operation Base in Mayanti village, Bama Local Government Area of Borno State.

Sources say the late commander met his end during a last week’s failed mission targeting the Army Forward Operation Base at Mayanti village. His death is expected to create a significant leadership vacuum within ISWAP, particularly in Sambisa Forest, given his mastery of local terrain and fluency in Fulfulde, Kanuri, and Marghi.

Zagazola report that Kunduli, a high-profile ISWAP commander, had been orchestrating attacks across Borno and Adamawa states for the past ten years, dating back to the era of Boko Haram founder Abubakar Shekau. He joined ISWAP shortly after the death of Shekau in 2021z

He was notorious for terrorising communities in Askira Uba Local Government Area, including Lassa, Multaku, Uvu, Wamdeo, and Ruimirgo villages. Reports also indicate his involvement in attacks on Vita, Yamtage, Izge, Pulka, Warabe, Limankara, and Ubawa villages in Gwoza Local Government Area.

Beyond Borno, Kunduli held operational control over Galta, a border community linking Adamawa and Borno states, overseeing large swathes of territory in Madagali and Michika Local Government Areas of Adamawa. His deep knowledge of the Sambisa Forest terrain, coupled with his leadership capabilities, earned him the command of several ISWAP branches across the region.

Zagazola note that Kunduli’s elimination represents a major blow to ISWAP’s operational capabilities in the north-east, disrupting the group’s command structure and its ability to coordinate attacks across Borno and Adamawa states.

Troops of Operation HADIN KAI continue to exploit the area and maintain aggressive patrols to prevent remaining insurgents from regrouping.

Military sources have assured residents that the offensive will continue until the remnants of the terrorist group are decisively neutralised.

Fresh tension in ISWAP camps as top commander Modu Kunduli neutralised by troops in Borno

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Lake Chad Basin Commission appoints Amb. Ibrahim Babani as Executive Secretary

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Lake Chad Basin Commission appoints Amb. Ibrahim Babani as Executive Secretary

By: Zagazola Makama

The designation of Amb. Ibrahim Babani as the new Executive Secretary of the Lake Chad Basin Commission (LCBC) has sparked fresh expectations for stronger regional cooperation, environmental recovery and security stabilisation across the Lake Chad region.

Babani’s appointment was announced at the 71st Ordinary Session of the Council of Ministers of the LCBC, held on March 6, 2026, in N’Djamena, Chad, where ministers and commissioners from member states deliberated on strategies to address the region’s pressing challenges.

The meeting, chaired by Mr Passale Kanabe Marcelin, Chad’s Minister of Water and Energy Resources and current Chairman of the LCBC Council of Ministers, brought together representatives of the commission’s member states, including Nigeria, Niger, Cameroon, Chad and the Central African Republic.

Nigeria was represented by Prof. Joseph Terlumun Utsev, Minister of Water Resources and Sanitation and First Commissioner of Nigeria to the LCBC, alongside Mrs Bianca Ojukwu, Minister of State for Foreign Affairs and Second Commissioner.

The Lake Chad Basin Commission remains one of Africa’s most important regional bodies, responsible for coordinating water resource management, environmental restoration and socio-economic development among countries sharing the Lake Chad Basin.

The basin supports more than 40 million people across the five member states, whose livelihoods depend largely on fishing, farming and pastoral activities linked to the shrinking lake.

Over the past decades, however, the region has faced severe environmental degradation, climate change impacts and the devastating effects of the ISWAP/Boko Haram insurgency, which has displaced millions and disrupted economic activities. These complex challenges have made the role of the LCBC increasingly strategic in driving recovery, stabilisation and resilience across the basin.

Stakeholders believe Babani’s emergence as Executive Secretary comes at a critical time when the commission is intensifying efforts to implement several large-scale regional programmes.

These include the Regional Strategy for Stabilisation, Recovery and Resilience (RS-SRR) for areas affected by Boko Haram violence, as well as projects aimed at ecological restoration and socio-economic reintegration of vulnerable populations.

During the meeting, commissioners reviewed progress in implementing the strategy and emphasised the need to accelerate key initiatives, including the development of a regional transitional justice policy and improved coordination of stabilisation interventions.

They also recommended the organisation of the sixth edition of the Governors’ Forum in Niger, alongside meetings of traditional rulers and civil society organisations to strengthen community-based recovery efforts.

Prior to his appointment, the incoming Executive Secretary of the LCBC, Amb. Ibrahim Babani, served as Director of External Affairs (DEA) at the Office of the National Security Adviser (ONSA) and also doubles as Head of Mission (HoM) of the Multinational Joint Task Force (MNJTF), bringing extensive security and diplomatic experience to his new role.

Babani’s leadership will therefore be critical in coordinating these initiatives and ensuring that they translate into tangible benefits for affected communities. Another priority expected to dominate Babani’s tenure is the restoration of the Lake Chad ecosystem, which has shrunk drastically over the past half century due to climate change, drought and unsustainable water use.

At the session, commissioners reviewed progress on the Inter-Basin Water Transfer Project, a major initiative designed to replenish the lake by transferring water from other basins.

The Council of Ministers commended the LCBC Executive Secretariat for successfully mobilising funding from the African Development Bank for the project and urged faster implementation of technical support programmes aimed at restoring the lake’s ecological and economic functions. Environmental experts believe that restoring the lake is crucial for reducing poverty, preventing conflicts over natural resources and addressing some of the root causes of insecurity in the region.

The Ministers also reviewed progress on the Lake Chad Region Recovery and Development Project (PROLAC) and encouraged continued engagement with the World Bank to secure financing for a second phase of the initiative.

Similarly, they called for further advocacy with the African Development Bank to support the second phase of the Project to Support the Socio-Economic Reintegration of Vulnerable Groups in the Lake Chad Basin (PARSEBALT).

Both initiatives focus on rebuilding infrastructure, supporting livelihoods and reintegrating vulnerable groups affected by years of insurgency and displacement. These programmes complement military efforts against extremist groups by addressing the social and economic conditions that fuel instability.

Despite its strategic importance, the LCBC continues to face financial constraints that could hamper implementation of its programmes.

During the session, commissioners raised concerns about the accumulation of unpaid contributions by member states and urged governments to settle their arrears and ensure regular payment of statutory dues.

They also mandated the chairman of the Council of Ministers to escalate the issue to the highest political authorities within member states to guarantee sustainable funding for the commission’s activities.

The council approved the commission’s 2026 Annual Work Plan and Budget, estimated at 15.13 billion CFA francs, with over 12.63 billion CFA francs allocated to development programmes and 2.50 billion CFA francs for operational costs.

The meeting also adopted key annexes to the Lake Chad Basin Water Charter, including frameworks governing the management of water infrastructure and procedures for notification of planned measures affecting shared water resources.

Commissioners further endorsed a Five-Year Investment Plan and directed the Executive Secretariat to organise a donors’ roundtable to mobilise international support.

Babani’s leadership comes at a time when the Lake Chad region is at a crossroads. While military operations have significantly weakened insurgent groups in recent years, millions of people still face humanitarian challenges, environmental degradation and fragile livelihoods.

The effectiveness of the LCBC in coordinating development, environmental restoration and stabilisation initiatives could determine whether the region moves toward lasting peace and prosperity.

The Council of Ministers concluded the meeting by expressing appreciation to development partners for their continued support and announcing that the next budgetary session will be held in Bangui, Central African Republic.

For many stakeholders in the Lake Chad Basin, the appointment of Babani represents not only a change in leadership but also a renewed opportunity to accelerate recovery, strengthen regional cooperation and secure the future of one of Africa’s most vital ecosystems.

Zagazola is a Counter Insurgency Expert and Security Analyst in the Lake Chad regional

Lake Chad Basin Commission appoints Amb. Ibrahim Babani as Executive Secretary

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